This stimulating, carefully-researched book on The Late Life Legacy of Very Early Life by Dr. Gabriele Doblhammer is the second volume of a new series of Demographic Research Monographs published by Springer Verlag. The topic of the book is fascinating. Is a person's lifespan influ enced by health and nutrition in-utero and shortly after birth? If so, why? The answers uncovered by the diligence, demographic and statistical ex pertise, and probing intelligence of the author are surprising but convinc ing. To pry open the mystery of the lingering impact of very early life, Dr. Doblharnmer focuses on month of birth. It turns out that people born in some months live substantially longer on average than people born in other months, not because of astrological forces but for reasons of health and nutrition. Dr. Doblhammer was educated in statistics and demography and earlier this year was the first person ever to receive the "Habilitation" de gree, the recognition given in the German-speaking world to proven scho lars who are qualified to become professors, in Demography. This book, which is evidence that she fully deserves this award, will not only provide important new fmdings about the legacy of early life but will also serve as a comprehensive foundation of knowledge on which future scholars can build. The series of Demographic Research Monographs is under the editorial supervision of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Prof. James W. Vaupel, Founding Director of the Institute, is Editor-in-Chief."

New perspectives in interpreting contemporary family and reproductive - haviour of Mediterranean Europe 1. THE NEW GEOGRAPHY OF FERTILITY AND THE FAMILY IN EUROPE The countries of southern Europe have begun to reduce conjugal fertility at a later date compared to most other nations in the west. This has been - plained by means of the category of delay: the backwardness of the pr- esses of accumulation and economic development being seen as the cause of the maintaining of the reproductive models of the past. Moreover, the inf- ence of the Catholic Church in Italy, Spain and Portugal is supposed to have delayed the processes of secularisation, rendering difficult the changes in mentality necessary for assuming modern patterns of reproductive behaviour not only for fertility, but also for the variables which are strictly linked to it, such as sexuality, contraception and abortion (Livi Bacci, 1977; Lesthaeghe and Wilson, 1986). 1. 1. The trends of very low fertility Now the panorama is very different. Since the mid-seventies, southern Europe has been washed by the tide of a lowest-low fertility (i. e. , TFR under 1. 5 for several a prolonged period, Billari et al. , 2003), which in some areas 1 has reached and maintained scarcely imaginable levels for years on end. Conversely, other areas of Europe, where fertility started to fall many d- ades earlier than in the regions of the sourth, have recovered or maintained considerably higher levels of fertility, often close to replacement level.

The impact of religion on family and reproduction is one of the most fascinating and complex topics open to scholarly research. The linkage between family and religion has received no systematic treatment on a comparative basis, either in the social sciences or in historical studies. This book provides new insights into the relationships between religion and demography during the crucial period of the nineteenth and early twentieth century. Apart from providing a wealth of descriptive information on family life and fertility in different national and religious settings, the major strength of the book lies in its conceptual insights. The book will attract and stimulate readers at the advanced undergraduate or at the graduate level in history, religious studies, women s studies, family studies, social demography, sociology, and anthropology due to its subject matter (moral issues related to fertility decline and family change played an important role in processes like secularisation, and religious secessions in the19th and 20th century), its analytical approach (all chapters make use of micro-level data on family and family size and use comparable statistical methods specifically suited for these kinds of data), and its theoretical orientation (the chapters explicitly focus on the variety of mechanisms via which religions had an effect on family life and fertility). The book is truly cross-cultural, showing the similarities as well as the differences in the positions of the various churches on matters important for reproduction in Western Europe, the US and Canada in the period 1850-1950. The consideration of the causes of variations in family size in the past provides a refreshing perspective on contemporary effects of religion on reproductive behaviour and the family.

"This volume successfully promotes an agenda for research on the complex and diverse historical relationships between fertility, identity, community and religion." Simon Szreter, Fellow of St John's College, Cambridge

"These well-researched and lucidly argued papers will provide important reading for all those interested in the religious history of the nineteenth century." Hugh McLeod is Professor of Church History at the University of Birmingham

"This is a very valuable new resource for scholars, both established and new, to understand the role of religious institutions in family and demographic behavior and the ways in which those behaviors change across long periods of time." Arland Thornton, Director, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan

"This book shows also that modern demographic and social history is able to revive the past in ways unthinkable only a generation ago." Massimo Livi-Bacci is Professor of Demography, University of Florence, and honorary president of the "International Union for the Scientific Study of Population." "

Many parts of the world are experiencing rapid demographic restructuring, resulting in an ageing population with increasingly significant work and care pressures on cohorts less able or willing to provide support. This book examines some of the important trends that have underpinned reductions in fertility, including delayed child-bearing and increased childlessness. It demonstrates how relationships between partners have resulted in new living arrangements with changing attitudes from marriage to co-habitation as the social norm, and it considers the health and well-being for particular at risk groups such as the elderly and stepparents as well as aspects of mobility such as household migration and commuting to school.

The book brings together a series of studies that all involve quantitative analyses of secondary data from censuses, surveys or administrative records. The trends and patterns reported provide new and interesting insights into behaviour of the household and the roles of adults and children, and point to questions of critical importance for practitioners and policy makers.

Intergenerational justice has been achieved if the opportunities of the members of the next generation to fulfill their needs are better than those of the members of the preceding generation. For this, each generation ought to leave for the next generation an amount of resources is at least equal to its own amount. The book deals with the complex relationship between intergenerational justice and demographic change and is characterized by its interdisciplinary approach. The authors come from a multitude of professional backgrounds and from several countries. This illustrates the implications of the demographic shift from many different perspectives. The book deals not only with the aspects of economic policy but also with environmental, societal and philosophical issues. The comprehensive volume is composed of five sections that pinpoint demographic trends, examine the impact of demographic changes on key indicators, investigate the relationship between key indicators and intergenerational justice, scrutinize population policies, and finally propose ways to implement long-term thinking on these issues.

This volume provides an ample overview of state-of-the-art understanding of the multi-dimensional phenomenon of migration, in the characterisation of migration drivers, in environmental and agro-economic case studies and modelling issues as well as socio-political analyses. The analysis is geared to the consequences of climatic change, and the effects on soil, water and extreme weather that will drive populations to migrate.

This book provides an up-to-date summary of the consequences of demographic aging for labor markets, financial markets, economic growth, social security schemes and public finances in Germany, essentially reflecting the present state of knowledge in any of these areas. All contributions are written by leading experts in their fields and are based on results that emerge at the forefront of current research.

EDITORS Hans V AN DEN BREKEL * and Fred DEVEN** * NIDI, P. O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, The Netherlands ** CBGS, Markiesstraat 1, 1000 Brussels, Belgium The series "Population and Family in the Low Countries" (POPFAM), established in 1976, aims to introduce selected issues of demographic research in Flanders/Belgium and the Netherlands to an international audience. The publication series results from cooperation between the Nether lands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI, The Hague) and the Flemish Population and Family Study Centre (CBGS, Brussels). This 1995 edition is the 111h in the series. In 1995, the NIDI celebrates its 25th anniversary as the Dutch national demographic institute, making it a special year for Dutch demography. The contents of this publication obviously highlights this event as most articles selected for this edition are written by Dutch or NIDI related scholars. The article "Ageing and the demand for care: scenario studies for Europe" by Hanna van Solinge and Jenny de Jong Gierveld concerns a comparative study with respect to the consequences of ageing populations for the infrastructure of care for the elderly. It presents results of a scenario study on future developments in demand and supply of elderly care services for a selected number of European countries, summarizing an extensive study on the impact of ageing populations on the socio-medical system conducted by the authors on behalf of the European Population Committee of the Council of Europe.

The transition from hunting and gathering to farming - the Neolithic Revolution - was one of the most signi cant cultural processes in human history that forever changed the face of humanity. Natu an communities (15,100-12,000Cal BP) (all dates in this chapter are calibrated before present) planted the seeds of change, and the Pre-Pottery Neolithic (PPN) (ca. 12,000-ca. 8,350Cal BP) people, were the rst to establish farming communities. The revolution was not fully realized until quite late in the PPN and later in the Pottery Neolithic (PN) period. We would like to ask some questions and comment on a few aspects emphas- ing the linkage between biological and cultural developments during the Neolithic Revolution. The biological issues addressed in this chapter are as follows: x Is there a demographic change from the Natu an to the Neolithic? x Is there a change in the overall health of the Neolithic populations compared to the Natu an? x Is there a change in the diet and how is it expressed? x Is there a change in the physical burden/stress people had to bear with? x Is there a change in intra- and inter-community rates of violent encounters? From the cultural perspective the leading questions will be: x What was the change in the economy and when was it fully realized? x Is there a change in settlement patterns and site nature and organization from Natu an to Neolithic? x Is there a change in human activities and division of labor?"

The theoretical results in this monograph indicate that life provides alternative strategies to aging. The groundbreaking findings open a completely new field of research. The author gets away from the human centered vision of life showing that aging in any organism does not necessarily correspond to deterioration and senescence. The central insight of this monograph is: to deeply understand why some species age it is necessary to understand why other species do not.

Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

This book outlines Bayesian statistical analysis in great detail, from the development of a model through the process of making statistical inference. The key feature of this book is that it covers models that are most commonly used in social science research - including the linear regression model, generalized linear models, hierarchical models, and multivariate regression models - and it thoroughly develops each real-data example in painstaking detail.

Since the onset of modernisation the world population has doubled several times and will soon reach 6 billion of people. The annual rate of increase in the world population is approximately 90 million people. This is the largest absolute level of population growth ever recorded. According to the most recent population projections of the United Nations, the world population will probably double again before stabilising at a stationary level. Ninety percent of the present and future population growth is accounted for by developing countries. The fast increase in the size of the population in many developing countries is a serious obstacle to their attempts to overcome their backwardness, make a substantial improvement to their quality of life, and achieve a sustainable way of exploiting their renewable and non-renewable resources. At the same time, non-sustainable consumption and production patterns in the industrial countries and among wealthy citizens in developing countries, place additional burdens on the planet's natural resources and ecosystems. With a view of considering these problems and elaborating policy guidelines, the United Nations staged its International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo, Egypt, September 5-13, 1994. This monograph deals with the background to the ICPD, its preparation, proceedings, and contents. It also evaluates its results and recommendations by comparing the ICPD Action Programme with the current scientific literature. The ICPD dealt with the key issues concerning the interrelations between population, development and environment, and their causes, and was not limited to marginal issues such as abortion, promiscuity and homosexuality as was the impression given in the media as a result of the way these questions were distorted by the action of religious fundamentalists. The ICPD Action Programme forms an impressive charter with a broad range of relevant policy recommendations. Nevertheless, compared to most of the current scientific literature, the ICPD seems to underestimate the seriousness and urgency of the issues at stake.

Low fertility, one of the critical issues in the contemporary world, will persist in the foreseeable future. That is arguably the principal conclusion of this book. Fundamental changes in social security and health care systems, taxation schemes, and migration policies, for instance, are inevitable, unless societies are able to institute effective measures and create favorable conditions for increasing fertility. Such are the unavoidable challenges facing European and other economically advanced countries.

The present study applies the cohort analysis approach to detailed data covering over half of the 20th century for populations of 35 countries. In distinction to most previous studies, that approach is put to use not only for elucidating past trends, but also to capture salient aspects of contemporary fertility patterns. And, beyond that, it is utilized to suggest possible near-term future trends in fertility behavior.

Unique in the multiple approaches that it encompasses, this book includes discussions of both older and younger workers, employer and employee perspectives, generational and age diversity and international comparisons. It includes both conceptual argument and empirical research in order to provide insights into this important area.

This textbook is for graduate students and research workers in social statistics and related subject areas. It follows a novel curriculum developed around the basic statistical activities: sampling, measurement and inference. The monograph aims to prepare the reader for the career of an independent social statistician and to serve as a reference for methods, ideas for and ways of studying of human populations. Elementary linear algebra and calculus are prerequisites, although the exposition is quite forgiving. Familiarity with statistical software at the outset is an advantage, but it can be developed while reading the first few chapters.

Dynamic Population Models is the first book to comprehensively discuss and synthesize the emerging field of dynamic modeling. Incorporating the latest research, it includes thorough discussions of population growth and momentum under gradual fertility declines, the impact of changes in the timing of events on fertility measures, and the complex relationship between period and cohort measures. The book is designed to be accessible to those with only a minimal knowledge of calculus.

This book has been developed from a core of papers selected for the paleodemographic session of the 25th World Population Congress (July 2005, Tours, France). It covers recent paleodemographic innovations, in terms of data, techniques and the detection of patterns making it possible to highlight hitherto unknown prehistoric demographic processes.

This open access book examines the methodological complications of using complexity science concepts within the social science domain. The opening chapters take the reader on a tour through the development of simulation methodologies in the fields of artificial life and population biology, then demonstrates the growing popularity and relevance of these methods in the social sciences. Following an in-depth analysis of the potential impact of these methods on social science and social theory, the text provides substantive examples of the application of agent-based models in the field of demography. This work offers a unique combination of applied simulation work and substantive, in-depth philosophical analysis, and as such has potential appeal for specialist social scientists, complex systems scientists, and philosophers of science interested in the methodology of simulation and the practice of interdisciplinary computing research.

Over the decades, the lines separating young- middle-aged-, and older adults have blurred, as indicated by a broadening of the appropriate years for making life decisions. Not only are many people marrying later, but some are marrying earlier than ever. Overall, women giving birth later, but some are having children earlier in their lives. Older people are retiring later, but some are retiring at a younger age. The spread or variability (standard deviation) of age-based decisions has increased substantially, giving adults greater freedom from the traditional constraints of age. With these relaxed age norms has come a host of related social problems. The relaxation of age norms for adult decision-making has inadvertently blurred the boundaries between adults and teenagers, between teenagers and children. This generalization of the phenomenon throughout the life cycle is responsible for the adultification of childhood. Eight year old girls are, to an increasing extent, being treated as sexual objects; bullying peaks in the 6th grade; larger numbers of girls are having oral sex or sexual intercourse by the age of 15; the pregnancy rate for girls 13-15 is on the rise; we are in the process of dismantling the juvenile justice system in favor of adult forms of punishment; and more and more children are left without adult supervision in the afternoons, as though they were miniature adults who are capable of raising themselves. Jack Levin is the American Sociological Association's 2009 Winner of the "Public Understanding of Sociology" Award. This short book communicates the power and importance of sociological thinking to major, worldwide social trends. Ideal for use in undergraduate courses such as introductory sociology, social problems, and social change as well as more advanced courses in population, or sociology of aging.

Fearing that the future of the nation was at stake following the First World War, German policymakers vastly expanded social welfare programs to shore up women and families. Just over a decade later, the Nazis seized control of the state and created a radically different, racially driven gender and family policy. This book explores Weimar and Nazi policy to highlight the fundamental, far-reaching change wrought by the Nazis and the disparity between national family policy design and its implementation at the local level. Relying on a broad range of sources --including court records, sterilization files, church accounts, and women s oral histories -- it demonstrates how local officials balanced the benefits of marriage, divorce, and adoption against budgetary concerns, church influence, and their own personal beliefs. Throughout both eras individual Germans collaborated with, rebelled against, and evaded state mandates, in the process fundamentally altering the impact of national policy."

Dr Vermeer's study of the economic development on Central Shaanxi province from 1930 until 1988, when this was first published, illustrates the effects of famine, war and construction under Chinese communism. It focuses in particular on the organisational and technical potential of agriculture and industry to make use of the natural advantages of the region. Modernisation in Shaanxi was brought in from outside, with a dominant role for government institutions, and rapidly transformed the face of country and city. The book portrays the growing pains of a frontier economy, examining such crucial natural barriers to agricultural expansion as lack of irrigation water. It describes the technological advances, using clear maps to illustrate the development of transport, population distribution, soils, irrigation projects and cropping patterns. The extensive economy survey of counties in hill and plain areas, based on data from local government and the author's own observations, reveals great regional differences.

Cities are one of the most significant contributors to global climate change. The rapid speed at which urban centers use large amounts of resources adds to the global crisis and can lead to extreme local heat. The Urban Fix addresses how urban design, planning and policies can counter the threats of climate change, urban heat islands and overpopulation, helping cities take full advantage of their inherent advantages and new technologies to catalyze social, cultural and physical solutions to combat the epic, unprecedented challenges humanity faces. The book fills a conspicuous void in the international dialogue on climate change and heat islands by examining both the environmental benefits in developed countries and the population benefit in developing countries. Urban heat islands can be addressed in incremental, manageable steps, such as planting trees and painting roofs white, which provide a more concrete and proactive sense of progress for policymakers and practitioners. This book is invaluable to anyone searching for a better understanding of the impact of resilient cities in the monumental and urgent fight against climate change, and provides the tools to do so.

In this 2003 book, Ralph Bauer presents a comparative investigation of colonial prose narratives in Spanish and British America from 1542 to 1800. He discusses narratives of shipwreck, captivity and travel, as well as imperial and natural histories of the New World in the context of transformative early modern scientific ideologies and investigates the inter-connectedness of literary evolutions in various places of the early modern Atlantic world. Bauer positions the narrative models promoted by the 'New Sciences' during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries within the context of the geopolitical question of how knowledge can be centrally controlled in outwardly expanding empires. This important and highly original study of Early American literature brings into conversation with one another writers from various parts of the early modern Atlantic world including Alvar Nunez Cabeza de Vaca, Gonzalo Fernandez de Oviedo y Valdes, Samuel Purchas, William Strachey, Mary Rowlandson, Carlos de Siguenza y Gongora, William Byrd and Hector St John de Crevecoeur.