This book is concerned with a class of discrete-time stochastic control processes known as controlled Markov processes (CMP's), also known as Markov decision processes or Markov dynamic programs. Starting in the mid-1950swith Richard Bellman, many contributions to CMP's have been made, and applications to engineering, statistics and operations research, among other areas, have also been developed. The purpose of this book is to present some recent developments on the theory of adaptive CMP's, i. e., CMP's that depend on unknown parameters. Thus at each decision time, the controller or decision-maker must estimate the true parameter values, and then adapt the control actions to the estimated values. We do not intend to describe all aspects of stochastic adaptive control; rather, the selection of material reflects our own research interests. The prerequisite for this book is a knowledgeof real analysis and prob ability theory at the level of, say, Ash (1972) or Royden (1968), but no previous knowledge of control or decision processes is required. The pre sentation, on the other hand, is meant to beself-contained, in the sensethat whenever a result from analysisor probability is used, it is usually stated in full and references are supplied for further discussion, if necessary. Several appendices are provided for this purpose. The material is divided into six chapters. Chapter 1 contains the basic definitions about the stochastic control problems we are interested in; a brief description of some applications is also provided."

About 60 scientists and students attended the 96' International Conference on Nonlinear Programming, which was held September 2-5 at Institute of Compu tational Mathematics and Scientific/Engineering Computing (ICMSEC), Chi nese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. 25 participants were from outside China and 35 from China. The conference was to celebrate the 60's birthday of Professor M.J.D. Powell (Fellow of Royal Society, University of Cambridge) for his many contributions to nonlinear optimization. On behalf of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, vice president Professor Zhi hong Xu attended the opening ceremony of the conference to express his warm welcome to all the participants. After the opening ceremony, Professor M.J.D. Powell gave the keynote lecture "The use of band matrices for second derivative approximations in trust region methods." 13 other invited lectures on recent advances of nonlinear programming were given during the four day meeting: "Primal-dual methods for nonconvex optimization" by M. H. Wright (SIAM President, Bell Labs), "Interior point trajectories in semidefinite programming" by D. Goldfarb (Columbia University, Editor-in-Chief for Series A of Mathe matical Programming), "An approach to derivative free optimization" by A."

This book provides a panoramic view of theory and applications of Ageing and Dependence in the use of mathematical methods in reliability and survival analysis. Ageing and dependence are important characteristics in reliability and survival analysis. They affect decisions with regard to maintenance, repair/replacement, price setting, warranties, medical studies, and other areas. Most of the works containing the topics covered here are theoretical in nature. However, this book offers applications, exercises, and examples. It serves as a reference for professors and researchers involved in reliability and survival analysis.

Detailed lecture notes on six topics at the forefront of current research in numerical analysis and applied mathematics, with each set of notes presenting a self-contained guide to a current research area and supplemented by an extensive bibliography. In addition, most of the notes contain detailed proofs of the key results. They start from a level suitable for first year graduates in applied mathematics, mathematical analysis or numerical analysis, and proceed to current research topics. Readers will thus quickly gain an insight into the important results and techniques in each area without recourse to the large research literature. Current (unsolved) problems are also described, and directions for future research given.

The book will serve primarily as a user's manual or desk reference for the expert witness-lawyer team and secondarily as a textbook or supplemental textbook for upper level undergraduate statistics students. It starts with two articles by masters of the trade, Paul Meier and Franklin Fisher. It then explains the distinction between the Frye and Daughbert standards for expert testimony, and how these standards play out in court. The bulk of the book is concerned with individual cases ranging over a wide variety of topics, such as electronic draw poker (does it require skill to play), employment discrimination (how to tell whether an employer discriminated against older workers in deciding whom to fire), driving while black (did the New Jersey State Police disproportionately stop blacks), jury representativeness (is a jury a representative cross section of the community), juries hearing death penalty cases (are such juries biased toward a guilty verdict, and does the Supreme Court care), the civil incarceration of violent sexual offenders after having served their jail sentences (can future dangerousness be predicted), do data from multiple choice examinations support an allegation of copying, whether rental agents in an apartment complex steered African-American prospects to one part of the complex, how much tax is owed after an audit that used a random sample, whether an inventor falsified his notebook in an effort to fool the Patent Office, and whether ballots had been tampered with in an election. The book concludes with two recent English cases, one in which a woman was accused of murdering her infant sons because both died of "cot death" or "sudden death syndrome", (she was convicted, but later exonerated), and how Bayesian analyses can (or more precisely), cannot be presented in UK courts. In each study, the statistical analysis is shaped to address the relevant legal questions, and draws on whatever methods in statistics might shed light on those questions.

Main concepts of quasi-stationary distributions (QSDs) for killed processes are the focus of the present volume. For diffusions, the killing is at the boundary and for dynamical systems there is a trap. The authors present the QSDs as the ones that allow describing the long-term behavior conditioned to not being killed. Studies in this research area started with Kolmogorov and Yaglom and in the last few decades have received a great deal of attention. The authors provide the exponential distribution property of the killing time for QSDs, present the more general result on their existence and study the process of trajectories that survive forever. For birth-and-death chains and diffusions, the existence of a single or a continuum of QSDs is described. They study the convergence to the extremal QSD and give the classification of the survival process. In this monograph, the authors discuss Gibbs QSDs for symbolic systems and absolutely continuous QSDs for repellers. The findings described are relevant to researchers in the fields of Markov chains, diffusions, potential theory, dynamical systems, and in areas where extinction is a central concept. The theory is illustrated with numerous examples. The volume uniquely presents the distribution behavior of individuals who survive in a decaying population for a very long time. It also provides the background for applications in mathematical ecology, statistical physics, computer sciences, and economics.

1.1 Introduction This book is written in the following divisions: (1) the introductory chapters consisting of Chapters 1 and 2; (2) introduction to fuzzy probability in Ch- ters3-5; (3)introductiontofuzzyestimationinChapters6-11; (4)fuzzy/crisp estimatorsofprobabilitydensity(mass)functionsbasedonafuzzymaximum entropyprincipleinChapters12-14; (5)introductiontofuzzyhypothesiste- ing in Chapters 15-18; (6) fuzzy correlation and regression in Chapters 19-25; (7) Chapters 26 and 27 are about a fuzzy ANOVA model; (8) a fuzzy esti- tor of the median in nonparametric statistics in Chapter 28; and (9) random fuzzy numbers with applications to Monte Carlo studies in Chapter 29. First we need to be familiar with fuzzy sets. All you need to know about fuzzy sets for this book comprises Chapter 2. For a beginning introduction to fuzzysetsandfuzzylogicsee 8]. Oneotheritemrelatingtofuzzysets, needed infuzzyhypothesistesting, isalsoinChapter2: howwewilldeterminewhich of the following three possibilities is trueM N or M? N, for two fuzzy numbers M, N. TheintroductiontofuzzyprobabilityinChapters3-5isbasedonthebook 1] and the reader is referred to that book for more information, especially applications. Whatisnewhereis: (1)usinganonlinearoptimizationprogram in Maple 13] to solve certain optimization problems in fuzzy probability, where previously we used a graphical method; and (2) a new algorithm, suitable for using only pencil and paper, for solving some restricted fuzzy arithmetic problems. The introduction to fuzzy estimation is based on the book 3] and we refer the interested reader to that book for more about fuzzy estimators.

Most probability problems involve random variables indexed by space and/or time. These problems almost always have  a version in which space and/or time are taken to be discrete. This volume deals with areas in which the discrete version is more natural than the continuous one, perhaps even the only one than can be formulated without complicated constructions and machinery. The 5 papers of this volume discuss problems in which there has been significant progress in the last few years; they are motivated by, or have been developed in parallel with, statistical physics. They include questions about asymptotic shape for stochastic growth models and for random clusters; existence, location and properties of phase transitions; speed of convergence to equilibrium in Markov chains, and in particular for Markov chains based on models with a phase transition; cut-off phenomena for random walks. The articles can be read independently of each other. Their unifying theme is that of models built on discrete spaces or graphs. Such models are often easy to formulate. Correspondingly, the book requires comparatively little previous knowledge of the machinery of probability.

This new edition includes the latest advances and developments in computational probability involving A Probability Programming Language (APPL). The book examines and presents, in a systematic manner, computational probability methods that encompass data structures and algorithms. The developed techniques address problems that require exact probability calculations, many of which have been considered intractable in the past. The book addresses the plight of the probabilist by providing algorithms to perform calculations associated with random variables. Computational Probability: Algorithms and Applications in the Mathematical Sciences, 2nd Edition begins with an introductory chapter that contains short examples involving the elementary use of APPL. Chapter 2 reviews the Maple data structures and functions necessary to implement APPL. This is followed by a discussion of the development of the data structures and algorithms (Chapters 3-6 for continuous random variables and Chapters 7-9 for discrete random variables) used in APPL. The book concludes with Chapters 10-15 introducing a sampling of various applications in the mathematical sciences. This book should appeal to researchers in the mathematical sciences with an interest in applied probability and instructors using the book for a special topics course in computational probability taught in a mathematics, statistics, operations research, management science, or industrial engineering department.

Modern physics is confronted with a large variety of complex spatial patterns. Although both spatial statisticians and statistical physicists study random geometrical structures, there has been only little interaction between the two up to now because of different traditions and languages. This volume aims to change this situation by presenting in a clear way fundamental concepts of spatial statistics which are of great potential value for condensed matter physics and materials sciences in general, and for porous media, percolation and Gibbs processes in particular. Geometric aspects, in particular ideas of stochastic and integral geometry, play a central role throughout. With nonspecialist researchers and graduate students also in mind, prominent physicists give an excellent introduction here to modern ideas of statistical physics pertinent to this exciting field of research.

The series is devoted to the publication of monographs and high-level textbooks in mathematics, mathematical methods and their applications. Apart from covering important areas of current interest, a major aim is to make topics of an interdisciplinary nature accessible to the non-specialist. The works in this series are addressed to advanced students and researchers in mathematics and theoretical physics. In addition, it can serve as a guide for lectures and seminars on a graduate level. The series de Gruyter Studies in Mathematics was founded ca. 35 years ago by the late Professor Heinz Bauer and Professor Peter Gabriel with the aim to establish a series of monographs and textbooks of high standard, written by scholars with an international reputation presenting current fields of research in pure and applied mathematics. While the editorial board of the Studies has changed with the years, the aspirations of the Studies are unchanged. In times of rapid growth of mathematical knowledge carefully written monographs and textbooks written by experts are needed more than ever, not least to pave the way for the next generation of mathematicians. In this sense the editorial board and the publisher of the Studies are devoted to continue the Studies as a service to the mathematical community. Please submit any book proposals to Niels Jacob.

Graduate students and postgraduates in Mathematics, Engineering and the Natural Sciences want to understand Applied Mathematics for the solution of everyday problems. Scholars of Roland Bulirsch working at universities, at research institutions and in industry combine research and review papers in this anthology. Their work is summed up under the title "From Nano to Space Applied Mathematics Inspired by Roland Bulirsch." More than 20 contributions are divided into scales: nano, micro, macro, space and real life. The contributions survey current research and present case studies very interesting and informative for both graduate students and postgraduates. The contributions show how modern Applied Mathematics influences our everyday lives. Several contributions include complex graphics and illustrations, many of them in color."

The current financial crisis has revealed serious flaws in models, measures and, potentially, theories, that failed to provide forward-looking expectations for upcoming losses originated from market risks. The Proceedings of the Perm Winter School 2011 propose insights on many key issues and advances in financial markets modeling and risk measurement aiming to bridge the gap. The key addressed topics include: hierarchical and ultrametric models of financial crashes, dynamic hedging, arbitrage free modeling the term structure of interest rates, agent based modeling of order flow, asset pricing in a fractional market, hedge funds performance and many more.

This book provides a general framework for learning sparse graphical models with conditional independence tests. It includes complete treatments for Gaussian, Poisson, multinomial, and mixed data; unified treatments for covariate adjustments, data integration, and network comparison; unified treatments for missing data and heterogeneous data; efficient methods for joint estimation of multiple graphical models; effective methods of high-dimensional variable selection; and effective methods of high-dimensional inference. The methods possess an embarrassingly parallel structure in performing conditional independence tests, and the computation can be significantly accelerated by running in parallel on a multi-core computer or a parallel architecture. This book is intended to serve researchers and scientists interested in high-dimensional statistics, and graduate students in broad data science disciplines. Key Features: A general framework for learning sparse graphical models with conditional independence tests Complete treatments for different types of data, Gaussian, Poisson, multinomial, and mixed data Unified treatments for data integration, network comparison, and covariate adjustment Unified treatments for missing data and heterogeneous data Efficient methods for joint estimation of multiple graphical models Effective methods of high-dimensional variable selection Effective methods of high-dimensional inference

Volume 1: (edited by Keith W. Hipel) In this landmark collection of papers, highly respected scientists and engineers from around the world present the latest research results in extreme value analyses for floods and droughts. Two approaches that are commonly employed in flood frequency analyses are the maximum annual flood and partial duration series or peak over threshold procedures. Recent theoretical advances as well as illustrative applications are described in detail for each of these approaches. Additionally, droughts and storms are systematically studied using appropriate probabilistic models. A major part of the volume is devoted to frequency analyses and fitting extreme value distributions to hydrological data. Other thought-provoking topics include regionalization techniques, distributed models, entropy and fractal analysis. Volume 1 is of interest to researchers, teachers, students and practitioners who wish to place themselves at the leading edge of flood frequency and drought analyses. Volume 2: (edited by Keith W. Hipel) World renowned scientists present valuable contributions to stochastic and statistical modelling of groundwater and surface water systems. The philosophy of probabilistic modelling in the hydrological sciences is put into proper perspective and the importance of stochastic differential equations in the environmental sciences is explained and illustrated. The new research ideas put forward in groundwater modelling will assist decision makers in tackling challenging problems such as controlling pollution of underground aquifers and obtaining adequate water supplies. Additionally, different types of stochastic models are used in modelling a range ofinteresting surface water problems. Other topics covered in this landmark volume include stochastic optimization, moment analysis, carbon dioxide modelling and rainfall prediction. Volume 2 is of interest to researchers, teachers, students and practitioners who wish to be at the leading edge of stochastic and statistical modelling in the environmental sciences. Volume 3: (edited by Keith W. Hipel; A. Ian McLeod; U.S. Panu; Vijay P. Singh) International experts from around the globe present a rich variety of intriguing developments in time series analysis in hydrology and environmental engineering. Climatic change is of great concern to everyone and significant contributions to this challenging research topic are put forward by internationally renowned authors. A range of interesting applications in hydrological forecasting are given for case studies in reservoir operation in North America, Asia and South America. Additionally, progress in entropy research is described and entropy concepts are applied to various water resource systems problems. Neural networks are employed for forecasting runoff and water demand. Moreover, graphical, nonparametric and parametric trend analyses methods are compared and applied to water quality time series. Other topics covered in this landmark volume include spatial analyses, spectral analyses and different methods for stream-flow modelling. Volume 3 constitutes an invaluable resource for researchers, teachers, students and practitioners who wish to be at the forefront of time series analysis in the environmental sciences. Volume 4: (edited by Keith W. Hipel; Liping Fang) In this landmark set of papers, experts from around the world present the latest andmost promising approaches to both the theory and practice of effective environmental management. To achieve sustainable development, organizations and individual citizens must comply with environmental laws and regulations. Accordingly, a major contribution of this book is the presentation of original techniques for designing effective environmental policies, regulations, inspection procedures and monitoring systems. Interesting methods for modelling risk and decision making problems are discussed from an environmental management perspective. Moreover, knowledge-based techniques for handling environmental problems are also investigated. Finally, the last main part of the book describes optimal approaches to reservoir operation and control that take into account appropriate multiple objectives. Volume 4 is of direct interest to researchers, teachers, students and practitioners concerned with the latest developments in environmental management and sustainable development.

Statistical Methods for Dynamic Treatment Regimes shares state of the art of statistical methods developed to address questions of estimation and inference for dynamic treatment regimes, a branch of personalized medicine. This volume demonstrates these methods with their conceptual underpinnings and illustration through analysis of real and simulated data. These methods are immediately applicable to the practice of personalized medicine, which is a medical paradigm that emphasizes the systematic use of individual patient information to optimize patient health care. This is the first single source to provide an overview of methodology and results gathered from journals, proceedings, and technical reports with the goal of orienting researchers to the field. The first chapter establishes context for the statistical reader in the landscape of personalized medicine. Readers need only have familiarity with elementary calculus, linear algebra, and basic large-sample theory to use this text. Throughout the text, authors direct readers to available code or packages in different statistical languages to facilitate implementation. In cases where code does not already exist, the authors provide analytic approaches in sufficient detail that any researcher with knowledge of statistical programming could implement the methods from scratch. This will be an important volume for a wide range of researchers, including statisticians, epidemiologists, medical researchers, and machine learning researchers interested in medical applications. Advanced graduate students in statistics and biostatistics will also find material in Statistical Methods for Dynamic Treatment Regimes to be a critical part of their studies.

The process of developing predictive models includes many stages. Most resources focus on the modeling algorithms but neglect other critical aspects of the modeling process. This book describes techniques for finding the best representations of predictors for modeling and for nding the best subset of predictors for improving model performance. A variety of example data sets are used to illustrate the techniques along with R programs for reproducing the results.

This volume contains a unique collection of mathematical essays that resent a battery of techniques and approaches for the statistical analysis of heavy tailed distributions and processes. The articles cover a number of applications of heavy tailed modeling, running the gamut from insurance and finance, to telecommunications and the World Wide Web, and classical signal/noise detection problems.

The book concerns the notion of association in probability and statistics. Association and some other positive dependence notions were introduced in 1966 and 1967 but received little attention from the probabilistic and statistics community. The interest in these dependence notions increased in the last 15 to 20 years, and many asymptotic results were proved and improved. Despite this increased interest, characterizations and results remained essentially scattered in the literature published in different journals. The goal of this book is to bring together the bulk of these results, presenting the theory in a unified way, explaining relations and implications of the results. It will present basic definitions and characterizations, followed by a collection of relevant inequalities. These are then applied to characterize almost sure and weak convergence of sequences of associated variables. It will also cover applications of positive dependence to the characterization of asymptotic results in nonparametric statistics. The book is directed towards researchers in probability and statistics, with particular emphasis on people interested in nonparametric methods. It will also be of interest to graduate students in those areas. The book could also be used as a reference on association in a course covering dependent variables and their asymptotics.
As prerequisite, readers should have knowledge of basic probability on the reals and on metric spaces. Some acquaintance with the asymptotics of random functions, such us empirical processes and partial sums processes, is useful but not essential.

The first comprehensive account of the theory of mass transportation problems and its applications. In Volume I, the authors systematically develop the theory with emphasis on the Monge-Kantorovich mass transportation and the Kantorovich-Rubinstein mass transshipment problems. They then discuss a variety of different approaches towards solving these problems and exploit the rich interrelations to several mathematical sciences - from functional analysis to probability theory and mathematical economics. The second volume is devoted to applications of the above problems to topics in applied probability, theory of moments and distributions with given marginals, queuing theory, risk theory of probability metrics and its applications to various fields, among them general limit theorems for Gaussian and non-Gaussian limiting laws, stochastic differential equations and algorithms, and rounding problems. Useful to graduates and researchers in theoretical and applied probability, operations research, computer science, and mathematical economics, the prerequisites for this book are graduate level probability theory and real and functional analysis.

The scope of this book is limited to heuristics, metaheuristics, and approximate methods and algorithms as applied to planning and scheduling problems. While it is not possible to give a comprehensive treatment of this topic in one book, the aim of this work is to provide the reader with a diverse set of planning and scheduling problems and different heuristic approaches to solve them. The problems range from traditional single stage and parallel machine problems to more modern settings such as robotic cells and flexible job shop networks. Furthermore, some chapters deal with deterministic problems while some others treat stochastic versions of the problems. Unlike most of the literature that deals with planning and scheduling problems in the manufacturing and production environments, in this book the environments were extended to nontraditional applications such as spatial scheduling (optimizing space over time), runway scheduling, and surgical scheduling. The solution methods used in the different chapters of the book also spread from well-established heuristics and metaheuristics such as Genetic Algorithms and Ant Colony Optimization to more recent ones such as Meta-RaPS.

As climate change continues to dominate the international environmental agenda, phenology - the study of the timing of recurring biological events - has received increasing research attention, leading to an emerging consensus that phenology can be viewed as an early warning system' for climate change impact. A multidisciplinary science involving many branches of ecology, geography and remote sensing, phenology to date has lacked a coherent methodological text. This new synthesis, including contributions from many of the world's leading phenologists, therefore fills a critical gap in the current biological literature. Providing critiques of current methods, as well as detailing novel and emerging methodologies, the book, with its extensive suite of references, provides readers with an understanding of both the theoretical basis and the potential applications required to adopt and adapt new analytical and design methods. An invaluable source book for researchers and students in ecology and climate change science, the book also provides a useful reference for practitioners in a range of sectors, including human health, fisheries, forestry, agriculture and natural resource management.