"It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things," provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape--but Fair doesn't stop there.
Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well--including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things" and find out
As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

Suitable for statisticians, mathematicians, actuaries, and students interested in the problems of insurance and analysis of lifetimes, Statistical Methods with Applications to Demography and Life Insurance presents contemporary statistical techniques for analyzing life distributions and life insurance problems. It not only contains traditional material but also incorporates new problems and techniques not discussed in existing actuarial literature. The book mainly focuses on the analysis of an individual life and describes statistical methods based on empirical and related processes. Coverage ranges from analyzing the tails of distributions of lifetimes to modeling population dynamics with migrations. To help readers understand the technical points, the text covers topics such as the Stieltjes, Wiener, and Ito integrals. It also introduces other themes of interest in demography, including mixtures of distributions, analysis of longevity and extreme value theory, and the age structure of a population. In addition, the author discusses net premiums for various insurance policies. Mathematical statements are carefully and clearly formulated and proved while avoiding excessive technicalities as much as possible. The book illustrates how these statements help solve numerous statistical problems. It also includes more than 70 exercises.

The book aims at perfecting the national governance system and improving national governance ability. It evaluates the balance sheets of the state and residents, non-financial corporations, financial institutions and the central bank, the central government, local government and external sectors - the goal being to provide a systematic analysis of the characteristics and trajectory of China's economic expansion and structural adjustment, as well as objective assessments of short and long-term economic operations, debt risks and financial risks with regard to the institutional and structural characteristics of economic development in market-oriented reform. It puts forward a preliminary analysis of China's national and sectoral balance sheets on the basis of scientific estimates of various kinds of data, analyzes from a new perspective the major issues that are currently troubling China - development sustainability, government transformation, local government debt, welfare reform, and the financial opening-up and stability - and explores corresponding policies, measures, and institutional arrangements.

Pathwise estimation and inference for diffusion market models discusses contemporary techniques for inferring, from options and bond prices, the market participants' aggregate view on important financial parameters such as implied volatility, discount rate, future interest rate, and their uncertainty thereof. The focus is on the pathwise inference methods that are applicable to a sole path of the observed prices and do not require the observation of an ensemble of such paths. This book is pitched at the level of senior undergraduate students undertaking research at honors year, and postgraduate candidates undertaking Master's or PhD degree by research. From a research perspective, this book reaches out to academic researchers from backgrounds as diverse as mathematics and probability, econometrics and statistics, and computational mathematics and optimization whose interest lie in analysis and modelling of financial market data from a multi-disciplinary approach. Additionally, this book is also aimed at financial market practitioners participating in capital market facing businesses who seek to keep abreast with and draw inspiration from novel approaches in market data analysis. The first two chapters of the book contains introductory material on stochastic analysis and the classical diffusion stock market models. The remaining chapters discuss more special stock and bond market models and special methods of pathwise inference for market parameter for different models. The final chapter describes applications of numerical methods of inference of bond market parameters to forecasting of short rate. Nikolai Dokuchaev is an associate professor in Mathematics and Statistics at Curtin University. His research interests include mathematical and statistical finance, stochastic analysis, PDEs, control, and signal processing. Lin Yee Hin is a practitioner in the capital market facing industry. His research interests include econometrics, non-parametric regression, and scientific computing.

This book describes a system of mathematical models and methods that can be used to analyze real economic and managerial decisions and to improve their effectiveness. Application areas include: management of development and operation budgets, assessment and management of economic systems using an energy entropy approach, equation of exchange rates and forecasting foreign exchange operations, evaluation of innovative projects, monitoring of governmental programs, risk management of investment processes, decisions on the allocation of resources, and identification of competitive industrial clusters. The proposed methods and models were tested on the example of Kazakhstan's economy, but the generated solutions will be useful for applications at other levels and in other countries. Regarding your book "Mathematical Methods and Models in Economics", I am impressed because now it is time when "econometrics" is becoming more appreciated by economists and by schools that are the hosts or employers of modern economists. ... Your presented results really impressed me. John F. Nash, Jr., Princeton University, Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences The book is within my scope of interest because of its novelty and practicality. First, there is a need for realistic modeling of complex systems, both natural and artificial that conclude computer and economic systems. There has been an ongoing effort in developing models dealing with complexity and incomplete knowledge. Consequently, it is clear to recognize the contribution of Mutanov to encapsulate economic modeling with emphasis on budgeting and innovation. Secondly, the method proposed by Mutanov has been verified by applying to the case of the Republic of Kazakhstan, with her vibrant emerging economy. Thirdly, Chapter 5 of the book is of particular interest for the computer technology community because it deals with innovation. In summary, the book of Mutanov should become one of the outstanding recognized pragmatic guides for dealing with innovative systems. Andrzej Rucinski, University of New Hampshire This book is unique in its theoretical findings and practical applicability. The book is an illuminating study based on an applied mathematical model which uses methods such as linear programming and input-output analysis. Moreover, this work demonstrates the author's great insight and academic brilliance in the fields of finance, technological innovations and marketing vis-a-vis the market economy. From both theoretical and practical standpoint, this work is indeed a great achievement. Yeon Cheon Oh, President of Seoul National University

The beginning of the age of artificial intelligence and machine learning has created new challenges and opportunities for data analysts, statisticians, mathematicians, econometricians, computer scientists and many others. At the root of these techniques are algorithms and methods for clustering and classifying different types of large datasets, including time series data. Time Series Clustering and Classification includes relevant developments on observation-based, feature-based and model-based traditional and fuzzy clustering methods, feature-based and model-based classification methods, and machine learning methods. It presents a broad and self-contained overview of techniques for both researchers and students. Features Provides an overview of the methods and applications of pattern recognition of time series Covers a wide range of techniques, including unsupervised and supervised approaches Includes a range of real examples from medicine, finance, environmental science, and more R and MATLAB code, and relevant data sets are available on a supplementary website

World Statistics on Mining and Utilities 2018 provides a unique biennial overview of the role of mining and utility activities in the world economy. This extensive resource from UNIDO provides detailed time series data on the level, structure and growth of international mining and utility activities by country and sector. Country level data is clearly presented on the number of establishments, employment and output of activities such as: coal, iron ore and crude petroleum mining as well as production and supply of electricity, natural gas and water. This unique and comprehensive source of information meets the growing demand of data users who require detailed and reliable statistical information on the primary industry and energy producing sectors. The publication provides internationally comparable data to economic researchers, development strategists and business communities who influence the policy of industrial development and its environmental sustainability.

Originating in economics but now used in a variety of disciplines, including medicine, epidemiology and the social sciences, this book provides accessible coverage of the theoretical foundations of the Logit model as well as its applications to concrete problems. It is written not only for economists but for researchers working in disciplines where it is necessary to model qualitative random variables. J.S. Cramer has also provided data sets on which to practice Logit analysis.

This book is based on two Sir Richard Stone lectures at the Bank of England and the National Institute for Economic and Social Research. Largely non-technical, the first part of the book covers some of the broader issues involved in Stone's and others' work in statistics. It explores the more philosophical issues attached to statistics, econometrics and forecasting and describes the paradigm shift back to the Bayesian approach to scientific inference. The first part concludes with simple examples from the different worlds of educational management and golf clubs. The second, more technical part covers in detail the structural econometric time series analysis (SEMTSA) approach to statistical and econometric modeling.

Introduction to Financial Mathematics: Option Valuation, Second Edition is a well-rounded primer to the mathematics and models used in the valuation of financial derivatives. The book consists of fifteen chapters, the first ten of which develop option valuation techniques in discrete time, the last five describing the theory in continuous time. The first half of the textbook develops basic finance and probability. The author then treats the binomial model as the primary example of discrete-time option valuation. The final part of the textbook examines the Black-Scholes model. The book is written to provide a straightforward account of the principles of option pricing and examines these principles in detail using standard discrete and stochastic calculus models. Additionally, the second edition has new exercises and examples, and includes many tables and graphs generated by over 30 MS Excel VBA modules available on the author's webpage https://home.gwu.edu/~hdj/.

Originally published in 1978. This book is designed to enable students on main courses in economics to comprehend literature which employs econometric techniques as a method of analysis, to use econometric techniques themselves to test hypotheses about economic relationships and to understand some of the difficulties involved in interpreting results. While the book is mainly aimed at second-year undergraduates undertaking courses in applied economics, its scope is sufficiently wide to take in students at postgraduate level who have no background in econometrics - it integrates fully the mathematical and statistical techniques used in econometrics with micro- and macroeconomic case studies.

There is no shortage of incentives to study and reduce poverty in our societies. Poverty is studied in economics and political sciences, and population surveys are an important source of information about it. The design and analysis of such surveys is principally a statistical subject matter and the computer is essential for their data compilation and processing. Focusing on The European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), a program of annual national surveys which collect data related to poverty and social exclusion, Statistical Studies of Income, Poverty and Inequality in Europe: Computing and Graphics in R presents a set of statistical analyses pertinent to the general goals of EU-SILC. The contents of the volume are biased toward computing and statistics, with reduced attention to economics, political and other social sciences. The emphasis is on methods and procedures as opposed to results, because the data from annual surveys made available since publication and in the near future will degrade the novelty of the data used and the results derived in this volume. The aim of this volume is not to propose specific methods of analysis, but to open up the analytical agenda and address the aspects of the key definitions in the subject of poverty assessment that entail nontrivial elements of arbitrariness. The presented methods do not exhaust the range of analyses suitable for EU-SILC, but will stimulate the search for new methods and adaptation of established methods that cater to the identified purposes.

Advanced Statistics for Kinesiology and Exercise Science is the first textbook to cover advanced statistical methods in the context of the study of human performance. Divided into three distinct sections, the book introduces and explores in depth both analysis of variance (ANOVA) and regressions analyses, including chapters on: preparing data for analysis; one-way, factorial, and repeated-measures ANOVA; analysis of covariance and multiple analyses of variance and covariance; diagnostic tests; regression models for quantitative and qualitative data; model selection and validation; logistic regression Drawing clear lines between the use of IBM SPSS Statistics software and interpreting and analyzing results, and illustrated with sport and exercise science-specific sample data and results sections throughout, the book offers an unparalleled level of detail in explaining advanced statistical techniques to kinesiology students. Advanced Statistics for Kinesiology and Exercise Science is an essential text for any student studying advanced statistics or research methods as part of an undergraduate or postgraduate degree programme in kinesiology, sport and exercise science, or health science.

Originally published in 1970; with a second edition in 1989. Empirical Bayes methods use some of the apparatus of the pure Bayes approach, but an actual prior distribution is assumed to generate the data sequence. It can be estimated thus producing empirical Bayes estimates or decision rules. In this second edition, details are provided of the derivation and the performance of empirical Bayes rules for a variety of special models. Attention is given to the problem of assessing the goodness of an empirical Bayes estimator for a given set of prior data. Chapters also focus on alternatives to the empirical Bayes approach and actual applications of empirical Bayes methods.

Originally published in 1929. This balanced combination of fieldwork, statistical measurement, and realistic applications shows a synthesis of economics and political science in a conception of an organic relationship between the two sciences that involves functional analysis, institutional interpretation, and a more workmanlike approach to questions of organization such as division of labour and the control of industry. The treatise applies the test of fact through statistical analysis to economic and political theories for the quantitative and institutional approach in solving social and industrial problems. It constructs a framework of concepts, combining both economic and political theory, to systematically produce an original statement in general terms of the principles and methods for statistical fieldwork. The separation into Parts allows selective reading for the methods of statistical measurement; the principles and fallacies of applying these measures to economic and political fields; and the resultant construction of a statistical economics and politics. Basic statistical concepts are described for application, with each method of statistical measurement illustrated with instances relevant to the economic and political theory discussed and a statistical glossary is included.

In order to make informed decisions, there are three important elements: intuition, trust, and analytics. Intuition is based on experiential learning and recent research has shown that those who rely on their "gut feelings" may do better than those who don't. Analytics, however, are important in a data-driven environment to also inform decision making. The third element, trust, is critical for knowledge sharing to take place. These three elements-intuition, analytics, and trust-make a perfect combination for decision making. This book gathers leading researchers who explore the role of these three elements in the process of decision-making.

How could Finance benefit from AI? How can AI techniques provide an edge? Moving well beyond simply speeding up computation, this book tackles AI for Finance from a range of perspectives including business, technology, research, and students. Covering aspects like algorithms, big data, and machine learning, this book answers these and many other questions.

Originally published in 1960 and 1966. This is an elementary introduction to the sources of economic statistics and their uses in answering economic questions. No mathematical knowledge is assumed, and no mathematical symbols are used. The book shows - by asking and answering a number of typical questions of applied economics - what the most useful statistics are, where they are found, and how they are to be interpreted and presented. The reader is introduced to the major British, European and American official sources, to the social accounts, to index numbers and averaging, and to elementary aids to inspection such as moving averages and scatter diagrams.

The rapidly increasing importance of China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan both in Asia and in the world economy, represents a trend that is set to continue into the 21st century. This book provides an authoritative assessment of the 20th century performance of these countries, and in particular the factors contributing to the acceleration of Asian growth in the latter part of the century. The contributors look at Asia within a global perspective and detailed comparisons are drawn with Australia and the USA. Contributions from leading experts offer a comprehensive review of the procedures necessary to establish valid international comparisons for countries with very different economic histories and levels of development. These include methods of growth performance measurement and techniques of growth accounting. The Asian Economies in the Twentieth Century will be an indispensable new tool for policy analysts, international agencies and academic researchers.

In How to Make the World Add Up, Tim Harford draws on his experience as both an economist and presenter of the BBC's radio show 'More or Less' to take us deep into the world of disinformation and obfuscation, bad research and misplaced motivation to find those priceless jewels of data and analysis that make communicating with numbers so rewarding. Through vivid storytelling he reveals how we can evaluate the claims that surround us with confidence, curiosity and a healthy level of scepticism. It is a must-read for anyone who cares about understanding the world around them.

This important three volume set is a collection of Edgeworth's published writings in the areas of statistics and probability. There is a newly-emerging interest in probability theory as a basis for economic thought and this collection makes the writings of Edgeworth more accessible.A new introduction written by the editor covers the biographical details, a brief abstract of each of the articles and the basis of their selection is also included.

Modern marketing managers need intuitive and effective tools not just for designing strategies but also for general management. This hands-on book introduces a range of contemporary management and marketing tools and concepts with a focus on forecasting, creating stimulating processes, and implementation. Topics addressed range from creating a clear vision, setting goals, and developing strategies, to implementing strategic analysis tools, consumer value models, budgeting, strategic and operational marketing plans. Special attention is paid to change management and digital transformation in the marketing landscape. Given its approach and content, the book offers a valuable asset for all professionals and advanced MBA students looking for 'real-life' tools and applications.

Originally published in 1985. Mathematical methods and models to facilitate the understanding of the processes of economic dynamics and prediction were refined considerably over the period before this book was written. The field had grown; and many of the techniques involved became extremely complicated. Areas of particular interest include optimal control, non-linear models, game-theoretic approaches, demand analysis and time-series forecasting. This book presents a critical appraisal of developments and identifies potentially productive new directions for research. It synthesises work from mathematics, statistics and economics and includes a thorough analysis of the relationship between system understanding and predictability.