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Books > Social sciences > Sociology, social studies > Social research & statistics > Social forecasting, futurology
In 2050, the billions of people living on Earth have found a way to manage the planetary system effectively. Everyone has access to adequate food, shelter, and clean water. Human health is no longer considered outside of the health of the ecosystems in which people live. Ecological awareness is an integral part of education. People respond effectively to social and environmental hazards, and societies care for the most vulnerable amongst them. The economy, too, has shifted. Carbon dioxide management is under control, and energy efficiency is the norm. The remaining rainforests have been preserved. Coral reefs are recovering. Fish stocks are thriving. Is any of this really possible? How can our complex social and economic systems interact with a complex planetary system undergoing rapid change to create a future we all want? This book is a contextualised collation of ideas articulated by the 50 participants of the Planet 2050 workshop held in Lund in October 2008, as part of The Planet in 2050, an interdisciplinary Fast Track Initiative of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. Participants were selected from academia and the sustainability practice community to give a wide-ranging, multi-cultural, trans-disciplinary set of perspectives. This collection explores four broad sectoral themes: energy and technologies; development, economies and culture; environment; and land use change. By doing so, this book emphasises the importance of a social dialogue on our collective future, and our responsibility to the Earth. It makes strong statements about what needs to happen to the global economy for a sustainable future and documents a new kind of scholarly discussion, engaging people from diverse knowledge communities in a spirit of exploration and reflexivity. The book provides a focus for dialogue and further study for postgraduates and researchers interested in global change as a multi-faceted, socio-environmental phenomenon, and as the book is written in an accessible scholarly style, assuming no prior specialist knowledge, it is also suitable for those involved in sustainability initiatives and policy.
Can each of us achieve our own "American dream" while recognizing
needs of other individuals, society, and future generations? Not if
our present national policies continue, warns long term planning
expert Joseph L. Daleiden. He persuasively argues that if present
socioeconomic trends remain, our nation faces social disaster
before the middle of the 21st century.
With the advent of a new millenium little more than a decade away, Professor Ferrarotti has written a unique collection of futurological scenarios that stresses the importance of both the historical and a muti-disciplinary approach. The author draws attention to the political tension underlying technological innovation, while heralding the anticipated appearance of a new ethos shaped by the exigencies of the new technological age. Old-fashioned individualism appears to be doomed, acknowledges the author; yet a new kind of socially-oriented individualism could develop, preserving that which is still vital in traditional values and influencing new, socio-psychological attitudes which are required by a technically advancing society.
Once upon a time, the world was neatly divided into prosperous and backward economies. Babies were plentiful, workers outnumbered retirees and people aspiring towards the middle class yearned to own homes and cars. Companies didn't need to see any further than Europe and the United States to do well. We grew up learning how to 'play the game', and we expected the rules to remain the same throughout our lifetimes. That world - and those rules - are over. By 2030, a new reality will take hold, and before you know it there will be more grandparents than grandchildren. The global economy will be driven by the non-Western consumer for the first time in modern history and there will be more global wealth owned by women than men. There will be more robots than workers and more currencies than countries. All these trends, currently underway, will change everything you know about culture, the economy and the world. 2030 is both a remarkable guide to the coming changes and an exercise in the power of 'lateral thinking', thereby revolutionising the way you think about cataclysmic change and its consequences.
This book examines the lifestyles, expectations and plans of Millennials and Generation Z and how they are redefining tourism. It demonstrates that if the tourism industry is to enjoy future growth, it must understand and meet the particular needs of these two generations. The volume explores the present and future challenges faced by the tourism industry as a result of the generational turnover, and seeks to answer the following questions: What contribution can the new generations make to the future of tourism? How are technological advancements and social networks shaping future travel trends? Can a generational perspective be useful to help the tourism industry recover from the COVID-19 crisis? The book will be of interest to researchers and students of sociology and tourism studies, as well as tourism professionals.
Predictions about the world have the power to grip whole societies,
and shape the actions of many groups whether working in politics,
ecology or religion. At the end of epochs and eras humans tend to
reflect on the shape of things to come. Most recently, fears about
the 'millennium bug' had thousands rushing to stock up on candles
and food in the weeks before New Year's Eve.
One of Barack Obama's Recommended Reads for Summer "[A] brave and necessary book . . . Anyone interested in the future of liberal democracy, in the US or anywhere else, should read this book." -Anne Applebaum "A convincing, humane, and hopeful guide to the present and future by one of our foremost democratic thinkers." -George Packer "A rare thing: [an] academic treatise . . . that may actually have influence in the arena of practical politics. . . . Passionate and personal." -Joe Klein, New York Times Book Review From one of our sharpest and most important political thinkers, a brilliant big-picture vision of the greatest challenge of our time-how to bridge the bitter divides within diverse democracies enough for them to remain stable and functional Some democracies are highly homogeneous. Others have long maintained a brutal racial or religious hierarchy, with some groups dominating and exploiting others. Never in history has a democracy succeeded in being both diverse and equal, treating members of many different ethnic or religious groups fairly. And yet achieving that goal is now central to the democratic project in countries around the world. It is, Yascha Mounk argues, the greatest experiment of our time. Drawing on history, social psychology, and comparative politics, Mounk examines how diverse societies have long suffered from the ills of domination, fragmentation, or structured anarchy. So it is hardly surprising that most people are now deeply pessimistic that different groups might be able to integrate in harmony, celebrating their differences without essentializing them. But Mounk shows us that the past can offer crucial insights for how to do better in the future. There is real reason for hope. It is up to us and the institutions we build whether different groups will come to see each other as enemies or friends, as strangers or compatriots. To make diverse democracies endure, and even thrive, we need to create a world in which our ascriptive identities come to matter less-not because we ignore the injustices that still characterize the United States and so many other countries around the world, but because we have succeeded in addressing them. The Great Experiment is that rare book that offers both a profound understanding of an urgent problem and genuine hope for our human capacity to solve it. As Mounk contends, giving up on the prospects of building fair and thriving diverse democracies is simply not an option-and that is why we must strive to realize a more ambitious vision for the future of our societies.
Young People and the Politics of Outrage and Hope brings together contributions from international youth studies experts who ask how young people and institutions are responding to high levels of unemployment, student debt, housing costs that lock many out of home ownership, and the challenge to find meaningful modes of participation in neo-liberal social contexts. Contributors including Henry Giroux, Anita Harris and Judith Bessant, draw on a range of theoretical, methodological and empirical work to identify and debate some of the challenges and opportunities of the politics of outrage and hope that should accompany academic, community and political discussions about the futures that young people will inherit and make. Young People and the Politics of Outrage and Hope is now available in paperback for individual customers.
As the uncertainty of global and local contexts continues to amplify, the Routledge Handbook for Creative Futures responds to the increasing urgency for reimagining futures beyond dystopias and utopias. It features essays that explore the challenges of how to think about compelling futures, what these better futures might be like, and what personal and collective practices are emerging that support the creation of more desirable futures. The handbook aims to find a sweet spot somewhere between despair and naive optimism, neither shying away from the massive socio-environmental planetary challenges currently facing humanity nor offering simplistic feel-good solutions. Instead, it offers ways forward-whether entirely new perspectives or Indigenous and Traditional Knowledge perspectives that have been marginalized within modernity-and shares potential transformative practices. The volume contains contributions from established and emerging scholars, practitioners, and scholar-practitioners with diverse backgrounds and experiences: a mix of Indigenous, Black, Asian, and White/Caucasian contributors, including women, men, and trans people from around the world, in places such as Kenya, India, US, Canada, and Switzerland, among many others. Chapters explore critical concepts alongside personal and collective practices for creating desirable futures at the individual, community, organizational, and societal levels. This scholarly and accessible book will be a valuable resource for researchers and students of leadership studies, social innovation, community and organizational development, policy studies, futures studies, cultural studies, sociology, and management studies. It will also appeal to educators, practitioners, professionals, and policymakers oriented toward activating creative potential for life-affirming futures for all.
'An indispensable guide.' Reid Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn 'Tech's most valuable teacher.' Forbes Silicon Valley's leading intellectual and the founder of O'Reilly Media explores the upside and the potential downsides of our future - what he calls the 'next economy'. Tim O'Reilly's genius is to identify and explain emerging technologies with world shaking potential - the World Wide Web, Open Source Software, Web 2.0, Open Government data, the Maker Movement, Big Data. 'The man who can really can make a whole industry happen,' according to Executive Chairman of Google Eric Schmidt, O'Reilly has most recently focused on the future of work - AI, algorithms, and new approaches to business organisation that will shape our lives. He has brought together an unlikely coalition of technologists, business leaders, labour advocates, and policy makers to wrestle with these issues. In WTF? he shares the evolution of his intellectual development, applying his approach to a number of challenging issues we will face as citizens, employees, business leaders, and a nation. What is the future when an increasing number of jobs can be performed by intelligent machines instead of people, or only done by people in partnership with those machines? What happens to our consumer based societies - to workers and to the companies that depend on their purchasing power? Is income inequality and unemployment an inevitable consequence of technological advancement, or are there paths to a better future? What will happen to business when technology-enabled networks and marketplaces are better at deploying talent than traditional companies? What's the future of education when on-demand learning outperforms traditional institutions? Will the fundamental social safety nets of the developed world survive the transition, and if not, what will replace them? The digital revolution has transformed the world of media, upending centuries-old companies and business models. Now, it is restructuring every business, every job, and every sector of society. Yet the biggest changes are still ahead. To survive, every industry and organisation will have to transform itself in multiple ways. O'Reilly explores what the next economy will mean for the world and every aspect of our lives - and what we can do to shape it.
From the New York Times bestselling authors of Abundance and Bold comes a practical playbook for technological convergence in our modern era. In their book Abundance, bestselling authors and futurists Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler tackled grand global challenges, such as poverty, hunger, and energy. Then, in Bold, they chronicled the use of exponential technologies that allowed the emergence of powerful new entrepreneurs. Now the bestselling authors are back with The Future Is Faster Than You Think, a blueprint for how our world will change in response to the next ten years of rapid technological disruption. Technology is accelerating far more quickly than anyone could have imagined. During the next decade, we will experience more upheaval and create more wealth than we have in the past hundred years. In this gripping and insightful roadmap to our near future, Diamandis and Kotler investigate how wave after wave of exponentially accelerating technologies will impact both our daily lives and society as a whole. What happens as AI, robotics, virtual reality, digital biology, and sensors crash into 3D printing, blockchain, and global gigabit networks? How will these convergences transform today's legacy industries? What will happen to the way we raise our kids, govern our nations, and care for our planet? Diamandis, a space-entrepreneur-turned-innovation-pioneer, and Kotler, bestselling author and peak performance expert, probe the science of technological convergence and how it will reinvent every part of our lives-transportation, retail, advertising, education, health, entertainment, food, and finance-taking humanity into uncharted territories and reimagining the world as we know it. As indispensable as it is gripping, The Future Is Faster Than You Think provides a prescient look at our impending future.
How do young people see the future? Are they optimistic or pessimistic? Do their views vary from culture to culture? Are young people actively engaged in creating their desired futures or are they passively receiving the future? What effect has globalization on youth culture? How is the future taught in schools? These and many other questions are dealt with in this volume of comparative empirical research from around the world on how youth see the future. Generally, youth are considered immature, irresponsible toward the future, cliquish, impressionistic, and dangerous toward self and others. They are considered as a mass market--two billion strong--the passive recipients of globalization. Most recently in OECD nations, youth have become fodder for political speeches--they are the problem that reflects both the failure of the welfare state (dependence on the state), the failure of globalization (unemployment), and postmodernism (loss of meaning and the crisis of the spirit). In the Third World, youth are seen not only as the problem, but equally as the force that can topple a regime (as in Yugoslavia). However, youth can also be seen as carriers of a new worldview, a new ideology. These and other views concerning youth are examined in this volume of comparative empirical research. Studies from around the world provide intriguing answers to questions about how youth see the future and their future roles. This book will be of particular interest to scholars, students, researchers, and policymakers involved with youth issues and future studies.
In a time of great gloom and doom internationally and of major global problems, this book offers an invaluable contribution to our understanding of alternative societies that could be better for humans and the environment. Bringing together a wide range of approaches and new strands of economic and social thinking from across the US, Mexico, Latin America, Europe, Asia, Middle East and Africa, Luke Martell critically assesses contemporary alternatives and shows the ways forward with a convincing argument of pluralist socialism. Presenting a much-needed introduction to the debate on alternatives to capitalism, this ambitious book is not about how things are, but how they can be!
"Should be required reading for anyone interested in preserving our 246-year experiment in self-government." -The New York Times Book Review * "Well researched and eloquently presented." -The Atlantic * "Delivers Cormac McCarthy-worthy drama; while the nonfictional asides imbue that drama with the authority of documentary." -The New York Times Book Review A celebrated journalist takes a fiercely divided America and imagines five chilling scenarios that lead to its collapse, based on in-depth interviews with experts of all kinds. The United States is coming to an end. The only question is how. On a small two-lane bridge in a rural county that loathes the federal government, the US Army uses lethal force to end a standoff with hard-right anti-government patriots. Inside an ordinary diner, a disaffected young man with a handgun takes aim at the American president stepping in for an impromptu photo-op, and a bullet splits the hyper-partisan country into violently opposed mourners and revelers. In New York City, a Category 2 hurricane plunges entire neighborhoods underwater and creates millions of refugees overnight-a blow that comes on the heels of a financial crash and years of catastrophic droughts-and tips America over the edge into ruin. These nightmarish scenarios are just three of the five possibilities most likely to spark devastating chaos in the United States that are brought to life in The Next Civil War, a chilling and deeply researched work of speculative nonfiction. Drawing upon sophisticated predictive models and nearly two hundred interviews with experts-civil war scholars, military leaders, law enforcement officials, secret service agents, agricultural specialists, environmentalists, war historians, and political scientists-journalist Stephen Marche predicts the terrifying future collapse that so many of us do not want to see unfolding in front of our eyes. Marche has spoken with soldiers and counterinsurgency experts about what it would take to control the population of the United States, and the battle plans for the next civil war have already been drawn up. Not by novelists, but by colonels. No matter your political leaning, most of us can sense that America is barreling toward catastrophe-of one kind or another. Relevant and revelatory, The Next Civil War plainly breaks down the looming threats to America and is a must-read for anyone concerned about the future of its people, its land, and its government.
In Available to be Poisoned: Toxicity as a Form of Life, Dipali Mathur contends that the saturation of the planet with toxic chemicals is not the "inevitable" price of progress but marks a deliberate, violent relationship with the Earth and its "others," born of colonialism and capitalism's entwined histories. Mathur offers the innovative concept of "toxicity as a form of life" to signpost the normalization of toxic exposure. Mathur analyzes how states use toxicity to control populations on the fringes of our global political economy. Drawing on three case studies from India, Mathur shows how exposure to toxicity is weaponized to make certain populations "available for poisoning."
How do you predict something that has never happened before? There's a useful calculation being employed by Wall Street, Silicon Valley and maths professors all over the world, and it predicts that the human species will become extinct in 760 years. Unfortunately, there is disagreement over how to apply the formula, and some argue that we might only have twenty years left. Originally devised by British clergyman Thomas Bayes, the theorem languished in obscurity for two hundred years before being resurrected as the lynchpin of the digital economy. With brief detours into archaeology, philology, and overdue library books, William Poundstone explains how we can use it to predict pretty much anything. What is the chance that there are multiple universes? How long will Hamilton run? Will the US stock market continue to perform as well this century as it has for the last hundred years? And are we really all doomed?
Technology moves fast - so where will it have taken us by 2050? How will it affect the way we live? And how far are we willing to let it go? In Megatech, distinguished scientists, industry leaders, star academics and acclaimed science-fiction writers join journalists from The Economist to explore answers to these questions and more. Twenty experts in the field, including Nobel prize-winner Frank Wilczek, Silicon Valley venture-capitalist Ann Winblad, philanthropist Melinda Gates and science-fiction author Alastair Reynolds identify the big ideas, fantastic inventions and potentially sinister trends that will shape our future. Join them to explore a brave new world of brain-computer interfaces, vat-grown cruelty-free meat, knitted cars and guided bullets. The writers predict the vast changes that technology will bring to everything from food production to health care, energy output, manufacturing and the military balance. They also consider the impact on jobs, and how we can prepare for the opportunities, as well as the dangers, that await. Thought-provoking, engaging and full of insight from the forefront of tech innovation, Megatech is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand tomorrow's world.
This volume provides the essential vocabulary currently employed in discourses on the future in 50 contributions by renowned scholars in their respective fields, which examine future imaginaries across cultures and time. Not situated in the field of "futurology" proper, it comes at future studies 'sideways' and offers a multidisciplinary treatment of a critical futures' vocabulary. The contributors have their disciplinary homes in a wide range of subjects - history, cultural studies, literary studies, sociology, media studies, American studies, Japanese studies, Chinese studies, and philosophy - and critically illuminate numerous discourses about the future (or futures), past and present. In compiling such a critical vocabulary, this book seeks to foster conversations about futures in study programs and research forums and offers a toolbox for discussing them with an adequate degree of complexity.
What existential threats does humanity face? And how can we secure our future? 'The Precipice is a powerful book . . . Ord's love for humanity and hope for its future is infectious' Spectator 'Ord's analysis of the science is exemplary . . . Thrillingly written' Sunday Times We live during the most important era of human history. In the twentieth century, we developed the means to destroy ourselves - without developing the moral framework to ensure we won't. This is the Precipice, and how we respond to it will be the most crucial decision of our time. Oxford moral philosopher Toby Ord explores the risks to humanity's future, from the familiar man-made threats of climate change and nuclear war, to the potentially greater, more unfamiliar threats from engineered pandemics and advanced artificial intelligence. With clear and rigorous thinking, Ord calculates the various risk levels, and shows how our own time fits within the larger story of human history. We can say with certainty that the novel coronavirus does not pose such a risk. But could the next pandemic? And what can we do, in our present moment, to face the risks head on? A major work that brings together the disciplines of physics, biology, earth and computer science, history, anthropology, statistics, international relations, political science and moral philosophy, The Precipice is a call for a new understanding of our age: a major reorientation in the way we see the world, our history, and the role we play in it.
This book examines the lifestyles, expectations and plans of Millennials and Generation Z and how they are redefining tourism. It demonstrates that if the tourism industry is to enjoy future growth, it must understand and meet the particular needs of these two generations. The volume explores the present and future challenges faced by the tourism industry as a result of the generational turnover, and seeks to answer the following questions: What contribution can the new generations make to the future of tourism? How are technological advancements and social networks shaping future travel trends? Can a generational perspective be useful to help the tourism industry recover from the COVID-19 crisis? The book will be of interest to researchers and students of sociology and tourism studies, as well as tourism professionals.
'A remarkably hopeful and useful book...The climate crisis leaves us no choice but to build a new world and as Sanderson makes clear, we are capable of making it a better one than the dirty and dangerous planet we've come to take for granted.' Bill McKibben, Observer book of the week We depend on a handful of metals and rare earths to power our phones and computers. Increasingly, we rely on them to power our cars and our homes. Whoever controls these finite commodities will become rich beyond imagining. Sanderson journeys to meet the characters, companies, and nations scrambling for the new resources, linking remote mines in the Congo and Chile's Atacama Desert to giant Chinese battery factories, shadowy commodity traders, secretive billionaires, a new generation of scientists attempting to solve the dilemma of a 'greener' world. |
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