This volume constitutes the papers and discussions from a symposium on "Societal Risk Assessment: How Safe is Safe Enough?" held at the General Motors Research Laboratories on October 8-9, 1979. This symposium was the twenty-fourth in an annual series sponsored by the Research Laboratories. Initi ated in 1957, these symposia have as their objective the promotion of the interchange ofknowledge among specialists from many allied disciplines in rapidly developing or changing areas ofscience or technology. Attendees characteristically represent the academic, government, and industrial institutions that are noted for their ongoing activities in the particular area of interest. The objective of this symposium was to develop a balanced view of the current status of societal risk assessment's role in the public policy process and then to establish, if possible, future directions of research. Accordingly, the symposium was structured in two dimensions; certainty versus uncertainty and the subjective versus the objective. Furthermore, people representing extremely diverse discip lines concerned with the perception, quantification, and abatement of risks were brought together to provide an environment that stimulated the exchange of ideas and experiences. The keys to this exchange were the invited papers, arranged into four symposium sessions. These papers appear in this volume in the order of their presentation. The discussions that in turn followed from the papers are also included."

We live, unfortunately, in turbulent and difficult times plagued by various political, economic, and social problems, as well as by natural disasters worldwide. Systems become more and more complicated, and this concerns all levels, exemplified first by global political alliances, groups of countries, regions, etc., and secondly, by multinational (global) corporations and companies of all sizes. These same concerns affect all social groups. This all makes decision processes very complicated. In virtually all decision processes in these complicated systems, there are various actors (decision makers) who represent individual subjects (persons, countries, companies, etc.) and their respective interest groups. To reach a meaningful (good) decision, opinions of all such actors must be taken into account or a given decision may be rejected and not implemented. Ideally, a decision would be made after a consensus between the parties involved had been attained. So, consensus is a very desirable situation. In most real-world cases there is considerable uncertainty concerning all aspects of the decision making process. Moreover, opinions, goals, constraints, etc. are usually imprecisely known. This makes the decision making process difficult as one cannot employ conventional "hard" tools.

ARIS (Architecture of Integrated Information Systems) is a unique and internationally renowned method for optimizing business processes and implementing application systems.This book describes in detail how ARIS methods model and realize business processes by means of UML (Unified Modeling Language), leading to an information model that is the keystone for a systematic and intelligent method of developing application systems.Multiple real-world examples - including knowledge management, implementation of workflow systems and standard software solutions (SAP R/3 in particular) - address the deployment of ARIS methods.

At a practical level, mathematical programming under multiple objectives has emerged as a powerful tool to assist in the process of searching for decisions which best satisfy a multitude of conflicting objectives, and there are a number of distinct methodologies for multicriteria decision-making problems that exist. These methodologies can be categorized in a variety of ways, such as form of model (e.g. linear, non-linear, stochastic), characteristics of the decision space (e.g. finite or infinite), or solution process (e.g. prior specification of preferences or interactive). Scientists from a variety of disciplines (mathematics, economics and psychology) have contributed to the development of the field of Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) (or Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), Multiattribute Decision Making (MADM), Multiobjective Decision Making (MODM), etc.) over the past 30 years, helping to establish MCDM as an important part of management science. MCDM has become a central component of studies in management science, economics and industrial engineering in many universities worldwide. Multicriteria Decision Making: Advances in MCDM Models, Algorithms, Theory and Applications aims to bring together state-of-the-art' reviews and the most recent advances by leading experts on the fundamental theories, methodologies and applications of MCDM. This is aimed at graduate students and researchers in mathematics, economics, management and engineering, as well as at practicing management scientists who wish to better understand the principles of this new and fast developing field.

This book is an extension of the author's first book and serves as a guide and manual on how to specify and compute 2-, 3-, and 4-Event Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). It walks the learner through the steps of fitting and solving fifty BBN numerically, using mathematical proof. The author wrote this book primarily for inexperienced learners as well as professionals, while maintaining a proof-based academic rigor. The author's first book on this topic, a primer introducing learners to the basic complexities and nuances associated with learning Bayes' theorem and inverse probability for the first time, was meant for non-statisticians unfamiliar with the theorem-as is this book. This new book expands upon that approach and is meant to be a prescriptive guide for building BBN and executive decision-making for students and professionals; intended so that decision-makers can invest their time and start using this inductive reasoning principle in their decision-making processes. It highlights the utility of an algorithm that served as the basis for the first book, and includes fifty 2-, 3-, and 4-event BBN of numerous variants.

Intellectual Capital scores highly on the agenda of practicing managers and academics as they all try to disentangle such problems as how to identify and measure intellectual capital and how to value and report intangibles and invisible assets. Few people doubt the importance of measuring, managing, and reporting intangibles such as Intellectual Capital and most practitioners and scholars are in agreement that intangible assets such as knowledge, brand, relationships, organizational culture, and intellectual property are the primary drivers of competitiveness in todays global economy. Governments, research organizations, and private corporations are sponsoring projects to develop the area of intangible assets. Different tools are being developed to handle intangibles. such as strategic approaches like the business scorecard or management frameworks, or financial perspectives dealing with real options or value based approaches. A significant problem people face when they first delve into this area is that the definitions are not clear and neither are the boundaries. This is, to a large extent, due to the multidimensional nature of the topic. research. The result is little cross-fertilization of ideas and concepts. Thus, although the concept of intellectual capital is truly multidisciplinary, there is little agreement and significant confusion concerning its nature, available tools, their usage, as well as the extent to which such tools are applied in organizations. Perspectives on Intellectual Capital is aimed at addressing exactly these challenges. First, it will bridge the disciplinary gaps and facilitate knowledge transfer across disciplines. Secondly, it will provide an introduction to intangibles for those new to the field. The book offers functional perspectives and therefore a truly comprehensive understanding of what intellectual capital is, what it stands for, what is state of the art in each discipline and where it will go in the future. The book features views on intellectual capital from an accounting, strategy, marketing, human resource management, operations management, information systems, and economics position. perspectives of public policy, knowledge management and epistemology. The final part of the book will extract the key trends and try to create bridges across disciplines in order to open up trajectories for future developments, learning, and practice. The book is structured methodologically, designed to provide a holistic understanding of the field. The structure of each chapter will start with an explanation and a review of the background and development of intellectual capital in relation to the discipline being discussed. It will cover a historic review in order to explore the triggers and reasons why intangibles have become important and above all it will provide definitions and clarify the language used to describe intellectual capital. This part will address the key believes and theoretical foundations on which views on intellectual capital are based. Each chapter will then outline the evolution of theoretical concepts and will give the reader an insight into which theoretical tools and techniques have been developed to manage, measure, or report intangibles. second part is then contrasted with the extent to which these tools and techniques are used by in practice. It will include a selection of best practice examples of how real organizations apply these tools and techniques. This will uncover possible gaps between theory and practice. We expect different gaps for different disciplines, in some theory will lead practice whereas in others theory might lag practice. In this way the reader will see potential for both transfer of theoretical concepts into practice as well as for grounding practical concepts into theory. The final part of each chapter will look to the future. It will try to identify how mature the theme is in each of the disciplinary views and discuss how intellectual capital might develop. In this, the authors seek to identify the major challenges that will need to be addressed in the future and give an outline of possible barriers and enablers.

The main contents and character of the monograph did not change with respect to the first edition. However, within most chapters we incorporated quite a number of modifications which take into account the recent development of the field, the very valuable suggestions and comments that we received from numerous colleagues and students as well as our own experience while using the book. Some errors and misprints in the first edition are also corrected. Reiner Horst May 1992 Hoang Tuy PREFACE TO THE FIRST EDITION The enormous practical need for solving global optimization problems coupled with a rapidly advancing computer technology has allowed one to consider problems which a few years aga would have been considered computationally intractable. As a consequence, we are seeing the creation of a large and increasing number of diverse algorithms for solving a wide variety of multiextremal global optimization problems. The goal of this book is to systematically clarify and unify these diverse approaches in order to provide insight into the underlying concepts and their pro perties. Aside from a coherent view of the field much new material is presented."

Decision-making tools are needed to support environmental management in an increasingly global economy. Addressing threats and identifying actions to mitigate those threats necessitates an understanding of the basic risk assessment paradigm and the tools of risk analysis to assess, interpret, and communicate risks. It also requires modification of the risk paradigm itself to incorporate a complex array of quantitative and qualitative information that shapes the unique political and ecological challenges of different countries and regions around the world. This book builds a foundation to characterize and assess a broad range of human and ecological stressors, and risk management approaches to address those stressors, using chemical risk assessment methods and multi-criteria decision analysis tools. Chapters discuss the current state-of-knowledge with regard to emerging stressors and risk management, focusing on the adequacy of available systematic, quantitative tools to guide vulnerability and threat assessments, evaluate the consequences of different events and responses, and support decision-making. This book opens a dialogue on aspects of risk assessment and decision analysis that apply to real-time (immediate) and deliberative (long-term) risk management processes.

Winner of best smart thinking book 2022 (Business Book Awards) Guardian best books of 2021 'Original, thought-provoking and a joy to read' Tim Harford 'Highly recommended. It's not easy to become (more of) a scout, but it's hard not to be inspired by this book' Rutger Bregman When it comes to what we believe, humans see what they want to see. In other words, we have what Julia Galef calls a 'soldier' mindset. From tribalism and wishful thinking, to rationalising in our personal lives and everything in between, we are driven to defend the ideas we most want to believe - and shoot down those we don't. But if we want to get things right more often we should train ourselves to think more like a scout. Unlike the soldier, a scout's goal isn't to defend one side over the other. It's to go out, survey the territory, and come back with as accurate a map as possible. Regardless of what they hope to be the case, above all, the scout wants to know what's actually true. In The Scout Mindset, Galef shows that what makes scouts better at getting things right isn't that they're smarter or more knowledgeable than everyone else. It's a handful of emotional skills, habits, and ways of looking at the world - which anyone can learn. With fascinating examples ranging from how to survive being stranded in the middle of the ocean, to how Jeff Bezos avoids overconfidence, to how superforecasters outperform CIA operatives, to Reddit threads and modern partisan politics, Galef explores why our brains deceive us and what we can do to change the way we think. 'With insights that are both sharp and actionable, The Scout Mindset picks up where Predictably Irrational left off. Reading it will teach you to think more clearly, see yourself more accurately, and be wrong a little less often' Adam Grant

Combinatorial optimization is a multidisciplinary scientific area, lying in the interface of three major scientific domains: mathematics, theoretical computer science and management. The three volumes of the Combinatorial Optimization series aim to cover a wide range of topics in this area. These topics also deal with fundamental notions and approaches as with several classical applications of combinatorial optimization. Concepts of Combinatorial Optimization, is divided into three parts: - On the complexity of combinatorial optimization problems, presenting basics about worst-case and randomized complexity; - Classical solution methods, presenting the two most-known methods for solving hard combinatorial optimization problems, that are Branch-and-Bound and Dynamic Programming; - Elements from mathematical programming, presenting fundamentals from mathematical programming based methods that are in the heart of Operations Research since the origins of this field.

Very few software projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original specification causing the global IT software industry to lose billions each year in project overruns and reworking software. Research supports that projects usually fail because of management mistakes rather than technical mistakes. Risk Management in Software Development Projects focuses on what the practitioner needs to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering software projects.Risk Management in Software Development Projects will help all practicing IT Project Managers and IT Managers understand: * Key components of the risk management process * Current processes and best practices for software risk identification * Techniques of risk analysis * Risk Planning * Management processes and be able to develop the process for various organizations

Intelligent IT Outsourcing enables practitioners to focus in on the essential issues that need to be addressed so that the fundamental structure of their sourcing strategy and its implementation is sound. The authors provide insight into the challenges likely to be faced and give detailed advice on how to pre-empt and manage these.

IT and outsourcing continue to be problematic, not least because fundamental learning about this subject fails to be applied systematically, and because IT is inherently difficult to manage. The economics are not obvious and emerging technologies have to be addressed, therefore IT goes to the heart of many enterprises and interfaces with multiple business units and processes, and there are continuous skills shortages.
Unfortunately complexities are not removed in outsourced situations where additional problems come into play, for example the supplier's capabilities, whether the IT is right for an outsourcing solution, and whether the contract is robust but flexible enough to allow for outsourcing to take place. Objectives need to be realistic, and factors such as whether the internal management is mature and capable enough in this field, and the impact of prohibitive switching costs on behaviour once an outsourcing deal has been signed all have to be taken into account.
The authors have built up over two decades of research, advisory and practitioner experience that enables them to distil the fundamental challenges in IT and outsourcing and demonstrate how these can be addressed.
* Focuses on the fundamentals of what should be done and what should be avoided, based on actual experience applied in major IT outsourcing deals
* Researchfindings and case examples included throughout to support recommended practices
* Written by highly experienced, internationally acknowledged experts in the field

Technology and Finance analyses the dramatic implications of technology for today's financial sector, for productivity growth and for monetary policy. A wide range of financial market activities are now technology driven; technology is also crucial in retail, private and corporate banking, and it has lowered entry barriers to the sector. New participants are flourishing as they are strongly supported by their technology.
Distinguished keynote speeches in this volume were initially featured in the latest highly-respected SUERF (Sociètè Universitaire Europèene de Recherches Financières) Colloquium. The articles cover the following topics:
*the impact of technology on financial institutions - evolution or revolution?
*the relationship between technology and financial markets, including the impact of 'electronification' on financial markets and deposit insurance systems.
*the real and potential impact of technology on productivity growth, and possible implications for economic growth, monetary policy and markets.
This volume represents the cutting edge of informed thinking on the implications of, and possible problems with, modern technology on contemporary finance.

eBook available with sample pages: 020322261X

Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?). The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles. The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.

Debra M. Amidon, a worldwide pioneer in knowledge strategy, once again leads you into the future by charting the intersection of knowledge management and innovation into a new frontier called 'Knowledge Innovation.' Groundbreaking and well researched, 'The Innovation SuperHighway' provides global insights into how you can use knowledge processes and tools to sustain high levels of innovation among all stakeholders to gain a competitive positioning.'The Innovation SuperHighway' awakens the realization that information, economic infrastructures, computer and communications technology - and even knowledge management and ICT's, has been a journey toward profitable and prosperous innovation. Providing the sound rationale for knowledge strategy, Amidon defines the global vision on all levels of economy the enterprise, the national economy and societal transformation.'The Innovation SuperHighway' turns knowledge vision into innovation practice.

Thoughtful and provocative, 'Realizing the Promise of Corporate Portals' illustrates the vast potential of corporate portals and what your company can do to implement them for business success. Based on the authors' extensive backgrounds and consulting focused on implementing corporate portals this exciting new book extends IT theory into business strategy. Terra and Gordon explore the components and architecture of typical corporate portals and fundamental issues in knowledge management. Geared for decision makers at the executive level, this book provides a comprehensive view of the market landscape, powerful and detailed case studies, and collected best practices and lessons learned to help organizations successfully implement corporate portals. The book also includes detailed checklists necessary for selecting and implementing appropriate corporate portal technical solutions.Learn from their detailed case studies of hugely successful corporate portal implementations, including: * ADC Telecommunications Inc.* Bain & Company* Bank of Montreal* Context Integration* Eli Lilly* Hill & Knowlton* Nortel Networks* SERPRO* Siemens* Texaco * Xerox

We are now in the 'third wave' of Knowledge Management - the first was focused on the potential of new technology, while the second focused on the nature of knowledge and how people 'know' and learn. The focus in the third phase is two-fold: building individual and team productivity, and proper alignment of Knowledge Management efforts in helping deliver on strategic goals of the organization.
Knowledge Management- a Blueprint for Delivery explores and builds on current ideas about the dynamics of knowledge in organizations, answering such questions as: 'What is knowledge management?' and 'What does it mean for today's companies and organizations?'
Written by two leading knowledge management practitioners, this book looks beyond academic theory and software company hype to focus on the roles that knowledge and information play in creating high-performance organizations.
Built on their extensive experience of Knowledge Management programme design and delivery, Knowledge Management- a Blueprint for Delivery:
- contains a comprehensive survey of the whole area of Knowledge Management, from theory and strategy creation through to techniques, tools, and delivery of change
- provides an insight into developing and managing Knowledge Management initiatives
- bridges the gap between theoretical, strategic, and practical hands-on perspectives
Contains a comprehensive survey of the whole area of Knowledge Management, from theory and strategy creation through to techniques, tools and delivery of change
Provides an insight into developing and managing Knowledge Management initiatives
Bridges the gap between theoretical, strategic and practical hands-on perspectives

This succinct and practical reference/text presents statistical reasoning and interpretational techniques to aid in the decision making process when faced with engineering problems-emphasizing the use of spreadsheet simulations and decision trees as important tools in the practical application of decision making analyses and models to improve real-world engineering operations. Offers new insight into the realities of high-stakes engineering decision making in the investigative and corporate sectors by optimizing engineering decision variables to maximize payoff. What Every Engineer Should Know About DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY presents new paradigms for engineering decision making covers customer-focused engineering decision making details spreadsheet simulation methods to help avoid bias and habitual behavior discusses continuous quality improvement versus business reengineering processes illustrates information value in decision making during uncertainty analyzes capital budgeting discusses the accuracy of sample estimates presents practical case studies from various engineering disciplines and shows how to tailor the illustrated methods to different applications Predicting outcomes of engineering decisions through regression analysis, this reference will benefit mechanical, civil, electrical and electronics, materials, chemical, mineral, cost, quality, reliability, industrial, product development, safety, forensic, and consulting engineers; architects; engineering managers; and project and program managers; and is an essential text for upper-level undergraduate, graduate, and continuing-education students in these disciplines.

Managing Risk in Organizations offers a proven framework for handling risks across all types of organizations. In this comprehensive resource, David Frame— a leading expert in risk management— examines the risks routinely encountered in business, offers prescriptions to assess the effects of various risks, and shows how to develop effective strategies to cope with risks. In addition, the book is filled with practical tools and techniques used by professional risk practitioners that can be readily applied by project managers, financial managers, and any manager or consultant who deals with risk within an organization. Managing Risk in Organizations is filled with illustrative case studies and

• Outlines the various types of riskpure, operational, project, technical, business, and political
• Reveals what risk management can and cannot accomplish
• Shows how to organize risk management efforts to conduct risk assessments, manage crises, and recover from disasters
• Includes a systematic risk management processrisk management planning, risk identification, qualitative impact analysis, quantitative impact analysis, risk response planning, and monitoring control
• Provides quantitative and qualitative tools to identify and handle risks

The WTO has laid the foundations for a new era of trade relations, and increased trade liberalization has improved global efficiency in production and consumption. The strengthening of trade rules, however, has increased the scope for disputes over interpretations of more extensive and complicated agreements, and has spilt over into environmental and scientific matters. One of the unforeseen consequences of the WTO agreements has been controversy over risk. This volume explores aspects of risk with special reference to the WTO, where national instruments to reduce risk may conflict with international trade rules. The book is divided into sections dealing with: * accounting for risk in trade agreements * risk and the WTO * managing risk in policy making * negotiating experience with risk * national risks and quarantine standards * managing biotechnology. The chapters offer many perspectives on risk assessment and benefit from a rich diversity of approaches as befits contributions from authors with backgrounds in law, economics, political science and environmental and natural science as well as policy making. Globalization and the Environment is a fascinating book that will draw its readership from these fields.

Tavistock Press was established as a co-operative venture between the Tavistock Institute and Routledge & Kegan Paul (RKP) in the 1950s to produce a series of major contributions across the social sciences. This volume is part of a 2001 reissue of a selection of those important works which have since gone out of print, or are difficult to locate. Published by Routledge, 112 volumes in total are being brought together under the name The International Behavioural and Social Sciences Library: Classics from the Tavistock Press. Reproduced here in facsimile, this volume was originally published in 1973 and is available individually. The collection is also available in a number of themed mini-sets of between 5 and 13 volumes, or as a complete collection.

To comply with legal and other standards, businesses and regulators are increasingly required to make decisions based on risk assessments of the potential effects of their activities on the environment. Atmospheric dispersion modelling is a cost-effective method, allowing various scenarios to be explored before expensive investment takes place. This guide offers advice on this environmental management tool. Unlike much of the previous literature, it doesn't focus excessively on the mathematical theory behind the modelling or on modelling for specific regulatory purposes. Instead, it offers an understanding of the background to the methodologies, providing exercises to develop the skills to carry these out and including examples of the use of commercially available models to enable the reader to assess the results of modelling for risk assessment.