This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations. The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity, population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models. The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.

A well-balanced and accessible introduction to the elementary quantitative methods and Microsoft(R) Office Excel(R) applications used to guide business decision making Featuring quantitative techniques essential for modeling modern business situations, Introduction to Quantitative Methods in Business: With Applications Using Microsoft(R) Office Excel(R) provides guidance to assessing real-world data sets using Excel. The book presents a balanced approach to the mathematical tools and techniques with applications used in the areas of business, finance, economics, marketing, and operations. The authors begin by establishing a solid foundation of basic mathematics and statistics before moving on to more advanced concepts. The first part of the book starts by developing basic quantitative techniques such as arithmetic operations, functions and graphs, and elementary differentiations (rates of change), and integration. After a review of these techniques, the second part details both linear and nonlinear models of business activity. Extensively classroom-tested, Introduction to Quantitative Methods in Business: With Applications Using Microsoft(R) Office Excel(R) also includes: * Numerous examples and practice problems that emphasize real-world business quantitative techniques and applications * Excel-based computer software routines that explore calculations for an assortment of tasks, including graphing, formula usage, solving equations, and data analysis * End-of-chapter sections detailing the Excel applications and techniques used to address data and solutions using large data sets * A companion website that includes chapter summaries, Excel data sets, sample exams and quizzes, lecture slides, and an Instructors Solutions Manual Introduction to Quantitative Methods in Business: With Applications Using Microsoft(R) Office Excel(R) is an excellent textbook for undergraduate-level courses on quantitative methods in business, economics, finance, marketing, operations, and statistics. The book is also an ideal reference for readers with little or no quantitative background who require a better understanding of basic mathematical and statistical concepts used in economics and business. Bharat Kolluri, Ph.D., is Professor of Economics in the Department of Economics, Finance, and Insurance at the University of Hartford. A member of the American Economics Association, his research interests include econometrics, business statistics, quantitative decision making, applied macroeconomics, applied microeconomics, and corporate finance. Michael J. Panik, Ph.D., is Professor Emeritus in the Department of Economics, Finance, and Insurance at the University of Hartford. He has served as a consultant to the Connecticut Department of Motor Vehicles as well as to a variety of health care organizations. In addition, Dr. Panik is the author of numerous books, including Growth Curve Modeling: Theory and Applications and Statistical Inference: A Short Course, both published by Wiley. Rao N. Singamsetti, Ph.D., is Associate Professor in the Department of Economics, Finance, and Insurance at the University of Hartford. A member of the American Economics Association, his research interests include the status of war on poverty in the United States since the 1960s and forecasting foreign exchange rates using econometric methods.

There is more statistical data produced in today's modern society than ever before. This data is analysed and cross-referenced for innumerable reasons. However, many data sets have no shared element and are harder to combine and therefore obtain any meaningful inference from. Statistical matching allows just that; it is the art of combining information from different sources (particularly sample surveys) that contain no common unit. In response to modern influxes of data, it is an area of rapidly growing interest and complexity. "Statistical Matching: Theory and Practice" introduces the basics of statistical matching, before going on to offer a detailed, up-to-date overview of the methods used and an examination of their practical applications. Presents a unified framework for both theoretical and practical aspects of statistical matching. Provides a detailed description covering all the steps needed to perform statistical matching. Contains a critical overview of the available statistical matching methods. Discusses all the major issues in detail, such as the Conditional Independence Assumption and the assessment of uncertainty. Includes numerous examples and applications, enabling the reader to apply the methods in their own work. Features an appendix detailing algorithms written in the R language.

"Statistical Matching: Theory and Practice" presents a comprehensive exploration of an increasingly important area. Ideal for researchers in national statistics institutes and applied statisticians, it will also prove to be an invaluable text for scientists and researchers from all disciplines engaged in the multivariate analysis of data collected from different sources.

This book integrates multiple criteria concepts and methods for problems within the Risk, Reliability and Maintenance (RRM) context. The concepts and foundations related to RRM are considered for this integration with multicriteria approaches. In the book, a general framework for building decision models is presented and this is illustrated in various chapters by discussing many different decision models related to the RRM context. The scope of the book is related to ways of how to integrate Applied Probability and Decision Making. In Applied Probability, this mainly includes: decision analysis and reliability theory, amongst other topics closely related to risk analysis and maintenance. In Decision Making, it includes a broad range of topics in MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) and MCDA (Multi-Criteria Decision Aiding; also known as Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis). In addition to decision analysis, some of the topics related to Mathematical Programming area are briefly considered, such as multiobjective optimization, since methods related to these topics have been applied to the context of RRM. The book addresses an innovative treatment for the decision making in RRM, thereby improving the integration of fundamental concepts from the areas of both RRM and decision making. This is accomplished by presenting an overview of the literature on decision making in RRM. Some pitfalls of decision models when applying them to RRM in practice are discussed and guidance on overcoming these drawbacks is offered. The procedure enables multicriteria models to be built for the RRM context, including guidance on choosing an appropriate multicriteria method for a particular problem faced in the RRM context. The book also includes many research advances in these topics. Most of the multicriteria decision models that are described are specific applications that have been influenced by this research and the advances in this field. Multicriteria and Multiobjective Models for Risk, Reliability and Maintenance Decision Analysis is implicitly structured in three parts, with 12 chapters. The first part deals with MCDM/A concepts methods and decision processes. The second part presents the main concepts and foundations of RRM. Finally the third part deals with specific decision problems in the RRM context approached with MCDM/A models.

This unified volume is a collection of invited chapters presenting recent developments in the field of data analysis, with applications to reliability and inference, data mining, bioinformatics, lifetime data, and neural networks. The book is a useful reference for graduate students, researchers, and practitioners in statistics, mathematics, engineering, economics, social science, bioengineering, and bioscience.

This book explores various renewal processes in the context of probability theory, uncertainty theory and chance theory. It also covers the applications of these renewal processes in maintenance models and insurance risk models. The methods used to derive the limit of the renewal rate, the reward rate, and the availability rate are of particular interest, as they can easily be extended to the derivation of other models. Its comprehensive and systematic treatment of renewal processes, renewal reward processes and the alternating renewal process is one of the book's major features, making it particularly valuable for readers who are interested in learning about renewal theory. Given its scope, the book will benefit researchers, engineers, and graduate students in the fields of mathematics, information science, operations research, industrial engineering, etc.

This book provides a basic grounding in the use of probability to model random financial phenomena of uncertainty, and is targeted at an advanced undergraduate and graduate level. It should appeal to finance students looking for a firm theoretical guide to the deep end of derivatives and investments. Bankers and finance professionals in the fields of investments, derivatives, and risk management should also find the book useful in bringing probability and finance together. The book contains applications of both discrete time theory and continuous time mathematics, and is extensive in scope. Distribution theory, conditional probability, and conditional expectation are covered comprehensively, and applications to modeling state space securities under market equilibrium are made. Martingale is studied, leading to consideration of equivalent martingale measures, fundamental theorems of asset pricing, change of numeraire and discounting, risk-adjusted and forward-neutral measures, minimal and maximal prices of contingent claims, Markovian models, and the existence of martingale measures preserving the Markov property. Discrete stochastic calculus and multiperiod models leading to no-arbitrage pricing of contingent claims are also to be found in this book, as well as the theory of Markov Chains and appropriate applications in credit modeling. Measure-theoretic probability, moments, characteristic functions, inequalities, and central limit theorems are examined. The theory of risk aversion and utility, and ideas of risk premia are considered. Other application topics include optimal consumption and investment problems and interest rate theory.

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

Statistical reasoning and modeling are of critical importance to modern biology. This textbook introduces fundamental concepts from probability and statistics which will pave the way for the student of biology to become a well-rounded scientist. No previous study of probability or statistics is assumed. Calculus topics are not used extensively in this book, though some integration and differentiation are expected. The calculus prerequisite is primarily intended to assure a certain level of mathematical maturity. This book puts emphasis on examples, which are presented to motivate the theory. The presentation style is concise and self-contained, briefly including the mathematical elements that are needed for studying probability and statistics. The examples are relevant to students in the life sciences with interests in genetics, biology, ecology, health, etc. We believe that aspects of probability theory are of biological interest and that probability underlies the theory of inferential statistics. Thus, we place an equal emphasis on probability and statistics which are both essential for solving and understanding many types of biological problems.

This is the revised and enlarged 2nd edition of the authors' original text, which was intended to be a modest complement to Grenander's fundamental memoir on stochastic processes and related inference theory. The present volume gives a substantial account of regression analysis, both for stochastic processes and measures, and includes recent material on Ridge regression with some unexpected applications, for example in econometrics. The first three chapters can be used for a quarter or semester graduate course on inference on stochastic processes. The remaining chapters provide more advanced material on stochastic analysis suitable for graduate seminars and discussions, leading to dissertation or research work. In general, the book will be of interest to researchers in probability theory, mathematical statistics and electrical and information theory.

The systematic study of existence, uniqueness, and properties of solutions to stochastic differential equations in infinite dimensions arising from practical problems characterizes this volume that is intended for graduate students and for pure and applied mathematicians, physicists, engineers, professionals working with mathematical models of finance. Major methods include compactness, coercivity, monotonicity, in a variety of set-ups. The authors emphasize the fundamental work of Gikhman and Skorokhod on the existence and uniqueness of solutions to stochastic differential equations and present its extension to infinite dimension. They also generalize the work of Khasminskii on stability and stationary distributions of solutions. New results, applications, and examples of stochastic partial differential equations are included. This clear and detailed presentation gives the basics of the infinite dimensional version of the classic books of Gikhman and Skorokhod and of Khasminskii in one concise volume that covers the main topics in infinite dimensional stochastic PDE's. By appropriate selection of material, the volume can be adapted for a 1- or 2-semester course, and can prepare the reader for research in this rapidly expanding area.

This book is devoted to Professor Jurgen Lehn, who passed away on September 29, 2008, at the age of 67. It contains invited papers that were presented at the Wo- shop on Recent Developments in Applied Probability and Statistics Dedicated to the Memory of Professor Jurgen Lehn, Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara, April 23-24, 2009, which was jointly organized by the Technische Univ- sitat Darmstadt (TUD) and METU. The papers present surveys on recent devel- ments in the area of applied probability and statistics. In addition, papers from the Panel Discussion: Impact of Mathematics in Science, Technology and Economics are included. Jurgen Lehn was born on the 28th of April, 1941 in Karlsruhe. From 1961 to 1968 he studied mathematics in Freiburg and Karlsruhe, and obtained a Diploma in Mathematics from the University of Karlsruhe in 1968. He obtained his Ph.D. at the University of Regensburg in 1972, and his Habilitation at the University of Karlsruhe in 1978. Later in 1978, he became a C3 level professor of Mathematical Statistics at the University of Marburg. In 1980 he was promoted to a C4 level professorship in mathematics at the TUD where he was a researcher until his death."

This book describes methods for designing and analyzing experiments that are conducted using a computer code, a computer experiment, and, when possible, a physical experiment. Computer experiments continue to increase in popularity as surrogates for and adjuncts to physical experiments. Since the publication of the first edition, there have been many methodological advances and software developments to implement these new methodologies. The computer experiments literature has emphasized the construction of algorithms for various data analysis tasks (design construction, prediction, sensitivity analysis, calibration among others), and the development of web-based repositories of designs for immediate application. While it is written at a level that is accessible to readers with Masters-level training in Statistics, the book is written in sufficient detail to be useful for practitioners and researchers. New to this revised and expanded edition: * An expanded presentation of basic material on computer experiments and Gaussian processes with additional simulations and examples * A new comparison of plug-in prediction methodologies for real-valued simulator output * An enlarged discussion of space-filling designs including Latin Hypercube designs (LHDs), near-orthogonal designs, and nonrectangular regions * A chapter length description of process-based designs for optimization, to improve good overall fit, quantile estimation, and Pareto optimization * A new chapter describing graphical and numerical sensitivity analysis tools * Substantial new material on calibration-based prediction and inference for calibration parameters * Lists of software that can be used to fit models discussed in the book to aid practitioners

This book presents the theory of order statistics in a way, such that beginners can get easily acquainted with the very basis of the theory without having to work through heavily involved techniques. At the same time more experienced readers can check their level of understanding and polish their knowledge with certain details. This is achieved by, on the one hand, stating the basic formulae and providing many useful examples to illustrate the theoretical statements, while on the other hand an upgraded list of references will make it easier to gain insight into more specialized results. Thus this book is suitable for a readership working in statistics, actuarial mathematics, reliability engineering, meteorology, hydrology, business economics, sports analysis and many more.

Contributions in this volume focus on computationally efficient algorithms and rigorous mathematical theories for analyzing large-scale networks. Researchers and students in mathematics, economics, statistics, computer science and engineering will find this collection a valuable resource filled with the latest research in network analysis. Computational aspects and applications of large-scale networks in market models, neural networks, social networks, power transmission grids, maximum clique problem, telecommunication networks, and complexity graphs are included with new tools for efficient network analysis of large-scale networks. This proceeding is a result of the 7th International Conference in Network Analysis, held at the Higher School of Economics, Nizhny Novgorod in June 2017. The conference brought together scientists, engineers, and researchers from academia, industry, and government.

This monograph is a unified presentation of several theories of finding explicit formulas for heat kernels for both elliptic and sub-elliptic operators. These kernels are important in the theory of parabolic operators because they describe the distribution of heat on a given manifold as well as evolution phenomena and diffusion processes.
Heat Kernels for Elliptic and Sub-elliptic Operators is an ideal reference for graduate students, researchers in pure and applied mathematics, and theoretical physicists interested in understanding different ways of approaching evolution operators.

This book provides a generalised approach to fractal dimension theory from the standpoint of asymmetric topology by employing the concept of a fractal structure. The fractal dimension is the main invariant of a fractal set, and provides useful information regarding the irregularities it presents when examined at a suitable level of detail. New theoretical models for calculating the fractal dimension of any subset with respect to a fractal structure are posed to generalise both the Hausdorff and box-counting dimensions. Some specific results for self-similar sets are also proved. Unlike classical fractal dimensions, these new models can be used with empirical applications of fractal dimension including non-Euclidean contexts. In addition, the book applies these fractal dimensions to explore long-memory in financial markets. In particular, novel results linking both fractal dimension and the Hurst exponent are provided. As such, the book provides a number of algorithms for properly calculating the self-similarity exponent of a wide range of processes, including (fractional) Brownian motion and Levy stable processes. The algorithms also make it possible to analyse long-memory in real stocks and international indexes. This book is addressed to those researchers interested in fractal geometry, self-similarity patterns, and computational applications involving fractal dimension and Hurst exponent.

Hardbound. A comprehensive reference work for teaching at graduate level and research in empirical finance. The chapters cover a wide range of statistical and probabilistic methods applied to a variety of financial methods and are written by internationally renowned experts.

Written for corporate strategic planners and market researchers as well as students of management, this book offers the most complete introduction to the methodology and applications of ordinal time series analysis available in book form. Particularly useful for managers who seek a reliable and accessible means of analyzing the strategic performance of firms, products, industries, or political entities, the ordinal time series approach uses simple data, longitudinal analysis, and rank positions to produce results that more accurately reflect the dynamics of competitive position and corporate performance than those generated by more traditional methods which rely on absolute numbers and complicated analyses. The level of mathematical sophistication required is that of college introductory mathematics for business, making the methodology widely accessible. The contributors explain how to use the methodology and how to collect the appropriate data, review the statistical procedures involved, and examine numerous real-world applications of ordinal time series analysis. The book begins by introducing the notion of formalizing managerial intuition about strategic situations by employing rankings over time to describe the performance of products, firms, and departments, for example. Having established the advantages of using ordinal data, the contributors illustrate the use of rank statistics and show how to incorporate uncertain aspects of strategic situations in an ordinal context. A separate chapter covers information statistics that describe the aggregate behavior of a group of organizations over time. The contributors then present a series of examples demonstrating the wide applicabilityof ordinal time series analysis to various types of situations. Included are an analysis of the transportation industry over a 30-year period, an ordinal analysis of corporate performance, the application of ordinal analysis to the problem of product strategy, a look at world export activity, and an examination of international competition in the microelectronics industry. Throughout, particular attention is given to providing the reader with the background and information necessary to successfully employ ordinal time series methodology in his or her own environment.

This book discusses the psychological traits associated with drug consumption through the statistical analysis of a new database with information on 1885 respondents and use of 18 drugs. After reviewing published works on the psychological profiles of drug users and describing the data mining and machine learning methods used, it demonstrates that the personality traits (five factor model, impulsivity, and sensation seeking) together with simple demographic data make it possible to predict the risk of consumption of individual drugs with a sensitivity and specificity above 70% for most drugs. It also analyzes the correlations of use of different substances and describes the groups of drugs with correlated use, identifying significant differences in personality profiles for users of different drugs. The book is intended for advanced undergraduates and first-year PhD students, as well as researchers and practitioners. Although no previous knowledge of machine learning, advanced data mining concepts or modern psychology of personality is assumed, familiarity with basic statistics and some experience in the use of probabilities would be helpful. For a more detailed introduction to statistical methods, the book provides recommendations for undergraduate textbooks.

This book presents extensive information on structural health monitoring for suspension bridges. During the past two decades, there have been significant advances in the sensing technologies employed in long-span bridge health monitoring. However, interpretation of the massive monitoring data is still lagging behind. This book establishes a series of measurement interpretation frameworks that focus on bridge site environmental conditions, and global and local responses of suspension bridges. Using the proposed frameworks, it subsequently offers new insights into the structural behaviors of long-span suspension bridges. As a valuable resource for researchers, scientists and engineers in the field of bridge structural health monitoring, it provides essential information, methods, and practical algorithms that can facilitate in-service bridge performance assessments.

This volume is composed of peer-reviewed papers that have developed from the First Conference of the International Society for NonParametric Statistics (ISNPS). This inaugural conference took place in Chalkidiki, Greece, June 15-19, 2012. It was organized with the co-sponsorship of the IMS, the ISI, and other organizations. M.G. Akritas, S.N. Lahiri, and D.N. Politis are the first executive committee members of ISNPS, and the editors of this volume. ISNPS has a distinguished Advisory Committee that includes Professors R.Beran, P.Bickel, R. Carroll, D. Cook, P. Hall, R. Johnson, B. Lindsay, E. Parzen, P. Robinson, M. Rosenblatt, G. Roussas, T. SubbaRao, and G. Wahba. The Charting Committee of ISNPS consists of more than 50 prominent researchers from all over the world. The chapters in this volume bring forth recent advances and trends in several areas of nonparametric statistics. In this way, the volume facilitates the exchange of research ideas, promotes collaboration among researchers from all over the world, and contributes to the further development of the field.The conference program included over 250 talks, including special invited talks, plenary talks, and contributed talks on all areas of nonparametric statistics. Out of these talks, some of the most pertinent ones have been refereed and developed into chapters that share both research and developments in the field.

This book compiles and presents new developments in statistical causal inference. The accompanying data and computer programs are publicly available so readers may replicate the model development and data analysis presented in each chapter. In this way, methodology is taught so that readers may implement it directly. The book brings together experts engaged in causal inference research to present and discuss recent issues in causal inference methodological development. This is also a timely look at causal inference applied to scenarios that range from clinical trials to mediation and public health research more broadly. In an academic setting, this book will serve as a reference and guide to a course in causal inference at the graduate level (Master's or Doctorate). It is particularly relevant for students pursuing degrees in statistics, biostatistics, and computational biology. Researchers and data analysts in public health and biomedical research will also find this book to be an important reference.

This textbook offers a unique compendium of measurement procedures for experimental data acquisition. After introducing readers to the basic theory of uncertainty evaluation in measurements, it shows how to apply it in practice to conduct a range of laboratory experiments with instruments and procedures operating both in the time and frequency domains. Offering extensive practical information and hands-on tips on using oscilloscopes, spectrum analyzers and reflectometric instrumentation, the book shows readers how to deal with e.g. filter characterization, operational amplifiers, digital and analogic spectral analysis, and reflectometry-based measurements. For each experiment, it describes the corresponding uncertainty evaluation in detail. Bridging the gap between theory and practice, the book offers a unique, self-contained guide for engineering students and professionals alike. It also provides university teachers and professors with a valuable resource for their laboratory courses on electric and electronic measurements.

This proceedings book highlights the latest research and developments in psychometrics and statistics. Featuring contributions presented at the 82nd Annual Meeting of the Psychometric Society (IMPS), organized by the University of Zurich and held in Zurich, Switzerland from July 17 to 21, 2017, its 34 chapters address a diverse range of psychometric topics including item response theory, factor analysis, causal inference, Bayesian statistics, test equating, cognitive diagnostic models and multistage adaptive testing. The IMPS is one of the largest international meetings on quantitative measurement in psychology, education and the social sciences, attracting over 500 participants and 250 paper presentations from around the world every year. This book gathers the contributions of selected presenters, which were subsequently expanded and peer-reviewed.