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Books > Social sciences > Sociology, social studies > Social research & statistics > Social forecasting, futurology
This book forecasts the world of 2030, which predictions estimate, will be radically transformed from our world today. By 2030, no country, whether the U.S., China, or any other large country, will be a hegemonic power. The empowerment of individuals and diffusion of power among states and from states to informal networks will have a dramatic impact, largely reversing the historic rise of the West since 1750, restoring Asia's weight in the global economy, and ushering in a new era of "democratisation" at the international and domestic level. In addition to individual empowerment and the diffusion of state power, two other megatrends will shape our world out to 2030: demographic patterns, especially rapid ageing; and growing resource demands which, in the cases of food and water, might lead to scarcities. These trends, which are virtually certain, exist today, but during the next 1520 years will gain much greater momentum. Underpinning the megatrends are tectonic shifts (ie: critical changes to key features of our global environment that will affect how the world "works").
Global risks, mobilities and interdependencies transnationalize local life and working worlds. These processes lead to an inner globalization of societies in which worldwide constellations of "reflexive" (Ulrich Beck), "multiple" (Shmuel N. Eisenstadt), "entangled" (Shalini Randeria) and "global" (Arjun Appadurai) modernities simultaneously and immediately clash in social action: a process of cosmopolitanization in which "the global" is localized and "the local" is globalized in radical new ways. In this book, an international selection of prominent critical thinkers address this premise and provide their interpretations of imminent challenges, concomitant social dynamics and political implications.With contributions by Arjun Appadurai, Zygmunt Bauman, Ulrich Beck, Elisabeth Beck-Gernsheim, Edgar Grande, Maarten Hajer, Ronald Hitzler, Wolf Lepenies, Anna Tsing, Angela McRobbie, Bruno Latour, Ted Nordhaus & Michael Shellenberger, Hans-Georg Soeffner, Natan Sznaider, Anja Weiss and Yunxiang Yan.
"The Great Growing Up" is about an urgent collective choice: to opt for responsible adulthood over the largely adolescent ways we have been relating to one another and our planet Earth. The author demonstrates that it is not too late to create the future we all say we want for our children and our children's children--a future that is environmentally sustainable, spiritually fulfilling and socially just. . This book is about a change of thinking that supports a paradigm shift-from adolescent self-centeredness to adult responsibility for all life forms. Anyone willing to genuinely "grow up" can make this necessary choice. Ever-increasing numbers of individuals today are already seeking self-actualization, growing in consciousness, and willing to take on leadership roles in bringing about the first conscious evolution of our species. This represents a somewhat invisible global movement of historic proportions. The Great Growing Up invites anyone concerned with humanity's future to participate in this new thinking. The work of growing up is not primarily about political action-it requires no government funding, no special trainings. The work is about a change of mind; we simply begin acting like mature adults. The author points out how. Taking the reader by the hand, Renesch presents a brief historical overview of the ideals and radical visions that informed this country's foundation. He invites us to consider what's been obscured, what's been lost, and when and why? He helps us to look courageously at the choices that have led to our personal, societal and planetary dilemmas. He identifies patterns of human behavior that currently prevent making the shift in collective consciousness and pops a number of myths/beliefs we have that are no longer valid. Finally, he details the behaviors we need to encourage and offers an optimistic option for the future despite many negative global trends. His friendly writing style encourages trust and agreement, and the vast resources of his lifelong collaboration with business persons, futures and systems experts lends strong authority to his proposals. "John Renesch, renowned futurist and prolific author, has written a deeply provocative book to inspire the evolution of a new humanity. The Great Growing Up brilliantly captures the critical importance of the present moment and outlines a trajectory for achieving a mature, peaceful future for all. John?'s roadmap to our collective future is clear, compelling, and transformative. His new book is important and empowering. I highly recommend it." -- Lynne Twist, co-founder, The Pachamama Alliance "Like a master painter, John Renesch provides a broad interpretive mural of the last half-century along with a sweeping and sense-making depiction of how humankind has encumbered itself with less than a fully human milieu. But he does not leave us in stoicism or anomie. He encourages hope that we can rebuild our future through new forms of conscious leadership. One is left with both an understanding of our past and a renewed sense of mission regarding a future on which mankind's very survival depends." -- Andre L. Delbecq, J. Thomas and Kathleen L. McCarthy University Professor, Santa Clara University "John Renesch is a Renaissance Man who lives in the twenty-first century. In The Great Growing Up he shows how, through conscious evolution, we can put our predatory past behind us and create a dignitarian world. Prophetic yet practical, The Great Growing Up integrates science, philosophy, spirituality, and psychology into a compelling vision of a world that will work for everyone." -- Robert W. Fuller, former president, Oberlin College, author of All Rise: Somebodies, Nobodies, and the Politics of Dignity "This book is about the art of the possible despite all odds in these turbulent times. It is a manifesto for all of us as humans to lead rather than follow our own evolution." -- Mark Thompson, bestselling coauthor of Success Built to Last "In his new book - The Great Growing Up - John Renesch challenges us with authority, humanity, energy and optimism, to address the key issues facing society today, both globally and personally - and these two dimensions are closely linked. It is full of valuable insights, as well as being a call to action. These messages need urgent attention if we are to survive this century, let alone see a better world in the years ahead. Time is not on our side." -- Bruce Lloyd, Emeritus Professor of Strategic Management, London South Bank University "Ever the optimistic realist, John Renesch makes clear from the beginning that The Great Growing Up intends to make us uncomfortable with the lies we tell ourselves about our world and our place in it. In debunking the myths that we think guide us, John offers a transformative manifesto of what is possible for humanity with the emphasis on "human." But this is not new age mumbo jumbo; John's background in business and the physical sciences is evident throughout. Read this book and share it." -- James A. Autry, author of The Servant Leader and Looking Around for God "In The Great Growing Up, John Renesch meticulously describes today's dysfunctional societies and the dissatisfactions they have created. However, a well-functioning society is possible through 'conscious evolution, ' the use of human intention to create alternative money systems, transformative learning, gender parity, energy independence, and a host of other paradigm changes. The Great Growing Up contains a vivid description of contemporary society that is as accurate as it is depressing; however, Renesch gives his readers a 'Great Dream' for the future that is rooted in the writings of the founders of the United States, yet rebooted for the tattered world of the 21st century . . . a splendid book." -- Stanley Krippner, Ph.D., Professor of Psychology, Saybrook University, coauthor of Personal Mythology "John Renesch has been a pioneer and visionary in the search for human val
If there is anything that distinguishes us from animals, it is our ability to understand that such a thing as the future exists and our willingness to try and look into it. But how have people through the ages gone about making predictions? What were their underlying assumptions, and what methods did they use? Have increased computer power and the newest algorithms improved our success in anticipating the future, or are we still only as good (or as bad) at it as our ancestors? From the ancients watching the flight of birds to the murky activities of Google and Facebook today, Seeing into the Future gives us an insight into the past, present and future of prediction.
SUNDAY TIMES BESTSELLER The creator of the Gaia hypothesis and the greatest environmental thinker of our time has produced an astounding new theory about the future of life on Earth. James Lovelock argues that the anthropocene - the age in which humans acquired planetary-scale technologies - is, after three centuries, coming to an end. A new age - the novacene - has already begun. New beings will emerge from existing artificial intelligence systems. They will think 10,000 times faster than we do and will regard us as we now regard plants. The cruel, violent machine takeover imagined by sci-fi writers will not happen: these hyper-intelligent beings will be as dependent on the health of the planet as we are. They will need the planetary cooling system of Gaia to defend from the increasing heat of the sun. Gaia depends on organic life. We will be partners in this project. It is crucial, Lovelock argues, that the intelligence of Earth survives and prospers. We are at present the only beings capable of understanding the cosmos, but he speculates that the novacene could be the beginning of a process that will see intelligence suffusing the entire cosmos. At the age 100, Lovelock has produced the most compelling work of his life.
Former Internet entrepreneur Andrew Keen was among the earliest to write about the dangers that the Internet poses to our culture and society. His 2007 book The Cult of the Amateur was critical in helping advance the conversation around the Internet, which has now morphed from a tool providing efficiencies and opportunities for consumers and business to an elemental force that is profoundly reshaping our societies and our world. In his new book, How to Fix the Future, Keen focuses on what we can do about this seemingly intractable situation. Looking to the past to learn how we might change our future, he describes how societies tamed the excesses of the Industrial Revolution, which, like its digital counterpart, demolished long-standing models of living, ruined harmonious environments, and altered the business world beyond recognition. Traveling the world to interview experts in a wide variety of fields, from EU Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Vestager, whose recent 2.4 billion fine to Google made headlines around the world, to successful venture capitalists who nonetheless see the tide turning, to CEOs of companies including The New York Times, Keen unearths approaches to tackling our digital future. There are five key tools that Keen identifies: regulation, competitive innovation, social responsibility, worker and consumer choice, and education. His journey to discover how these tools are being put into practice around the globe takes him from digital-oriented Estonia, where Skype was founded and where every citizen can access whatever data the government holds on them by logging in to an online database, and where a "e-residency" program allows the country to expand beyond its narrow borders, to Singapore, where a large part of the higher education sector consists in professional courses in coding and website design, to India, Germany, China, Russia, and, of course, Silicon Valley. Powerful, urgent, and deeply engaging, How to Fix the Future vividly depicts what we must do if we are to try to preserve human values in an increasingly digital world and what steps we might take as societies and individuals to make the future something we can again look forward to.
Not since the twin hammers of the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution battered apart the foundations of old Europe has the world faced a shift as elemental, as epochal as what confronts us now. From Facebook to hacking attacks to ISIS, powerful network forces we barely understand are ripping through our connected world, tearing at our most fundamental ideas. What institution do you trust more today than you did ten years ago? Exactly. In this groundbreaking new book, Joshua Cooper Ramo explains a powerful new instinct that we need to understand if we want to see everything from the opportunities for fortune in our age to the most virulent dangers. Animated with experiences studying with Chinese Zen masters and advising generals and CEOs, The Seventh Sense will forever alter the way you look at our the world we now live in.
In the next decade, five billion new people will come online,
posing for our world a host of new opportunities--and dangers.
Google's Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen traveled to thirty-five
countries, including some of the world's most volatile regions
andmet with politicalleaders, entrepreneurs, and activists to learn
firsthand about the challenges they face. Packed with fascinating
ideas, informed predictions, and prescient warnings, The New
Digital Age tackles some of the toughest questions about our
future: how will technology change the way we approach issues like
privacy and security, war and intervention, diplomacy, revolution
and terrorism. And how can we best use new technologies to improve
our lives? More than a book about gadgets and data, this is a
prescriptive glimpse of how technology is reshaping our world and
the lives of the people who live in it.
""The World in 2050" is a compelling portrait of the future and
vividly relates the big challenges facing the world now." The world's population is exploding, wild species are vanishing, and our environment is degrading. What kind of world are we leaving for our children and grandchildren? Just who will flourish-and who will fail-in our evolving world? Combining the lessons of geography and history with state-of-the-art model projections and analytical data, Guggenheim fellow Laurence C. Smith predicts how the eight nations of the Arctic Rim (including the United States) will become increasingly powerful while the nations around the equator struggle for survival. Like Bjorn Lomborg's "The Skeptical Environmentalist, The World in 2050" is as credible as it is controversial, projecting the looming benefits as well as the problems of climate change.
In an accessible and droll style, best-selling author Joel Best shines a light on how we navigate these anxious, insecure social times. While most of us still strive for the American Dream-to graduate from college, own a home, work toward early retirement-recent generations have been told that the next generation will not be able to achieve these goals, that things are getting-or are on the verge of getting-worse. In American Nightmares, Best addresses the apprehension that we face every day as we are bombarded with threats that the social institutions we count on are imperiled. Our schools are failing to teach our kids. Healthcare may soon be harder to obtain. We can't bank on our retirement plans. And our homes-still the largest chunk of most people's net worth-may lose much of their value. Our very way of life is being threatened! Or is it? With a steady voice and keen focus, Best examines how a culture develops fears and fantasies and how these visions are created and recreated in every generation. By dismantling current ideas about the future, collective memory, and sociology's marginalization in the public square, Best sheds light on how social problems-and our anxiety about them-are socially constructed.
By the end of this century, living beyond 100 will be the rule rather than the exception. What medical breakthroughs and new technologies will make this possible? In this brilliantly wide-ranging, one-stop guide WIRED journalist James Temperton outlines the medical revolutions that are transforming healthcare. He looks at the burgeoning immune therapies that could one day cure such life-threatening diseases as cancer. He explores the science - and ethics - of genetic engineering and its potential to create 'designer babies'. He considers the role that cutting-edge medical research could play in the treatment of mental and neurological disorders ranging from depression to autism. And he addresses the fundamental question: could medical technology become so sophisticated that we witness the end of ageing?
'A dazzling history of the future - Hamish McRae has given us a tour de force' Tim Harford What will the world look like in 2050? How will complex forces of change - demography, the environment, finance, technology and ideas about governance - affect our global society? And how, with so many unknowns, should we think about the future? One of Europe's foremost voices on global trends in economics, business and society, Hamish McRae takes us on an exhilarating journey through the next thirty years. Drawing on decades of research, and combining economic judgement with historical perspective, Hamish weighs up the opportunities and dangers we face, analysing the economic tectonic plates of the past and present in order to help us chart a map of the future. A bold and vital vision of our planet, The World in 2050 is an essential projection for anyone worried about what the future holds. For if we understand how our world is changing, we will be in a better position to secure our future in the decades to come.
The fashion business has been collecting and analyzing information about colors, fabrics, silhouettes, and styles since the 18th century - activities that have long been shrouded in mystery. The Fashion Forecasters is the first book to reveal the hidden history of color and trend forecasting and to explore its relevance to the fashion business of the past two centuries. It sheds light on trend forecasting in the industrial era, the profession's maturation during the modernist moment of the 20th century, and its continued importance in today's digital fast-fashion culture. Based on in-depth archival research and oral history interviews, The Fashion Forecasters examines the entrepreneurs, service companies, and consultants that have worked behind the scenes to connect designers and retailers to emerging fashion trends in Europe, North America, and Asia. Here you will read about the trend studios, color experts, and international trade fairs that formalized the prediction process in the modern era, and hear the voices of leading contemporary practitioners at international forecasting companies such as the Doneger Group in New York and WGSN in London. Probing the inner workings of the global fashion system, The Fashion Forecasters blends history, biography, and ethnography into a highly readable cultural narrative.
'A fascinating, must-read book covering a vast array of topics from the arts to the sciences, technology to policy. This is a brilliant and thought-provoking response to one of the most critical questions of our age: how we will come up with the next generation of innovation and truly fresh ideas?' Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind and Google VP 'Have "big ideas" and big social and economic changes disappeared from the scene? Michael Bhaskar's Human Frontiers is the best look at these all-important questions.' Tyler Cowen, author of The Great Stagnation and The Complacent Class 'Michael Bhaskar explores the disturbing possibility that a complacent, cautious civilization has lost ambition and is slowly sinking into technological stagnation rather than accelerating into a magical future. He is calling for bold, adventurous innovators to go big again. A fascinating book' Matt Ridley, author of How Innovation Works Where next for humanity? Is our future one of endless improvement in all areas of life, from technology and travel to medicine, movies and music? Or are our best years behind us? It's easy to assume that the story of modern society is one of consistent, radical progress, but this is no longer true: more academics are researching than ever before but their work leads to fewer breakthroughs; innovation is incremental, limited to the digital sphere; the much-vaunted cure for cancer remains elusive; space travel has stalled since the heady era of the moonshot; politics is stuck in a rut, and the creative industries seem trapped in an ongoing cycle of rehashing genres and classics. The most ambitious ideas now struggle. Our great-great-great grandparents saw a series of transformative ideas revolutionise almost everything in just a few decades. Today, in contrast, short termism, risk aversion, and fractious decision making leaves the landscape timid and unimaginative. In Human Frontiers, Michael Bhaskar draws a vividly entertaining and expansive portrait of humanity's relationship with big ideas. He argues that stasis at the frontier is the result of having already pushed so far, taken easy wins and started to hit limits. But new thinking is still possible. By adopting bold global approaches, deploying cutting edge technology like AI and embracing a culture of change, we can push through and expand afresh. Perfect for anyone who has wondered why we haven't gone further, this book shows in fascinating detail how the 21st century could stall - or be the most revolutionary time in human history.
What would a fair and equal society actually look like? The world-renowned economist and bestselling author Yanis Varoufakis presents his radical and subversive answer. Imagine it is 2025. Years earlier, in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008, a global hi-tech uprising has birthed a post-capitalist world in which work, money, land, digital networks and politics have been truly democratised. In a thought-experiment of startling originality, world-famous economist Yanis Varoufakis offers a glimpse of this alternative reality. Through the eyes of three characters - a libertarian ex-banker, a Marxist-feminist and a maverick technologist - we see the genesis of a world without commercial banks or stock markets, where companies are owned equally by all staff, basic income is guaranteed, global imbalances and climate change cancel each other out, and housing is socialised. Is a liberal socialism feasible? Can prosperity grow without costing the Earth? Are we able to build the good society, despite our flaws? As radical in its form as in its vision, Another Now blends Platonic dialogue with speculative fiction to show that there is an alternative to capitalism, while also confronting us with the greatest question: how far are we willing to go to bring it about?
Examines how AI/Robotics is overwhelming the fundamental institutions of Western society. But are we prepared for the social impact of the vast changes soon to be upon us? - Half the world's workers could be replaced by machines within the next 30 years. The McKinsey Global Institute and Oxford University researchers predict massive job loss with 47% to 50% of US jobs eliminated by 2030 and up to 800 million more jobs destroyed worldwide. - Nor will the AI/robotics transformation produce large numbers of replacement jobs. The AI/robotics systems are already being designed to do those. No area of work is sacrosanct. Work opportunities are being eliminated from the most "intellectual" activities down to the basic areas of services and labor, including a range of professional occupations heretofore thought of as distinctly human: in middle management, finance, banking, insurance, medicine, high-tech, transportation, law and even the arts. Worse, it is playing out in the context of a set of critical issues. - Birth rates are plummeting below replacement levels in economically developed nations. People are living to ages wellbeyond historical averages. - At least fifty percent of Americans have little or nothing saved for retirement. - Poor and uneducated migrants are coming into Western nations at a time when the agricultural, construction and home care jobs migrants have traditionally filled are being increasingly replaced by robotic workers. - An already bankrupt US government is projected to experience annual deficits above $1 trillion for at least the next ten years. The US national debt is officially admitted to be $21 trillion, but is actually closer to $65 trillion dollars according to a former US Comptroller General. As AI/robotics eliminates jobs across the spectrum, governmental revenues will plummet while the debt increases dramatically. This crisis of limited resources on all levels--underfunded or non-existent pensions, health problems, lack of savings, and job destruction--will drive many into homelessness and produce a dramatic rise in violence . All this will take place in an environment of increased AI-facilitated surveillance by governments, aggressive militarization using AI systems and autonomous weapons, and the degradation of of the world;s economic and political order. The final five chapters of CONTAGION offer possible solutions.
Too often Indigenous peoples have been portrayed as being without a future, destined either to disappear or assimilate into settler society. This book asserts quite the opposite: Indigenous peoples are not in any sense "out of time" in our contemporary world. Shaping the Future on Haida Gwaii shows how Indigenous peoples in Canada not only continue to have a future, but are at work building many different futures - for themselves and for their non-Indigenous neighbours. Through the experiences of the Haida First Nation, this book explores these possible futures in detail, demonstrating how Haida ways of thinking about time, mobility, and political leadership are at the heart of contemporary strategies for addressing the dilemmas that come with life under settler colonialism.
Das vorliegende Buch enthalt aktuelle Beitrage aus dem Friedensforschungszentrum Tamera in Portugal. In einer Zeit, in der die Medien voll sind von Kriegs- und Katastrophenmeldungen, offnet sich hier ein geistiges Tor zu einer anderen Entwicklungsmoglichkeit: Unser Planet mit seinen Menschen und Tieren, seinen Landschaften und Gewassern ist heilbar, wenn wir diese Heilung mit aller Kraft wollen und umsetzen. Die einzelnen Beitrage sind Studientexte der Schule Terra Nova. Weltweit haben Gruppen von Menschen be-gonnen, die vorliegenden Gedanken zu studieren und in ihren Freundeskreisen und Netzwerken zu verbreiten. Gemeinsam arbeiten sie daran, ein globales Bewusstsein daruber aufzubauen, dass und wie ein profunder Systemwechsel gelingen kann. Es ist eine neue Art von Revolution. Sie ist ohne Vorbild. Fast noch im Verborgenen, undogmatisch und offen fur alle, die sich ihr anschliessen wollen, bahnt sich hier ein neuer menschheitlicher Impuls seinen W |
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