This book offers a structured framework for critical thinking and decision making that shows how to use hindsight, insight, and foresight to navigate through complexity. Every organization and every person faces rapid change and complexity. Contextual intelligence - understanding fully the context in which one is operating - teaches the reader how to navigate that complexity and respond appropriately in the face of change (expected and unexpected). The Three-Dimensional (3D) Thinking (TM) framework helps structure critical thinking by showing how to appropriately bring past experience, present intuition, and future ambiguity- in other words: hindsight, insight, and foresight - to bear on any given problem. Kutz offers a way to rationally organize difficult concepts such as complexity, tacit knowledge, and synchronicity into usable and understandable language, but more importantly teaches the reader how to apply these concepts in a very practical and meaningful way with measurable and tangible outcomes. The book also describes in detail 12 behaviors associated with contextual intelligence. Four behaviors are associated with hindsight, four behaviors are associated with insight, and four behaviors are associated with foresight. The book takes the reader through the 12 behaviors and how they relate to 3D Thinking. Cases and anecdotes are used generously to provide examples. Chapters are followed by critical thinking questions and questions related to the cases in the chapters. Furthermore, questions and practical tools are introduced that help the reader assess and determine their level of contextual intelligence.

Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.

This book outlines the latest trends in the use of multicriteria analysis in agriculture by highlighting recent applications for modeling agricultural decision-making. It introduces specific case studies using multicriteria analysis as a method for selecting multiattribute discrete alternatives or solving multiobjective planning problems. The book is intended for a broad readership, including agricultural and environmental economists, engineers and all scientists whose work involves the management of agricultural resources and decision-making in agriculture. The methods and applications presented in this book cover decision-making processes in agricultural and environmental contexts. The methodologies described consider multiple criteria simultaneously in a wide range of complex decision-making contexts by taking into account multiple, conflicting criteria. Given the wide range of case studies covered, the book offers a comprehensive guide to decision-making in the agricultural context and beyond.

This book explores how enterprises adapt to challenges in their business environments. It focuses on the critical elements within organisations that every executive must address in order to remain competitive. It takes a pluralist approach in trying to broaden our knowledge on organisational adaptations. It also offers an exploratory delve into existing literature of organisational study. This is biased for content, context and process framework and processual analytic approach in order to identify, determine, understand the intricacies of adaptations going on in various business organisations. The book also includes a case study of how Kodak and Fujifilm responded to digitalisation of photographic film industry, which is an example of major adaptation change. Many global brands are often contending with similar issues and real life challenges. Simply put, today's business environment demands a new way of doing business that challenges brand's existing core business philosophy. Organisations are 'individual' entities in their own rights. Businesses have devised ways of surviving their environments. They do this by downsizing, merger and acquisition, business ecosystems, other forms of collaborations and strategic alliances. While this is true, current research works into generic predictors and/or concepts that enhance the transformation process are scarce. It is particularly important to align the theories and concepts of organisational adaptations with realities in the business environment. This book delves deep and explains adaptations in organisations, but also offers insight for how executives can adapt and thrive in their dynamic business environments.

The book develops manufacturing concepts and applications beyond physical production and towards a wider manufacturing value chain incorporating external stakeholders that include suppliers of raw materials and parts, customers, collaborating manufacturing companies, manufacturing service providers, and environmental organisations. The focal point of the value chain remains as a manufacturing system and its operations whiles flows of parts/materials and information and services across the supply/value chain tiers are taken into account. The book emphasises on the two innovative paradigms of Reconfigurable Manufacturing Systems (RMS) and the 4th industrial revolution (Industry 4.0) along with their incorporated development. RMS, as a relatively new paradigm, has been introduced to meet the requirements of 'the factories of the future', which is aimed by Industry 4.0, though introducing greater responsiveness and customised flexibility into production systems, in which changes in product volumes and types occur regularly. Manufacturing responsiveness can be achieved by RMS through reconfiguring the production facilities according to changing demands of products and new market conditions. The book addresses challenges of mass-customisation and dynamic changes in the supply-chain environment by focusing on developing new techniques related to integrability, scalability and re-configurability at a system level and manufacturing readiness in terms of financial and technical feasibility of RMS. It demonstrate the expected impacts of an RMS design on operational performance and its supply/value chain in the current/future manufacturing environment facing dynamic changes in the internal/external circumstances. In order to establish a circular economy through the RMS value chain, an integrated data-based reconfiguration link is introduced to incorporate information sharing amongst the value chain stakeholders and facilitate grouping products into families with allocation of the product families to the corresponding system configurations with optimal product-process allocation. Decision support systems such as multi criteria decision making tools are developed and applied for the selection of product families and optimising product-process configuration. The proposed models are illustrated through real case studies in applicable manufacturing firms.

This new Edition of Electronic Commerce is a complete update of the leading graduate level/advanced undergraduate level textbook on the subject. Electronic commerce (EC) describes the manner in which transactions take place over electronic networks, mostly the Internet. It is the process of electronically buying and selling goods, services, and information. Certain EC applications, such as buying and selling stocks and airline tickets online, are reaching maturity, some even exceeding non-Internet trades. However, EC is not just about buying and selling; it also is about electronically communicating, collaborating, and discovering information. It is about e-learning, e-government, social networks, and much more. EC is having an impact on a significant portion of the world, affecting businesses, professions, trade, and of course, people. The most important developments in EC since 2014 are the continuous phenomenal growth of social networks, especially Facebook , LinkedIn and Instagram, and the trend toward conducting EC with mobile devices. Other major developments are the expansion of EC globally, especially in China where you can find the world's largest EC company. Much attention is lately being given to smart commerce and the use of AI-based analytics and big data to enhance the field. Finally, some emerging EC business models are changing industries (e.g., the shared economy models of Uber and Airbnb). The 2018 (9th) edition, brings forth the latest trends in e-commerce, including smart commerce, social commerce, social collaboration, shared economy, innovations, and mobility.

This book presents the main principles of preference disaggregation analysis and covers theoretical advances in preference modelling, group decision making, classification methods, robustness analysis, process mining, and decision support systems. In addition, it highlights several applications of the preference disaggregation analysis in a wide range of areas, such as customer satisfaction analysis, consumer behavior, energy and environmental policy, strategy development, and agricultural marketing. This book was published in honor of Yannis Siskos on the occasion of his retirement from the University of Piraeus, Greece. It offers a unique snapshot of the preference disaggregation philosophy in multiple criteria decision analysis and presents a range of research ideas, many of which were significantly influenced by Professor Siskos work.

This book provides an in-depth analysis of investment problems pertaining to electric energy infrastructure, including both generation and transmission facilities. The analysis encompasses decision-making tools for expansion planning, reinforcement, and the selection and timing of investment options. In this regard, the book provides an up-to-date description of analytical tools to address challenging investment questions such as: How can we expand and/or reinforce our aging electricity transmission infrastructure? How can we expand the transmission network of a given region to integrate significant amounts of renewable generation? How can we expand generation facilities to achieve a low-carbon electricity production system? How can we expand the generation system while ensuring appropriate levels of flexibility to accommodate both demand-related and production-related uncertainties? How can we choose among alternative production facilities? What is the right time to invest in a given production or transmission facility? Written in a tutorial style and modular format, the book includes a wealth of illustrative examples to facilitate comprehension. It is intended for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in the fields of electric energy systems, operations research, management science, and economics. Practitioners in the electric energy sector will also benefit from the concepts and techniques presented here.

This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other's developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.

Sharing accurate and timely supply and demand information throughout a supply chain can yield significant performance improvements to all members of the supply chain. Despite the benefits, many firms are reluctant to share information with their supply chain partners due to an unequal distribution of risks, costs, and benefits among the partners. Thus, incentive mechanisms must be in place to induce communication, cooperation, and collaboration among all members of a supply chain. The issue of Information exchange/sharing has been examined by various researchers over the last 15-20 years. However, there is no research book that compiles various approaches, analyses, key implications, as well as future development of this area. This book will serve as a handbook for researchers who are interested in learning the state of the art of the line of research in this area and explore open research topics in this area. Contributors, all leading researchers, have committed to delivering 18 chapters, broken into four distinct sections covering the Value of Information Sharing, Contracting and Information, Information Signaling, and Incentives for Information Sharing.

This book describes the ontology structure, types of actors, their potential actions, and ways that actions can affect the things that are part of the conflict. An ontology of unconventional conflict supports the understanding of unconventional conflict in general. It also provides a tool for understanding and investigating a particular unconventional conflict. The ontology specifies the relations among the elements and supports creating a description of a particular situation. Unconventional conflict spans the range from natural disasters through human disagreements to irregular warfare (up to conventional war). Unconventional conflict involves damage to things and injuries to people; however, the critical factors are the actions, reactions, and opinions of people, including political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information components. This ontology supports and will appeal to military strategists, political scientists, economists, and politicians in understanding their planning for, and managing of these conflicts.

This book is the eighth volume in a series entitled "Contemporary Logistics in China," authored by researchers from the Logistics Research Center at Nankai University. In the spirit of the seven preceding annual volumes, this book carries on the ideal of providing a systematic exposition on the logistics development in China for the English-speaking community at large. Specially, this volume captures China's logistics development at a crucial turning point. This present report consists of ten chapters, organized into three sections. The introductory section, consisting of three chapters, depicts the current development status of the logistics market, the logistics facilities and technology, and the regional logistics market. The second section addresses the logistics characteristics of four rapidly expanding industries in China-the third-party logistics, the highway logistics, the express logistics, and the multimodal transport. The final section, consisting of three chapters, discusses some hot logistics topics in China. Chapter 8 studies the capital operation in China's logistics industry. The next chapter deals with the development of intelligent logistics in China. The last chapter of this section presents the development of regional logistics along the Belt and Road routes. As with the previous volumes, the ultimate aim of this book is to present a timely portrait of the rapid growth of China's logistics market and the status quo of its logistics industry. In so doing, the book offers an in-depth analysis of critical issues involved in the ongoing dynamic and multi-faceted development, and provides a valuable reference resource for interested readers in the academic and professional fields.

This book promotes and describes the application of objective and effective decision making in asset management based on mathematical models and practical techniques that can be easily implemented in organizations. This comprehensive and timely publication will be an essential reference source, building on available literature in the field of asset management while laying the groundwork for further research breakthroughs in this field. The text provides the resources necessary for managers, technology developers, scientists and engineers to adopt and implement better decision making based on models and techniques that contribute to recognizing risks and uncertainties and, in general terms, to the important role of asset management to increase competitiveness in organizations.

The proceedings volume consists of academic papers on decision-making under uncertainty, smart decision, stochastic optimization, management simulation and its applications. It presents some compelling and valuable results on the cutting-edge modeling methods and the practical case studies in the operations management process for power, transportation, and logistics companies.

Alexander Hubl develops models for production planning and analyzes performance indicators to investigate production system behaviour. He extends existing literature by considering the uncertainty of customer required lead time and processing times as well as by increasing the complexity of multi-machine multi-items production models. Results are on the one hand a decision support system for determining capacity and the further development of the production planning method Conwip. On the other hand, the author develops the JIT intensity and analytically proves the effects of dispatching rules on production lead time.

This book demonstrates the power of neural networks in learning complex behavior from the underlying financial time series data. The results presented also show how neural networks can successfully be applied to volatility modeling, option pricing, and value-at-risk modeling. These features mean that they can be applied to market-risk problems to overcome classic problems associated with statistical models.

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting is a blind refereed serial publication published on an annual basis. The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making. (An accurate, robust forecast is critical to effective decision making.) It is the hope and direction of the research annual to become an applications and practitioner-oriented publication.
The topics will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally-based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models. It is both the hope and direction of the editorial board to stimulate the interest of the practitioners of forecasting to methods and techniques that are relevant.
In Volume 5, there are sections devoted to financial applications of forecasting, as well as demand forecasting. There is, also, a section on general business applications of forecasting, as well as one on forecasting methodologies.
*Presents state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making.
*Publishes annually

This book explores all aspects of the sharing economy, pursuing a multidisciplinary approach encompassing Service Design, Spatial Design, Sociology, Economics, Law, and Transport and Operations Research. The book develops a unified vision of sharing services, and pinpoints the most important new challenges. The first, more theoretical part covers general topics from the perspectives of experts in the respective disciplines. Among the subjects addressed are the role of the user in co-design and co-production; impacts of sharing services on cities, communities, and private spaces; individual rewarding and social outcomes; regulatory issues; and the scope for improving the efficiency of design, management, and analysis of sharing services. In turn, the second part of the book presents a selection of case studies of specific sharing services, in which many of the concepts described in the first part are put into practice. Readers will gain a deeper understanding of the dynamics of sharing services and of the hidden problems that may arise. Key factors responsible for the success (or failure) of sharing services are identified by analyzing some of the best (and worst) practices. Given its breadth of coverage, the book offers a valuable guide for researchers and for all stakeholders in the sharing economy, including startup founders and local administrators.

This book begins with a review of basic results in optimal search for a stationary target. It then develops the theory of optimal search for a moving target, providing algorithms for computing optimal plans and examples of their use. Next it develops methods for computing optimal search plans involving multiple targets and multiple searchers with realistic operational constraints on search movement. These results assume that the target does not react to the search. In the final chapter there is a brief overview of mostly military problems where the target tries to avoid being found as well as rescue or rendezvous problems where the target and the searcher cooperate. Larry Stone wrote his definitive book Theory of Optimal Search in 1975, dealing almost exclusively with the stationary target search problem. Since then the theory has advanced to encompass search for targets that move even as the search proceeds, and computers have developed sufficient capability to employ the improved theory. In this book, Stone joins Royset and Washburn to document and explain this expanded theory of search. The problem of how to search for moving targets arises every day in military, rescue, law enforcement, and border patrol operations.

The book presents a snapshot of the state of the art in the field of fully fuzzy linear programming. The main focus is on showing current methods for finding the fuzzy optimal solution of fully fuzzy linear programming problems in which all the parameters and decision variables are represented by non-negative fuzzy numbers. It presents new methods developed by the authors, as well as existing methods developed by others, and their application to real-world problems, including fuzzy transportation problems. Moreover, it compares the outcomes of the different methods and discusses their advantages/disadvantages. As the first work to collect at one place the most important methods for solving fuzzy linear programming problems, the book represents a useful reference guide for students and researchers, providing them with the necessary theoretical and practical knowledge to deal with linear programming problems under uncertainty.

This is the first book presenting a broad overview of parallelism in constraint-based reasoning formalisms. In recent years, an increasing number of contributions have been made on scaling constraint reasoning thanks to parallel architectures. The goal in this book is to overview these achievements in a concise way, assuming the reader is familiar with the classical, sequential background. It presents work demonstrating the use of multiple resources from single machine multi-core and GPU-based computations to very large scale distributed execution platforms up to 80,000 processing units. The contributions in the book cover the most important and recent contributions in parallel propositional satisfiability (SAT), maximum satisfiability (MaxSAT), quantified Boolean formulas (QBF), satisfiability modulo theory (SMT), theorem proving (TP), answer set programming (ASP), mixed integer linear programming (MILP), constraint programming (CP), stochastic local search (SLS), optimal path finding with A*, model checking for linear-time temporal logic (MC/LTL), binary decision diagrams (BDD), and model-based diagnosis (MBD). The book is suitable for researchers, graduate students, advanced undergraduates, and practitioners who wish to learn about the state of the art in parallel constraint reasoning.

This book offers the first comprehensive and critical literature review of fuzzy pairwise comparison methods derived from methods originally developed for crisp pairwise comparison matrices. It proposes new fuzzy extensions of these methods and provides a detailed study of the differences and analogies between all the reviewed methods, as well as a detailed description of their drawbacks, with the help of many numerical examples. In order to prevent the drawbacks related to the reviewed fuzzy pairwise comparison methods, the book introduces constrained fuzzy arithmetic in fuzzy extension of the pairwise comparison methods. It proposes new fuzzy pairwise comparison methods based on constrained fuzzy arithmetic and critically compares them with the reviewed methods. It describes the application of the newly developed methods to incomplete large-dimensional pairwise comparison matrices showcased in a real-life case study. Written for researchers, graduate and PhD students interested in multi-criteria decision making methods based on both crisp and fuzzy pairwise comparison matrices, this self-contained book offers an overview of cutting-edge research and all necessary information to understand the described tools and use them in real-world applications.

This book discusses recent developments in the vast domain of optimization. Featuring papers presented at the 1st International Conference on Frontiers in Optimization: Theory and Applications (FOTA 2016), held at the Heritage Institute of Technology, Kolkata, on 24-26 December 2016, it opens new avenues of research in all topics related to optimization, such as linear and nonlinear optimization; combinatorial-, stochastic-, dynamic-, fuzzy-, and uncertain optimization; optimal control theory; as well as multi-objective, evolutionary and convex optimization and their applications in intelligent information and technology, systems science, knowledge management, information and communication, supply chain and inventory control, scheduling, networks, transportation and logistics and finance. The book is a valuable resource for researchers, scientists and engineers from both academia and industry.

This edited volume is brought out from the contributions of the research papers presented in the International Conference on Data Science and Business Analytics (ICDSBA- 2017), which was held during September 23-25 2017 in ChangSha, China. As we all know, the field of data science and business analytics is emerging at the intersection of the fields of mathematics, statistics, operations research, information systems, computer science and engineering. Data science and business analytics is an interdisciplinary field about processes and systems to extract knowledge or insights from data. Data science and business analytics employ techniques and theories drawn from many fields including signal processing, probability models, machine learning, statistical learning, data mining, database, data engineering, pattern recognition, visualization, descriptive analytics, predictive analytics, prescriptive analytics, uncertainty modeling, big data, data warehousing, data compression, computer programming, business intelligence, computational intelligence, and high performance computing among others. The volume contains 55 contributions from diverse areas of Data Science and Business Analytics, which has been categorized into five sections, namely: i) Marketing and Supply Chain Analytics; ii) Logistics and Operations Analytics; iii) Financial Analytics. iv) Predictive Modeling and Data Analytics; v) Communications and Information Systems Analytics. The readers shall not only receive the theoretical knowledge about this upcoming area but also cutting edge applications of this domains.

This book reports on practical approaches for facilitating the process of achieving excellence in the management and leadership of organizational resources. It shows how the principles of creating shared value can be applied to ensure faster learning, training, business development, and social renewal. In particular, the book presents novel methods and tools for tackling the complexity of management and learning in both business organizations and society. It covers ontologies, intelligent management systems, methods for creating knowledge and value added. It gives novel insights into time management and operations optimization, as well as advanced methods for evaluating customers' satisfaction and conscious experience. Based on two conferences, the AHFE 2017 International Conference on Human Factors, Business Management and Society and the AHFE 2017 International Conference on Human Factors in Management and Leadership, held on July 17-21, 2017, in Los Angeles, California, USA, the book provides both researchers and professionals with new tools and inspiring ideas for achieving excellence in various business activities.