As climate change continues to dominate the international environmental agenda, phenology - the study of the timing of recurring biological events - has received increasing research attention, leading to an emerging consensus that phenology can be viewed as an early warning system' for climate change impact. A multidisciplinary science involving many branches of ecology, geography and remote sensing, phenology to date has lacked a coherent methodological text. This new synthesis, including contributions from many of the world's leading phenologists, therefore fills a critical gap in the current biological literature. Providing critiques of current methods, as well as detailing novel and emerging methodologies, the book, with its extensive suite of references, provides readers with an understanding of both the theoretical basis and the potential applications required to adopt and adapt new analytical and design methods. An invaluable source book for researchers and students in ecology and climate change science, the book also provides a useful reference for practitioners in a range of sectors, including human health, fisheries, forestry, agriculture and natural resource management.

Most probability problems involve random variables indexed by space and/or time. These problems almost always have  a version in which space and/or time are taken to be discrete. This volume deals with areas in which the discrete version is more natural than the continuous one, perhaps even the only one than can be formulated without complicated constructions and machinery. The 5 papers of this volume discuss problems in which there has been significant progress in the last few years; they are motivated by, or have been developed in parallel with, statistical physics. They include questions about asymptotic shape for stochastic growth models and for random clusters; existence, location and properties of phase transitions; speed of convergence to equilibrium in Markov chains, and in particular for Markov chains based on models with a phase transition; cut-off phenomena for random walks. The articles can be read independently of each other. Their unifying theme is that of models built on discrete spaces or graphs. Such models are often easy to formulate. Correspondingly, the book requires comparatively little previous knowledge of the machinery of probability.

This new edition includes the latest advances and developments in computational probability involving A Probability Programming Language (APPL). The book examines and presents, in a systematic manner, computational probability methods that encompass data structures and algorithms. The developed techniques address problems that require exact probability calculations, many of which have been considered intractable in the past. The book addresses the plight of the probabilist by providing algorithms to perform calculations associated with random variables. Computational Probability: Algorithms and Applications in the Mathematical Sciences, 2nd Edition begins with an introductory chapter that contains short examples involving the elementary use of APPL. Chapter 2 reviews the Maple data structures and functions necessary to implement APPL. This is followed by a discussion of the development of the data structures and algorithms (Chapters 3-6 for continuous random variables and Chapters 7-9 for discrete random variables) used in APPL. The book concludes with Chapters 10-15 introducing a sampling of various applications in the mathematical sciences. This book should appeal to researchers in the mathematical sciences with an interest in applied probability and instructors using the book for a special topics course in computational probability taught in a mathematics, statistics, operations research, management science, or industrial engineering department.

This book is concerned with a class of discrete-time stochastic control processes known as controlled Markov processes (CMP's), also known as Markov decision processes or Markov dynamic programs. Starting in the mid-1950swith Richard Bellman, many contributions to CMP's have been made, and applications to engineering, statistics and operations research, among other areas, have also been developed. The purpose of this book is to present some recent developments on the theory of adaptive CMP's, i. e., CMP's that depend on unknown parameters. Thus at each decision time, the controller or decision-maker must estimate the true parameter values, and then adapt the control actions to the estimated values. We do not intend to describe all aspects of stochastic adaptive control; rather, the selection of material reflects our own research interests. The prerequisite for this book is a knowledgeof real analysis and prob ability theory at the level of, say, Ash (1972) or Royden (1968), but no previous knowledge of control or decision processes is required. The pre sentation, on the other hand, is meant to beself-contained, in the sensethat whenever a result from analysisor probability is used, it is usually stated in full and references are supplied for further discussion, if necessary. Several appendices are provided for this purpose. The material is divided into six chapters. Chapter 1 contains the basic definitions about the stochastic control problems we are interested in; a brief description of some applications is also provided."

This volume covers recent developments in the design, operation, and management of mobile telecommunication and computer systems.

Uncertainty regarding loading and system parameters leads to challenging optimization and robustness issues. Stochastic modeling combined with optimization theory ensures the optimum end-to-end performance of telecommunication or computer network systems. In view of the diverse design options possible, supporting models have many adjustable parameters and choosing the best set for a particular performance objective is delicate and time-consuming. An optimization based approach determines the optimal possible allocation for these parameters.

Researchers and graduate students working at the interface of telecommunications and operations research will benefit from this book. Due to the practical approach, this book will also serve as a reference tool for scientists and engineers in telecommunication and computer networks who depend upon optimization.

Graduate students and postgraduates in Mathematics, Engineering and the Natural Sciences want to understand Applied Mathematics for the solution of everyday problems. Scholars of Roland Bulirsch working at universities, at research institutions and in industry combine research and review papers in this anthology. Their work is summed up under the title "From Nano to Space Applied Mathematics Inspired by Roland Bulirsch." More than 20 contributions are divided into scales: nano, micro, macro, space and real life. The contributions survey current research and present case studies very interesting and informative for both graduate students and postgraduates. The contributions show how modern Applied Mathematics influences our everyday lives. Several contributions include complex graphics and illustrations, many of them in color."

This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.

The current financial crisis has revealed serious flaws in models, measures and, potentially, theories, that failed to provide forward-looking expectations for upcoming losses originated from market risks. The Proceedings of the Perm Winter School 2011 propose insights on many key issues and advances in financial markets modeling and risk measurement aiming to bridge the gap. The key addressed topics include: hierarchical and ultrametric models of financial crashes, dynamic hedging, arbitrage free modeling the term structure of interest rates, agent based modeling of order flow, asset pricing in a fractional market, hedge funds performance and many more.

Statistical Methods for Dynamic Treatment Regimes shares state of the art of statistical methods developed to address questions of estimation and inference for dynamic treatment regimes, a branch of personalized medicine. This volume demonstrates these methods with their conceptual underpinnings and illustration through analysis of real and simulated data. These methods are immediately applicable to the practice of personalized medicine, which is a medical paradigm that emphasizes the systematic use of individual patient information to optimize patient health care. This is the first single source to provide an overview of methodology and results gathered from journals, proceedings, and technical reports with the goal of orienting researchers to the field. The first chapter establishes context for the statistical reader in the landscape of personalized medicine. Readers need only have familiarity with elementary calculus, linear algebra, and basic large-sample theory to use this text. Throughout the text, authors direct readers to available code or packages in different statistical languages to facilitate implementation. In cases where code does not already exist, the authors provide analytic approaches in sufficient detail that any researcher with knowledge of statistical programming could implement the methods from scratch. This will be an important volume for a wide range of researchers, including statisticians, epidemiologists, medical researchers, and machine learning researchers interested in medical applications. Advanced graduate students in statistics and biostatistics will also find material in Statistical Methods for Dynamic Treatment Regimes to be a critical part of their studies.

Detailed lecture notes on six topics at the forefront of current research in numerical analysis and applied mathematics, with each set of notes presenting a self-contained guide to a current research area and supplemented by an extensive bibliography. In addition, most of the notes contain detailed proofs of the key results. They start from a level suitable for first year graduates in applied mathematics, mathematical analysis or numerical analysis, and proceed to current research topics. Readers will thus quickly gain an insight into the important results and techniques in each area without recourse to the large research literature. Current (unsolved) problems are also described, and directions for future research given.

About 60 scientists and students attended the 96' International Conference on Nonlinear Programming, which was held September 2-5 at Institute of Compu tational Mathematics and Scientific/Engineering Computing (ICMSEC), Chi nese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. 25 participants were from outside China and 35 from China. The conference was to celebrate the 60's birthday of Professor M.J.D. Powell (Fellow of Royal Society, University of Cambridge) for his many contributions to nonlinear optimization. On behalf of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, vice president Professor Zhi hong Xu attended the opening ceremony of the conference to express his warm welcome to all the participants. After the opening ceremony, Professor M.J.D. Powell gave the keynote lecture "The use of band matrices for second derivative approximations in trust region methods." 13 other invited lectures on recent advances of nonlinear programming were given during the four day meeting: "Primal-dual methods for nonconvex optimization" by M. H. Wright (SIAM President, Bell Labs), "Interior point trajectories in semidefinite programming" by D. Goldfarb (Columbia University, Editor-in-Chief for Series A of Mathe matical Programming), "An approach to derivative free optimization" by A."

This volume contains a unique collection of mathematical essays that resent a battery of techniques and approaches for the statistical analysis of heavy tailed distributions and processes. The articles cover a number of applications of heavy tailed modeling, running the gamut from insurance and finance, to telecommunications and the World Wide Web, and classical signal/noise detection problems.

The book will serve primarily as a user's manual or desk reference for the expert witness-lawyer team and secondarily as a textbook or supplemental textbook for upper level undergraduate statistics students. It starts with two articles by masters of the trade, Paul Meier and Franklin Fisher. It then explains the distinction between the Frye and Daughbert standards for expert testimony, and how these standards play out in court. The bulk of the book is concerned with individual cases ranging over a wide variety of topics, such as electronic draw poker (does it require skill to play), employment discrimination (how to tell whether an employer discriminated against older workers in deciding whom to fire), driving while black (did the New Jersey State Police disproportionately stop blacks), jury representativeness (is a jury a representative cross section of the community), juries hearing death penalty cases (are such juries biased toward a guilty verdict, and does the Supreme Court care), the civil incarceration of violent sexual offenders after having served their jail sentences (can future dangerousness be predicted), do data from multiple choice examinations support an allegation of copying, whether rental agents in an apartment complex steered African-American prospects to one part of the complex, how much tax is owed after an audit that used a random sample, whether an inventor falsified his notebook in an effort to fool the Patent Office, and whether ballots had been tampered with in an election. The book concludes with two recent English cases, one in which a woman was accused of murdering her infant sons because both died of "cot death" or "sudden death syndrome", (she was convicted, but later exonerated), and how Bayesian analyses can (or more precisely), cannot be presented in UK courts. In each study, the statistical analysis is shaped to address the relevant legal questions, and draws on whatever methods in statistics might shed light on those questions.

TThis book illustrates recent advances in applications of partial order theory and Hasse diagram techniques to data analysis, mainly in the socio-economic and environmental sciences. For years, partial order theory has been considered a fundamental branch of mathematics of only theoretical interest. In recent years, its effectiveness as a tool for data analysis is increasingly being realized and many applications of partially ordered sets to real problems in statistics and applied sciences have appeared. Main examples pertain to the analysis of complex and multidimensional systems of ordinal data and to problems of multi-criteria decision making, so relevant in social and environmental sciences. Partial Order Concepts in Applied Sciences presents new theoretical and methodological developments in partial order for data analysis, together with a wide range of applications to different topics: multidimensional poverty, economic development, inequality measurement, ecology and pollution, and biology, to mention a few. The book is of interest for applied mathematicians, statisticians, social scientists, environmental scientists and all those aiming at keeping pace with innovation in this interesting, growing and promising research field.

This monograph is a slightly revised version of my PhD thesis [86], com pleted in the Department of Computer Science at the University of Edin burgh in June 1988, with an additional chapter summarising more recent developments. Some of the material has appeared in the form of papers [50,88]. The underlying theme of the monograph is the study of two classical problems: counting the elements of a finite set of combinatorial structures, and generating them uniformly at random. In their exact form, these prob lems appear to be intractable for many important structures, so interest has focused on finding efficient randomised algorithms that solve them ap proxim~ly, with a small probability of error. For most natural structures the two problems are intimately connected at this level of approximation, so it is natural to study them together. At the heart of the monograph is a single algorithmic paradigm: sim ulate a Markov chain whose states are combinatorial structures and which converges to a known probability distribution over them. This technique has applications not only in combinatorial counting and generation, but also in several other areas such as statistical physics and combinatorial optimi sation. The efficiency of the technique in any application depends crucially on the rate of convergence of the Markov chain.

The first comprehensive account of the theory of mass transportation problems and its applications. In Volume I, the authors systematically develop the theory with emphasis on the Monge-Kantorovich mass transportation and the Kantorovich-Rubinstein mass transshipment problems. They then discuss a variety of different approaches towards solving these problems and exploit the rich interrelations to several mathematical sciences - from functional analysis to probability theory and mathematical economics. The second volume is devoted to applications of the above problems to topics in applied probability, theory of moments and distributions with given marginals, queuing theory, risk theory of probability metrics and its applications to various fields, among them general limit theorems for Gaussian and non-Gaussian limiting laws, stochastic differential equations and algorithms, and rounding problems. Useful to graduates and researchers in theoretical and applied probability, operations research, computer science, and mathematical economics, the prerequisites for this book are graduate level probability theory and real and functional analysis.

The present volume contains the transactions of the lOth Oberwolfach Conference on "Probability Measures on Groups." The series of these meetings inaugurated in 1970 by L. Schmetterer and the editor is devoted to an intensive exchange of ideas on a subject which developed from the relations between various topics of mathematics: measure theory, probability theory, group theory, harmonic analysis, special functions, partial differential operators, quantum stochastics, just to name the most significant ones. Over the years the fruitful interplay broadened in various directions: new group-related structures such as convolution algebras, generalized translation spaces, hypercomplex systems, and hypergroups arose from generalizations as well as from applications, and a gradual refinement of the combinatorial, Banach-algebraic and Fourier analytic methods led to more precise insights into the theory. In a period of highest specialization in scientific thought the separated minds should be reunited by actively emphasizing similarities, analogies and coincidences between ideas in their fields of research. Although there is no real separation between one field and another - David Hilbert denied even the existence of any difference between pure and applied mathematics - bridges between probability theory on one side and algebra, topology and geometry on the other side remain absolutely necessary. They provide a favorable ground for the communication between apparently disjoint research groups and motivate the framework of what is nowadays called "Structural probability theory."

This book discusses the need to carefully and prudently apply various regression techniques in order to obtain the full benefits. It also describes some of the techniques developed and used by the authors, presenting their innovative ideas regarding the formulation and estimation of regression decomposition models, hidden Markov chain, and the contribution of regressors in the set-theoretic approach, calorie poverty rate, and aggregate growth rate. Each of these techniques has applications that address a number of unanswered questions; for example, regression decomposition techniques reveal intra-household gender inequalities of consumption, intra-household allocation of resources and adult equivalent scales, while Hidden Markov chain models can forecast the results of future elections. Most of these procedures are presented using real-world data, and the techniques can be applied in other similar situations. Showing how difficult questions can be answered by developing simple models with simple interpretation of parameters, the book is a valuable resource for students and researchers in the field of model building.

With the first edition out of print, we decided to arrange for republi cation of Denumerrible Markov Ohains with additional bibliographic material. The new edition contains a section Additional Notes that indicates some of the developments in Markov chain theory over the last ten years. As in the first edition and for the same reasons, we have resisted the temptation to follow the theory in directions that deal with uncountable state spaces or continuous time. A section entitled Additional References complements the Additional Notes. J. W. Pitman pointed out an error in Theorem 9-53 of the first edition, which we have corrected. More detail about the correction appears in the Additional Notes. Aside from this change, we have left intact the text of the first eleven chapters. The second edition contains a twelfth chapter, written by David Griffeath, on Markov random fields. We are grateful to Ted Cox for his help in preparing this material. Notes for the chapter appear in the section Additional Notes. J.G.K., J.L.S., A.W.K."

Nine survey articles in this volume extend concepts from classical probability and stochastic processes to a number of areas of mathematical physics. Key topics covered: nonlinear stochastic wave equations, completely positive maps, Mehler-type semigroups on Hilbert spaces, entropic projections, martingale problem and Markov uniqueness of infinite- dimensional Nelson diffusions, analysis in geometric probability theory, measure-preserving shifts on the Wiener space, cohomology on loop spaces, and stochastic Volterra equations Contributors: H. Airault * L. Coutin * L. Decreusefond * C. Leonard * R. Leandre * P. Lescot * P. Malliavin * M. Oberguggenberger * R. Rebolledo * F. Russo * A.S. Ustunel * L. Wu The work, an outgrowth of a workshop on stochastic analysis held in Lisbon, serves as a good reference text for researchers and advanced students in the fields of probability, stochastic processes, analysis, geometry, math physics, and physics.

Contributed in honour of Lucien Le Cam on the occasion of his 70th birthday, the papers reflect the immense influence that his work has had on modern statistics. They include discussions of his seminal ideas, historical perspectives, and contributions to current research - spanning two centuries with a new translation of a paper of Daniel Bernoulli. The volume begins with a paper by Aalen, which describes Le Cams role in the founding of the martingale analysis of point processes, and ends with one by Yu, exploring the position of just one of Le Cams ideas in modern semiparametric theory. The other 27 papers touch on areas such as local asymptotic normality, contiguity, efficiency, admissibility, minimaxity, empirical process theory, and biological medical, and meteorological applications - where Le Cams insights have laid the foundations for new theories.

Over the last fifty years advanced mathematical tools have become an integral part in the development of modern economic theory. Economists continue to invoke sophisticated mathematical techniques and ideas in order to understand complex economic and social problems. In the last ten years the theory of Riesz spaces (vector lattices) has been successfully applied to economic theory. By now it is understood relatively well that the lattice structure of Riesz spaces can be employed to capture and interpret several economic notions. On April 16-20, 1990, a small conference on Riesz Spaces, Positive Opera tors, and their Applications to Economics took place at the California Institute of Technology. The purpose of the conference was to bring mathematicians special ized in Riesz Spaces and economists specialized in General Equilibrium together to exchange ideas and advance the interdisciplinary cooperation between math ematicians and economists. This volume is a collection of papers that represent the talks and discussions of the participants at the week-long conference. We take this opportunity to thank all the participants of the conference, especially those whose articles are contained in this volume. We also greatly ap preciate the financial support provided by the California Institute of Technology. In particular, we express our sincerest thanks to David Grether, John Ledyard, and David Wales for their support. Finally, we would like to thank Susan Davis, Victoria Mason, and Marge D'Elia who handled the delicate logistics for the smooth running of the confer ence."

Develops insights into solving complex problems in engineering, biomedical sciences, social science and economics based on artificial intelligence. Some of the problems studied are in interstate conflict, credit scoring, breast cancer diagnosis, condition monitoring, wine testing, image processing and optical character recognition. The author discusses and applies the concept of flexibly-bounded rationality which prescribes that the bounds in Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon's bounded rationality theory are flexible due to advanced signal processing techniques, Moore's Law and artificial intelligence. Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making examines and defines the concepts of causal and correlation machines and applies the transmission theory of causality as a defining factor that distinguishes causality from correlation. It develops the theory of rational counterfactuals which are defined as counterfactuals that are intended to maximize the attainment of a particular goal within the context of a bounded rational decision making process. Furthermore, it studies four methods for dealing with irrelevant information in decision making: Theory of the marginalization of irrelevant information Principal component analysis Independent component analysis Automatic relevance determination method In addition it studies the concept of group decision making and various ways of effecting group decision making within the context of artificial intelligence. Rich in methods of artificial intelligence including rough sets, neural networks, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, incremental learning and fuzzy networks, this book will be welcomed by researchers and students working in these areas.

The first comprehensive account of the theory of mass transportation problems and its applications. In Volume I, the authors systematically develop the theory with emphasis on the Monge-Kantorovich mass transportation and the Kantorovich-Rubinstein mass transshipment problems. They then discuss a variety of different approaches towards solving these problems and exploit the rich interrelations to several mathematical sciences - from functional analysis to probability theory and mathematical economics. The second volume is devoted to applications of the above problems to topics in applied probability, theory of moments and distributions with given marginals, queuing theory, risk theory of probability metrics and its applications to various fields, among them general limit theorems for Gaussian and non-Gaussian limiting laws, stochastic differential equations and algorithms, and rounding problems. Useful to graduates and researchers in theoretical and applied probability, operations research, computer science, and mathematical economics, the prerequisites for this book are graduate level probability theory and real and functional analysis.

This book offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schro- ] dinger, and in quantum mechanics and in modern physics as a whole. It also considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory itself for our understanding of the nature of human thinking and knowledge in general, or the ''epistemological lesson of quantum mechanics, '' as Bohr liked 1 to say. These implications are radical and controversial. While they have been seen as scientifically productive and intellectually liberating to some, Bohr and Heisenberg among them, they have been troublesome to many others, such as Schro] dinger and, most prominently, Albert Einstein. Einstein famously refused to believe that God would resort to playing dice or rather to playing with nature in the way quantum mechanics appeared to suggest, which is indeed quite different from playing dice. According to his later (sometime around 1953) remark, a lesser known or commented upon but arguably more important one: ''That the Lord should play dice], all right; but that He should gamble according to definite rules i. e., according to the rules of quantum mechanics, rather than 2 by merely throwing dice], that is beyond me. '' Although Einstein's invocation of God is taken literally sometimes, he was not talking about God but about the way nature works. Bohr's reply on an earlier occasion to Einstein's question 1 Cf."