The result of an intensive two-year research study, this volume
examines the likely course of the AIDS epidemic over the next
fifteen years. Extremely well-documented and based largely on
sophisticated statistical analysis, the study makes detailed
forecasts of who will become sick; explores the social, political,
and economic consequences of the spread of the disease; and
analyzes the controversial policy choices that must be made if the
epidemic is to be contained. The authors argue that current
policies have failed in their efforts to combat the spread of AIDS
and suggest new public policy measures aimed at dramatically
reducing the spread of the virus. AIDS researchers, health care
practitioners, and policymakers will find The Catastrophe Ahead
both an invaluable source of detailed statistical information about
the AIDS epidemic and an urgent call to action.
Based on the study results, the authors conclude that by 2002, a
million and a half people may die of AIDS and more than 4 million
others may be infected with the disease. They explore various
scenarios--worst, best, and middle cases--demonstrating that blacks
face by far the greatest risks: under the most likely scenario some
15 percent of all blacks between the ages of 15 and 50 will carry
the virus by 2002. The authors propose a universal routine
voluntary testing program to avert this catastrophe, enabling
people to sexually self-segregate themselves based on whether or
not they carry the HIV virus. While the authors concede that this
program cannot completely stem the tide of infection, they argue
that it offers one of the best defenses available against the
epidemic. Well written and illustrated with numerous tables and
figures, this volume should be required reading for anyone involved
in AIDS counseling and policymaking.
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