The statistics profession is at a unique point in history. The need for valid statistical tools is greater than ever; data sets are massive, often measuring hundreds of thousands of measurements for a single subject.The field is ready to move towards clear objective benchmarks under which tools can be evaluated. Targeted learning allows (1) the full generalization and utilization of cross-validation as an estimator selection tool so that the subjective choices made by humans are now made by the machine, and (2) targeting the fitting of the probability distribution of the data toward the target parameter representing the scientific question of interest.
This book is aimed at both statisticians and applied researchers interested in causal inference and general effect estimation for observational and experimental data. Part I is an accessible introduction to super learning and the targeted maximum likelihood estimator, including related concepts necessary to understand and apply these methods. Parts II-IX handle complex data structures and topics applied researchers will immediately recognize from their own research, including time-to-event outcomes, direct and indirect effects, positivity violations, case-control studies, censored data, longitudinal data, and genomic studies."

Machine learning is concerned with the analysis of large data and multiple variables. It is also often more sensitive than traditional statistical methods to analyze small data. The first and second volumes reviewed subjects like optimal scaling, neural networks, factor analysis, partial least squares, discriminant analysis, canonical analysis, fuzzy modeling, various clustering models, support vector machines, Bayesian networks, discrete wavelet analysis, association rule learning, anomaly detection, and correspondence analysis. This third volume addresses more advanced methods and includes subjects like evolutionary programming, stochastic methods, complex sampling, optional binning, Newton's methods, decision trees, and other subjects. Both the theoretical bases and the step by step analyses are described for the benefit of non-mathematical readers. Each chapter can be studied without the need to consult other chapters. Traditional statistical tests are, sometimes, priors to machine learning methods, and they are also, sometimes, used as contrast tests. To those wishing to obtain more knowledge of them, we recommend to additionally study (1) Statistics Applied to Clinical Studies 5th Edition 2012, (2) SPSS for Starters Part One and Two 2012, and (3) Statistical Analysis of Clinical Data on a Pocket Calculator Part One and Two 2012, written by the same authors, and edited by Springer, New York.

This book presents statistical processes for health care delivery and covers new ideas, methods and technologies used to improve health care organizations. It gathers the proceedings of the Third International Conference on Health Care Systems Engineering (HCSE 2017), which took place in Florence, Italy from May 29 to 31, 2017. The Conference provided a timely opportunity to address operations research and operations management issues in health care delivery systems. Scientists and practitioners discussed new ideas, methods and technologies for improving the operations of health care systems, developed in close collaborations with clinicians. The topics cover a broad spectrum of concrete problems that pose challenges for researchers and practitioners alike: hospital drug logistics, operating theatre management, home care services, modeling, simulation, process mining and data mining in patient care and health care organizations.

This proceedings volume contains nine selected papers that were presented in the International Symposium in Statistics, 2012 held at Memorial University from July 16 to 18. These nine papers cover three different areas for longitudinal data analysis, four dealing with longitudinal data subject to measurement errors, four on incomplete longitudinal data analysis, and the last one for inferences for longitudinal data subject to outliers. Unlike in the independence setup, the inferences in measurement errors, missing values, and/or outlier models, are not adequately discussed in the longitudinal setup. The papers in the present volume provide details on successes and further challenges in these three areas for longitudinal data analysis. This volume is the first outlet with current research in three important areas in the longitudinal setup. The nine papers presented in three parts clearly reveal the similarities and differences in inference techniques used for three different longitudinal setups. Because the research problems considered in this volume are encountered in many real life studies in biomedical, clinical, epidemiology, socioeconomic, econometrics, and engineering fields, the volume should be useful to the researchers including graduate students in these areas.

The subject of the book is advanced statistical analyses for quantitative research synthesis (meta-analysis), and selected practical issues relating to research synthesis that are not covered in detail in the many existing introductory books on research synthesis (or meta-analysis). Complex statistical issues are arising more frequently as the primary research that is summarized in quantitative syntheses itself becomes more complex, and as researchers who are conducting meta-analyses become more ambitious in the questions they wish to address. Also as researchers have gained more experience in conducting research syntheses, several key issues have persisted and now appear fundamental to the enterprise of summarizing research. Specifically the book describes multivariate analyses for several indices commonly used in meta-analysis (e.g., correlations, effect sizes, proportions and/or odds ratios), will outline how to do power analysis for meta-analysis (again for each of the different kinds of study outcome indices), and examines issues around research quality and research design and their roles in synthesis. For each of the statistical topics we will examine the different possible statistical models (i.e., fixed, random, and mixed models) that could be adopted by a researcher. In dealing with the issues of study quality and research design it covers a number of specific topics that are of broad concern to research synthesists. In many fields a current issue is how to make sense of results when studies using several different designs appear in a research literature (e.g., Morris & Deshon, 1997, 2002). In education and other social sciences a critical aspect of this issue is how one might incorporate qualitative (e.g., case study) research within a synthesis. In medicine, related issues concern whether and how to summarize observational studies, and whether they should be combined with randomized controlled trials (or even if they should be combined at all). For each topic, included is a worked example (e.g., for the statistical analyses) and/or a detailed description of a published research synthesis that deals with the practical (non-statistical) issues covered.

The purpose of this book is to present a comprehensive account of the different definitions of stochastic integration for fBm, and to give applications of the resulting theory. Particular emphasis is placed on studying the relations between the different approaches. Readers are assumed to be familiar with probability theory and stochastic analysis, although the mathematical techniques used in the book are thoroughly exposed and some of the necessary prerequisites, such as classical white noise theory and fractional calculus, are recalled in the appendices. This book will be a valuable reference for graduate students and researchers in mathematics, biology, meteorology, physics, engineering and finance.

This book is an introduction into stochastic processes for physicists, biologists and financial analysts. Using an informal approach, all the necessary mathematical tools and techniques are covered, including the stochastic differential equations, mean values, probability distribution functions, stochastic integration and numerical modeling. Numerous examples of practical applications of the stochastic mathematics are considered in detail, ranging from physics to the financial theory. A reader with basic knowledge of the probability theory should have no difficulty in accessing the book content.

These proceedings from the 37th International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering (MaxEnt 2017), held in Sao Carlos, Brazil, aim to expand the available research on Bayesian methods and promote their application in the scientific community. They gather research from scholars in many different fields who use inductive statistics methods and focus on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm, their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist statistics counterparts, and their appropriate applications. Interest in the foundations of inductive statistics has been growing with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives, and scientists now face much more difficult choices in finding the optimal methods to apply to their problems. By carefully examining and discussing the relevant foundations, the scientific community can avoid applying Bayesian methods on a merely ad hoc basis. For over 35 years, the MaxEnt workshops have explored the use of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods in scientific and engineering application contexts. The workshops welcome contributions on all aspects of probabilistic inference, including novel techniques and applications, and work that sheds new light on the foundations of inference. Areas of application in these workshops include astronomy and astrophysics, chemistry, communications theory, cosmology, climate studies, earth science, fluid mechanics, genetics, geophysics, machine learning, materials science, medical imaging, nanoscience, source separation, thermodynamics (equilibrium and non-equilibrium), particle physics, plasma physics, quantum mechanics, robotics, and the social sciences. Bayesian computational techniques such as Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling are also regular topics, as are approximate inferential methods. Foundational issues involving probability theory and information theory, as well as novel applications of inference to illuminate the foundations of physical theories, are also of keen interest.

Since the publication of the first edition of the present volume in 1980, the stochastic stability of differential equations has become a very popular subject of research in mathematics and engineering. To date exact formulas for the Lyapunov exponent, the criteria for the moment and almost sure stability, and for the existence of stationary and periodic solutions of stochastic differential equations have been widely used in the literature. In this updated volume readers will find important new results on the moment Lyapunov exponent, stability index and some other fields, obtained after publication of the first edition, and a significantly expanded bibliography. This volume provides a solid foundation for students in graduate courses in mathematics and its applications. It is also useful for those researchers who would like to learn more about this subject, to start their research in this area or to study the properties of concrete mechanical systems subjected to random perturbations.

Aims and Scope This book is both an introductory textbook and a research monograph on modeling the statistical structure of natural images. In very simple terms, "natural images" are photographs of the typical environment where we live. In this book, their statistical structure is described using a number of statistical models whose parameters are estimated from image samples. Our main motivation for exploring natural image statistics is computational m- eling of biological visual systems. A theoretical framework which is gaining more and more support considers the properties of the visual system to be re?ections of the statistical structure of natural images because of evolutionary adaptation processes. Another motivation for natural image statistics research is in computer science and engineering, where it helps in development of better image processing and computer vision methods. While research on natural image statistics has been growing rapidly since the mid-1990s, no attempt has been made to cover the ?eld in a single book, providing a uni?ed view of the different models and approaches. This book attempts to do just that. Furthermore, our aim is to provide an accessible introduction to the ?eld for students in related disciplines.

This volume presents a collection of peer-reviewed contributions arising from StartUp Research: a stimulating research experience in which twenty-eight early-career researchers collaborated with seven senior international professors in order to develop novel statistical methods for complex brain imaging data. During this meeting, which was held on June 25-27, 2017 in Siena (Italy), the research groups focused on recent multimodality imaging datasets measuring brain function and structure, and proposed a wide variety of methods for network analysis, spatial inference, graphical modeling, multiple testing, dynamic inference, data fusion, tensor factorization, object-oriented analysis and others. The results of their studies are gathered here, along with a final contribution by Michele Guindani and Marina Vannucci that opens new research directions in this field. The book offers a valuable resource for all researchers in Data Science and Neuroscience who are interested in the promising intersections of these two fundamental disciplines.

In honor of the work of Professor Shunji Osaki, Stochastic Reliability and Maintenance Modeling provides a comprehensive study of the legacy of and ongoing research in stochastic reliability and maintenance modeling. Including associated application areas such as dependable computing, performance evaluation, software engineering, communication engineering, distinguished researchers review and build on the contributions over the last four decades by Professor Shunji Osaki. Fundamental yet significant research results are presented and discussed clearly alongside new ideas and topics on stochastic reliability and maintenance modeling to inspire future research. Across 15 chapters readers gain the knowledge and understanding to apply reliability and maintenance theory to computer and communication systems. Stochastic Reliability and Maintenance Modeling is ideal for graduate students and researchers in reliability engineering, and workers, managers and engineers engaged in computer, maintenance and management works.

A wide variety of processes occur on multiple scales, either naturally or as a consequence of measurement. This book contains methodology for the analysis of data that arise from such multiscale processes. The book brings together a number of recent developments and makes them accessible to a wider audience. Taking a Bayesian approach allows for full accounting of uncertainty, and also addresses the delicate issue of uncertainty at multiple scales. The Bayesian approach also facilitates the use of knowledge from prior experience or data, and these methods can handle different amounts of prior knowledge at different scales, as often occurs in practice.

The book is aimed at statisticians, applied mathematicians, and engineers working on problems dealing with multiscale processes in time and/or space, such as in engineering, finance, and environmetrics. The book will also be of interest to those working on multiscale computation research. The main prerequisites are knowledge of Bayesian statistics and basic Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. A number of real-world examples are thoroughly analyzed in order to demonstrate the methods and to assist the readers in applying these methods to their own work. To further assist readers, the authors are making source code (for R) available for many of the basic methods discussed herein.

Suitable for anyone who enjoys logic puzzles Could be used as a companion book for a course on mathematical proof. The puzzles feature the same issues of problem-solving and proof-writing. For anyone who enjoys logical puzzles. For anyone interested in legal reasoning. For anyone who loves the game of baseball.

Volume 2 offers three in-depth articles covering significant areas in applied mathematics research. Chapters feature numerous illustrations, extensive background material and technical details, and abundant examples. The authors analyze nonlinear front propagation for a large class of semilinear partial differential equations using probabilistic methods; examine wave localization phenomena in one-dimensional random media; and offer an extensive introduction to certain model equations for nonlinear wave phenomena.

This book offers an introduction to the mathematical, probabilistic and numerical methods used in the modern theory of option pricing. The text is designed for readers with a basic mathematical background. The first part contains a presentation of the arbitrage theory in discrete time. In the second part, the theories of stochastic calculus and parabolic PDEs are developed in detail and the classical arbitrage theory is analyzed in a Markovian setting by means of of PDEs techniques. After the martingale representation theorems and the Girsanov theory have been presented, arbitrage pricing is revisited in the martingale theory optics. General tools from PDE and martingale theories are also used in the analysis of volatility modeling. The book also contains an Introduction to Levy processes and Malliavin calculus. The last part is devoted to the description of the numerical methods used in option pricing: Monte Carlo, binomial trees, finite differences and Fourier transform.

Now in its third edition and supplemented with more online material, this book aims to make the "new" information-based (rather than gene-based) bioinformatics intelligible both to the "bio" people and the "info" people. Books on bioinformatics have traditionally served gene-hunters, and biologists who wish to construct family trees showing tidy lines of descent. While dealing extensively with the exciting topics of gene discovery and database-searching, such books have hardly considered genomes as information channels through which multiple forms and levels of information have passed through the generations. This "new bioinformatics" contrasts with the "old" gene-based bioinformatics that so preoccupies previous texts. Forms of information that we are familiar with (mental, textual) are related to forms with which we are less familiar (hereditary). The book extends a line of evolutionary thought that leads from the nineteenth century (Darwin, Butler, Romanes, Bateson), through the twentieth (Goldschmidt, White), and into the twenty first (the final works of the late Stephen Jay Gould). Long an area of controversy, diverging views may now be reconciled.

This textbook covers the fundamentals of statistical inference and statistical theory including Bayesian and frequentist approaches and methodology possible without excessive emphasis on the underlying mathematics. This book is about some of the basic principles of statistics that are necessary to understand and evaluate methods for analyzing complex data sets. The likelihood function is used for pure likelihood inference throughout the book. There is also coverage of severity and finite population sampling. The material was developed from an introductory statistical theory course taught by the author at the Johns Hopkins University's Department of Biostatistics. Students and instructors in public health programs will benefit from the likelihood modeling approach that is used throughout the text. This will also appeal to epidemiologists and psychometricians. After a brief introduction, there are chapters on estimation, hypothesis testing, and maximum likelihood modeling. The book concludes with sections on Bayesian computation and inference. An appendix contains unique coverage of the interpretation of probability, and coverage of probability and mathematical concepts.

This fundamental monograph introduces both the probabilistic and algebraic aspects of information theory and coding. It has evolved from the authors' years of experience teaching at the undergraduate level, including several Cambridge Maths Tripos courses. The book provides relevant background material, a wide range of worked examples and clear solutions to problems from real exam papers. It is a valuable teaching aid for undergraduate and graduate students, or for researchers and engineers who want to grasp the basic principles.

The use of computational methods in statistics to face complex problems and highly dimensional data, as well as the widespread availability of computer technology, is no news. The range of applications, instead, is unprecedented. As often occurs, new and complex data types require new strategies, demanding for the development of novel statistical methods and suggesting stimulating mathematical problems. This book is addressed to researchers working at the forefront of the statistical analysis of complex systems and using computationally intensive statistical methods.

I have found many thousands more readers than I ever looked for. I have no right to say to these, You shall not ?nd fault with my art, or fall asleep over my pages; but I ask you to believe that this person writing strives to tell the truth. If there is not that, there is nothing. William Makepeace Thackeray, The History of Pendennis This is a monograph/textbook on the probabilistic aspects of gambling, intended for those already familiar with probability at the post-calculus, p- measure-theory level. Gambling motivated much of the early development of probability the- 1 ory (David 1962). Indeed, some of the earliest works on probability include Girolamo Cardano's [1501-1576] Liber de Ludo Aleae (The Book on Games of Chance, written c. 1565, published 1663), Christiaan Huygens's [1629- 1695] "De ratiociniis in ludo aleae" ("On reckoning in games of chance," 1657), Jacob Bernoulli's [1654-1705]Ars Conjectandi (The Art of Conject- ing, written c. 1690, published 1713), Pierre R' emond de Montmort's [1678- 1719] Essay d'analyse sur les jeux de hasard (Analytical Essay on Games of Chance, 1708, 1713), and Abraham De Moivre's [1667-1754]TheDoctrineof Chances (1718, 1738, 1756). Gambling also had a major in?uence on 20- century probability theory, as it provided the motivation for the concept of a martingale.

Mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases usually involves describing the flow of individuals between mutually exclusive infection states. One of the key parameters describing the transition from the susceptible to the infected class is the hazard of infection, often referred to as the force of infection. The force of infection reflects the degree of contact with potential for transmission between infected and susceptible individuals. The mathematical relation between the force of infection and effective contact patterns is generally assumed to be subjected to the mass action principle, which yields the necessary information to estimate the basic reproduction number, another key parameter in infectious disease epidemiology. It is within this context that the Center for Statistics (CenStat, I-Biostat, Hasselt University) and the Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination and the Centre for Health Economic Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases (CEV, CHERMID, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp) have collaborated over the past 15 years. This book demonstrates the past and current research activities of these institutes and can be considered to be a milestone in this collaboration. This book is focused on the application of modern statistical methods and models to estimate infectious disease parameters. We want to provide the readers with software guidance, such as R packages, and with data, as far as they can be made publicly available.

This textbook focuses on stochastic analysis in systems biology containing both the theory and application. While the authors provide a review of probability and random variables, subsequent notions of biochemical reaction systems and the relevant concepts of probability theory are introduced side by side. This leads to an intuitive and easy-to-follow presentation of stochastic framework for modeling subcellular biochemical systems. In particular, the authors make an effort to show how the notion of propensity, the chemical master equation and the stochastic simulation algorithm arise as consequences of the Markov property.

The text contains many illustrations, examples and exercises to illustrate the ideas and methods that are introduced. Matlab code is also provided where appropriate. Additionally, the cell cycle is introduced as a more complex case study.

Senior undergraduate and graduate students in mathematics and physics as well as researchers working in the area of systems biology, bioinformatics and related areas will find this text useful.

"

This volume presents a concise and practical overview of statistical methods and tables not readily available in other publications. It begins with a review of the commonly used continuous and discrete probability distributions. Several useful distributions that are not so common and less understood are described with examples and applications in full detail: discrete normal, left-partial, right-partial, left-truncated normal, right-truncated normal, lognormal, bivariate normal, and bivariate lognormal. Table values are provided with examples that enable researchers to easily apply the distributions to real applications and sample data. The left- and right-truncated normal distributions offer a wide variety of shapes in contrast to the symmetrically shaped normal distribution, and a newly developed spread ratio enables analysts to determine which of the three distributions best fits a particular set of sample data. The book will be highly useful to anyone who does statistical and probability analysis. This includes scientists, economists, management scientists, market researchers, engineers, mathematicians, and students in many disciplines.