In this book the author investigates the impact of demographic change on economic growth. As a result of the current financial crisis, a new view on economics has been demanded by various scientists. The author provides such a new view on economic growth, using a methodology of system dynamics. By applying this method, the author focuses on characteristics of complex systems and analyzes aging and shrinking processes, and not only positive growth. Delays and feedback processes are also considered. This leads to deeper and revealing insights into economic behavior. In doing so, a new semi-endogenous growth model is developed by introducing a specific and detailed population sector (demographic growth model). The book shows and analyzes the behavior of such a model and tests several policy scenarios in a transfer chapter to apply the new theoretical approach on real world problems. The major results are summarized in 15 principles of demographic growth.

The Sources and Nature of the Statistics of the United Kingdom, produced under th~ auspices of the Royal Statistical Society and edited by Maurice Kendall, filled a notable gap on the library shelves when it made its appearance in the early post-war years. Through a series of critical reviews by many of the foremost national experts, it constituted a valuable contemporary guide to statisticians working in many fields as well as a bench-mark to which historians of the development of Statistics in this country are likely to return again and again. The Social Science Research Council* and the Society were both delighted when Professor Maunder came forward with the proposal that a revised version should be produced, indicating as well his willingness to take on the onerous task of editor. The two bodies were more than happy to act as co-sponsors of the project and to help in its planning through a joint steering committee. The result, we are confident, will be judged a worthy successor to the previous volumes by the very much larger 'statistics public' that has come into being in the intervening years. Mrs SUZANNE REEVE Mrs E. J. SNELL Secretary Honorary Secretary Economic and Social Research Council Royal Statistical Society *SSRC is now the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). vii MEMBERSHIP OF JOINT STEERING COMMITTEE (December 1986) Chairman: Miss S. V. Cunliffe Representing the Royal Statistical Society: Mr M. C. Fessey Dr S. Rosenbaum Mrs E. J.

The historical records of Ch'ing China (1644-1911) contain numerous statistics concerning the population in local areas and the distribution of markets. These figures provide information on two of the most important and least understood factors that were to affect China's modern development: the massive population growth prior to 1850 and the tenacity of small-scale markets as the focus of commercialisation. This book presents and evaluates the data from northern China to ascertain the quality of available records and to determine what they can tell is about variations from area to area and from period to period. The analysis of population centres on sex rations, age distributions, mean household size and growth rates. Without overlooking limitations in the data, this study emphasises the implications of the findings for general problems in the social history of the Ch'ing period.

This is a book about the population of London during the early modern period and a detailed book about the population of a European metropolitan city at that time. Much is now known about the historical demography of rural England, but very little is understood about the larger towns and cities. Roger Finlay applies new techniques in historical demography, principally family reconstitution and aggregative analysis of parish registers, to study the growth of population in London. He shows that parish registers are as reliable for the analysis of population trends in London as in rural England. The death rate was much higher in London than in the countryside, and this difference was not offset by a markedly higher birth rate, so the population would have declined but for migration. There were striking variations in both fertility and mortality between contrasting social areas of London.

Applied Latent Class Analysis introduces several innovations in latent class analysis to a wider audience of researchers. Many of the world's leading innovators in the field of latent class analysis contributed essays to this volume, each presenting a key innovation to the basic latent class model and illustrating how it can prove useful in situations typically encountered in actual research.

This book examines how transformations in Brazil's social, economic and political organization affect the demographic behaviour of people who live in different parts of the country and who occupy different positions in the social system. The authors review the history of unequal development and document the concentration of income and land ownership. Using data from the 1970 and 1980 censuses, they show how the Brazilian style of economic growth unequally affected different population subgroups. Mortality estimates for white and non-white people measure the consequences of racial inequality on the life chances of children. Other chapters investigate rural out-migration, the impact of Amazon colonization schemes on rural poverty, and the implications of differential rates of population growth among rich and poor households for future patterns of inequality and underemployment. The overall perspective places the concept of inequality at the centre of the study of demographic and structural change.

This book is about social change in the Soviet Union. It explores the way in which the social, economic and political transformations encompassed by modernization affect values and behaviours. Its analytical focus is the family and the system of norms and values governing sex roles and familial relations. The study is part of a larger effort to unravel the complex linkages between modernization, value change, demographic change and public policy. It has two related objectives. First, it explores the relationship between value change and fertility, using statistical material from the Soviet census, birth registry, and social surveys, to test specific hypotheses relating to the modernization/value change relationship. Second, it examines the impact of public policies, both intended and unintended, on family values and fertility trends. A model of Soviet fertility dynamics, based on the empirical findings of the study, is also presented.

Does human mortality after age 110 continue to rise, level off, or start to decline? This book describes a concerted, international research effort undertaken with the goal of establishing a database that allows the best possible description of the mortality trajectory beyond the age of 110. The International Database on Longevity (IDL) is the result of this ongoing effort. The IDL contains exhaustive information on validated cases of supercentenarians (people 110 years and older) and allows unbiased estimates of mortality after age 110. The main finding is remarkable: human mortality after age 110 is flat at a probability of death of 50% per year. The sixteen chapters of this book discuss age validation of exceptional longevity, data on supercentenarians in a series of countries, structure and contents of the IDL, and statistical analysis of human mortality after age 110. Several chapters include short accounts of specific supercentenarians that add life to demographic research.

Today, India still remains a rural agricultural country although the share of urban population has also increased but these figures do not tell the whole story. There are evidences that urban growth is dispersed and urban sprawl promotes the spread of urban land use into the rural-urban fringe.

Here the attempt is to investigate the land transformation and the driving forces which were influencing the land transformation. The present study was done on peri urban interface of Aligarh city, a relatively small city, but as other north Indian cities, it is also expanding rapidly. Moreover, it too is surrounded by a populous rural area with productive and rich agricultural hinterland. Such conditions give rise to many conflicts and mutually beneficial complementarities in the rural and urban spheres.

The result shows that the demand for land is high which results in informal urban development fulfilling the requirements of many of the city s residents. Every piece of land is a tradable commodity, and the pursuit of short-term profits is the predominant ethic. The actors in PUI are strong because it is characterized by intermixing of rural and urban activities and interests as well as the number of actors are greater than in any other area.."

As public expenditures on health, education and transfer programmes increase, demographic change has a growing impact on public expenditures, and the incentives for behaviour created by public transfer programs increase as well. The essays in this volume discuss such topics as: demographic change and the outlook for Social Security and Medicare in the United States; long-term decision making under uncertainty; the effect of changing family structure on government spending; how the structure of public retirement policies has encouraged early retirement in some countries and not others; the response of local community spending to demographic change; and related topics. Contributors include many of the world's leading public finance economists and economic demographers.

Paleodemography is the field of enquiry that attempts to identify demographic parameters from past populations (usually skeletal samples) derived from archaeological contexts, and then to make interpretations regarding the health and well-being of those populations. However, paleodemographic theory relies on several assumptions that cannot easily be validated by the researcher, and if incorrect, can lead to large errors or biases. In this book, physical anthropologists, mathematical demographers and statisticians tackle these methodological issues for reconstructing demographic structure for skeletal samples. Topics discussed include how skeletal morphology is linked to chronological age, assessment of age from the skeleton, demographic models of mortality and their interpretation, and biostatistical approaches to age structure estimation from archaeological samples. This work will be of immense importance to anyone interested in paleodemography, including biological and physical anthropologists, demographers, geographers, evolutionary biologists and statisticians.

In this detailed study of population change in Norway in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, Dr Drake has assembled a great deal of literary and statistical material. He pays particular attention to the interplay between marriage, economic conditions, social custom and fertility. The book also introduces English readers to the writings of Eilert Sundt, a very productive pioneer sociologist whose important work of the 1850s and 1860s is little known outside Scandinavia. Malthus's work, by comparison, is shown to be much less reliable. As Dr Drake demonstrates, remarkably reliable and comprehensive demographic statistics are available in Norway in the century before industrialization. This case study is therefore a valuable contribution to the debate amongst historians on the demographic characteristics of the pre-industrial west and the links between population change and industrialization. His conclusions are also clearly relevant to the current international discussion on the relationship between population change and economic and social conditions in under developed countries.

Confounding all conventional wisdom, the fertility rate in the Islamic Republic of Iran fell from around 7.0 births per woman in the early 1980s to 1.9 births per woman in 2006. That this, the largest and fastest fall in fertility ever recorded, should have occurred in one of the world s few Islamic Republics demands explanation. This book, based upon a decade of research is the first to attempt such an explanation. The book documents the progress of the fertility decline and displays its association with social and economic characteristics. It addresses an explanation of the phenomenal fall of fertility in this Islamic context by considering the relevance of standard theories of fertility transition. The book is rich in data as well as the application of different demographic methods to interpret the data. All the available national demographic data are used in addition to two major surveys conducted by the authors. Demographic description is preceded by a socio-political history of Iran in recent decades, providing a context for the demographic changes. The authors conclude with their views on the importance of specific socio-economic and political changes to the demographic transition. Their concluding arguments suggest continued low fertility in Iran.

The book is recommended to not only demographers, social scientists, and gender specialists, but also to policy makers and those who are interested in social and demographic changes in Iran and other Islamic countries in the Middle East. It is also a useful reference for demography students and researchers who are interested in applying fertility theories in designing surveys and analysing data."

Published in two volumes, these books provide a student audience with an excellent scholarly edition of Malthus' Essay on Population. Written in 1798 as a polite attack on post-French revolutionary speculations on the theme of social and human perfectibility, it remains one of the most powerful statements of the limits to human hopes set by the tension between population growth and natural resources. Based on the authoritative variorum edition of the versions of the Essay published between 1803 and 1826, and complete with full introduction and bibliographic apparatus, this edition is intended to show how Malthusianism impinges on the history of political thought, and how the author's reputation as a population theorist and political economist was established.

First published in 1988, this reissue presents a comprehensive overview of contemporary developments and research into the geography of the Third World, at a time when economies and societies there were changing at a much more rapid rate than their counterparts in the developing world. It covers the topic both systematically and by region, showing how the unique background of each region affects developments there.

There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.

European Populations: Unity in Diversity was the general theme of the 1999 European Population Conference, which convened in The Hague (The Netherlands) from 30 August to 3 September on behalf of the European Association for Population Studies (EAPS), The International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, (IUSSP), The Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), Statistics Netherlands (SN), and The Netherlands Demographic Society (NVD). On the threshold of the third millennium, Europe is facing major and challenging demographic issues that, to a large extent, will shape its future. These challenges formed the basis for selecting special underlying themes for the plenary sessions at the conference. Four outstanding population experts were invited to present their views. Written versions of their presentations form the contents of this book. Dirk van de Kaa (The Netherlands) describes Europe and its population. Henri Leridon (France) addresses the question How do Europeans plan their families?'. Giuseppe Gesano (Italy) considers the relationship between demographic trends and the labour market, and Marek Okolski (Poland) writes about Europe's recent international migration history."

A Population History of the Huron-Petun, A.D. 500-1650, reconstructs the population history of the Wendat-Tionontate (Huron-Petun) people using archaeological, paleodemographic, historical, and epidemiological research. This book argues that the Wendat-Tionontate occupied southern Ontario for thousands of years and that maize agriculture was gradually adopted by groups who were not experiencing population pressure, but who were simply interested in supplementing their hunting, gathering, and fishing diet with a reliable food that could also be stored to avert winter famine deaths. The book demonstrates that gradual population growth followed the adoption of maize agriculture, but that rapid population growth did not occur until the fourteenth century, encouraged by the colonization of new lands. The book also documents and explains why epidemic diseases of European origin did not occur among the Wendat-Tionontate and other Native peoples of eastern North America until the 1630s.

Many industrialized countries are facing large problems with their public pension systems in the 21st century. An unfavourable age distribution, with lower population shares in working ages and increasing shares and numbers of elderly persons in the future will lead, under current pension systems, to a drop in contributions and at the same time to sharply rising amounts of benefits paid. This book analyzes the impact of dynamics in age structure and marital status composition on future public pension expenditures in twelve industrialized countries. It shows that there is no demographic response to population ageing at the horizon 2030. Neither an increase in fertility nor an inflow of migrants can rejuvenate national populations, unless fertility and/or migration reach unrealistically high levels. Therefore, the overall conclusion of this book is that demographic variables are of limited help to relieve the burden of future public pension expenditures. Substantial reductions of the public pension burden have to be sought in socioeconomic measures, and not in adjusting demographic conditions. The book includes various demographic and pension scenarios for pension costs in the coming decades for Austria, Canada, the Czech and Slovak Republics, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, and Sweden. Not only old age pensions, but also disability and survivor pensions have been investigated. Variant projections were calculated for changes in demographic, labour force, and pension system variables. In addition, separate case studies for three countries deal with: a pension system in Austria in which benefits depend on the number children ever born; the impact of household dynamics on social security in the Netherlands, not just marriage and marriage dissolution; and with the consequences of economic growth for public pensions in Sweden.

Inverse Projection is a method for estimating accurate demographic indicators of a population where vital registration data are available, but population censuses are lacking or unreliable. The book offers an overview of the present state of methodological development in the field of inverse projection techniques. In the various chapters of the book, leading experts in demography and related fields review the method, discuss recent extensions, test performances, and stress differences of the various procedures. The book is intended for all scientists who are interested in the reconstruction of demographic scenarios in particular situations, with specific kinds of data, as well as for statisticians and mathematicians who are attracted by this fascinating field of application.

The Life Table covers various important issues in life table construction and use. G. Wunsch presents a non-technical overview of the life table in the first chapter. G. Calot and A. Franco then give a detailed account of the estimation of the probability of dying between two consecutive ages, taking migration and the distribution of population at risk into account. E. Valkovics compares various methods of decomposing the difference in life expectancies. J. Anson deals with the problem of finding suitable indicators summarising the age distribution of mortality. Two chapters, respectively by G. Caselli and by E. Tabeau, F. Willekens, and F. van Poppel, are devoted to age, period, and cohort effects in mortality. Three chapters then deal more specifically with mortality by cause of death. F. Mesle first discusses the problem of adequately registering these causes. A.E. Kunst, J.P. Mackenbach, H. Lautenbach, F.B. Oei, and F. Bijlsma examine the gains in life expectancy obtained by eliminating major causes of death, taking into account competing causes of death. J. Duchene presents an introduction to multi-state morbidity-mortality models by cause. The competing risks model is thoroughly analysed by M. Mouchart and J.M. Rolin. E. Camboid and J.M. Robine show how the life table model can be extended for the assessment of the global health level of a population. The book ends with a concluding chapter by Jon Anson, which puts life table analysis in a broader sociological perspective.

Bernard (Barney) Berelson had a major influence in the application of social science concepts and methods to population policy during the period from 1962 to 1980. This was the period when concern with population problems spread from a relatively small group of scholars and population activists to a much larger, diverse, international group of political and intellectual leaders and to the general public as well. There was an exponential growth in the number of scholars and service personnel in vari ous population and family specialities in this period. Barney came into the field with his appointment as Director of the Com munication Research Program of The Population Council in 1962. He had no previous training or experience in demography. Frank Notestein, Presi dent of The Population Council at the time, had the wisdom to appreciate the value and relevance of Barney's itTIpressive background in communica tion research and other social science areas, as well as his creative mind and leadership qualities. His influence on the Council's rapidly expanding program was so immediate and impressive that within a year, he was named Vice President. When Frank Notestein retired in 1968, Barney became President, a post he held for 6 very productive years."

This book assembles researchers in demography, statistics, political science, sociology, anthropology, history, geography, economics and law to offer fresh insight on the demographic causes and consequences of armed conflict. Cause studies consider migration, ethnicity, population growth and youth bulges. Studies on consequences of conflict include mortality from conflict, casualty estimation for prosecution of war crimes, and case studies of conflicts in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cambodia, Kenya, Mali, Rwanda, Sudan and Uganda.

How should life expectancy be calculated? More generally, how should life - bles be estimated? Since John Graunt's pioneering contribution, read before theRoyalSocietyofLondonat6p. m. onthe27thofFebruary1661, demog- phers have developed better and better methods. Some concerns were raised, including concerns about how to deal with heterogeneous populations p- lished in an article inDemography in 1979 that I wrote with Kenneth Manton and Eric Stallard. Yet, a few years ago nearly all demographers believed that as long as the underlying population and death counts were accurate, then lifetables could be reliably estimated. John Bongaarts and Gri? Feeney launched a revolutionary assault on this dogma. Two key contributions by them are reprinted in Part I of this mo- graph. Some very good demographers agreed, as least in part, with B- gaarts' and Feeney's radical argument that when death rates are changing, then tempo e?ects distort conventional calculations of life expectancy. Other very good demographers disagreed. So John Bongaarts and I brought some leading demographers together in a research meeting, co-sponsored by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and the Population Co- cil and held in New York City on November 18 and 19, 2004. Many of the papers discussed at the workshop, generally after considerable revision, were published in Demographic Research in 2005 and 2006. Nine of these articles, in some cases somewhat revised, are published in this monograph: they are the ?rst seven chapters in Part II and the two chapters in Part III.

This book is the reference on indirect sampling and the generalised weight share method. It reviews the different developments done by the author on these subjects. In addition to the underlying theory, the book presents different possible applications that drive its interest. The reader will find in this book the answer to questions that come, inevitably, when working in a context of indirect sampling.