This book presents an innovative demographic toolkit known as
the ProFamy extended cohort-component method for the projection of
household structures and living arrangements with empirical
applications to the United States, the largest developed country,
and China, the largest developing country. The ProFamy method uses
demographic rates as inputs to project detailed distributions of
household types and sizes, living arrangements of all household
members, and population by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and
urban/rural residence at national, sub-national, or small area
levels. It can also project elderly care needs and costs, pension
deficits, and household consumption. The ProFamy method presented
herein has substantial merits compared to the traditional headship
rate method, which is not linked to demographic rates and projects
limited household types without other household members than
"heads."
The book consists of four parts. The first part presents the
methodology, data, estimation issues, and empirical assessments.
The next parts present applications in the United States (part two)
and China (part three), concerning demographic, social, economic,
and business research; policy analysis, including forecasting
future trends of household type/size, elderly living arrangements,
disability, and home-based care costs, and household consumption
including housing and vehicles. The fourth part includes a user's
guide for the ProFamy software to project households, living
arrangements, and home-based consumptions.
This book offers an invaluable toolkit for researchers, analysts
and students in academic, public and private businesses, whose work
is related to levels and rates of change in households, population
and consumption patterns.
General
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