Estimate and Interpret Results from Ordered Regression Models Ordered Regression Models: Parallel, Partial, and Non-Parallel Alternatives presents regression models for ordinal outcomes, which are variables that have ordered categories but unknown spacing between the categories. The book provides comprehensive coverage of the three major classes of ordered regression models (cumulative, stage, and adjacent) as well as variations based on the application of the parallel regression assumption. The authors first introduce the three "parallel" ordered regression models before covering unconstrained partial, constrained partial, and nonparallel models. They then review existing tests for the parallel regression assumption, propose new variations of several tests, and discuss important practical concerns related to tests of the parallel regression assumption. The book also describes extensions of ordered regression models, including heterogeneous choice models, multilevel ordered models, and the Bayesian approach to ordered regression models. Some chapters include brief examples using Stata and R. This book offers a conceptual framework for understanding ordered regression models based on the probability of interest and the application of the parallel regression assumption. It demonstrates the usefulness of numerous modeling alternatives, showing you how to select the most appropriate model given the type of ordinal outcome and restrictiveness of the parallel assumption for each variable. Web ResourceMore detailed examples are available on a supplementary website. The site also contains JAGS, R, and Stata codes to estimate the models along with syntax to reproduce the results.

A unique and comprehensive source of information, the International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics is the only international publication providing economists, planners, policy makers and business people with worldwide statistics on current performance and trends in the manufacturing sector.This is the first issue of the annual publication which succeeds the UNIDO's Handbook of Industrial Statistics and, at the same time, replaces the United Nation's Industrial Statistics Yearbook, volume I (General Industrial Statistics). Covering more than 120 countries/areas, the new version contains data which is internationally comparable and much more detailed than that supplied in previous publications. Information has been collected directly from national statistical sources and supplemented with estimates by UNIDO. The Yearbook is designed to facilitate international comparisons relating to manufacturing activity and industrial performance. It provides data which can be used to analyse patterns of growth, structural change and industrial performance in individual industries. Data on employment trends, wages and other key indicators are also presented. Finally, the detailed information presented here enables the user to study different aspects of industry which was not possible using the aggregate data previously available.

Introduction to Functional Data Analysis provides a concise textbook introduction to the field. It explains how to analyze functional data, both at exploratory and inferential levels. It also provides a systematic and accessible exposition of the methodology and the required mathematical framework. The book can be used as textbook for a semester-long course on FDA for advanced undergraduate or MS statistics majors, as well as for MS and PhD students in other disciplines, including applied mathematics, environmental science, public health, medical research, geophysical sciences and economics. It can also be used for self-study and as a reference for researchers in those fields who wish to acquire solid understanding of FDA methodology and practical guidance for its implementation. Each chapter contains plentiful examples of relevant R code and theoretical and data analytic problems. The material of the book can be roughly divided into four parts of approximately equal length: 1) basic concepts and techniques of FDA, 2) functional regression models, 3) sparse and dependent functional data, and 4) introduction to the Hilbert space framework of FDA. The book assumes advanced undergraduate background in calculus, linear algebra, distributional probability theory, foundations of statistical inference, and some familiarity with R programming. Other required statistics background is provided in scalar settings before the related functional concepts are developed. Most chapters end with references to more advanced research for those who wish to gain a more in-depth understanding of a specific topic.

This book provides an introduction to the use of statistical concepts and methods to model and analyze financial data. The ten chapters of the book fall naturally into three sections. Chapters 1 to 3 cover some basic concepts of finance, focusing on the properties of returns on an asset. Chapters 4 through 6 cover aspects of portfolio theory and the methods of estimation needed to implement that theory. The remainder of the book, Chapters 7 through 10, discusses several models for financial data, along with the implications of those models for portfolio theory and for understanding the properties of return data. The audience for the book is students majoring in Statistics and Economics as well as in quantitative fields such as Mathematics and Engineering. Readers are assumed to have some background in statistical methods along with courses in multivariate calculus and linear algebra.

The beginning of the age of artificial intelligence and machine learning has created new challenges and opportunities for data analysts, statisticians, mathematicians, econometricians, computer scientists and many others. At the root of these techniques are algorithms and methods for clustering and classifying different types of large datasets, including time series data. Time Series Clustering and Classification includes relevant developments on observation-based, feature-based and model-based traditional and fuzzy clustering methods, feature-based and model-based classification methods, and machine learning methods. It presents a broad and self-contained overview of techniques for both researchers and students. Features Provides an overview of the methods and applications of pattern recognition of time series Covers a wide range of techniques, including unsupervised and supervised approaches Includes a range of real examples from medicine, finance, environmental science, and more R and MATLAB code, and relevant data sets are available on a supplementary website

Mastering the basic concepts of mathematics is the key to understanding other subjects such as Economics, Finance, Statistics, and Accounting. Mathematics for Finance, Business and Economics is written informally for easy comprehension. Unlike traditional textbooks it provides a combination of explanations, exploration and real-life applications of major concepts.

Mathematics for Finance, Business and Economics discusses elementary mathematical operations, linear and non-linear functions and equations, differentiation and optimization, economic functions, summation, percentages and interest, arithmetic and geometric series, present and future values of annuities, matrices and Markov chains.

Aided by the discussion of real-world problems and solutions, students across the business and economics disciplines will find this textbook perfect for gaining an understanding of a core plank of their studies.

This book presents recent developments on the theoretical, algorithmic, and application aspects of Big Data in Complex and Social Networks. The book consists of four parts, covering a wide range of topics. The first part of the book focuses on data storage and data processing. It explores how the efficient storage of data can fundamentally support intensive data access and queries, which enables sophisticated analysis. It also looks at how data processing and visualization help to communicate information clearly and efficiently. The second part of the book is devoted to the extraction of essential information and the prediction of web content. The book shows how Big Data analysis can be used to understand the interests, location, and search history of users and provide more accurate predictions of User Behavior. The latter two parts of the book cover the protection of privacy and security, and emergent applications of big data and social networks. It analyzes how to model rumor diffusion, identify misinformation from massive data, and design intervention strategies. Applications of big data and social networks in multilayer networks and multiparty systems are also covered in-depth.

Analytics is one of a number of terms which are used to describe a data-driven more scientific approach to management. Ability in analytics is an essential management skill: knowledge of data and analytics helps the manager to analyze decision situations, prevent problem situations from arising, identify new opportunities, and often enables many millions of dollars to be added to the bottom line for the organization. The objective of this book is to introduce analytics from the perspective of the general manager of a corporation. Rather than examine the details or attempt an encyclopaedic review of the field, this text emphasizes the strategic role that analytics is playing in globally competitive corporations today. The chapters of this book are organized in two main parts. The first part introduces a problem area and presents some basic analytical concepts that have been successfully used to address the problem area. The objective of this material is to provide the student, the manager of the future, with a general understanding of the tools and techniques used by the analyst.

Statistics for Finance develops students' professional skills in statistics with applications in finance. Developed from the authors' courses at the Technical University of Denmark and Lund University, the text bridges the gap between classical, rigorous treatments of financial mathematics that rarely connect concepts to data and books on econometrics and time series analysis that do not cover specific problems related to option valuation. The book discusses applications of financial derivatives pertaining to risk assessment and elimination. The authors cover various statistical and mathematical techniques, including linear and nonlinear time series analysis, stochastic calculus models, stochastic differential equations, Ito's formula, the Black-Scholes model, the generalized method-of-moments, and the Kalman filter. They explain how these tools are used to price financial derivatives, identify interest rate models, value bonds, estimate parameters, and much more. This textbook will help students understand and manage empirical research in financial engineering. It includes examples of how the statistical tools can be used to improve value-at-risk calculations and other issues. In addition, end-of-chapter exercises develop students' financial reasoning skills.

Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications presents a broad overview of statistical modeling of extreme events along with the most recent methodologies and various applications. The book brings together background material and advanced topics, eliminating the need to sort through the massive amount of literature on the subject. After reviewing univariate extreme value analysis and multivariate extremes, the book explains univariate extreme value mixture modeling, threshold selection in extreme value analysis, and threshold modeling of non-stationary extremes. It presents new results for block-maxima of vine copulas, develops time series of extremes with applications from climatology, describes max-autoregressive and moving maxima models for extremes, and discusses spatial extremes and max-stable processes. The book then covers simulation and conditional simulation of max-stable processes; inference methodologies, such as composite likelihood, Bayesian inference, and approximate Bayesian computation; and inferences about extreme quantiles and extreme dependence. It also explores novel applications of extreme value modeling, including financial investments, insurance and financial risk management, weather and climate disasters, clinical trials, and sports statistics. Risk analyses related to extreme events require the combined expertise of statisticians and domain experts in climatology, hydrology, finance, insurance, sports, and other fields. This book connects statistical/mathematical research with critical decision and risk assessment/management applications to stimulate more collaboration between these statisticians and specialists.

Economic evaluation has become an essential component of clinical trial design to show that new treatments and technologies offer value to payers in various healthcare systems. Although many books exist that address the theoretical or practical aspects of cost-effectiveness analysis, this book differentiates itself from the competition by detailing how to apply health economic evaluation techniques in a clinical trial context, from both academic and pharmaceutical/commercial perspectives. It also includes a special chapter for clinical trials in Cancer. Design & Analysis of Clinical Trials for Economic Evaluation & Reimbursement is not just about performing cost-effectiveness analyses. It also emphasizes the strategic importance of economic evaluation and offers guidance and advice on the complex factors at play before, during, and after an economic evaluation. Filled with detailed examples, the book bridges the gap between applications of economic evaluation in industry (mainly pharmaceutical) and what students may learn in university courses. It provides readers with access to SAS and STATA code. In addition, Windows-based software for sample size and value of information analysis is available free of charge-making it a valuable resource for students considering a career in this field or for those who simply wish to know more about applying economic evaluation techniques. The book includes coverage of trial design, case report form design, quality of life measures, sample sizes, submissions to regulatory authorities for reimbursement, Markov models, cohort models, and decision trees. Examples and case studies are provided at the end of each chapter. Presenting first-hand insights into how economic evaluations are performed from a drug development perspective, the book supplies readers with the foundation required to succeed in an environment where clinical trials and cost-effectiveness of new treatments are central. It also includes thought-provoking exercises for use in classroom and seminar discussions.

The goal of Portfolio Rebalancing is to provide mathematical and empirical analysis of the effects of portfolio rebalancing on portfolio returns and risks. The mathematical analysis answers the question of when and why fixed-weight portfolios might outperform buy-and-hold portfolios based on volatilities and returns. The empirical analysis, aided by mathematical insights, will examine the effects of portfolio rebalancing in capital markets for asset allocation portfolios and portfolios of stocks, bonds, and commodities.

Sufficient dimension reduction is a rapidly developing research field that has wide applications in regression diagnostics, data visualization, machine learning, genomics, image processing, pattern recognition, and medicine, because they are fields that produce large datasets with a large number of variables. Sufficient Dimension Reduction: Methods and Applications with R introduces the basic theories and the main methodologies, provides practical and easy-to-use algorithms and computer codes to implement these methodologies, and surveys the recent advances at the frontiers of this field. Features Provides comprehensive coverage of this emerging research field. Synthesizes a wide variety of dimension reduction methods under a few unifying principles such as projection in Hilbert spaces, kernel mapping, and von Mises expansion. Reflects most recent advances such as nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction, dimension folding for tensorial data, as well as sufficient dimension reduction for functional data. Includes a set of computer codes written in R that are easily implemented by the readers. Uses real data sets available online to illustrate the usage and power of the described methods. Sufficient dimension reduction has undergone momentous development in recent years, partly due to the increased demands for techniques to process high-dimensional data, a hallmark of our age of Big Data. This book will serve as the perfect entry into the field for the beginning researchers or a handy reference for the advanced ones. The author Bing Li obtained his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago. He is currently a Professor of Statistics at the Pennsylvania State University. His research interests cover sufficient dimension reduction, statistical graphical models, functional data analysis, machine learning, estimating equations and quasilikelihood, and robust statistics. He is a fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and the American Statistical Association. He is an Associate Editor for The Annals of Statistics and the Journal of the American Statistical Association.

This essential reference for students and scholars in the input-output research and applications community has been fully revised and updated to reflect important developments in the field. Expanded coverage includes construction and application of multiregional and interregional models, including international models and their application to global economic issues such as climate change and international trade; structural decomposition and path analysis; linkages and key sector identification and hypothetical extraction analysis; the connection of national income and product accounts to input-output accounts; supply and use tables for commodity-by-industry accounting and models; social accounting matrices; non-survey estimation techniques; and energy and environmental applications. Input-Output Analysis is an ideal introduction to the subject for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in many scholarly fields, including economics, regional science, regional economics, city, regional and urban planning, environmental planning, public policy analysis and public management.

Tackling the cybersecurity challenge is a matter of survival for society at large. Cyber attacks are rapidly increasing in sophistication and magnitude-and in their destructive potential. New threats emerge regularly, the last few years having seen a ransomware boom and distributed denial-of-service attacks leveraging the Internet of Things. For organisations, the use of cybersecurity risk management is essential in order to manage these threats. Yet current frameworks have drawbacks which can lead to the suboptimal allocation of cybersecurity resources. Cyber insurance has been touted as part of the solution - based on the idea that insurers can incentivize companies to improve their cybersecurity by offering premium discounts - but cyber insurance levels remain limited. This is because companies have difficulty determining which cyber insurance products to purchase, and insurance companies struggle to accurately assess cyber risk and thus develop cyber insurance products. To deal with these challenges, this volume presents new models for cybersecurity risk management, partly based on the use of cyber insurance. It contains: A set of mathematical models for cybersecurity risk management, including (i) a model to assist companies in determining their optimal budget allocation between security products and cyber insurance and (ii) a model to assist insurers in designing cyber insurance products. The models use adversarial risk analysis to account for the behavior of threat actors (as well as the behavior of companies and insurers). To inform these models, we draw on psychological and behavioural economics studies of decision-making by individuals regarding cybersecurity and cyber insurance. We also draw on organizational decision-making studies involving cybersecurity and cyber insurance. Its theoretical and methodological findings will appeal to researchers across a wide range of cybersecurity-related disciplines including risk and decision analysis, analytics, technology management, actuarial sciences, behavioural sciences, and economics. The practical findings will help cybersecurity professionals and insurers enhance cybersecurity and cyber insurance, thus benefiting society as a whole. This book grew out of a two-year European Union-funded project under Horizons 2020, called CYBECO (Supporting Cyber Insurance from a Behavioral Choice Perspective).

The quantitative modeling of complex systems of interacting risks is a fairly recent development in the financial and insurance industries. Over the past decades, there has been tremendous innovation and development in the actuarial field. In addition to undertaking mortality and longevity risks in traditional life and annuity products, insurers face unprecedented financial risks since the introduction of equity-linking insurance in 1960s. As the industry moves into the new territory of managing many intertwined financial and insurance risks, non-traditional problems and challenges arise, presenting great opportunities for technology development. Today's computational power and technology make it possible for the life insurance industry to develop highly sophisticated models, which were impossible just a decade ago. Nonetheless, as more industrial practices and regulations move towards dependence on stochastic models, the demand for computational power continues to grow. While the industry continues to rely heavily on hardware innovations, trying to make brute force methods faster and more palatable, we are approaching a crossroads about how to proceed. An Introduction to Computational Risk Management of Equity-Linked Insurance provides a resource for students and entry-level professionals to understand the fundamentals of industrial modeling practice, but also to give a glimpse of software methodologies for modeling and computational efficiency. Features Provides a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to quantitative risk management of equity-linked insurance with exercises and programming samples Includes a collection of mathematical formulations of risk management problems presenting opportunities and challenges to applied mathematicians Summarizes state-of-arts computational techniques for risk management professionals Bridges the gap between the latest developments in finance and actuarial literature and the practice of risk management for investment-combined life insurance Gives a comprehensive review of both Monte Carlo simulation methods and non-simulation numerical methods Runhuan Feng is an Associate Professor of Mathematics and the Director of Actuarial Science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries and a Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst. He is a Helen Corley Petit Professorial Scholar and the State Farm Companies Foundation Scholar in Actuarial Science. Runhuan received a Ph.D. degree in Actuarial Science from the University of Waterloo, Canada. Prior to joining Illinois, he held a tenure-track position at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, where he was named a Research Fellow. Runhuan received numerous grants and research contracts from the Actuarial Foundation and the Society of Actuaries in the past. He has published a series of papers on top-tier actuarial and applied probability journals on stochastic analytic approaches in risk theory and quantitative risk management of equity-linked insurance. Over the recent years, he has dedicated his efforts to developing computational methods for managing market innovations in areas of investment combined insurance and retirement planning.

A fair question to ask of an advocate of subjective Bayesianism (which the author is) is "how would you model uncertainty?" In this book, the author writes about how he has done it using real problems from the past, and offers additional comments about the context in which he was working.

Focusing on Bayesian approaches and computations using analytic and simulation-based methods for inference, Time Series: Modeling, Computation, and Inference, Second Edition integrates mainstream approaches for time series modeling with significant recent developments in methodology and applications of time series analysis. It encompasses a graduate-level account of Bayesian time series modeling, analysis and forecasting, a broad range of references to state-of-the-art approaches to univariate and multivariate time series analysis, and contacts research frontiers in multivariate time series modeling and forecasting. It presents overviews of several classes of models and related methodology for inference, statistical computation for model fitting and assessment, and forecasting. It explores the connections between time- and frequency-domain approaches and develop various models and analyses using Bayesian formulations and computation, including use of computations based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. It illustrates the models and methods with examples and case studies from a variety of fields, including signal processing, biomedicine, environmental science, and finance. Along with core models and methods, the book represents state-of-the art approaches to analysis and forecasting in challenging time series problems. It also demonstrates the growth of time series analysis into new application areas in recent years, and contacts recent and relevant modeling developments and research challenges. New in the second edition: Expanded on aspects of core model theory and methodology. Multiple new examples and exercises. Detailed development of dynamic factor models. Updated discussion and connections with recent and current research frontiers.

Developed from the author's course on Monte Carlo simulation at Brown University, Monte Carlo Simulation with Applications to Finance provides a self-contained introduction to Monte Carlo methods in financial engineering. It is suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students taking a one-semester course or for practitioners in the financial industry.

The author first presents the necessary mathematical tools for simulation, arbitrary free option pricing, and the basic implementation of Monte Carlo schemes. He then describes variance reduction techniques, including control variates, stratification, conditioning, importance sampling, and cross-entropy. The text concludes with stochastic calculus and the simulation of diffusion processes.

Only requiring some familiarity with probability and statistics, the book keeps much of the mathematics at an informal level and avoids technical measure-theoretic jargon to provide a practical understanding of the basics. It includes a large number of examples as well as MATLAB(r) coding exercises that are designed in a progressive manner so that no prior experience with MATLAB is needed.

Machine learning (ML) is progressively reshaping the fields of quantitative finance and algorithmic trading. ML tools are increasingly adopted by hedge funds and asset managers, notably for alpha signal generation and stocks selection. The technicality of the subject can make it hard for non-specialists to join the bandwagon, as the jargon and coding requirements may seem out of reach. Machine Learning for Factor Investing: R Version bridges this gap. It provides a comprehensive tour of modern ML-based investment strategies that rely on firm characteristics. The book covers a wide array of subjects which range from economic rationales to rigorous portfolio back-testing and encompass both data processing and model interpretability. Common supervised learning algorithms such as tree models and neural networks are explained in the context of style investing and the reader can also dig into more complex techniques like autoencoder asset returns, Bayesian additive trees, and causal models. All topics are illustrated with self-contained R code samples and snippets that are applied to a large public dataset that contains over 90 predictors. The material, along with the content of the book, is available online so that readers can reproduce and enhance the examples at their convenience. If you have even a basic knowledge of quantitative finance, this combination of theoretical concepts and practical illustrations will help you learn quickly and deepen your financial and technical expertise.

High-Performance Computing (HPC) delivers higher computational performance to solve problems in science, engineering and finance. There are various HPC resources available for different needs, ranging from cloud computing- that can be used without much expertise and expense - to more tailored hardware, such as Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) or D-Wave's quantum computer systems. High-Performance Computing in Finance is the first book that provides a state-of-the-art introduction to HPC for finance, capturing both academically and practically relevant problems.

Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance explores the latest developments in the analysis and modeling of economic and financial data. Well-recognized econometric experts discuss the rapidly growing research in economics and finance and offer insight on the future direction of these fields. Focusing on micro models, the first group of chapters describes the statistical issues involved in the analysis of econometric models with cross-sectional data often arising in microeconomics. The book then illustrates time series models that are extensively used in empirical macroeconomics and finance. The last set of chapters explores the types of panel data and spatial models that are becoming increasingly significant in analyzing complex economic behavior and policy evaluations. This handbook brings together both background material and new methodological and applied results that are extremely important to the current and future frontiers in empirical economics and finance. It emphasizes inferential issues that transpire in the analysis of cross-sectional, time series, and panel data-based empirical models in economics, finance, and related disciplines.

The state-space approach provides a formal framework where any result or procedure developed for a basic model can be seamlessly applied to a standard formulation written in state-space form. Moreover, it can accommodate with a reasonable effort nonstandard situations, such as observation errors, aggregation constraints, or missing in-sample values. Exploring the advantages of this approach, State-Space Methods for Time Series Analysis: Theory, Applications and Software presents many computational procedures that can be applied to a previously specified linear model in state-space form. After discussing the formulation of the state-space model, the book illustrates the flexibility of the state-space representation and covers the main state estimation algorithms: filtering and smoothing. It then shows how to compute the Gaussian likelihood for unknown coefficients in the state-space matrices of a given model before introducing subspace methods and their application. It also discusses signal extraction, describes two algorithms to obtain the VARMAX matrices corresponding to any linear state-space model, and addresses several issues relating to the aggregation and disaggregation of time series. The book concludes with a cross-sectional extension to the classical state-space formulation in order to accommodate longitudinal or panel data. Missing data is a common occurrence here, and the book explains imputation procedures necessary to treat missingness in both exogenous and endogenous variables. Web Resource The authors' E4 MATLAB (R) toolbox offers all the computational procedures, administrative and analytical functions, and related materials for time series analysis. This flexible, powerful, and free software tool enables readers to replicate the practical examples in the text and apply the procedures to their own work.

Quantitative Modeling of Derivative Securities demonstrates how to take the basic ideas of arbitrage theory and apply them - in a very concrete way - to the design and analysis of financial products. Based primarily (but not exclusively) on the analysis of derivatives, the book emphasizes relative-value and hedging ideas applied to different financial instruments. Using a "financial engineering approach," the theory is developed progressively, focusing on specific aspects of pricing and hedging and with problems that the technical analyst or trader has to consider in practice. More than just an introductory text, the reader who has mastered the contents of this one book will have breached the gap separating the novice from the technical and research literature.

Models for Dependent Time Series addresses the issues that arise and the methodology that can be applied when the dependence between time series is described and modeled. Whether you work in the economic, physical, or life sciences, the book shows you how to draw meaningful, applicable, and statistically valid conclusions from multivariate (or vector) time series data. The first four chapters discuss the two main pillars of the subject that have been developed over the last 60 years: vector autoregressive modeling and multivariate spectral analysis. These chapters provide the foundational material for the remaining chapters, which cover the construction of structural models and the extension of vector autoregressive modeling to high frequency, continuously recorded, and irregularly sampled series. The final chapter combines these approaches with spectral methods for identifying causal dependence between time series. Web ResourceA supplementary website provides the data sets used in the examples as well as documented MATLAB (R) functions and other code for analyzing the examples and producing the illustrations. The site also offers technical details on the estimation theory and methods and the implementation of the models.