OUT NOW: the new book from the bestselling authors and hosts of the wildy popular 'The Skeptics Guide to the Universe' __________ Our predictions of the future are a wild fantasy, inextricably linked to our present hopes and fears, biases and ignorance. Whether they be the outlandish leaps predicted in the 1920s, like multi-purpose utility belts with climate control capabilities and planes the size of luxury cruise ships, or the forecasts of the '60s, which didn't anticipate the sexual revolution or women's liberation, the path to the present is littered with failed predictions and incorrect estimations. The best we can do is try to absorb from futurism's checkered past, perhaps learning to do a little better. In The Skeptics' Guide To The Future, Steven Novella and his co-authors build upon the work of futurists of the past by examining what they got right, what they got wrong, and how they came to those conclusions. By exploring the pitfalls of each era, they give their own speculations about the distant future, transformed by unbelievable technology ranging from genetic manipulation to artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Applying their trademark skepticism, they carefully extrapolate upon each scientific development, leaving no stone unturned as they lay out a vision for the future of tomorrow. __________

A powerful investigation into the chances for humanity's future from the author of the bestseller The World Without Us.
In his bestselling book The World Without Us, Alan Weisman considered how the Earth could heal and even refill empty niches if relieved of humanity's constant pressures. Behind that groundbreaking thought experiment was his hope that we would be inspired to find a way to add humans back to this vision of a restored, healthy planet-only in harmony, not mortal combat, with the rest of nature.
But with a million more of us every 4 1/2 days on a planet that's not getting any bigger, and with our exhaust overheating the atmosphere and altering the chemistry of the oceans, prospects for a sustainable human future seem ever more in doubt. For this long awaited follow-up book, Weisman traveled to more than 20 countries to ask what experts agreed were probably the most important questions on Earth--and also the hardest: How many humans can the planet hold without capsizing? How robust must the Earth's ecosystem be to assure our continued existence? Can we know which other species are essential to our survival? And, how might we actually arrive at a stable, optimum population, and design an economy to allow genuine prosperity without endless growth?
Weisman visits an extraordinary range of the world's cultures, religions, nationalities, tribes, and political systems to learn what in their beliefs, histories, liturgies, or current circumstances might suggest that sometimes it's in their own best interest to limit their growth. The result is a landmark work of reporting: devastating, urgent, and, ultimately, deeply hopeful.
By vividly detailing the burgeoning effects of our cumulative presence, Countdown reveals what may be the fastest, most acceptable, practical, and affordable way of returning our planet and our presence on it to balance. Weisman again shows that he is one of the most provocative journalists at work today, with a book whose message is so compelling that it will change how we see our lives and our destiny.

How do you predict something that has never happened before? There's a useful calculation being employed by Wall Street, Silicon Valley and maths professors all over the world, and it predicts that the human species will become extinct in 760 years. Unfortunately, there is disagreement over how to apply the formula, and some argue that we might only have twenty years left. Originally devised by British clergyman Thomas Bayes, the theorem languished in obscurity for two hundred years before being resurrected as the lynchpin of the digital economy. With brief detours into archaeology, philology, and overdue library books, William Poundstone explains how we can use it to predict pretty much anything. What is the chance that there are multiple universes? How long will Hamilton run? Will the US stock market continue to perform as well this century as it has for the last hundred years? And are we really all doomed?

Assessing the future is vital in informing public policy decisions. One of the most widespread approaches is the development of scenarios, which are alternative hypothetical futures. Research has indicated, however, that the reality of how professionals go about employing scenarios is often starkly at odds with the theory - a finding that has important ramifications for how the resulting images of the future should be interpreted. It also shows the need for rewriting and updating theory. This book, based on an intensive five year study of how experts actually go about assessing the future, provides a groundbreaking examination of foresighting in action. Obtained via ethnographic techniques, the results lay bare for the first time the real processes by which scenarios are made. It is also the first book to examine foresighting for public policy, which is so often overlooked in favour of business practice. From handling of discontinuity to historical determinism, the analysis reveals and explains why foresight is difficult and what the major pitfalls are. Each chapter ends with a toolkit of recommendations for practice. The book aims to help readers to reflect on their own practices of public-oriented foresight and thus to foster a deeper understanding of the key principles and challenges. Ultimately, this will lead to better informed decision making.

What are some of the most distinctive features of the crisis characterising the social sciences learning today? Can a crisis of this deep-rooted and extremely wide-ranging nature be delimitated to a few specific areas? Can the social sciences diverse dilemmas be reduced to the feature of crisis alone? This book argues that the social sciences are in a deep state of crisis. Kleber Ghimire analyzes how some of the basic problems began from the very inception: uncritical use of empiricism and experimentation methods emulating the natural sciences, internal fragmentation of knowledge along narrow disciplinary lines, and near-exclusive emphasis on the experience of industrial societies. As these difficulties persist, more recent evolutions have brought additional troubles. With a focus on Europe, North America and Asia, Kleber Ghimire examines the effects of university reforms that give prominence to expertise-oriented research, economic rationality and occupational skill development, leading to a widespread marginalisation of the social and human studies. The book ends with a call to reflect upon opening a new horizon for these fields of learning, especially by inventing a new era of social sciences pedagogy, leaving natural sciences for humanities and recognizing the value of culture as a crucial reservoir of social knowledge.

Bea meets Aaron. He's intelligent, handsome, makes her laugh and, most importantly, has a high rating on his genetic profile. What's not to like? Char is on the brink of landing her dream job and has big plans to start a family - but her blood rating threatens it all. In a world where future happiness depends on a single, inescapable blood test - which dictates everything from credit rating to dating prospects - how far will people go to beat the system and let nature take its course? The Phlebotomist questions the value we place on one another, whether knowledge really is power, and if it's truly possible for love to conquer all.

Immortal Passage: Philosophical Speculations on Posthuman Evolution is Asher Seidel's speculative account of posthuman evolution. Seidel begins with the transitional period in which humans begin to live for significantly extended periods, then moves to the closer future in which, having transitioned, the now posthumans enjoy enhanced cognitive and creative powers. Finally, Seidel enters the distant future, where our descendants might possess abilities beyond the limits of what is presently conceivable. Seidel's speculations engage various philosophical problems. Seidel seeks an ethical theory that co-develops with a deeper scientific understanding of ourselves. He also examines the metaphysical and epistemological presuppositions of his recommendation for human to posthuman transitioning, including mind-body dualism vigorous enough to allow for full-bodied consciousness, but insufficient for freewill; perceptual direct realism; and self-identity. As the speculations reach further into the future, various socio-political questions regarding the difficulties of transitioning are explored. Speculated possibilities of pain-free living, cooperative relationships, nonbiological selfhood, and radically enhanced cognitive abilities, are examined in depth in this mind-bending ride into the future of humankind.

Is another future possible? So called 'late modernity' is marked by the escalating rise in and proliferation of uncertainties and unforeseen events brought about by the interplay between and patterning of social-natural, techno-scientific and political-economic developments. The future has indeed become problematic. The question of how heterogeneous actors engage futures, what intellectual and practical strategies they put into play and what the implications of such strategies are, have become key concerns of recent social and cultural research addressing a diverse range of fields of practice and experience. Exploring questions of speculation, possibilities and futures in contemporary societies, Speculative Research responds to the pressing need to not only critically account for the role of calculative logics and rationalities in managing societal futures, but to develop alternative approaches and sensibilities that take futures seriously as possibilities and that demand new habits and practices of attention, invention, and experimentation.

Contents:
Image narrative. Preface 1. Introduction - The form of the future. Part 1. Urban conditions 2. The Form of the Future 3. Capitalism and the City 4. Exit 5. Reading the City in a Global Digital Age 6. Playing with Information 7. The Experienced City 8. Urban Footnotes. Part 2. NEXT 9. NEXT Millennium Tour 10. The Influence of Globalization. Part 3. From Cities Made to Cities Emergent 11. From Randstad to Deltametropolis 12. Remaking Johannesburg 13. Marketed Sydney 14. Kuala Lumpur 15. The Voids of Berlin 16. Mumbai 17. Los Angeles 18. Amsterdam 19. Always Somewhere Else, Local Navigation in Doula 20. Beldgrade.

In a unique volume, Contested Futures brings together a group of scholars to examine the relationships between social action and the future. Rather than speculating upon what the future might bring, the volume interrogates the metaphors and practices through which the future is mobilized as an object of present day action and agency. The book shifts the analytical gaze from looking into the future to looking at the future as a sociological phenomenon in its own right. Futures are thus contested in as much as they register differences of interest, time frame or organizational and political form. Contestation is also evident in the ascendancy of certain discourses, languages and metaphors which foreclose some futures whilst facilitating others. But futures are far from being simply linguistic abstractions, and in fact can often be seen to harden into material entrenchment as expectations become scripted into 'path dependency' and 'lock in'. Contested Futures is an invaluable analysis for both academics and policy actors seeking a better understanding of the ubiquity of futures-discourse in the context of today's uncertainties.

**SUNDAY TIMES AND THE NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER** 'An epoch-defining book' Matt Haig 'If you read just one work of non-fiction this year, it should probably be this' David Sexton, Evening Standard Selected as a Book of the Year 2019 by the Sunday Times, Spectator and New Statesman A Waterstones Paperback of the Year and shortlisted for the Foyles Book of the Year 2019 Longlisted for the PEN / E.O. Wilson Literary Science Writing Award It is worse, much worse, than you think. The slowness of climate change is a fairy tale, perhaps as pernicious as the one that says it isn't happening at all, and if your anxiety about it is dominated by fears of sea-level rise, you are barely scratching the surface of what terrors are possible, even within the lifetime of a teenager today. Over the past decades, the term "Anthropocene" has climbed into the popular imagination - a name given to the geologic era we live in now, one defined by human intervention in the life of the planet. But however sanguine you might be about the proposition that we have ravaged the natural world, which we surely have, it is another thing entirely to consider the possibility that we have only provoked it, engineering first in ignorance and then in denial a climate system that will now go to war with us for many centuries, perhaps until it destroys us. In the meantime, it will remake us, transforming every aspect of the way we live-the planet no longer nurturing a dream of abundance, but a living nightmare.

For many decades the international community has endeavoured to eliminate extreme poverty; however, it is estimated that around 800 million people still live below the international poverty line of $1.90 a day. This book looks this global problem and presents applicable solutions to show that we can eliminate poverty today and meet the challenge of the UN Sustainable Development Goal 1. The first part of the book discusses what poverty and development are and asks whether the right to development is an international commitment to eradicate poverty. The second part looks at the strategy of the Sustainable Development Goals, and the concept of happiness for all people in the world. It examines the proposition of SDG1, evaluates the first actions taken in this area, and presents the best practice of recent SDG implementation. The final part considers several proposals and presents suggestions on how to make global action more effective. Concise Guides to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals comprises 17 short books, each examining one of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The series provides an integrated assessment of the SDGs from economic, legal, social, environmental and cultural perspectives.

Urban expert John Rossant and business journalist Stephen Baker look beyond the false promises of the past to examine the real future of transportation and the repercussions for the world's cities, the global economy, the environment, and our individual lives. Human mobility, dominated for a century by cars and trucks, is facing a dramatic transformation. Over the next decade, new networked devices, from electric bikes to fleets of autonomous cars, will change the way we move. They will also disrupt major industries, from energy to cars, give birth to new mobility giants, and lead to a redesign of our cities. For Rossant and Baker, this represents the advance of the Information Revolution into the physical world. This will raise troubling questions about surveillance, privacy, the dangers from hackers and the loss of jobs. But it also promises startling efficiencies, which could turn our cities green and, perhaps, save our planet. In an engaging, deeply reported book, the authors travel to mobility hotspots, from Helsinki to Shanghai, to scout out this future. And they visit the companies putting it together. One, Divergent3d, is devising a system to manufacture cars with robots and 3D printers. PonyAI, a Chinese-Silicon Valley startup, builds autonomous software that perceives potholes, oncoming trucks, and wayward pedestrians, and guides the vehicle around them. Voom, an Airbus subsidiary, is racing with dozens of others to operate fleets of air taxis that fly by themselves. Hop, Skip, Go is about us: billions of people on the move. Underlying each stage of mobility, from foot to horse to cars and jets, are the mathematics of three fundamental variables: time, space and money. We measure each trip we take, whether to Kuala Lumpur or the corner drugstore. As the authors make clear, the coming mobility revolution will be no different. As they unveil the future, the authors explore how these changes might revamp our conception of global geography, the hours in our days, and where in the world we might be able to go.

"Epiphany Z" is Futurist Thomas Frey's dynamic approach to envisioning, comprehending, and ultimately thriving in the radically different futures emerging around us at the speed of light. Frey's unparalleled ability to detect emerging trends from the smallest of clues gives him an edge on other futurists. Now he's sharing that edge with you. What are tomorrow's hottest industries? What huge industries of today are doomed to extinction? How will our lives be changed by advancements in robotics, in drone technology, in manufacturing and transportation? How can education cope with the explosive new world of enhanced information, hyperactive business environments, cultural shifts that would have been unimaginable as recently as yesterday? Who will be the masters of tomorrow's universe and who will be left behind? Above all, how can you not only protect yourself from the most disruptive aspects of the changes sweeping your way---how can you become one of the masters of those changes? Distilling decades of research, experience, and proven success in correctly identifying and accurately extrapolating today's trends and innovations into tomorrow's realities, Thomas Frey gives you an advance ticket to the most explosive period of change in all of human history. Those changes are taking place now. Thomas Frey shows where they will be taking all of us tomorrow. "EPIPHANY Z" your roadmap to the future.

This collection of original and classic essays examines the contributions that female authors have made to the short story. The introductory chapter discusses why genre critics have ignored works by women and why feminist scholars have ignored the short-story genre. Subsequent chapters discuss early stories by such authors as Lydia Maria Child and Rose Terry Cooke. Other chapters are devoted to the influences (race, class, sexual orientation, education) that have shaped women's short fiction through the years. Women's special stylistic, formal, and thematic concerns are also discussed in this study. The final essay addresses the ways our contemporary creative-writing classes are stifling the voices of emerging young female authors. The collection includes an extensive five-part bibliography.

"This Will Change Everything offers seemingly radical but actually feasible ideas with the potential to change the world."-Jared Diamond, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of Guns, Germs, and Steel Editor John Brockman continues in the same vein as his popular compilations What Are You Optimistic About and What Have You Changed Your Mind About with This Will Change Everything. Brockman asks 150 intellectual superstars "what game-changing scientific ideas and developments do you expect to live to see?" Their fascinating responses are collected here, from bestselling author of Atonement Ian McEwan to Nobel Prize-winning physicist Frank Wilczek to electronic music pioneer Brian Eno to writer, actor, director, and activist Alan Alda.

Part I of "Mind Set!" lays out the Mindsets Naisbitt uses to help you see the future - to process information and experience and put those insights to use in decision making. Among these Mindsets are: Beware of the trap of the hype of change; The future is embedded in the present; Sequence is the enemy of making connections; Don't get so far ahead of the parade that they don't know you are in it; Change comes from a confluence of changing values and economic necessity; and, Don't add unless you subtract.In Part II of the book, Naisbitt lays out five Pictures of the Future that outline major global shifts that must inform anyone's thinking. The reader applies the precepts of the Attitude Mindsets to mine the insights from these portraits that include: Economics - From Nation State to Economic Domain; Europe - Metamorphosis to Theme Park; The Next Big Thing - there is no next big thing; Culture - a visual culture is taking over the world; and, China - Sports will dominate long before its economy is dominant.

Lim Siong Guan, Singapore's former Head of Civil Service (1999-2005) was the Institute of Policy Studies' 4th S R Nathan Fellow for the Study of Singapore. This book contains edited versions of the three IPS-Nathan Lectures he gave between September and November 2017, and highlights of his dialogue with the audience.Lim addresses the question, 'Can Singapore Fall?', by examining the state of Singapore today and proposing what Singapore and Singaporeans must do in order to prevent economic and social decline. Taking inspiration from Sir John Glubb's essay, The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival, Lim urges Singaporeans to counter decline by observing the 'three legs of honour': Trust, Diversity, and Excellence. These include becoming a gracious society and building up a culture of innovation, excellence and outwardness.Lim also reminds us that cultural change takes a generational effort to effect; for change to happen, Singaporeans must thus act with urgency and act now for the well-being of future generations.The IPS-Nathan Lectures series was launched in 2014 as part of the S R Nathan Fellowship for the Study of Singapore. The S R Nathan Fellow delivers a series of lectures during their term to advance public understanding and discussion of issues of critical national interest.

Seymour W. Itzkoff is one of the world's leading intelligence researchers. His exciting new book Our Unfinished Biological Revolution offers a bold and highly original new study on the evolution of human intelligence from the origin of life to our times. With the help of evolutionary theory, Itzkoff explains the nature of human intelligence as we know it today. Most importantly, it demonstrates that evolution led to the rise of what intelligence researchers call the general intelligence factor: the human ability to plan ahead and solve problems for which natural selection did not prepare us. The book also argues that humans vary in intelligence (as with all traits shaped by Darwinian evolution), and hence in their propensity to think abstractly and anticipate long-term consequences of their actions. Our Unfinished Biological Revolution explores the social implications of these two factors as they unfold in modern technological societies, in which intelligence plays an increasingly important role. Finally, the book argues that human intelligence may offer our best hope in solving the daunting problems of the present era?including population growth, the exhaustion of natural resources, and the rise of simplistic and devastating ideologies.

This book discusses how to build optimization tools able to generate better future studies. It aims at showing how these tools can be used to develop an adaptive learning environment that can be used for decision making in the presence of uncertainties. The book starts with existing fuzzy techniques and multicriteria decision making approaches and shows how to combine them in more effective tools to model future events and take therefore better decisions. The first part of the book is dedicated to the theories behind fuzzy optimization and fuzzy cognitive map, while the second part presents new approaches developed by the authors with their practical application to trend impact analysis, scenario planning and strategic formulation. The book is aimed at two groups of readers, interested in linking the future studies with artificial intelligence. The first group includes social scientists seeking for improved methods for strategic prospective. The second group includes computer scientists and engineers seeking for new applications and current developments of Soft Computing methods for forecasting in social science, but not limited to this.