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Books > Social sciences > Sociology, social studies > Social research & statistics > Social forecasting, futurology
The things we do today may make life worse for future generations. But why should we care what happens to people who won't be born until after all of us are gone? Some philosophers have treated this as a question about our moral responsibilities, and have argued that we have duties of beneficence to promote the well-being of our descendants. Rather than focusing exclusively on issues of moral responsibility, Samuel Scheffler considers the broader question of why and how future generations matter to us. Although we lack a developed set of ideas about the value of human continuity, we are more invested in the fate of our descendants than we may realize. Implicit in our existing values and attachments are a variety of powerful reasons for wanting the chain of human generations to persist into the indefinite future under conditions conducive to human flourishing. This has implications for the way we think about problems like climate change. And it means that some of our strongest reasons for caring about the future of humanity depend not on our moral duty to promote the good but rather on our existing evaluative attachments and on our conservative disposition to preserve and sustain the things that we value. This form of conservatism supports rather than inhibits a concern for future generations, and it is an important component of the complex stance we take toward the temporal dimension of our lives.
The future as a field of inquiry, debate or forecasts continues to flourish. However, this book differs from existing literature in several important ways. It is not another publication on future scenarios guided by a linear technological fix - nor is it simply a volume of new statistics on economic, demographic or geopolitical developments. Rather, Future Courses of Human Societies explores and builds a general framework for the long-term evolution of human societies. Drawing upon a wide range of insights from across the social and natural sciences, the authors of this title present original, exploratory methodological and analytical approaches to examining the future. Encouraging the reader to deepen their knowledge and encourage critical thinking, three themes are considered in their complexity and multi-dimensionality: technological innovations; future 'progress'; and the critical aspect of organizing collective life in the future. Furthermore, in contrast to previous studies which have embraced a relatively short time-span, this text incorporates perspectives from the immediate to the distant future, extending to several centuries and even millennia. An interdisciplinary and internationally comprehensive volume, Future Courses of Human Societies is a key source for students and researchers interested in fields such as future studies, technology in society, interdisciplinary learnings on social and natural sciences and future economic and political evolutions.
In The Future Is Analog, David Sax points out that the onset of the pandemic instantly gave us the digital universe we'd spent so long anticipating. Instant communication, online shopping, virtual everything. It didn't take long to realize how awful it was to live in this promised future. We craved real experiences, relationships, and spaces and got back to real life as quickly and often as we could. In chapters exploring work, school, religion, and more, this book asks pointed questions: Is our future inevitably digital? Can we reject the downsides of digital technology without rejecting change? Can we innovate not for the sake of productivity but for the good of our social and cultural lives? Can we build a future that serves us as humans, first and foremost? This is a manifesto for a different kind of change. We can spend our creativity and money on building new gadgets-or we can spend them on new ways to be together and experience the world, to bake bread, and climb mountains. All we need is the clarity to choose which future we want.
For Akiva Jaap Vroman "a day in the infinite past" is nonsense. All the days that have elapsed belong to a past of countable days; they started on a first day a finite number of days ago. Time began this first day. It follows that an eternal past does not exist. Vroman bases his reasoning on a simple mathematical law: an infinite quantity remains the same infinite quantity if a finite quantity, however large, is subtracted from it. On God, Space, and Time devotes itself to this proof.On God, Space, and Time is rooted in the epistemological thinking of Immanuel Kant and Jean Piaget and the law of Leucippus, and draws from the somewhat disparate fields of psychology, physiology, mathematics, and physics. Vroman discusses the modern vindication of the existence of the Creator using ontological arguments, which observe the cosmos solely through our sense-perceptions and the world of space and matter. He balances this worldview with a discussion of brain chemistry and physiology in "God, Mind, and Body" showing that the world of space and matter is nothing but an interpretation made by our working mind. Vroman also describes the Spanish-based Jewish philosophers of the Middle Ages who came close to solving the Genesis-Creation contradiction, which cannot be reconciled through the external world of Greek philosophy.As we travel through time with Vroman, who ranges easily and poetically over important concepts and influential thinkers, we encounter a variety of subjects: Spinoza's new definition of God and the authority of reason in the age of Descartes, Leibniz, and Newton; Jewish idealists, such as Nachman Krochmal, Solomon L. Steinman, Solomon Formstecher, and Samuel Hirsch; the concept of space-time; and Johann Gottlieb Fichte, Arthur Schopenhauer, Max Wentscher, and Charles Darwin. He presents engaging, worthwhile discussions of futurology; the astrological world of sub-lunar events; religious eschatology, specifically the Jewish and Christian Messiah; apocalyptic revelation in psychological science, the future of the universe, God and moral virtue, the medical approach to the question of life and death, and finally, personal thoughts on religious worship and service based on reason and moral sense. On God, Space, and Timea valuable historical synthesis of Western thought on man's vision of God, and consequently reality. This volume will interest many, particularly those intrigued by philosophy, religion, and futurology.
Inhabitable Infrastructures: Science fiction or urban future?, the follow up to Food City and Smartcities and Eco-Warriors, from one of the world's leading urban design and architectural thinkers, explores the potential of climate change-related multi-use infrastructures that address the fundamental human requirements to protect, to provide and to participate. The stimulus for the infrastructures derives from postulated scenarios and processes gleaned from science fiction and futurology as well as the current body of scientific knowledge regarding changing environmental impacts on cities. Science fiction is interdisciplinary by nature, aggregates the past and present, and evaluates both lay opinions and professional strategies in an attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures. The research culminates in the creation of innovative multi-use infrastructures and integrated self-sustaining support systems that meet the challenges posed through climate change and overpopulation, and the reciprocal benefits of simultaneously addressing the threat and the shaping of cities. J. G. Ballard has written that the psychological realm of science fiction is most valuable in its predictive function, and in projecting emotions into the future. The knowledge from the book is widely transferable, constituting both solutions and speculative visions of future urban environments. The book is indispensable reading for professionals and students in the fields of urban design, architecture, engineering and environmental socio-politics.
One of Barack Obama's Recommended Reads for Summer "[A] brave and necessary book . . . Anyone interested in the future of liberal democracy, in the US or anywhere else, should read this book." -Anne Applebaum "A convincing, humane, and hopeful guide to the present and future by one of our foremost democratic thinkers." -George Packer "A rare thing: [an] academic treatise . . . that may actually have influence in the arena of practical politics. . . . Passionate and personal." -Joe Klein, New York Times Book Review From one of our sharpest and most important political thinkers, a brilliant big-picture vision of the greatest challenge of our time-how to bridge the bitter divides within diverse democracies enough for them to remain stable and functional Some democracies are highly homogeneous. Others have long maintained a brutal racial or religious hierarchy, with some groups dominating and exploiting others. Never in history has a democracy succeeded in being both diverse and equal, treating members of many different ethnic or religious groups fairly. And yet achieving that goal is now central to the democratic project in countries around the world. It is, Yascha Mounk argues, the greatest experiment of our time. Drawing on history, social psychology, and comparative politics, Mounk examines how diverse societies have long suffered from the ills of domination, fragmentation, or structured anarchy. So it is hardly surprising that most people are now deeply pessimistic that different groups might be able to integrate in harmony, celebrating their differences without essentializing them. But Mounk shows us that the past can offer crucial insights for how to do better in the future. There is real reason for hope. It is up to us and the institutions we build whether different groups will come to see each other as enemies or friends, as strangers or compatriots. To make diverse democracies endure, and even thrive, we need to create a world in which our ascriptive identities come to matter less-not because we ignore the injustices that still characterize the United States and so many other countries around the world, but because we have succeeded in addressing them. The Great Experiment is that rare book that offers both a profound understanding of an urgent problem and genuine hope for our human capacity to solve it. As Mounk contends, giving up on the prospects of building fair and thriving diverse democracies is simply not an option-and that is why we must strive to realize a more ambitious vision for the future of our societies.
First Published in 1965. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
To most, the collapse of modern civilization is the stuff of fiction. Yet, science confirms that misuse of technology and environmental abuse places our world in grave danger of ruin. The World Scientists' Warning to Humanity places our civilization on a collision course. Defying Dystopia analyses how we have come to this, and what options remain for far-seeing people to take control of their own destiny and survive the future. Ed Ayres, who has worked with some iconic environmental scientists of the past half-century, argues that technology was originally used to augment the natural strengths of humans, but has been increasingly used in ways that weaken us-shifting from useful work to the industries of distraction, entertainment, convenience, pain-relief, and sedation. Ayres advises on how at least some of us can avoid that collision. The most critical task, for those of us who want humanity to survive and thrive, is to disengage from our tech thraldom, and shift to a conscious management of our evolution in which we use technology to enhance our skills and strengths rather than erode or supplant them. Ayres provides insightful, actionable suggestions we can use to increase our odds of survival. He asks far-seeing individuals to take on a mission that the dominant governments and institutions demonstrably cannot: the epic task of shepherding a low-profile, resilient transition to a new kind of human future.
In a world plagued by wicked problems, escaping the win-lose dynamics of zero-sum game approaches is crucial for finding integrated, inclusive solutions to complex issues. In this book, the reader will uncover real-life examples of inclusive leaders that have broken the zero-sum game. From Ivy League colleges to African villages, from the very top of the Catholic Church to anarchist conferences and meetings, inclusive leadership can be applied - and the protagonists will tell you how. As the examples in the book demonstrate, inclusive leadership is not the privilege of a few gifted individuals with extraordinary human qualities. Inclusive leaders are not necessarily charismatic (like Nelson Mandela, Gandhi, or Martin Luther King, Jr). The vast majority of inclusive leaders are just regular everyday people. They only differ - and what a difference it makes! - in being able to turn what seem to be zero-sum problems into opportunities for inclusiveness. Including a foreword from Edwin Hollander, a pioneering visionary of inclusive leadership, you will find concrete examples and tools in this book that you can start using from day one (and in your own way) as an inclusive leader.
Hip-Hop and Dismantling the School-to-Prison Pipeline was created for K-12 students in hopes that they find tangible strategies for creating affirming communities where students, parents, advocates and community members collaborate to compose liberating and just frameworks that effectively define the school-to-prison pipeline and identify the nefarious ways it adversely affects their lives. This book is for educators, activists, community organizers, teachers, scholars, politicians, and administrators who we hope will join us in challenging the predominant preconceived notion held by many educators that Hip-Hop has no redeemable value. Lastly, the authors/editors argue against the understanding of Hip-Hop studies as primarily an academic endeavor situated solely in the academy. They understand the fact that people on streets, blocks, avenues, have been living and theorizing about Hip-Hop since its inception. This important critical book is an honest, thorough, powerful, and robust examination of the ingenious and inventive ways people who have an allegiance to Hip-Hop work tirelessly, in various capacities, to dismantle the school-to-prison pipeline.
Hierdie boek behandel vier hooftemas: Die toekoms van Afrikaners in `n uiters onseker land; Die aard van Afrikaans-wees en Afrikaner-wees - verlede, hede en toekoms; Sleutelvoorwaardes vir `n vooruitstrewende Suid-Afrika; Wat staan ons as Afrikaners te doen om `n goeie toekoms te help skep?
In 2050 there will be 9.3 billion people alive - compared with 7 billion today - and the number will still be rising. The population aged over sixty-five will have more than doubled, to more than 16 per cent; China's GDP will be 80 per cent more than America's; and the number of cars on India's roads will have increased by 3,880 per cent. And, in 2050 it should be clear whether we are alone in the universe. What other megachanges can we expect - and what will their impact be? This comprehensive and compelling book will cover the most significant trends that are shaping the coming decades, with each of its twenty chapters elegantly and authoritatively outlined by Economist contributors, and rich in supporting facts and figures. It will chart the rise and fall of fertility rates across continents; how energy resources will change in light of new technology, and how different nations will deal with major developments in science and warfare. Megachange is essential reading for anyone who wants to know what the next four decades hold in store.
Assessing the future is vital in informing public policy decisions. One of the most widespread approaches is the development of scenarios, which are alternative hypothetical futures. Research has indicated, however, that the reality of how professionals go about employing scenarios is often starkly at odds with the theory - a finding that has important ramifications for how the resulting images of the future should be interpreted. It also shows the need for rewriting and updating theory. This book, based on an intensive five year study of how experts actually go about assessing the future, provides a groundbreaking examination of foresighting in action. Obtained via ethnographic techniques, the results lay bare for the first time the real processes by which scenarios are made. It is also the first book to examine foresighting for public policy, which is so often overlooked in favour of business practice. From handling of discontinuity to historical determinism, the analysis reveals and explains why foresight is difficult and what the major pitfalls are. Each chapter ends with a toolkit of recommendations for practice. The book aims to help readers to reflect on their own practices of public-oriented foresight and thus to foster a deeper understanding of the key principles and challenges. Ultimately, this will lead to better informed decision making.
This volume presents a comprehensive analysis of global future scenarios and their impact on a growing, shared culture. Ever since the end of the Cold War, a diverse range of future concepts has emerged in various areas of academia-and even in popular journalism. A number of these key concepts-'the end of history,' 'the clash of civilizations,' 'the coming anarchy,' 'the world is flat,' 'soft power,' 'the post-American century'-suggest what could become characteristic of this new, interconnected world. Ulf Hannerz scrutinizes these ideas, considers their legacy, and suggests further dialogue between authors of the 'American scenario' and commentators elsewhere.
A powerful investigation into the chances for humanity's future
from the author of the bestseller The World Without Us.
Immortal Passage: Philosophical Speculations on Posthuman Evolution is Asher Seidel's speculative account of posthuman evolution. Seidel begins with the transitional period in which humans begin to live for significantly extended periods, then moves to the closer future in which, having transitioned, the now posthumans enjoy enhanced cognitive and creative powers. Finally, Seidel enters the distant future, where our descendants might possess abilities beyond the limits of what is presently conceivable. Seidel's speculations engage various philosophical problems. Seidel seeks an ethical theory that co-develops with a deeper scientific understanding of ourselves. He also examines the metaphysical and epistemological presuppositions of his recommendation for human to posthuman transitioning, including mind-body dualism vigorous enough to allow for full-bodied consciousness, but insufficient for freewill; perceptual direct realism; and self-identity. As the speculations reach further into the future, various socio-political questions regarding the difficulties of transitioning are explored. Speculated possibilities of pain-free living, cooperative relationships, nonbiological selfhood, and radically enhanced cognitive abilities, are examined in depth in this mind-bending ride into the future of humankind.
Modern science, the Internet, big data, and AI are each saying the same thing to us: the world is--and always has been--far more complex and unpredictable than we've allowed ourselves to see. As a result we're undergoing a sea change in our understanding of how things happen, and in our deepest strategies for predicting, preparing for, and managing our lives and our businesses. For example, machine learning allows us to make better predictions (think the weather, stock performance, online clicks) but we know less about why those predictions are right--and we need to get used to that. And in fact, over the past twenty years we've been unintentionally developing strategies that avoid anticipating what will happen so we don't have to depend on unreliable revenue forecasts, assumptions about customer needs, and hypotheses about how a product will be used. By embracing these strategies, we're flourishing by creating yet more possibilities and yet more unpredictability. In wide-ranging stories and characteristically all-encompassing syntheses, technology researcher, internet expert, and philosopher David Weinberger reveals the trends that hide in so many aspects of our lives--and shows us how they matter.
Is another future possible? So called 'late modernity' is marked by the escalating rise in and proliferation of uncertainties and unforeseen events brought about by the interplay between and patterning of social-natural, techno-scientific and political-economic developments. The future has indeed become problematic. The question of how heterogeneous actors engage futures, what intellectual and practical strategies they put into play and what the implications of such strategies are, have become key concerns of recent social and cultural research addressing a diverse range of fields of practice and experience. Exploring questions of speculation, possibilities and futures in contemporary societies, Speculative Research responds to the pressing need to not only critically account for the role of calculative logics and rationalities in managing societal futures, but to develop alternative approaches and sensibilities that take futures seriously as possibilities and that demand new habits and practices of attention, invention, and experimentation.
A Stata Companion for The Fundamentals of Social Research offers students the opportunity to delve into the world of Stata using real data sets and statistical analysis techniques directly from Paul M. Kellstedt, Guy D. Whitten, and Steven A. Tuch's new textbook. Workbook sections parallel chapters in the main text, giving students a chance to apply the lessons and techniques learned in each chapter in a statistical software setting. Detailed chapters teach students to reproduce results presented in the textbook, allowing them to become comfortable performing statistical analyses for evaluating causal claims through repeated practice. Step-by-step instructions for using Stata are provided, along with command lines and screenshots to demonstrate proper use of the software. Instructions for producing the figures and tables in the main text are integrated throughout the workbook. End-of-chapter exercises encourage students to formulate and evaluate their own hypotheses.
"What might the futures of practice be like?" is far from a straightforward question. Emphasising "the" before the word future, implies one future. But futures thinkers have identified a range of futures that people think about. In this book we reflect on possible, probable, and preferable futures in relation to practice and work. Readers are invited to consider how their own engagement in shaping possible futures will support ways of working that they deem preferable, even those they can hardly imagine. Challenging Future Practice Possibilities also examines influences that are maintaining the status quo and others that are pushing interest-driven change. Authors consider the major challenges that practice and practitioners face today such as wicked problems, fears for the future and complex demands and opportunities posed by the digital revolution. A number of examples of future-oriented work directions such as protean careers and artificial intelligence enhancing or even replacing human workforces, are considered along with concerns like the vulnerability of many work situations and workers. In some cases workers and employers alike are unprepared for these challenges, while others see adapting to these situations as yet another pathway of practice futures evolution.
This book offers a critical account of the historical evolution of tourism through the identification and discussion of key turning points. Based on these considerations, future turning points are identified and evaluated. The volume provides a continuum between the past and future of tourism. Its central themes are the globalisation of tourism; the development of destinations; the importance of mobility and transport; the development of the modern hotel; the diversification of niche tourism and the conceptualisation of the past and future of tourism using the evolutionary paradigm in future studies. The core findings of the book provide the first perspective on how the history of tourism will shape its future.
This collection of original and classic essays examines the contributions that female authors have made to the short story. The introductory chapter discusses why genre critics have ignored works by women and why feminist scholars have ignored the short-story genre. Subsequent chapters discuss early stories by such authors as Lydia Maria Child and Rose Terry Cooke. Other chapters are devoted to the influences (race, class, sexual orientation, education) that have shaped women's short fiction through the years. Women's special stylistic, formal, and thematic concerns are also discussed in this study. The final essay addresses the ways our contemporary creative-writing classes are stifling the voices of emerging young female authors. The collection includes an extensive five-part bibliography.
In April 2010 Europe was shocked by the Greek financial turmoil. At that time, the global financial crisis, which started in the summer of 2007 and reached systemic dimensions in September 2008 with the Lehman Brothers' crash, took a new course. An adverse feedback loop between sovereign and bank risks reflected into bubble-like spreads, as if financial markets had received a wake-up call concerning the disregarded structural vulnerability of economies at risk. These events inspired the SYRTO project to "think and rethink" the economic and financial system and to conceive it as an "ensemble" of Sovereigns and Banks with other Financial Intermediaries and Corporations. Systemic Risk Tomography: Signals, Measurement and Transmission Channels proposes a novel way to explore the financial system by sectioning each part of it and analyzing all relevant inter-relationships. The financial system is inspected as a biological entity to identify the main risk signals and to provide the correct measures of prevention and intervention. |
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