The second edition of this widely acclaimed text presents a thoroughly up-to-date intuitive account of recent developments in econometrics. It continues to present the frontiers of research in an accessible form for non-specialist econometricians, advanced undergraduates and graduate students wishing to carry out applied econometric research. This new edition contains substantially revised chapters on cointegration and vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling, reflecting the developments that have been made in these important areas since the first edition. Special attention is given to the Dickey-Pantula approach and the testing for the order of integration of a variable in the presence of a structural break. For VAR models, impulse response analysis is explained and illustrated. There is also a detailed but intuitive explanation of the Johansen method, an increasingly popular technique. The text contains specially constructed and original tables of critical values for a wide range of tests for stationarity and cointegration. These tables are for Dickey-Fuller tests, Dickey-Hasza-Fuller and HEGY seasonal integration tests and the Perron 'additive outlier' integration test.

This book provides an up-to-date series of advanced chapters on applied financial econometric techniques pertaining the various fields of commodities finance, mathematics & stochastics, international macroeconomics and financial econometrics. International Financial Markets: Volume I provides a key repository on the current state of knowledge, the latest debates and recent literature on international financial markets. Against the background of the "financialization of commodities" since the 2008 sub-primes crisis, section one contains recent contributions on commodity and financial markets, pushing the frontiers of applied econometrics techniques. The second section is devoted to exchange rate and current account dynamics in an environment characterized by large global imbalances. Part three examines the latest research in the field of meta-analysis in economics and finance. This book will be useful to students and researchers in applied econometrics; academics and students seeking convenient access to an unfamiliar area. It will also be of great interest established researchers seeking a single repository on the current state of knowledge, current debates and relevant literature.

In many branches of science relevant observations are taken sequentially over time. Bayesian Analysis of Time Series discusses how to use models that explain the probabilistic characteristics of these time series and then utilizes the Bayesian approach to make inferences about their parameters. This is done by taking the prior information and via Bayes theorem implementing Bayesian inferences of estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction. The methods are demonstrated using both R and WinBUGS. The R package is primarily used to generate observations from a given time series model, while the WinBUGS packages allows one to perform a posterior analysis that provides a way to determine the characteristic of the posterior distribution of the unknown parameters. Features Presents a comprehensive introduction to the Bayesian analysis of time series. Gives many examples over a wide variety of fields including biology, agriculture, business, economics, sociology, and astronomy. Contains numerous exercises at the end of each chapter many of which use R and WinBUGS. Can be used in graduate courses in statistics and biostatistics, but is also appropriate for researchers, practitioners and consulting statisticians. About the author Lyle D. Broemeling, Ph.D., is Director of Broemeling and Associates Inc., and is a consulting biostatistician. He has been involved with academic health science centers for about 20 years and has taught and been a consultant at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center and the University of Texas School of Public Health. His main interest is in developing Bayesian methods for use in medical and biological problems and in authoring textbooks in statistics. His previous books for Chapman & Hall/CRC include Bayesian Biostatistics and Diagnostic Medicine, and Bayesian Methods for Agreement.

This is a two-volume collection of major papers which have shaped the development of econometrics. Part I includes articles which together provide an overview of the history of econometrics, Part II addresses the relationship between econometrics and statistics, the articles in Part III constitute early applied studies, and Part IV includes articles concerned with the role and method of econometrics. The work comprises 42 articles, dating from 1921-1991, and contributors include E.W. Gilboy, W.C. Mitchell, J.J. Spengler, R. Stone, H.O. Wold and S. Wright.

Following the recent publication of the award winning and much acclaimed "The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics," second edition which brings together Nobel Prize winners and the brightest young scholars to survey the discipline, we are pleased to announce "The New Palgrave Economics Collection." Due to demand from the economics community these books address key subject areas within the field. Each title is comprised of specially selected articles from the Dictionary and covers a fundamental theme within the discipline. All of the articles have been specifically chosen by the editors of the Dictionary, Steven N.Durlauf and Lawrence E.Blume and are written by leading practitioners in the field. The Collections provide the reader with easy to access information on complex and important subject areas, and allow individual scholars and students to have their own personal reference copy.

This book provides in-depth analyses on accounting methods of GDP, statistic calibers and comparative perspectives on Chinese GDP. Beginning with an exploration of international comparisons of GDP, the book introduces the theoretical backgrounds, data sources, algorithms of the exchange rate method and the purchasing power parity method and discusses the advantages, disadvantages, and the latest developments in the two methods. This book further elaborates on the reasons for the imperfections of the Chinese GDP data including limitations of current statistical techniques and the accounting system, as well as the relatively confusing statistics for the service industry. The authors then make suggestions for improvement. Finally, the authors emphasize that evaluation of a country's economy and social development should not be solely limited to GDP, but should focus more on indicators of the comprehensive national power, national welfare, and the people's livelihood. This book will be of interest to economists, China-watchers, and scholars of geopolitics.

New statistical methods and future directions of research in time series

A Course in Time Series Analysis demonstrates how to build time series models for univariate and multivariate time series data. It brings together material previously available only in the professional literature and presents a unified view of the most advanced procedures available for time series model building. The authors begin with basic concepts in univariate time series, providing an up-to-date presentation of ARIMA models, including the Kalman filter, outlier analysis, automatic methods for building ARIMA models, and signal extraction. They then move on to advanced topics, focusing on heteroscedastic models, nonlinear time series models, Bayesian time series analysis, nonparametric time series analysis, and neural networks. Multivariate time series coverage includes presentations on vector ARMA models, cointegration, and multivariate linear systems. Special features include:

• Contributions from eleven of the world’s leading figures in time series
• Shared balance between theory and application
• Exercise series sets
• Many real data examples
• Consistent style and clear, common notation in all contributions
• 60 helpful graphs and tables

Requiring no previous knowledge of the subject, A Course in Time Series Analysis is an important reference and a highly useful resource for researchers and practitioners in statistics, economics, business, engineering, and environmental analysis.

The 2008 credit crisis started with the failure of one large bank: Lehman Brothers. Since then the focus of both politicians and regulators has been on stabilising the economy and preventing future financial instability. At this juncture, we are at the last stage of future-proofing the financial sector by raising capital requirements and tightening financial regulation. Now the policy agenda needs to concentrate on transforming the banking sector into an engine for growth. Reviving competition in the banking sector after the state interventions of the past years is a key step in this process. This book introduces and explains a relatively new concept in competition measurement: the performance-conduct-structure (PCS) indicator. The key idea behind this measure is that a firm's efficiency is more highly rewarded in terms of market share and profit, the stronger competitive pressure is. The book begins by explaining the financial market's fundamental obstacles to competition presenting a brief survey of the complex relationship between financial stability and competition. The theoretical contributions of Hay and Liu and Boone provide the theoretical underpinning for the PCS indicator, while its application to banking and insurance illustrates its empirical qualities. Finally, this book presents a systematic comparison between the results of this approach and (all) existing methods as applied to 46 countries, over the same sample period. This book presents a comprehensive overview of the knowns and unknowns of financial sector competition for commercial and central bankers, policy-makers, supervisors and academics alike.

Predicting foreign exchange rates has presented a long-standing challenge for economists. However, the recent advances in computational techniques, statistical methods, newer datasets on emerging market currencies, etc., offer some hope. While we are still unable to beat a driftless random walk model, there has been serious progress in the field. This book provides an in-depth assessment of the use of novel statistical approaches and machine learning tools in predicting foreign exchange rate movement. First, it offers a historical account of how exchange rate regimes have evolved over time, which is critical to understanding turning points in a historical time series. It then presents an overview of the previous attempts at modeling exchange rates, and how different methods fared during this process. At the core sections of the book, the author examines the time series characteristics of exchange rates and how contemporary statistics and machine learning can be useful in improving predictive power, compared to previous methods used. Exchange rate determination is an active research area, and this book will appeal to graduate-level students of international economics, international finance, open economy macroeconomics, and management. The book is written in a clear, engaging, and straightforward way, and will greatly improve access to this much-needed knowledge in the field.

Following the recent publication of the award winning and much acclaimed "The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics," second edition which brings together Nobel Prize winners and the brightest young scholars to survey the discipline, we are pleased to announce "The New Palgrave Economics Collection." Due to demand from the economics community these books address key subject areas within the field. Each title is comprised of specially selected articles from the Dictionary and covers a fundamental theme within the discipline. All of the articles have been specifically chosen by the editors of the Dictionary, Steven N.Durlauf and Lawrence E.Blume and are written by leading practitioners in the field. The Collections provide the reader with easy to access information on complex and important subject areas, and allow individual scholars and students to have their own personal reference copy.

Focuses on the assumptions underlying the algorithms rather than their statistical properties Presents cutting-edge analysis of factor models and finite mixture models. Uses a hands-on approach to examine the assumptions made by the models and when the models fail to estimate accurately Utilizes interesting real-world data sets that can be used to analyze important microeconomic problems Introduces R programming concepts throughout the book. Includes appendices that discuss many of the concepts introduced in the book, as well as measures of uncertainty in microeconometrics.

This book brings together domains in financial asset pricing and valuation, financial investment theory, econometrics modeling, and the empirical analyses of financial data by applying appropriate econometric techniques. These domains are highly intertwined and should be properly understood in order to correctly and effectively harness the power of data and methods for investment and financial decision-making. The book is targeted at advanced finance undergraduates and beginner professionals performing financial forecasts or empirical modeling who will find it refreshing to see how forecasting is not simply running a least squares regression line across data points, and that there are many minefields and pitfalls to avoid, such as spurious results and incorrect interpretations.

This book provides an up-to-date series of advanced chapters on applied financial econometric techniques pertaining the various fields of commodities finance, mathematics & stochastics, international macroeconomics and financial econometrics. Financial Mathematics, Volatility and Covariance Modelling: Volume 2 provides a key repository on the current state of knowledge, the latest debates and recent literature on financial mathematics, volatility and covariance modelling. The first section is devoted to mathematical finance, stochastic modelling and control optimization. Chapters explore the recent financial crisis, the increase of uncertainty and volatility, and propose an alternative approach to deal with these issues. The second section covers financial volatility and covariance modelling and explores proposals for dealing with recent developments in financial econometrics This book will be useful to students and researchers in applied econometrics; academics and students seeking convenient access to an unfamiliar area. It will also be of great interest established researchers seeking a single repository on the current state of knowledge, current debates and relevant literature.

For courses in Econometrics. A Clear, Practical Introduction to Econometrics Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide offers students an innovative introduction to elementary econometrics. Through real-world examples and exercises, the book covers the topic of single-equation linear regression analysis in an easily understandable format. The Seventh Edition is appropriate for all levels: beginner econometric students, regression users seeking a refresher, and experienced practitioners who want a convenient reference. Praised as one of the most important texts in the last 30 years, the book retains its clarity and practicality in previous editions with a number of substantial improvements throughout.

Solve the DVA/FVA Overlap Issue and Effectively Manage Portfolio Credit Risk Counterparty Risk and Funding: A Tale of Two Puzzles explains how to study risk embedded in financial transactions between the bank and its counterparty. The authors provide an analytical basis for the quantitative methodology of dynamic valuation, mitigation, and hedging of bilateral counterparty risk on over-the-counter (OTC) derivative contracts under funding constraints. They explore credit, debt, funding, liquidity, and rating valuation adjustment (CVA, DVA, FVA, LVA, and RVA) as well as replacement cost (RC), wrong-way risk, multiple funding curves, and collateral. The first part of the book assesses today's financial landscape, including the current multi-curve reality of financial markets. In mathematical but model-free terms, the second part describes all the basic elements of the pricing and hedging framework. Taking a more practical slant, the third part introduces a reduced-form modeling approach in which the risk of default of the two parties only shows up through their default intensities. The fourth part addresses counterparty risk on credit derivatives through dynamic copula models. In the fifth part, the authors present a credit migrations model that allows you to account for rating-dependent credit support annex (CSA) clauses. They also touch on nonlinear FVA computations in credit portfolio models. The final part covers classical tools from stochastic analysis and gives a brief introduction to the theory of Markov copulas. The credit crisis and ongoing European sovereign debt crisis have shown the importance of the proper assessment and management of counterparty risk. This book focuses on the interaction and possible overlap between DVA and FVA terms. It also explores the particularly challenging issue of counterparty risk in portfolio credit modeling. Primarily for researchers and graduate students in financial mathematics, the book is also suitable for financial quants, managers in banks, CVA desks, and members of supervisory bodies.

The proliferation of financial derivatives over the past decades, options in particular, has underscored the increasing importance of derivative pricing literacy among students, researchers, and practitioners. Derivative Pricing: A Problem-Based Primer demystifies the essential derivative pricing theory by adopting a mathematically rigorous yet widely accessible pedagogical approach that will appeal to a wide variety of audience. Abandoning the traditional "black-box" approach or theorists' "pedantic" approach, this textbook provides readers with a solid understanding of the fundamental mechanism of derivative pricing methodologies and their underlying theory through a diversity of illustrative examples. The abundance of exercises and problems makes the book well-suited as a text for advanced undergraduates, beginning graduates as well as a reference for professionals and researchers who need a thorough understanding of not only "how," but also "why" derivative pricing works. It is especially ideal for students who need to prepare for the derivatives portion of the Society of Actuaries Investment and Financial Markets Exam. Features Lucid explanations of the theory and assumptions behind various derivative pricing models. Emphasis on intuitions, mnemonics as well as common fallacies. Interspersed with illustrative examples and end-of-chapter problems that aid a deep understanding of concepts in derivative pricing. Mathematical derivations, while not eschewed, are made maximally accessible. A solutions manual is available for qualified instructors. The Author Ambrose Lo is currently Assistant Professor of Actuarial Science at the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science at the University of Iowa. He received his Ph.D. in Actuarial Science from the University of Hong Kong in 2014, with dependence structures, risk measures, and optimal reinsurance being his research interests. He is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries (FSA) and a Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst (CERA). His research papers have been published in top-tier actuarial journals, such as ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, and Scandinavian Actuarial Journal.

This book analyzes the relationship between technological innovation and economic development in Japan before World War II. Guan Quan deploys econometric analysis, multivariate statistical analysis and case studies from different industries to shed light on technological innovation in the Japanese context with particular emphasis on the importance of the patent system. A great deal of new inventions and patents in this period led to fast economic growth in Japan characterized by the simultaneous development of both traditional and modern industries. These insights help reshape the understanding of Japan's economic development and industrial advancement at an early stage and provide pointers to developing countries as to how human capital, social capabilities and thereby technological innovation can figure in economic growth. The book will appeal to academics of the East Asian economy, development economics and modern economic history as well as general readers interested in the miracle of the Japanese economy as the first to achieve economic development and modernization among non-Western countries.

This is Volume 24 of the monograph series International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics. ISETE publishes proceedings of conferences and symposia, as well as research monographs of the highest quality and importance. All articles published in these volumes are refereed relative to the standards of the best journals, therefore not all papers presented at related symposia are published in these proceedings volumes. The topics chosen for these volumes are those of particular research importance at the time of the selection of the topic.

Co-integration, equilibrium and equilibrium correction are key concepts in modern applications of econometrics to real world problems. This book provides direction and guidance to the now vast literature facing students and graduate economists. Econometric theory is linked to practical issues such as how to identify equilibrium relationships, how to deal with structural breaks associated with regime changes and what to do when variables are of different orders of integration.

Statistics for Finance develops students' professional skills in statistics with applications in finance. Developed from the authors' courses at the Technical University of Denmark and Lund University, the text bridges the gap between classical, rigorous treatments of financial mathematics that rarely connect concepts to data and books on econometrics and time series analysis that do not cover specific problems related to option valuation. The book discusses applications of financial derivatives pertaining to risk assessment and elimination. The authors cover various statistical and mathematical techniques, including linear and nonlinear time series analysis, stochastic calculus models, stochastic differential equations, Ito's formula, the Black-Scholes model, the generalized method-of-moments, and the Kalman filter. They explain how these tools are used to price financial derivatives, identify interest rate models, value bonds, estimate parameters, and much more. This textbook will help students understand and manage empirical research in financial engineering. It includes examples of how the statistical tools can be used to improve value-at-risk calculations and other issues. In addition, end-of-chapter exercises develop students' financial reasoning skills.

Using data from the World Values Survey, this book sheds light on the link between happiness and the social group to which one belongs. The work is based on a rigorous statistical analysis of differences in the probability of happiness and life satisfaction between the predominant social group and subordinate groups. The cases of India and South Africa receive deep attention in dedicated chapters on cast and race, with other chapters considering issues such as cultural bias, religion, patriarchy, and gender. An additional chapter offers a global perspective. On top of this, the longitudinal nature of the data facilitates an examination of how world happiness has evolved between 1994 and 2014. This book will be a valuable reference for advanced students, scholars and policymakers involved in development economics, well-being, development geography, and sociology.

Economic Models for Industrial Organization focuses on the specification and estimation of econometric models for research in industrial organization. In recent decades, empirical work in industrial organization has moved towards dynamic and equilibrium models, involving econometric methods which have features distinct from those used in other areas of applied economics. These lecture notes, aimed for a first or second-year PhD course, motivate and explain these econometric methods, starting from simple models and building to models with the complexity observed in typical research papers. The covered topics include discrete-choice demand analysis, models of dynamic behavior and dynamic games, multiple equilibria in entry games and partial identification, and auction models.

This open access book focuses on the concepts, tools and techniques needed to successfully model ever-changing time-series data. It emphasizes the need for general models to account for the complexities of the modern world and how these can be applied to a range of issues facing Earth, from modelling volcanic eruptions, carbon dioxide emissions and global temperatures, to modelling unemployment rates, wage inflation and population growth. Except where otherwise noted, this book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0.