The 2006 INFORMS Expository Writing Award-winning and best-selling author Sheldon Ross (University of Southern California) teams up with Erol Pekz (Boston University) to bring you this textbook for undergraduate and graduate students in statistics, mathematics, engineering, finance, and actuarial science. This is a guided tour designed to give familiarity with advanced topics in probability without having to wade through the exhaustive coverage of the classic advanced probability theory books. Topics include measure theory, limit theorems, bounding probabilities and expectations, coupling and Stein's method, martingales, Markov chains, renewal theory, and Brownian motion. No other text covers all these advanced topics rigorously but at such an accessible level; all you need is calculus and material from a first undergraduate course in probability.

In contrast to the prevailing tradition in epistemology, the focus in this book is on low-level inferences, i.e., those inferences that we are usually not consciously aware of and that we share with the cat nearby which infers that the bird which she sees picking grains from the dirt, is able to fly. Presumably, such inferences are not generated by explicit logical reasoning, but logical methods can be used to describe and analyze such inferences.

Part 1 gives a purely system-theoretic explication of belief and inference. Part 2 adds a reliabilist theory of justification for inference, with a qualitative notion of reliability being employed. Part 3 recalls and extends various systems of deductive and nonmonotonic logic and thereby explains the semantics of absolute and high reliability. In Part 4 it is proven that qualitative neural networks are able to draw justified deductive and nonmonotonic inferences on the basis of distributed representations. This is derived from a soundness/completeness theorem with regard to cognitive semantics of nonmonotonic reasoning. The appendix extends the theory both logically and ontologically, and relates it to A. Goldman's reliability account of justified belief.

This edited volume addresses the importance of mathematics for industry and society by presenting highlights from contract research at the Department of Applied Mathematics at SINTEF, the largest independent research organization in Scandinavia. Examples range from computer-aided geometric design, via general purpose computing on graphics cards, to reservoir simulation for enhanced oil recovery. Contributions are written in a tutorial style.

Mathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods described in this book avoid such pitfalls. Seismic disasters are studied, primarily thanks to the availability of an ample statistical database. New approaches are presented to seismic risk estimation and forecasting the damage caused by earthquakes, ranging from typical, moderate events to very rare, extreme disasters. Analysis of these latter events is based on the limit theorems of probability and the duality of the generalized Pareto distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. It is shown that the parameter most widely used to estimate seismic risk - Mmax, the maximum possible earthquake value - is potentially non-robust. Robust analogues of this parameter are suggested and calculated for some seismic catalogues. Trends in the costs inferred by damage from natural disasters as related to changing social and economic situations are examined for different regions.

The results obtained argue for sustainable development, whereas entirely different, incorrect conclusions can be drawn if the specific properties of the heavy-tailed distribution and change in completeness of data on natural hazards are neglected.

This pioneering work is directed at risk assessment specialists in general, seismologists, administrators and all those interested in natural disasters and their impact on society.

The theory of random processes is an integral part of the analysis and synthesis of complex engineering systems. This textbook systematically presents the fundamentals of statistical dynamics and reliability theory. The theory of Markovian processes used during the analysis of random dynamic processes in mechanical systems is described in detail. Examples are machines, instruments and structures loaded with perturbations. The reliability and lifetime of those objects depend on how properly these perturbations are taken into account. Random vibrations with finite and infinite numbers of degrees of freedom are analyzed as well as the theory and numerical methods of non-stationary processes under the conditions of statistical indeterminacy. This textbook is addressed to students and post-graduates of technical universities. It can also be useful to lecturers and mechanical engineers, including designers in different industries.

Recent years have witnessed a growing importance of quantitative methods in both financial research and industry. This development requires the use of advanced techniques on a theoretical and applied level, especially when it comes to the quantification of risk and the valuation of modern financial products. Applied Quantitative Finance (2nd edition) provides a comprehensive and state-of-the-art treatment of cutting-edge topics and methods. It provides solutions to and presents theoretical developments in many practical problems such as risk management, pricing of credit derivatives, quantification of volatility and copula modelling. The synthesis of theory and practice supported by computational tools is reflected in the selection of topics as well as in a finely tuned balance of scientific contributions on practical implementation and theoretical concepts. This linkage between theory and practice offers theoreticians insights into considerations of applicability and, vice versa, provides practitioners comfortable access to new techniques in quantitative finance. Themes that are dominant in current research and which are presented in this book include among others the valuation of Collaterized Debt Obligations (CDOs), the high-frequency analysis of market liquidity, the pricing of Bermuda options and realized volatility. All Quantlets for the calculation of the given examples are downloadable from the Springer web pages.

This monograph is devoted to the systematic presentation of foundations of the quantum field theory. Unlike numerous monographs devoted to this topic, a wide range of problems covered in this book are accompanied by their sufficiently clear interpretations and applications. An important significant feature of this monograph is the desire of the author to present mathematical problems of the quantum field theory with regard to new methods of the constructive and Euclidean field theory that appeared in the last thirty years of the 20th century and are based on the rigorous mathematical apparatus of functional analysis, the theory of operators, and the theory of generalized functions. The monograph is useful for students, post-graduate students, and young scientists who desire to understand not only the formality of construction of the quantum field theory but also its essence and connection with the classical mechanics, relativistic classical field theory, quantum mechanics, group theory, and the theory of path integral formalism.

This book undertakes a detailed construction of Dynamic Markov Bridges using a combination of theory and real-world applications to drive home important concepts and methodologies. In Part I, theory is developed using tools from stochastic filtering, partial differential equations, Markov processes, and their interplay. Part II is devoted to the applications of the theory developed in Part I to asymmetric information models among financial agents, which include a strategic risk-neutral insider who possesses a private signal concerning the future value of the traded asset, non-strategic noise traders, and competitive risk-neutral market makers. A thorough analysis of optimality conditions for risk-neutral insiders  is provided and the implications on equilibrium of non-Gaussian extensions are discussed. A Markov bridge, first considered by Paul Lévy in the context of Brownian motion, is a mathematical system that undergoes changes in value from one state to another when the initial and final states are fixed. Markov bridges have many applications as stochastic models of real-world processes, especially within the areas of Economics and Finance. The construction of a Dynamic Markov Bridge, a useful extension of Markov bridge theory, addresses several important questions concerning how financial markets function, among them: how the presence of an insider trader impacts market efficiency; how insider trading on financial markets can be detected; how information assimilates in market prices; and the optimal pricing policy of a particular market maker. Principles in this book will appeal to probabilists, statisticians, economists, researchers, and graduate students interested in Markov bridges and market microstructure theory.

The seminar on Stochastic Analysis and Mathematical Physics of the Ca tholic University of Chile, started in Santiago in 1984, has being followed and enlarged since 1995 by a series of international workshops aimed at pro moting a wide-spectrum dialogue between experts on the fields of classical and quantum stochastic analysis, mathematical physics, and physics. This volume collects most of the contributions to the Fourth Interna tional Workshop on Stochastic Analysis and Mathematical Physics (whose Spanish abbreviation is "ANESTOC"; in English, "STAMP"), held in San tiago, Chile, from January 5 to 11, 2000. The workshop style stimulated a vivid exchange of ideas which finally led to a number of written con tributions which I am glad to introduce here. However, we are currently submitted to a sort of invasion of proceedings books, and we do not want to increase our own shelves with a new one of the like. On the other hand, the editors of conference proceedings have to use different exhausting and com pulsive strategies to persuade authors to write and provide texts in time, a task which terrifies us. As a result, this volume is aimed at smoothly start ing a new kind of publication. What we would like to have is a collection of books organized like our seminar.

This is a book about regression analysis, that is, the situation in statistics where the distribution of a response (or outcome) variable is related to - planatory variables (or covariates). This is an extremely common situation in the application of statistical methods in many ?elds, andlinear regression, - gistic regression, and Cox proportional hazards regression are frequently used for quantitative, binary, and survival time outcome variables, respectively. Several books on these topics have appeared and for that reason one may well ask why we embark on writing still another book on regression. We have two main reasons for doing this: 1. First, we want to highlightsimilaritiesamonglinear, logistic, proportional hazards, andotherregressionmodelsthatincludealinearpredictor. These modelsareoftentreatedentirelyseparatelyintextsinspiteofthefactthat alloperationsonthemodelsdealingwiththelinearpredictorareprecisely the same, including handling of categorical and quantitative covariates, testing for linearity and studying interactions. 2. Second, we want to emphasize that, for any type of outcome variable, multiple regression models are composed of simple building blocks that areaddedtogetherinthelinearpredictor: thatis, t-tests, one-wayanalyses of variance and simple linear regressions for quantitative outcomes, 2x2, 2x(k+1) tables and simple logistic regressions for binary outcomes, and 2-and (k+1)-sample logrank testsand simple Cox regressionsfor survival data. Thishastwoconsequences. Allthesesimpleandwellknownmethods can be considered as special cases of the regression models. On the other hand, the e?ect of a single explanatory variable in a multiple regression model can be interpreted in a way similar to that obtained in the simple analysis, however, now valid only for the other explanatory variables in the model "held ?xed.""

The most accessible introduction to the theory and practice of multivariate analysis

Multivariate Statistical Inference and Applications is a user-friendly introduction to basic multivariate analysis theory and practice for statistics majors as well as nonmajors with little or no background in theoretical statistics. Among the many special features of this extremely accessible first text on multivariate analysis are:

• Clear, step-by-step explanations of all key concepts and procedures along with original, easy-to-follow proofs
• Numerous problems, examples, and tables of distributions
• Many real-world data sets drawn from a wide range of disciplines
• Reviews of univariate procedures that give rise to multivariate techniques
• An extensive survey of the world literature on multivariate analysis
• An in-depth review of matrix theory
• A disk including all the data sets and SAS command files for all examples and numerical problems found in the book

These same features also make Multivariate Statistical Inference and Applications an excellent professional resource for scientists and clinicians who need to acquaint themselves with multivariate techniques. It can be used as a stand-alone introduction or in concert with its more methods-oriented sibling volume, the critically acclaimed Methods of Multivariate Analysis.

This book collects lectures given by the plenary speakers at the 10th International ISAAC Congress, held in Macau, China in 2015. The contributions, authored by eminent specialists, present some of the most exciting recent developments in mathematical analysis, probability theory, and related applications. Topics include: partial differential equations in mathematical physics, Fourier analysis, probability and Brownian motion, numerical analysis, and reproducing kernels. The volume also presents a lecture on the visual exploration of complex functions using the domain coloring technique. Thanks to the accessible style used, readers only need a basic command of calculus.

A number of methodologies have been employed to provide decision making solutions to a whole assortment of financial problems in today's globalized markets. Hidden Markov Models in Finance by Mamon and Elliott will be the first systematic application of these methods to some special kinds of financial problems; namely, pricing options and variance swaps, valuation of life insurance policies, interest rate theory, credit risk modeling, risk management, analysis of future demand and inventory level, testing foreign exchange rate hypothesis, and early warning systems for currency crises. This book provides researchers and practitioners with analyses that allow them to sort through the random noise of financial markets (i.e., turbulence, volatility, emotion, chaotic events, etc.) and analyze the fundamental components of economic markets. Hence, Hidden Markov Models in Finance provides decision makers with a clear, accurate picture of core financial components by filtering out the random noise in financial markets.

This is the most comprehensive survey of the mathematical life of the legendary Paul Erdos (1913-1996), one of the most versatile and prolific mathematicians of our time. For the first time, all the main areas of Erdos' research are covered in a single project. Because of overwhelming response from the mathematical community, the project now occupies over 1000 pages, arranged into two volumes. These volumes contain both high level research articles as well as key articles that survey some of the cornerstones of Erdos' work, each written by a leading world specialist in the field. A special chapter "Early Days", rare photographs, and art related to Erdos complement this striking collection. A unique contribution is the bibliography on Erdos' publications: the most comprehensive ever published. This new edition, dedicated to the 100th anniversary of Paul Erdos' birth, contains updates on many of the articles from the two volumes of the first edition, several new articles from prominent mathematicians, a new introduction, more biographical information about Paul Erdos, and an updated list of publications. The first volume contains the unique chapter "Early Days", which features personal memories of Paul Erdos by a number of his colleagues. The other three chapters cover number theory, random methods, and geometry. All of these chapters are essentially updated, most notably the geometry chapter that covers the recent solution of the problem on the number of distinct distances in finite planar sets, which was the most popular of Erdos' favorite geometry problems.

This is a graduate-level textbook on Bayesian analysis blending modern Bayesian theory, methods, and applications. Starting from basic statistics, undergraduate calculus and linear algebra, ideas of both subjective and objective Bayesian analysis are developed to a level where real-life data can be analyzed using the current techniques of statistical computing.

Advances in both low-dimensional and high-dimensional problems are covered, as well as important topics such as empirical Bayes and hierarchical Bayes methods and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques.

Many topics are at the cutting edge of statistical research. Solutions to common inference problems appear throughout the text along with discussion of what prior to choose. There is a discussion of elicitation of a subjective prior as well as the motivation, applicability, and limitations of objective priors. By way of important applications the book presents microarrays, nonparametric regression via wavelets as well as DMA mixtures of normals, and spatial analysis with illustrations using simulated and real data. Theoretical topics at the cutting edge include high-dimensional model selection and Intrinsic Bayes Factors, which the authors have successfully applied to geological mapping.

The style is informal but clear. Asymptotics is used to supplement simulation or understand some aspects of the posterior.

Supervision, condition-monitoring, fault detection, fault diagnosis and fault management play an increasing role for technical processes and vehicles in order to improve reliability, availability, maintenance and lifetime. For safety-related processes fault-tolerant systems with redundancy are required in order to reach comprehensive system integrity.

This book is a sequel of the book Fault-Diagnosis Systems published in 2006, where the basic methods were described. After a short introduction into fault-detection and fault-diagnosis methods the book shows how these methods can be applied for a selection of 20 real technical components and processes as examples, such as:

Electrical drives (DC, AC)

Electrical actuators

Fluidic actuators (hydraulic, pneumatic)

Centrifugal and reciprocating pumps

Pipelines (leak detection)

Industrial robots

Machine tools (main and feed drive, drilling, milling, grinding)

Heat exchangers

Also realized fault-tolerant systems for electrical drives, actuators and sensors are presented.

The book describes why and how the various signal-model-based and process-model-based methods were applied and which experimental results could be achieved. In several cases a combination of different methods was most successful.

The book is dedicated to graduate students of electrical, mechanical, chemical engineering and computer science and for engineers.

This thesis explores advanced Bayesian statistical methods for extracting key information for cosmological model selection, parameter inference and forecasting from astrophysical observations. Bayesian model selection provides a measure of how good models in a set are relative to each other - but what if the best model is missing and not included in the set? Bayesian Doubt is an approach which addresses this problem and seeks to deliver an absolute rather than a relative measure of how good a model is. Supernovae type Ia were the first astrophysical observations to indicate the late time acceleration of the Universe - this work presents a detailed Bayesian Hierarchical Model to infer the cosmological parameters (in particular dark energy) from observations of these supernovae type Ia.

This book is intended to provide a text on statistical methods for detecting clus ters and/or clustering of health events that is of interest to ?nal year undergraduate and graduate level statistics, biostatistics, epidemiology, and geography students but will also be of relevance to public health practitioners, statisticians, biostatisticians, epidemiologists, medical geographers, human geographers, environmental scien tists, and ecologists. Prerequisites are introductory biostatistics and epidemiology courses. With increasing public health concerns about environmental risks, the need for sophisticated methods for analyzing spatial health events is immediate. Further more, the research area of statistical tests for disease clustering now attracts a wide audience due to the perceived need to implement wide ranging monitoring systems to detect possible health related bioterrorism activity. With this background and the development of the geographical information system (GIS), the analysis of disease clustering of health events has seen considerable development over the last decade. Therefore, several excellent books on spatial epidemiology and statistics have re cently been published. However, it seems to me that there is no other book solely focusing on statistical methods for disease clustering. I hope that readers will ?nd this book useful and interesting as an introduction to the subject.

An up-to-date approach to understanding statistical inference

Statistical inference is finding useful applications in numerous fields, from sociology and econometrics to biostatistics. This volume enables professionals in these and related fields to master the concepts of statistical inference under inequality constraints and to apply the theory to problems in a variety of areas.

Constrained Statistical Inference: Order, Inequality, and Shape Constraints provides a unified and up-to-date treatment of the methodology. It clearly illustrates concepts with practical examples from a variety of fields, focusing on sociology, econometrics, and biostatistics.

The authors also discuss a broad range of other inequality-constrained inference problems that do not fit well in the contemplated unified framework, providing a meaningful way for readers to comprehend methodological resolutions.

Chapter coverage includes:

• Population means and isotonic regression
• Inequality-constrained tests on normal means
• Tests in general parametric models
• Likelihood and alternatives
• Analysis of categorical data
• Inference on monotone density function, unimodal density function, shape constraints, and DMRL functions
• Bayesian perspectives, including Stein's Paradox, shrinkage estimation, and decision theory

An incomparably useful examination of statistical methods for comparison

The nature of doing science, be it natural or social, inevitably calls for comparison. Statistical methods are at the heart of such comparison, for they not only help us gain understanding of the world around us but often define how our research is to be carried out. The need to compare between groups is best exemplified by experiments, which have clearly defined statistical methods. However, true experiments are not always possible. What complicates the matter more is a great deal of diversity in factors that are not independent of the outcome.

Statistical Group Comparison brings together a broad range of statistical methods for comparison developed over recent years. The book covers a wide spectrum of topics from the simplest comparison of two means or rates to more recently developed statistics including double generalized linear models and Bayesian as well as hierarchical methods. Coverage includes:

• Testing parameter equality in linear regression and other generalized linear models (GLMs), in order of increasing complexity
• Likelihood ratio, Wald, and Lagrange multiplier statistics examined where applicable
• Group comparisons involving latent variables in structural equation modeling
• Models of comparison for categorical latent variables

Examples are drawn from the social, political, economic, and biomedical sciences; many can be implemented using widely available software. Because of the range and the generality of the statistical methods covered, researchers across many disciplines–beyond the social, political, economic, and biomedical sciences–will find the book a convenient reference for many a research situation where comparisons may come naturally.

"a ]the author has packaged an excellent and modern set of topics around the development and use of quantitative models.... If you need to learn about resampling, this book would be a good place to start."

a "Technometrics (Review of the Second Edition)

This thoroughly revised and expanded third edition is a practical guide to data analysis using the bootstrap, cross-validation, and permutation tests. Only requiring minimal mathematics beyond algebra, the book provides a table-free introduction to data analysis utilizing numerous exercises, practical data sets, and freely available statistical shareware.

Topics and Features

* Practical presentation covers both the bootstrap and permutations along with the program code necessary to put them to work.

* Includes a systematic guide to selecting the correct procedure for a particular application.

* Detailed coverage of classification, estimation, experimental design, hypothesis testing, and modeling.

* Suitable for both classroom use and individual self-study.

New to the Third Edition

* Procedures are grouped by application; a prefatory chapter guides readers to the appropriate reading matter.

* Program listings and screen shots now accompany each resampling procedure: Whether one programs in C++, CART, Blossom, Box Sampler (an Excel add-in), EViews, MATLAB, R, Resampling Stats, SAS macros, S-PLUS, Stata, or StatXact, readers will find the program listings and screen shots needed to put each resampling procedure into practice.

* To simplify programming, code for readers to download and apply is posted at http: //www.springeronline.com/0-8176-4386-9.

* Notation has beensimplified and, where possible, eliminated.

* A glossary and answers to selected exercises are included.

With its accessible style and intuitive topic development, the book is an excellent basic resource for the power, simplicity, and versatility of resampling methods. It is an essential resource for statisticians, biostatisticians, statistical consultants, students, and research professionals in the biological, physical, and social sciences, engineering, and technology.

This book encompasses empirical evidences to understand the application of data analytical techniques in emerging contexts. Varied studies relating to manufacturing and services sectors including healthcare, banking, information technology, power, education sector etc. stresses upon the systematic approach followed in applying the data analytical techniques; and also analyses how these techniques are effective in decision-making in different contexts. Especially, the application of regression modeling, financial modelling, multi-group modeling, cluster analysis, and sentiment analysis will help the readers in understanding critical business scenarios in the best possible way, and which later can help them in arriving at best solution for the business related problems. The individual chapters will help the readers in understanding the role of specific data analytic tools and techniques in resolving business operational issues experienced in manufacturing and service organisations in India and in developing countries. The book offers a relevant resource that will help readers in the application and interpretation of data analytical statistical practices relating to emerging issues like customer experience, marketing capability, quality of manufactured products, strategic orientation, high-performance human resource policy, employee resilience, financial resources, etc. This book will be of interest to a professional audience that include practitioners, policy makers, NGOs, managers and employees as well as academicians, researchers and students.

Highly praised for its exceptional clarity, conversational style and useful examples, Introductory Business Statistics, 7e, International Edition was written specifically for you. This proven, popular text cuts through the jargon to help you understand fundamental statistical concepts and why they are important to you, your world, and your career. The text's outstanding illustrations, friendly language, non-technical terminology, and current, real-world examples will capture your interest and prepare you for success right from the start.

The book presents contributions on statistical models and methods applied, for both data science and SDGs, in one place. Measuring and controlling data of SDGs, data driven measurement of progress needs to be distributed to stakeholders. In this situation, the techniques used in data science, specially, in the big data analytics, play an important role rather than the traditional data gathering and manipulation techniques. This book fills this space through its twenty contributions. The contributions have been selected from those presented during the 7th International Conference on Data Science and Sustainable Development Goals organized by the Department of Statistics, University of Rajshahi, Bangladesh; and cover topics mainly on SDGs, bioinformatics, public health, medical informatics, environmental statistics, data science and machine learning. The contents of the volume would be useful to policymakers, researchers, government entities, civil society, and nonprofit organizations for monitoring and accelerating the progress of SDGs.