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Books > Social sciences > Sociology, social studies > Social research & statistics > Social forecasting, futurology
The future as a field of inquiry, debate or forecasts continues to flourish. However, this book differs from existing literature in several important ways. It is not another publication on future scenarios guided by a linear technological fix - nor is it simply a volume of new statistics on economic, demographic or geopolitical developments. Rather, Future Courses of Human Societies explores and builds a general framework for the long-term evolution of human societies. Drawing upon a wide range of insights from across the social and natural sciences, the authors of this title present original, exploratory methodological and analytical approaches to examining the future. Encouraging the reader to deepen their knowledge and encourage critical thinking, three themes are considered in their complexity and multi-dimensionality: technological innovations; future 'progress'; and the critical aspect of organizing collective life in the future. Furthermore, in contrast to previous studies which have embraced a relatively short time-span, this text incorporates perspectives from the immediate to the distant future, extending to several centuries and even millennia. An interdisciplinary and internationally comprehensive volume, Future Courses of Human Societies is a key source for students and researchers interested in fields such as future studies, technology in society, interdisciplinary learnings on social and natural sciences and future economic and political evolutions.
For Akiva Jaap Vroman "a day in the infinite past" is nonsense. All the days that have elapsed belong to a past of countable days; they started on a first day a finite number of days ago. Time began this first day. It follows that an eternal past does not exist. Vroman bases his reasoning on a simple mathematical law: an infinite quantity remains the same infinite quantity if a finite quantity, however large, is subtracted from it. On God, Space, and Time devotes itself to this proof.On God, Space, and Time is rooted in the epistemological thinking of Immanuel Kant and Jean Piaget and the law of Leucippus, and draws from the somewhat disparate fields of psychology, physiology, mathematics, and physics. Vroman discusses the modern vindication of the existence of the Creator using ontological arguments, which observe the cosmos solely through our sense-perceptions and the world of space and matter. He balances this worldview with a discussion of brain chemistry and physiology in "God, Mind, and Body" showing that the world of space and matter is nothing but an interpretation made by our working mind. Vroman also describes the Spanish-based Jewish philosophers of the Middle Ages who came close to solving the Genesis-Creation contradiction, which cannot be reconciled through the external world of Greek philosophy.As we travel through time with Vroman, who ranges easily and poetically over important concepts and influential thinkers, we encounter a variety of subjects: Spinoza's new definition of God and the authority of reason in the age of Descartes, Leibniz, and Newton; Jewish idealists, such as Nachman Krochmal, Solomon L. Steinman, Solomon Formstecher, and Samuel Hirsch; the concept of space-time; and Johann Gottlieb Fichte, Arthur Schopenhauer, Max Wentscher, and Charles Darwin. He presents engaging, worthwhile discussions of futurology; the astrological world of sub-lunar events; religious eschatology, specifically the Jewish and Christian Messiah; apocalyptic revelation in psychological science, the future of the universe, God and moral virtue, the medical approach to the question of life and death, and finally, personal thoughts on religious worship and service based on reason and moral sense. On God, Space, and Timea valuable historical synthesis of Western thought on man's vision of God, and consequently reality. This volume will interest many, particularly those intrigued by philosophy, religion, and futurology.
Inhabitable Infrastructures: Science fiction or urban future?, the follow up to Food City and Smartcities and Eco-Warriors, from one of the world's leading urban design and architectural thinkers, explores the potential of climate change-related multi-use infrastructures that address the fundamental human requirements to protect, to provide and to participate. The stimulus for the infrastructures derives from postulated scenarios and processes gleaned from science fiction and futurology as well as the current body of scientific knowledge regarding changing environmental impacts on cities. Science fiction is interdisciplinary by nature, aggregates the past and present, and evaluates both lay opinions and professional strategies in an attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures. The research culminates in the creation of innovative multi-use infrastructures and integrated self-sustaining support systems that meet the challenges posed through climate change and overpopulation, and the reciprocal benefits of simultaneously addressing the threat and the shaping of cities. J. G. Ballard has written that the psychological realm of science fiction is most valuable in its predictive function, and in projecting emotions into the future. The knowledge from the book is widely transferable, constituting both solutions and speculative visions of future urban environments. The book is indispensable reading for professionals and students in the fields of urban design, architecture, engineering and environmental socio-politics.
Inhuman Thoughts is a philosophical exploration of the possibility of increasing the physiological and psychological capacities of humans to the point that they are no longer biologically, psychologically, or socially human. The movement is from the human through the trans-human, to the post-human. The tone is optimistic; Seidel argues that such an evolution would be of positive value on the whole. Seidel's initial argument supports the need for a comprehensive ethical theory, the success of which would parallel that of a large-scale scientific revolution, such as Newtonian mechanics. He elaborates the movement from the improved-but-still-human to the post-human, and philosophically examines speculated examples of post-human forms of life, including indefinitely extended life-span, parallel consciousness, altered perception, a-sociality, and a-sexuality. Inhuman Thoughts is directed at those interested in philosophical questions on human nature and the best life given the possibilities of that nature. Seidel's overall argument is that the most satisfactory answer to the latter question involves a transcendence of the present confines of human nature.
Born in the first year of the 20th century, it is fitting that Margaret Mead should have been one of the first anthropologists to use anthropological analysis to study the future course of human civilization. This volume collects, for the first time, her writings on the future of humanity and how humans can shape that future through purposeful action. For Mead, the study of the future was born out of her lifelong interest in processes of change. Many of these papers were originally published as conference proceedings or in limited-circulation journals, testimony before government bodies and chapters in works edited by others. They show Mead's wisdom, prescience and concern for the future of humanity.
First Published in 1965. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
To most, the collapse of modern civilization is the stuff of fiction. Yet, science confirms that misuse of technology and environmental abuse places our world in grave danger of ruin. The World Scientists' Warning to Humanity places our civilization on a collision course. Defying Dystopia analyses how we have come to this, and what options remain for far-seeing people to take control of their own destiny and survive the future. Ed Ayres, who has worked with some iconic environmental scientists of the past half-century, argues that technology was originally used to augment the natural strengths of humans, but has been increasingly used in ways that weaken us-shifting from useful work to the industries of distraction, entertainment, convenience, pain-relief, and sedation. Ayres advises on how at least some of us can avoid that collision. The most critical task, for those of us who want humanity to survive and thrive, is to disengage from our tech thraldom, and shift to a conscious management of our evolution in which we use technology to enhance our skills and strengths rather than erode or supplant them. Ayres provides insightful, actionable suggestions we can use to increase our odds of survival. He asks far-seeing individuals to take on a mission that the dominant governments and institutions demonstrably cannot: the epic task of shepherding a low-profile, resilient transition to a new kind of human future.
This book explores the relationship between space tourism and the discourse in sustainability and futures research. It offers comprehensive information on the current understanding of the space tourism industry and assesses the possible impacts of space tourism on the environment, economics, legislation and society. The volume aims to encourage more dialogue and critical examinations of aspects of space tourism related to future sustainability. From data gathered from empirical research, it provides a vision for the future of sustainable space tourism. It will be of interest to students and researchers in tourism, sustainability and futures studies, as well as individual space tourist 'hopefuls', space tourism industry operators and tourism policy regulators.
Seymour W. Itzkoff is one of the world's leading intelligence researchers. His exciting new book Our Unfinished Biological Revolution offers a bold and highly original new study on the evolution of human intelligence from the origin of life to our times. With the help of evolutionary theory, Itzkoff explains the nature of human intelligence as we know it today. Most importantly, it demonstrates that evolution led to the rise of what intelligence researchers call the general intelligence factor: the human ability to plan ahead and solve problems for which natural selection did not prepare us. The book also argues that humans vary in intelligence (as with all traits shaped by Darwinian evolution), and hence in their propensity to think abstractly and anticipate long-term consequences of their actions. Our Unfinished Biological Revolution explores the social implications of these two factors as they unfold in modern technological societies, in which intelligence plays an increasingly important role. Finally, the book argues that human intelligence may offer our best hope in solving the daunting problems of the present era?including population growth, the exhaustion of natural resources, and the rise of simplistic and devastating ideologies.
Mark Stevenson has been to the future a few years ahead of the rest of us - and reckons it has a lot going for it. His voyage of discovery takes him to Oxford to meet Transhumanists (they intend to live forever), to Boston where he confronts a robot with mood swings, to an underwater cabinet meeting in the Indian Ocean, and Australia to question the Outback's smartest farmer. He clambers around space planes in the Mojave desert, gets to grips with the potential of nanotechnology, delves deep into the possibilities of biotech, sees an energy renaissance on a printer, a revolution in communications, has his genome profiled, and glimpses the next stage of human evolution ... and tries to make sense of what's in store. Insightful and often very funny, An Optimist's Tour of the Future is a book that tracks one curious man's journey to find out what's in store.
Since the 1960s, the West has moved ever-leftwards. 'Equality' and 'feelings' are central to the New Religion that rejects all traditional values. Yet beneath the institutionally dominant 'Left' stews a growing and restless 'Right'. How has this fractured situation come about? What will the future hold? In The Past is a Future Country, the authors trace it back to the Industrial Revolution. Darwinian selection massively weakened, meaning that, for the first time in history, the selfish, sick and stupid could survive and reproduce, undermining our religious, group-oriented culture. Now the West is scourged by an epidemic of narcissists, competing to signal their individuality and moral superiority. But their 'fight for equality' is really a fight for self-promotion. Reflecting this runaway individualism, Westerners increasingly don't have children, save for those who are genetically resistant to this onslaught - the staunchly conservative and religious: the eventual inheritors of the earth. But there is a dark storm brewing in the demographic data that the authors have analysed. There is a burgeoning growth in the population of exceptionally unintelligent and antisocial people that social welfare systems cannot sustain for much longer. The developed world will pass away, and the global population that depends on it will crash, in the greatest Malthusian Collapse of all time. Yet all is not lost. The authors show how a resistant class of intelligent, religious conservatives will band together to preserve enclaves of civilization that may survive most of the coming apocalypse, and from its ashes rebuild a new world: A Neo-Byzantium.
Problem-Solving Requires Innovation, Activism, and YouAn important read for those on the journey of making this world better and wondering where to start." Jacqueline Novogratz, founder and CEO of Acumen, author of New York Times bestseller The Blue Sweater #1 New Release in Volunteer Work, Philanthropy & Charity, and Nonprofit Organizations People from all walks of life yearn to do something that adds value to others and to be someone who makes a difference in their community and the world. Now Alex Amouyel is inviting you to become part of the solution. Alex, author of The Answer is You, is the founding Executive Director of Solve, an initiative at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) with a mission to solve world challenges. Solve finds incredible tech-based social entrepreneurs around the world and funds them to develop lasting, transformational tech-based solutions. Take action for social impact. The Answer is You is here to inform you that being a change agent starts with doing good deeds and being a community helper. Everyone can do something with the skills and resources they already have they just need ideas for how. The Answer is You inspires every person to start thinking critically about the problems we face and the solutions we might be able to offer to enact change. Inside, you'll find: Motivating and encouraging stories of amazing impact innovators from MIT Solve Guidance on how to take action in the world in big and small ways to get results A path to hope and action for problem-solving in your community and within society If you like books by women in leadership and enjoyed reading Create the Future + the Innovation Handbook: Tactics for Disruptive Thinking, Believe in People: Bottom-Up Solutions for a Top-Down World, The Innovator's DNA: Mastering the Five Skills of Disruptive Innovators, you'll love The Answer is You: A Guidebook to Creating a Life Full of Impact.
What will replace fossil fuel? Is there a way forward using renewable energy sources while avoiding nuclear power? This book argues that nuclear is unlikely to have much of a role in future, and shows that the pro- and anti-nuclear debate has absorbed too much time and energy over the years. This has been to the detriment of a more relevant, interesting and increasingly urgent debate over what sort of renewable/efficiency mix we need. This book engages in that debate, exploring the implications of shifting to greener, cleaner energy sources. Importantly, David Elliott argues there is no one green future. There is a range of possible options of various types and scales: we need to choose amongst them. This book offers an overview of the technical, economic and environmental issues to help scholars, professionals and policy makers involved in discussing those options.
Hip-Hop and Dismantling the School-to-Prison Pipeline was created for K-12 students in hopes that they find tangible strategies for creating affirming communities where students, parents, advocates and community members collaborate to compose liberating and just frameworks that effectively define the school-to-prison pipeline and identify the nefarious ways it adversely affects their lives. This book is for educators, activists, community organizers, teachers, scholars, politicians, and administrators who we hope will join us in challenging the predominant preconceived notion held by many educators that Hip-Hop has no redeemable value. Lastly, the authors/editors argue against the understanding of Hip-Hop studies as primarily an academic endeavor situated solely in the academy. They understand the fact that people on streets, blocks, avenues, have been living and theorizing about Hip-Hop since its inception. This important critical book is an honest, thorough, powerful, and robust examination of the ingenious and inventive ways people who have an allegiance to Hip-Hop work tirelessly, in various capacities, to dismantle the school-to-prison pipeline.
This book documents the first five years of life of the children of the influential Millennium Cohort Study, which is tracking almost 19,000 babies born in 2000 and 2001 in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. This book is the second in a series of books which will report on the findings from the data and follows on from Children of the 21st century: From birth to nine months (The Policy Press, 2005). It takes an extended look at the children's lives and development as they grow and begin formal education, and the implications for family policy, and service planning in health and social services. The chapters in this book are written by experts across a wide range of social science and health fields and form a unique look at the early lives of children that cuts across disciplinary boundaries. It is essential reading for academics, students and researchers in these fields. It will also be of relevance to policy makers and practitioners with an interest in children's early years, family life, child development, child poverty, childcare and education and health care.
This book explores the relationship between space tourism and the discourse in sustainability and futures research. It offers comprehensive information on the current understanding of the space tourism industry and assesses the possible impacts of space tourism on the environment, economics, legislation and society. The volume aims to encourage more dialogue and critical examinations of aspects of space tourism related to future sustainability. From data gathered from empirical research, it provides a vision for the future of sustainable space tourism. It will be of interest to students and researchers in tourism, sustainability and futures studies, as well as individual space tourist 'hopefuls', space tourism industry operators and tourism policy regulators.
'A remarkably hopeful and useful book...The climate crisis leaves us no choice but to build a new world and as Sanderson makes clear, we are capable of making it a better one than the dirty and dangerous planet we've come to take for granted.' Bill McKibben, Observer book of the week We depend on a handful of metals and rare earths to power our phones and computers. Increasingly, we rely on them to power our cars and our homes. Whoever controls these finite commodities will become rich beyond imagining. Sanderson journeys to meet the characters, companies, and nations scrambling for the new resources, linking remote mines in the Congo and Chile's Atacama Desert to giant Chinese battery factories, shadowy commodity traders, secretive billionaires, a new generation of scientists attempting to solve the dilemma of a 'greener' world.
Technology moves fast - so where will it have taken us by 2050? How will it affect the way we live? And how far are we willing to let it go? In Megatech, distinguished scientists, industry leaders, star academics and acclaimed science-fiction writers join journalists from The Economist to explore answers to these questions and more. Twenty experts in the field, including Nobel prize-winner Frank Wilczek, Silicon Valley venture-capitalist Ann Winblad, philanthropist Melinda Gates and science-fiction author Alastair Reynolds identify the big ideas, fantastic inventions and potentially sinister trends that will shape our future. Join them to explore a brave new world of brain-computer interfaces, vat-grown cruelty-free meat, knitted cars and guided bullets. The writers predict the vast changes that technology will bring to everything from food production to health care, energy output, manufacturing and the military balance. They also consider the impact on jobs, and how we can prepare for the opportunities, as well as the dangers, that await. Thought-provoking, engaging and full of insight from the forefront of tech innovation, Megatech is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand tomorrow's world.
The Common Good: Rising of a New Dawn will forever change how you see your "neighbor." It will take you on a captivating spiritual journey through America, where ordinary people are making an extraordinary difference in the lives of many. With passion, wit, and wisdom, Juanita Farrow discusses business, politics, and religion, and paints a compelling picture of how the common good is not only God's desire for America but why it's "good" for America. The Common Good: Rising of a New Dawn explains how living a more conscious life can heal a nation-one heart, one mind, one thought at a time.
In the decades after the Civil War, the world experienced monumental changes in industry, trade, and governance. As Americans faced this uncertain future, public debate sprang up over the accuracy and value of predictions, asking whether it was possible to look into the future with any degree of certainty. In Looking Forward, Jamie L. Pietruska uncovers a culture of prediction in the modern era, where forecasts became commonplace as crop forecasters, "weather prophets," business forecasters, utopian novelists, and fortune-tellers produced and sold their visions of the future. Private and government forecasters competed for authority as well as for an audience and a single prediction could make or break a forecaster's reputation. Pietruska argues that this late nineteenth-century quest for future certainty had an especially ironic consequence: it led Americans to accept uncertainty as an inescapable part of both forecasting and twentieth-century economic and cultural life. Drawing together histories of science, technology, capitalism, environment, and culture, Looking Forward explores how forecasts functioned as new forms of knowledge and risk management tools that sometimes mitigated, but at other times exacerbated, the very uncertainties they were designed to conquer. Ultimately Pietruska shows how Americans came to understand the future itself as predictable, yet still uncertain.
OUT NOW: the new book from the bestselling authors and hosts of the wildy popular 'The Skeptics Guide to the Universe' __________ Our predictions of the future are a wild fantasy, inextricably linked to our present hopes and fears, biases and ignorance. Whether they be the outlandish leaps predicted in the 1920s, like multi-purpose utility belts with climate control capabilities and planes the size of luxury cruise ships, or the forecasts of the '60s, which didn't anticipate the sexual revolution or women's liberation, the path to the present is littered with failed predictions and incorrect estimations. The best we can do is try to absorb from futurism's checkered past, perhaps learning to do a little better. In The Skeptics' Guide To The Future, Steven Novella and his co-authors build upon the work of futurists of the past by examining what they got right, what they got wrong, and how they came to those conclusions. By exploring the pitfalls of each era, they give their own speculations about the distant future, transformed by unbelievable technology ranging from genetic manipulation to artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Applying their trademark skepticism, they carefully extrapolate upon each scientific development, leaving no stone unturned as they lay out a vision for the future of tomorrow. __________
A powerful investigation into the chances for humanity's future
from the author of the bestseller The World Without Us.
Assessing the future is vital in informing public policy decisions. One of the most widespread approaches is the development of scenarios, which are alternative hypothetical futures. Research has indicated, however, that the reality of how professionals go about employing scenarios is often starkly at odds with the theory - a finding that has important ramifications for how the resulting images of the future should be interpreted. It also shows the need for rewriting and updating theory. This book, based on an intensive five year study of how experts actually go about assessing the future, provides a groundbreaking examination of foresighting in action. Obtained via ethnographic techniques, the results lay bare for the first time the real processes by which scenarios are made. It is also the first book to examine foresighting for public policy, which is so often overlooked in favour of business practice. From handling of discontinuity to historical determinism, the analysis reveals and explains why foresight is difficult and what the major pitfalls are. Each chapter ends with a toolkit of recommendations for practice. The book aims to help readers to reflect on their own practices of public-oriented foresight and thus to foster a deeper understanding of the key principles and challenges. Ultimately, this will lead to better informed decision making.
How do you predict something that has never happened before? There's a useful calculation being employed by Wall Street, Silicon Valley and maths professors all over the world, and it predicts that the human species will become extinct in 760 years. Unfortunately, there is disagreement over how to apply the formula, and some argue that we might only have twenty years left. Originally devised by British clergyman Thomas Bayes, the theorem languished in obscurity for two hundred years before being resurrected as the lynchpin of the digital economy. With brief detours into archaeology, philology, and overdue library books, William Poundstone explains how we can use it to predict pretty much anything. What is the chance that there are multiple universes? How long will Hamilton run? Will the US stock market continue to perform as well this century as it has for the last hundred years? And are we really all doomed? |
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