Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis Focusing on modern advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science. Highlighting topics not conventionally found in DA textbooks, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science, including developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges such as online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to explain available data and recommend actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes: * An emphasis on new approaches rather than only classical and traditional ideas * Discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions * Coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management * Innovative methods for deciding what actions to take when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified * Recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management.

The University of Arizona Artificial Intelligence Lab (AI Lab) Dark Web project is a long-term scientific research program that aims to study and understand the international terrorism (Jihadist) phenomena via a computational, data-centric approach. We aim to collect "ALL" web content generated by international terrorist groups, including web sites, forums, chat rooms, blogs, social networking sites, videos, virtual world, etc. We have developed various multilingual data mining, text mining, and web mining techniques to perform link analysis, content analysis, web metrics (technical sophistication) analysis, sentiment analysis, authorship analysis, and video analysis in our research. The approaches and methods developed in this project contribute to advancing the field of Intelligence and Security Informatics (ISI). Such advances will help related stakeholders to perform terrorism research and facilitate international security and peace. This monograph aims to provide an overview of the Dark Web landscape, suggest a systematic, computational approach to understanding the problems, and illustrate with selected techniques, methods, and case studies developed by the University of Arizona AI Lab Dark Web team members. This work aims to provide an interdisciplinary and understandable monograph about Dark Web research along three dimensions: methodological issues in Dark Web research; database and computational techniques to support information collection and data mining; and legal, social, privacy, and data confidentiality challenges and approaches. It will bring useful knowledge to scientists, security professionals, counterterrorism experts, and policy makers. The monograph can also serve as a reference material or textbook in graduate level courses related to information security, information policy, information assurance, information systems, terrorism, and public policy.

Nature-Inspired Algorithms have been gaining much popularity in recent years due to the fact that many real-world optimisation problems have become increasingly large, complex and dynamic. The size and complexity of the problems nowadays require the development of methods and solutions whose efficiency is measured by their ability to find acceptable results within a reasonable amount of time, rather than an ability to guarantee the optimal solution. This volume 'Nature-Inspired Algorithms for Optimisation' is a collection of the latest state-of-the-art algorithms and important studies for tackling various kinds of optimisation problems. It comprises 18 chapters, including two introductory chapters which address the fundamental issues that have made optimisation problems difficult to solve and explain the rationale for seeking inspiration from nature. The contributions stand out through their novelty and clarity of the algorithmic descriptions and analyses, and lead the way to interesting and varied new applications.

This fully updated third edition is devoted to the analysis of various Stochastic Dominance (SD) decision rules. It discusses the pros and cons of each of the alternate SD rules, the application of these rules to various research areas like statistics, agriculture, medicine, measuring income inequality and the poverty level in various countries, and of course, to investment decision-making under uncertainty. The book features changes and additions to the various chapters, and also includes two completely new chapters. One deals with asymptotic SD and the relation between FSD and the maximum geometric mean (MGM) rule (or the maximum growth portfolio). The other new chapter discusses bivariate SD rules where the individual's utility is determined not only by his own wealth, but also by his standing relative to his peer group. Stochastic Dominance: Investment Decision Making under Uncertainty, 3rd Ed. covers the following basic issues: the SD approach, asymptotic SD rules, the mean-variance (MV) approach, as well as the non-expected utility approach. The non-expected utility approach focuses on Regret Theory (RT) and mainly on prospect theory (PT) and its modified version, cumulative prospect theory (CPT) which assumes S-shape preferences. In addition to these issues the book suggests a new stochastic dominance rule called the Markowitz stochastic dominance (MSD) rule corresponding to all reverse-S-shape preferences. It also discusses the concept of the multivariate expected utility and analyzed in more detail the bivariate expected utility case. From the reviews of the second edition: "This book is an economics book about stochastic dominance. ... is certainly a valuable reference for graduate students interested in decision making under uncertainty. It investigates and compares different approaches and presents many examples. Moreover, empirical studies and experimental results play an important role in this book, which makes it interesting to read." (Nicole Bauerle, Mathematical Reviews, Issue 2007 d)

This book is designed to assist industrial engineers and production managers in developing procedural and methodological engineering tools to meet industrial standards and mitigate engineering and production challenges. It offers practitioners expert guidance on how to implement adequate statistical process control (SPC), which takes account of the capability to ensure a stable process and then regulate if variations take place due to variables other than a random variation. Powerful engineering models of new product introduction (NPI), continuous improvement (CI), and the eight disciplines (8D) model of problem solving techniques are explained. The final three chapters introduce new methodological models in operations research (OR) and their applications in engineering, including the hyper-hybrid coordination for process effectiveness and production efficiency, and the Kraljic-Tesfay portfolio matrix of industrial buying.

Every global crisis highlights the strategic importance of industrial and non-profit supply chains for society. In terms of coping with unforeseen and unpredictable events, supply chain resilience enables the parties and networks involved to stay successful during and after the disruption. Furthermore, a resilient supply chain contributes to the sustainable competitive advantage of the entire value chain. Written by scholars and practitioners alike, this book not only puts forward a new framework for resilience in supply chain management, but also presents best practice cases from various areas and industries. As a particular highlight, it includes a Delphi study that gathers state-of-the-art insights from supply chain leaders. In addition to practical approaches, methods and tools, the book also offers food for thought on the future of supply chain resilience. As such, it offers a valuable resource for current and future managers in the public and private sector, as well as researchers and students engaged in this field.

Why Customers Would Rather Have a Smartphone than a Car explores some of the fundamental changes in consumer behaviour: Why do we buy less in shops and more on the internet? Why do we spend more on gadgets, smartphones and apps and not more on food, holidays or clothing? Why do most business people only look at symptoms and not the causes of changing customer behaviour? The new generation buys differently from the baby boomers; they have different priorities and preferences. The internet has changed us in the way we think, act and communicate. Whilst many retailers now understand the need for change, few of them have established convincing or sustainable models for the future. Cor Molenaar argues that by understanding the drivers behind these new consumer behaviours, retailers can identify the opportunities this represents and adapt their offering accordingly. The kind of relationship retailing he advocates involves the way the retailer interacts with their customer; the new environment that they need to sustain along with their ability to relate customer data, technology and new services. The author interweaves examples from traditional and virtual retailing with his research on consumer psychology and buying behaviour to offer a sophisticated and at times challenging guide for all those involved in retailing, as well as those responsible for planning and designing social and retail space.

This textbook offers graduate students a concise introduction to the classic notions of convex optimization. Written in a highly accessible style and including numerous examples and illustrations, it presents everything readers need to know about convexity and convex optimization. The book introduces a systematic three-step method for doing everything, which can be summarized as "conify, work, deconify". It starts with the concept of convex sets, their primal description, constructions, topological properties and dual description, and then moves on to convex functions and the fundamental principles of convex optimization and their use in the complete analysis of convex optimization problems by means of a systematic four-step method. Lastly, it includes chapters on alternative formulations of optimality conditions and on illustrations of their use. "The author deals with the delicate subjects in a precise yet light-minded spirit... For experts in the field, this book not only offers a unifying view, but also opens a door to new discoveries in convexity and optimization...perfectly suited for classroom teaching." Shuzhong Zhang, Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Minnesota

Winner of the Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society's (HIMSS) 2015 Book of the Year Award Given the on-going changes and challenges faced by today's health care organizations, Organizational and Process Reengineering Approaches for Health Care Transformation provides a practical, leader-led and team-based approach for reengineering organizations and transforming leaders and teams while creating new processes in the health care industry. It supplies a framework for organizational change to enable senior leaders to reengineer and transform their health care organizations. The book presents proven and effective approaches and methodologies for leadership teams to help their organizations transform, thrive and grow. It goes beyond process improvement and other organizational change approaches, as it offers an integrated holistic approach that provides sustainable results. The approach described in this book has already helped many large health care organizations dramatically improve their effectiveness by creating new service lines, lines of business, population health initiatives, new care management models as well as implementing game changing solutions and technology. Well-grounded in organizational change and project management principles, this approach will help to ensure that the resulting work is implemented, accepted, and sustained by process owners and senior leaders. Descriptive case studies illustrate the practical application of the tools and techniques discussed. The approach and mind-set outlined in the book allow, and even require, that all stakeholders come to the table. They do not require an engineering degree, expensive certifications, or the use of complicated processes or tools. They will not replace current improvement methods, but instead provide an organization-based framework to help you leverage and enhance your improvement efforts.

Exercising Agency is a book about decision making. In particular, it looks in detail at how a very important type of organizational decision gets made: whether or not to initiate a project. Making strategic decisions of this kind can never be a wholly rational and scientific process. And Exercising Agency lifts the lid on many of the important behavioural factors that inform project decisions: power and politics, personality, the 'rules' of an organization. Mark Mullaly draws on his research to provide practical guidance for decision makers; project shapers, approving executives and those responsible for how initiation decisions are made. By explaining the influence, value and risks associated with the elements that inform the way we make strategic decisions he will help you identify how individuals and organizations can best support the process to ensure project initiation decisions are effective and most closely underpin the priorities of the organization. If you are involved in framing or making decisions about the future of your organization; the projects that you do or don't decide to initiate, then read this book. It won't make the decisions any easier but it will help you improve the quality of the decisions you make and over time, the effectiveness of your organizational decision making.

Due to its societal and economic relevance, Project Management (PM) has become an important discipline and a concept critical to modern organizations, public and private. PM as an academic discipline is discussed both in Management Science and in Operations Research. Management Science tends to focus on quantitative tools and the soft skills necessary to manage projects successfully. Operations Research gives the essential scientific contribution to the success of project management through the development of models and algorithms. In Management Science, Operations Research and Project Management, Jose RamA(3)n San CristA(3)bal Mateo fills the gap between scientific research and the practical application of that research. Project managers need formal training in decision-making but sometimes, they do not have an in-depth knowledge of Operations Research or they lack the necessary theoretical background. This book, with its focus on the quantitative models of Operations Research and Management Science applied to Project Management, provides project managers with the tools and methods necessary to manage projects successfully. Project managers operate in a complex global environment, in which numerous factors need to be considered, such as minimizing total project costs, meeting contracted dates, and ensuring that activities achieve certain quality levels. The focus here on the application of quantitative models of Operations Research and Management Science applied to Project Management provides them with the tools and methods necessary to make sound decisions.

Traditional mathematical programming has concentrated on problems that can be solved by achieving a single objective. In reality, many multi-objective situations exist; concentrating on a single goal limits the applicability of math programming models. Accordingly, multiobjective optimization has emerged as a rapdily growing area. In this monograph the author draws from the more mature body of literature on multicriterion decision theory to enhance understanding of multiobjective optimization. There are obvious commonalities between the two areas, but to date no one has presented a book which unifies the two. That is the aim of "Multiobjective Optimization: Behavioural and Computational Considerations". There are many behavioural and computational issues which are relevant to multiobjective optimization. These issues cross the disciplines of behavioural decision theory, information and decision support systems, and computational analysis.

As the era of ever expanding markets and ample resources ends, governments and business will have to behave differently. The world is facing weak economic growth, limits to affordable resources and increasing concerns about environmental consequences. During the boom times, governments championed de-regulation and business responded by adopting an anything-goes attitude. In these straitened times, strategic analysis has to engage with the challenges that society faces to create resilient corporations fit for the 21st century. In Corporate Strategy in the Age of Responsibility, Peter McManners, who has for nine years run strategy workshops on the Henley MBA focusing on the global business environment, sets about providing a strategic framework for navigating the new economic environment. Chief Sustainability Officers (CSOs) now exist, but they struggle to find the strategic rationale for the improvements they champion. The author argues that their good intentions often lack traction, partly because others in management don't get it, but also because they are not ambitious enough. The book is not about preaching semi-charitable behaviour or how to enhance the reputation of the corporation instead it is about surviving and thriving in a challenging and changing environment. A corporate audience familiar with strategy books will relate to this book, but will find it steers them towards radically new strategic thinking suitable for a turbulent period of transition.

Over the past thirty-five years, a tremendous body of both theoretical and empirical research has been established on the science of transportation'. The Handbook of Transportation Science has collected and synthesized this research into a systematic treatment of this field covering its fundamental concepts, methods, and principles. The purpose of this handbook is to define transportation as a scientific discipline that transcends transportation technology and methods. Whether by car, truck, airplane - or by a mode of transportation that has not yet been conceived - transportation obeys fundamental properties. The science of transportation defines these properties, and demonstrates how our knowledge of one mode of transportation can be used to explain the behavior of another. Transportation scientists are motivated by the desire to explain spatial interactions that result in movement of people or objects from place to place. Its methodologies draw from physics, operations research, probability and control theory. It is fundamentally a quantitative discipline, relying on mathematical models and optimization algorithms to explain the phenomena of transportation. The fourteen chapters in the handbook are written by the leading researchers in transportation science in an effort to define and categorize for the first time the scientific nature and state of the art of the field. As such, it is directed to the broader research community, transportation practitioners, and future transportation scientists.

Increasingly in the public discourse there are references to the knowledge economy, knowledge society, knowledge workers and knowledge organisations. The argument is that knowledge is becoming the main economic resource, replacing the natural resources that drove the industrial revolution. The new knowledge economy is driven by knowledge development, innovation and highly skilled employees. Increasing investment in higher education and in universities is in line with this strategy and understanding. In an earlier book, Creating Collaborative Advantage edited with Richard Ennals, Professor Hans Christian Garmann Johnsen argued that it is knowledge that links social and economic processes. He believes that what is missing in the current discussion on innovation is a conceptualisation of exactly what knowledge is. In The New Natural Resource, he digs deeper into what it is and how it develops and subsequently leads to widespread change. The author argues that knowledge is inherently a social phenomenon. That is why social processes are closely linked to economic development, and why this relationship becomes even more apparent in the new knowledge economy. Knowledge is not an objective entity, established once and for all. Knowledge development is interrelated with values, norms, perceptions and interpretations. We need to know what the mechanisms are by which knowledge becomes legitimate, true and relevant.

We need strategy. The world is changing, the future uncertain. What is required is vision: What might the future bring? Where is our business going? What are our fundamental business values? This book is a manual for all those who want to apply strategy in organisations. It is intended for everyone who wants to put the future on the agenda, to look beyond the short term and beyond mere profit. It describes in practical terms the eight questions we must continually discuss in order to pursue a future-proof strategy in a dynamic and uncertain world: mission, trends, scenarios, options, vision, roadmap, action and monitoring. If you are dissatisfied with an approach to strategy based on simple backward looking analysis, management controls and problems solving after the fact, but would like to make a positive contribution to thinking about the future, Scenario-based Strategy offers the instruments to turn your intention into practice. The text provides examples from commercial to government and trade organizations; showing how others have undertaken future explorations and how they used these explorations to create a dynamic strategy. Paul de Ruijter has a deep insight into the theory, alongside practical experience working with some of the most highly regarded and resilient organizations. The result is a rich combination of methodology and practical, engaging examples that shows you how to go about creating an agenda for the future.

DLP denotes a dynamic-linear modeling and optimization approach to computational decision support for resource planning problems that arise, typically, within the natural resource sciences and the disciplines of operations research and operational engineering. It integrates techniques of dynamic programming (DP) and linear programming (LP) and can be realized in an immediate, practical and usable way. Simultaneously DLP connotes a broad and very general modeling/ algorithmic concept that has numerous areas of application and possibilities for extension. Two motivating examples provide a linking thread through the main chapters, and an appendix provides a demonstration program, executable on a PC, for hands-on experience with the DLP approach.

Value aggregation to goods and services is unbelievably important to the balance of trade of modern nations, yet it receives minute attention by economists and policy-makers alike. In Competitiveness in the Real Economy, Rui Vinhas da Silva shows that the nature and dynamics of contemporary global competition requires a sharper focus on value aggregation. He provides a rounded, integrative and multi-disciplinary perspective linking national competitiveness, economics and management. The emphasis is on a transversal philosophy of value aggregation as a key driver of national competitiveness across sectors in the real economy and from production to the consumption of goods and services. The links between exports, inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and country competitiveness are examined along with the role of exports and the attraction of FDI inflows in building national GDP. The author emphasises that culture, the notion of being cosmopolitan and understanding aspirational and discriminatory consumers with high disposable income are key drivers of success in the global economy. Acknowledging that the complexity of problems comes from diversity of global actors, the author highlights the limitations of current economics in responding to contemporary challenges. His concern about the management sciences and management learning is that solutions do not lie in the formulation and prescription of universal laws, but are contextually-laden and derive from an informed intuition that is partly taught and partly experiential. The book addresses the implications of all this for how the management skills needed for competitive advantage might best be developed.

Much has been said and written about the 'financial tsunami' and subsequent economic dislocation that occurred in the opening decade of the 21st Century. Professor Ivo Pezzuto is described by business scholars as an expert on the global financial crisis. He has lectured about it at conferences and seminars; written some of the most read and quoted papers; contributed to what is considered the most authoritative book on the subject; and to one of the best known US-based blogs dealing with it. In Predictable and Avoidable, Dr Pezzuto offers business school students; academics; and industry experts in the fields of finance, risk management, audit, corporate governance, economics, and regulation, a truly independent and unbiased analysis of the financial crises starting in 2007 and one of the first fully considered expositions of the financial, governance and regulatory reforms needed for the future. Augmented with personal interviews involving selected global thought leaders and industry experts, the author's narrative focuses on the technical issues that led to the global crisis, but also addresses the human, cultural, and ethical aspects of the events from both sociological and managerial perspectives. The book exposes the root causes and contributes significantly to the debate about the change needed in the banking and finance industries and to supervisory frameworks and regulatory mechanisms. This analysis enables readers to understand that the crisis we have seen was predictable and should have been avoidable, and that a recurrence can be avoided, if lessons are learned and the right action taken.

Projects are constantly beset by problems, often caused by seemingly small mistakes which collectively lead to larger issues. Why do project managers and teams appear to repeat the same mistakes? Can they make better choices without introducing complex decision analysis processes? How can they make better estimates? Project management is the art and science of human interactions. Project Think identifies and explains the paths of those intentional and unintentional actions that lead to trouble. It provides advice and guidance in analysing information and risk and explains how 'choice-engineering' can facilitate decision-making and encourage everyone involved in a project to follow the right procedures and work collaboratively.

Pinedo is a major figure in the scheduling area (well versed in both stochastics and combinatorics), and knows both the academic and practitioner side of the discipline.

This book includes the integration of case studies into the text.

It will appeal to engineering and business students interested in operations research.

This textbook is comprised of detailed case studies covering challenging real world applications of OR techniques. Among the overall goals of the book is to provide readers with descriptions of the history and other background information on a variety of industries, service or other organizations in which decision making is an important component of their daily operations. The book considers all methods of optimum decision making in order to improve performances. It also compares possible solutions obtained by different approaches, concluding with a recommendation of the best among them for implementation. By exposing students to a variety of applications in a variety of areas and explaining how they can be modeled and solved, the book helps students develop the skills needed for modeling and solving problems that they may face in the workplace. Each chapter of "Case Studies in Operations Research: Applications of Optimal Decision Making" also includes additional data provided on the book's website on Springer.com. These files contain a brief description of the area of application, the problem and the required outputs. Also provided are links to access all the data in the problem. Finally there are project exercises for students to practice what they have learnt in the chapter, which can also be used by instructors as project assignments in their courses.

We are living in the post-information age, the era of so-called 'Big Data'. It is a practical possibility for corporations to report, chart and analyse every action, transaction and click that happens inside and outside their business. In Decision Sourcing Roberts and Pakkiri examine what this means to organisational decision making. They explode the myth that good decisions need only be informed ones through an examination into how business really make choices. They lay bare the poverty of decision making processes in today's corporate world and offer fresh and fascinating insight into how social tools are providing new sources of information, how they are challenging hierarchy and how they are providing opportunities for growth and agility through aligned and inclusive decision making. This book is for those organisations that want to get beyond the corporate Facebook account and are ready for the next bold step. It is for those businesses that want to engage their workforce and their customers in collaborative relationships that are at the heart of the successful social enterprise.

While many business schools are teaching Global Operations Strategy with self-made teaching materials, there are no such textbooks. Combining practical approaches with detailed theoretical underpinnings, this book provides theories, tools, frameworks, and techniques for global operations strategy, and brings real world perspectives to students and managers. Each chapter includes definition of key terms, introduction of fundamental theories, several short case examples, one long new case to explain the associated theories, and recommended further reading.

This is the first book to present marketing strategy of high-tech products and services in a legal, economic, and global context. From software to hardware, from pharmaceuticals to digital movies and TV, the authors argue that the understanding of intellectual property rights (IPRs) is essential to devising effective marketing strategies.