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Best Fit Lines & Curves - And Some Mathe-Magical Transformations (Hardcover)
Loot Price: R2,230
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Best Fit Lines & Curves - And Some Mathe-Magical Transformations (Hardcover)
Series: Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting
Expected to ship within 12 - 17 working days
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Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations
(Volume III of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting
series) concentrates on techniques for finding the Best Fit Line or
Curve to some historical data allowing us to interpolate or
extrapolate the implied relationship that will underpin our
prediction. A range of simple 'Moving Measures' are suggested to
smooth the underlying trend and quantify the degree of noise or
scatter around that trend. The advantages and disadvantages are
discussed and a simple way to offset the latent disadvantage of
most Moving Measure Techniques is provided. Simple Linear
Regression Analysis, a more formal numerical technique that
calculates the line of best fit subject to defined 'goodness of
fit' criteria. Microsoft Excel is used to demonstrate how to decide
whether the line of best fit is a good fit, or just a solution in
search of some data. These principles are then extended to cover
multiple cost drivers, and how we can use them to quantify 3-Point
Estimates. With a deft sleight of hand, certain commonly occurring
families of non-linear relationships can be transformed
mathe-magically into linear formats, allowing us to exploit the
powers of Regression Analysis to find the Best Fit Curves. The
concludes with an exploration of the ups and downs of seasonal data
(Time Series Analysis). Supported by a wealth of figures and
tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers,
accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost
engineering.
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