![]() |
![]() |
Your cart is empty |
||
Books > Social sciences > Sociology, social studies > Social research & statistics > Social forecasting, futurology
Where is the world heading at the turn of the twenty-first century?
Towards a desolate landscape of disintegrating societies or towards
the construction of new institutions to mitigate violence, reduce
poverty and promote peace in a rapidly changing global context? Do
ideas of globalization reflect reality and how far are they either
new or helpful? Can trends identified in the near and distant past
be helpfully extrapolated to predict the future and to understand
the present?
The things we do today may make life worse for future generations. But why should we care what happens to people who won't be born until after all of us are gone? Some philosophers have treated this as a question about our moral responsibilities, and have argued that we have duties of beneficence to promote the well-being of our descendants. Rather than focusing exclusively on issues of moral responsibility, Samuel Scheffler considers the broader question of why and how future generations matter to us. Although we lack a developed set of ideas about the value of human continuity, we are more invested in the fate of our descendants than we may realize. Implicit in our existing values and attachments are a variety of powerful reasons for wanting the chain of human generations to persist into the indefinite future under conditions conducive to human flourishing. This has implications for the way we think about problems like climate change. And it means that some of our strongest reasons for caring about the future of humanity depend not on our moral duty to promote the good but rather on our existing evaluative attachments and on our conservative disposition to preserve and sustain the things that we value. This form of conservatism supports rather than inhibits a concern for future generations, and it is an important component of the complex stance we take toward the temporal dimension of our lives.
The future as a field of inquiry, debate or forecasts continues to flourish. However, this book differs from existing literature in several important ways. It is not another publication on future scenarios guided by a linear technological fix - nor is it simply a volume of new statistics on economic, demographic or geopolitical developments. Rather, Future Courses of Human Societies explores and builds a general framework for the long-term evolution of human societies. Drawing upon a wide range of insights from across the social and natural sciences, the authors of this title present original, exploratory methodological and analytical approaches to examining the future. Encouraging the reader to deepen their knowledge and encourage critical thinking, three themes are considered in their complexity and multi-dimensionality: technological innovations; future 'progress'; and the critical aspect of organizing collective life in the future. Furthermore, in contrast to previous studies which have embraced a relatively short time-span, this text incorporates perspectives from the immediate to the distant future, extending to several centuries and even millennia. An interdisciplinary and internationally comprehensive volume, Future Courses of Human Societies is a key source for students and researchers interested in fields such as future studies, technology in society, interdisciplinary learnings on social and natural sciences and future economic and political evolutions.
For Akiva Jaap Vroman "a day in the infinite past" is nonsense. All the days that have elapsed belong to a past of countable days; they started on a first day a finite number of days ago. Time began this first day. It follows that an eternal past does not exist. Vroman bases his reasoning on a simple mathematical law: an infinite quantity remains the same infinite quantity if a finite quantity, however large, is subtracted from it. On God, Space, and Time devotes itself to this proof.On God, Space, and Time is rooted in the epistemological thinking of Immanuel Kant and Jean Piaget and the law of Leucippus, and draws from the somewhat disparate fields of psychology, physiology, mathematics, and physics. Vroman discusses the modern vindication of the existence of the Creator using ontological arguments, which observe the cosmos solely through our sense-perceptions and the world of space and matter. He balances this worldview with a discussion of brain chemistry and physiology in "God, Mind, and Body" showing that the world of space and matter is nothing but an interpretation made by our working mind. Vroman also describes the Spanish-based Jewish philosophers of the Middle Ages who came close to solving the Genesis-Creation contradiction, which cannot be reconciled through the external world of Greek philosophy.As we travel through time with Vroman, who ranges easily and poetically over important concepts and influential thinkers, we encounter a variety of subjects: Spinoza's new definition of God and the authority of reason in the age of Descartes, Leibniz, and Newton; Jewish idealists, such as Nachman Krochmal, Solomon L. Steinman, Solomon Formstecher, and Samuel Hirsch; the concept of space-time; and Johann Gottlieb Fichte, Arthur Schopenhauer, Max Wentscher, and Charles Darwin. He presents engaging, worthwhile discussions of futurology; the astrological world of sub-lunar events; religious eschatology, specifically the Jewish and Christian Messiah; apocalyptic revelation in psychological science, the future of the universe, God and moral virtue, the medical approach to the question of life and death, and finally, personal thoughts on religious worship and service based on reason and moral sense. On God, Space, and Timea valuable historical synthesis of Western thought on man's vision of God, and consequently reality. This volume will interest many, particularly those intrigued by philosophy, religion, and futurology.
Inhabitable Infrastructures: Science fiction or urban future?, the follow up to Food City and Smartcities and Eco-Warriors, from one of the world's leading urban design and architectural thinkers, explores the potential of climate change-related multi-use infrastructures that address the fundamental human requirements to protect, to provide and to participate. The stimulus for the infrastructures derives from postulated scenarios and processes gleaned from science fiction and futurology as well as the current body of scientific knowledge regarding changing environmental impacts on cities. Science fiction is interdisciplinary by nature, aggregates the past and present, and evaluates both lay opinions and professional strategies in an attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures. The research culminates in the creation of innovative multi-use infrastructures and integrated self-sustaining support systems that meet the challenges posed through climate change and overpopulation, and the reciprocal benefits of simultaneously addressing the threat and the shaping of cities. J. G. Ballard has written that the psychological realm of science fiction is most valuable in its predictive function, and in projecting emotions into the future. The knowledge from the book is widely transferable, constituting both solutions and speculative visions of future urban environments. The book is indispensable reading for professionals and students in the fields of urban design, architecture, engineering and environmental socio-politics.
Born in the first year of the 20th century, it is fitting that Margaret Mead should have been one of the first anthropologists to use anthropological analysis to study the future course of human civilization. This volume collects, for the first time, her writings on the future of humanity and how humans can shape that future through purposeful action. For Mead, the study of the future was born out of her lifelong interest in processes of change. Many of these papers were originally published as conference proceedings or in limited-circulation journals, testimony before government bodies and chapters in works edited by others. They show Mead's wisdom, prescience and concern for the future of humanity.
First Published in 1965. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
Thought the science of the future was all hoverboards and space travel? Think again. Every day, scientists come up with the ingenious solutions and surprising discoveries that will define our future. So here, Jim Al-Khalili and his crack team of experts bin the crystal ball and use cutting-edge science to get a glimpse of what's in store. From whether teleportation is really possible (spoiler: it is), to what we'll do if artificial intelligence takes over, What's Next? takes on the big questions. And along the way, it'll answer questions like: Will we find a cure to all diseases? An answer to climate change? Will bionics make us into superheroes? Touching on everything from genetics to transport, and nanotechnology to teleportation, What's Next? is a fascinating, fun and informative look at what's in store for the human race.
To most, the collapse of modern civilization is the stuff of fiction. Yet, science confirms that misuse of technology and environmental abuse places our world in grave danger of ruin. The World Scientists' Warning to Humanity places our civilization on a collision course. Defying Dystopia analyses how we have come to this, and what options remain for far-seeing people to take control of their own destiny and survive the future. Ed Ayres, who has worked with some iconic environmental scientists of the past half-century, argues that technology was originally used to augment the natural strengths of humans, but has been increasingly used in ways that weaken us-shifting from useful work to the industries of distraction, entertainment, convenience, pain-relief, and sedation. Ayres advises on how at least some of us can avoid that collision. The most critical task, for those of us who want humanity to survive and thrive, is to disengage from our tech thraldom, and shift to a conscious management of our evolution in which we use technology to enhance our skills and strengths rather than erode or supplant them. Ayres provides insightful, actionable suggestions we can use to increase our odds of survival. He asks far-seeing individuals to take on a mission that the dominant governments and institutions demonstrably cannot: the epic task of shepherding a low-profile, resilient transition to a new kind of human future.
In his long-awaited and provocative book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future-offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era-with changes in store.
Problem-Solving Requires Innovation, Activism, and YouAn important read for those on the journey of making this world better and wondering where to start." Jacqueline Novogratz, founder and CEO of Acumen, author of New York Times bestseller The Blue Sweater #1 New Release in Volunteer Work, Philanthropy & Charity, and Nonprofit Organizations People from all walks of life yearn to do something that adds value to others and to be someone who makes a difference in their community and the world. Now Alex Amouyel is inviting you to become part of the solution. Alex, author of The Answer is You, is the founding Executive Director of Solve, an initiative at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) with a mission to solve world challenges. Solve finds incredible tech-based social entrepreneurs around the world and funds them to develop lasting, transformational tech-based solutions. Take action for social impact. The Answer is You is here to inform you that being a change agent starts with doing good deeds and being a community helper. Everyone can do something with the skills and resources they already have they just need ideas for how. The Answer is You inspires every person to start thinking critically about the problems we face and the solutions we might be able to offer to enact change. Inside, you'll find: Motivating and encouraging stories of amazing impact innovators from MIT Solve Guidance on how to take action in the world in big and small ways to get results A path to hope and action for problem-solving in your community and within society If you like books by women in leadership and enjoyed reading Create the Future + the Innovation Handbook: Tactics for Disruptive Thinking, Believe in People: Bottom-Up Solutions for a Top-Down World, The Innovator's DNA: Mastering the Five Skills of Disruptive Innovators, you'll love The Answer is You: A Guidebook to Creating a Life Full of Impact.
This book explores the relationship between space tourism and the discourse in sustainability and futures research. It offers comprehensive information on the current understanding of the space tourism industry and assesses the possible impacts of space tourism on the environment, economics, legislation and society. The volume aims to encourage more dialogue and critical examinations of aspects of space tourism related to future sustainability. From data gathered from empirical research, it provides a vision for the future of sustainable space tourism. It will be of interest to students and researchers in tourism, sustainability and futures studies, as well as individual space tourist 'hopefuls', space tourism industry operators and tourism policy regulators.
The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times
This book documents the first five years of life of the children of the influential Millennium Cohort Study, which is tracking almost 19,000 babies born in 2000 and 2001 in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. This book is the second in a series of books which will report on the findings from the data and follows on from Children of the 21st century: From birth to nine months (The Policy Press, 2005). It takes an extended look at the children's lives and development as they grow and begin formal education, and the implications for family policy, and service planning in health and social services. The chapters in this book are written by experts across a wide range of social science and health fields and form a unique look at the early lives of children that cuts across disciplinary boundaries. It is essential reading for academics, students and researchers in these fields. It will also be of relevance to policy makers and practitioners with an interest in children's early years, family life, child development, child poverty, childcare and education and health care.
Bea meets Aaron. He's intelligent, handsome, makes her laugh and, most importantly, has a high rating on his genetic profile. What's not to like? Char is on the brink of landing her dream job and has big plans to start a family - but her blood rating threatens it all. In a world where future happiness depends on a single, inescapable blood test - which dictates everything from credit rating to dating prospects - how far will people go to beat the system and let nature take its course? The Phlebotomist questions the value we place on one another, whether knowledge really is power, and if it's truly possible for love to conquer all.
Hip-Hop and Dismantling the School-to-Prison Pipeline was created for K-12 students in hopes that they find tangible strategies for creating affirming communities where students, parents, advocates and community members collaborate to compose liberating and just frameworks that effectively define the school-to-prison pipeline and identify the nefarious ways it adversely affects their lives. This book is for educators, activists, community organizers, teachers, scholars, politicians, and administrators who we hope will join us in challenging the predominant preconceived notion held by many educators that Hip-Hop has no redeemable value. Lastly, the authors/editors argue against the understanding of Hip-Hop studies as primarily an academic endeavor situated solely in the academy. They understand the fact that people on streets, blocks, avenues, have been living and theorizing about Hip-Hop since its inception. This important critical book is an honest, thorough, powerful, and robust examination of the ingenious and inventive ways people who have an allegiance to Hip-Hop work tirelessly, in various capacities, to dismantle the school-to-prison pipeline.
Hierdie boek behandel vier hooftemas: Die toekoms van Afrikaners in `n uiters onseker land; Die aard van Afrikaans-wees en Afrikaner-wees - verlede, hede en toekoms; Sleutelvoorwaardes vir `n vooruitstrewende Suid-Afrika; Wat staan ons as Afrikaners te doen om `n goeie toekoms te help skep?
This book explores the relationship between space tourism and the discourse in sustainability and futures research. It offers comprehensive information on the current understanding of the space tourism industry and assesses the possible impacts of space tourism on the environment, economics, legislation and society. The volume aims to encourage more dialogue and critical examinations of aspects of space tourism related to future sustainability. From data gathered from empirical research, it provides a vision for the future of sustainable space tourism. It will be of interest to students and researchers in tourism, sustainability and futures studies, as well as individual space tourist 'hopefuls', space tourism industry operators and tourism policy regulators.
The Common Good: Rising of a New Dawn will forever change how you see your "neighbor." It will take you on a captivating spiritual journey through America, where ordinary people are making an extraordinary difference in the lives of many. With passion, wit, and wisdom, Juanita Farrow discusses business, politics, and religion, and paints a compelling picture of how the common good is not only God's desire for America but why it's "good" for America. The Common Good: Rising of a New Dawn explains how living a more conscious life can heal a nation-one heart, one mind, one thought at a time.
In the decades after the Civil War, the world experienced monumental changes in industry, trade, and governance. As Americans faced this uncertain future, public debate sprang up over the accuracy and value of predictions, asking whether it was possible to look into the future with any degree of certainty. In Looking Forward, Jamie L. Pietruska uncovers a culture of prediction in the modern era, where forecasts became commonplace as crop forecasters, "weather prophets," business forecasters, utopian novelists, and fortune-tellers produced and sold their visions of the future. Private and government forecasters competed for authority as well as for an audience and a single prediction could make or break a forecaster's reputation. Pietruska argues that this late nineteenth-century quest for future certainty had an especially ironic consequence: it led Americans to accept uncertainty as an inescapable part of both forecasting and twentieth-century economic and cultural life. Drawing together histories of science, technology, capitalism, environment, and culture, Looking Forward explores how forecasts functioned as new forms of knowledge and risk management tools that sometimes mitigated, but at other times exacerbated, the very uncertainties they were designed to conquer. Ultimately Pietruska shows how Americans came to understand the future itself as predictable, yet still uncertain.
This volume presents a comprehensive analysis of global future scenarios and their impact on a growing, shared culture. Ever since the end of the Cold War, a diverse range of future concepts has emerged in various areas of academia-and even in popular journalism. A number of these key concepts-'the end of history,' 'the clash of civilizations,' 'the coming anarchy,' 'the world is flat,' 'soft power,' 'the post-American century'-suggest what could become characteristic of this new, interconnected world. Ulf Hannerz scrutinizes these ideas, considers their legacy, and suggests further dialogue between authors of the 'American scenario' and commentators elsewhere.
Assessing the future is vital in informing public policy decisions. One of the most widespread approaches is the development of scenarios, which are alternative hypothetical futures. Research has indicated, however, that the reality of how professionals go about employing scenarios is often starkly at odds with the theory - a finding that has important ramifications for how the resulting images of the future should be interpreted. It also shows the need for rewriting and updating theory. This book, based on an intensive five year study of how experts actually go about assessing the future, provides a groundbreaking examination of foresighting in action. Obtained via ethnographic techniques, the results lay bare for the first time the real processes by which scenarios are made. It is also the first book to examine foresighting for public policy, which is so often overlooked in favour of business practice. From handling of discontinuity to historical determinism, the analysis reveals and explains why foresight is difficult and what the major pitfalls are. Each chapter ends with a toolkit of recommendations for practice. The book aims to help readers to reflect on their own practices of public-oriented foresight and thus to foster a deeper understanding of the key principles and challenges. Ultimately, this will lead to better informed decision making.
A powerful investigation into the chances for humanity's future
from the author of the bestseller The World Without Us.
What are some of the most distinctive features of the crisis characterising the social sciences learning today? Can a crisis of this deep-rooted and extremely wide-ranging nature be delimitated to a few specific areas? Can the social sciences diverse dilemmas be reduced to the feature of crisis alone? This book argues that the social sciences are in a deep state of crisis. Kleber Ghimire analyzes how some of the basic problems began from the very inception: uncritical use of empiricism and experimentation methods emulating the natural sciences, internal fragmentation of knowledge along narrow disciplinary lines, and near-exclusive emphasis on the experience of industrial societies. As these difficulties persist, more recent evolutions have brought additional troubles. With a focus on Europe, North America and Asia, Kleber Ghimire examines the effects of university reforms that give prominence to expertise-oriented research, economic rationality and occupational skill development, leading to a widespread marginalisation of the social and human studies. The book ends with a call to reflect upon opening a new horizon for these fields of learning, especially by inventing a new era of social sciences pedagogy, leaving natural sciences for humanities and recognizing the value of culture as a crucial reservoir of social knowledge. |
![]() ![]() You may like...
New Data Structures and Algorithms for…
Luca Gaetano Amaru
Hardcover
Comparative Decision-Making Analysis
Thomas R. Zentall, Philip H. Crowley
Hardcover
R2,829
Discovery Miles 28 290
Cohesive Subgraph Computation over Large…
Lijun Chang, Lu Qin
Hardcover
R1,408
Discovery Miles 14 080
Foundations of Metacognition
Michael J Beran, Johannes Brandl, …
Hardcover
R3,384
Discovery Miles 33 840
|