The book features eight studies related to governance and risk. It provides a critical evaluation of Basel II, and questions the significance of corruption in country risk analysis and investors' decision making. It offers a reliable model of early warning credit signals that helps managers to detect default risks, and provides a risk-based analysis of alternative production systems in Pakistan. It analyzes the effects of market liberalization on volatility spill-over across the globe, and examines past and future prospects for the Iraqi stock exchange. Finally, it proposes securitization as a means to finance costs of reconstruction in Iraq.

The point of departure in the present book is that the decision-makers involved in the evaluation of alternatives under conflicting criteria express their preferential judgement by estimating ratios of subjective values or differences of the corresponding logarithms, the so-called grades. Three MCDA methods are studied in detail; the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique SMART, and the Additive and the Multiplicative AHP, both pairwise-comparison methods which do not suffer from the well-known shortcomings of the original Analytic Hierarchy Process. Context-related preference modeling on the basis of psychophysical research in visual perception and motor skills is extensively discussed in the introductory chapters. Thereafter many extensions of the ideas are presented via case studies in university administration, health care, environmental assessment, budget allocation, and energy planning at the national and the European level. The issues under consideration are: group decision-making with inhomogeneous power distributions, the search for a compromise solution, resource allocation and fair distribution, scenario analysis in long-term planning, conflict analysis via the pairwise comparison of concessions and multi-objective optimization. The final chapters are devoted to the fortunes of MCDA in the hands of its designers. Audience: The book presents methods for decision support and their applications in the fields of university administration, health care, environmental assessment, budget allocation, and strategic energy planning and will be of value to practitioners, students and researchers in these and related fields.

In Decision Modelling And Information Systems: The Information Value Chain the authors explain the interrelationships between the decision support, decision modelling, and information systems. The authors borrow from Porter's value chain concept originally set out in the organizational context and apply it to a corporate IS context. Thus data, information and knowledge is seen to be the progressive value added process leading to business intelligence. The book captures key issues that are of central interest to decision support researchers, professionals, and students. The book sets out an interdisciplinary and contemporary view of Decision Support System (DSS).

The first two parts of the book focus on the interdisciplinary decision support framework, in which mathematical programming (optimization) is taken as the inference engine. The role of business analytics and its relationship with recent developments in organisational theory, decision modelling, information systems and information technology are considered in depth. Part three of the book includes a carefully chosen selection of invited contributions from internationally-known researchers. These contributions are thought-provoking and cover key decision modelling and information systems issues.

These chapters include: Arthur Geoffrion on restoring transparency to computational solutions, Bill Inmon on the concept of the corporate information factory, Louis Ma and Efraim Turban on strategic information systems, and Erik Thomsen on information impact and its relationship to the value of information technology.

The final part of the book covers contemporary developments in the related area of business intelligence considered within an organizational context. The topics cover computing delivered across the web, management decision-making, and socio-economic challenges that lie ahead. It is now well accepted that globalisation and the impact of digital economy are profound; and the role of e-business and the delivery of decision models (business analytics) across the net lead to a challenging business environment. In this dynamic setting, decision support is one of the few interdisciplinary frameworks that can be rapidly adopted and deployed to so that businesses can survive and prosper by meeting these new challenges.

Meta-Heuristics: Advances and Trends in Local Search Paradigms for Optimizations comprises a carefully refereed selection of extended versions of the best papers presented at the Second Meta-Heuristics Conference (MIC 97). The selected articles describe the most recent developments in theory and applications of meta-heuristics, heuristics for specific problems, and comparative case studies. The book is divided into six parts, grouped mainly by the techniques considered. The extensive first part with twelve papers covers tabu search and its application to a great variety of well-known combinatorial optimization problems (including the resource-constrained project scheduling problem and vehicle routing problems). In the second part we find one paper where tabu search and simulated annealing are investigated comparatively and two papers which consider hybrid methods combining tabu search with genetic algorithms. The third part has four papers on genetic and evolutionary algorithms. Part four arrives at a new paradigm within meta-heuristics. The fifth part studies the behavior of parallel local search algorithms mainly from a tabu search perspective. The final part examines a great variety of additional meta-heuristics topics, including neural networks and variable neighbourhood search as well as guided local search. Furthermore, the integration of meta-heuristics with the branch-and-bound paradigm is investigated.

Risk management is a decision-making process which considers political, social, economic and engineering factors with relevant risk assessments relating to a potential hazard in order to develop, analyse and compare options to facilitate the selection of the optimal regulatory response for safety from that hazard. Rapid technological developments, organisational changes and increased demand for efficiency have all influenced the vulnerability of our society. As a result, safety and risk management is becoming an increasingly important field.

Risk Management with Applications from the Offshore Petroleum Industry presents an in-depth discussion of some fundamental principles of risk management, related to the use of expected values, uncertainty handling and risk acceptance criteria. A decision framework for risk management is developed that provides a structure for the classification of risk decision problems and a procedure for the execution of the related decision-making processes. Several examples from the offshore petroleum industry are included to illustrate the use of the framework, but it can also be applied in other areas.

With the inclusion of a risk management framework designed to achieve better decisions and therefore more desirable outcomes, Risk Management with Applications from the Offshore Petroleum Industry is a valuable resource for practitioners in the industry, engineering managers and regulatory authorities. Graduate students and researchers in risk management will find this book a comprehensive reference.

This book is about the interplay of theory and experimentation on group decision making in economics. The theories that the book subjects to experimental testing mostly come from the theory of games. The decisions investigated in the book mostly concern economic interaction like strict competition. two-person bargaining. and coalition formation. The underlying philosophy of the articles collected in this book is consistent with the opinion of a growing number of economists and psychologists that economic issues cannot be understood fully just by thinking about them. Rather. the interplay between theory and experimentation is critical for the development of economics as an observational science (Smith. 1989). Reports of laboratory experiments in decision making and economics date back more than thirty years (e.g . Allais. 1953; Davidson. Suppes. and Siegel. 1957; Flood. 1958; Friedman. 1%3; Kalisch. Milnor. Nash. and Nering. 1954; Lieberman. 1%0; Mosteller and Nogee. 1951; Rapoport. Chammah. Dwyer. and Gyr. I %2; Siegel and Fouraker. I %0; Stone. 1958). However. only in the last ten or fifteen years has laboratory experimentation in economics started its steady transformation from an occasional curiosity into a regular means for investigating various economic phenomena and examining the role of economic institutions. Groups of researchers in the USA and abroad have used experimental methods with increasing sophistication to attack economic problems that arise in individual decision making under risk. two-person bargaining."

Decision making is certainly a very crucial component of many human activities. It is, therefore, not surprising that models of decisions play a very important role not only in decision theory but also in areas such as operations Research, Management science, social Psychology etc . . The basic model of a decision in classical normative decision theory has very little in common with real decision making: It portrays a decision as a clear-cut act of choice, performed by one individual decision maker and in which states of nature, possible actions, results and preferences are well and crisply defined. The only compo nent in which uncertainty is permitted is the occurence of the different states of nature, for which probabilistic descriptions are allowed. These probabilities are generally assumed to be known numerically, i. e. as single probabili ties or as probability distribution functions. Extensions of this basic model can primarily be conceived in three directions: 1. Rather than a single decision maker there are several decision makers involved. This has lead to the areas of game theory, team theory and group decision theory. 2. The preference or utility function is not single valued but rather vector valued. This extension is considered in multiattribute utility theory and in multicritieria analysis. 3."

Statistical Models for Strategic Management offers practical guidance in the use of statistical models for empirical research in strategic management. The contributions in this edited volume come from distinguished researchers in the field of Strategic Management, and provide illustration of most statistical models that are relevant for strategy research. The book is divided into four major topical areas: Strategic Analysis and Firm Strategies; The Resource-Based View of the Firm; Transaction Costs, Agency Theory, and the Boundaries of the Firm; and Corporate Alliances, Acquisitions and Networks.

With the vision that machines can be rendered smarter, we have witnessed for more than a decade tremendous engineering efforts to implement intelligent sys tems. These attempts involve emulating human reasoning, and researchers have tried to model such reasoning from various points of view. But we know precious little about human reasoning processes, learning mechanisms and the like, and in particular about reasoning with limited, imprecise knowledge. In a sense, intelligent systems are machines which use the most general form of human knowledge together with human reasoning capability to reach decisions. Thus the general problem of reasoning with knowledge is the core of design methodology. The attempt to use human knowledge in its most natural sense, that is, through linguistic descriptions, is novel and controversial. The novelty lies in the recognition of a new type of un certainty, namely fuzziness in natural language, and the controversality lies in the mathematical modeling process. As R. Bellman [7] once said, decision making under uncertainty is one of the attributes of human intelligence. When uncertainty is understood as the impossi bility to predict occurrences of events, the context is familiar to statisticians. As such, efforts to use probability theory as an essential tool for building intelligent systems have been pursued (Pearl [203], Neapolitan [182)). The methodology seems alright if the uncertain knowledge in a given problem can be modeled as probability measures.

Today's MIS manager must understand and apply the latest thinking on the crucial management functions: planning, organizing, directing, and controlling. Moreover, not only must managers understand the research-based foundations underlying this thinking, they must also know how to leverage the new MIS technologies and incorporate them into it. Thierauf's new book guides managers through the technology/managerial function interface, explains latest research and its applications, and then provides MIS managers, their external auditors and consultants, with a unique questionnaire to help them assess the performance of their MIS groups and their own managerial effectiveness. With illustrations, checklists, guidelines, and unusual clarity of presentation, not only will Thierauf's book help MIS managers and those they report to understand better their day-to-day tasks, but it will also shed new light on the technologies themselves and their inevitable work impacts.

'A very practical, engaging guide to the essential tools which managers at all levels need to be effective themselves and to develop others. Highly recommended.' Stuart Chambers, former CEO of Pilkington plc Key Management Development Models gives you, at a glance, instant access to a full range of the best models available for developing your management skills and helping others to work and perform at their peak. For anyone seeking to develop their management skills it can be hard to know where to begin. Key Management Development Models explains the tools in detail - what they are and when and how to use them, with key practical tips. It's like having your very own management development coach on hand explaining all the tools that you will ever need to know. EXPERT GUIDANCE FOR YOUR MANAGEMENT CAREER

Problems with high stakes, involving human perceptions and judgements, and whose resolutions have long-term repercussions, call for a rational approach to their solution. Strategic Decision Making provides an effective, formal methodology that gives assistance to such strategic level decision making problems. Focusing on applying the AHP to decision-making problems in engineering, Strategic Decision Making explores the three main endeavours of human existence: business, defence and governance. Many years of successfully applying Strategic Decision Making in these domains have created extensive results covering many complex planning, resource, allocation and priority setting problems throughout industry and business. Case studies drawn from years of successful, practical application experience. Discusses applications of decision making for real life problems. Worked examples and solutions to problems throughout. The reader will gain comprehensive exposure to the extent of assistance that a formal methodology, such as AHP, can provide to the decision maker in evolving decisions in complex and varied domains. Decision makers, in business and industry around the world, will find this valuable for practical use as a working tool.

This book arose out of an invited feature article on visualization and opti mization that appeared in the ORSA Journal on Computing in 1994. That article briefly surveyed the current state of the art in visualization as it ap plied to optimization. In writing the feature article, it became clear that there was much more to say. Apparently others agreed, and thus this book was born. The book is targeted primarily towards the optimization community rather than the visualization community. Although both optimization and visualization both seek to help people understand complex problems, prac titioners in one field are generally unaware of work in the other field. Given the common goals of the respective fields, it seemed fruitful to consider how each can contribute to the other. One might argue that this book should not be focused specifically on optimization but on decision making in general. Perhaps, but it seems that there is sufficient material to create a book targeted specifically to optimization. Certainly many of the ideas presented in the book are appli cable to other areas, including computer simulation, decision theory and stochastic modeling. Another book could discuss the use of visualization in these areas."

Knowledge Management and Organizational Memories presents models, methods, and techniques for building, managing and using corporate memories. These models incorporate knowledge bases, ontologies, documents, FAQs, workflow systems, case-based reasoning systems, multi-agent systems, and CSCW. The book is divided into five parts: methods; knowledge-based approaches; ontologies and documents; case-based reasoning approaches; and distributed and collaborative approaches.

This practical book serves as a comprehensive guide to quantitative portfolio optimization, asset allocation, and risk management. Providing an accessible yet rigorous approach to investment management, it gradually introduces ever more advanced quantitative tools for these areas. Using extensive examples, this book guides the reader from basic return and risk analysis, all the way through to portfolio optimization and risk characterization, and finally on to fully fledged quantitative asset allocation and risk management. It employs such tools as enhanced modern portfolio theory using Monte Carlo simulation and advanced return distribution analysis, analysis of marginal contributions to absolute and active portfolio risk, Value-at-Risk and Extreme Value Theory.

The Cold War Era left the major participants, the United States and the former Soviet Union (FSU), with large legacies in terms of both contamination and potential accidents. Facility contamination and environmental degradation, as well as the accident vulnerable facilities and equipment, are a result of weapons development, testing, and production. Although the countries face similar issues from similar activities, important differences in waste management practices make the potential environmental and health risks of more immediate concern in the FSU and Eastern Europe. In the West, most nuclear and chemical waste is stored in known contained locations, while in the East, much of the equivalent material is unconfined, contaminating the environment. In the past decade, the U.S. started to address and remediate these Cold War legacies. Costs have been very high, and the projected cost estimates for total cleanup are still increasing. Currently in Russia, the resources for starting such major activities continue to be unavailable."

Metadecisions: Rehabilitating Epistemology constitutes an epistemological inquiry about the foundations of knowledge of a scientific discipline. This text warns contemporary scientific disciplines that neglecting epistemological issues threatens the viability of their pronouncements and designs.

It shows that the processes by which complex artefacts are created require a pluralistic approach to artefact design.

It argues that viable solutions to fundamental problems in each discipline require cooperation, creativity and respect for contributions from all walks of life, all levels of logic and all standards of rigor - be they in the natural sciences, the social sciences, engineering sciences, management, the law or political sciences.
Several true cases, obtained from different walks of life are used to illustrate logic levels in problems and how the application of the process of modeling/metamodeling helps to conceptualize problem dysfunctions and to convert decisions into metadecisions.

Ten cases spanning subjects like Doctor Assisted Suicides (DASs), Advising Women on The Risks of Mammograms, a Deregulation Crusade, The Crash of TWA Flight 800, The Control of The World Wide Web, The Creation of the US Department of Homeland Security, among others, are used to illustrate the application of the metasystem framework to increase knowledge and meaning of fundamental problems.

The design of any human activity requires the intervention of several inquiring systems where the manager, the engineer, the scientist, the lawyer, the epistemologist, the ethicist and even the artist contribute to shape how problems in the real-world are formulated, how decisions/metadecisions to solve problems are taken, and finally, how actions are implemented.

As its title implies, Advances in Multicriteria Analysis presents the most recent developments in multicriteria analysis and in some of its principal areas of application, including marketing, research and development evaluation, financial planning, and medicine. Special attention is paid to the interaction between multicriteria analysis, decision support systems and preference modeling. The five sections of the book cover: methodology; problem structuring; utility assessment; multi-objective optimisation; real world applications. Audience: Researchers and professionals who are operations researchers, management scientists, computer scientists, statisticians, decision analysts, marketing managers and financial analysts.

This book is a report to the Executive Board of the Rijnmond Public Authority. The report presents the results of a pilot study of the risks to the employees in, and the population around six industrial installations. The installations were selected to illustrate various materials and technologies present in this area e.g. toxic, flammable, cryogenic and pressure storage. The study was performed in close cooperation between authorities, industry and consultants. The report consists of 5 parts: Part I is the report of the Steering Committee, which managed the whole project. It contains the background, the aims of the study, conclusions, general comments and recommendations. Appendices I and 2 give information about the parties involved in the study and the screening process applied to the collected safety data respectively. Part 2, the main report by Cremer and Warner Ltd., presents the way the risk analysis of the six industrial installations was performed. All the steps necessary to carry out such an analysis are presented and discussed. The final results are given in tables showing the average number of fatalities per year both for employees and the population. Appendices I to VII contain the calculation models used (dischar ge rates, dispersion, combustion, etc.). Appendices VII to X give a historical review of incidents, fai lure rate data and meteorological data respectively. Appendix XII gives the final results of the consequence analyses and appendix XIII presents the fault trees and derivation of failure rates."

Radical Decision Making offers a controversial new framework to the conventional strategic change management conversation. While many approaches provide a discussion on a singular level, Dr. Hruska blends theory and research of decision making and social interaction to develop a consistent framework of strategic change.

This book brings together three great motifs of the network society: the seeking and using of information by individuals and groups; the creation and application of knowledge in organizations; and the fundamental transformation of these activities as they are enacted on the Internet and the World Wide Web. Of the three, the study of how individuals and groups seek information probably has the longest history, beginning with the early "information needs and uses" studies soon after the Second World War. The study of organizations as knowledge-based social systems is much more recent, and really gained momentum only within the last decade or so. The study of the World Wide Web as information and communication media is younger still, but has generated tremendous excitement, partly because it has the potential to reconfigure the ways in which people seek information and use knowledge, and partly because it offers new methods of analyzing and measuring how in fact such information and knowledge work gets done. As research endeavors, these streams overlap and share conceptual constructs, perspectives, and methods of analysis. Although these overlaps and shared concerns are sometimes apparent in the published research, there have been few attempts to connect these ideas explicitly and identify cross-disciplinary themes. This book is an attempt to fill this void. The three authors of this book possess contrasting backgrounds and thus adopt complementary vantage points to observe information seeking and knowledge work.