This long-awaited textbook provides a unified perspective of a rich and varied field. Using a set of illustrative examples, Decision Sciences synthesizes current research about different types of decision making, including individual, group, organizational, and societal. Special attention is given to the linkage between problem finding and problem solving. The principal message emerging from the book is that decision making entails a complex set of processes that need to be understood in order to develop sound prescriptions or policy advice.

Mathematical Methods of Environmental Risk Modeling provides a working introduction to both the general mathematical methods and specific models used for human health risk assessment. Rather than being purely an applied math book, this book focuses on methods and models that students and professionals are likely to encounter in practice. Examples are given from exposure assessment, pharmacokinetic modeling, and dose-response modeling.

Knowledge Unplugged announces the results of a major survey of knowledge management practice within the most influential companies in the world, by the most influential management consultancy group in the world. The McKinsey Knowledge Management team interviewed top executives and also investigated how far their plans were implemented in practice, in 40 companies in the US, Europe and Japan. In many companies they discovered a significant gap between the vision at the top and the reality on the shop floor. Knowledge Unplugged draws together their findings and presents a practical guide to improving knowledge building and sharing at all levels within an organization, vividly illustrated with case studies of best practice and common pitfalls. They argue that knowledge management is much more than simply installing a new database and can only be successful when it is at the heart of everyday personal exchanges, personal incentives and personal responsibilities at every level of the firm.

This book concentrates on one of the most important directions for research on banking and finance for the next decade: the problem of information and risk management. Recent theoretical and empirical contributions consider asymmetric information between investors and financiers as a major determinant of financial risk. In this framwork, financial and banking innovation may be regarded as policy and individual agents' response to the problem of asymmetric information and risk management and also as a self-generated innovation process posing new challenges to policymakers in terms of informational efficiency and risk control.

This book is a revised version of my doctoral dissertation submitted to the University of St. Gallen in October 1999. I would like to thank Dr. oec. Marc Wildi whose careful reading of much of the text led to many improvements. All errors remain mine. Pfiiffikon SZ, Switzerland, March 2001 Pierre-Yves Moix Preface to the dissertation "Education is man's going forward from cocksure ignorance to thoughtful uncertainty" Don Clark's Scrapbook quoted in Wonnacott and Wonnacott (1990). After several years of banking practice, I decided to give up some of my certitudes and considered this thesis project a good opportunity to study some of the quantitative tools necessary for the modelling of uncertainty. lowe very much to Prof. Dr. Karl Frauendorfer, the referee of my thesis, for the time he took to read the manuscript and for the numerous valuable suggestions he made. I am also very grateful to Prof. Dr. Klaus Spremann who kindly accepted to co-refer my thesis and who strengthened my inter est in finance during my study period. During my time at the Institute for Operations Research of the University of St. Gallen (lfU-HSG) I had the opportunity to participate in the project "RiskLab" which provides a very profitable link between finance practice and academics. I would especially like to thank Dr. Christophe Rouvinez from Credit Suisse for his comments and all the data he provided so generously."

The purpose of Multiple Criteria Analysis in Strategic Siting Problems is to demonstrate how multiple criteria can be used in analysis of facility location problems. The book begins with an overview, explains the internationally most popular multiple objective analysis methods, and demonstrates their applications on real problems. Siting problems reviewed include nuclear waste disposal in the U.S., solid waste management in Finland, pipeline location in India, and pipeline location in Russia. Methods covered are multiattribute utility analysis, analytic hierarchy process, the ELECTRE outranking method, and verbal decision analysis. The book concludes with a comparative review of methods. The book uses the multi-attribute, multi-party framework of Kunreuther to present the decision context, to include parties with interests in the decisions, as well as the sequence of project events. This perspective is valuable in identifying the qualitative backgrounds of siting problems that need to be considered. The book demonstrates the importance of multiple criteria in hazardous facility site selection. It also shows how each of the four methodologies covered operate, both in terms of demonstration problems worked with numbers, and how these methods have been applied in the real applications. The real applications were taken from refereed journal documentation, with the exception of Russian pipeline analysis decisions in which Professor Larichev participated. The book is recommended for those interested in decision-making involving problems with social import. This includes environmental aspects, as well as international aspects of decision making.

This volume presents new concepts and methods in Air Traffic Management, in particular: Collaborative Decision Making, as it incorporates for the first time airline companies in the management process; Congestion Pricing, as many part of the systems are and will remain saturated, hence only leveling of demand can contribute to global efficiency; Flow Management Methods, as the most important tools in planning and analysis; Models of Controller-Pilot Interaction, as deregulation increases the workload of this communication; Weather Forecast, as airport capacity is strongly affected by weather conditions.

Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?). The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles. The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.

This practical 'how-to'book describes all the key operations of ARIS Toolset - the market leading Business Process Modelling Tool. Using lots of screen shots and plenty of practical examples, Rob Davis shows how ARIS can be used to model 'your' business processes.Based on his experience of using ARIS in British Telecommunications plc, the author describes practical ways of using ARIS Toolset:- Explaining the models and techniques that will enable new users to start modelling quickly and effectively.- Introducing tips and short cuts which make using the tool much easier.- Giving insights into the ARIS concepts.- Explaining the rationale behind alternative ways of using the tool, their benefits and the trade-offs involved.- Tackling issues found in real projects (e.g. complex model structures, handling variety, etc), as opposed to the simple examples given in many books.In addition to describing how to use the tool, Rob Davis discusses how to create standards for using ARIS as well as giving guidance on how to use ARIS for process capture and design.Business Process Modelling with ARIS is a 'must have'for every user of ARIS.

This volume contains a selection of papers presented at the Symposium on Operations Research 2000 (OR 2000) held at the Dresden University of Technology, September 9-12, 2000. This international Symposium was organized by the German Operations Research Society GOR in the series of its annual conferences. The Symposium had 354 participants from IS countries around the world. The 210 lectures reflected the broad spectrum of Operations Research and its interdisciplinarity, involving economics, mathematics and computer science. The volume is arranged in 14 Sections, like the conference, and a special section with the papers of the winners of the GOR Diploma Thesis award. The 86 papers have been selected by the chairpersons of the sections and the editors. Compared to previous conferences, the number of sections has been reduced by combining some overlapping sections: The former sections for linear and nonlinear programming are now contained in the 'Continuous Optimization' Section, the graph theory has been included in the 'Discrete and Combinatorial Optimization' Section. The traditional application fields are growing together in the scope of the current 'Supply Chain Management' thinking. This is considered in a corresponding section. Its high number of papers at the conference and in this volume underlines the importance of Operations Research for this modem management concept. For the first time, the conference included a section on 'Didactics of Operations Research', which found a great echo and is represented by four papers in this volume.

Aspects of Safety Management contains the invited papers presented at the ninth annual Safety-critical Systems Symposium, held in Bristol, February 2001. For some time, it has been recognised that technical issues are only one side of the safety coin. The other, often dominant feature, is active, informed and committed management. An understanding of risk, emphasis on education and the use of language, attention to learning lessons from both research and other industry sectors, and the development of the appropriate staff competences, are all aspects of safety management. The papers contained within this volume cover a broad range of subjects, but all have the common link of safety management. They present a great deal of industrial experience, as well as some recent academic research.

Residential Exposure Assessment: A Source Book is the result of a multiyear effort known as the Residential Exposure Assessment Project (REAP) which was initiated by the Society for Risk Analysis and the International Society of Exposure Analysis. This textbook is the primary product of the REAP and it contains contributions from over 30 professionals from a variety of disciplines such as chemistry, biology, physics, engi neering, industrial hygiene, toxicology, pharmacology, and environmental law, reflecting the diverse knowledge and resources necessary to assess and manage potential exposures occurring in and around the home. Expert working groups were organized for each of the 13 chapters to address such issues as U. S. legislation relevant to products used in and around the residence, methods for measuring and modeling exposures across multiple pathways and routes, and distributional data available for key residential exposure factors. This volume is a compendium of information about predictive methods and tools, monitoring methods, data sources, and key variables that characterize exposures in the residential setting. It presents approaches for doing exposure assessments in and around all types of residences. The purpose of the Source Book is to provide a resource for use in educational programs and for "practitioners" of residential exposure assessment. Accordingly, this book is intended for risk assessors, exposure assessors, students, initi ates new to the concept of risk assessment, industrial hygienists assessing health hazards in the home, engineers, and monitoring specialists."

Mathematical models are being increasingly used to estimate the concentrations of a wide range of substances in the environment for a variety of reasons, including government control and legislation, and risk and hazard estimation. Exposure assessment has to be performed for many types of substances, including pesticides, industrial chemicals, pollutants, accidental discharges, etc. The interpretation of the results of model equations should always bear in mind the purpose for which the model used was built in the first place. Further, models are always an abstraction of reality, requiring simplifying assumptions to keep the models within the restraints posed by computer performance and/or scientific knowledge. The present book treats the theme of modelling chemical exposure and risk in terms of four main topics: model characteristics, applications, comparison of estimated with measured concentrations, and modelling credibility.

Mathematical models are being increasingly used to estimate the concentrations of a wide range of substances in the environment for a variety of reasons, including government control and legislation, and risk and hazard estimation. Exposure assessment has to be performed for many types of substances, including pesticides, industrial chemicals, pollutants, accidental discharges, etc. The interpretation of the results of model equations should always bear in mind the purpose for which the model used was built in the first place. Further, models are always an abstraction of reality, requiring simplifying assumptions to keep the models within the restraints posed by computer performance and/or scientific knowledge. The present book treats the theme of modelling chemical exposure and risk in terms of four main topics: model characteristics, applications, comparison of estimated with measured concentrations, and modelling credibility.

Multiple criteria decision-making research has developed rapidly and has become a main area of research for dealing with complex decision problems which require the consideration of multiple objectives or criteria. Over the past twenty years, numerous multiple criterion decision methods have been developed which are able to solve such problems. However, the selection of an appropriate method to solve a particular decision problem is today's problem for a decision support researcher and decision-maker. Intelligent Strategies for Meta Multiple Criteria Decision-Making deals centrally with the problem of the numerous MCDM methods that can be applied to a decision problem. The book refers to this as a meta decision problem', and it is this problem that the book analyzes. The author provides two strategies to help the decision-makers select and design an appropriate approach to a complex decision problem. Either of these strategies can be designed into a decision support system itself. One strategy is to use machine learning to design an MCDM method. This is accomplished by applying intelligent techniques, namely neural networks as a structure for approximating functions and evolutionary algorithms as universal learning methods. The other strategy is based on solving the meta decision problem interactively by selecting or designing a method suitable to the specific problem, for example, the constructing of a method from building blocks. This strategy leads to a concept of MCDM networks. Examples of this approach for a decision support system explain the possibilities of applying the elaborated techniques and their mutual interplay. The techniques outlined in the book can be used by researchers, students, and industry practitioners to better model and select appropriate methods for solving complex, multi-objective decision problems.

The purpose of Evaluation and Decision Models: A Critical Perspective is to provide a critical thinking framework for all individuals utilizing decision and evaluation models, whether it be for research or applications. It is axiomatic that all evaluation and decision models suffer some limitations. There are situations where a decision model will not perform to expectations. This book argues that there is no best decision or evaluation model, but that decision-makers must understand the principles of formal evaluation and decision models and apply them critically. Hence, the book seeks to deepen our understanding of evaluation and decision models and encourage users of these models to think more analytically about them. The authors work in six different European universities. Their backgrounds are varied: mathematics, economics, engineering, law, and geology, and they teach in engineering, business, mathematics, computer science, and psychology in their universities. As a group, the authors have particular expertise in a variety of decision models that include preference modelling, fuzzy logic, aggregation techniques, social choice theory, artificial intelligence, problem structuring, measurement theory, operations research, and multiple criteria decision support. In addition to their decision analysis research, all the authors have been involved in a variety of high-impact applications which include software evaluation, location of a nuclear repository, the rehabilitation of a sewer network, and the location of high-voltage lines. It is this variety within the authorship that unifies this book into a systematic examination of how best formal decision models can be used. The monographis an excellent tool for researchers of decision analysis and decision-makers.

This chapter describes a study conducted at the Swinburne University of Technology in Australia, in their School of Business. The study was to explore the applicability of a judgment-analytic decision support system to the assessment of the likelihood of an applicant being selected for admission to the School's Graduate Certificate in Business Administration (GCBA) program. The likelihood of a program administrator selecting a particular applicant is directly linked to the assessment of the likelihood of that applicant's success in the GCBA program. The purpose of this study, in effect, was to analyze the administrative judgment process in assessment of an applicant's likelihood of success in the program. THE PROCESS OF HUMAN JUDGMENT Human judgment is a process through which an individual uses social infonnation to make decisions. The social infonnation is obtained from an individual's environment and is interpreted through the individual's cognitive image of the environment. The. cognitive image provides a representation of the environment based on past experiences and training, and essentially predisposes the person to respond to social infonnation in predictable ways. An individual's policies or beliefs about the environment represent these patterns. Human judgments are based then upon one's interpretation of available infonnation. They are probability statements about one's environment and how one reacts to it. This condition leads to the human judgment process being inherently limited. It is fundamentally a covert process. It is seldom possible for an individual to accurately describe his or her judgment process accurately.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) has been one of the fastest growing problem areas in many disciplines. The central problem is how to evaluate a set of alternatives in terms of a number of criteria. Although this problem is very relevant in practice, there are few methods available and their quality is hard to determine. Thus, the question Which is the best method for a given problem?' has become one of the most important and challenging ones. This is exactly what this book has as its focus and why it is important. The author extensively compares, both theoretically and empirically, real-life MCDM issues and makes the reader aware of quite a number of surprising abnormalities' with some of these methods. What makes this book so valuable and different is that even though the analyses are rigorous, the results can be understood even by the non-specialist. Audience: Researchers, practitioners, and students; it can be used as a textbook for senior undergraduate or graduate courses in business and engineering.

Reliability, Maintainability, and Supportability play a crucial role in achieving a competitive product. While manufacturing costs are important for the success of a product, they are not the sole domains in realizing its competitive edge. Improved manufacturing and operating quality and performance coupled with reduced acquisition cost and in-service cost of ownership are important in achieving business success. It is the early phase of design which offers the greatest opportunity to address these requirements, and thus create life cycle effectiveness. The main objective of Reliability, Maintenance and Logistic Support - A Life Cycle Approach is to provide an integrated approach to reliability, maintainability, maintenance and logistic support analysis. We not only look at the ways we can improve the design process to ensure the product offers value for money, but we also consider how the owners can get the most from these products once they have entered service. The approach provides a meaningful way of integrating reliability, maintenance and supportability to enhance the product performance and sales opportunities. Hence, the book covers the following objectives: (1) Introduce the concepts of reliability, maintainability and supportability and their role in the system life cycle and effectiveness. (2) Introduce the basic probability and statistical techniques that are essential for modelling reliability, maintainability and supportability problems. (3) Introduce reliability measures: how to predict them; how to determine from in-service real-world data; how to use them. (4) Analysis of advanced models in Reliability. (5) Discuss basic and advanced concepts in both maintainability and maintenance including preventive, corrective and condition based maintenance. (6) Discuss maintenance management and optimization concepts, such as reliability-centered maintenance and age-related maintenance. (7) Provide basic concepts in supportability and Integrated logistic support. (8) Discuss techniques for design for reliability, maintainability and supportability. (9) Analysis of simple and advanced models in spares forecasting and optimization. (10) Discuss data analysis, data management and data mining techniques.

This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.

Learning plays a fundamental role in the production planning and growth of all organizations. With the need for more rapid changes in the global economy, the management of organizational change is a key factor in sustaining competitiveness in today's economy. This book has been developed with these learning needs' in mind. Human Learning: From Learning Curves to Learning Organizations covers a broad range of learning models and related topics beginning with learning curves to recent research on learning organizations. The book's focus is to enable researchers and practitioners to forecast any organization's learning needs' using the prediction aspects of an array of learning models. The book includes research and application discussions on topics such as accounting for previous experience; the learning-forgetting-relearning' phenomenon; parameter estimation with no previous experience; DeJong's incompressibility model; predictive learning models requiring only two learning parameters; long learning cycle times; the speed-error relationship; evaluating the cost of learning from the point of view of safety; and an examination of Learning Organizations. Each chapter is developed from published research and worked examples are used throughout.

This book brings together three great motifs of the network society: the seeking and using of information by individuals and groups; the creation and application of knowledge in organizations; and the fundamental transformation of these activities as they are enacted on the Internet and the World Wide Web. Of the three, the study of how individuals and groups seek information probably has the longest history, beginning with the early "information needs and uses" studies soon after the Second World War. The study of organizations as knowledge-based social systems is much more recent, and really gained momentum only within the last decade or so. The study of the World Wide Web as information and communication media is younger still, but has generated tremendous excitement, partly because it has the potential to reconfigure the ways in which people seek information and use knowledge, and partly because it offers new methods of analyzing and measuring how in fact such information and knowledge work gets done. As research endeavors, these streams overlap and share conceptual constructs, perspectives, and methods of analysis. Although these overlaps and shared concerns are sometimes apparent in the published research, there have been few attempts to connect these ideas explicitly and identify cross-disciplinary themes. This book is an attempt to fill this void. The three authors of this book possess contrasting backgrounds and thus adopt complementary vantage points to observe information seeking and knowledge work.

In a time when the world is facing significant challenges, leaders who work for justice and equity for all people are necessary. Transformative Leadership in Action: Allyship, Advocacy, and Activism challenges the reader to do the essential self-work required of a 21st century leader, and provides the road map to developing the skills necessary to take on increasing public leadership roles to support causes related to justice and equity. Shining a light on unexplored, yet crucial, components of the discussion around the apex of leadership and social justice, Bruce and McKee first investigate the tie between social justice work and leadership competencies grounded in theory. Second, they put forward a pedagogical guide in teaching at this apex-engaging both the instructor and student(s) in unique learning journeys. Offering insight for educators, current leaders, and future leaders, this book is a crucial resource - providing go-to support for engaging in allyship, advocacy, and activism for justice and equity. If you want your learners to be leaders and not just think about leadership, this is the book you need.