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Books > Social sciences > Sociology, social studies > Social research & statistics > Social forecasting, futurology
Two defense experts explore the collision of war, politics, and social media, where the most important battles are now only a click away. Through the weaponization of social media, the internet is changing war and politics, just as war and politics are changing the internet. Terrorists livestream their attacks, "Twitter wars" produce real-world casualties, and viral misinformation alters not just the result of battles, but the very fate of nations. The result is that war, tech, and politics have blurred into a new kind of battlespace that plays out on our smartphones. P. W. Singer and Emerson Brooking tackle the mind-bending questions that arise when war goes online and the online world goes to war. They explore how ISIS copies the Instagram tactics of Taylor Swift, a former World of Warcraft addict foils war crimes thousands of miles away, internet trolls shape elections, and China uses a smartphone app to police the thoughts of 1.4 billion citizens. What can be kept secret in a world of networks? Does social media expose the truth or bury it? And what role do ordinary people now play in international conflicts? Delving into the web's darkest corners, we meet the unexpected warriors of social media, such as the rapper turned jihadist PR czar and the Russian hipsters who wage unceasing infowars against the West. Finally, looking to the crucial years ahead, LikeWar outlines a radical new paradigm for understanding and defending against the unprecedented threats of our networked world.
The twentieth century saw a grand procession of promises for the city. The great modern architect Le Corbusier dictated cities of glittering white towers planted in green parks, Frank Lloyd proposed cities with no downtown, cities spread across the countryside with each family on its homestead, and skyscraper utopians of the 1920s promised paradise on the one-hundredth floor with our airplane hangared next door. One thing was sure: the city of tomorrow would put to shame the city of yesterday. Another thing was certain, too: we would be happier, more peaceful (and productive) people. Here is Le Corbusier: "Free, man tends to geometry." And if we followed the "radiant harmony" of his geometry, the world's cities could become "irresistible forces stimulating collective enthusiasm, collective action, and general joy and pride, and inconsequence individual happiness everywhere . . . the modern world would emerge . . . and would beam around, powerful, happy, believing." There were others who promised deliverance through their brands of architecture: the right angle, the curvilinear road in the park, the tower of glass. Each fervently preached that his was the magic geometry that, like tumblers on a lock, would open the way to the good life. Cosmopolis is a pattern book of expectations, generously illustrated with a gathering of plans from the City Beautiful to the Italian Futurists, The Cite Industrielle, World's Fair utopias, science fiction visions, and the grand plans of the Moderns. Cosmopolis is the story of the ideal city we never achieved, and the great plans that went into making-over precincts of our urban language.
A collective engages and mirrors the critical need for energy justice and transformation Solarities considers the possibilities of organizing societies and economies around solar energy, and the challenges of a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels. Far from presenting solarity as a utopian solution to the climate crisis, it critically examines the ambiguous potentials of solarities: plural, situated, and often contradictory. Here, a diverse collective of activists, scholars, and practitioners critically engage a wide range of relationships and orientations to the sun. They consider the material and infrastructural dimensions of solar power, the decolonial and feminist promises of decentralized energy, solarian relations with more-than-human kin, and the problem of oppressive and weaponized solarities. Solarities imagines-and demands- possibilities for energy justice in this transition.
Gender, class, and culture merge in the lived experiences of women on strike in the South. This book examines women unionists' life histories through the lens of narrative analysis, interpreting their multiple perspectives as four coherent discourse communities: social activists, union feminists, women martyrs, and women whose identities are defined by their work in non-traditional fields.
Crucial Questions About the Future presents readers concerned about the long-range future and their place in it with a series of tough but necessary questions and, refreshingly, offers no pat answers. Instead, what is offered is a structured and reason-bound exploration of the complexities of modern life with which the reader, or the future-studies inclined academic, can provide his own answers to these eternal and critical questions. Contents: The Future of Human Civilization; What Is Most Important of All?; Why Do We Act In Ways That Hurt Our Future?; What Will Our Actual Future Turn Out To Be?; How Can We Achieve a Satisfactory Future?; Preventing the Worst Catastrophes; Intelligent Life in the Universe: What Role Will It Play In Our Future?; From Which Aspects of Reality Can We Gain Meaning and Purpose?; How Can Each Person Contribute?
The Future of the City Centre: Global Perspectives debates future directions. It looks beyond the post-industrial, post-commercial, and post-retail city centres to examine differing visions of the future form and function of the urban core. This theme and the related sub-topics will assist the development of future city models and help to contextualise urban change. The in-depth research covers not only urban form and the re-use of the built heritage but also the provision for cultural events and different forms of entertainment that will offer vitality, together with visitors and responsible tourism. City authorities are starting to realise that structural changes are happening in city centres, as their influence is declining, and therefore new forms of governance will be needed. The book is based on an international research network hosting four symposia over 24 months. They took place in four cities in four different continents to encompass a world view of developed and developing countries. This book offers theoretical and practical perspectives from leading thinkers, academics, and practitioners, drawing on thematic issues explored across four international cities: Newcastle, UK; Newcastle, Australia; Pretoria-Tshwane, South Africa; and Joao Pessoa, Brazil. It draws on a wider set of global examples to reveal the shared issues and pressures being brought to bear on city centres and the diversity of responses being undertaken to ensure their long-term future. The book includes illustrations from cities around the world, and it is directed at academics, students, and professionals in architecture, planning, urban design, the built environment, geography, economics, sociology, and cultural studies.
'In this book, Klaus Schwab and the World Economic Forum contribute significantly to one of the most important issues of our time - how to move forward in the Fourth Industrial Revolution' Jack Ma, Executive Chairman, Alibaba Group Holding, People's Republic of China 'It's no secret that technologies are reshaping the world's economies and societies. To manage the risks and spread the benefits, we have to act now, and in the interest of stakeholders everywhere' Andrew McAfee, Co-Founder, MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy, MIT, USA We are on the brink of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. And this one will be unlike any other in human history. Characterized by new technologies fusing the physical, digital and biological worlds, the Fourth Industrial Revolution will impact all disciplines, economies and industries - and it will do so at an unprecedented rate. World Economic Forum data predicts that by 2025 we will see: commercial use of nanomaterials 200 times stronger than steel and a million times thinner than human hair; the first transplant of a 3D-printed liver; 10% of all cars on US roads being driverless; and much more besides. In The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Schwab outlines the key technologies driving this revolution, discusses the major impacts on governments, businesses, civil society and individuals, and offers bold ideas for what can be done to shape a better future for all. 'The technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution are extraordinary. Leadership has to be equally extraordinary to manage the complexities of systemic change' Eric Schmidt, Technical Advisor, Alphabet, USA
This book provides an updated, concise summary of forecasting air travel demand methodology. It looks at air travel demand forecasting research and attempts to outline the whole intellectual landscape of demand forecasting. It helps readers to understand the basic idea of TEI@I methodology used in forecasting air travel demand and how it is used in developing air travel demand forecasting methods. The book also discusses what to do when facing different forecasting problems making it a useful reference for business practitioners in the industry.
The bad news is that our civilisation is collapsing. The good news is that you are already helping create a new and better one. The Ocean in a Drop follows the quest of Roz Savage, a frustrated environmentalist and ocean adventurer, to find out why her own endeavours and the environmental movement more generally have failed to achieve change of the necessary scope, scale and speed. Her journey takes her from the environment through economics and politics into patriarchy and a global culture of domination - the domination of rich over poor, strong over weak, humanity over nature. She examines the tragic psychological flaws in the way we think, and the apparent inevitability of civilisational collapse, and deduces that our best hope is to transcend the current trap of runaway materialism. But how? Exploring cutting-edge theories on the nature of reality and the relationship between matter and consciousness, she peels back the veils of our shared delusions to arrive at a new narrative about what it means to be human in the twenty-first century. She paints a bold, exciting vision of a future in which people and planet thrive.
The COVID-19 pandemic has presented an important case study, on a global scale, of how democracy works - and fails to work - today. From leadership to citizenship, from due process to checks and balances, from globalization to misinformation, from solidarity within and across borders to the role of expertise, key democratic concepts both old and new are now being put to the test. The future of democracy around the world is at issue as today's governments manage their responses to the pandemic. Bringing together some of today's most creative thinkers, these essays offer a variety of inquiries into democracy during the global pandemic with a view to imagining post-crisis political conditions. Representing different regions and disciplines, including law, politics, philosophy, religion, and sociology, eighteen voices offer different outlooks - optimistic and pessimistic - on the future.
In the future, how many identities will you have? How many do you want? Digital technology is causing us to think differently about who we are and who we could become, but with the right knowledge we can turn this incredible capacity to our advantage. 'Who am I?' is one of the most fundamental questions of all. But it is becoming increasingly difficult to answer as technology enables us to negotiate and create many different versions of ourselves. In our digital, data-driven world, Facebook gets a say in verifying who we are, science can alter our biology, and advances in AI are revolutionizing not only how we interact online but with the physical world around us. Understanding and defining ourselves is becoming confusing but, as this fascinating book argues, it is possible to embrace this new era of transformation while preserving our autonomy. In The Future of You, Professional futurist Tracey Follows shows how our personal freedoms and potential will be transformed over the coming decades. From health passports, bio-hacking and relationships with machines to mind clones, digital voting and virtual legacies beyond the grave, we need to understand these vital issues today so that we might design the future of our identity tomorrow. 'This fascinating book explores the way that emerging technologies such as AI might affect the nature of personal identity and personhood. It paints an intriguing, thought-provoking, and occasionally disturbing picture.' Michael Wooldridge, author of The Road to Conscious
Gender, class, and culture merge in the lived experiences of women on strike in the South. This book examines women unionistsa (TM) life histories through the lens of narrative analysis, interpreting their multiple perspectives as four coherent discourse communities: social activists, union feminists, women martyrs, and women whose identities are defined by their work in non-traditional fields.
COVID-19 wrecked the plans and strategies of organizations everywhere, while injecting greater uncertainty into a world already undergoing disruptive social and technological change. Strategic Foresight can help us navigate through the recovery and beyond. Strategic Foresight is a systematic, intelligence-gathering, vision-building process that helps us manage uncertainty by discerning plausible alternative futures and applying the insights to present-day planning. It is ideally suited to a world upended by the pandemic and rapid transformations in the way we live, work and interact. Using approachable language and a multitude of examples, Learning from Tomorrow shows how Strategic Foresight broadens our perspectives, exposes opportunities and risks, and opens our minds to innovation in a post-pandemic world. It is essential reading for organizational leaders and those responsible for developing strategies, scenarios, policies and plans.
The future obviously matters to us. It is, after all, where we'll be spending the rest of our lives. We need some degree of foresight if we are to make effective plans for managing our affairs. Much that we would like to know in advance cannot be predicted. But a vast amount of successful prediction is nonetheless possible, especially in the context of applied sciences such as medicine, meteorology, and engineering. This book examines our prospects for finding out about the future in advance. It addresses questions such as why prediction is possible in some areas and not others; what sorts of methods and resources make successful prediction possible; and what obstacles limit the predictive venture. Nicholas Rescher develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems. Predicting the future considers the anthropological and historical background of the predictive enterprise. It also examines the conceptual, epistemic, and ontological principles that set the stage for predictive efforts. In short, Rescher explores the basic features of the predictive situation and considers their broader implications in science, in philosophy, and in the management of our daily affairs.
Social Impact Assessment (SIA) is the process of analysing and managing the intended and unintended consequences on the human environment of planned interventions (policies, programmes, plans, projects) so as to bring about a more sustainable and equitable biophysical and human environment. This important Handbook presents an indispensable overview of the range of new methods and of the conceptual advances in SIA. Recent increased attention to social considerations has led to substantial development in the techniques useful to, and the thinking in, SIA. A distinguished group of contributors provides an up-to-date and comprehensive account of the cutting-edge in SIA development. This Handbook outlines a new understanding and definition of SIA and, as such, will be an invaluable reference tool for both practitioners and scholars at different levels working in the fields of SIA and environmental studies (including both impact assessment and management).
"The Future Factor" offers an inspiring, optimistic view of the human future. Sociologist Michael G. Zey shows how breathtaking innovations in fields such as biotechnology, computing, robotics, medicine, energy development and space technology are catapulting global society into a new era of abundance and prosperity. As the third millennium begins, technological breakthroughs provide unprecedented opportunities for growth, profitability and organizational and personal reinvention. However, to stay ahead of the curve and anticipate future developments before competitors and peers do, leaders, companies and individuals must be equipped with the capacity to make informed decisions. In "The Future Factor," Zey provides the sophisticated cutting-edge knowledge needed to achieve competitive advantage that individuals require to make career and life choices. Zey paints a big picture of new forces--biogenesis, cybergenesis, species coalescence and dominionization--that are subtly impacting society and the global economy and changing forever the way we live. Among the subjects explored in this wide-ranging book are: the role cybergenisis will play in making humans healthier; the universal communication network based on the Internet and virtual reality; biogenesis, gene therapy and decoding the human genome; "next generation" robots, smart machines and their impact on economic growth; the colonization of space and the advent of "space tourism"; fusion-based energy and its effect on the environment and global economy; global transportation and a worldwide superhighway; and biotechnological breakthroughs in agriculture and food production.
This book offers a critical account of the historical evolution of tourism through the identification and discussion of key turning points. Based on these considerations, future turning points are identified and evaluated. The volume provides a continuum between the past and future of tourism. Its central themes are the globalisation of tourism; the development of destinations; the importance of mobility and transport; the development of the modern hotel; the diversification of niche tourism and the conceptualisation of the past and future of tourism using the evolutionary paradigm in future studies. The core findings of the book provide the first perspective on how the history of tourism will shape its future.
Once upon a time, the world was neatly divided into prosperous and backward economies. Babies were plentiful, workers outnumbered retirees and people aspiring towards the middle class yearned to own homes and cars. Companies didn't need to see any further than Europe and the United States to do well. We grew up learning how to 'play the game', and we expected the rules to remain the same throughout our lifetimes. That world - and those rules - are over. By 2030, a new reality will take hold, and before you know it there will be more grandparents than grandchildren. The global economy will be driven by the non-Western consumer for the first time in modern history and there will be more global wealth owned by women than men. There will be more robots than workers and more currencies than countries. All these trends, currently underway, will change everything you know about culture, the economy and the world. 2030 is both a remarkable guide to the coming changes and an exercise in the power of 'lateral thinking', thereby revolutionising the way you think about cataclysmic change and its consequences.
How can dystopian futures help provide the motivation to change the ways we operate day to day? Futures Beyond Dystopia takes the view that the dominant trends in the world suggest a long-term decline into unliveable Dystopian futures. The human prospect is therefore very challenging, yet the perception of dangers and dysfunctions is the first step towards dealing with them. The motivation to avoid future dangers is matched by the human need to create plans and move forward. These twin motivations can be very powerful and help to stimulate the fields of Futures Studies and Applied Foresight. This analysis of current Futures practice is split into six sections: * The Case Against Hegemony * Expanding and Deepening a Futures Frame * Futures Studies and the Integral Agenda * Social Learning through Applied Foresight * Strategies and Outlooks * The Dialectic of Foresight and Experience. This fascinating book will stimulate anyone involved in Futures work around the world and will challenge practitioners and others to re-examine many of their assumptions, methodologies and practices.
Why do representatives of different religious traditions find the transhumanist vision of the future not only theologically compatible but even inspiring? Transhumanism is a global movement seeking radical human enhancement. The trans in transhumanism marks the transition from the present stage in human evolution into the future, namely, post-human existence. Containing chapters written by adherents to a variety of religious traditions, Religious Transhumanism and Its Critics provides first-hand testimony to the value of the transhumanist vision perceived by the religious mind. In addition, the contributors critique both secular and religious transhumanism in light of realistic science and commitment to social justice.
Where is the world heading at the turn of the twenty-first century?
Towards a desolate landscape of disintegrating societies or towards
the construction of new institutions to mitigate violence, reduce
poverty and promote peace in a rapidly changing global context? Do
ideas of globalization reflect reality and how far are they either
new or helpful? Can trends identified in the near and distant past
be helpfully extrapolated to predict the future and to understand
the present? |
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