Risk Measures and Insurance Solvency Benchmarks: Fixed-Probability Levels in Renewal Risk Models is written for academics and practitioners who are concerned about potential weaknesses of the Solvency II regulatory system. It is also intended for readers who are interested in pure and applied probability, have a taste for classical and asymptotic analysis, and are motivated to delve into rather intensive calculations. The formal prerequisite for this book is a good background in analysis. The desired prerequisite is some degree of probability training, but someone with knowledge of the classical real-variable theory, including asymptotic methods, will also find this book interesting. For those who find the proofs too complicated, it may be reassuring that most results in this book are formulated in rather elementary terms. This book can also be used as reading material for basic courses in risk measures, insurance mathematics, and applied probability. The material of this book was partly used by the author for his courses in several universities in Moscow, Copenhagen University, and in the University of Montreal. Features Requires only minimal mathematical prerequisites in analysis and probability Suitable for researchers and postgraduate students in related fields Could be used as a supplement to courses in risk measures, insurance mathematics and applied probability.

This monograph provides a careful review of the major statistical techniques used to analyze regression data with nonconstant variability and skewness. The authors have developed statistical techniques--such as formal fitting methods and less formal graphical techniques-- that can be applied to many problems across a range of disciplines, including pharmacokinetics, econometrics, biochemical assays, and fisheries research.

While the main focus of the book in on data transformation and weighting, it also draws upon ideas from diverse fields such as influence diagnostics, robustness, bootstrapping, nonparametric data smoothing, quasi-likelihood methods, errors-in-variables, and random coefficients. The authors discuss the computation of estimates and give numerous examples using real data. The book also includes an extensive treatment of estimating variance functions in regression.

Many experiments have shown the human brain generally has very serious problems dealing with probability and chance. A greater understanding of probability can help develop the intuition necessary to approach risk with the ability to make more informed (and better) decisions. The first four chapters offer the standard content for an introductory probability course, albeit presented in a much different way and order. The chapters afterward include some discussion of different games, different "ideas" that relate to the law of large numbers, and many more mathematical topics not typically seen in such a book. The use of games is meant to make the book (and course) feel like fun! Since many of the early games discussed are casino games, the study of those games, along with an understanding of the material in later chapters, should remind you that gambling is a bad idea; you should think of placing bets in a casino as paying for entertainment. Winning can, obviously, be a fun reward, but should not ever be expected. Changes for the Second Edition: New chapter on Game Theory New chapter on Sports Mathematics The chapter on Blackjack, which was Chapter 4 in the first edition, appears later in the book. Reorganization has been done to improve the flow of topics and learning. New sections on Arkham Horror, Uno, and Scrabble have been added. Even more exercises were added! The goal for this textbook is to complement the inquiry-based learning movement. In my mind, concepts and ideas will stick with the reader more when they are motivated in an interesting way. Here, we use questions about various games (not just casino games) to motivate the mathematics, and I would say that the writing emphasizes a "just-in-time" mathematics approach. Topics are presented mathematically as questions about the games themselves are posed. Table of Contents Preface 1. Mathematics and Probability 2. Roulette and Craps: Expected Value 3. Counting: Poker Hands 4. More Dice: Counting and Combinations, and Statistics 5. Game Theory: Poker Bluffing and Other Games 6. Probability/Stochastic Matrices: Board Game Movement 7. Sports Mathematics: Probability Meets Athletics 8. Blackjack: Previous Methods Revisited 9. A Mix of Other Games 10. Betting Systems: Can You Beat the System? 11. Potpourri: Assorted Adventures in Probability Appendices Tables Answers and Selected Solutions Bibliography Biography Dr. David G. Taylor is a professor of mathematics and an associate dean for academic affairs at Roanoke College in southwest Virginia. He attended Lebanon Valley College for his B.S. in computer science and mathematics and went to the University of Virginia for his Ph.D. While his graduate school focus was on studying infinite dimensional Lie algebras, he started studying the mathematics of various games in order to have a more undergraduate-friendly research agenda. Work done with two Roanoke College students, Heather Cook and Jonathan Marino, appears in this book! Currently he owns over 100 different board games and enjoys using probability in his decision-making while playing most of those games. In his spare time, he enjoys reading, cooking, coding, playing his board games, and spending time with his six-year-old dog Lilly.

This book describes methods for statistical brain imaging data analysis from both the perspective of methodology and from the standpoint of application for software implementation in neuroscience research. These include those both commonly used (traditional established) and state of the art methods. The former is easier to do due to the availability of appropriate software. To understand the methods it is necessary to have some mathematical knowledge which is explained in the book with the help of figures and descriptions of the theory behind the software. In addition, the book includes numerical examples to guide readers on the working of existing popular software. The use of mathematics is reduced and simplified for non-experts using established methods, which also helps in avoiding mistakes in application and interpretation. Finally, the book enables the reader to understand and conceptualize the overall flow of brain imaging data analysis, particularly for statisticians and data-scientists unfamiliar with this area. The state of the art method described in the book has a multivariate approach developed by the authors' team. Since brain imaging data, generally, has a highly correlated and complex structure with large amounts of data, categorized into big data, the multivariate approach can be used as dimension reduction by following the application of statistical methods. The R package for most of the methods described is provided in the book. Understanding the background theory is helpful in implementing the software for original and creative applications and for an unbiased interpretation of the output. The book also explains new methods in a conceptual manner. These methodologies and packages are commonly applied in life science data analysis. Advanced methods to obtain novel insights are introduced, thereby encouraging the development of new methods and applications for research into medicine as a neuroscience.

Learn How to Infuse Leadership into Your Passion for Scientific Research Leadership and Women in Statistics explores the role of statisticians as leaders, with particular attention to women statisticians as leaders. By paying special attention to women's issues, this book provides a clear vision for the future of women as leaders in scientific and technical fields. It also shows how emerging and current leaders of both genders in many disciplines can expand their leadership potentials. Featuring contributions from leadership experts and statisticians at various career stages, this unique and insightful text: Examines leadership within the roles of statistician and data scientist from international and diverse perspectives Supplies a greater understanding of leadership within teams, research consulting, and project management Encourages reflection on leadership behaviors, promoting both natural and organizational leadership Identifies existing opportunities to foster creative outputs and develop strong leadership voices Includes real-life stories about overcoming barriers to leadership Leadership and Women in Statistics explains how to convert a passion for statistical science into visionary, ethical, and transformational leadership. Although the context focuses on statistics, the material applies to almost all fields of endeavor. This book is a valuable resource for those ready to consider leadership as an important element of their careers, and for those who are already leaders but want to deepen their perspectives on leadership. It makes an ideal text for group leadership training as well as for individual professional development.

Access US Census Bureau geographic and demographic data directly within R. Wrangle Census data with tidyverse tools and work with margins of error in the American Community Survey. Make maps and interactive web visualizations with US Census data. Explore Census data with spatial analysis using the sf package. Integrate Census data into spatial and machine learning models.

The book describes the theoretical principles of nonstatistical methods of data analysis but without going deep into complex mathematics. The emphasis is laid on presentation of solved examples of real data either from authors' laboratories or from open literature. The examples cover wide range of applications such as quality assurance and quality control, critical analysis of experimental data, comparison of data samples from various sources, robust linear and nonlinear regression as well as various tasks from financial analysis. The examples are useful primarily for chemical engineers including analytical/quality laboratories in industry, designers of chemical and biological processes. Features: Exclusive title on Mathematical Gnostics with multidisciplinary applications, and specific focus on chemical engineering. Clarifies the role of data space metrics including the right way of aggregation of uncertain data. Brings a new look on the data probability, information, entropy and thermodynamics of data uncertainty. Enables design of probability distributions for all real data samples including smaller ones. Includes data for examples with solutions with exercises in R or Python. The book is aimed for Senior Undergraduate Students, Researchers, and Professionals in Chemical/Process Engineering, Engineering Physics, Stats, Mathematics, Materials, Geotechnical, Civil Engineering, Mining, Sales, Marketing and Service, and Finance.

- Analyses real data sets from start to conclusion. - Includes an extensive set of examples of the use of R to construct graphs and maps and to model and analyze spatial data. - Provides background information on exploratory and graphical data analysis and on spatial econometrics methods. - Lists the possible types of spatial data used to analyze and model agriculture economics phenomena (and offers several codes for each example in the R software environment). - Presents the methods of spatial data analysis and of spatial econometric modeling appropriate for each agricultural data type. - Examines how each spatial data type can be used to explore spatial structures and how the spatial effects can be properly added to agricultural economics models. - Outlines methods for model estimation when data is not available for the whole population but for a sample survey. - Illustrates the simplest and more sophisticated methods both to convert data from one type to another and to integrate different spatial data sources.

Although there has been a surge of interest in density estimation in recent years, much of the published research has been concerned with purely technical matters with insufficient emphasis given to the technique's practical value. Furthermore, the subject has been rather inaccessible to the general statistician.

The account presented in this book places emphasis on topics of methodological importance, in the hope that this will facilitate broader practical application of density estimation and also encourage research into relevant theoretical work. The book also provides an introduction to the subject for those with general interests in statistics. The important role of density estimation as a graphical technique is reflected by the inclusion of more than 50 graphs and figures throughout the text.

Several contexts in which density estimation can be used are discussed, including the exploration and presentation of data, nonparametric discriminant analysis, cluster analysis, simulation and the bootstrap, bump hunting, projection pursuit, and the estimation of hazard rates and other quantities that depend on the density. This book includes general survey of methods available for density estimation. The Kernel method, both for univariate and multivariate data, is discussed in detail, with particular emphasis on ways of deciding how much to smooth and on computation aspects. Attention is also given to adaptive methods, which smooth to a greater degree in the tails of the distribution, and to methods based on the idea of penalized likelihood.

Features Provides a uniquely historical perspective on the mathematical underpinnings of a comprehensive list of games Suitable for a broad audience of differing mathematical levels. Anyone with a passion for games, game theory, and mathematics will enjoy this book, whether they be students, academics, or game enthusiasts Covers a wide selection of topics at a level that can be appreciated on a historical, recreational, and mathematical level.

Making decisions is a ubiquitous mental activity in our private and professional or public lives. It entails choosing one course of action from an available shortlist of options. Statistics for Making Decisions places decision making at the centre of statistical inference, proposing its theory as a new paradigm for statistical practice. The analysis in this paradigm is earnest about prior information and the consequences of the various kinds of errors that may be committed. Its conclusion is a course of action tailored to the perspective of the specific client or sponsor of the analysis. The author's intention is a wholesale replacement of hypothesis testing, indicting it with the argument that it has no means of incorporating the consequences of errors which self-evidently matter to the client. The volume appeals to the analyst who deals with the simplest statistical problems of comparing two samples (which one has a greater mean or variance), or deciding whether a parameter is positive or negative. It combines highlighting the deficiencies of hypothesis testing with promoting a principled solution based on the idea of a currency for error, of which we want to spend as little as possible. This is implemented by selecting the option for which the expected loss is smallest (the Bayes rule). The price to pay is the need for a more detailed description of the options, and eliciting and quantifying the consequences (ramifications) of the errors. This is what our clients do informally and often inexpertly after receiving outputs of the analysis in an established format, such as the verdict of a hypothesis test or an estimate and its standard error. As a scientific discipline and profession, statistics has a potential to do this much better and deliver to the client a more complete and more relevant product. Nicholas T. Longford is a senior statistician at Imperial College, London, specialising in statistical methods for neonatal medicine. His interests include causal analysis of observational studies, decision theory, and the contest of modelling and design in data analysis. His longer-term appointments in the past include Educational Testing Service, Princeton, NJ, USA, de Montfort University, Leicester, England, and directorship of SNTL, a statistics research and consulting company. He is the author of over 100 journal articles and six other monographs on a variety of topics in applied statistics.

Emphasizing concepts rather than recipes, An Introduction to Statistical Inference and Its Applications with R provides a clear exposition of the methods of statistical inference for students who are comfortable with mathematical notation. Numerous examples, case studies, and exercises are included. R is used to simplify computation, create figures, and draw pseudorandom samples-not to perform entire analyses. After discussing the importance of chance in experimentation, the text develops basic tools of probability. The plug-in principle then provides a transition from populations to samples, motivating a variety of summary statistics and diagnostic techniques. The heart of the text is a careful exposition of point estimation, hypothesis testing, and confidence intervals. The author then explains procedures for 1- and 2-sample location problems, analysis of variance, goodness-of-fit, and correlation and regression. He concludes by discussing the role of simulation in modern statistical inference. Focusing on the assumptions that underlie popular statistical methods, this textbook explains how and why these methods are used to analyze experimental data.

* Innovative clinical trial design * Regulatory approval * Real world evidence

This text presents a wide variety of common types of models found in other mathematical modeling texts, as well as some new types. However, the models are presented in a very unique format. A typical section begins with a general description of the scenario being modeled. The model is then built using the appropriate mathematical tools. Then it is implemented and analyzed in Excel via step-by-step instructions. In the exercises, we ask students to modify or refine the existing model, analyze it further, or adapt it to similar scenarios.

Behavioural Economics and Terrorism can be used as a guide to help us think about thinking and, in doing so, to appreciate the deep quirkiness of human behaviour. Each day, people draw on their understanding of human behaviour. This takes place subconsciously for the most part but as situations become more complex it becomes necessary to think more deliberately about how people make their decisions. This book can be used to better understand human action in such contexts. In the high-stakes world of counter-terrorism, every angle of advantage is critical. From terrorists' operational choices to the way that information flows through intelligence agencies, the book explains the patterns of behaviour that systematically shape human decision-making, for good and for bad. Decision-makers' use of reference points, their loss aversion, overconfidence, goals and aspirations all shape their choices under conditions of risk and uncertainty. This book helps to shed light on how to use these concepts (and more) to develop deeper insights into the way in which terrorists think about their attack methods and targets.

Operation Research methods are often used in every field of modern life like industry, economy and medicine. The authors have compiled of the latest advancements in these methods in this volume comprising some of what is considered the best collection of these new approaches. These can be counted as a direct shortcut to what you may search for. This book provides useful applications of the new developments in OR written by leading scientists from some international universities. Another volume about exciting applications of Operations Research is planned in the near future. We hope you enjoy and benefit from this series!

* Starts from the basics, focusing less on proofs and the high-level math underlying regressions, and adopts an engaging tone to provide a text which is entirely accessible to students who don't have a stats background * New chapter on integrity and ethics in regression analysis * Each chapter offers boxed examples, stories, exercises and clear summaries, all of which are designed to support student learning * Optional appendix of statistical tools, providing a primer to readers who need it * Code in R and Stata, and data sets and exercises in Stata and CSV, to allow students to practice running their own regressions * Author-created videos on YouTube * PPT lecture slides and test bank for instructors

Lluis Barbe has recreated the background and life of Francis Ysidro Edgeworth through a fascinating reconstruction that succeeds in shaping the first detailed biography ever published of this major economist and statistician.Originating from previously unexplored letters and documents stored in archives and registers in Ireland, England and Catalonia, Edgeworth?s relationships with his academic fellows ? including Sully, Jevons, Marshall, Galton, Pearson, Walras, Pantaleoni, Fisher, Pareto, Keynes ? are meticulously depicted. Stemming from undiscovered primary sources, this book also reveals a detailed insight into the academic world of the period 1875?1925 in the fields of economics and statistics.With a descriptive survey of Edgeworth?s work, this book will prove a captivating read for academics and postgraduate students in economic analysis, the history of economic thought and the history of statistics. Anyone with an interest in Francis Ysidro Edgeworth?s life should also read this book.

Utilizes data driven examples and exercises. Emphasizes the iterative model building and evaluation process. Surveys an interconnected range of multivariable regression and classification models. Presents fundamental Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques for Bayesian models.

Integrating interesting and widely used concepts of financial engineering into traditional statistics courses, Introduction to Probability and Statistics for Science, Engineering, and Finance illustrates the role and scope of statistics and probability in various fields. The text first introduces the basics needed to understand and create tables and graphs produced by standard statistical software packages, such as Minitab, SAS, and JMP. It then takes students through the traditional topics of a first course in statistics. Novel features include: Applications of standard statistical concepts and methods to the analysis and interpretation of financial data, such as risks and returns Cox-Ross-Rubinstein (CRR) model, also called the binomial lattice model, of stock price fluctuations An application of the central limit theorem to the CRR model that yields the lognormal distribution for stock prices and the famous Black-Scholes option pricing formula An introduction to modern portfolio theory Mean-standard deviation diagram of a collection of portfolios Computing a stock's betavia simple linear regression As soon as he develops the statistical concepts, the author presents applications to engineering, such as queuing theory, reliability theory, and acceptance sampling; computer science; public health; and finance. Using both statistical software packages and scientific calculators, he reinforces fundamental concepts with numerous examples.

The growth of the pharmaceutical industry over the past decade is astounding, but the impact of this growth on statistics is somewhat confusing. While software has made analysis easier and more efficient, regulatory bodies now demand deeper and more complex analyses, and pharmacogenetic/genomic studies serve up an entirely new set of challenges. For more than two decades, Statistics in the Pharmaceutical Industry has been the definitive guide to sorting through the challenges in the industry, and this Third Edition continues that tradition. Updated and expanded to reflect the most recent trends and developments in the field, Statistics in the Pharmaceutical Industry, Third Edition presents chapters written by experts from both regulatory agencies and pharmaceutical companies who discuss everything from experimental design to post-marketing studies. This approach sheds light on what regulators consider acceptable methodologies and what methods have proven successful for industrial statisticians. Both new and revised chapters reflect the increasingly global nature of the industry as represented by authors from Japan and Europe, the increasing trend toward non-inferiority/equivalence testing, adaptive design in clinical trials, global harmonization of regulatory standards, and multiple comparison studies. The book also examines the latest considerations in anti-cancer studies. Statistics in the Pharmaceutical Industry, Third Edition demystifies the approval process by combining regulatory and industrial points of view, making it a must-read for anyone performing statistical analysis at any point in the drug approval process.

The last two decades have seen enormous developments in statistical methods for incomplete data. The EM algorithm and its extensions, multiple imputation, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo provide a set of flexible and reliable tools from inference in large classes of missing-data problems. Yet, in practical terms, those developments have had surprisingly little impact on the way most data analysts handle missing values on a routine basis. Analysis of Incomplete Multivariate Data helps bridge the gap between theory and practice, making these missing-data tools accessible to a broad audience. It presents a unified, Bayesian approach to the analysis of incomplete multivariate data, covering datasets in which the variables are continuous, categorical, or both. The focus is applied, where necessary, to help readers thoroughly understand the statistical properties of those methods, and the behavior of the accompanying algorithms. All techniques are illustrated with real data examples, with extended discussion and practical advice. All of the algorithms described in this book have been implemented by the author for general use in the statistical languages S and S Plus. The software is available free of charge on the Internet.

This book is for those interested in number systems, abstract algebra, and analysis. It provides an understanding of negative and fractional numbers with theoretical background and explains rationale of irrational and complex numbers in an easy to understand format. This book covers the fundamentals, proof of theorems, examples, definitions, and concepts. It explains the theory in an easy and understandable manner and offers problems for understanding and extensions of concept are included. The book provides concepts in other fields and includes an understanding of handling of numbers by computers. Research scholars and students working in the fields of engineering, science, and different branches of mathematics will find this book of interest, as it provides the subject in a clear and concise way.

The second book in a set of ten on quantitative finance for practitioners Presents the theory needed to better understand applications Supplements previous training in mathematics Built from the author's four decades of experience in industry, research, and teaching

Simply stated, this book bridges the gap between statistics and philosophy. It does this by delineating the conceptual cores of various statistical methodologies (Bayesian/frequentist statistics, model selection, machine learning, causal inference, etc.) and drawing out their philosophical implications. Portraying statistical inference as an epistemic endeavor to justify hypotheses about a probabilistic model of a given empirical problem, the book explains the role of ontological, semantic, and epistemological assumptions that make such inductive inference possible. From this perspective, various statistical methodologies are characterized by their epistemological nature: Bayesian statistics by internalist epistemology, classical statistics by externalist epistemology, model selection by pragmatist epistemology, and deep learning by virtue epistemology. Another highlight of the book is its analysis of the ontological assumptions that underpin statistical reasoning, such as the uniformity of nature, natural kinds, real patterns, possible worlds, causal structures, etc. Moreover, recent developments in deep learning indicate that machines are carving out their own "ontology" (representations) from data, and better understanding this-a key objective of the book-is crucial for improving these machines' performance and intelligibility. Key Features Without assuming any prior knowledge of statistics, discusses philosophical aspects of traditional as well as cutting-edge statistical methodologies. Draws parallels between various methods of statistics and philosophical epistemology, revealing previously ignored connections between the two disciplines. Written for students, researchers, and professionals in a wide range of fields, including philosophy, biology, medicine, statistics and other social sciences, and business. Originally published in Japanese with widespread success, has been translated into English by the author.