Navigating Time and Space in Population Studies presents innovative approaches to long-standing questions about the diffusion of population and demographic behavior across space and over time. This collection utilizes newly-available historical data along with spatially and temporally explicit analytical methods to evaluate and refine core demographic theories and to pose new questions about mortality and fertility transitions, migration, urbanization, and social inequality. It adds a spatial dimension to the analysis of temporal processes and a temporal element to spatial processes. Chapters cover a broad range of geographical settings, including the United States, Europe, Latin America, and the Islamic world, and span time periods from the eighteenth to twentieth century. Contributors from a variety of disciplines reveal the complexity of factors involved in population processes that spread across space and unfold over time, and demonstrate a rich set of tools with which to explore, analyze, and test the spatial and temporal dynamics of these phenomena. The theories, methods, and substantive findings presented here provide new lenses through which to view time and space in population studies, offering useful models and valuable insights to demographers and other social scientists exploring both historical and contemporary questions about population dynamics anywhere in the world.

This book examines a rapidly emerging new topic in urban settlement patterns: the role of shrinking cities. Much coverage is given to declining fertility rates, ageing populations and economic restructuring as the factors behind shrinking cities, but there is also reference to resource depletion, the demise of single-company towns and the micro-location of environmental hazards. The contributions show that shrinkage can occur at any scale - from neighbourhood to macro-region - and they consider whether shrinkage of metropolitan areas as a whole may be a future trend. Also addressed in this volume is the question of whether urban shrinkage policies are necessary or effective. The book comprises four parts: world or regional issues (with reference to the European Union and Latin America); national case studies (the United States, India, China, Korea, Taiwan, Germany, Romania and Estonia); city case studies (Detroit, Buffalo, Cleveland, Naples, Belfast and Halle); and broad issues such as the environmental consequences of shrinking cities. This book will be of interest to scholars and practitioners working in the fields of urban studies, economic geography and public policy.

This book examines a rapidly emerging new topic in urban settlement patterns: the role of shrinking cities. Much coverage is given to declining fertility rates, ageing populations and economic restructuring as the factors behind shrinking cities, but there is also reference to resource depletion, the demise of single-company towns and the micro-location of environmental hazards. The contributions show that shrinkage can occur at any scale - from neighbourhood to macro-region - and they consider whether shrinkage of metropolitan areas as a whole may be a future trend. Also addressed in this volume is the question of whether urban shrinkage policies are necessary or effective. The book comprises four parts: world or regional issues (with reference to the European Union and Latin America); national case studies (the United States, India, China, Korea, Taiwan, Germany, Romania and Estonia); city case studies (Detroit, Buffalo, Cleveland, Naples, Belfast and Halle); and broad issues such as the environmental consequences of shrinking cities. This book will be of interest to scholars and practitioners working in the fields of urban studies, economic geography and public policy.

This volume, "Fertility of Immigrants: A Two-Generational Approach in Germany" by Dr. Nadja Milewski, is the sixth book of a series of Demographic Research Monographs published by Springer Verlag. Dr. Milewski is now working for the University of Rostock, but at the time she wrote the book, she was a research scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. The book is a slightly-revised version of her doctoral dissertation ("Fertility of Immigrants and Their Descendants in West Germany: An Event History Approach"), which she completed at the Max Planck Institute and submitted to the University of Rostock. She was awarded highest honors, summa cum laude, for her dissertation. As Professor Jan Hoem wrote in his review of Dr. Milewski's dissertation, the research focuses on the patterns and levels of childbearing among immigrant women. Given Germany's varied immigration experience with refugees, asylum seekers, guest workers, and foreign-born persons of German ancestry, Dr. Milewski's topic is of particular interest, especially with regard to differences in the patterns and levels of childbearing among various kinds of immigrants to Germany vs. native-born Germans. Numerous empirical and theoretical studies of childbearing among immigrants to various countries have been published and Dr. Milewski carefully reviews them. While earlier studies have tended to be rather fragmentary, particularly for European populations, Dr. Milewski's research provides a comp- hensive picture of the recent female fertility of post-war migrants and their desc- dants in West Germany, with an emphasis on migrants who came to Germany to work.

In the 50 years that have passed since Alfred Latka's death in 1949 his position as the father of mathematical demography has been secure. With his first demographic papers in 1907 and 1911 (the latter co authored with F. R. Sharpe) he laid the foundations for stable population theory, and over the next decades both largely completed it and found convenient mathematical approximations that gave it practical applica tions. Since his time, the field has moved in several directions he did not foresee, but in the main it is still his. Despite Latka's stature, however, the reader still needs to hunt through the old journals to locate his principal works. As yet no exten sive collections of his papers are in print, and for his part he never as sembled his contributions into a single volume in English. He did so in French, in the two part Theorie Analytique des Associations Biologiques (1934, 1939). Drawing on his Elements of Physical Biology (1925) and most of his mathematical papers, Latka offered French readers insights into his biological thought and a concise and mathematically accessible summary of what he called recent contributions in demographic analy sis. We would be accurate in also calling it Latka's contributions in demographic analysis.

America is quickly going grey. There are more Americans alive today over the age of 80 than ever before in our history; by 2030, that number is expected to almost triple. But when we discuss how long people live, we must also consider how well they live. Aging Our Way follows the everyday lives of 30 elders (ages 85-102) living at home and mostly alone to understand how they create and maintain meaningful lives for themselves. Through extensive interviews, Meika Loe explores how elders navigate the practical challenges of living as independently as possible while staying healthy, connected, and comfortable. Aging Our Way celebrates these men and women as they really are: lively, complicated, engaging people finding creative ways to make their aging as meaningful and manageable as possible. Written with remarkable warmth and depth of understanding, Aging Our Way offers a vivid look at a group of people who too often remain invisible-those who have lived the longest - and all they have to teach us.

This book provides in-depth comparative studies of the two largest cities and metropolitan areas in the United States: New York City and Los Angeles. The chapters, written by leading experts and based upon the most current information available from the Census and other sources, discuss and explicitly compare politics, economic prospects and the financial crisis, and a host of social issues. Reform movements in education, ethnic politics, budget stringency, strategies to deal with crime, the development and political context of infrastructure, rising inequality, immigration and immigrant communities, the segregation of the poor and minorities and the new segregation of the economic elite, environmental impacts and attempts to deal with them, the image of both cities and regions in the movies, architectural trends, and the differential impact and response to the financial crisis, including foreclosure patterns, are all examined in this volume. This comparative framework reveals that old paradigms such as urban "decline" or "resurgence" are inadequate for grasping the new challenges and complexities facing America's two major global cities. Each is responding in sometimes similar and different ways to the challenges brought on by two events that defined the last decade: the attack of 9/11 and its aftermath, and the continuing effects of the financial crisis. How all of these events, institutions, and trends play out in the New York and Los Angeles regions is important not only for the two cities, but also as a harbinger for other U.S. cities, the entire nation, and cities worldwide. New York and Los Angeles provides an essential guide for understanding the many forces that determine the future of our cities.

In this book the author investigates the impact of demographic change on economic growth. As a result of the current financial crisis, a new view on economics has been demanded by various scientists. The author provides such a new view on economic growth, using a methodology of system dynamics. By applying this method, the author focuses on characteristics of complex systems and analyzes aging and shrinking processes, and not only positive growth. Delays and feedback processes are also considered. This leads to deeper and revealing insights into economic behavior. In doing so, a new semi-endogenous growth model is developed by introducing a specific and detailed population sector (demographic growth model). The book shows and analyzes the behavior of such a model and tests several policy scenarios in a transfer chapter to apply the new theoretical approach on real world problems. The major results are summarized in 15 principles of demographic growth.

The Sources and Nature of the Statistics of the United Kingdom, produced under th~ auspices of the Royal Statistical Society and edited by Maurice Kendall, filled a notable gap on the library shelves when it made its appearance in the early post-war years. Through a series of critical reviews by many of the foremost national experts, it constituted a valuable contemporary guide to statisticians working in many fields as well as a bench-mark to which historians of the development of Statistics in this country are likely to return again and again. The Social Science Research Council* and the Society were both delighted when Professor Maunder came forward with the proposal that a revised version should be produced, indicating as well his willingness to take on the onerous task of editor. The two bodies were more than happy to act as co-sponsors of the project and to help in its planning through a joint steering committee. The result, we are confident, will be judged a worthy successor to the previous volumes by the very much larger 'statistics public' that has come into being in the intervening years. Mrs SUZANNE REEVE Mrs E. J. SNELL Secretary Honorary Secretary Economic and Social Research Council Royal Statistical Society *SSRC is now the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). vii MEMBERSHIP OF JOINT STEERING COMMITTEE (December 1986) Chairman: Miss S. V. Cunliffe Representing the Royal Statistical Society: Mr M. C. Fessey Dr S. Rosenbaum Mrs E. J.

This book provides a fresh perspective on the population history of Italy during the late Republic. It employs a range of sources and a multidisciplinary approach to investigate demographic trends and the demographic behaviour of Roman citizens. Dr Hin shows how they adapted to changing economic, climatic and social conditions in a period of intense conquest. Her critical evaluation of the evidence on the demographic toll taken by warfare and rising societal complexity leads her to a revisionist 'middle count' scenario of population development in Italy. In tracing the population history of an ancient conquest society, she provides an accessible pathway into Roman demography which focuses on the three main demographic parameters - mortality, fertility and migration. She unites literary and epigraphic sources with demographic theory, archaeological surveys, climatic and skeletal evidence, models and comparative data. Tables, figures and maps enable readers to visualise the quantitative dynamics at work.

What happens to a society that has too many men? In this provocative book, Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer argue that, historically, high male-to-female ratios often trigger domestic and international violence. Most violent crime is committed by young unmarried males who lack stable social bonds. Although there is not always a direct cause-and-effect relationship, these surplus men often play a crucial role in making violence prevalent within society. Governments sometimes respond to this problem by enlisting young surplus males in military campaigns and high-risk public works projects. Countries with high male-to-female ratios also tend to develop authoritarian political systems.Hudson and den Boer suggest that the sex ratios of many Asian countries, particularly China and India -- which represent almost 40 percent of the world's population -- are being skewed in favor of males on a scale that may be unprecedented in human history. Through offspring sex selection (often in the form of sex-selective abortion and female infanticide), these countries are acquiring a disproportionate number of low-status young adult males, called "bare branches" by the Chinese.Hudson and den Boer argue that this surplus male population in Asia's largest countries threatens domestic stability and international security. The prospects for peace and democracy are dimmed by the growth of bare branches in China and India, and, they maintain, the sex ratios of these countries will have global implications in the twenty-first century.

Does human mortality after age 110 continue to rise, level off, or start to decline? This book describes a concerted, international research effort undertaken with the goal of establishing a database that allows the best possible description of the mortality trajectory beyond the age of 110. The International Database on Longevity (IDL) is the result of this ongoing effort. The IDL contains exhaustive information on validated cases of supercentenarians (people 110 years and older) and allows unbiased estimates of mortality after age 110. The main finding is remarkable: human mortality after age 110 is flat at a probability of death of 50% per year. The sixteen chapters of this book discuss age validation of exceptional longevity, data on supercentenarians in a series of countries, structure and contents of the IDL, and statistical analysis of human mortality after age 110. Several chapters include short accounts of specific supercentenarians that add life to demographic research.

Today, India still remains a rural agricultural country although the share of urban population has also increased but these figures do not tell the whole story. There are evidences that urban growth is dispersed and urban sprawl promotes the spread of urban land use into the rural-urban fringe.

Here the attempt is to investigate the land transformation and the driving forces which were influencing the land transformation. The present study was done on peri urban interface of Aligarh city, a relatively small city, but as other north Indian cities, it is also expanding rapidly. Moreover, it too is surrounded by a populous rural area with productive and rich agricultural hinterland. Such conditions give rise to many conflicts and mutually beneficial complementarities in the rural and urban spheres.

The result shows that the demand for land is high which results in informal urban development fulfilling the requirements of many of the city s residents. Every piece of land is a tradable commodity, and the pursuit of short-term profits is the predominant ethic. The actors in PUI are strong because it is characterized by intermixing of rural and urban activities and interests as well as the number of actors are greater than in any other area.."

Confounding all conventional wisdom, the fertility rate in the Islamic Republic of Iran fell from around 7.0 births per woman in the early 1980s to 1.9 births per woman in 2006. That this, the largest and fastest fall in fertility ever recorded, should have occurred in one of the world s few Islamic Republics demands explanation. This book, based upon a decade of research is the first to attempt such an explanation. The book documents the progress of the fertility decline and displays its association with social and economic characteristics. It addresses an explanation of the phenomenal fall of fertility in this Islamic context by considering the relevance of standard theories of fertility transition. The book is rich in data as well as the application of different demographic methods to interpret the data. All the available national demographic data are used in addition to two major surveys conducted by the authors. Demographic description is preceded by a socio-political history of Iran in recent decades, providing a context for the demographic changes. The authors conclude with their views on the importance of specific socio-economic and political changes to the demographic transition. Their concluding arguments suggest continued low fertility in Iran.

The book is recommended to not only demographers, social scientists, and gender specialists, but also to policy makers and those who are interested in social and demographic changes in Iran and other Islamic countries in the Middle East. It is also a useful reference for demography students and researchers who are interested in applying fertility theories in designing surveys and analysing data."

There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.

First published in 1988, this reissue presents a comprehensive overview of contemporary developments and research into the geography of the Third World, at a time when economies and societies there were changing at a much more rapid rate than their counterparts in the developing world. It covers the topic both systematically and by region, showing how the unique background of each region affects developments there.

European Populations: Unity in Diversity was the general theme of the 1999 European Population Conference, which convened in The Hague (The Netherlands) from 30 August to 3 September on behalf of the European Association for Population Studies (EAPS), The International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, (IUSSP), The Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), Statistics Netherlands (SN), and The Netherlands Demographic Society (NVD). On the threshold of the third millennium, Europe is facing major and challenging demographic issues that, to a large extent, will shape its future. These challenges formed the basis for selecting special underlying themes for the plenary sessions at the conference. Four outstanding population experts were invited to present their views. Written versions of their presentations form the contents of this book. Dirk van de Kaa (The Netherlands) describes Europe and its population. Henri Leridon (France) addresses the question How do Europeans plan their families?'. Giuseppe Gesano (Italy) considers the relationship between demographic trends and the labour market, and Marek Okolski (Poland) writes about Europe's recent international migration history."

Many industrialized countries are facing large problems with their public pension systems in the 21st century. An unfavourable age distribution, with lower population shares in working ages and increasing shares and numbers of elderly persons in the future will lead, under current pension systems, to a drop in contributions and at the same time to sharply rising amounts of benefits paid. This book analyzes the impact of dynamics in age structure and marital status composition on future public pension expenditures in twelve industrialized countries. It shows that there is no demographic response to population ageing at the horizon 2030. Neither an increase in fertility nor an inflow of migrants can rejuvenate national populations, unless fertility and/or migration reach unrealistically high levels. Therefore, the overall conclusion of this book is that demographic variables are of limited help to relieve the burden of future public pension expenditures. Substantial reductions of the public pension burden have to be sought in socioeconomic measures, and not in adjusting demographic conditions. The book includes various demographic and pension scenarios for pension costs in the coming decades for Austria, Canada, the Czech and Slovak Republics, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, and Sweden. Not only old age pensions, but also disability and survivor pensions have been investigated. Variant projections were calculated for changes in demographic, labour force, and pension system variables. In addition, separate case studies for three countries deal with: a pension system in Austria in which benefits depend on the number children ever born; the impact of household dynamics on social security in the Netherlands, not just marriage and marriage dissolution; and with the consequences of economic growth for public pensions in Sweden.

Inverse Projection is a method for estimating accurate demographic indicators of a population where vital registration data are available, but population censuses are lacking or unreliable. The book offers an overview of the present state of methodological development in the field of inverse projection techniques. In the various chapters of the book, leading experts in demography and related fields review the method, discuss recent extensions, test performances, and stress differences of the various procedures. The book is intended for all scientists who are interested in the reconstruction of demographic scenarios in particular situations, with specific kinds of data, as well as for statisticians and mathematicians who are attracted by this fascinating field of application.

The Life Table covers various important issues in life table construction and use. G. Wunsch presents a non-technical overview of the life table in the first chapter. G. Calot and A. Franco then give a detailed account of the estimation of the probability of dying between two consecutive ages, taking migration and the distribution of population at risk into account. E. Valkovics compares various methods of decomposing the difference in life expectancies. J. Anson deals with the problem of finding suitable indicators summarising the age distribution of mortality. Two chapters, respectively by G. Caselli and by E. Tabeau, F. Willekens, and F. van Poppel, are devoted to age, period, and cohort effects in mortality. Three chapters then deal more specifically with mortality by cause of death. F. Mesle first discusses the problem of adequately registering these causes. A.E. Kunst, J.P. Mackenbach, H. Lautenbach, F.B. Oei, and F. Bijlsma examine the gains in life expectancy obtained by eliminating major causes of death, taking into account competing causes of death. J. Duchene presents an introduction to multi-state morbidity-mortality models by cause. The competing risks model is thoroughly analysed by M. Mouchart and J.M. Rolin. E. Camboid and J.M. Robine show how the life table model can be extended for the assessment of the global health level of a population. The book ends with a concluding chapter by Jon Anson, which puts life table analysis in a broader sociological perspective.

Bernard (Barney) Berelson had a major influence in the application of social science concepts and methods to population policy during the period from 1962 to 1980. This was the period when concern with population problems spread from a relatively small group of scholars and population activists to a much larger, diverse, international group of political and intellectual leaders and to the general public as well. There was an exponential growth in the number of scholars and service personnel in vari ous population and family specialities in this period. Barney came into the field with his appointment as Director of the Com munication Research Program of The Population Council in 1962. He had no previous training or experience in demography. Frank Notestein, Presi dent of The Population Council at the time, had the wisdom to appreciate the value and relevance of Barney's itTIpressive background in communica tion research and other social science areas, as well as his creative mind and leadership qualities. His influence on the Council's rapidly expanding program was so immediate and impressive that within a year, he was named Vice President. When Frank Notestein retired in 1968, Barney became President, a post he held for 6 very productive years."

This book assembles researchers in demography, statistics, political science, sociology, anthropology, history, geography, economics and law to offer fresh insight on the demographic causes and consequences of armed conflict. Cause studies consider migration, ethnicity, population growth and youth bulges. Studies on consequences of conflict include mortality from conflict, casualty estimation for prosecution of war crimes, and case studies of conflicts in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cambodia, Kenya, Mali, Rwanda, Sudan and Uganda.

How should life expectancy be calculated? More generally, how should life - bles be estimated? Since John Graunt's pioneering contribution, read before theRoyalSocietyofLondonat6p. m. onthe27thofFebruary1661, demog- phers have developed better and better methods. Some concerns were raised, including concerns about how to deal with heterogeneous populations p- lished in an article inDemography in 1979 that I wrote with Kenneth Manton and Eric Stallard. Yet, a few years ago nearly all demographers believed that as long as the underlying population and death counts were accurate, then lifetables could be reliably estimated. John Bongaarts and Gri? Feeney launched a revolutionary assault on this dogma. Two key contributions by them are reprinted in Part I of this mo- graph. Some very good demographers agreed, as least in part, with B- gaarts' and Feeney's radical argument that when death rates are changing, then tempo e?ects distort conventional calculations of life expectancy. Other very good demographers disagreed. So John Bongaarts and I brought some leading demographers together in a research meeting, co-sponsored by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and the Population Co- cil and held in New York City on November 18 and 19, 2004. Many of the papers discussed at the workshop, generally after considerable revision, were published in Demographic Research in 2005 and 2006. Nine of these articles, in some cases somewhat revised, are published in this monograph: they are the ?rst seven chapters in Part II and the two chapters in Part III.

This book is the reference on indirect sampling and the generalised weight share method. It reviews the different developments done by the author on these subjects. In addition to the underlying theory, the book presents different possible applications that drive its interest. The reader will find in this book the answer to questions that come, inevitably, when working in a context of indirect sampling.

The purpose of this book is to examine the etiology of cancer in large human populations using mathematical models developed from an inter-disciplinary perspective of the population epidemiological, biodemographic, genetic and physiological basis of the mechanisms of cancer initiation and progression. In addition an investigation of how the basic mechanism of tumor initiation relates to general processes of senescence and to other major chronic diseases (e.g., heart disease and stroke) will be conducted.