This book contains a selection of papers that have been prepared for the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on the Economics of Atmospheric Pollution, that took place in Wageningen, The Netherlands, November 1994, hosted by Wageningen Agricultural University and sponsored by NATO Scientific and Environmental Affairs Division. Participants from the USA and a large number of countries in Western, Central and Eastern Europe have participated to discuss the economic aspects of transboundary air pollution and climate change. A number of selected papers have been reviewed and revised on the basis of the comments provided. The editors kindly acknowledge the support of Prof. Charles Kolstad, University of California, Santa Barbara, and Prof. Stef Proost, Center for Economic Studies, Catholic University Leuven, for reviewing several chapters of the book. Also the assistance of several anonymous reviewers is kindly acknowledged. We hope that the book will contribute to a better understanding of the most relevant issues in the area of international policymaking on transboundary pollution and climate change, and that it contributes to further economic analysis in this interesting research area. The topic of transboundary pollution related to climate change, acidification and tropospheric ozone will in the coming decades continue to be relevant for all countries in the world. Ekko van Ierland Kazimierz Gorka WageningeniCracow, June 1996 CONTENTS 1 On tbe Economics of Atmospberic Pollution Ekko van IerJand Wageningen Agricultural University, The Netherlands.

Living with the Unexpected deals with complexity and uncertainty, two major challenges in a world faced with climate change and hazards. The study focuses on appropriate methods which enable vulnerable communities to cope effectively with natural hazards and disasters. The central goal of the book is an applicable combination of hazard management and development planning. Therefore, the reconstruction process following a disaster is understood as an opportunity for structural changes and self-organisation processes that foster sustainable development. In this context the potential of scenario planning as an evolutionary and participatory learning approach is addressed. The empirical research concentrates on the time before and during the volcanic crisis on the Caribbean Island Montserrat. Particular methods used are a systematic analysis of the complex system Montserrat, more than 200 interviews with stakeholders and citizens - concentrating on resource and hazard perceptions - as well as the organization and execution of various scenario workshops. The study shows that the opportunity to realise sustainable development on the island with the help of a participative, adaptive reconstruction process is better than ever. The population is sensitised to disasters and an uncertain future. Their preparedness to accept measures which are designed to reduce their vulnerability is high. This book demonstrates how we can learn to live with the Unexpeted.

In 1986, an International Symposium on Monitoring of Gaseous Pollut- ants by Tunable Diode Lasers was organized by the Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Physikalische Messtechnik in Freiburg, FRG, and held at this institution on November 13-14, 1986. The papers presented at that occasion extensively covered the applications of tunable diode laser spectroscopy (TDLS) to the analysis of trace and exhaust gases together with the latest improvements brought to the tech- niques used. It was generally consented by the participants that meetings of this kind are of major importance and should take place on a regular basis. The organizers were thus encouraged to plan a Second International Sympo- sium on Monitoring of Gaseous Pollutants by Tunable Diode Lasers which was held two years later on October 17-18, 1988, again in Freiburg. In addi- tion to the main subjects treated in the first Symposium, the Scientific Programme this time presented a session on the development of lead chalco- genide lasers. Once more, only a limited attention was given to applica- tions in high resolution molecular spectroscopy. In order to complete the update, sessions on components and techniques were included in the Pro- gramme. As for the previous Symposium, some space was also given to alter- native optical techniques. This time, in particular contributions on laser photoacoustic detection were included.

The theory of linear discrete time filtering started with a paper by Kol mogorov in 1941. He addressed the problem for stationary random se quences and introduced the idea of the innovations process, which is a useful tool for the more general problems considered here. The reader may object and note that Gauss discovered least squares much earlier; however, I want to distinguish between the problem of parameter estimation, the Gauss problem, and that of Kolmogorov estimation of a process. This sep aration is of more than academic interest as the least squares problem leads to the normal equations, which are numerically ill conditioned, while the process estimation problem in the linear case with appropriate assumptions leads to uniformly asymptotically stable equations for the estimator and the gain. The conditions relate to controlability and observability and will be detailed in this volume. In the present volume, we present a series of lectures on linear and nonlinear sequential filtering theory. The theory is due to Kalman for the linear colored observation noise problem; in the case of white observation noise it is the analog of the continuous-time Kalman-Bucy theory. The discrete time filtering theory requires only modest mathematical tools in counterpoint to the continuous time theory and is aimed at a senior-level undergraduate course. The present book, organized by lectures, is actually based on a course that meets once a week for three hours, with each meeting constituting a lecture."

The significant progress achieved in modern instrumental analysis has led to a continuous lowering of detection limits and improved precision. This should in principle permit the reliable and extremely precise analysis of trace compounds mainly trace elements, at levels down to the lowest natural concentrations. However, the frequently observed very high discrepancies between the analyt ical results of different laboratories as well as the deviations from true values are, regrettably, still common in analytical practice. Basic methodological errors at the determination step can usually be minimized or even avoided by carefully per formed quality control measures - e. g. by interlaboratory comparisons and the proper use of certified reference materials. The most severe and often under estimated error sources, however, are those connected with the whole and often extremely complex sampling process, and also to a lesser extent, with sample pre paration prior to analysis. Thus, for these initial steps of an analytical procedure particular experience is needed, as well as a detailed knowledge of the interrela tions between these steps, which always have to be applied with the utmost care. In collaboration with a number of very experienced colleagues working in dif book has tried to contribute to a better ferent research areas, the editor of this understanding of these particular error sources and how they can be overcome in a series of training courses held during the last decade at the "Haus der Technik," Essen, Germany."

Microcomputer-based labs, the use of real-time data capture and display in teaching, give the learner new ways to explore and understand the world. As this book shows, the international effort over a quarter-century to develop and understand microcomputer-based labs (MBL) has resulted in a rich array of innovative implementations and some convincing evidence for the value of computers for learning. The book is a sampler of MBL work by an outstanding international group of scientists and educators, based on papers they presented at a seminar held as part of the NATO Special Programme on Advanced Educational Technology. The story they tell of the development of MBL offers valuable policy lessons on how to promote educational innovation. The book will be of interest to a wide range of educators and to policy makers.

In October 1979 the First European Symposium on Physico-Chemical Behaviour of Atmospheric Pollutants was held In Ispra (Italy); 83 scientists attended the conference contributing 44 papers. Ten years later, the Fifth European Symposium on Physico-Chemical Behaviour of Atmospheric Pollutants, organized as for the previous Symposia In the framework of the Concerted Action *COST 611, was held in Varese (Italy) from 25 to 28 September 1989. This Volume contains the oral papers and the posters presented at this Symposium. Participation at this Conference Is more than doubled of that In 1979 In terms of scientists (185) and contributed papers (110). This simple comparison demonstrates once more the growing attention of the scientific community to the problems related to the pollution of the atmosphere. During these years, Important new Issues have arisen (global pol lutlon/cl Imatlc changes) whl Ie old ones have been reviewed due to new experimental evidence (depletion of stratospheric ozone). The Symposium offered the best opportunity for a review of the current studies and technical progress achieved In the various sectors of the Concerted Action since the Fourth Symposium held In Stresa (Italy) In September 1986. In 1987 the scientific programme and the operational structures of the COST 611 Project were revised. The Project Is now structured into three Working Parties: 1. Development of Analytical Methods to measure Trace Components of the Atmosphere. 2. Atmospheric Chemical and Photochemical Processes. 3. Field measurements and their Interpretation.

This is a consistent treatment of the material-independent fundamental equations of the theory of porous media, formulating constitutive equations for frictional materials in the elastic and plastic range, while tracing the historical development of the theory. Thus, for the first time, a unique treatment of fluid-saturated porous solids is presented, including an explanation of the corresponding theory by way of its historical progression, and a thorough description of its current state.

Although the "greenhouse effect" and "global climate change" have been the subjects of scientific scrutiny for many decades, only recently have they received widespread public attention. Two major events helped generate this attention. First, in 1990 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its findings on the science, impacts and policy implications of climate change. The findings of the IPCC, prepared and reviewed extensively by the world's leading experts in the field, confirmed that the increasing atmospheric concentrations of "greenhouse" gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and the chlorofluorocarbons, could cause the world to warm and sea level to rise. Second, in 1992 the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) inRio de Janeiro focussed the attention of the world's national governments, as well as organisations and individuals outside the governments, on the threat of global climate change. The Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), signed by nations at UNCED, reflects both the concern about the effects of climate change and the urgent need for action to prevent or reduce its potential impacts, particularly with respect to the vulnerable developing countries of the world. Bangladesh ratified the FCCC on 15 April 1994. The countries that have signed and ratified the FCCC are obligated to report to the Conference of the Parties (CoP) to the Convention on a number of inter related issues.

This book is the latest volume in the series entitled " Data and Knowledge in a Changing World ", published by the Committee on Data for Science and Technology (CODATA) of the International Council of Scientific Unions (Icsu). This series was established to collect together, from many diverse fields, the wealth of information pertaining t.o the intelligent exploitation of data in the conduct of science and technology. This volume is the first in a two-volume series that will discuss techniques for the analysis of natural dynamic systems, and their applications to a variety of geophysical problems. The present volume lays out the theoretical foun dations for these techniques. The second volume will use these techniques in applications to fields such as seismology, geodynamics, geoelectricity, ge omagnetism, aeromagnetics, topography and bathymetry. The book consists of two parts, which describe two complementary ap proaches to the analysis of natural systems. The first, written by A. Gvishi ani, deals with dynamic pattern recognition. It lays out the mathematical VI Foreword theory and the formalized algorithms that. forms the basis for the classifi cation of vector objects and the use of this classification in the study of dynamical systems, with particular emphasis on the prediction of system behavior in space and time. It discusses the construction of classification schemes, and the evaluation of their stability and reliability.

The 3rd International Symposium on Monitoring of Gaseous Pollutants by Tunable Diode th Lasers, held at the Fraunhofer Institute in Freiburg on October 17th and 18 , continued a tradition, established by the two preceeding meetings held at the same location, in 1986 and 1988. The steadily increasing number of participants and contributions emphasizes the need for such a meeting, which is unique in Europe and appreciated abroad. This third symposium in particular, was specially marked by the presence of the former Eastern Block Countries, with a number of scientists, and contributions, from the USSR (stilI existing at the time of the meeting) and from East Berlin. The large number of contributions proposed, originally, as oral presentations, could not be fitted in the schedule of the two-day limit which the participants to the previous meetings had recommended. To take account of these contributions, poster sessions were held, combined with extended discussion time. This intensified personal interaction was much appreciated by the participants.

The effects of meteorological phenomena upon forest produc tivity and forestry operations have been of concern for many years. With the evolution of system-level studies of forest eco system structure and function in the International Biological Program and elsewhere, more fundamental interactions between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere received scientific atten tion but the emphasis on meteorological and climatological effects on forest processes remained. More recently, as recogni tion has developed of potential and actual problems associated with the atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition of airborne pollutants, the effects of forest canopies upon boundary-layer meteorological phenomena has come under scientific scrutiny. Looking to the future, with rising atmospheric con centrations of C02 and increasing competition for the finite fresh-water resources of the earth, interest in the role of forests in global C02 and water balances can also be expected to intensify. Thus, the nature of forest canopy-atmosphere interac tions, that is to say, the meteorological phenomena occurring in and above forest canopies, are of importance to a wide variety of scientific and social-issues. Demands for forest meteorological information currently exceed levels of knowledge and given the economic constraints of science in general and environmental sciences in particular, chances for major improvements in scien tific support in the near future are slim. Unfortunately, studies of environmental phenomena in and above forests are costly and logistically difficult. Trees, the ecological dominants of forest ecosystems, are the largest of all terrestrial organisms."

2Vlanuals of mineral dressing or more precisely those of comminution-classifi cation treat in particular the mechanics of the machines, and generally their handling. In this way the plant engineer becomes acquainted with the equip ment but is given no help in learning something of the processes taking place in the material to be comminuted even though the purpose of the operation is to enhance wanted and to avoid unwanted physical or physico-chemical processes. Neglecting the description or representation of generally used and well known equipment the object of this monograph is to supply information on the processes taking place in grinding installations. It explains the sometimes complicated phemonena by applying quite simple means; it requires only an elementary knowledge of mathematics, mechanics and physical chemistry. The ideas are applicable to the grinding of all brittle raw materials or semi finished industrial products. The special problems of cement grinding and thm;e of hall mills are explained in more detail; in cement grinding we have to meet special requirements with regard to ball mills apart from other con siderations -, since these now demand the greatest overall energy consumption. Currently disputed problems are dealt with, and naturally the views of the author are given in detail, but contrary views are also mentioned and the ample list of references ensures that these opposing views can be considered.

In this book the author has succeeded in presenting the many facets of the globel problems and hazards for our climate and thei r i nterdi scip l inary aspects, as we II as maki ng these under- standable for the non-specialist. In doing this, the author has not restricted himself to an analysis of the difficult problems but has indicated the necessity and the possibilities for ratio- na l so lutions. The book, therefore, can be a va lueb le deci si on- aid for all those who directly or indirectly are in positions of responsibi lity at various levels of administration or in industry end busi ness. We ll-timed precauti onary measures agai nst a g loba l deteri o- ration of cLimate are not only necessary for reasons of environ- mental protection. They are also an economical end political necessity. The measures include the reduction of the combustion of fossi l fue ls, a more rati one l energy uti l ization, as we II as the establishment of a global equilibrium between forest loss and reforestati on. The Federal German Government takes these potential anthro- pogenic climate changes very seriously. In order to obtein better scientific information, the Federal Government has ini- ti ated an i nterdi sci p l i nary nati one l Climate Programme. At the same time, the Federal Republic of Germany supports the relevant activities within the frame of international cooperation.

Natural and anthropogenic disasters have caused a large number of victims and significant social and economic losses in the last few years. There is no doubt that the risk prevention and disaster management sector needs drastic measures and improvements in order to decrease damage and save lives of inhabitants. Effective utilization of satellite positioning, remote sensing, and GIS in disaster monitoring and management requires research and development in numerous areas: data collection, access and delivery, information extraction and analysis, management and their integration with other data sources (airborne and terrestrial imagery, GIS data, etc.), data standardization, organizational and legal aspects of sharing of remote sensing information. This book provides researchers and practitioners with a good overview of what is being developed in this topical area.

which may be termed 'political. risks'-may be important deter minants of investment. After taking such risks into consideration in the exploration and development stage, a firm computing the pres ent value of its probable income stream must consider several other factors. In addition to the current rate of production, it must con sider these: (I) engineering limits to the rate of extraction in any given period, (2) physical limits to the total amount of the resource that can be produced within a given location, and (3) limits to the availability of new petroleum sources at the same costs as at the present location. It might be useful at this point to note that the firm as an explo ration agent in South-East Asia operates largely as a contractor to the host government who has ownership and final control over the petroleum resources. The group of suppliers of petroleum reserves in the region is characterized by the presence of the major com panies, directly or through subsidiaries, as well as by many small er, and even independent, companies. Three major companies currently dominate exploration and producing operations in two countries-Exxon and Shell in Malaysia, Shell in Brunei. In Indonesia, Caltex and Stanvac dominate production. Outside Malaysia and Brunei the bulk of new exploration is conducted by relatively smaller companies side-by-side with the major companies like Exxon, Gulf, Mobil, Shell, and Texaco."

This book contains most of the invited papers and contributions pre sented at the Symposium/Workshop on Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate which was held at The Ohio State University on 24-28 July 1978. The authors and publisher have made a special effort for rapid publi cation. The length of the individual papers in this book were delib erately limited by the editors. Direct financial support for the Symposium/Workshop was provided by NASA. Palo Alto Billy M. McCormac Columbus Thomas A. Seliga January 1979 xiii SYMPOSIUH/WORKSHOP CONCLUSIONS Billy M. McCormac Department 52-l0/B202 Lockheed Palo Alto Research Laboratory 3251 Hanover Street Palo Alto, CA 94304 USA Thomas A. Seliga Atmospheric Sciences Program The Ohio State University 2015 Neil Avenue Columbus, OH 43210 USA A. INTRODUCTION The Symposium/Workshop on Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate was held at The Ohio State University on 24-28 July 1978. Its purpose was to provide an international forum for the presentation and discussion of recent research results and ideas regarding the question whether variations in solar outputs affect terrestrial weather and cli mate and, if so, to what extent and through what mechanisms. The Sym posium focused on the results of previous studies and consisted of both invited and contributed papers. The Workshop, on the other hand, built upon these deliberations to develop ideas and directions for future research. Over one hundred persons from eight countries attended the Symposium/ Workshop.

Earth system science is traditionally split into various disciplines (Geology, Physics, Meteorology, Oceanography, Biology etc.) and several sub-disciplines. Overall, the diversity of expertise provides a solid base for interdisciplinary research. However, gaining holistic insights into the Earth system requires the integration of observations, paleoclimate data, analysis tools and modeling. These different approaches of Earth system science are rooted in various disciplines that cut across a broad range of timescales. It is, therefore, necessary to link these disciplines at a relatively early stage in PhD programs. The linking of 'data and modeling', as it is the special emphasis in our graduate school, enables graduate students from a variety of disciplines to cooperate and exchange views on the common theme of Earth system science, which leads to a better understanding of processes within a global context.

La obra titulada: "ni creacion ni evolucion" es un tratado sobre la "decodificacion del origen del hombre en la tierra." Mas que un simple libro es una tesis o teoria basada en un analisis logico, minuciosamente elaborado con el fin de demostrar el origen del hombre, de las razas y del tiempo. Se trata de una teoria seria y responsable fundamentada en conceptos y postulados que podrian esclarecer verdades que la humanidad desconoce y ha desconocido por miles de anos las cuales se han mantenido bajo un velo de misterio. Tratamos ademas sobre el reordenamiento del tiempo como elemento basico en la definicion del origen del hombre y de la historia. Es un tratado en el que el ser humano ha de descubrir su verdadera identidad como ser universal descendiente de extra-inteligencias desde antes de su aparicion en la tierra sin que haya pasado por ningun tipo transformacion, experiencia o etapa evolutiva. Esta obra busca dar respuestas claras y precisas a confusiones e interrogantes que la humanidad ha arrastrado durante toda la historia. Los temas a tratar son: 1ro. La decodificacion del origen del hombre en la Biblia. 2do. El origen segun las ciencias. 3ro. Origen de las razas. 4to. Codificacion del tiempo. 5to. Decodificacion del origen despues de los dinosaurios. 6to. Codificacion del futuro.

Hurricanes of the North Atlantic Ocean have left their imprint on the landscape and human cultures for thousands of years. In modern times, fewer lifes have been lost due, in part, to the development of modern communication systems, and to improved understanding of the mechanisms of storm formation and movement. However, the immense growth of human populations in coastal areas, which are at risk to hurricanes, has resulted in very large increases in the amount of property damage sustained in the last decade in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean regions. This book is of interest to climatologists and meteorologists and as source of information for policymakers and emergency management planners.

Practical reservoir engineering techniques have been adequately described in various publications and textbooks, and virtually all useful techniques are suit able for implementation on a digital computer. Computer programs have been written for many of these techniques, but the source programs are usually not available in published form. The purpose of this book is to provide a central source of FORTRAN-coded algorithms for a wide range of conventional reservoir engineering techniques. The book may be used as a supplementary text for courses in practical reservoir engineering. However, the book is primarily intended for practicing reservoir engineers in the hope that the collection of programs provided will greatly facil itate their work. In addition, the book should be also helpful for non-petroleum engineers who are involved in applying the results of reservoir engineering analysis. Sufficient information is provided about each of the techniques to allow the book to be used as a handy reference. ix INTRODUCTION This book provides many of the useful practical reservoir engineering (conven tional) techniques used today in the form of FORTRAN codes. The primaI: y objectives have been to provide the simplest possible method for obtaining reli able answers to practical problems. Unfortunately, these codes can usually be applied by simply following a cookbook approach. However, if at all possible, the solutions obtained should be verified and cross-checked by some other means and, most important, should be checked for reasonability."

Within the framework of Ispra Courses, a course on "Applications of Remote Sensing to Agrometeorology" was held from April 6th to 10th, 1987 at the Joint Research Centre of the European Communities, Ispra Italy. The purpose of the course was to familiarize scientists, active in Agrometeorology and related fields, with remote sensing techniques and their potential applications in their respective disciplines. Conventional ground investigations in various fields of natural sciences such as hydrology, pedology and agrometeorology can be supple mented by a range of instruments carried by airborne or earth orbiting platforms. The last few years, in particular, have seen many developments in this respect and a growing amount of information can now be derived not only from dedicated earth resources satellites such as the LANDSAT and SPOT, but also from other platforms such as METEOSAT and the series of NOAA-TIROS. Future platforms (ERS-l, Space Station, etc.) with their advanced sensors will further broaden the range of applications open to the investigators. The use of these data sources, together with field investigations, can lead, at a reduced cost, to a better characterization of the spatial and temporal properties of natural systems."

components dissolve. The alumino silicate minerals are the great example of the incongruent class, releasing Na], K+, HCO-, etc. ions in reaction with J water but retaining most of their atoms in re-ordered solids such as kaolinite. The karst minerals are all congruent in normal conditions. Incongruent solution of dolomite and precipitation of calcite may occur in some exceptional conditions mentioned later. The sample of congruent minerals in Table 3. 1 contains all the common elements of crustal rocks except Fe, and furnishes a majority of the common dissolved inorganic species. The range of solubility is enormou . Gibbsite is an example that is insoluble to all intents and purposes; even in the most favourable circumstances encountered on the surface of this planet physical processes will disaggregate it and remove it as colloids or larger grains before there is significant solution damage. Rock salt (halite) is so soluble that it is rapidly destroyed in outcrop except in the driest places; it is principally important for its role in interstratal karstification. Sylvite and mirabilite are rarely encountered and never in great bulk. They occur as minor secondary cave minerals (see section 8. 4). Gypsum and anhydrite are quite common in outcrop. Karst features develop upon them rapidly because of their comparatively high solubility. Limestone and dolomite are common in outcrop. Their maximum solubility varies with environmental conditions but never approaches that of gypsum. Quartzite and siliceous sandstones are equally common in outcrop.

Since 1962 the Desert Institute of the former Academy of Science of the USSR has been conducting research work in the arid and semi-arid zones of central Asia. This outstanding experience in desert and desertification problems, and the possibilities of sustainable land use under difficult environmental conditions is summarized here. The book also gives an overview of the Institute's consulting work within the framework of international projects. This is the first publication allowing readers outside the Russian-speaking world to obtain concise information about the specific constraints and development possibilities of central Asian drylands.

Rapidly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, emerging evidence of global warming and the threat of uncontrollable climate feedback mechan:i,sms are now triggering international action to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. In 1989 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established by the United Nations Environment Pro gramme and the World Meteorological Organization, started preparations for an international convention on climate. This convention is to be followed by protocols (agreements) on the reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases and other measures and implementation mechanisms to preserve the global climate. After the CFC's, CO is the next in line, as the sources 2 and abatement measures for CH and N 0 are as yet insuffi 4 2 ciently understood. However, the abatement of CO . is a far 2 reaching issue. It will require major changes wi thin the most important sectors of the economy: energy (production and use) and agriculture (deforestations and land use pat terns). Given this situation it is not so surprising that national governments are hesitant to take action. One reason is the remaining uncertainty regarding the rat,e and the extent of climate change. However, further analysis will show that the uncertainties will be outweighed by the increasing risks when measures to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases are delayed.