This book introduces the reader to the use of Monte Carlo methods for solving practical problems in radiation transport, and will also serve as a reference work for practitioners in the field. It assumes the reader has a general knowledge of calculus and radiation physics, and a knowledge of Fortran programming, but assumes no prior knowledge of stochastic methods or statistical physics. The subject is presented by a combination of theoretical development and practical calculations. Because Monte Carlo methods are closely linked to the use of computers, from the beginning the reader is taught to convert the theoretical constructs developed in the text into functional software for use on a personal computer. Example problems provide the reader with an in-depth understanding of the concepts presented and lead to the production of a unique learning tool, a probabilistic framework code that models in a simple manner the features of production of Monte Carlo transport codes. This framework code is developed in stages such that every function is understood, tested, and demonstrated - random sampling, generating random numbers, implementing geometric models, using variance reduction, tracking particles in a random walk, testing the thoroughness with which the problem phase space is sampled, scoring detectors, and obtaining estimates of uncertainty in results. Advanced topics covered include criticality, correlated sampling, adjoint transport, and neutron thermalization. Monte Carlo codes can produce highly precise wrong answers. The probability of this occurring is increased if production codes are run as opaque, black boxes' of software. This text attempts to make Monte Carlo into acomprehensible, usable tool for solving practical transport problems. It is suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students and researchers who wish to expand their knowledge of the Monte Carlo technique.

Semi-infinite programming (briefly: SIP) is an exciting part of mathematical programming. SIP problems include finitely many variables and, in contrast to finite optimization problems, infinitely many inequality constraints. Prob lems of this type naturally arise in approximation theory, optimal control, and at numerous engineering applications where the model contains at least one inequality constraint for each value of a parameter and the parameter, repre senting time, space, frequency etc., varies in a given domain. The treatment of such problems requires particular theoretical and numerical techniques. The theory in SIP as well as the number of numerical SIP methods and appli cations have expanded very fast during the last years. Therefore, the main goal of this monograph is to provide a collection of tutorial and survey type articles which represent a substantial part of the contemporary body of knowledge in SIP. We are glad that leading researchers have contributed to this volume and that their articles are covering a wide range of important topics in this subject. It is our hope that both experienced students and scientists will be well advised to consult this volume. We got the idea for this volume when we were organizing the semi-infinite pro gramming workshop which was held in Cottbus, Germany, in September 1996."

The pioneering research of Hirotugu Akaike has an international reputation for profoundly affecting how data and time series are analyzed and modelled and is highly regarded by the statistical and technological communities of Japan and the world. His 1974 paper "A new look at the statistical model identification" (IEEE Trans Automatic Control, AC-19, 716-723) is one of the most frequently cited papers in the area of engineering, technology, and applied sciences (according to a 1981 Citation Classic of the Institute of Scientific Information). It introduced the broad scientific community to model identification using the methods of Akaike's criterion AIC. The AIC method is cited and applied in almost every area of physical and social science. The best way to learn about the seminal ideas of pioneering researchers is to read their original papers. This book reprints 29 papers of Akaike's more than 140 papers. This book of papers by Akaike is a tribute to his outstanding career and a service to provide students and researchers with access to Akaike's innovative and influential ideas and applications. To provide a commentary on the career of Akaike, the motivations of his ideas, and his many remarkable honors and prizes, this book reprints "A Conversation with Hirotugu Akaike" by David F. Findley and Emanuel Parzen, published in 1995 in the journal Statistical Science. This survey of Akaike's career provides each of us with a role model for how to have an impact on society by stimulating applied researchers to implement new statistical methods.

Over the last ten years the introduction of computer intensive statistical methods has opened new horizons concerning the probability models that can be fitted to genetic data, the scale of the problems that can be tackled and the nature of the questions that can be posed. In particular, the application of Bayesian and likelihood methods to statistical genetics has been facilitated enormously by these methods. Techniques generally referred to as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) have played a major role in this process, stimulating synergies among scientists in different fields, such as mathematicians, probabilists, statisticians, computer scientists and statistical geneticists. Specifically, the MCMC "revolution" has made a deep impact in quantitative genetics. This can be seen, for example, in the vast number of papers dealing with complex hierarchical models and models for detection of genes affecting quantitative or meristic traits in plants, animals and humans that have been published recently. This book, suitable for numerate biologists and for applied statisticians, provides the foundations of likelihood, Bayesian and MCMC methods in the context of genetic analysis of quantitative traits. Most students in biology and agriculture lack the formal background needed to learn these modern biometrical techniques. Although a number of excellent texts in these areas have become available in recent years, the basic ideas and tools are typically described in a technically demanding style, and have been written by and addressed to professional statisticians. For this reason, considerable more detail is offered than what may be warranted for a more mathematically apt audience. The book is divided into four parts. Part I gives a review of probability and distribution theory. Parts II and III present methods of inference and MCMC methods. Part IV discusses several models that can be applied in quantitative genetics, primarily from a Bayesian perspective. An effort has been made to relate biological to statistical parameters throughout, and examples are used profusely to motivate the developments. Daniel Sorensen is Research Leader in Biometrical Genetics, at the Department of Animal Breeding and Genetics in the Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences. Daniel Gianola is Professor in the Animal Sciences, Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, and Dairy Science Departments of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Gianola and Sorensen pioneered the introduction of Bayesian and MCMC methods in animal breeding. The authors have published and lectured extensively in applications of statistics to quantitative genetics.

Volume 1: (edited by Keith W. Hipel) In this landmark collection of papers, highly respected scientists and engineers from around the world present the latest research results in extreme value analyses for floods and droughts. Two approaches that are commonly employed in flood frequency analyses are the maximum annual flood and partial duration series or peak over threshold procedures. Recent theoretical advances as well as illustrative applications are described in detail for each of these approaches. Additionally, droughts and storms are systematically studied using appropriate probabilistic models. A major part of the volume is devoted to frequency analyses and fitting extreme value distributions to hydrological data. Other thought-provoking topics include regionalization techniques, distributed models, entropy and fractal analysis. Volume 1 is of interest to researchers, teachers, students and practitioners who wish to place themselves at the leading edge of flood frequency and drought analyses. Volume 2: (edited by Keith W. Hipel) World renowned scientists present valuable contributions to stochastic and statistical modelling of groundwater and surface water systems. The philosophy of probabilistic modelling in the hydrological sciences is put into proper perspective and the importance of stochastic differential equations in the environmental sciences is explained and illustrated. The new research ideas put forward in groundwater modelling will assist decision makers in tackling challenging problems such as controlling pollution of underground aquifers and obtaining adequate water supplies. Additionally, different types of stochastic models are used in modelling a range ofinteresting surface water problems. Other topics covered in this landmark volume include stochastic optimization, moment analysis, carbon dioxide modelling and rainfall prediction. Volume 2 is of interest to researchers, teachers, students and practitioners who wish to be at the leading edge of stochastic and statistical modelling in the environmental sciences. Volume 3: (edited by Keith W. Hipel; A. Ian McLeod; U.S. Panu; Vijay P. Singh) International experts from around the globe present a rich variety of intriguing developments in time series analysis in hydrology and environmental engineering. Climatic change is of great concern to everyone and significant contributions to this challenging research topic are put forward by internationally renowned authors. A range of interesting applications in hydrological forecasting are given for case studies in reservoir operation in North America, Asia and South America. Additionally, progress in entropy research is described and entropy concepts are applied to various water resource systems problems. Neural networks are employed for forecasting runoff and water demand. Moreover, graphical, nonparametric and parametric trend analyses methods are compared and applied to water quality time series. Other topics covered in this landmark volume include spatial analyses, spectral analyses and different methods for stream-flow modelling. Volume 3 constitutes an invaluable resource for researchers, teachers, students and practitioners who wish to be at the forefront of time series analysis in the environmental sciences. Volume 4: (edited by Keith W. Hipel; Liping Fang) In this landmark set of papers, experts from around the world present the latest andmost promising approaches to both the theory and practice of effective environmental management. To achieve sustainable development, organizations and individual citizens must comply with environmental laws and regulations. Accordingly, a major contribution of this book is the presentation of original techniques for designing effective environmental policies, regulations, inspection procedures and monitoring systems. Interesting methods for modelling risk and decision making problems are discussed from an environmental management perspective. Moreover, knowledge-based techniques for handling environmental problems are also investigated. Finally, the last main part of the book describes optimal approaches to reservoir operation and control that take into account appropriate multiple objectives. Volume 4 is of direct interest to researchers, teachers, students and practitioners concerned with the latest developments in environmental management and sustainable development.

VII Preface In many fields of mathematics, geometry has established itself as a fruitful method and common language for describing basic phenomena and problems as well as suggesting ways of solutions. Especially in pure mathematics this is ob vious and well-known (examples are the much discussed interplay between lin ear algebra and analytical geometry and several problems in multidimensional analysis). On the other hand, many specialists from applied mathematics seem to prefer more formal analytical and numerical methods and representations. Nevertheless, very often the internal development of disciplines from applied mathematics led to geometric models, and occasionally breakthroughs were b ed on geometric insights. An excellent example is the Klee-Minty cube, solving a problem of linear programming by transforming it into a geomet ric problem. Also the development of convex programming in recent decades demonstrated the power of methods that evolved within the field of convex geometry. The present book focuses on three applied disciplines: control theory, location science and computational geometry. It is our aim to demonstrate how methods and topics from convex geometry in a wider sense (separation theory of convex cones, Minkowski geometry, convex partitionings, etc.) can help to solve various problems from these disciplines."

This book provides an account for the non-specialist of the circle of ideas, results and techniques, which grew out in the study of Brownian motion and random obstacles. It also includes an overview of known results and connections with other areas of random media, taking a highly original and personal approach throughout.

This volume covers recent developments in the design, operation, and management of mobile telecommunication and computer systems.

Uncertainty regarding loading and system parameters leads to challenging optimization and robustness issues. Stochastic modeling combined with optimization theory ensures the optimum end-to-end performance of telecommunication or computer network systems. In view of the diverse design options possible, supporting models have many adjustable parameters and choosing the best set for a particular performance objective is delicate and time-consuming. An optimization based approach determines the optimal possible allocation for these parameters.

Researchers and graduate students working at the interface of telecommunications and operations research will benefit from this book. Due to the practical approach, this book will also serve as a reference tool for scientists and engineers in telecommunication and computer networks who depend upon optimization.

This essential textbook presents the basics of dental statistics in an accessible way, combining explanation in non-technical language with key messages, practical examples, suggestions for further reading and exercises complete with detailed solutions. There is an emphasis on the principles and application of statistics without the use of algebra. The statistical material is strongly rooted in practical examples drawn from a wide range of journal articles representing both dental health care delivery and clinical dentistry. The perspective is international, with papers drawn from a variety of settings around the world. Many articles are recent and report contemporary developments in dental care. The intended audience includes dental students and practitioners, those engaged in dental research and other health care professionals. For students and tutors, it covers the undergraduate curriculum, and the exercises and solutions make it ideal for course use. For practitioners and researchers it provides the first principles of study design, accessing the dental literature, and the preparation and publication of original dental research.

LONGLISTED FOR THE CRICKET SOCIETY AND MCC BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD 2023. "Fascinating" The Observer "Illuminating" The Times "Crickonomics is packed with sufficient statistical analysis to have the most ardent cricket geek purring with pleasure" Mail on Sunday "An insightful, Hawk-Eye-like analysis of the numbers behind cricket" Financial Times An engaging tour of the modern game from an award-winning journalist and the economist who co-authored the bestselling Soccernomics. Why does England rely on private schools for their batters - but not their bowlers? How did demographics shape India's rise? Why have women often been the game's great innovators? Why does South Africa struggle to produce Black Test batters? And how does the weather impact who wins? Crickonomics explores all of this and much more - including how Jayasuriya and Gilchrist transformed Test batting but T20 didn't; English cricket's great missed opportunity to have a league structure like football; why batters are paid more than bowlers; how Afghanistan is transforming German cricket; what the rest of the world can learn from New Zealand and even the Barmy Army's importance to Test cricket. This incisive book will entertain and surprise all cricket lovers. It might even change how you watch the game.

About 60 scientists and students attended the 96' International Conference on Nonlinear Programming, which was held September 2-5 at Institute of Compu tational Mathematics and Scientific/Engineering Computing (ICMSEC), Chi nese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. 25 participants were from outside China and 35 from China. The conference was to celebrate the 60's birthday of Professor M.J.D. Powell (Fellow of Royal Society, University of Cambridge) for his many contributions to nonlinear optimization. On behalf of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, vice president Professor Zhi hong Xu attended the opening ceremony of the conference to express his warm welcome to all the participants. After the opening ceremony, Professor M.J.D. Powell gave the keynote lecture "The use of band matrices for second derivative approximations in trust region methods." 13 other invited lectures on recent advances of nonlinear programming were given during the four day meeting: "Primal-dual methods for nonconvex optimization" by M. H. Wright (SIAM President, Bell Labs), "Interior point trajectories in semidefinite programming" by D. Goldfarb (Columbia University, Editor-in-Chief for Series A of Mathe matical Programming), "An approach to derivative free optimization" by A."

This book provides a panoramic view of theory and applications of Ageing and Dependence in the use of mathematical methods in reliability and survival analysis. Ageing and dependence are important characteristics in reliability and survival analysis. They affect decisions with regard to maintenance, repair/replacement, price setting, warranties, medical studies, and other areas. Most of the works containing the topics covered here are theoretical in nature. However, this book offers applications, exercises, and examples. It serves as a reference for professors and researchers involved in reliability and survival analysis.

Statistical Methods in Customer Relationship Management focuses on the quantitative and modeling aspects of customer management strategies that lead to future firm profitability, with emphasis on developing an understanding of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) models as the guiding concept for profitable customer management. To understand and explore the functioning of CRM models, this book traces the management strategies throughout a customer s tenure with a firm. Furthermore, the book explores in detail CRM models for customer acquisition, customer retention, customer acquisition and retention, customer churn, and customer win back. Statistical Methods in Customer Relationship Management: * Provides an overview of a CRM system, introducing key concepts and metrics needed to understand and implement these models. * Focuses on five CRM models: customer acquisition, customer retention, customer churn, and customer win back with supporting case studies. * Explores each model in detail, from investigating the need for CRM models to looking at the future of the models. * Presents models and concepts that span across the introductory, advanced, and specialist levels. Academics and practitioners involved in the area of CRM as well as instructors of applied statistics and quantitative marketing courses will benefit from this book.

Detailed lecture notes on six topics at the forefront of current research in numerical analysis and applied mathematics, with each set of notes presenting a self-contained guide to a current research area and supplemented by an extensive bibliography. In addition, most of the notes contain detailed proofs of the key results. They start from a level suitable for first year graduates in applied mathematics, mathematical analysis or numerical analysis, and proceed to current research topics. Readers will thus quickly gain an insight into the important results and techniques in each area without recourse to the large research literature. Current (unsolved) problems are also described, and directions for future research given.

The book will serve primarily as a user's manual or desk reference for the expert witness-lawyer team and secondarily as a textbook or supplemental textbook for upper level undergraduate statistics students. It starts with two articles by masters of the trade, Paul Meier and Franklin Fisher. It then explains the distinction between the Frye and Daughbert standards for expert testimony, and how these standards play out in court. The bulk of the book is concerned with individual cases ranging over a wide variety of topics, such as electronic draw poker (does it require skill to play), employment discrimination (how to tell whether an employer discriminated against older workers in deciding whom to fire), driving while black (did the New Jersey State Police disproportionately stop blacks), jury representativeness (is a jury a representative cross section of the community), juries hearing death penalty cases (are such juries biased toward a guilty verdict, and does the Supreme Court care), the civil incarceration of violent sexual offenders after having served their jail sentences (can future dangerousness be predicted), do data from multiple choice examinations support an allegation of copying, whether rental agents in an apartment complex steered African-American prospects to one part of the complex, how much tax is owed after an audit that used a random sample, whether an inventor falsified his notebook in an effort to fool the Patent Office, and whether ballots had been tampered with in an election. The book concludes with two recent English cases, one in which a woman was accused of murdering her infant sons because both died of "cot death" or "sudden death syndrome", (she was convicted, but later exonerated), and how Bayesian analyses can (or more precisely), cannot be presented in UK courts. In each study, the statistical analysis is shaped to address the relevant legal questions, and draws on whatever methods in statistics might shed light on those questions.

This book is concerned with a class of discrete-time stochastic control processes known as controlled Markov processes (CMP's), also known as Markov decision processes or Markov dynamic programs. Starting in the mid-1950swith Richard Bellman, many contributions to CMP's have been made, and applications to engineering, statistics and operations research, among other areas, have also been developed. The purpose of this book is to present some recent developments on the theory of adaptive CMP's, i. e., CMP's that depend on unknown parameters. Thus at each decision time, the controller or decision-maker must estimate the true parameter values, and then adapt the control actions to the estimated values. We do not intend to describe all aspects of stochastic adaptive control; rather, the selection of material reflects our own research interests. The prerequisite for this book is a knowledgeof real analysis and prob ability theory at the level of, say, Ash (1972) or Royden (1968), but no previous knowledge of control or decision processes is required. The pre sentation, on the other hand, is meant to beself-contained, in the sensethat whenever a result from analysisor probability is used, it is usually stated in full and references are supplied for further discussion, if necessary. Several appendices are provided for this purpose. The material is divided into six chapters. Chapter 1 contains the basic definitions about the stochastic control problems we are interested in; a brief description of some applications is also provided."

Main concepts of quasi-stationary distributions (QSDs) for killed processes are the focus of the present volume. For diffusions, the killing is at the boundary and for dynamical systems there is a trap. The authors present the QSDs as the ones that allow describing the long-term behavior conditioned to not being killed. Studies in this research area started with Kolmogorov and Yaglom and in the last few decades have received a great deal of attention. The authors provide the exponential distribution property of the killing time for QSDs, present the more general result on their existence and study the process of trajectories that survive forever. For birth-and-death chains and diffusions, the existence of a single or a continuum of QSDs is described. They study the convergence to the extremal QSD and give the classification of the survival process. In this monograph, the authors discuss Gibbs QSDs for symbolic systems and absolutely continuous QSDs for repellers. The findings described are relevant to researchers in the fields of Markov chains, diffusions, potential theory, dynamical systems, and in areas where extinction is a central concept. The theory is illustrated with numerous examples. The volume uniquely presents the distribution behavior of individuals who survive in a decaying population for a very long time. It also provides the background for applications in mathematical ecology, statistical physics, computer sciences, and economics.

1.1 Introduction This book is written in the following divisions: (1) the introductory chapters consisting of Chapters 1 and 2; (2) introduction to fuzzy probability in Ch- ters3-5; (3)introductiontofuzzyestimationinChapters6-11; (4)fuzzy/crisp estimatorsofprobabilitydensity(mass)functionsbasedonafuzzymaximum entropyprincipleinChapters12-14; (5)introductiontofuzzyhypothesiste- ing in Chapters 15-18; (6) fuzzy correlation and regression in Chapters 19-25; (7) Chapters 26 and 27 are about a fuzzy ANOVA model; (8) a fuzzy esti- tor of the median in nonparametric statistics in Chapter 28; and (9) random fuzzy numbers with applications to Monte Carlo studies in Chapter 29. First we need to be familiar with fuzzy sets. All you need to know about fuzzy sets for this book comprises Chapter 2. For a beginning introduction to fuzzysetsandfuzzylogicsee 8]. Oneotheritemrelatingtofuzzysets, needed infuzzyhypothesistesting, isalsoinChapter2: howwewilldeterminewhich of the following three possibilities is trueM N or M? N, for two fuzzy numbers M, N. TheintroductiontofuzzyprobabilityinChapters3-5isbasedonthebook 1] and the reader is referred to that book for more information, especially applications. Whatisnewhereis: (1)usinganonlinearoptimizationprogram in Maple 13] to solve certain optimization problems in fuzzy probability, where previously we used a graphical method; and (2) a new algorithm, suitable for using only pencil and paper, for solving some restricted fuzzy arithmetic problems. The introduction to fuzzy estimation is based on the book 3] and we refer the interested reader to that book for more about fuzzy estimators.

Most probability problems involve random variables indexed by space and/or time. These problems almost always have  a version in which space and/or time are taken to be discrete. This volume deals with areas in which the discrete version is more natural than the continuous one, perhaps even the only one than can be formulated without complicated constructions and machinery. The 5 papers of this volume discuss problems in which there has been significant progress in the last few years; they are motivated by, or have been developed in parallel with, statistical physics. They include questions about asymptotic shape for stochastic growth models and for random clusters; existence, location and properties of phase transitions; speed of convergence to equilibrium in Markov chains, and in particular for Markov chains based on models with a phase transition; cut-off phenomena for random walks. The articles can be read independently of each other. Their unifying theme is that of models built on discrete spaces or graphs. Such models are often easy to formulate. Correspondingly, the book requires comparatively little previous knowledge of the machinery of probability.

This new edition includes the latest advances and developments in computational probability involving A Probability Programming Language (APPL). The book examines and presents, in a systematic manner, computational probability methods that encompass data structures and algorithms. The developed techniques address problems that require exact probability calculations, many of which have been considered intractable in the past. The book addresses the plight of the probabilist by providing algorithms to perform calculations associated with random variables. Computational Probability: Algorithms and Applications in the Mathematical Sciences, 2nd Edition begins with an introductory chapter that contains short examples involving the elementary use of APPL. Chapter 2 reviews the Maple data structures and functions necessary to implement APPL. This is followed by a discussion of the development of the data structures and algorithms (Chapters 3-6 for continuous random variables and Chapters 7-9 for discrete random variables) used in APPL. The book concludes with Chapters 10-15 introducing a sampling of various applications in the mathematical sciences. This book should appeal to researchers in the mathematical sciences with an interest in applied probability and instructors using the book for a special topics course in computational probability taught in a mathematics, statistics, operations research, management science, or industrial engineering department.

Modern physics is confronted with a large variety of complex spatial patterns. Although both spatial statisticians and statistical physicists study random geometrical structures, there has been only little interaction between the two up to now because of different traditions and languages. This volume aims to change this situation by presenting in a clear way fundamental concepts of spatial statistics which are of great potential value for condensed matter physics and materials sciences in general, and for porous media, percolation and Gibbs processes in particular. Geometric aspects, in particular ideas of stochastic and integral geometry, play a central role throughout. With nonspecialist researchers and graduate students also in mind, prominent physicists give an excellent introduction here to modern ideas of statistical physics pertinent to this exciting field of research.

Graduate students and postgraduates in Mathematics, Engineering and the Natural Sciences want to understand Applied Mathematics for the solution of everyday problems. Scholars of Roland Bulirsch working at universities, at research institutions and in industry combine research and review papers in this anthology. Their work is summed up under the title "From Nano to Space Applied Mathematics Inspired by Roland Bulirsch." More than 20 contributions are divided into scales: nano, micro, macro, space and real life. The contributions survey current research and present case studies very interesting and informative for both graduate students and postgraduates. The contributions show how modern Applied Mathematics influences our everyday lives. Several contributions include complex graphics and illustrations, many of them in color."

The current financial crisis has revealed serious flaws in models, measures and, potentially, theories, that failed to provide forward-looking expectations for upcoming losses originated from market risks. The Proceedings of the Perm Winter School 2011 propose insights on many key issues and advances in financial markets modeling and risk measurement aiming to bridge the gap. The key addressed topics include: hierarchical and ultrametric models of financial crashes, dynamic hedging, arbitrage free modeling the term structure of interest rates, agent based modeling of order flow, asset pricing in a fractional market, hedge funds performance and many more.