This is a practical guide to solutions for forecasting demand for services and products in international markets - and much more than just a listing of dry theoretical methods. Leading experts present studies on improving methods for forecasting numbers of incoming patent filings at the European Patent Office. These are reviewed by practitioners of the existing methods, revealing that it may not always be wise to trust established regression approaches.

The development of Operations Research (OR) requires constant improvements, such as the integration of research results with business applications and innovative educational practice. The full deployment and commercial exploitation of goods and services generally need the construction of strong synergies between educational institutions and businesses. The IO2015 -XVII Congress of APDIO aims at strengthening the knowledge triangle in education, research and innovation, in order to maximize the contribution of OR for sustainable growth, the promoting of a knowledge-based economy, and the smart use of finite resources. The IO2015-XVII Congress of APDIO is a privileged meeting point for the promotion and dissemination of OR and related disciplines, through the exchange of ideas among teachers, researchers, students , and professionals with different background, but all sharing a common desire that is the development of OR.

Essential Statistical Methods for Medical Statistics presents only key contributions which have been selected from the volume in the Handbook of Statistics: Medical Statistics, Volume 27 (2009).

While the use of statistics in these fields has a long and rich history, the explosive growth of science in general, and of clinical and epidemiological sciences in particular, has led to the development of new methods and innovative adaptations of standard methods. This volume is appropriately focused for individuals working in these fields. Contributors are internationally renowned experts in their respective areas.

. Contributors are internationally renowned experts in their respective areas . Addresses emerging statistical challenges in epidemiological, biomedical, and pharmaceutical research . Methods for assessing Biomarkers, analysis of competing risks . Clinical trials including sequential and group sequential, crossover designs, cluster randomized, and adaptive designs . Structural equations modelling and longitudinal data analysis"

This volume originates from the INDAM Symposium on Trends on Applications of Mathematics to Mechanics (STAMM), which was held at the INDAM headquarters in Rome on 5-9 September 2016. It brings together original contributions at the interface of Mathematics and Mechanics. The focus is on mathematical models of phenomena issued from various applications. These include thermomechanics of solids and gases, nematic shells, thin films, dry friction, delamination, damage, and phase-field dynamics. The papers in the volume present novel results and identify possible future developments. The book is addressed to researchers involved in Mathematics and its applications to Mechanics.

The series is designed to bring together those mathematicians who are seriously interested in getting new challenging stimuli from economic theories with those economists who are seeking effective mathematical tools for their research. A lot of economic problems can be formulated as constrained optimizations and equilibration of their solutions. Various mathematical theories have been supplying economists with indispensable machineries for these problems arising in economic theory. Conversely, mathematicians have been stimulated by various mathematical difficulties raised by economic theories.

The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multi fold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

A Problem Solving Approach Now available with Macmillan's Achieve, Introductory Statistics helps students develop the fundamental lifelong skill of solving problems and interpreting solutions in real-world terms. One of our goals was to make this problem-solving approach accessible and easy to apply in many situations. We certainly want students to appreciate the beauty of statistics and connections to so many other disciplines. However, it is even more important for students to be able to apply problem-solving skills to a wide range of academic and career pursuits, including business, science and technology, and education. Achieve for Introductory Statistics connects the problem-solving approach and real-world examples in the book to rich digital resources that foster further understanding and application of statistics. Assets in Achieve support learning before, during, and after class for students, while providing instructors with class performance analytics in an easy-to-use interface.

In various scientific and industrial fields, stochastic simulations are taking on a new importance. This is due to the increasing power of computers and practitioners aim to simulate more and more complex systems, and thus use random parameters as well as random noises to model the parametric uncertainties and the lack of knowledge on the physics of these systems. The error analysis of these computations is a highly complex mathematical undertaking. Approaching these issues, the authors present stochastic numerical methods and prove accurate convergence rate estimates in terms of their numerical parameters (number of simulations, time discretization steps). As a result, the book is a self-contained and rigorous study of the numerical methods within a theoretical framework. After briefly reviewing the basics, the authors first introduce fundamental notions in stochastic calculus and continuous-time martingale theory, then develop the analysis of pure-jump Markov processes, Poisson processes, and stochastic differential equations. In particular, they review the essential properties of Ito integrals and prove fundamental results on the probabilistic analysis of parabolic partial differential equations. These results in turn provide the basis for developing stochastic numerical methods, both from an algorithmic and theoretical point of view.
The book combines advanced mathematical tools, theoretical analysis of stochastic numerical methods, and practical issues at a high level, so as to provide optimal results on the accuracy of Monte Carlo simulations of stochastic processes. It is intended for master and Ph.D. students in the field of stochastic processes and their numerical applications, as well as for physicists, biologists, economists and other professionals working with stochastic simulations, who will benefit from the ability to reliably estimate and control the accuracy of their simulations."

This book provides an up-to-date introduction to information theory. In addition to the classical topics discussed, it provides the first comprehensive treatment of the theory of I-Measure, network coding theory, Shannon and non-Shannon type information inequalities, and a relation between entropy and group theory. ITIP, a software package for proving information inequalities, is also included. With a large number of examples, illustrations, and original problems, this book is excellent as a textbook or reference book for a senior or graduate level course on the subject, as well as a reference for researchers in related fields.

This book assesses various intelligent-city evaluation systems around the globe, and subsequently combines that assessment with local-government and enterprise practices to create an evaluation index system for quantifying the Intelligent City concept. In addition, the book provides the results of the CityIQ indicator ranking of intelligent cities in China and worldwide, a system that focuses on three of the most crucial aspects of urban development: the development environment, future trends, and construction and operation. After data sorting, calculation and dimensionless treatment, a score system ranging from 0 to 100 is created for ranking and analyzing cities. Providing unique strategies for promoting an intelligent city evaluation system, the book offers a valuable reference guide for intelligent-city decision-makers, as well as leaders in public urban economy, social welfare and environmental authorities.

The last twenty years have witnessed a significant growth of interest in optimal factorial designs, under possible model uncertainty, via the minimum aberration and related criteria. This book gives, for the first time in book form, a comprehensive and up-to-date account of this modern theory. Many major classes of designs are covered in the book. While maintaining a high level of mathematical rigor, it also provides extensive design tables for research and practical purposes. Apart from being useful to researchers and practitioners, the book can form the core of a graduate level course in experimental design.

The primary purpose of this textbook is to introduce the reader to a wide variety of elementary permutation statistical methods. Permutation methods are optimal for small data sets and non-random samples, and are free of distributional assumptions. The book follows the conventional structure of most introductory books on statistical methods, and features chapters on central tendency and variability, one-sample tests, two-sample tests, matched-pairs tests, one-way fully-randomized analysis of variance, one-way randomized-blocks analysis of variance, simple regression and correlation, and the analysis of contingency tables. In addition, it introduces and describes a comparatively new permutation-based, chance-corrected measure of effect size. Because permutation tests and measures are distribution-free, do not assume normality, and do not rely on squared deviations among sample values, they are currently being applied in a wide variety of disciplines. This book presents permutation alternatives to existing classical statistics, and is intended as a textbook for undergraduate statistics courses or graduate courses in the natural, social, and physical sciences, while assuming only an elementary grasp of statistics.

Increased attention is being paid to the need for statistically educated citizens: statistics is now included in the K-12 mathematics curriculum, increasing numbers of students are taking courses in high school, and introductory statistics courses are required in college. However, increasing the amount of instruction is not sufficient to prepare statistically literate citizens. A major change is needed in how statistics is taught. To bring about this change, three dimensions of teacher knowledge need to be addressed: their knowledge of statistical content, their pedagogical knowledge, and their statistical-pedagogical knowledge, i.e., their specific knowledge about how to teach statistics. This book is written for mathematics and statistics educators and researchers. It summarizes the research and highlights the important concepts for teachers to emphasize, and shows the interrelationships among concepts. It makes specific suggestions regarding how to build classroom activities, integrate technological tools, and assess students' learning.

This is a unique book. While providing a wealth of examples through lessons and data sets, it is also the best attempt by members of our profession to integrate suggestions from research findings with statistics concepts and pedagogy. The book's message about the importance of listening to research is loud and clear, as is its message about alternative ways of teaching statistics. This book will impact instructors, giving them pause to consider: "Is what I'm doing now really the best thing for my students? What could I do better?"

J. Michael Shaughnessy, Professor, Dept of Mathematical Sciences, Portland State University, USA

This is a much-needed text for linking research and practice in teaching statistics. The authors have provided a comprehensive overview of the current state-of-the-art in statistics education research. The insights they have gleaned from the literature should be tremendously helpful for those involved in teaching and researching introductory courses.

Randall E. Groth, Assistant Professor of Mathematics Education, Salisbury University, USA

The Minimum Message Length (MML) Principle is an information-theoretic approach to induction, hypothesis testing, model selection, and statistical inference. MML, which provides a formal specification for the implementation of Occam's Razor, asserts that the a ~besta (TM) explanation of observed data is the shortest. Further, an explanation is acceptable (i.e. the induction is justified) only if the explanation is shorter than the original data.

This book gives a sound introduction to the Minimum Message Length Principle and its applications, provides the theoretical arguments for the adoption of the principle, and shows the development of certain approximations that assist its practical application. MML appears also to provide both a normative and a descriptive basis for inductive reasoning generally, and scientific induction in particular. The book describes this basis and aims to show its relevance to the Philosophy of Science.

Statistical and Inductive Inference by Minimum Message Length will be of special interest to graduate students and researchers in Machine Learning and Data Mining, scientists and analysts in various disciplines wishing to make use of computer techniques for hypothesis discovery, statisticians and econometricians interested in the underlying theory of their discipline, and persons interested in the Philosophy of Science. The book could also be used in a graduate-level course in Machine Learning and Estimation and Model-selection, Econometrics and Data Mining.

"Any statistician interested in the foundations of the discipline, or the deeper philosophical issues of inference, will find this volume a rewarding read." Short Book Reviews of theInternational Statistical Institute, December 2005

One of the main aims of this book is to exhibit some fruitful links between renewal theory and regular variation of functions. Applications of renewal processes play a key role in actuarial and financial mathematics as well as in engineering, operations research and other fields of applied mathematics. On the other hand, regular variation of functions is a property that features prominently in many fields of mathematics. The structure of the book reflects the historical development of the authors' research work and approach - first some applications are discussed, after which a basic theory is created, and finally further applications are provided. The authors present a generalized and unified approach to the asymptotic behavior of renewal processes, involving cases of dependent inter-arrival times. This method works for other important functionals as well, such as first and last exit times or sojourn times (also under dependencies), and it can be used to solve several other problems. For example, various applications in function analysis concerning Abelian and Tauberian theorems can be studied as well as those in studies of the asymptotic behavior of solutions of stochastic differential equations. The classes of functions that are investigated and used in a probabilistic context extend the well-known Karamata theory of regularly varying functions and thus are also of interest in the theory of functions. The book provides a rigorous treatment of the subject and may serve as an introduction to the field. It is aimed at researchers and students working in probability, the theory of stochastic processes, operations research, mathematical statistics, the theory of functions, analytic number theory and complex analysis, as well as economists with a mathematical background. Readers should have completed introductory courses in analysis and probability theory.

This volume features selected contributions on a variety of topics related to linear statistical inference. The peer-reviewed papers from the International Conference on Trends and Perspectives in Linear Statistical Inference (LinStat 2016) held in Istanbul, Turkey, 22-25 August 2016, cover topics in both theoretical and applied statistics, such as linear models, high-dimensional statistics, computational statistics, the design of experiments, and multivariate analysis. The book is intended for statisticians, Ph.D. students, and professionals who are interested in statistical inference.

Advanced Statistics from an Elementary Point of View is a highly readable text that communicates the content of a course in mathematical statistics without imposing too much rigor. It clearly emphasizes the connection between statistics and probability, and helps students concentrate on statistical strategies without being overwhelmed by calculations. The book provides comprehensive coverage of descriptive statistics; detailed treatment of univariate and bivariate probability distributions; and thorough coverage of probability theory with numerous event classifications. This book is designed for statistics majors who are already familiar with introductory calculus and statistics, and can be used in either a one- or two-semester course. It can also serve as a statistics tutorial or review for working professionals. Students who use this book will be well on their way to thinking like a statistician in terms of problem solving and decision-making. Graduates who pursue careers in statistics will continue to find this book useful, due to numerous statistical test procedures (both parametric and non-parametric) and detailed examples.

My ?rst encounter with the world of crime and punishment was more than two decades ago, and it has since undergone vast changes. No one could have foreseen that crime-related problems would occupy such a prominent position in cultural awareness. Crime is on the rise, the public attention devoted to it has increased even more, and its political importance has mushroomed. The major change in the 1990s was perhaps the transformation of crime into a safety issue. Crime is no longer a matter involving offenders, victims, the police and the courts, it involves everyone and any number of agencies and institutions from security companies to the local authorities and from schools to pub and restaurant owners. Crime has become a much larger complex than the judicial system-a complex organized mentally and institutionally around this one concept of safety. In this book I make an effort to get to the bottom of this complex. It is the sequel to my dissertation Crime and Morality-The Moral Signi?cance of Criminal Justice in a Postmodern Culture (2000), where I hold that the victim became the essence of crime in Western culture, and that this in turn shaped public morality. In the second half of the twentieth century, a personal morality based on an awareness of our own and other people's vulnerability, i. e. potential victimhood, succeeded the ethics of duty.

This book was written for those who need to know how to collect, analyze and present data. It is meant to be a first course for practitioners, a book for private study or brush-up on statistics, and supplementary reading for general statistics classes. The book is untraditional, both with respect to the choice of topics and the presentation: Topics were determined by what is most useful for practical statistical work, and the presentation is as non-mathematical as possible. The book contains many examples using statistical functions in spreadsheets. In this second edition, new topics have been included e.g. within the area of statistical quality control, in order to make the book even more useful for practitioners working in industry.

The book presents advanced stochastic models and simulation methods for random flows and transport of particles by turbulent velocity fields and flows in porous media. Two main classes of models are constructed: (1) turbulent flows are modeled as synthetic random fields which have certain statistics and features mimicing those of turbulent fluid in the regime of interest, and (2) the models are constructed in the form of stochastic differential equations for stochastic Lagrangian trajectories of particles carried by turbulent flows. The book is written for mathematicians, physicists, and engineers studying processes associated with probabilistic interpretation, researchers in applied and computational mathematics, in environmental and engineering sciences dealing with turbulent transport and flows in porous media, as well as nucleation, coagulation, and chemical reaction analysis under fluctuation conditions. It can be of interest for students and post-graduates studying numerical methods for solving stochastic boundary value problems of mathematical physics and dispersion of particles by turbulent flows and flows in porous media.

This book presents a step by step Asset Health Management Optimization Approach Using Internet of Things (IoT). The authors provide a comprehensive study which includes the descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive analysis in detail. The presentation focuses on the challenges of the parameter selection, statistical data analysis, predictive algorithms, big data storage and selection, data pattern recognition, machine learning techniques, asset failure distribution estimation, reliability and availability enhancement, condition based maintenance policy, failure detection, data driven optimization algorithm, and a multi-objective optimization approach, all of which can significantly enhance the reliability and availability of the system.

Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesian methods by the scientific community. Individual papers range in focus from posterior distributions for non-dominated models, to combining optimization and randomization approaches for the design of clinical trials, and classification of archaeological fragments with Bayesian networks.

This book presents the foundations of key problems in computational molecular biology and bioinformatics. It focuses on computational and statistical principles applied to genomes, and introduces the mathematics and statistics that are crucial for understanding these applications. The book features a free download of the R software statistics package and the text provides great crossover material that is interesting and accessible to students in biology, mathematics, statistics and computer science. More than 100 illustrations and diagrams reinforce concepts and present key results from the primary literature. Exercises are given at the end of chapters.

Statistics are everywhere. Their power and their undoubted efficacy in many areas have given rise to faith in measurement and metrics. More of them will tell us all that we need to know. Their use carries with it a number of presuppositions: that reality can be satisfactorily represented and that it can be controlled or the risks managed. The papers in this book interpret the ethics and aesthetics of statistics in terms of representation, visualisation and accessibility, focus on the appeal of 'simplicity', of technical languages, numbers, diagrams and pictures, and pay attention to their connection with action plans. The book explores what has made educational researchers dependent on statistics, and deals with their use in areas such as the prevalence of maltreatment of children, European citizenship, well-being and happiness, illegal migrants, and university expansion. There is discussion of how the quest for more and better statistics finds its voice in policy initiatives that become slogans, and how public opinion polls are used to rationalise political decision-making. Can a more limited and modest use be made of statistics which does not deflect attention away from education's core business and which does not destroy the local practical knowledge that on which good education is based? 'Smeyers and Depaepe continue to bring together a significant international group of educational philosophers and historians on topics of importance to researchers. This fifth volume in their series takes up the 'gold standard' use of statistics in case studies not contributed elsewhere. I highly recommend this text to counter a current over-emphasis on technique in research methodology. Use of statistics remains but herein under new, insightful conceptualizations.' Lynda Stone, Philosophy of Education, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA 'Once again, Depaepe and Smeyers succeeded in bringing together distinguished international and cross-disciplinary scholars exploring very timely and critical issues in current educational research. This is a groundbreaking book on a theme that can't be ignored by educational researchers and those interested in a better understanding of the culture of science and science as culture. Moreover, the present book instigates to study history of educational research, a limited but developing field, and invites reflection to those who are sometimes too reliant on number crunching as a mode of interpretation and rather credulous in the acceptance of institutional records. Frank Simon, Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences, Ghent University, Belgium

Advances in Growth Curve Models: Topics from the Indian Statistical Institute is developed from the Indian Statistical Institute's A National Conference on Growth Curve Models. This conference took place between March 28-30, 2012 in Giridih, Jharkhand, India. Jharkhand is a tribal area. Advances in Growth Curve Models: Topics from the Indian Statistical Institute shares the work of researchers in growth models used in multiple fields. A growth curve is an empirical model of the evolution of a quantity over time. Case studies and theoretical findings, important applications in everything from health care to population projection, form the basis of this volume. Growth curves in longitudinal studies are widely used in many disciplines including: Biology, Population studies, Economics, Biological Sciences, SQC, Sociology, Nano-biotechnology, and Fluid mechanics. Some included reports are research topics that have just been developed, whereas others present advances in existing literature. Both included tools and techniques will assist students and researchers in their future work. Also included is a discussion of future applications of growth curve models.