Providing a practical introduction to state space methods as applied to unobserved components time series models, also known as structural time series models, this book introduces time series analysis using state space methodology to readers who are neither familiar with time series analysis, nor with state space methods. The only background required in order to understand the material presented in the book is a basic knowledge of classical linear regression models, of which brief review is provided to refresh the reader's knowledge. Also, a few sections assume familiarity with matrix algebra, however, these sections may be skipped without losing the flow of the exposition.
The book offers a step by step approach to the analysis of the salient features in time series such as the trend, seasonal, and irregular components. Practical problems such as forecasting and missing values are treated in some detail. This useful book will appeal to practitioners and researchers who use time series on a daily basis in areas such as the social sciences, quantitative history, biology and medicine. It also serves as an accompanying textbook for a basic time series course in econometrics and statistics, typically at an advanced undergraduate level or graduate level.

This book is specially designed to refresh and elevate the level of understanding of the foundational background in probability and distributional theory required to be successful in a graduate-level statistics program. Advanced undergraduate students and introductory graduate students from a variety of quantitative backgrounds will benefit from the transitional bridge that this volume offers, from a more generalized study of undergraduate mathematics and statistics to the career-focused, applied education at the graduate level. In particular, it focuses on growing fields that will be of potential interest to future M.S. and Ph.D. students, as well as advanced undergraduates heading directly into the workplace: data analytics, statistics and biostatistics, and related areas.

This book discusses various statistical models and their implications for developing landslide susceptibility and risk zonation maps. It also presents a range of statistical techniques, i.e. bivariate and multivariate statistical models and machine learning models, as well as multi-criteria evaluation, pseudo-quantitative and probabilistic approaches. As such, it provides methods and techniques for RS & GIS-based models in spatial distribution for all those engaged in the preparation and development of projects, research, training courses and postgraduate studies. Further, the book offers a valuable resource for students using RS & GIS techniques in their studies.

The book contains a detailed treatment of thermodynamic formalism on general compact metrizable spaces. Topological pressure, topological entropy, variational principle, and equilibrium states are presented in detail. Abstract ergodic theory is also given a significant attention. Ergodic theorems, ergodicity, and Kolmogorov-Sinai metric entropy are fully explored. Furthermore, the book gives the reader an opportunity to find rigorous presentation of thermodynamic formalism for distance expanding maps and, in particular, subshifts of finite type over a finite alphabet. It also provides a fairly complete treatment of subshifts of finite type over a countable alphabet. Transfer operators, Gibbs states and equilibrium states are, in this context, introduced and dealt with. Their relations are explored. All of this is applied to fractal geometry centered around various versions of Bowen's formula in the context of expanding conformal repellors, limit sets of conformal iterated function systems and conformal graph directed Markov systems. A unique introduction to iteration of rational functions is given with emphasize on various phenomena caused by rationally indifferent periodic points. Also, a fairly full account of the classicaltheory of Shub's expanding endomorphisms is given; it does not have a book presentation in English language mathematical literature.

Functional Gaussian Approximation for Dependent Structures develops and analyses mathematical models for phenomena that evolve in time and influence each another. It provides a better understanding of the structure and asymptotic behaviour of stochastic processes. Two approaches are taken. Firstly, the authors present tools for dealing with the dependent structures used to obtain normal approximations. Secondly, they apply normal approximations to various examples. The main tools consist of inequalities for dependent sequences of random variables, leading to limit theorems, including the functional central limit theorem and functional moderate deviation principle. The results point out large classes of dependent random variables which satisfy invariance principles, making possible the statistical study of data coming from stochastic processes both with short and long memory. The dependence structures considered throughout the book include the traditional mixing structures, martingale-like structures, and weakly negatively dependent structures, which link the notion of mixing to the notions of association and negative dependence. Several applications are carefully selected to exhibit the importance of the theoretical results. They include random walks in random scenery and determinantal processes. In addition, due to their importance in analysing new data in economics, linear processes with dependent innovations will also be considered and analysed.

Peirce's Scientific Metaphysics is the first book devoted to understanding Charles Sanders Peirce's (1839-1914) metaphysics from the perspective of the scientific questions that motivated his thinking. Deftly situating Peirce's often original and pathbreaking ideas within their appropriate historical and scientific contexts, Reynolds traces his reliance upon the law of large numbers, which illustrated for Peirce the emergence of a stable order and regularity from a multitude of chance events, throughout his writings on late nineteenth-century physics, chemistry, biology, psychology, and cosmology. Along the way, Peirce's vision of an indeterministic and evolutionary cosmology is contrasted with the thought of other important late nineteenth-century scientists and philosophers, such as James Clerk Maxwell, Ludwig Boltzmann, William Thomson (Lord Kelvin), Herbert Spencer, Charles Darwin, and Ernst Haeckel. While offering a detailed account of the scientific ideas and theories essential for understanding Peirce's metaphysical system (e.g., the irreversibility of time and the reversibility of physical laws, the statistical law of large numbers), this book is written in a manner accessible to the non-specialist. This will make it especially attractive to students of Peirce's philosophy who lack familiarity with the scientific and mathematical ideas that are so central to his thought. Those with an interest in the history and philosophy of science, especially concerning the application of statistical and probabilistic thinking to physics, chemistry, biology, psychology, and cosmology, will find this discussion of Peirce's philosophy invaluable.

This book focuses on the spatial distribution of landslide hazards of the Darjeeling Himalayas. Knowledge driven methods and statistical techniques such as frequency ratio model (FRM), information value model (IVM), logistic regression model (LRM), index overlay model (IOM), certainty factor model (CFM), analytical hierarchy process (AHP), artificial neural network model (ANN), and fuzzy logic have been adopted to identify landslide susceptibility. In addition, a comparison between various statistical models were made using success rate cure (SRC) and it was found that artificial neural network model (ANN), certainty factor model (CFM) and frequency ratio based fuzzy logic approach are the most reliable statistical techniques in the assessment and prediction of landslide susceptibility in the Darjeeling Himalayas. The study identified very high, high, moderate, low and very low landslide susceptibility locations to take site-specific management options as well as to ensure developmental activities in theDarjeeling Himalayas. Particular attention is given to the assessment of various geomorphic, geotectonic and geohydrologic attributes that help to understand the role of different factors and corresponding classes in landslides, to apply different models, and to monitor and predict landslides. The use of various statistical and physical models to estimate landslide susceptibility is also discussed. The causes, mechanisms and types of landslides and their destructive character are elaborated in the book. Researchers interested in applying statistical tools for hazard zonation purposes will find the book appealing.

Starting with the basic linear model where the design and covariance matrices are of full rank, this book demonstrates how the same statistical ideas can be used to explore the more general linear model with rank-deficient design and/or covariance matrices. The unified treatment presented here provides a clearer understanding of the general linear model from a statistical perspective, thus avoiding the complex matrix-algebraic arguments that are often used in the rank-deficient case. Elegant geometric arguments are used as needed.The book has a very broad coverage, from illustrative practical examples in Regression and Analysis of Variance alongside their implementation using R, to providing comprehensive theory of the general linear model with 181 worked-out examples, 227 exercises with solutions, 152 exercises without solutions (so that they may be used as assignments in a course), and 320 up-to-date references.This completely updated and new edition of Linear Models: An Integrated Approach includes the following features:

Developed for the new International A Level specification, these new resources are specifically designed for international students, with a strong focus on progression, recognition and transferable skills, allowing learning in a local context to a global standard. Recognised by universities worldwide and fully comparable to UK reformed GCE A levels. Supports a modular approach, in line with the specification. Appropriate international content puts learning in a real-world context, to a global standard, making it engaging and relevant for all learners. Reviewed by a language specialist to ensure materials are written in a clear and accessible style. The embedded transferable skills, needed for progression to higher education and employment, are signposted so students understand what skills they are developing and therefore go on to use these skills more effectively in the future. Exam practice provides opportunities to assess understanding and progress, so students can make the best progress they can.

This open access book demonstrates how data quality issues affect all surveys and proposes methods that can be utilised to deal with the observable components of survey error in a statistically sound manner. This book begins by profiling the post-Apartheid period in South Africa's history when the sampling frame and survey methodology for household surveys was undergoing periodic changes due to the changing geopolitical landscape in the country. This book profiles how different components of error had disproportionate magnitudes in different survey years, including coverage error, sampling error, nonresponse error, measurement error, processing error and adjustment error. The parameters of interest concern the earnings distribution, but despite this outcome of interest, the discussion is generalizable to any question in a random sample survey of households or firms. This book then investigates questionnaire design and item nonresponse by building a response propensity model for the employee income question in two South African labour market surveys: the October Household Survey (OHS, 1997-1999) and the Labour Force Survey (LFS, 2000-2003). This time period isolates a period of changing questionnaire design for the income question. Finally, this book is concerned with how to employee income data with a mixture of continuous data, bounded response data and nonresponse. A variable with this mixture of data types is called coarse data. Because the income question consists of two parts -- an initial, exact income question and a bounded income follow-up question -- the resulting statistical distribution of employee income is both continuous and discrete. The book shows researchers how to appropriately deal with coarse income data using multiple imputation. The take-home message from this book is that researchers have a responsibility to treat data quality concerns in a statistically sound manner, rather than making adjustments to public-use data in arbitrary ways, often underpinned by undefensible assumptions about an implicit unobservable loss function in the data. The demonstration of how this can be done provides a replicable concept map with applicable methods that can be utilised in any sample survey.

This is the second of a two-volume series on sampling theory. The mathematical foundations were laid in the first volume, and this book surveys the many applications of sampling theory both within mathematics and in other areas of science. Many of the topics covered here are not found in other books, and all are given an up to date treatment bringing the reader's knowledge up to research level. This book consists of ten chapters, written by ten different teams of authors, and the contents range over a wide variety of topics including combinatorial analysis, number theory, neural networks, derivative sampling, wavelets, stochastic signals, random fields, and abstract harmonic analysis. There is a comprehensive, up to date bibliography.

This book provides a coherent framework for understanding shrinkage estimation in statistics. The term refers to modifying a classical estimator by moving it closer to a target which could be known a priori or arise from a model. The goal is to construct estimators with improved statistical properties. The book focuses primarily on point and loss estimation of the mean vector of multivariate normal and spherically symmetric distributions. Chapter 1 reviews the statistical and decision theoretic terminology and results that will be used throughout the book. Chapter 2 is concerned with estimating the mean vector of a multivariate normal distribution under quadratic loss from a frequentist perspective. In Chapter 3 the authors take a Bayesian view of shrinkage estimation in the normal setting. Chapter 4 introduces the general classes of spherically and elliptically symmetric distributions. Point and loss estimation for these broad classes are studied in subsequent chapters. In particular, Chapter 5 extends many of the results from Chapters 2 and 3 to spherically and elliptically symmetric distributions. Chapter 6 considers the general linear model with spherically symmetric error distributions when a residual vector is available. Chapter 7 then considers the problem of estimating a location vector which is constrained to lie in a convex set. Much of the chapter is devoted to one of two types of constraint sets, balls and polyhedral cones. In Chapter 8 the authors focus on loss estimation and data-dependent evidence reports. Appendices cover a number of technical topics including weakly differentiable functions; examples where Stein's identity doesn't hold; Stein's lemma and Stokes' theorem for smooth boundaries; harmonic, superharmonic and subharmonic functions; and modified Bessel functions.

This book discusses risk management, product pricing, capital management and Return on Equity comprehensively and seamlessly. Strategic planning, including the required quantitative methods, is an essential part of bank management and control. A thorough introduction to the advanced methods of risk management for Credit Risk, Counterparty Credit Risk, Market Risk, Operational Risk and Risk Aggregation is provided. In addition, directly applicable concepts and data such as macroeconomic scenarios for strategic planning and stress testing as well as detailed scenarios for Operational Risk and advanced concepts for Credit Risk are presented in straightforward language. The book highlights the implications and chances of the Basel III and Basel IV implementations (2022 onwards), especially in terms of capital management and Return on Equity. A wealth of essential background information from practice, international observations and comparisons, along with numerous illustrative examples, make this book a useful resource for established and future professionals in bank management, risk management, capital management, controlling and accounting.

Providing a clear explanation of the fundamental theory of time series analysis and forecasting, this book couples theory with applications of two popular statistical packages--SAS and SPSS. The text examines moving average, exponential smoothing, Census X-11 deseasonalization, ARIMA, intervention, transfer function, and autoregressive error models and has brief discussions of ARCH and GARCH models. The book features treatments of forecast improvement with regression and autoregression combination models and model and forecast evaluation, along with a sample size analysis for common time series models to attain adequate statistical power. To enhance the book's value as a teaching tool, the data sets and programs used in the book are made available on the Academic Press Web site. The careful linkage of the theoretical constructs with the practical considerations involved in utilizing the statistical packages makes it easy for the user to properly apply these techniques.
Key Features
* Describes principal approaches to time series analysis and forecasting
* Presents examples from public opinion research, policy analysis, political science, economics, and sociology
* Free Web site contains the data used in most chapters, facilitating learning
* Math level pitched to general social science usage
* Glossary makes the material accessible for readers at all levels

This book is a first course in statistics for students of biology. Most of the examples have an ecological bias, but illustrate principles which have direct relevance for biologists doing laboratory work. The structured approach begins with basic concepts, and progresses towards an appreciation of the needs and use of analysis of variance and regression, and includes the use of computer statistical packages. The work is clearly explained with worked examples of real-life biological problems, and should be suitable for undergraduate students engaged in quantitative biological work. Biostatistics should give students a sound grasp of the key principles of biological statistics without overwhelming detail, and should allow students to quickly apply techniques to their own work and data.

This book contains 296 exercises and solutions covering a wide variety of topics in linear model theory, including generalized inverses, estimability, best linear unbiased estimation and prediction, ANOVA, confidence intervals, simultaneous confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, and variance component estimation. The models covered include the Gauss-Markov and Aitken models, mixed and random effects models, and the general mixed linear model. Given its content, the book will be useful for students and instructors alike. Readers can also consult the companion textbook Linear Model Theory - With Examples and Exercises by the same author for the theory behind the exercises.

This book brings together carefully selected, peer-reviewed works on mathematical biology presented at the BIOMAT International Symposium on Mathematical and Computational Biology, which was held at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, in October 2017, in Moscow. Topics covered include, but are not limited to, the evolution of spatial patterns on metapopulations, problems related to cardiovascular diseases and modeled by boundary control techniques in hemodynamics, algebraic modeling of the genetic code, and multi-step biochemical pathways. Also, new results are presented on topics like pattern recognition of probability distribution of amino acids, somitogenesis through reaction-diffusion models, mathematical modeling of infectious diseases, and many others. Experts, scientific practitioners, graduate students and professionals working in various interdisciplinary fields will find this book a rich resource for research and applications alike.

The self-avoiding walk is a classical model in statistical mechanics, probability theory and mathematical physics. It is also a simple model of polymer entropy which is useful in modelling phase behaviour in polymers. This monograph provides an authoritative examination of interacting self-avoiding walks, presenting aspects of the thermodynamic limit, phase behaviour, scaling and critical exponents for lattice polygons, lattice animals and surfaces. It also includes a comprehensive account of constructive methods in models of adsorbing, collapsing, and pulled walks, animals and networks, and for models of walks in confined geometries. Additional topics include scaling, knotting in lattice polygons, generating function methods for directed models of walks and polygons, and an introduction to the Edwards model. This essential second edition includes recent breakthroughs in the field, as well as maintaining the older but still relevant topics. New chapters include an expanded presentation of directed models, an exploration of methods and results for the hexagonal lattice, and a chapter devoted to the Monte Carlo methods.

Molecular-Genetic and Statistical Techniques for Behavioral and Neural Research presents the most exciting molecular and recombinant DNA techniques used in the analysis of brain function and behavior, a critical piece of the puzzle for clinicians, scientists, course instructors and advanced undergraduate and graduate students. Chapters examine neuroinformatics, genetic and neurobehavioral databases and data mining, also providing an analysis of natural genetic variation and principles and applications of forward (mutagenesis) and reverse genetics (gene targeting). In addition, the book discusses gene expression and its role in brain function and behavior, along with ethical issues in the use of animals in genetics testing. Written and edited by leading international experts, this book provides a clear presentation of the frontiers of basic research as well as translationally relevant techniques that are used by neurobehavioral geneticists.