"An ambitious, intelligent, and very readable guide to understanding our present and our future." —Harry Beckwith, Principal, Beckwith Advertising and Marketing and author of Selling the Invisible

No one can foretell the future. Or can they? There are many who purport to —and they are making a fortune. From meteorologists who give us our daily weather forecasts to investment advisers who project tomorrow's hottest stock, these and numerous other prognosticating professionals are part of a multibillion-dollar industry that's growing every day. No longer merely fortunetellers, they are fortune sellers, offering us a commodity we're more than eager to buy: the future.

In this piercing and provocative exposé, William Sherden, a seasoned consultant and expert on business forecasting, casts an unblinking eye on the booming business of predicting the future, from its major players to the ultimate validity and value of the information they proffer. Debunking false prophecy and analyzing assertions of forecasting skill, Sherden separates fact from fallacy to show us not only how best to use the forecasts we're given, but how to "select the nuggets of valuable future advice from amongst the $200 billion worth of mostly erroneous future predictions put forth each year."

The Fortune Sellers contains in-depth explorations of the seven most prevalent forecasting professions today —meteorology, economics, investments, technology assessment, demography, futurology, and organizational planning. As Sherden uncovers their historical roots and traces their track records, he deftly reveals just how accurate —or inaccurate —their predictions really are. Fascinating historical facts, scores of actual examples, and a wealth of eye-opening statistics illuminate the difference between reliable real-world information and spurious guesswork. In The Fortune Sellers, you'll discover how:

• Anyone who is counting on a weather forecast more than a day or two in advance might just as well flip a coin
• Economics earned its nickname —the "dismal science" —and why it sticks
• Profits from prediction work on Wall Street
• Academia, business, and the media feed our fascination with science fact and fiction and future technology
• Futurists —predictors of societal change —use the infirm foundations of social science to predict everything from utopia to techno-totalitarianism
• Prognosticators failed to predict many milestone events, including the stock market crash of 1929, the recession of the 1980s, and the fall of East Berlin.

An intriguing and utterly fascinating exploration of the methods and the madness of today's growing number of future "experts," The Fortune Sellers is not to be missed —and that's no speculation.

This book is a collection of speeches presented at Singapore Perspectives 2019 by current players in international relations and leading academics and opinion shapers on how the post-Cold War world order, with emphasis on the relations between the United States and China, will affect small states like Singapore and countries in Southeast Asia - at local, national, and regional levels.It features speeches by prominent personalities, such as Singapore Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, former Singapore Foreign Minister Mr George Yeo, and former Indonesian Foreign Minister Dr Marty Natalegawa. Each speaker presents a fresh perspective on important developments in the world today.

Indigenous Sustainable Wisdom: First Nation Know-how for Global Flourishing's contributors describe ways of being in the world that reflect a worldview that guided humanity for 99% of human history: They describe the practical traditional wisdom that stems from Nature-based relational cultures that were or are guided by this worldview. Such cultures did not cause the kinds of anti-Nature and de-humanizing or inequitable policies and practices that now pervade our world. Far from romanticizing Indigenous histories, Indigenous Sustainable Wisdom offers facts about how human beings, with our potential for good and evil behaviors, can live in relative harmony again. Contributions cover views from anthropology, psychology, sociology, leadership, native science, native history, and native art.

A popular cliche in contemporary public discourse holds that we live in a time of increasing uncertainty; that the next catastrophe is perpetually imminent and yet increasingly beyond our capacity to foresee. The future, in short, is becoming much more difficult to control. One consequence of this increasingly widespread understanding of the future is that societies have turned to anticipatory governance strategies based on such concepts as risk management, the precautionary principle, and pre-emption to manage human affairs. This book takes an in-depth look at this trend by using the example of the 'pre-emptive security' strategies deployed in the post-9/11 War on Terror to develop a critical understanding of how the proliferation of such anticipatory governance strategies affects the way political power is organized and exercised. The book also makes a wider case for taking issues of time and the future more seriously in the study of contemporary global politics in particular and the social world more generally.

Two defense experts explore the collision of war, politics, and social media, where the most important battles are now only a click away. Through the weaponization of social media, the internet is changing war and politics, just as war and politics are changing the internet. Terrorists livestream their attacks, "Twitter wars" produce real-world casualties, and viral misinformation alters not just the result of battles, but the very fate of nations. The result is that war, tech, and politics have blurred into a new kind of battlespace that plays out on our smartphones. P. W. Singer and Emerson Brooking tackle the mind-bending questions that arise when war goes online and the online world goes to war. They explore how ISIS copies the Instagram tactics of Taylor Swift, a former World of Warcraft addict foils war crimes thousands of miles away, internet trolls shape elections, and China uses a smartphone app to police the thoughts of 1.4 billion citizens. What can be kept secret in a world of networks? Does social media expose the truth or bury it? And what role do ordinary people now play in international conflicts? Delving into the web's darkest corners, we meet the unexpected warriors of social media, such as the rapper turned jihadist PR czar and the Russian hipsters who wage unceasing infowars against the West. Finally, looking to the crucial years ahead, LikeWar outlines a radical new paradigm for understanding and defending against the unprecedented threats of our networked world.

This book documents the early lives of almost 19,000 children born in the UK at the start of the 21st century, and their families. It is the first time that analysis of data from the hugely important Millennium Cohort Study, a longitudinal study following the progress of the children and their families, has been drawn together in a single volume. The unrivalled data is examined here to address important policy and scientific issues. The book is also the first in a series of publications that will report on the children's lives at different stages of their development. The fascinating range of findings presented here is strengthened by comparison with data on earlier generations. This has enabled the authors to assess the impact of a wide range of policies on the life courses of a new generation, including policies on child health, parenting, childcare and social exclusion. Babies of the new millennium (title tbc) is the product of an exciting collaboration from experts across a wide range of health and social science fields. The result is a unique and authoritative analysis of family life and early childhood in the UK that cuts across old disciplinary boundaries. It is essential reading for academics, students and researchers in the health and social sciences. It will also be a useful resource for policy makers and practitioners who are interested in childhood, child development, child poverty, child health, childcare and family policy.

In his long-awaited and provocative book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future-offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era-with changes in store.

Countries, cities, and companies are investing in smart cities and digital economies.

• How may we recapture the passion of past human wonders?
• What will be the implications of new, "free agent" working patterns?
• Why will emerging "metamedia" replace the multimedia of the Present Age?
• Can nation states survive in the face of increasing globalization?
• And what will be the characteristics of successful Future Organizations?

'David Christian's approach to understanding history can help all of us learn to prepare for the future' - Bill Gates A user's guide to the future: from the algorithms in DNA to why time is like a cocktail glass, interstellar migrations, transhumanism, the fate of the galaxy, and the last black hole... Every second of our lives - whether we're looking both ways before crossing the street, celebrating the birth of a baby, or moving to a new city - we must cope with an unknowable future. How do we do this? And how do we, like most living organisms, manage this impossible challenge quite well (at least most of the time)? David Christian, historian and bestselling author of Origin Story, is renowned for pioneering the emerging discipline of Big History, which surveys the whole of the past. But with Future Stories, he casts his sharp analytical eye forward, offering an introduction to the strange world of the future, and a guide to what we think we know about it at all scales, from the predictive mechanisms of single-celled organisms and tomato plants to the merging of colossal galaxies billions of years from now. Drawing together science, history and philosophy from a huge range of places and times, Christian explores how we prepare for uncertain futures, including the future of human evolution, artificial intelligence, interstellar travel, and more. By linking the study of the past much more closely to the study of the future, we can begin to imagine what the world will look like in the next hundred years and consider solutions to the biggest challenges facing us all.

Funny, clear, deep, and right on target. Siegfried] lets us get a handle on ideas that are essential for understanding the evolving world.
-K. C. Cole, author of The Universe and the Teacup
""An eager, ambitious book. A stimulating, accessible introduction to scientific theory.""
-Dallas Morning News
An award-winning journalist surveys the horizon of a new revolution in science
Everything in the universe, from the molecules in our bodies to the heart of a black hole, is made up of bits of information. This is the radical idea at the center of the new physics of information, and it is leading to exciting breakthroughs in a vast range of science, including the invention of a new kind of quantum computer, millions of times faster than any computer today. Acclaimed science writer Tom Siegfried offers a lively introduction to the leading scientists and ideas responsible for this exciting new scientific paradigm.

**SUNDAY TIMES AND THE NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER** 'An epoch-defining book' Matt Haig 'If you read just one work of non-fiction this year, it should probably be this' David Sexton, Evening Standard Selected as a Book of the Year 2019 by the Sunday Times, Spectator and New Statesman A Waterstones Paperback of the Year and shortlisted for the Foyles Book of the Year 2019 Longlisted for the PEN / E.O. Wilson Literary Science Writing Award It is worse, much worse, than you think. The slowness of climate change is a fairy tale, perhaps as pernicious as the one that says it isn't happening at all, and if your anxiety about it is dominated by fears of sea-level rise, you are barely scratching the surface of what terrors are possible, even within the lifetime of a teenager today. Over the past decades, the term "Anthropocene" has climbed into the popular imagination - a name given to the geologic era we live in now, one defined by human intervention in the life of the planet. But however sanguine you might be about the proposition that we have ravaged the natural world, which we surely have, it is another thing entirely to consider the possibility that we have only provoked it, engineering first in ignorance and then in denial a climate system that will now go to war with us for many centuries, perhaps until it destroys us. In the meantime, it will remake us, transforming every aspect of the way we live-the planet no longer nurturing a dream of abundance, but a living nightmare.

Can each of us achieve our own "American dream" while recognizing needs of other individuals, society, and future generations? Not if our present national policies continue, warns long term planning expert Joseph L. Daleiden. He persuasively argues that if present socioeconomic trends remain, our nation faces social disaster before the middle of the 21st century.
These trends can be reversed, he insists, but only if we are willing to (1) reject failed policies both liberal and conservative directed at population growth, the environment, the national debt, trade, poverty, crime, race relations, education, healthcare, social security, and tax reform; (2) accept that all of these areas of concern are intertwined; and (3) take responsibility for our decisions.
Avoiding ideology and platitudes, Daleiden's pragmatic approach relies on actual evidence of how prospective policies will influence human behavior and whether their outcomes will increase or decrease human happiness in the long run.

Nature, Risk and Responsibility explores ethical interpretations of biotechnology and examines whether sufficient consensus exists or is emerging to enable this technology to occupy a stable role in the techno-economic, social and cultural order. The contributors address the nature and prospective implications of biotechnologies for nature, life and social organisation and employ a wide range of social theories to evaluate risks and propose responses.

This volume presents a neural network architecture for the prediction of conditional probability densities - which is vital when carrying out universal approximation on variables which are either strongly skewed or multimodal. Two alternative approaches are discussed: the GM network, in which all parameters are adapted in the training scheme, and the GM-RVFL model which draws on the random functional link net approach. Points of particular interest are: - it examines the modification to standard approaches needed for conditional probability prediction; - it provides the first real-world test results for recent theoretical findings about the relationship between generalisation performance of committees and the over-flexibility of their members; This volume will be of interest to all researchers, practitioners and postgraduate / advanced undergraduate students working on applications of neural networks - especially those related to finance and pattern recognition.

From the winner of the 2022 Royal Society Science Book Prize, a thrilling and thought-provoking account of the rise and fall of humankind.

For the first time in over ten millennia, the rate of human population growth is slowing down. The global population is forecast to begin declining in the second half of this century, and in 10,000 years’ time, our species will likely be extinct.

In The Decline and Fall of the Human Empire, Henry Gee shows how we arrived at this crucial moment in our history, beginning his story deep in the palaeolithic past and charting our dramatic rise from one species of human among many – teetering on the edge of extinction for more than a hundred millennia – to the most dominant animal to ever live on Earth.

But rapid climate change, a stagnating global economy, falling birth rates and an unexplainable decline in average human sperm count are combining to make our chances for longevity increasingly slim. There could be a way forward, but the launch window is narrow.

Gee argues that unless Homo sapiens establishes successful colonies in space within the next two centuries, our species is likely to stay earthbound and will have vanished entirely within another 10,000 years, bringing the seven-million-year story of the human lineage to an end.

Drawing on a dazzling array of the latest scientific research, Gee tells the extraordinary story of humanity with characteristic warmth and wit, and suggests how our exceptional species might avoid its tragic fate.

An introductory guide to managing cybersecurity for businesses. How to prevent, protect and respond to threats. Providing an insight to the extent and scale a potential damage could cause when there is a breech in cyber security. It includes case studies and advice from leading industry professionals, giving you the necessary strategies and resources to prevent, protect and respond to any threat: * Introduction to cyber security * Security framework * Support services for UK public and private sectors * Cyber security developments * Routing a map for resilience * Protecting financial data * Countermeasures to advance threats * Managing incidents and breaches * Preparing for further threats * Updating contingency plans

As a new century and a new millenium approach, the world braces itself for an outpouring of popular excitement, tabloid predictions and religious hysteria, all egged on by a strong dose of mass-media attention. This work offers an antidote to this information overload with a look at earlier millennial fevers and turn-of-the-century neuroses, from ancient times to 1999 in Times Square. By examining the past, it provides a perspective on the millennial hype coming in the near future.

In May 1997, the world watched as Garry Kasparov, the greatest chess player in the world, was defeated for the first time by the IBM supercomputer Deep Blue. It was a watershed moment in the history of technology: machine intelligence had arrived at the point where it could best human intellect. It wasn't a coincidence that Kasparov became the symbol of man's fight against the machines. Chess has long been the fulcrum in development of machine intelligence; the hoax automaton 'The Turk' in the 18th century and Alan Turing's first chess program in 1952 were two early examples of the quest for machines to think like humans -- a talent we measured by their ability to beat their creators at chess. As the pre-eminent chessmaster of the 80s and 90s, it was Kasparov's blessing and his curse to play against each generation's strongest computer champions, contributing to their development and advancing the field. Like all passionate competitors, Kasparov has taken his defeat and learned from it. He has devoted much energy to devising ways in which humans can partner with machines in order to produce results better than either can achieve alone. During the twenty years since playing Deep Blue, he's played both with and against machines, learning a great deal about our vital relationship with our most remarkable creations. Ultimately, he's become convinced that by embracing the competition between human and machine intelligence, we can spend less time worrying about being replaced and more thinking of new challenges to conquer. In this breakthrough book, Kasparov tells his side of the story of Deep Blue for the first time -- what it was like to strategize against an implacable, untiring opponent -- the mistakes he made and the reasons the odds were against him. But more than that, he tells his story of AI more generally, and how he's evolved to embrace it, taking part in an urgent debate with philosophers worried about human values, programmers creating self-learning neural networks, and engineers of cutting edge robotics.

In Japan, the Delphi method is applied since 1971 to foresee possible technological developments. The same approach was used in Germany in 1992 for the first time. The German expert survey about the development of future technology was based on the Japanese survey conducted in 1991 and discussed the same topics.
In this book, the results of both studies are compared and analysed. From the comparison, conclusions can be drawn on the relevance of certain technology fields or disciplines not only for public technology policy but also for companies. Possible times of realization, constraints on the realization, the current R&D level of nations or the necessity of international co-operation give hints about tomorrow's technology and its economic and societal impacts.

In today's world, numbers are in the ascendancy. Societies dominated by star ratings, scores, likes and lists are rapidly emerging, as data are collected on virtually every aspect of our lives. From annual university rankings, ratings agencies and fitness tracking technologies to our credit score and health status, everything and everybody is measured and evaluated. In this important new book, Steffen Mau offers a critical analysis of this increasingly pervasive phenomenon. While the original intention behind the drive to quantify may have been to build trust and transparency, Mau shows how metrics have in fact become a form of social conditioning. The ubiquitous language of ranking and scoring has changed profoundly our perception of value and status. What is more, through quantification, our capacity for competition and comparison has expanded significantly - we can now measure ourselves against others in practically every area. The rise of quantification has created and strengthened social hierarchies, transforming qualitative differences into quantitative inequalities that play a decisive role in shaping the life chances of individuals. This timely analysis of the pernicious impact of quantification will appeal to students and scholars across the social sciences, as well as anyone concerned by the cult of numbers and its impact on our lives and societies today.

Modern science, the Internet, big data, and AI are each saying the same thing to us: the world is--and always has been--far more complex and unpredictable than we've allowed ourselves to see. As a result we're undergoing a sea change in our understanding of how things happen, and in our deepest strategies for predicting, preparing for, and managing our lives and our businesses.

For example, machine learning allows us to make better predictions (think the weather, stock performance, online clicks) but we know less about why those predictions are right--and we need to get used to that. And in fact, over the past twenty years we've been unintentionally developing strategies that avoid anticipating what will happen so we don't have to depend on unreliable revenue forecasts, assumptions about customer needs, and hypotheses about how a product will be used. By embracing these strategies, we're flourishing by creating yet more possibilities and yet more unpredictability.

In wide-ranging stories and characteristically all-encompassing syntheses, technology researcher, internet expert, and philosopher David Weinberger reveals the trends that hide in so many aspects of our lives--and shows us how they matter.

This textbook provides an introduction to the scientific study of sociology and other social sciences. It offers the basic tools necessary for readers to become both critical consumers and beginning producers of scientific research on society. The authors present an integrated approach to research design and empirical analyses in which researchers can develop and test causal theories. They use examples from social science research that students will find engaging and inspiring and that will help them to understand key concepts. The book makes technical materials accessible to students who might otherwise be intimidated by mathematical examples. This new text, with the addition of sociologist Steven A. Tuch to the author team, follows the successful format, approach, and pedagogical features in Paul M. Kellstedt and Guy D. Whitten's bestselling text, The Fundamentals of Political Science Research, now in its third edition. Workbooks in Stata, SPSS, and R, three of the most popular statistical analysis programs, are available as separate purchases to accompany this textbook, enabling students to connect the lessons of this book to hands-on applications of the software.

A manifesto for transforming our thinking from reactionary short-termism to the long-term, widening our scope beyond today, tomorrow, even five years from now to gain perspective, become more creative, and reclaim meaning in our lives.

Every major problem we face today, from climate change to work anxiety, is the result of short-term thinking. We are constantly bombarded by updates, notifications, and “Breaking News,” that are overwhelming our central nervous systems, forcing us to react in the moment and ultimately disconnecting us from what truly matters. But there is a solution. We must embrace what Ari Wallach, futurist and founder of Longpath Labs, calls the “longpath”—a mantra and mindset he developed to help us get beyond short-term thinking, focus on the long view, and cultivate a futureconscious mindset.

Drawing on history, philosophy, theology, neuroscience, evolutionary psychology, and technology, Longpath reframes how we see our lives and the world. Wallach teaches us how to utilize the longpath mindset to strengthen our ability to look ahead, increase our capacity for cooperation, and even boost our creativity. Every decision we make today impacts the future. Wallach helps us improve our decision-making, challenging each of us to ask, “what is my longpath?”—what is my end goal and how does my choice align with my values and needs?

Whether it’s work, marriage, parenting, or simply trying to be a good human on the planet, framing decisions from a much larger scale creates a more fulfilling and sustainable life now and for future generations. By adopting the longpath mindset, we can relieve our reaction to stressful events and occurrences, cultivate future-conscious thinking, and come up with solutions to improve our lives today and tomorrow—and those of future generations.