This work is a detailed description of the use of Box Jenkins time-series analysis techniques--including autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling--to test two hypotheses relating economic conditions to presidential popularity. . . . Lanoue's model shows the two hypotheses to be interrelated. Rising inflation rates have a negative effect on presidential popularity; falling inflation rates have no impact. These negative impacts are present only for Democratic administrations. Recession--as measured by declining real disposable income--leads to a decline in presidential popularity. Recovery from recession leads to a return in popularity. . . . Despite the clarity of the writing and the separation of the methodological details from most of the substantive discussions, this work is most appropriate for advanced undergraduates, graduate, and research collections. Annals of the American Academy Presidential popularity has been much discussed in recent years. This analysis deals with questions raised by the differing patterns of public approval experienced by the last six U.S. presidents, starting with John Kennedy's administration (Camelot) and concluding with a look at Ronald Reagan, who has often been termed the Teflon President. Lanoue begins with an overview of economics and politics as they relate to presidential popularity. He presents the research design and discusses the methodology involved, expecially the use of the Box-Jenkins approach. The results of his analysis are presented in two sections. The first, Inflation and Popularity, presents a model of presidential popularity as it relates to inflation. Specifically, it argues that voters evaluate the economic performances of different parties' presidents in different ways. The second section, Income and Popularity, takes an initial look at symmetry and income, and then presents two approaches to the analysis of asymmetry. This Asymmetric Hypothesis states that the electorate punishes the president and his party for hard times, but fails to reward them when economic conditions improve. The concluding chapter analyzes whether asymmetry is psychological or situational, and considers partisan effects in a chapter subtitled Bad News for Democrats. A final section on macroeconomic policy deals with maximizing popularity through changes in economic priorities.

This continuation of a classic serves as a valuable research and reference tool for those seeking basic biographical information about American governors, and students wishing to do statistical analysis of voting trends in gubernatorial elections. Arranged alphabetically by name of state, the book contains brief biographical data on governors, including date of birth, birth place, residence, occupation, party affiliation, date and age at death, and date and age on assuming office. A second set of tables for each state includes election statistics by party for all gubernatorial elections.

This study explores the idea voiced by journalist Henry McDonald that the Protestant, Unionist and Loyalist tribes of Ulster are '...the least fashionable community in Western Europe'. A cast of contributors including prominent politicians, academics, journalists and artists explore the reasons informing public perceptions attached to this community.

Deeply influenced by Enlightenment writers from Naples and France, Vincenzo Cuoco (1770-1823) was forced into exile for his involvement in the failed Neapolitan revolution of 1799. Living in Milan, he wrote what became one of the nineteenth century's most important treatises on political revolution. In his Historical Essay on the Neapolitan Revolution of 1799, Cuoco synthesized the work of Machiavelli, Vico, and Enlightenment philosophers to offer an explanation for why and how revolutions succeed or fail. A major influence on political thought during the unification of Italy, the Historical Essay was also an inspiration to twentieth-century thinkers such as Benedetto Croce and Antonio Gramsci. This critical edition, featuring an authoritative translation, introduction, and annotations, finally makes Cuoco's work fully accessible to an English-speaking audience.

Governing Rural England provides a new perspective on the process of state formation in modern England. It begins by identifying the complex ideological, cultural, and institutional influences which shaped the political provincialism of later Hanoverian England. In contrast to traditional accounts, which emphasized the ineffective, even oligarchic, character of the administration of rural England, David Eastwood demonstrates its effectiveness and capacity to adapt, and uncovers the complex interplay between central and local institutions which lay at the heart of the late Hanoverian polity. By examining key areas of policy (poor law administration, police, crime and punishment) Dr Eastwood explains the ways in which new principles of public administration combined with rapid social change to create a profound crisis in English local government in the second quarter of the nineteenth century. The resolution of this crisis led to a diminution in the role and power of traditional governing elites in rural England. This complex reconfiguration of authority within the English state had a profound influence on the developing political culture and institutional framework of modern Britain.

The focus of this book is to provide an introduction to the issues and procedures central to local government collective bargaining. There are many books which explain private sector labor relations but there are few books available which provide information pertinent to local governments. Consolidating the elements critical to public sector labor relations and collective bargaining, this book is written for public managers and employees. It defines terms, explains procedures, and provides examples of the legislation governing the mechanics of local government labor relations. Ideal as a supplemental book for courses in public personnel management and labor relations, it is also an important resource for local government administrators serving cities, counties, and school districts.

This book offers an inside look at the principal decision makers and the major legal and constitutional decisions made in the Department of Justice under Attorney General Edwin Meese. This unique perspective is offered by Douglas Kmiec, former assistant attorney general in charge of the Office of Legal Counsel (OLC). His story is a fascinating chronicle and analysis of the significant issues addressed during and since the Reagan years. These important issues include: the controversy over methods of constitutional interpretation; the legitimacy of independent counsels; efforts by the president to control executive agencies and to keep Congress in check; family issues, including abortion, AIDS, limitations on pornography, and school choice; the protection of property and economic liberty; the declining role of state and local governments; quotas, affirmative action, and civil rights; the continuing saga of Iran-Contra; and contemporary calls for ethics reform.

Important as a historical and legal analysis of the Reagan years, this work will be of interest to scholars and readers concerned with contemporary social and constitutional issues, the ramifications of the Reagan presidency, and how things have changed under George Bush. It is also the first revealing look at constitutional decisionmaking within OLC, an office that counts among its alumni the present Attorney General and two members of the Supreme Court.

During the past two decades, one of the most significant political and social changes has been the transfer of urban political leadership from aging ethnic-dominated political machines to coalitions led by blacks in cities such as Detroit, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Newark, and New Orleans. Bette Woody's analysis of modern urban government examines the political transformation of the 1970s and 1980s in the context of the failures of machine politics, traditional reforms, and racial policies of the prior two decades. Also discussed is the rise of neighborhood-based political coalitions to support black candidates, business elite support that these new leaders acquired, and the aggressive reform platforms they developed. In analyzing possibilities and strategies for current reform Woody focuses on five black mayors of big cities. A detailed case study of the success and failure of reform during Kenneth Gibson's administration in Newark reveals the importance of reorganizing city agencies and tax and budget structures in successful innovation.

This book is the first comprehensive, full-scale treatment of the politics, law, and economics with regard to the policies and policy instruments for budget stabilization at the local level. It examines budget stabilization in the United States from the 1910s to 2010 (from adoption of public budgeting in this country through the Great Recession). In addition, it provides details on the methods and results of empirical tests of the effects of budget stabilization instruments on government operations, key/basic services provision, and some other aspects of social and economic life at the local level, including full-purpose governments (county, metro city, municipality, township, and village) as well as special (single-) purpose governments (like school districts and transportation districts). This book dissects an important and pressing issue in public financial administration, analyzes a lesson that has been in the learning process, especially in the United States, and identifies theoretical threads for scholarly refinement, which will be put into specific contexts of policy design and implementation. This book will be of interest to scholars in political science, economics, public choice and in public administration, where it will also appeal to policy-makers.

The European Parliament (EP) - a powerful actor in today's European Union - was not intended to be more than a consultative assembly at first. Yet this book shows that the EP was much more influential in shaping Community policy in the early years of the integration process than either the founding Treaties or most existing scholarship would allow. It studies the EP's institutional evolution through the lens of Community social policy, a policy area with a particularly strong ideational dimension. By promoting a European social dimension, Members of the EP (MEPs) presented the Parliament as the true representative of European citizens by channelling their interests and needs. MEPs thus emphasised the EP's role as a provider of democratic legitimacy for Community politics, whilst at the same time trying to convince European citizens that the Communities could have a real and positive impact on their everyday lives.

This book is an examination of minority government performance in conjunction with the territorial distribution of state power and the territorial interests of political parties. It examines political institutions, and the reconcilability of party goals and the contingent bargaining circumstances, in multilevel and territorial perspectives.

Affirmative action programs have been implemented in over 50 jurisdictions in the United States, yet studies of a number of these communities have shown that most efforts to meet proposed race-conscious hiring goals have been unsuccessful. This unique comparative case study investigates the reasons for the success or failure of affirmative action programs in two Southern communities. Augustus J. Jones, Jr. challenges the findings in the literature that affirmative action efforts are doomed to failure. This analysis does what similar studies have failed to do: it identifies and defines those elements--communications, resources, commitment, political-social conditions, and bureaucratic arrangements--required for the successful execution of any public policy program, and then offers appropriate strategies in a detailed, step-by-step approach for successfully executing affirmative action goals. Research for the volume includes over 50 interviews of city, state, and federal officials responsible for implementing affirmative action goals, on-the-spot observations of the communities' affirmative action shops, and written records of city and country commission meetings.

Following an introductory chapter that outlines the purpose, justifications, and methodology of the work, the second chapter compares variables within the two communities, such as their civil rights records, political orientation, and progress in meeting affirmative action goals. Five subsequent chapters focus on the key elements in race-conscious hiring programs, including communications, resources, commitment, political conditions, and organizational arrangements. The final chapter offers conclusions, a recipe for successful affirmative action programs, and speculations about the future of these programs. This useful assessment will become a standard affirmative action how-to book for scholars, students, policy analysts, bureaucrats both inside and outside government, and equal opportunity officers at the federal, state, and local levels who are responsible for implementing and enforcing equal opportunity laws and affirmative action goals.

The growth in power of government bureaucracies is one of the more profound developments of 20th-century society. Bureaucracies impact the quality of life of every person in this country and many millions outside American borders. The president, governors, mayors, legislators, judges, and the public now are increasingly concerned with how bureaucracies are using their power, and accountability is at the heart of these concerns. For what and to whom are bureaucracies accountable? This acclaimed text examines these questions, primarily in the context of the federal bureaucracy.

Building upon the second edition of the text, Rosen updated the entire work to incorporate significant subsequent developments. Among the most important are the Chief Financial Officer Act of 1990, the Government Performance and Results Act of 1993, and the Government Management Reform Act of 1994. These three laws, with the Clinton administration's National Performance Review initiative, could substantially improve performance and accountability. The text clearly and systematically examines issues of accountability that are of concern to students and researchers as well as policymakers in the area of public administration.

Should we be doing--or trying to do--everything ourselves, or might it be better to contract some tasks out to others? Could they do them better and cheaper than we can? More and more state and local governments are asking these questions, and while there are many answers on the Federal level, these answers often don't apply lower down the line. Nevertheless, it is evident that contracting out is often the better strategy--but how best to go about it? What are the benefits and what are the hidden risks? Dr. O'Looney's book provides precisely the guidance that state and local managers need: first, how to decide to outsource a government service, then step-by-step how to proceed. Based on extensive interviews and other research, O'Looney takes managers through the intricacies of contract outsourcing and administration, but in doing so he makes clear that he appreciates the importance of government. His book is not an argument for privatization, as so many other books are; rather, it is an affirmation of government and the benefits of its many services.

Readers will find theory and advice on the services that are most suitable for contracting out; a listing and review of the components of a high-quality analysis, including the analysis of often overlooked political, organizational, and functional aspects of government; advice on how to go from deciding to outsource to actually designing, implementing, and monitoring a contract in situations that could prove hazardous to the livelihoods of government workers. He also discusses the changes that need to be made in the organizational culture, management, and employee training as a result of the change to a contract-based system of providing services; the considerations in designing work specifications and other critical aspects of the government-vendor relationship, and how ideal contracting processes and ideal contracts can differ according to the nature of the service being contracted. The result is a thorough and highly practical volume for executives and managers in the public sector, and for those who hope to do business with them.

In the waning moments of the 1973 session, Washington's state legislators voted salary increases for all elected officials. Charles H. Sheldon and Frank P. Weaver (who was one of the special judges) provide a unique insider's account of this important episode.

Current international discourse on the new state of South Sudan seems fixated on the "state construction." This book aims to broaden the debate by examining the character of regulatory authority in South Sudan's borderlands in both contemporary and historical perspective. The contributions gathered here show that emerging border governance practices challenge the bounded categorization of "state" and "non-state," especially in the complex interactions between state, military, and business actors and power structures. It thus provides a timely and sophisticated contribution to the literature on African borderlands, examining a new state in creation at its borders, and providing an anthropologically and historically informed view of a rapidly evolving situation.

This book addresses two issues related to the structure of local government: the determinants of consolidation and the potential impact of consolidation on local government spending. This is a narrow undertaking and leaves important elements of local government reform for future analysis. The study's primary foci are examining the factors that influence city-county consolidation, considering the impact of city-county consolidation on local government spending, and estimating the potential savings that could result from the scale economies and efficiency gains from consolidating local government units. While other regions of the United States are considered in this study, but the analysis focuses primarily on the Midwest where population declines and changes in the employment base and state policies (such as property tax caps in Indiana) have had dramatic effects on the fiscal viability of local governments. The current economic climate, along with policy changes related to property tax restructuring in many states, has led to substantial reductions in local governments' budgets. As a result, many local governments are in crisis and are considering some level of consolidation. Statistical methods and data on consolidation referendum attempts in the United States since 1970 are used to test whether governments that have consolidated (i.e., voters approved the consolidation referendum) had higher spending prior to their consolidation (as measured by local government employment rates, payrolls, and expenditures) compared to the average local government in the state. The effects of city-county consolidation are explored; using consolidation referendum data, the impact of consolidation on local government employment rates, payrolls, and expenditures is examined. The influence of consolidation on economic development is also investigated with some interesting results. The study also used two methods to estimate the savings from government consolidation and presents aggregate models to examine the potential savings from economies of scale and efficiency improvements. The book also helpfully provides a helpful discussion of the economies of scale and efficiency for several functional areas, including police and fire protection, sewerage, solid waste, public welfare, administration, health, education, and libraries. This book will be an essential resource for political scientists and policy makers interested in American government. Written in a highly accessible manner, it will also be a valuable read for students and general readers.

This volume examines how presidents from Truman to Bush rhetorically approached and managed political, military, judicial, legislative, and economic crises during their presidencies. Editor Amos Kiewe assembles new essays by communications scholars who look at rhetoric initiated during national crises, and account for various rhetorical developments affected by crises, changes in presidential rhetoric, and rhetorical and situational crisis constraints. Their studies suggest similarities in rhetoric in different types of crises, and yield resources for postulating patterns of crisis rhetoric.

Each chapter's author presents a crisis rhetoric case study, analyzing initial strategies and tactics, shifts in rhetorical tactics, adjustments of discourse to particular phases in the crises, and unique rhetorical approaches designed to accommodate unexpected turns of events. The contributors discuss how presidents use rhetorical inventions, flip-flops, face-saving posturing, and even silence to diffuse crises. Specific topics include Eisenhower's response to the constitutional crisis in Little Rock, Kennedy and the Berlin Wall crisis, Johnson and the Kennedy assassination, Nixon and Watergate, and Bush and the Persian Gulf Crisis. Recommended for political scientists and communication theorists.

The study is set against the backdrop of the urbanization trend in present-day China, and focuses on the relationship between farmers who have lost their land ("land-lost farmers") and local government. Particularly, it applies the extended case method to answer the following two questions: first, in what ways do the forces of integration and conflict manifest themselves in the relationship between land-lost farmers and local government? Second, how do land-lost farmers and local government apply respective modalities in the context of their interplay? The main finding is that the two groups, land-lost farmers and officials, are engaged in a complex and dynamic relationship. That relationship is played out locally within a network of power-interest structures, which not only manifests itself as forces of integration and conflict, but also as an ongoing process, a game played by knowledgeable agents, whose strategies are enacted, and in so doing, both reproduce that game and alter it. Readers will gain an ethnographic understanding of the relationship based on an in-depth examination of perspectives on both sides of the equation.

This book can be seen as two different books. The first is a history of political parties in ten nations (with the sections on France and Germany limited to specific periods). The second is an inquiry into the reasons for the different party systems that are found when applying similar proportional rules. In the specific countries that are analyzed, the authors put to the forefront community ties (specifically labor unions, some religious organizations and at times language) that intervene in the apparent political affiliation of a considerable number of voters. In addition, the authors add an explanation of the rise of new parties that hinges largely on whether or not alternatives exist that have not been tainted by having been part of the government or having been closely part of failed political institutions.

Set against the backdrop of tensions in East Asia, this book analyzes how East Asia's "new middle powers" and emerging powers employ public diplomacy as a key element of their foreign policy strategy and in so doing influence regional power dynamics. The volume brings together contributions from an international and influential group of scholars, who are leading debates on public diplomacy within East Asia. Where the study of public diplomacy has so far focused primarily on the West, the essays in this book highlight the distinct strategies of East Asian powers and demonstrate that understanding public diplomacy requires studying its strategies and practices outside as much as within the Western world. A focus on public diplomacy likewise gives us a more varied picture of state-to-state relations in East Asia.

An inspiring and eye-opening memoir showing how Democrats can reconnect with rural and red-state voters, from Montana's three-term democratic senator Senator Jon Tester is a rare voice in Congress. He is the only United States senator who manages a full-time job outside of the Senate--as a farmer. But what has really come to distinguish Tester in the Senate is his commitment to accountability, his ability to stand up to Donald Trump, and his success in, time and again, winning red state voters back to the Democratic Party. In Grounded, Tester shares his early life, his rise in the Democratic party, his vision for helping rural America, and his strategies for reaching red state voters. Leaning deeply into lessons on the value of authenticity and hard work that he learned growing up on his family's 1,800-acre farm near the small town of Big Sandy, Montana--the same farm he continues to work today with his wife, Sharla--Tester has made his political career a testament to crossing the divides of class and geography. The media and Democrats too often discount rural people as Trump supporters; Tester knows better. His voice is vital to the public discourse as we seek to understand the issues that are important to rural and working-class America in not just the 2020 election but also for years to come. A heartfelt and inspiring memoir from a courageous voice, Grounded shows us that the biggest threat to our democracy isn't a president who has no moral compass. It's politicians who don't understand the value of accountability and hard work. Tester demonstrates that if American democracy is to survive, we must put our trust in the values that keep us grounded.