This volume brings together a range of contributors from Europe and
North America. All contributions were especially commissioned with
a view to e- cidating a major multidisciplinary topic that is of
concern to both academics and practitioners. The focus of the book
is on expert judgment and its interaction with decision support
systems. In the first part, the nature of expertise is discussed
and characteristics of expert judges are described. Issues concemed
with the eval- tion of judgment in the psychological laboratory are
assessed and contrasted with studies of expert judgment in
ecologically valid contexts. In addition, issues concerned with
eliciting and validating expert knowledge are discussed. Dem-
strations of good judgmental performance are linked to situational
factors such as feedback cycles, and measurement of coherence and
reliability in expert ju- ment is introduced as a baseline
determinant of good judgmental performance. Issues concerned with
the representation of elicited expert knowledge in kno- edge-based
systems are evaluated and methods are described that have been
shown to produce improvements in judgmental performance. Behavioral
and mathematical ways of combining judgments from multiple experts
are compared and contrasted. Finally, the issues developed in the
preceding contributions are focused on current controversies in
decision support. Expert judgment is utilized as a major input into
decision analysis, forecasting with statistical models, and expert
s- tems.
General
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