Often it is more instructive to know 'what can go wrong' and to understand 'why a result fails' than to plod through yet another piece of theory. In this text, the authors gather more than 300 counterexamples - some of them both surprising and amusing - showing the limitations, hidden traps and pitfalls of measure and integration. Many examples are put into context, explaining relevant parts of the theory, and pointing out further reading. The text starts with a self-contained, non-technical overview on the fundamentals of measure and integration. A companion to the successful undergraduate textbook Measures, Integrals and Martingales, it is accessible to advanced undergraduate students, requiring only modest prerequisites. More specialized concepts are summarized at the beginning of each chapter, allowing for self-study as well as supplementary reading for any course covering measures and integrals. For researchers, it provides ample examples and warnings as to the limitations of general measure theory. This book forms a sister volume to Rene Schilling's other book Measures, Integrals and Martingales (www.cambridge.org/9781316620243).

Agreement assessment techniques are widely used in examining the acceptability of a new or generic process, methodology and/or formulation in areas of lab performance, instrument/assay validation or method comparisons, statistical process control, goodness-of-fit, and individual bioequivalence. Successful applications in these situations require a sound understanding of both the underlying theory and methodological advances in handling real-life problems. This book seeks to effectively blend theory and applications while presenting readers with many practical examples. For instance, in the medical device environment, it is important to know if the newly established lab can reproduce the instrument/assay results from the established but outdating lab. When there is a disagreement, it is important to differentiate the sources of disagreement. In addition to agreement coefficients, accuracy and precision coefficients are introduced and utilized to characterize these sources. This book will appeal to a broad range of statisticians, researchers, practitioners and students, in areas of biomedical devices, psychology, medical research, and others, in which agreement assessment are needed. Many practical illustrative examples will be presented throughout the book in a wide variety of situations for continuous and categorical data.

This is the most comprehensive survey of the mathematical life of the legendary Paul Erdos (1913-1996), one of the most versatile and prolific mathematicians of our time. For the first time, all the main areas of Erdos' research are covered in a single project. Because of overwhelming response from the mathematical community, the project now occupies over 1000 pages, arranged into two volumes. These volumes contain both high level research articles as well as key articles that survey some of the cornerstones of Erdos' work, each written by a leading world specialist in the field. A special chapter "Early Days", rare photographs, and art related to Erdos complement this striking collection. A unique contribution is the bibliography on Erdos' publications: the most comprehensive ever published. This new edition, dedicated to the 100th anniversary of Paul Erdos' birth, contains updates on many of the articles from the two volumes of the first edition, several new articles from prominent mathematicians, a new introduction, and more biographical information about Paul Erdos with an updated list of publications. The second volume contains chapters on graph theory and combinatorics, extremal and Ramsey theory, and a section on infinity that covers Erdos' research on set theory. All of these chapters are essentially updated, particularly the extremal theory chapter that contains a survey of flag algebras, a new technique for solving extremal problems.

This edited book first consolidates the results of the EU-funded EDISON project (Education for Data Intensive Science to Open New science frontiers), which developed training material and information to assist educators, trainers, employers, and research infrastructure managers in identifying, recruiting and inspiring the data science professionals of the future. It then deepens the presentation of the information and knowledge gained to allow for easier assimilation by the reader. The contributed chapters are presented in sequence, each chapter picking up from the end point of the previous one. After the initial book and project overview, the chapters present the relevant data science competencies and body of knowledge, the model curriculum required to teach the required foundations, profiles of professionals in this domain, and use cases and applications. The text is supported with appendices on related process models. The book can be used to develop new courses in data science, evaluate existing modules and courses, draft job descriptions, and plan and design efficient data-intensive research teams across scientific disciplines.

How do you remember more and forget less? How can you earn more and become more creative just by moving house? And how do you pack a car boot most efficiently? This is your shortcut to the art of the shortcut. Mathematics is full of better ways of thinking, and with over 2,000 years of knowledge to draw on, Oxford mathematician Marcus du Sautoy interrogates his passion for shortcuts in this fresh and fascinating guide. After all, shortcuts have enabled so much of human progress, whether in constructing the first cities around the Euphrates 5,000 years ago, using calculus to determine the scale of the universe or in writing today's algorithms that help us find a new life partner. As well as looking at the most useful shortcuts in history - such as measuring the circumference of the earth in 240 BC to diagrams that illustrate how modern GPS works - Marcus also looks at how you can use shortcuts in investing or how to learn a musical instrument to memory techniques. He talks to, among many, the writer Robert MacFarlane, cellist Natalie Clein and the psychologist Suzie Orbach, asking whether shortcuts are always the best idea and, if so, when they use them. With engaging puzzles and conundrums throughout to illustrate the shortcut's ability to find solutions with speed, Thinking Better offers many clever strategies for daily complex problems.

The book is a comprehensive, self-contained introduction to the mathematical modeling and analysis of disease transmission models. It includes (i) an introduction to the main concepts of compartmental models including models with heterogeneous mixing of individuals and models for vector-transmitted diseases, (ii) a detailed analysis of models for important specific diseases, including tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, influenza, Ebola virus disease, malaria, dengue fever and the Zika virus, (iii) an introduction to more advanced mathematical topics, including age structure, spatial structure, and mobility, and (iv) some challenges and opportunities for the future. There are exercises of varying degrees of difficulty, and projects leading to new research directions. For the benefit of public health professionals whose contact with mathematics may not be recent, there is an appendix covering the necessary mathematical background. There are indications which sections require a strong mathematical background so that the book can be useful for both mathematical modelers and public health professionals.

This book investigates the mathematical analysis of biological invasions. Unlike purely qualitative treatments of ecology, it draws on mathematical theory and methods, equipping the reader with sharp tools and rigorous methodology. Subjects include invasion dynamics, species interactions, population spread, long-distance dispersal, stochastic effects, risk analysis, and optimal responses to invaders. While based on the theory of dynamical systems, including partial differential equations and integrodifference equations, the book also draws on information theory, machine learning, Monte Carlo methods, optimal control, statistics, and stochastic processes. Applications to real biological invasions are included throughout. Ultimately, the book imparts a powerful principle: that by bringing ecology and mathematics together, researchers can uncover new understanding of, and effective response strategies to, biological invasions. It is suitable for graduate students and established researchers in mathematical ecology.

This book is designed as a supplement to an introductory undergraduate or graduate course for mathematics, science and engineering students of all disciplines. the text covers all major aspects of engineering statistics, including descriptive statistics, probability and probability distributions, statistical test and confidence intervals for one and two samples and curve fitting, correlation, regression, chi-square tests, and analysis of variance. The book continues to maintain a student-friendly approach and numerical problem solving orientation. Presentations are limited to very basic topics to serve as an introduction to advance topics in those areas of discipline. The purpose of the book is to present the principles and concepts of Probability and Statistics as relevant to student learning.

During the past decade, geneticists have cloned scores of Mendelian disease genes and constructed a rough draft of the entire human genome. The unprecedented insights into human disease and evolution offered by mapping, cloning, and sequencing will transform medicine and agriculture. This revolution depends vitally on the contributions of applied mathematicians, statisticians, and computer scientists. Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Genetic Analysis is written to equip students in the mathematical sciences to understand and model the epidemiological and experimental data encountered in genetics research. Mathematical, statistical, and computational principles relevant to this task are developed hand in hand with applications to population genetics, gene mapping, risk prediction, testing of epidemiological hypotheses, molecular evolution, and DNA sequence analysis. Many specialized topics are covered that are currently accessible only in journal articles. This second edition expands the original edition by over 100 pages and includes new material on DNA sequence analysis, diffusion processes, binding domain identification, Bayesian estimation of haplotype frequencies, case-control association studies, the gamete competition model, QTL mapping and factor analysis, the Lander-Green-Kruglyak algorithm of pedigree analysis, and codon and rate variation models in molecular phylogeny. Sprinkled throughout the chapters are many new problems. Kenneth Lange is Professor of Biomathematics and Human Genetics at the UCLA School of Medicine. At various times during his career, he has held appointments at the University of New Hampshire, MIT, Harvard, and the University of Michigan. While at the University of Michigan, he was the Pharmacia & Upjohn Foundation Professor of Biostatistics. His research interests include human genetics, population modeling, biomedical imaging, computational statistics, and applied stochastic processes. Springer-Verlag published his book Numerical Analysis for Statisticians in 1999.

The theory of stochastic processes, for science and engineering, can be considered as an extension of probability theory allowing modeling of the evolution of systems over time. The modern theory of Markov processes has its origins in the studies of A.A. Markov (1856-1922) on sequences of experiments "connected in a chain" and in the attempts to describe mathematically the physical phenomenon Brownian motion. The theory of stochastic processes entered in a period of intensive development when the idea of Markov property was brought in. This book is a modern overall view of semi-Markov processes and its applications in reliability. It is accessible to readers with a first course in Probability theory (including the basic notions of Markov chain). The text contains many examples which aid in the understanding of the theoretical notions and shows how to apply them to concrete physical situations including algorithmic simulations. Many examples of the concrete applications in reliability are given. Features: * Processes associated to semi-Markov kernel for general and discrete state spaces * Asymptotic theory of processes and of additive functionals * Statistical estimation of semi-Markov kernel and of reliability function * Monte Carlo simulation * Applications in reliability and maintenance The book is a valuable resource for understanding the latest developments in Semi-Markov Processes and reliability. Practitioners, researchers and professionals in applied mathematics, control and engineering who work in areas of reliability, lifetime data analysis, statistics, probability, and engineering will find this book an up-to-date overview of the field.

Expert testimony relying on scientific and other specialized evidence has come under increased scrutiny by the legal system. A trilogy of recent U.S. Supreme Court cases has assigned judges the task of assessing the relevance and reliability of proposed expert testimony. In conjunction with the Federal judiciary, the American Association for the Advancement of Science has initiated a project to provide judges indicating a need with their own expert. This concern with the proper interpretation of scientific evidence, especially that of a probabilistic nature, has also occurred in England, Australia and in several European countries. Statistical Science in the Courtroom is a collection of articles written by statisticians and legal scholars who have been concerned with problems arising in the use of statistical evidence. A number of articles describe DNA evidence and the difficulties of properly calculating the probability that a random individual's profile would "match" that of the evidence as well as the proper way to intrepret the result. In addition to the technical issues, several authors tell about their experiences in court. A few have become disenchanted with their involvement and describe the events that led them to devote less time to this application. Other articles describe the role of statistical evidence in cases concerning discrimination against minorities, product liability, environmental regulation, the appropriateness and fairness of sentences and how being involved in legal statistics has raised interesting statistical problems requiring further research.

Queueing network models have been widely applied as a powerful tool for modelling, performance evaluation, and prediction of discrete flow systems, such as computer systems, communication networks, production lines, and manufacturing systems. Queueing network models with finite capacity queues and blocking have been introduced and applied as even more realistic models of systems with finite capacity resources and with population constraints. In recent years, research in this field has grown rapidly. Analysis of Queueing Networks with Blocking introduces queueing network models with finite capacity and various types of blocking mechanisms. It gives a comprehensive definition of the analytical model underlying these blocking queueing networks. It surveys exact and approximate analytical solution methods and algorithms and their relevant properties. It also presents various application examples of queueing networks to model computer systems and communication networks. This book is organized in three parts. Part I introduces queueing networks with blocking and various application examples. Part II deals with exact and approximate analysis of queueing networks with blocking and the condition under which the various techniques can be applied. Part III presents a review of various properties of networks with blocking, describing several equivalence properties both between networks with and without blocking and between different blocking types. Approximate solution methods for the buffer allocation problem are presented.

The title High Dimensional Probability is an attempt to describe the many trib utaries of research on Gaussian processes and probability in Banach spaces that started in the early 1970's. In each of these fields it is necessary to consider large classes of stochastic processes under minimal conditions. There are rewards in re search of this sort. One can often gain deep insights, even about familiar processes, by stripping away details that in hindsight turn out to be extraneous. Many of the problems that motivated researchers in the 1970's were solved. But the powerful new tools created for their solution, such as randomization, isoperimetry, concentration of measure, moment and exponential inequalities, chaining, series representations and decoupling turned out to be applicable to other important areas of probability. They led to significant advances in the study of empirical processes and other topics in theoretical statistics and to a new ap proach to the study of aspects of Levy processes and Markov processes in general. Papers on these topics as well as on the continuing study of Gaussian processes and probability in Banach are included in this volume."

The process of developing predictive models includes many stages. Most resources focus on the modeling algorithms but neglect other critical aspects of the modeling process. This book describes techniques for finding the best representations of predictors for modeling and for nding the best subset of predictors for improving model performance. A variety of example data sets are used to illustrate the techniques along with R programs for reproducing the results.

Climate is a paradigm of a complex system. Analysing climate data is an exciting challenge, which is increased by non-normal distributional shape, serial dependence, uneven spacing and timescale uncertainties. This book presents bootstrap resampling as a computing-intensive method able to meet the challenge. It shows the bootstrap to perform reliably in the most important statistical estimation techniques: regression, spectral analysis, extreme values and correlation. This book is written for climatologists and applied statisticians. It explains step by step the bootstrap algorithms (including novel adaptions) and methods for confidence interval construction. It tests the accuracy of the algorithms by means of Monte Carlo experiments. It analyses a large array of climate time series, giving a detailed account on the data and the associated climatological questions. "....comprehensive mathematical and statistical summary of time-series analysis techniques geared towards climate applications...accessible to readers with knowledge of college-level calculus and statistics." (Computers and Geosciences) "A key part of the book that separates it from other time series works is the explicit discussion of time uncertainty...a very useful text for those wishing to understand how to analyse climate time series." (Journal of Time Series Analysis) "...outstanding. One of the best books on advanced practical time series analysis I have seen." (David J. Hand, Past-President Royal Statistical Society)

This book provides an example of a thorough statistical treatment of ocean wave data in space and time. It demonstrates how the flexible framework of Bayesian hierarchical space-time models can be applied to oceanographic processes such as significant wave height in order to describe dependence structures and uncertainties in the data.

This monograph is a research book and it is partly cross-disciplinary. The methodology itself is firmly rooted in the statistical research tradition, based on probability theory and stochastic processes. However, that methodology has been applied to a problem in the field of physical oceanography, analyzing data for significant wave height, which is of crucial importance to ocean engineering disciplines. Indeed, the statistical properties of significant wave height are important for the design, construction and operation of ships and other marine and coastal structures. Furthermore, the book addresses the question of whether climate change has an effect of the ocean wave climate, and if so what that effect might be. Thus, this book is an important contribution to the ongoing debate on climate change, its implications and how to adapt to a changing climate, with a particular focus on the maritime industries and the marine environment.

This book should be of value to anyone with an interest in the statistical modelling of environmental processes, and in particular to those with an interest in the ocean wave climate. It is written on a level that should be understandable to everyone with a basic background in statistics or elementary mathematics, and an introduction to some basic concepts is provided in the appendices for the uninitiated reader. The intended readership includes students and professionals involved in statistics, oceanography, ocean engineering, environmental research, climate sciences and risk assessment. Moreover, the book s findings are relevant for various stakeholders in the maritime industries such as design offices, classification societies, ship owners, yards and operators, flag states and intergovernmental agencies such as the IMO."

Methods of global analysis and stochastic analysis are most often applied in mathematical physics as separate entities, thus forming important directions in the field. However, while combination of the two subject areas is rare, it is fundamental for the consideration of a broader class of problems.

This book develops methods of Global Analysis and Stochastic Analysis such that their combination allows one to have a more or less common treatment for areas of mathematical physics that traditionally are considered as divergent and requiring different methods of investigation.

Global and Stochastic Analysis with Applications to Mathematical Physics covers branches of mathematics that are currently absent in monograph form. Through the demonstration of new topics of investigation and results, both in traditional and more recent problems, this book offers a fresh perspective on ordinary and stochastic differential equations and inclusions (in particular, given in terms of Nelson's mean derivatives) on linear spaces and manifolds. Topics covered include classical mechanics on non-linear configuration spaces, problems of statistical and quantum physics, and hydrodynamics.

A self-contained book that provides a large amount of preliminary material and recent results which will serve to be a useful introduction to the subject and a valuable resource for further research. It will appeal to researchers, graduate and PhD students working in global analysis, stochastic analysis and mathematical physics.

Heterogeneity, or mixtures, are ubiquitous in genetics. Even for data as simple as mono-genic diseases, populations are a mixture of affected and unaffected individuals. Still, most statistical genetic association analyses, designed to map genes for diseases and other genetic traits, ignore this phenomenon. In this book, we document methods that incorporate heterogeneity into the design and analysis of genetic and genomic association data. Among the key qualities of our developed statistics is that they include mixture parameters as part of the statistic, a unique component for tests of association. A critical feature of this work is the inclusion of at least one heterogeneity parameter when performing statistical power and sample size calculations for tests of genetic association. We anticipate that this book will be useful to researchers who want to estimate heterogeneity in their data, develop or apply genetic association statistics where heterogeneity exists, and accurately evaluate statistical power and sample size for genetic association through the application of robust experimental design.

This book contains the lectures given at the Conference on Dynamics and Randomness held at the Centro de Modelamiento Matematico of the Universidad de Chile from December 11th to 15th, 2000. This meeting brought together mathematicians, theoretical physicists and theoretical computer scientists, and graduate students interested in fields re lated to probability theory, ergodic theory, symbolic and topological dynam ics. We would like to express our gratitude to all the participants of the con ference and to the people who contributed to its organization. In particular, to Pierre Collet, Bernard Host and Mike Keane for their scientific advise. VVe want to thank especially the authors of each chapter for their well prepared manuscripts and the stimulating conferences they gave at Santiago. We are also indebted to our sponsors and supporting institutions, whose interest and help was essential to organize this meeting: ECOS-CONICYT, FONDAP Program in Applied Mathematics, French Cooperation, Fundacion Andes, Presidential Fellowship and Universidad de Chile. We are grateful to Ms. Gladys Cavallone for their excellent work during the preparation of the meeting as well as for the considerable task of unifying the typography of the different chapters of this book."

Unique blend of asymptotic theory and small sample practice through simulation experiments and data analysis.

Novel reproducing kernel Hilbert space methods for the analysis of smoothing splines and local polynomials. Leading to uniform error bounds and honest confidence bands for the mean function using smoothing splines

Exhaustive exposition of algorithms, including the Kalman filter, for the computation of smoothing splines of arbitrary order.

1. 1 Introduction This book is written in four major divisions. The first part is the introductory chapters consisting of Chapters 1 and 2. In part two, Chapters 3-11, we develop fuzzy estimation. For example, in Chapter 3 we construct a fuzzy estimator for the mean of a normal distribution assuming the variance is known. More details on fuzzy estimation are in Chapter 3 and then after Chapter 3, Chapters 4-11 can be read independently. Part three, Chapters 12- 20, are on fuzzy hypothesis testing. For example, in Chapter 12 we consider the test Ho : /1 = /10 verses HI : /1 f=- /10 where /1 is the mean of a normal distribution with known variance, but we use a fuzzy number (from Chapter 3) estimator of /1 in the test statistic. More details on fuzzy hypothesis testing are in Chapter 12 and then after Chapter 12 Chapters 13-20 may be read independently. Part four, Chapters 21-27, are on fuzzy regression and fuzzy prediction. We start with fuzzy correlation in Chapter 21. Simple linear regression is the topic in Chapters 22-24 and Chapters 25-27 concentrate on multiple linear regression. Part two (fuzzy estimation) is used in Chapters 22 and 25; and part 3 (fuzzy hypothesis testing) is employed in Chapters 24 and 27. Fuzzy prediction is contained in Chapters 23 and 26. A most important part of our models in fuzzy statistics is that we always start with a random sample producing crisp (non-fuzzy) data.

This thesis presents a new method for following evolving interactions between coupled oscillatory systems of the kind that abound in nature. Examples range from the subcellular level, to ecosystems, through climate dynamics, to the movements of planets and stars. Such systems mutually interact, adjusting their internal clocks, and may correspondingly move between synchronized and non-synchronized states. The thesis describes a way of using Bayesian inference to exploit the presence of random fluctuations, thus analyzing these processes in unprecedented detail. It first develops the basic theory of interacting oscillators whose frequencies are non-constant, and then applies it to the human heart and lungs as an example. Their coupling function can be used to follow with great precision the transitions into and out of synchronization. The method described has the potential to illuminate the ageing process as well as to improve diagnostics in cardiology, anesthesiology and neuroscience, and yields insights into a wide diversity of natural processes.

The aim of this book is to summarize probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs), and to demonstrate that NPPs can be considered a safe method of producing energy, even in light of the Fukushima accident. The book examines level 1 and 2 full power, low power and shutdown probabilistic safety assessment of WWER440 reactors, and summarizes the author s experience gained during the last 35 years. It provides useful examples taken from PSA training courses delivered by the author and organized by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Such training courses were organised in Argonne National Laboratory (Chicago, IL, USA), Abdus Salaam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (Trieste, Italy) in Malaysia, Vietnam and Jordan to support experts from developing countries.

The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for NPPs (nuclear power plants) is an estimation of the risks in absolute terms and in comparison with other risks of the technical and the natural world. Plant-specific PSAs are being prepared for the NPPs and being applied for detection of weaknesses, design improvement and backfitting, incident analysis, accident management, emergency preparedness, prioritization of research & development and support of regulatory activities.

There are three levels of PSA, being performed for full power and low power operation and shutdown operating modes of the plant: Level 1 PSA, Level 2 PSA and Level 3 PSA. The nuclear regulatory authorities do not require the level 3 PSA for NPPs in the member countries of the European Union. So, only limited number of NPPs has available the level 3 PSA in Europe. However, in the light of the Fukushima accident the performance of such analyses is strongly recommended in the future. This book is intended for professionals working in the nuclear industry, and researchers and students interested in nuclear research.

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This research monograph on circular data analysis covers some recent advances in the field, besides providing a brief introduction to, and a review of, existing methods and models. The primary focus is on recent research into topics such as change-point problems, predictive distributions, circular correlation and regression, etc. An important feature of this work is the S-plus subroutines provided for analyzing actual data sets. Coupled with the discussion of new theoretical research, the book should benefit both the researcher and the practitioner.