Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research. The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: * Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling * An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer s Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model * Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems * A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.

This book examines key risks that the Nations critical energy infrastructure is confronting and the ways in which the insurance industry can help manage these risks, including how it identifies, assesses, and manages them and their potential impacts. Today, weather-related incidents account for the majority of economic losses in the insurance industry as well as in the critical infrastructure sectors. In addition to the traditionally-recognised natural hazards, critical energy infrastructure faces significant emerging threats, including cybersecurity and space weather risks. While the United States has a large, mature insurance market, developing insurance mechanisms for protecting critical infrastructure from these emerging risks remains a significant challenge. The lack of historical data on the frequency and severity of these events, the changing nature of technologies impacted by them, as well as the inherent uncertainties posed by these risks make it difficult to accurately assess these emerging risks and develop proper insurance products. Insurance instruments can be a useful risk mitigation tool for critical infrastructure by encouraging resilience-enhancing investments and acilitating recovery after a disaster. However, due to the increased interdependencies across various critical infrastructure systems and sectors as well as the growing dependence of todays society on the critical infrastructure functions and advanced technologies, the question of insurability of critical infrastructure against emerging risks faces new challenges.

Focusing on what actuaries need in practice, this introductory account provides readers with essential tools for handling complex problems and explains how simulation models can be created, used and re-used (with modifications) in related situations. The book begins by outlining the basic tools of modelling and simulation, including a discussion of the Monte Carlo method and its use. Part II deals with general insurance and Part III with life insurance and financial risk. Algorithms that can be implemented on any programming platform are spread throughout and a program library written in R is included. Numerous figures and experiments with R-code illustrate the text. The author's non-technical approach is ideal for graduate students, the only prerequisites being introductory courses in calculus and linear algebra, probability and statistics. The book will also be of value to actuaries and other analysts in the industry looking to update their skills.

Over a period of several centuries, the academic study of risk has evolved as a distinct body of thought, which continues to influence conceptual developments in fields such as economics, management, politics and sociology. However, few scholarly works have given a chronological account of cultural and intellectual trends relating to the understanding and analysis of risks. Risk: A Study of its Origins, History and Politics aims to fill this gap by providing a detailed study of key turning points in the evolution of society's understanding of risk. Using a wide range of primary and secondary materials, Matthias Beck and Beth Kewell map the political origins and moral reach of some of the most influential ideas associated with risk and uncertainty at specific periods of time. The historical focus of the book makes it an excellent introduction for readers who wish to go beyond specific risk management techniques and their theoretical underpinnings, to gain an understanding of the history and politics of risk.

This book develops the notion that companies can succeed on the basis of risk management, much as companies compete on efficiency, costs, labor, location, and other dimensions. The reality of risk and how it impacts companies is that it is much more definite, often catastrophic and looks more like a shock. This is striking, as a difference between firms on risk different than a marginal difference in operating efficiencies, for example. Competing on Risk Management requires a discipline, a commitment to using information and recognizing shocks and then acting upon those to redistribute assets. This book will examine how leading firms that compete on risk have done this and showcase best practices and impacts to the capital structure of firms and their organizational formation.

A revolutionary new approach for detecting and managing inherent risk

The unprecedented turmoil in the financial markets turned the field of quantitative finance on its head and generated severe criticism of the statistical models used to manage risk and predict "black swan" events. Something very important had been lost when statistical representations replaced expert knowledge and statistics substituted for causation.

"Extreme Risk Management" brings causation into the equation. The use of causal models in risk management, securities valuation, and portfolio management provides a real and much-needed alternative to the stochastic models used so far. Providing an alternative tool for risk modeling and scenario-building in stress-testing, this game-changing book uses causal models that help you: Evaluate risk with extraordinary accuracy Predict devastating worst-case scenarios Enhance transparency Facilitate better decision making

TABLE OF CONTENTS Plausibility vs. Probability: Alternative World Views The Evolution of Modern Analytics Risk Management Metrics and Models The Future as Forecast: Assumptions Implicit in Stochastic Risk Measurement Models An Alternative Path to Actionable Intelligence Solutions: Moving Toward a Connectivist Approach An Introduction to Causality: Theory, Models, and Inference Risk Inference Networks: Estimating Vulnerability, Consequences, and Likelihood Securities Valuation, Risk Measurement, and Portfolio Management Using Causal Models Risk Fusion and Super Models: A Framework for Enterprise Risk Management Inferring Causality from Historical Market Behavior Sensemaking for Warnings: Reverse-Engineering Market Intelligence The United States as Enterprise: Implications for National Policy and Security

Natural disasters, terrorist attacks, financial collapses, and other crisis situations have occupied public attention to an unprecedented degree in recent years. In the face of these events, the study of risk and crisis management is becoming more important than ever before. This book is a clear and comprehensive guide to the most common emergency situations of our day, giving succinct, practical advice on how best to avoid them if possible, how to minimize loss and damage once they have occurred, and how best to recover sustainably. The 101 cases presented here cover both natural and man-made disasters, drawing on recent and current case histories to propose workable solutions for governments, corporations and ordinary people facing extraordinary times.This revised and expanded edition of the authors' 1999 book, Survival - Simulation of Risk and Crisis Management 69, is written in an accessible style and contains the latest research in the field. It will benefit laypeople, professionals, and academics alike. In particular, safety professionals, public management professionals, CEOs, CIOs, tertiary students and researchers will appreciate its pragmatic, vigilant approach to dealing with and recovering from natural and man-made disasters in the interest of long-term survival and sustainability.

After recent earthquakes, tsunamis, and hurricanes devastated more than a dozen countries, civil engineers find themselves at the forefront of building and repairing the infrastructure of destroyed communities. A balance must be struck between potential losses from natural disasters and financial commitments to infrastructure protection. Civil engineers are positioned to achieve this balance, but may need new tools to do so. This monograph asks the bigger question: are civil engineers doing their jobs or should their roles be redefined? The topics covered in this publication include: an introduction to disaster risk assessment and mitigation; disaster risk assessment for natural hazard mitigation; reducing the effects of hazards; system evaluation for hazard mitigation; lessons learned from recent disasters; construction challenges; and political commitment to disaster mitigation. This publication is invaluable to engineers involved in disaster risk assessment and mitigation, lifelines, and owners and operators of public and private infrastructure systems.

Domestic and foreign financial assets of all central banks and public wealth funds world wide are estimated to have reached more than 12 trillion US dollars in 2007. How do these institutions manage such unprecedented growth in their financial assets and how have they responded to the 'revolution' of risk management techniques during the last fifteen years? This book surveys the fundamental issues and techniques associated with risk management and shows how central banks and other public investors can create better risk management systems. Each chapter looks at a specific area of risk management, first presenting general problems and then showing how these materialize in the special case of public institutions. Written by a team of risk management experts from the European Central Bank, this much-needed survey is an ideal resource for those concerned with the increasingly important task of managing risk in central banks and other financial institutions.

The field of credit risk and corporate bankruptcy prediction has gained considerable momentum following the collapse of many large corporations around the world, and more recently through the sub-prime scandal in the United States. This book provides a thorough compendium of the different modelling approaches available in the field, including several new techniques that extend the horizons of future research and practice. Topics covered include probit models (in particular bivariate probit modelling), advanced logistic regression models (in particular mixed logit, nested logit and latent class models), survival analysis models, non-parametric techniques (particularly neural networks and recursive partitioning models), structural models and reduced form (intensity) modelling. Models and techniques are illustrated with empirical examples and are accompanied by a careful explanation of model derivation issues. This practical and empirically-based approach makes the book an ideal resource for all those concerned with credit risk and corporate bankruptcy, including academics, practitioners and regulators.

The value proposition for fusion centres is that by integrating various streams of information and intelligence, including that flowing from the federal government, state, local, and tribal governments, as well as the private sector, a more accurate picture of risks to people, economic infrastructure, and communities can be developed and translated into protective action. The ultimate goal of fusion is to prevent manmade (terrorist) attacks and to respond to natural disasters and manmade threats quickly and efficiently should they occur. As recipients of federal government-provided national intelligence, another goal of fusion centres is to model how events inimical to U.S. interests overseas may be manifested in their communities, and align protective resources accordingly. There are several risks to the fusion centre concept -- including potential privacy and civil liberties violations, and the possible inability of fusion centres to demonstrate utility in the absence of future terrorist attacks, particularly during periods of relative state fiscal austerity. Fusion centres are state-created entities largely financed and staffed by the states, and there is no one "model" for how a centre should be structured. State and local law enforcement and criminal intelligence seem to be at the core of many of the centres.

Environmental Enforcement Authorities (EEAs), sometimes called Environmental Protection Agencies (EPAs), are the regulatory, monitoring and enforcement agencies of national, state/provincial and local governments worldwide responsible for implementing, monitoring and enforcing environmental legislation. This one-of-a-kind, authoritative handbook offers a comprehensive assessment of the principles and best practice of EEAs throughout the world with a focus on Europe, the USA, Canada, Australia, east and south-east Asia and various other OECD, transition and developing countries.The book assesses structures, expertise and capacity, financing, permitting, monitoring, inspection, enforcement and EEA performance and future directions. It also identifies best practice for creating or improving EEAs. It offers substantial information for industry on the nature of compliance with environmental regulations as well as vital information for professionals, consultants, NGOs and researchers working at the interface between government EEAs and industry.

Why does regulation vary so dramatically from one area to another? Why are some risks regulated aggressively and others responded to only modestly? Is there any logic to the techniques we use in risk regulation? These key questions are explored in The Government of Risk. This book looks at a number of risk regulation regimes, considers the respects in which they differ, and examines how these differences can be justified. Analyzing regulation in terms of 'regimes' allows us to see the rich, multi-dimensional nature of risk regulation. It exposes the thinness of society-wide analyses of risk controls and it offers a perspective that single case studies cannot reach. Regimes analysis breaks down the components of risk regulation systems and shows how they interact. It also shows how different parts of the same regime may be shaped by different factors and have to be explained and understood in quite different ways. The Government of Risk shows how such an approach is of high policy relevance as well as of considerable theoretical importance.

"Whole World on Fire focuses on a technical riddle wrapped in an organizational mystery: How and why, for more than half a century, did the U.S. government fail to predict nuclear fire damage as it drew up plans to fight strategic nuclear war? U.S. bombing in World War II caused massive fire damage to Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but later war plans took account only of damage from blast; they completely ignored damage from atomic firestorms. Recently a small group of researchers has shown that for modern nuclear weapons the destructiveness and lethality of nuclear mass fire often--and predictably--greatly exceeds that of nuclear blast. This has major implications for defense policy: the U.S. government has underestimated the damage caused by nuclear weapons, Lynn Eden finds, and built far more warheads, and far more destructive warheads, than it needed for the Pentagon's war-planning purposes. How could this have happened? The answer lies in how organizations frame the problems they try to solve. In a narrative grounded in organization theory, science and technology studies, and primary historical sources (including declassified documents and interviews), Eden explains how the U.S. Air Force's doctrine of precision bombing led to the development of very good predictions of nuclear blast--a significant achievement--but for many years to no development of organizational knowledge about nuclear fire. Expert communities outside the military reinforced this disparity in organizational capability to predict blast damage but not fire damage. Yet some innovation occurred, and predictions of fire damage were nearly incorporated into nuclear war planning in the early 1990s. The author explains howsuch a dramatic change almost happened, and why it did not. "Whole World on Fire shows how well-funded and highly professional organizations, by focusing on what they do well and systematically excluding what they don't do well, may build a poor representation of the world--a self-reinforcing fallacy that can have serious consequences. In a sweeping conclusion, Eden shows the implications of the analysis for understanding such things as the sinking of the Titanic, the collapse of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge, and the poor fireproofing in the World Trade Center.

Examines the diverse uses and abuses of risk by social actors across a wide range of cultural, ethnic, and geographical locales. The introductory chapter by the two co-editors analyzes and contextualizes current scholarly debates on the social, cultural, and political construction of risk. It is followed by an overview on the anthropology of harm reduction that outlines an innovative framework for culturally informed risk analysis. The remaining nine chapters are organized into three sections, The Cultivation of Fear, Perceptions of Health, Safety, and Hazard: Risk Makers and Risk Takers, and Regulating Risk and the Public's Health. The book aims to address a set of questions of theoretical and practical importance to anthropologists, sociologists, public health scholars and professionals, and public policy advocates, among others. These questions include: How do individuals conceptualize and respond to risk? Can risk be a tool of empowerment for individuals and communities who define themselves as at-risk? How has risk figured recently in the production of health inequality? Has the social contract to provide care in its broadest sense expanded or contracted around issues of risk? Are risk and the imperative to adhere to risk warnings used by experts as a means of social control?

The volume's contributors, medical anthropologists and sociologists, provide rich, grounded ethnographic case material on the processes at work in everyday social life around the globe, as individuals and groups struggle to make saense of the health risks and inequities in their lives and communities. Authors address an array of urgent health concerns, ranging from food safety to environment, new technologies to infectious disease, in such contrasting locales as the US, Europe, South and Southeast Asia, and North Africa, and across diverse ethnicities and social classes.

Every decision that is made by managers and policy-makers in a public sector organization requires an evaluation and a judgement of the risks involved. This vital requirement has been recognised in the growth of risk management. However, risks can never be fully prevented, which means that public managers also have to be crisis managers. Today's crises develop in unseen ways; they escalate rapidly and transform through the interdependencies of modern society, and their frequency is growing: the global financial crisis, the European volcanic ash cloud, the Japanese tsunami and subsequent Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown, the Christchurch earthquake and the Queensland floods. All highlight the extreme challenges that public sector organizations across the world have had to face in recent years. Risk and Crisis Management in the Public Sector Second Edition responds to these challenges by presenting the only guide for public managers and public management students which combines lessons about risk and crisis management together in a single, accessible text. It equips readers and public managers with the knowledge and skills to understand key issues and debates, as well as the capacity to treat risks and better prepare for, respond to and recover from crisis episodes. This exciting new edition enhances the original text with contemporary cases and a greater focus on the international, trans-boundary and multi-agency dimensions of risk and crisis management. These enhancements reflect the fact that today's public manager must increasingly operate within a global and interdependent governance context.

This is an update and expansion upon PMI's popular reference, The Practice Standard for Project Risk Management. Risk Management addresses the fact that certain events or conditions may occur with impacts on project, program, and portfolio objectives. This standard will: identify the core principles for risk management; describe the fundamentals of risk management and the environment within which it is carried out; define the risk management life cycle; and apply risk management principles to the portfolio, program, and project domains within the context of an enterprise risk management approach It is primarily written for portfolio, program, and project managers, but is a useful tool for leaders and business consumers of risk management, and other stakeholders.

This is an update and expansion upon PMI's popular reference, The Practice Standard for Project Risk Management. Risk Management addresses the fact that certain events or conditions may occur with impacts on project, program, and portfolio objectives. This standard will: identify the core principles for risk management; describe the fundamentals of risk management and the environment within which it is carried out; define the risk management life cycle; and apply risk management principles to the portfolio, program, and project domains within the context of an enterprise risk management approach It is primarily written for portfolio, program, and project managers, but is a useful tool for leaders and business consumers of risk management, and other stakeholders.