Improving Risk Analysis shows how to better assess and manage uncertain risks when the consequences of alternative actions are in doubt. The constructive methods of causal analysis and risk modeling presented in this monograph will enable to better understand uncertain risks and decide how to manage them. The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 shows how high-quality risk analysis can improve the clarity and effectiveness of individual, community, and enterprise decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 2 discusses social decisions. Part 3 illustrates these methods and models, showing how to apply them to health effects of particulate air pollution. "Tony Cox's new book addresses what risk analysts and policy makers most need to know: How to find out what causes what, and how to quantify the practical differences that changes in risk management practices would make. The constructive methods in Improving Risk Analysis will be invaluable in helping practitioners to deliver more useful insights to inform high-stakes decisions and policy,in areas ranging from disaster planning to counter-terrorism investments to enterprise risk management to air pollution abatement policies. Better risk management is possible and practicable; Improving Risk Analysis explains how." Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, Stanford University "Improving Risk Analysis offers crucial advice for moving policy-relevant risk analyses towards more defensible, causally-based methods. Tony Cox draws on his extensive experience to offer sound advice and insights that will be invaluable to both policy makers and analysts in strengthening the foundations for important risk analyses. This much-needed book should be required reading for policy makers and policy analysts confronting uncertain risks and seeking more trustworthy risk analyses." Seth Guikema, Johns Hopkins University "Tony Cox has been a trail blazer in quantitative risk analysis, and his new book gives readers the knowledge and tools needed to cut through the complexity and advocacy inherent in risk analysis. Cox's careful exposition is detailed and thorough, yet accessible to non-technical readers interested in understanding uncertain risks and the outcomes associated with different mitigation actions. Improving Risk Analysis should be required reading for public officials responsible for making policy decisions about how best to protect public health and safety in an uncertain world." Susan E. Dudley, George Washington University

These proceedings consist of 30 selected research papers based on results presented at the 10th Balkan Conference & 1st International Symposium on Operational Research (BALCOR 2011) held in Thessaloniki, Greece, September 22-24, 2011. BALCOR is an established biennial conference attended by a large number of faculty, researchers and students from the Balkan countries but also from other European and Mediterranean countries as well. Over the past decade, the BALCOR conference has facilitated the exchange of scientific and technical information on the subject of Operations Research and related fields such as Mathematical Programming, Game Theory, Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, Information Systems, Data Mining and more, in order to promote international scientific cooperation. The carefully selected and refereed papers present important recent developments and modern applications and will serve as excellent reference for students, researchers and practitioners in these disciplines.

This book addresses the question: how can institutions develop and maintain a good purpose? And how can managers contribute to this endeavour? Twelve contributions explore this question, using MacIntyrean inquiry as a basis for exploring four main themes: Can management be considered a practice in the MacIntyrean sense? What is the role of specific virtues in the development of a virtuous institution? What are management vices and what are the conditions in which they flourish? And, can we use MacIntyrean ideas to consider the management of all forms of institutions? The volume is an international and multidisciplinary collection, with contributions from well-known writers in the field of management ethics, and innovative contributions that use MacIntyrean inquiry as a lens to examine fields such as hospitality, user generated music content and social sustainability. The papers are unified by their concern for the achievement of organizational excellence and integrity through ethical management. Unlike single author texts this edited volume brings together multiple perspectives on the topic of virtue ethics in management. In doing so, it explores the topic both more deeply and more widely than a single author can do. Because of its breadth, this book has the potential to become a turn-to research tool for those interested in virtue theory's relevance to other academic interests such as organizational behavior (including motivation theory and social psychology), literature, contemporary social issue criticism, and business management. "Editors Harris, Wijesinghe, and McKenzie have crafted a tight, slim, and thematically consistent volume that will be indispensable to scholars and students with twin interests in business and virtue ethics. In particular, those working with MacIntyre's ideas will find the thorough and complimentary explorations and applications of his ideas to serve, overall, as a cornerstone for their own work." Brenden E. Kendall (2014), Harris, H., Wijesinghe, G., & McKenzie, S. (Eds.). (2013). The Heart of the Good Institution: Virtue Ethics as a Framework for Responsible Management. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer, in Michael Schwartz , Howard Harris (ed.) Achieving Ethical Excellence (Research in Ethical Issues in Organizations, Volume 12) Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp.155 - 161

This is a sequel to the book by Dr. A. Ashimov and his colleagues, Macroeconomic Analysis and Economic Policy Based on Parametric Control. The authors have expanded both the developed mathematical apparatus and the scope of problems and applications stemming from the practice of steering a national economy of a small country in the dynamic environment of the international economic order. The developed theoretical foundation is used in Chapter 1 to suggest a decision support system operating in the framework of state economic policy making. Chapter 2 presents various mathematical models built on the basis of the available statistical data and provides quality assessment of these models. Parametric control problems are being formulated on the basis of these models as problems of mathematical programming, and the obtained solutions are subjected to analyses and interpretations. This is demonstrated by the analysis of the effect of uncontrollable factors on the problem solutions. Chapter 3 is aimed at the modelling and analysis of cyclic phenomena in economics and their structural stability. Chapter 4 presents solutions of specific problems of national economy and analysis and interpretation of their solutions. In summary, the authors formulate comprehensive mathematical models of some critical mechanisms in micro economics previously known only on a qualitative level. They provide vigorous mathematical analysis of the models that justifies their applicability for the formulation of parametric control problems, and the existence of model-based solutions. The complexity of the resultant problems is addressed by the formulation of the appropriate algorithms. The described methodology leads to the development of computer-based decision support systems.

Simulation-Based Optimization: Parametric Optimization Techniques and Reinforcement Learning introduce the evolving area of static and dynamic simulation-based optimization. Covered in detail are model-free optimization techniques - especially designed for those discrete-event, stochastic systems which can be simulated but whose analytical models are difficult to find in closed mathematical forms. Key features of this revised and improved Second Edition include: * Extensive coverage, via step-by-step recipes, of powerful new algorithms for static simulation optimization, including simultaneous perturbation, backtracking adaptive search and nested partitions, in addition to traditional methods, such as response surfaces, Nelder-Mead search and meta-heuristics (simulated annealing, tabu search, and genetic algorithms) * Detailed coverage of the Bellman equation framework for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), along with dynamic programming (value and policy iteration) for discounted, average, and total reward performance metrics * An in-depth consideration of dynamic simulation optimization via temporal differences and Reinforcement Learning: Q-Learning, SARSA, and R-SMART algorithms, and policy search, via API, Q-P-Learning, actor-critics, and learning automata * A special examination of neural-network-based function approximation for Reinforcement Learning, semi-Markov decision processes (SMDPs), finite-horizon problems, two time scales, case studies for industrial tasks, computer codes (placed online) and convergence proofs, via Banach fixed point theory and Ordinary Differential Equations Themed around three areas in separate sets of chapters - Static Simulation Optimization, Reinforcement Learning and Convergence Analysis - this book is written for researchers and students in the fields of engineering (industrial, systems, electrical and computer), operations research, computer science and applied mathematics.

7. 1. 1 Background Uncertainty can be considered as the lack of adequate information to make a decision. It is important to quantify uncertainties in mathematical models used for design and optimization of nondeterministic engineering systems. In general, - certainty can be broadly classi?ed into three types (Bae et al. 2004; Ha-Rok 2004; Klir and Wierman 1998; Oberkampf and Helton 2002; Sentz 2002). The ?rst one is aleatory uncertainty (also referred to as stochastic uncertainty or inherent - certainty) - it results from the fact that a system can behave in random ways. For example, the failure of an engine can be modeled as an aleatory uncertaintybecause the failure can occur at a random time. One cannot predict exactly when the engine will fail even if a large quantity of failure data is gathered (available). The second one is epistemic uncertainty (also known as subjective uncertainty or reducible - certainty) - it is the uncertainty of the outcome of some random event due to lack of knowledge or information in any phase or activity of the modeling process. By gaining information about the system or environmental factors, one can reduce the epistemic uncertainty. For example, a lack of experimental data to characterize new materials and processes leads to epistemic uncertainty.

Behavioral Operations Management has been identified in the last years as one of the most promising emerging fields in Operations Management. Behavioral Issues in Operations Management explains and examines up-to-date research in this field, which works to analyze the impact of human behavior on the management of complex operating systems. A collection of studies from leading scholars presents different methodologies and approaches, supported by real data and case studies. Issues such as building trust and strong cooperative relationships with suppliers, enhancing motivation and designing proper incentives for stimulating more effective decision maker behaviours are considered. The main decision-making processes affected by behavioral issues are also analyzed with a focus on new product development, logistics, and supply chain integration. The broad coverage of methodologies and practical implications makes Behavioral Issues in Operations Management an ideal reference for both researchers developing new topics such as NK fitness landscapes and managers with an interest in behavioral management operations.

In today's competitive environment, manufacturing and service companies are intensifying their customization processes. Customization means companies must meet the challenge of providing individualized products and services, without introducing high costs. Therefore, companies must address both customization and cost factors to gain a competitive advantage. While product customization is the manufacturing of products according to individual customer needs, it does not involve any focus on the cost perspective. Information and Management Systems for Product Customization will concentrate on both product customization and costs' efficiency, which is termed as mass customization. Moreover, mass customization with its multi-dimensions is the new business paradigm challenging today's manufacturing companies.

This volume collects recent results in supply chain optimisation. It presents new approaches and methods based on operations research, artificial intelligence and advanced computing techniques for design of production systems, supply and inventory management, production planning and scheduling, location, transportation and logistics, and simulation in supply flow optimisation. The text presents a wide spectrum of optimisation problems taking into account supply chain paradigms, which are pivotal to improving productivity.

This volume addresses advanced DEA methodology and techniques developed for modeling unique new performance evaluation issues. Many numerical examples, real management cases and verbal descriptions make it very valuable for researchers and practitioners.

Till Albert presents a machine learning based approach to harnessing information contained in big data from different media sources such as patents, scientific publications, or the internet. He shows how this information can be used for automated maturity evaluation of yet unknown technologies. Elaborate patent based indicators contain very useful information on technological aspects of maturity but lack for others such as social, economic, ecological, or political factors. The approach presented in this book is able to incorporate these other factors and provide a firm basis for robust technology maturity and speed of maturity evaluation.

This addition to the ISOR series addresses the analytics of the operations of electric energy systems with increasing penetration of stochastic renewable production facilities, such as wind- and solar-based generation units. As stochastic renewable production units become ubiquitous throughout electric energy systems, an increasing level of flexible backup provided by non-stochastic units and other system agents is needed if supply security and quality are to be maintained. Within the context above, this book provides up-to-date analytical tools to address challenging operational problems such as: * The modeling and forecasting of stochastic renewable power production. * The characterization of the impact of renewable production on market outcomes. * The clearing of electricity markets with high penetration of stochastic renewable units. * The development of mechanisms to counteract the variability and unpredictability of stochastic renewable units so that supply security is not at risk. * The trading of the electric energy produced by stochastic renewable producers. * The association of a number of electricity production facilities, stochastic and others, to increase their competitive edge in the electricity market. * The development of procedures to enable demand response and to facilitate the integration of stochastic renewable units. This book is written in a modular and tutorial manner and includes many illustrative examples to facilitate its comprehension. It is intended for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in the fields of electric energy systems, applied mathematics and economics. Practitioners in the electric energy sector will benefit as well from the concepts and techniques explained in this book.

GERAD celebrates this year its 25th anniversary. The Center was created in 1980 by a small group of professors and researchers of HEC Montreal, McGill University and of the Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal. GERAD's activities achieved sufficient scope to justify its conversion in June 1988 into a Joint Research Centre of HEC Montreal, the Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal and McGill University. In 1996, the U- versite du Quebec a Montreal joined these three institutions. GERAD has fifty members (professors), more than twenty research associates and post doctoral students and more than two hundreds master and Ph.D. students. GERAD is a multi-university center and a vital forum for the devel- ment of operations research. Its mission is defined around the following four complementarily objectives: * The original and expert contribution to all research fields in GERAD's area of expertise; * The dissemination of research results in the best scientific outlets as well as in the society in general; * The training of graduate students and post doctoral researchers; * The contribution to the economic community by solving important problems and providing transferable tools.

Traditional policy analysis approaches are characterized by a focus on system modeling and choosing among policy alternatives. While successful in many cases, this approach has been increasingly criticized for being technocratic and ignoring the behavioral and political dimensions of most policy processes. In recent decades, increased awareness of the multi-actor, multiple perspective, and poly-centric character of many policy processes has led to the development of a variety of different perspectives on the styles and roles of policy analysis, and to new analytical tools and approaches - for example, argumentative approaches, participative policy analysis, and negotiation support. As a result, the field has become multi-faceted and somewhat fragmented. Public Policy Analysis: New Developments acknowledges the variety of approaches and provides a synthesis of the traditional and new approaches to policy analysis. It provides an overview and typology of different types of policy analytic activities, characterizing them according to differences in character and leading values, and linking them to a variety of theoretical notions on policymaking. Thereby, it provides assistance to both end users and analysts in choosing an appropriate approach given a specific policy situation. By broadening the traditional approach and methods to include the analysis of actors and actor networks related to the policy issue at hand, it deepens the state of the art in certain areas. While the main focus of the book is on the cognitive dimensions of policy analysis, it also links the policy analysis process to the policymaking process, showing how to identify and involve all relevant stakeholders in the process, and how to create favorable conditions for use of the results of policy analytic efforts by the policy actors. The book has as its major objective to describe the state-of-the-art and the latest developments in ex-ante policy analysis. It is divided into two parts. Part I explores and structures policy analysis developments, the development and description of approaches to diagnose policy situations, design policy analytic efforts, and policy process conditions. Part II focuses on recent developments regarding models and modeling for policy analysis, placing modeling approaches in the context of the variety of conditions and approaches elaborated in Part I.

The understanding of empirical traf?c congestion occurring on unsignalized mul- lane highways and freeways is a key for effective traf?c management, control, or- nization, and other applications of transportation engineering. However, the traf?c ?ow theories and models that dominate up to now in transportation research journals and teaching programs of most universities cannot explain either traf?c breakdown or most features of the resulting congested patterns. These theories are also the - sis of most dynamic traf?c assignment models and freeway traf?c control methods, which therefore are not consistent with features of real traf?c. For this reason, the author introduced an alternative traf?c ?ow theory called three-phase traf?c theory, which can predict and explain the empirical spatiot- poral features of traf?c breakdown and the resulting traf?c congestion. A previous book "The Physics of Traf?c" (Springer, Berlin, 2004) presented a discussion of the empirical spatiotemporal features of congested traf?c patterns and of three-phase traf?c theory as well as their engineering applications. Rather than a comprehensive analysis of empirical and theoretical results in the ?eld, the present book includes no more empirical and theoretical results than are necessary for the understanding of vehicular traf?c on unsignalized multi-lane roads. The main objectives of the book are to present an "elementary" traf?c ?ow theory and control methods as well as to show links between three-phase traf?c t- ory and earlier traf?c ?ow theories. The need for such a book follows from many commentsofcolleaguesmadeafterpublicationofthebook"ThePhysicsofTraf?c".

Contrary to their increasingly important role in the global economy, little is known so far about the financial reporting practices in emerging economies. This study therefore analyses the financial reporting practices of listed firms in Brazil and South Africa. It also investigates the determinants of financial reporting quality and its effect on information asymmetries. In addition, the author compares the results for the two emerging economies to those for Germany representing a developed economy. The empirical findings have several implications for researchers and lecturers as well as for practitioners, such as preparers and users of financial reports, legislators, standard setters and auditors.

The storage yard is the operational and geographical centre of most seaport container terminals. Therefore, it is of particular importance for the whole terminal system and plays a major role for trade and transport flows. One of the latest trends in container-storage operations is the automated Rail-Mounted-Gantry-Crane system, which offers dense stacking, and offers low labour costs. This book investigates whether the operational performance of container terminals is influenced by the design of these storage systems and to what extent the performance is affected by the terminal's framework conditions, and discusses the strategies applied for container stacking and crane scheduling. A detailed simulation model is presented to compare the performance effects of alternative storage designs, innovative planning strategies, and other influencing factors. The results have useful implications future research, practical terminal planning and optimisation.

The Japan Association of Simulation & Gaming (JASAG) and the Science Council of Japan (SCJ) hosted ISAGA 2003, the 34th annual conference of the International Simulation and Gaming Association (ISAGA), at Kazusa Akademia Park in Kisarazu, Japan,August 25-29, 2003. About 450 participants and guests attended,with 330 from Japan and 101 from 34 other countries. The number of submitted papers and reports exceeded 210, and in addition, many poster presentations and experiential sessions were held. This book is made up of 30 papers submitted to ISAGA 2003 and provides a good example of the diverse scope and standard of research achieved in simu- tion and gaming today.The theme of ISAGA 2003 was "Social Contributions and Responsibilities of Simulation and Gaming." Looking back over the history of simulation and gaming research in Japan,in 1991 JASAG hosted ISAGA 1991 in Kyoto. However,even though there were only 12 years between ISAGA 1991 and ISAGA 2003,and both conferences were held in the same country,Japan,for Japanese researchers,the meaning of hosting these two international conferences of simulation and gaming research was very different.

This volume contains contributions from the 11th International Conference on Management Science (CMS 2014), held at Lisbon, Portugal, on May 29-31, 2014. Its contents reflect the wide scope of Management Science, covering different theoretical aspects for a quite diverse set of applications. Computational Management Science provides a unique perspective in relevant decision-making processes by focusing on all its computational aspects. These include computational economics, finance and statistics; energy; scheduling; supply chains; design, analysis and applications of optimization algorithms; deterministic, dynamic, stochastic, robust and combinatorial optimization models; solution algorithms, learning and forecasting such as neural networks and genetic algorithms; models and tools of knowledge acquisition, such as data mining; and all other topics in management science with the emphasis on computational paradigms.

Promptly growing demand for telecommunication services and information interchange has led to the fact that communication became one of the most dynamical branches of an infrastructure of a modern society. The book introduces to the bases of classical MDP theory; problems of a finding optimal in models are investigated and various problems of improvement of characteristics of traditional and multimedia wireless communication networks are considered together with both classical and new methods of theory MDP which allow defining optimal strategy of access in teletraffic systems. The book will be useful to specialists in the field of telecommunication systems and also to students and post-graduate students of corresponding specialties.

To compete in today's volatile market with rapidly changing consumer tastes and erce competition, companies in the manufacturing and service industries are - ploying new mechanisms to increase sales, market shares, and pro ts. As an - fective mechanism to segment a market comprising of consumers with different needs, preferences, and willingness-to-pay, many rms have used product (or s- vice) variety with different price points to serve different segments of the market, see Ho (1998). Ideally, the price of each of these products (or services) targets a particular segment of customers. For example, airlines often use different terms of sales (refundable/non-refundable, upgradable/non-upgradable, direct/connecting ight, etc. ) to sell economy class tickets at different prices. Likewise, retailers - ten sell the same product at different prices in different channels (company's own web site, dealers' web sites, or company's physical stores) or at different times (- fore, during, and after the selling season), see Talluri and van Ryzin (2005). Ample academic literature in Operations Management and other areas considered these strategies. However, as consumers become more knowledgeable about the product, pricing, organizational and operational policies that the companies deploy for pr- ucts and services, their purchasing begins to change dramatically. In the academic Operations Management literature, consumer demand is often assumedtobe exogenous so that demand functions are usually modeled as well de- ned and exogenously speci ed functions of price and/or other product attributes such as quality.

Computer Science and Operations Research continue to have a synergistic relationship and this book represents the results of the cross-fertilization between OR/MS and CS/AI. It is this interface of OR/CS that makes possible advances that could not have been achieved in isolation. Taken collectively, these articles are indicative of the state of the art in the interface between OR/MS and CS/AI and of the high-caliber research being conducted by members of the INFORMS Computing Society.

Multi-rational Management explains the concept of multirational management and illustrates it with many practical examples. It has primarily been written for 'reflective practitioners', i.e. those executives who continually think about their organisation and their own roles in that organisation.

Rapid Modelling and Quick Response presents new research developments in the fields of rapid modelling and quick response linked with performance improvements (based on lead time reduction, etc., as well as financial performance measures). The papers and teaching cases in this book were presented at the second Rapid Modelling Conference: "Quick Response - Intersection of Theory and Practice". The main focus of this collection is the transfer of knowledge from theory to practice, providing the theoretical foundations for successful performance improvement. This conference volume challenges the traditional notions of rapid modelling, and offers valuable contributions to the scientific communities of operations management, production management, supply chain management, industrial engineering and operations research. Rapid Modelling and Quick Response will give the interested reader (researcher, as well as practitioner) a good overview of new developments in this field.

This book constitutes revised selected papers from the 4th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems, ICORES 2015, held in Lisbon, Portugal, in January 2015. The 14 papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selection from a total of 89 submissions. They were organized in topical sections named: methodologies and technologies; and applications.