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Historical Dynamics - Why States Rise and Fall (Paperback)
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Historical Dynamics - Why States Rise and Fall (Paperback)
Series: Princeton Studies in Complexity
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Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and
decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither.
Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding
dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a
synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with
statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial
dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other
times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can
advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. Peter
Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political,
economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting
collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious
conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and
sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum
of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the
models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns.
Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that
certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree
of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent
waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And
historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces
an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as
in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious
divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the
synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our
understanding of historical dynamics.
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