This book highlights research on the behavioral biases affecting judgmental accuracy in judgmental forecasting and showcases the state-of-the-art in judgment-based predictive analytics. In recent years, technological advancements have made it possible to use predictive analytics to exploit highly complex (big) data resources. Consequently, modern forecasting methodologies are based on sophisticated algorithms from the domain of machine learning and deep learning. However, research shows that in the majority of industry contexts, human judgment remains an indispensable component of the managerial forecasting process. This book discusses ways in which decision-makers can address human behavioral issues in judgmental forecasting.  The book begins by introducing readers to the notion of human-machine interactions. This includes a look at the necessity of managerial judgment in situations where organizations commonly have algorithmic decision support models at their disposal. The remainder of the book is divided into three parts, with Part I focusing on the role of individual-level judgment in the design and utilization of algorithmic models. The respective chapters cover individual-level biases such as algorithm aversion, model selection criteria, model-judgment aggregation issues and implications for behavioral change. In turn, Part II addresses the role of collective judgments in predictive analytics. The chapters focus on issues related to talent spotting, performance-weighted aggregation, and the wisdom of timely crowds. Part III concludes the book by shedding light on the importance of contextual factors as critical determinants of forecasting performance. Its chapters discuss the usefulness of scenario analysis, the role of external factors in time series forecasting and introduce the idea of mindful organizing as an approach to creating more sustainable forecasting practices in organizations.

A better understanding of regime changes, and their drivers, is vital to understanding the root causes of conflict and instability. In doing so, national and international actors can develop appropriate strategies to address, curb and prevent escalations of violence when these transitions occur. This innovative book explores the motivations and impacts of regime change and political transition in the contemporary era. Systematically examining the drivers, formats and long term impacts of transitions, the contributors seek to identify patterns, commonalities, and disjunctures between them. Bringing together leading scholars and practitioners with longstanding relationships to the conflicts they have covered, this book provides systematic cross-case examinations of regime change. It examines the structural and immediate triggers of transitions both external and internal, as well as shedding light on the ways in which everyday life is changed by them --? for better or worse. Providing a framework for typological and comparative analysis, this book provides ontological and epistemological perspectives on 14 case studies of regime change following civil wars, secessionist conflicts, popular revolutions, military rule and foreign intervention. This book is a vital tool for academics and students of political science, development, history, regional, peace and conflict studies. Reflecting on regime change processes spanning different regions and types of transition, The Elgar Companion to Post Conflict Transition is an accessible way to cover key debates. Contributors include: A.-G. Abdulai, B. Austin, R.K. Bhandari, E. Blakaj, U. Bozkurt, G. Crawford, G. Culaj, N. Dzuverovic, C. Emery, B. Engels, G. Gabusi, H.J. Giessmann, F. Kuhn, R. Mac Ginty, A. Mazrreku, S. Pogodda, R. Read, S. Robins, S. Ruzza, C. Seifert, G. Tepsic, M. van Leeuwen, A. Weber

Teaching Fairy Tales edited by Nancy L. Canepa brings together scholars who have contributed to the field of fairy-tale studies since its origins. This collection offers information on materials, critical approaches and ideas, and pedagogical resources for the teaching of fairy tales in one comprehensive source that will further help bring fairy-tale studies into the academic mainstream. The volume begins by posing some of the big questions that stand at the forefront of fairy-tale studies: How should we define the fairy tale? What is the ""classic"" fairy tale? Does it make sense to talk about a fairy-tale canon? The first chapter includes close readings of tales and their variants, in order to show how fairy tales aren't simple, moralizing, and/or static narratives. The second chapter focuses on essential moments and documents in fairy-tale history, investigating how we gain unique perspectives on cultural history through reading fairy tales. Contributors to chapter 3 argue that encouraging students to approach fairy tales critically, either through well-established lenses or newer ways of thinking, enables them to engage actively with material that can otherwise seem over-familiar. Chapter 4 makes a case for using fairy tales to help students learn a foreign language. Teaching Fairy Tales also includes authors' experiences of successful hands-on classroom activities with fairy tales, syllabi samples from a range of courses, and testimonies from storytellers that inspire students to reflect on the construction and transmission of narrative by becoming tale-tellers themselves. Teaching Fairy Tales crosses disciplinary, historical, and national boundaries to consider the fairy-tale corpus integrally and from a variety of perspectives. Scholars from many different academic areas will use this volume to explore and implement new aspects of the field of fairy-tale studies in their teaching and research.

History of full of liars. Not just little-white-telling liars, but big-honkin', whopper-telling liars - people who can convince us that even the most improbable, outrageous, nonsensical stories are true. And the worst part is that we believe them. Whoppers tells the story of history's greatest liars and the lies they told, providing a mix of narrative profiles of super-famous liars, lies, and/or hoaxes, as well as more obscure episodes.

This open access book provides a broad range of insights on market engineering and information management. It covers topics like auctions, stock markets, electricity markets, the sharing economy, information and emotions in markets, smart decision-making in cities and other systems, and methodological approaches to conceptual modeling and taxonomy development. Overall, this book is a source of inspiration for everybody working on the vision of advancing the science of engineering markets and managing information for contributing to a bright, sustainable, digital world. Markets are powerful and extremely efficient mechanisms for coordinating individuals' and organizations' behavior in a complex, networked economy. Thus, designing, monitoring, and regulating markets is an essential task of today's society. This task does not only derive from a purely economic point of view. Leveraging market forces can also help to tackle pressing social and environmental challenges. Moreover, markets process, generate, and reveal information. This information is a production factor and a valuable economic asset. In an increasingly digital world, it is more essential than ever to understand the life cycle of information from its creation and distribution to its use. Both markets and the flow of information should not arbitrarily emerge and develop based on individual, profit-driven actors. Instead, they should be engineered to serve best the whole society's goals. This motivation drives the research fields of market engineering and information management. With this book, the editors and authors honor Professor Dr. Christof Weinhardt for his enormous and ongoing contribution to market engineering and information management research and practice. It was presented to him on the occasion of his sixtieth birthday in April 2021. Thank you very much, Christof, for so many years of cooperation, support, inspiration, and friendship.

In an enlightening dialogue with Descartes, Kant, Husserl and Gadamer, Professor Seifert argues that the original inspiration of phenomenology was nothing other than the primordial insight of philosophy itself, the foundation of philosophia perennis. His radical rethinking of the phenomenological method results in a universal, objectivist philosophy in direct continuity with Plato, Aristotle and Augustine. In order to validate the classical claim to know autonomous being, the author defends Husserl's methodological principle "Back to things themselves" from empiricist and idealist critics, including the later Husserl, and replies to the arguments of Kant which attempt to discredit the knowability of things in themselves. Originally published in 1982, this book culminates in a phenomenological and critical unfolding of the Augustinian cogito, as giving access to immutable truth about necessary essences and the real existence of personal being.

The cyclic purine nucleotides 3',5'-cAMP and 3',5'-cGMP are well-established second messengers. cGMP has recently been covered in a volume of the Handbook of Experimental Pharmacology (volume 191). In addition to 3',5'-cAMP and 3',5'-cGMP, so-called non-canonical cyclic nucleotides exist. These comprise the cyclic pyrimidine nucleotides 3',5'-cCMP and 3',5'-cUMP, the purine nucleotide 3',5'-cIMP, the 2',3'-nucleoside monophosphates and cyclic dinucleotides. In this volume of the Handbook of Pharmacology, word-leading experts in the field summarize our current knowledge on these non-canonical cyclic nucleotides, discuss open questions, future research directions and the pharmacotherapeutic implications. Special emphasis will be given to the emerging roles of 3',5'-cCMP and 3',5'-cUMP as second messengers with regard to generators, effectors, biological functions, inactivation and bacterial toxins. The role of 3',5'-cIMP as potential second messenger will also be critically discussed. Furthermore, we will consider transport of cyclic nucleotides and their potential role as first messengers. The role of the cyclic dinucleotide cGAMP in the immune system will covered, too. Lastly, the book will present important methodological aspects ranging from mass-spectrometric methods for cyclic nucleotide detection to the synthesis of nucleotide analogs as experimental tools and holistic methods for analysis of cyclic nucleotide effects.

"This is an excellent reference and guide to intervention for academics, clinicians, and educations concerned with understanding and decreasing violence."--Choice: Current Reviews for Academic Libraries

In the U.S., youth violence is the second leading cause of death for young people between the ages of 10 and 24. This volume, authored by a noted psychotherapist with more than 30 years of experience in family violence, examines recent violent episodes perpetrated by young offenders in order to understand their root causes and to disseminate current prevention and treatment methods through a multidisciplinary lens.

The book addresses the theoretical underpinnings of youth violence from the perspectives of psychology and neurobiology, describes different types of violence, includes the latest research on "what works" in prevention and treatment, and examines connections between substance abuse, familial and community violence, and school failure in promoting violence in adolescents. "Youth Violence" is a comprehensive yet highly readable volume for mental health and social service professionals who work with youth and families, and violence researchers. Key Features:

Provides real life case studies from Virginia Tech, Columbine, and other recent violent incidents perpetrated by young people Written by an author with over 30 years of experience in youth violence and creator of the premier risk assessment test in use today Offers the latest findings on "what works" in prevention and treatment

The term "method" of realist phenomenology and philosophy can refer to three kinds of things which are being explored extensively in this work: (1) Kinds of philosophical knowledge used to return to things themselves: intellectual "vision" of necessary intelligible essences, insights into necessary states of affairs, knowledge of less than necessary essences, knowledge of existence as such, of the ego cogitans and of a concretely existing world, other persons, and the absolute being, deductive forms of reasoning, and others. (2) Ways to achieve such knowledge: such as various types of distinctions, asking proper questions, correct use of analogies, and replies to objections. (3) Finally, these methods include several "tricks" and devices such as methodic doubt and epoche; these are subordinated to the other methods, and neither necessary nor universal tools of all philosophical knowledge.

This title provides a survey on approaches to information systems supporting sustainable development in the private or public sector. It also documents and encourages the first steps of environmental information processing towards this more comprehensive goal.

The number of students who wish to learn about entrepreneurship and actively engage in entrepreneurial activities - either by creating their own companies or by spurring innovation within a large organization - has grown greatly in recent years. Motivating engineers and scientists to become entrepreneurial has particular appeal in light of the abundance of technological knowledge that lurks hidden in today's research institutes and technology-based enterprises, waiting for commercialization.

However the expanding number of teaching programs fail to address the particular challenges and opportunities or starting up viable businesses based on science and engineering.

Nurturing Science-based Ventures: An International Case Perspective presents case studies of more than 30 businesses in scientific fields such as biotechnology, biomedicine, high-tech engineering and information technology. The case studies are arranged in modules tracking the typical life cycle of creating and growing new ventures. The book is a value-adding teaching device that will greatly enhance the learning experience of future high-tech entrepreneurs. The case studies will also foster a general appreciation of technological venturing among current and future business leaders.

Module topics include recognizing and evaluating opportunities, creating viable business plans, securing financial resources, managing growth and eventually harvesting the value created. The view of large firms is also taken into account, with studies on corporate entrepreneurship and the integration of internal and external knowledge to successfully seize business opportunities. Each module of the book is completed by atopic primer and a concluding summary of key learning points.

Case studies include: Google, Logitech, adidas, Ducati, EndoArt, 4M Technologies, Novartis and Nespresso and many more university spin-offs and new start-up enterprises.

This book is written for scientists and practitioners interested in deepening their knowledge of the sustainable production of bioenergy from wood in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Utilising the value chain concept, this book outlines the necessary aspects for managing sustainable bioenergy production. A wide range of topics is covered including biomass localization, modelling and upscaling, production management in woodlands and plantations, and transport and logistics. Biomass quality and conversion pathways are examined in order to match the conversion technology with the available biomass. A section is dedicated to issues surrounding sustainability. The issues, covered in a life-cycle assessment of the bioenergy system, include socio-economic challenges, local effects on water, biodiversity, nutrient-sustainability and global impacts. Through this holistic approach and supporting examples from tropical and sub-tropical countries, the reader is guided in designing and implementing a value chain as the main management instrument for sustainable wood.

This book deals with the essential philosophical/ethical dimension that concerns the ends and goods entrusted to medicine. It shows that medicine cannot be reduced to its scientific and technical aspects and that the constitutive philosophical aspects of medicine presently are in a state of crisis.

Medicine, besides being a scientifically based art of diagnosing and curing infirmities of many kinds, also possesses an essential philosophical and ethical dimension. It turns into anti-medicine if it no longer stands in the service of those goods and ends that are entrusted to it. Their nature is in no way known by natural science but can be clarified by philosophy. Consequently, medicine suffers from philosophical diseases of different degrees of gravity if its theory and practice are based on errors about its proper ends. The cure from the life-threatening philosophical diseases of medicine lies in a critique of philosophical mistakes that influence the theory and practice of medicine and in an understanding and practical implementation of those ethically relevant goods that constitute its true ends. At a time when these goods are by no means universally recognized or embodied in laws of medicine, some basic philosophical understanding of them and of the foundations of medical ethics is urgently required. The purpose of this volume is to provide this largely neglected part of general and medical education.

Investing in Corporate Bonds and Credit Risk is a valuable tool for any corporate bond investor. All the most recent developments and strategies in investment in corporate bonds are analyzed included with qualitative and quantitative approaches. A complete and up-to-date investment process is developed through the book, using many examples taken from banking practice. The growing significance of derivative instruments and credit diversification to bond investors is also analyzed in detail. Investment professionals; Corporate finance staff; Portfolio Managers; Senior Managers; Risk Managers; Consultants; Trading and Sales Staff; Quantitative Analysts; Credit Analysts; Regulators MBA courses

The supply chain is at the heart of every successful business organization's decision-making process. This textbook explains how to create a winning supply chain management strategy by spotlighting how senior executives in European and US companies have turned their supply chains into strategic weapons designed to convert threats, risks and outside pressures into competitive advantages. Strategic Supply Chain Management contains twenty real-world cases, all of which have been field researched by a top author team and tested out in the classroom. Each case adopts an executive leadership perspective to illuminate the real dilemmas faced by managers. The authors draw on their extensive classroom and industry experience to ensure that the writing style is geared towards an executive education readership. This elite case package will provide a complete teaching resource and authentic learning experience for MBA and executive education classes in Supply Chain Management throughout the world.

Although the injunction "Know thyself" was inscribed over the site of the Delphic Oracle, the concept is of much more ancient lineage. Thousands of years ago, the wise men of the East had learned to exert authority over a broad range of bodily experiences and functions using techniques that are still taught today. But it is only in the past few decades that the West has become aware once again of the range of control that the central nervous system can maintain over sensation and body function. Medicine has moved slowly in integrating these concepts into the classic medical model of disease despite a growing body of evidence that links emotional state, thought, and imagery to immunocompetence, tissue healing, and bodily vigor. It is precisely the role of a volume such as this, reflecting a fascinating conference in Munich, to emphasize and reemphasize these ideas. We are fortunately well beyond the sterile behaviorism of Watson with its com plete negation of the significance of mental operations. But many still consider suspect those forces and mechanisms, however powerful, that seem to originate from brain-mind activity. The chapters in this book, with their emphases on the mind-body continuum as a bridge to self regulation and health, provide a modern "School of Athens" in bringing these concepts to wider acquaintance."

An attractive feature of self-regulation therapies is that, instead of doing something to the patients, they teach them to do something for them selves. Furthermore, the fact that the patient is able to do something to cope with his or her health problem can produce a significant reduction in the stress that may have contributed to that problem and in the additional stress that it produces. While the idea that the mind can playa role in the health of the body and some therapeutic techniques based on this idea are not new, remarkable scientific advances have been made recently in the area of self-regulation and health. There has been an exciting and rapidly accel erating increase in our basic science knowledge of homeostasis, or, in other words, how the body regulates itself in order to maintain health. Technical and conceptual advances are increasing our knowledge of the details of such regulation at all levels-cells, tissues, organs, organ sys tems, and the body as a whole. We are learning how the competing demands of different elements at each of these levels are adjusted by the brain, which, with its neural and humoral mechanisms, is the supreme organ of integration of the body."

The competition between European financial centres is a subject of spirited public debate. Has the introduction of the Euro undermined London's position? Does tax competition disadvantage some European centres? Should the regulation of institutional investment be changed? Is it a good policy for governments to promote their national financial centres? And would the UK joining the European monetary union threaten the position of other European centres? These are some of the questions confronting policymakers and industry players. This book provides a firm empirical basis for examining these issues and provides a means to compare the efficiency, performance and future potential of the main European financial centres.

The nitrides and carbides of boron and silicon are proving to be an excellent choice when selecting materials for the design of devices that are to be employed under particularly demanding environmental and thermal con- tions. The high degree of cross-linking, due to the preferred coordination numbers of the predominantly covalently bonded constituents equalling or exceeding three, lends these non-oxidic ceramics a high kinetic stability, and is regarded as the microscopic origin of their impressive thermal and mechanical durability. Thus it does not come as a surprise that the chemistry, the physical properties and the engineering of the corresponding binary, ternary, and even quaternary compounds have been the subject of intensive and sustained efforts in research and development. In the five reviews presented in the volumes 101 and 102 of "Structure and Bonding" an attempt has been made to cover both the essential and the most recent advances achieved in this particular field of materials research. The scope of the individual contributions is such as to address both graduate students, specializing in ceramic materials, and all scientists in academia or industry dealing with materials research and development. Each review provides, in its introductory part, the chemical, physical and, to some extent, historical background of the respective material, and then focuses on the most relevant and the most recent achievements.

In the latter half of the 1800s, widespread suspicion and anxiety emerged when wives of all ages and social status were accused of killing their husbands with poison. However, what seemed like a massive spike in murderous wives across the United Kingdom and United States may not have been a spike at all, but rather a poison panic caused by hungry newspapers and mass hysteria. This work explores the stories of several high-profile cases of women on trial for murdering their husbands with poison. Lust, money and power were often central to the accusations, and the sensational news coverage set off a century-long witch hunt. No woman was safe from suspicion during this untold chapter in the history of true crime.

Driven by rapidly changing business environments and increasingly demanding consumers, many organizations are searching for new ways to achieve and retain a competitive advantage via customer intimacy and CRM. In this context, new strategic frameworks and cooperation with everybody along the whole value chain are needed to allow managers to deal with the changes in shopping patterns of consumers. This book presents a new strategic framework that has been tested successfully with various global companies. New management concepts such as Collaborative Forecasting and Replenishment, CRM, Category Management, and Mass Customization are integrated into one holistic approach with a view to jointly develop customer bonding and loyalty. Experts from companies like McKinsey, Procter&Gamble, Accenture, and AC Nielsen, as well as authors from renowned academic institutions, offer valuable insights on how to redesign organizations for the future.

This open access book provides a solution theory for time-dependent partial differential equations, which classically have not been accessible by a unified method. Instead of using sophisticated techniques and methods, the approach is elementary in the sense that only Hilbert space methods and some basic theory of complex analysis are required. Nevertheless, key properties of solutions can be recovered in an elegant manner. Moreover, the strength of this method is demonstrated by a large variety of examples, showing the applicability of the approach of evolutionary equations in various fields. Additionally, a quantitative theory for evolutionary equations is developed. The text is self-contained, providing an excellent source for a first study on evolutionary equations and a decent guide to the available literature on this subject, thus bridging the gap to state-of-the-art mathematical research.