A clear understanding of what we know, don't know, and can't know should guide any reasonable approach to managing financial risk, yet the most widely used measure in finance today--Value at Risk, or VaR--reduces these risks to a single number, creating a false sense of security among risk managers, executives, and regulators. This book introduces a more realistic and holistic framework called "KuU"--the "K"nown, the "u"nknown, and the "U"nknowable--that enables one to conceptualize the different kinds of financial risks and design effective strategies for managing them. Bringing together contributions by leaders in finance and economics, this book pushes toward robustifying policies, portfolios, contracts, and organizations to a wide variety of "KuU" risks. Along the way, the strengths and "limitations" of "quantitative" risk management are revealed.

In addition to the editors, the contributors are Ashok Bardhan, Dan Borge, Charles N. Bralver, Riccardo Colacito, Robert H. Edelstein, Robert F. Engle, Charles A. E. Goodhart, Clive W. J. Granger, Paul R. Kleindorfer, Donald L. Kohn, Howard Kunreuther, Andrew Kuritzkes, Robert H. Litzenberger, Benoit B. Mandelbrot, David M. Modest, Alex Muermann, Mark V. Pauly, Til Schuermann, Kenneth E. Scott, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Richard J. Zeckhauser.Introduces a new risk-management paradigm Features contributions by leaders in finance and economics Demonstrates how "killer risks" are often more economic than statistical, and crucially linked to incentives Shows how to invest and design policies amid financial uncertainty

In this classic work, John Steinbruner argues that the time is ripe for exploration of a new theoretical perspective on the decision-making process in government. He suggests that the cybernetic theory of decision as developed in such diverse fields as information theory, mathematical logic, and behavioral psychology generates a systematic but non-rational analysis that seems to explain quite naturally decisions that are puzzling when viewed from the rational perspective. When combined with the basic understanding of human mental operations developed in cognitive psychology, the cybernetic theory of decision presents a striking picture of how decision makers deal with the intense uncertainty and fundamental value conflicts that arise in bureaucratic politics. To illustrate the advantages of using cybernetic theory, Steinbruner analyzes the issue of sharing nuclear weapons among the NATO allies.

Dieser thematische Sammelband enthalt Zwischenergebnisse aus sprechwissenschaftlichen Forschungen und Praxisprojekten zur Kommunikation zwischen fruhpadagogischen Fachkraften und Kindern in Kindertageseinrichtungen. Der Fokus liegt dabei sowohl auf der Analyse des Gesprachsverhaltens von Erzieherinnen und Kindern als auch auf der Starkung von Sprachbildung und -foerderung. Untersucht wird, wie authentische Gesprache zwischen Erzieherinnen und Kindern verlaufen, worin sich Gesprachsfahigkeit von Erzieherinnen zeigt, welche Bedeutung Sprachstandsfeststellungen haben und anderes mehr. Aus den Erkenntnissen werden praxistaugliche Schulungsinhalte im Sinne einer alltagsintegrierten Sprachbildung abgeleitet.