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Books > Business & Economics > Business & management > Management & management techniques > Management decision making > General
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the "random expert" hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts' assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke's oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
This book illustrates how to access the right information for making the best decisions during turbulent times. It is written from an experienced-based perspective that is beneficial for those looking for the development and improvement of the decision-making process. The approach is centered on the author's experience in developing and implementing effective and efficient approaches to decision-making in business and government. Based on those experiences, this book provides insights into how to improve the decision making process of your organization, whether it be large or small. For decision makers and those providing market information for making decisions, this book provide guidelines for a framework which includes systems thinking. For those interested in change management and corporate governance, the book presents examples where it was done well and some examples where it was not and the ensuring consequences. Praise for Systems Thinking Decision-Making Process... "This is an absolutely incredible book by a distinguished practitioner. The range of knowledge and experience that Vince Barabba has had is astounding. I urge everyone who is interested in complex, messy problems to read this amazing book." --Ian I. Mitroff "...Vince has masterfully blended the art of organizational respect with the science of data inquiry to drive change and realize strategic vision. A master storyteller, he does not just teach, his book brings his learnings to life in a meaningful way that if carefully listened to, can change the course of a career." -- Paul D'Alessandro Principal, Health Industries, PwC US "In his latest book, Vince Barabba integrates his vast knowledge from 50 years of dedicated work in both the public and private sectors in order to provide leaders with an actionable framework for radically improving how their organizations collect and use information to make the best decisions for all the wicked messes that now appear in our global village... This book can save your company from living in the dark with false assumptions about all your key stakeholders." -- Ralph H. Kilmann, Ph.D. CEO, Kilmann Diagnostics Co-Author, The Thomas-Kilmann Conflict Mode Instrument (TKI) "Absorbing just a few of the many smart ideas in this book will make you a better leader and decision maker. Thinking systemically about how the hard-earned lessons from Vince Barabba's brilliant career apply to your enterprise could make you a great one." - Chunka Mui Co-Author, A Brief History of a Perfect Future and Billion Dollar Lessons "...if you are interested in 'thinking in systems,' this book is for you. The 'On Star' story demonstrates to you how the initial product-centered thinking was proselytized to 'thinking in systems'." -- John Pourdehnad Visiting Professor, IESE Business School and Faulty of Systems Leadership, Thomas Jefferson University "In writing Systems Thinking Decision-Making Process: How to Avoid Burnt Toast, Vince Barabba is addressing the limits of knowledge management systems which enable 'organizations as usual' to share best practices on how to scrape toast faster and cheaper... The examples shared by Vince, from his first-hand experiences in corporate America or his services as a marketing consultant, contribute invaluable clarity to his goal of providing a "sketch of an Inquiry Center Learning and Support System" for those with the ambition to lead efforts to work smarter, not harder, firmly against the grain of 'organizations as usual'..." -- Bill Bellows, Ph.D., President, InThinking Services Adjunct Professor, California State University, Northridge and Southern Utah University Advisory Council Member and Former Deputy Director, The W. Edwards Deming Institute (R) "In his 'last book', Vince weaves the experiences and learning of a lifetime into whole cloth of insight and wisdom. He helps us to find relevant information from a rapidly changing world and apply it to making good decisions. This is a masterpiece of knowledge presented in a very entertaining way." -- Carl Spetzler Chairman, Strategic Decisions Group International LLC "This is a truly inspiring and mind changing book directly relevant for our times... Vince has shown through his remarkable work that business and government are a force for good when leaders think long term, work with, not against nature, and use their influence and resources for the many, not the few..." -- Osvald Bjelland Founder and President, Xynteo Founder, The Performance Theatre Foundation
This book includes a spectrum of concepts, such as performance, productivity, operations research, econometrics, and data science, for the practically and theoretically important areas of 'productivity analysis/data envelopment analysis' and 'data science/big data'. Data science is defined as the collection of scientific methods, processes, and systems dedicated to extracting knowledge or insights from data and it develops on concepts from various domains, containing mathematics and statistical methods, operations research, machine learning, computer programming, pattern recognition, and data visualisation, among others. Examples of data science techniques include linear and logistic regressions, decision trees, Naive Bayesian classifier, principal component analysis, neural networks, predictive modelling, deep learning, text analysis, survival analysis, and so on, all of which allow using the data to make more intelligent decisions. On the other hand, it is without a doubt that nowadays the amount of data is exponentially increasing, and analysing large data sets has become a key basis of competition and innovation, underpinning new waves of productivity growth. This book aims to bring a fresh look onto the various ways that data science techniques could unleash value and drive productivity from these mountains of data. Researchers working in productivity analysis/data envelopment analysis will benefit from learning about the tools available in data science/big data that can be used in their current research analyses and endeavours. The data scientists, on the other hand, will also get benefit from learning about the plethora of applications available in productivity analysis/data envelopment analysis.
Managing Knowledge is an extensive and eminently readable overview of the most important ideas, tools and current applications of knowledge management. The authors rely on an innovative 'building block' approach and provide a detailed description of the most important knowledge processes in organizations. "We are experiencing a paradigm shift from an industrial age to a service/knowledge age. We are all looking for new answers that will give meaning and purpose to our efforts, and make sense of knowledge processes. This book is an excellent tool: it is easy to read and contains practical examples which help us to deal with the issues. I enjoyed reading it." Heinz Fischer, Vice-President (Personnel), Deutsche Bank "Knowledge of customer needs, markets, patents, products and processes is a key strategic resource in today's business world. The use of this resource, particularly in larger companies, is becoming a matter of survival in highly competitive and innovation-driven markets. The practical approach to knowledge management offered by Gilbert Probst, Steffen Raub and Kai Romhardt should prove an extremely useful tool." Heinrich v. Pierer, President and CEO, Siemens AG "In this book Professor Pobst and his colleagues show in a great way how to systematize and work on increasing the efficiency of strategic knowledge management." Leif Edvinsson, Director, Intellectual Capital, Skandia "Knowledge will dominate our entire 21st century social environment. Organizations will rapidly divide into those that know and those that don't. Leaders of tomorrow must make better use than they have done in the past of what knowledge their employees hold. This book will show you how." Bob Bishop, Chairman, Silicon Graphics World Trade Corporation
Measuring Human Capital addresses a country's most important resource: its own people. Bettering human capital benefits individuals and their country and leads to improved sustainability for the future. For many years economists only used Gross Domestic Product (GDP), now acknowledged to be inadequate without supplemental measures, to gauge a country's overall value. There is now a recognition that many variables contribute to a country's worth, which make accurate measurement difficult. Looking beyond GDP by focusing on human capital, researchers, policymakers, government officials, and students can understand what elements impact human capital and how they might improve it in order to increase economic growth and well-being.
Inquiring Organizations: Moving from Knowledge Management to Wisdom' assembles into one volume a comprehensive collection of the key current thinking regarding the use of C. West Churchman's Design of Inquiring Systems as a basis for computer-based inquiring systems design and implementation. Inquiring systems are systems that go beyond knowledge management to actively inquire about their environment. While self-adaptive is an appropriate adjective for inquiring systems, they are critically different from self-adapting systems as they have evolved in the fields of computer science or artificial intelligence. Inquiring systems draw on epistemology to guide knowledge creation and organizational learning. As such, we can for the first time ever, begin to entertain the notion of support for wise"" decision-making. Readers of ""Inquiring Organizations: Moving from Knowledge Management to Wisdom"" will gain an appreciation for the role that epistemology can play in the design of the next generation of knowledge management systems, systems that focus on supporting wise decision-making processes.
This book examines Foreign Direct Investment of major Korean automotive companies in Europe, with particular reference to how economic integration has affected the motivations and patterns of FDI and industrial location. The book is a valuable source of information on FDI, the automobile industry in Europe and South Korea and business decision-making process in general.
This book is about understanding feminist theories and feminist economics through a multi-paradigmatic approach. For this purpose, the book starts with a discussion of four most diverse worldviews or paradigms (i.e., functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, radical structuralist). Then, it discusses six relevant social aspects (i.e., human nature, feminist theories, family, patriarchy, discrimination, feminist economics) from the viewpoints of the four most diverse worldviews or paradigms. Next, the book looks at some of the writings in the feminist theories and feminist economics literature (such as: feminist research, feminist education, economics versus sociology, and men versus women) from the point of view of the multi-paradigmatic approach to gain a better understanding of the differences. The book concludes by recommending paradigm diversity. This book crosses two existing lines of literature: social philosophy and feminism. The book maintains that social theory can usefully be conceived in terms of four broad paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. The book emphasizes that the four paradigms are equally scientific and informative; each looks at a given phenomenon from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. An understanding of different paradigms leads to a broader and balanced understanding of the phenomenon. Overall, the book advocates paradigm diversity.
The ‘IT Productivity Paradox’ is the concept that, despite massive investment and resourcing by companies and organizations worldwide in their IT systems, there still seems to be little pay-off. Information systems can no longer be viewed as a support service for a business — information technology now has a lead role to play in the strategic planning processes of any organization. As we move further and further into a technology-based working environment, a critical question is how the value of IT can be measured and evaluated. This book brings together a group of the most eminent academic and practitioner thinkers in the area, to consolidate what we know about best IT evaluation practice in a comprehensive and integrated manner, and also provide new ways forward. The key to understanding the productivity paradox is the methods of IT measurement used. Improved measurement can not only reveal that IT has often been more productive than is believed, but can also focus in on ways in which benefits can be improved across the IT systems life-cycle. Critical areas where improved assessment is essential include development, and better risk analysis; sourcing, including IT outsourcing; and infrastructure, including transforming an organization’s IT architecture. The authors also take a look at stakeholder interests as a part of the overall evaluation process. Contributors to this volume have been selected not only for their status in the IS field generally, but also for their reputation in the IT evaluation area. As this topic gains increasing prominence as IT expenditure continues to increase, this book will be an invaluable reference for academics and practitioners alike in the areas of information systems, IT evaluation and assessment and IT management.
This book explores how the ethically inconsistent behaviour in workplaces can be rooted in moral fibers of the decision-makers, and/or in their varying moral foci depending on the philosophical cornerstones, on which those rest. It explores further whether such decisions may be shaped or modified by contextual factors leading, possibly, to bounded ethicality. Based on a primary survey approaching the academicians, administrators, and other service-holders from India and abroad, it analyses the problem, its determinants and variations across socio-economic and demographic factors.
Under the increasing influence of globalization, integration and technological progress, modern business systems have become highly complex in terms of their organization, strategies and management. Specifics of Decision Making in Modern Business Systems: Regularities and Tendencies concentrates on how this changing context of the modern business system affects the process of decision making within organizations and corporations. With a focus on the regularities and tendencies of decision making within modern Russian business systems, the numerous contributors provide alternative and innovative ways to optimize and develop the process of decision making within businesses globally. This includes the use of forecasting within the consumer market, a consideration of public-private partnerships, and the development of a cluster platform to unify large, medium and small businesses. Specifics of Decision Making in Modern Business Systems provides a useful insight into the optimization of decision making within businesses for researchers and practitioners working within information economy creation and development and management strategy.
"The one, only, and by far the best book synthesizing psychology and investing. In addition to providing modern, scientific knowledge about psychology, this book provides a mirror into the mind and wide breadth of knowledge of one of the leading practitioners of brief and effectual cures. Will help to cure your trading and your life." "How refreshing! A book that rises above the old NLP model of the 80’s and provides insights on how our relationship with the market is indeed a very personal one. Not only has Steenbarger provided some fantastic tools for the trader to transform his mindset, but he has contributed unique trading ideas as well. Brilliant!" "‘Investigate, before you invest’ was for many years the slogan of the New York Stock Exchange. I always thought a better one would be, ‘Investigate YOURSELF, before you invest.’ The Psychology of Trading should help you increase your annual investment rate of return. Mandatory reading for anyone intending to earn a livelihood through trading. " "This highly readable, highly educational, and highly entertaining book will teach you as much about yourself as about trading. It’s Oliver Sacks meets Mr. Market–extraordinary tales of ordinary professionals and individuals with investment disorders, and how they successfully overcame them. It is a must-read both for private investors who have been shell-shocked in the bear market and want to learn how to start again, as well as for pros who seek an extra edge from extra inner knowledge. Steenbarger’s personal voyage into the mind of the market is destined to become a classic." "Dr. Steenbarger’s fascinating, highly readable blend of practical insights from his dual careers as a brilliant psychologist and trader will benefit every investor; knowing oneself is as important as knowing the market."
Aiding Decisions With Multiple Criteria: Essays in Honor of Bernard Roy is organized around two broad themes: * Graph Theory with path-breaking contributions on the theory of flows in networks and project scheduling, * Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding with the invention of the family of ELECTRE methods and methodological contribution to decision-aiding which lead to the creation of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Professor Bernard Roy has had considerable influence on the development of these two broad areas. GBP/LISTGBP Part one contains papers by Jacques Lesourne, and Dominique de Werra & Pierre Hansen related to the early career of Bernard Roy when he developed many new techniques and concepts in Graph Theory in order to cope with complex real-world problems. Part two of the book is devoted to Philosophy and Epistemology of Decision-Aiding with contributions from Valerie Belton & Jacques Pictet and Jean-Luis Genard & Marc Pirlot. Part three includes contributions based on Theory and Methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision-Aiding based on a general framework for conjoint measurement that allows intrasitive preferences. Denis Bouyssou & Marc Pirlot; Alexis Tsoukias, Patrice Perny & Philippe Vincke; Luis Dias & Joao Climaco; Daniel Vanderpooten; Michael Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis; and Marc Roubens offer a considerable range of examinations of this aspect of MCDA. Part four is devoted to Perference Modeling with contributions from Peter Fishburn; Salvatore Greco, Benedetto Matarazzo & Roman Slowinski; Salem Benferhat, Didier Dubois & Henri Prade; Oscar Franzese & Mark McCord; Bertrand Munier; and Raymond Bisdorff. Part five groups Applications of Multi-Criteria Decision-Aiding, and Carlos Henggeler Antunes, Carla Oliveira & Joao Climaco; Carlos Bana e Costa, Manuel da Costa-Lobo, Isabel Ramos & Jean-Claude Vansnick; Yannis Siskos & Evangelos Grigoroudis; Jean-Pierre Brans, Pierre Kunsch & Bertrand Mareschal offer a wide variety of application problems. Finally, Part six includes contributions on Multi-Objective Mathematical Programming from Jacques Teghem, Walter Habenicht and Pekka Korhonen.
This book has resulted from the activities of IFAC TC 5.2 "Manufacturing Modelling for Management and Control". The book offers an introduction and advanced techniques of scheduling applications to cloud manufacturing and Industry 4.0 systems for larger audience. This book uncovers fundamental principles and recent developments in the theory and application of scheduling methodology to cloud manufacturing and Industry 4.0. The purpose of this book is to present recent developments in scheduling in cloud manufacturing and Industry 4.0 and to systemize these developments in new taxonomies and methodological principles to shape this new research domain. This book addresses the needs of both researchers and practitioners to uncover the challenges and opportunities of scheduling techniques' applications to cloud manufacturing and Industry 4.0. For the first time, it comprehensively conceptualizes scheduling in cloud manufacturing and Industry 4.0 systems as a new research domain. The chapters of the book are written by the leading international experts and utilize methods of operations research, industrial engineering and computer science. Such a multi-disciplinary combination is unique and comprehensively deciphers major problem taxonomies, methodologies, and applications to scheduling in cloud manufacturing and Industry 4.0.
Provides a blueprint for your company's sustained and profitable growth. Let's face it: sustained business growth doesn't just happen. Growth must be planned for and executed, cultivated from a strategic standpoint and applied tactically at the frontline, led by the right people, and focused on the right objectives. The Growth Advantage provides a blueprint for sustained and profitable growth for any business. It is designed to help companies build the ultimate competitive edge. The book is broken into three parts that outline the Planning Advantage, the Execution Advantage, and the Company Advantage, which will help you align your company with its goals. The Growth Advantage cracks open the business secrets that teach companies how to achieve that dream of steady, predictable growth through effective planning and solid execution. Readers learn how their company can develop and sustain a blueprint for growth that guides company actions on a daily and weekly basis. Combining elements of culture, strategy, planning, execution, talent acquisition, training, motivation, accountability, and brand differentiation into one book with clear, actionable steps, Bob Lisser brings readers along a journey that starts with a plan and ends with success.
For courses on decision modeling through the use of spreadsheets. The perfect balance between decision modeling and spreadsheet use. It's important that textbooks support decision modeling courses by combining student's ability to logically model and analyze diverse decision-making scenarios with software-based solution procedures. Balakrishnan offers the perfect balance of the decision modeling process and the use of spreadsheets to set up and solve decision models. The third edition has been updated to reflect the latest version of Excel.
Praise for Risk budgeting "Professor Pearson has raised the bar for books on market risk. Moving beyond descriptions of VaR calculation and stress testing, he provides careful discussions of both the refinements and the limits of the VaR technique. Even more importantly, this book provides structure to the heretofore vague idea of ‘risk budgeting.’ " "Pearson has written an excellent resource for risk management practitioners who actually need to compute and use VaR. Numerous concrete examples make a broad range of VaR techniques accessible to the people who actually need to use them. The book also provides tangible applications of risk budgeting, a term often used but rarely made relevant. Pearson has put meat on the bones for plan sponsors who want to actually employ risk budgeting techniques." "An excellent book. This text provides a bridge from the theoretical to the practical, and clears the fog between the buzzwords of risk budgeting and the realities of a useful new portfolio management tool. Pearson’s writing is well balanced between needed academic foundation and the practicalities of managing portfolios." "I just wish I could summarize this book as ably as Professor Pearson summarizes the voluminous literature on Value-at-Risk. Unfortunately, I suspect no further compression is possible. To reduce the risk of reading rubbish, your best bet is to read this book."
What can managers in today's uncertain, unimaginably complex world learn from President Obama and top Chinese executives? Charles-Edouard Bouee proposes "light footprint" management - comparable to a new American military doctrine and similar to a recently emerged Chinese management style that subordinates strategy to vision and tactics. Bouee explains how conventional management methodologies, techniques and tools can be adapted to the conditions of an increasingly ambiguous and apparently unmanageable world. "Light Footprint Management" explains the dynamics of the new business environment and describes the kinds of organization most likely to succeed in it.
The book presents the proceedings of the 4th EAI International Conference on Management of Manufacturing Systems (MMS 2019), which took place in Krynica Zdroj, Poland, on October 8-10, 2019. The conference covered Management of Manufacturing Systems with support for Industry 4.0, Logistics and Intelligent Manufacturing Systems and Applications, Cooperation management and its effective applications. Topics include RFID Applications, Economic Impacts in Logistics, ICT Support for Industry 4.0, Industrial and Smart Logistics, Intelligent Manufacturing Systems and Applications, and much more.
This book covers several new areas in the growing field of analytics with some innovative applications in different business contexts, and consists of selected presentations at the 6th IIMA International Conference on Advanced Data Analysis, Business Analytics and Intelligence. The book is conceptually divided in seven parts. The first part gives expository briefs on some topics of current academic and practitioner interests, such as data streams, binary prediction and reliability shock models. In the second part, the contributions look at artificial intelligence applications with chapters related to explainable AI, personalized search and recommendation, and customer retention management. The third part deals with credit risk analytics, with chapters on optimization of credit limits and mitigation of agricultural lending risks. In its fourth part, the book explores analytics and data mining in the retail context. In the fifth part, the book presents some applications of analytics to operations management. This part has chapters related to improvement of furnace operations, forecasting food indices and analytics for improving student learning outcomes. The sixth part has contributions related to adaptive designs in clinical trials, stochastic comparisons of systems with heterogeneous components and stacking of models. The seventh and final part contains chapters related to finance and economics topics, such as role of infrastructure and taxation on economic growth of countries and connectedness of markets with heterogenous agents, The different themes ensure that the book would be of great value to practitioners, post-graduate students, research scholars and faculty teaching advanced business analytics courses.
The Economics of Globally Shared and Public Goods responds to an urgent need to consolidate and refine the economic theories and explanations pertinent to globally shared resources. Making a clear distinction between theories and empirical models, it elucidates the problem of global public goods while incorporating insights from behavioral economics. Its comprehensive and technical review of existing theoretical models and their empirical results illuminate those models in practical applications. Relevant for economists and others working on challenges of globally shared goods such as climate change and global catastrophes, The Economics of Globally Shared and Public Goods provides a path toward greater co-operation and shared successes.
This book provides comprehensive coverage of the latest research on multiple criteria research analysis (MCDA) and related areas, gathering a collection of high-quality chapters prepared by leading scholars in the field. By covering the established streams in MCDA research and simultaneously exploring new and emerging areas of application, it offers a unique reference resource for the future development of MCDA. The book approaches MCDA as one of the most active areas in operations research and management science (OR/MS). It presents not only the significant advances achieved to date, but also the new opportunities and challenges arising for both the theory and practice of MCDA. Among many others, the book addresses behavioral and conceptual aspects of decision aiding and decision making, problem structuring issues in the framework of new technological and socio-economic advances, methodological and algorithmic advances for analytical modeling and decision aiding, as well as a number of new application areas in engineering, business, and the social sciences.
ICT-Driven Economic and Financial Development: Analyses of European Countries demonstrates the effects of ICT diffusion on economic, social and financial development by examining their impact on the structure and dynamics of national economies. It provides the insight into shifts observed in labour markets, international trade activities productivity factors, education and use of innovative financial products. It combines empirical analyses and data sources stretching back to 1990 make it an important contribution to understanding the effects of ICT diffusion on economic and financial development. The book answers questions such as how will national and regional economies react to upcoming ICT developments and growing usage, and what is the magnitude of impact of new information and communication technologies on various aspects of social and economic life.
Focusing on modern business systems from within the modern Russian context, this book examines how companies can become leading competitors globally within their industries through new decision making processes. Whilst current practices support the sustainability of a business system in terms of maintaining normal functionality and the prevention of crises, there is a need to consider the goals of leading organizations with larger business systems and greater resources. These goals can be more global in their focus and envisage the creation or strengthening of competitive advantages. Contributors of this book explore large scale industries specializing in hi-tech spheres of economy and instigate innovative activity in the face of high-levels of competition. Specific industries analyzed in this content include digital medicine, energy efficiency and car manufacturers. Using models of optimization and a range of real-world case studies, the book provides tools, technological analysis and techniques for practitioners to use within their own decision-making practices. For scholars researching business management, leadership and decision-making, this book also offers a useful insight into how optimized decision-making processes can be applied to the modern business system. |
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