Plenty of books offer useful advice on how to get better at making quick-thinking, intuitive choices. But what about more consequential decisions, the ones that affect our lives for years, or centuries, to come? Our most powerful stories revolve around these kinds of decisions: where to live, whom to marry, what to believe, whether to start a company, how to end a war. Full of the beautifully crafted storytelling and novel insights that Steven Johnson's fans know to expect, Farsighted draws lessons from cognitive science, social psychology, military strategy, environmental planning, and great works of literature. Everyone thinks we are living in an age of short attention spans, but we've actually learned a lot about making long-term decisions over the past few decades. Johnson makes a compelling case for a smarter and more deliberative decision-making approach. He argues that we choose better when we break out of the myopia of single-scale thinking and develop methods for considering all the factors involved. There's no one-size-fits-all model for the important decisions that can alter the course of a life, an organization, or a civilization. But Farsighted explains how we can approach these choices more effectively, and how we can appreciate the subtle intelligence of choices that shaped our broader social history.

For the public sector, which is globally the largest employer of people and repository of information, managing information and knowledge is an extremely problematic area to address. The essence of both resources is that they are intangible, their impact and value cannot be measured through traditional accounting methods, yet they are also, paradoxically, where the greatest value and potential for improvement is located. In this book Eileen Milner introduces the reader to the concepts of information and knowledge and explores a variety of tools and techniques which may be usefully adopted in actively managing and developing these resources. Wherever possible real-life public sector case studies and examples are used to illustrate good practice, as well as some of the pitfalls of poor application. Down-to-earth and taking into account the critically important characteristics unique to public services, this will be an illuminating text both for managers and policy makers already working in the public sector and for those considering doing so.

A Guide For Managers Of Team-Based Organizations

One of few books to address the management issues of team-based companies, this work shows how to build an organizational infrastructure conducive to superior team performance. The work dispenses with the usual one-model-fits-all approach to identify six distinct types of teams?production, service, management, project, action, and advisory?and explain in detail how to design, implement, and manage the unique systems, policies, and practices that support each. The contributors?all leading consultants and researchers?draw from important case studies to present the best management practices of team-based organizations. Covers every nuance from management structuring to team staffing to information systems. Even shows how to create a physical facility that's right for teams.

This book examines the need for information in support of decision-making in environmental health. It discusses indicators of environmental health, methods of data collection and the assessment of exposure to and the health impact of different environmental risk factors. It also discusses approaches to linkage analysis of grouped environmental and health data, including statistical and epidemiological issues and geographical infomation systems.
The book will be an invaluable source of information for researchers in public health, epidemiology and social science, as well as for environmental health data as part of local or national information systems.

Author Biography:
Eileen Milner is a Principal Lecturer in Information Management at the University of North London

This fascinating and controversial text makes sense of the complexities of research in the workplace and how 'working' knowledge is constructed. Featuring experts from Britain, Japan, North America and Australia, it is an outstanding contribution to the literature of Human Resource Management (HRM). It's interdisciplinary approach addresses key issues and debates such as:
* the influences of new technology, language, power, culture and gender upon the 'construction' of knowledge
* the impact of globalization
* working knowledge into the 21st century
* practice and performance implications.
It's outlook, geared towards the 21st century, makes it essential reading for researchers, teachers and students within HRM, policy-makers and all those concerned with professional development.

Just making a decision can be hard enough, but how do you begin to judge whether it's the right one? Chip and Dan Heath, authors of #1 New York Times best-seller Switch, show you how to overcome your brain's natural shortcomings. In Decisive, Chip and Dan Heath draw on decades of psychological research to explain why we so often get it very badly wrong - why our supposedly rational brains are frequently tripped up by powerful biases and wishful thinking. At the same time they demonstrate how relatively easy it is to avoid the pitfalls and find the best answers, offering four simple principles that we can all learn and follow. In the process, they show why it is that experts frequently make mistakes. They demonstrate the perils of getting trapped in a narrow decision frame. And they explore people's tendency to be over-confident about how their choices will unfold. Drawing on case studies as diverse as the downfall of Kodak and the inspiring account of a cancer survivor, they offer both a fascinating tour through the workings of our minds and an invaluable guide to making smarter decisions. Winner in the Practical Manager category of the CMI Management Book of the Year awards 2014.

A book on practical business forecasting belongs in the library of everyone interested in business. Forecasting is extremely important to finance and accounting executives, business economists and managers at all levels.
Strategic Business Forecasting: The Complete Guide to Forecasting Real World Company Performance provides you with a working knowledge of the fundamentals of business forecasting that can be applied in the real world regardless of the size of the firm. The author explains the basic forecasting methodology and the practical applications. All aspects of business are discussed, making this a comprehensive and valuable reference.
The author avoids theoretical and mathematical discussions to gets right into how, when , and why to use this book. Many practical examples, applications, illustrations, guidelines, measures, checklists, rules of thumb, tips, graphs, diagrams and tables aid your comprehension of the subject. The author displays and explains printouts obtained using many popular spreadsheet programs and software packages.
The book goes far beyond just sales forecasting, encompassing a wide range of topics of major importance to practical business managers and finance professionals, including cash flow forecasting, cost prediction, earnings forecasts, bankruptcy prediction, foreign exchange forecasting, and interest rate forecasting. Written in an easy-to-read style, it is practical, current, and intriguing - a reference book to use throughout your business career.

Written for those interested in the topic of "shared knowledge" in organizations, this edited volume brings together a variety of themes and perspectives that emerge when multidisciplinary scholars examine this important subject. The papers were presented at a conference designed to bring together behavioral scientists who were interested in the creation, conversation, distribution, and protection of knowledge in organizations.
The editors bring together a distinguished group of social psychologists who have made important contributions to social cognition and group processes. They cast a wide net in terms of the topics covered and challenged the authors to think about how their research applies to the management or mismanagement of knowledge in organizations. The volume is divided into three sections: knowledge systems, emotional-motivational systems, and communication and behavioral systems. A final conclusion chapter discusses and integrates the various contributions.

An incredible ability awaits managers who practice Theory of Constraints (TOC) techniques: they can take a problem, look beyond the less important details, and directly identify the source of trouble. They've been known to promptly resolve perplexing matters - while the uninformed remain stuck.
So many more managers could gain the benefit of TOC thinking... if they only took the time. Eli Schragenheim now offers an informative and enjoyable self-learning method, proving how TOC can be invaluable at a wide variety of workplaces.
Management Dilemmas: The Theory of Constraints Approach to Problem Identification and Solutions conveys TOC methods through "virtual experience"-stories of managers and the situations they need to resolve. Take note of the dilemmas they're facing. Think about how you would respond under those circumstances. Then, compare your reactions with Schragenheim's TOC-influenced analysis.
Associated with Dr. Eli Goldratt (the founder of TOC) for seven years, Schragenheim doesn't tell how the stories end. Instead, he encourages the reader to try out TOC techniques-especially the need to arrive at the most precise answer by raising the right questions. The conclusions you reach today could greatly help your on-the-job thinking tomorrow!

Written for those interested in the topic of "shared knowledge" in organizations, this edited volume brings together a variety of themes and perspectives that emerge when multidisciplinary scholars examine this important subject. The papers were presented at a conference designed to bring together behavioral scientists who were interested in the creation, conversation, distribution, and protection of knowledge in organizations.
The editors bring together a distinguished group of social psychologists who have made important contributions to social cognition and group processes. They cast a wide net in terms of the topics covered and challenged the authors to think about how their research applies to the management or mismanagement of knowledge in organizations. The volume is divided into three sections: knowledge systems, emotional-motivational systems, and communication and behavioral systems. A final conclusion chapter discusses and integrates the various contributions.

Prepare for your SIAM(TM) Foundation exam and understand how SIAM can benefit your organization!SIAM (service integration and management) is an evolution of how to apply a framework for integrated service management across multiple service providers. It has developed as organizations have moved away from outsourced contracts with a single supplier to an environment with multiple service providers. SIAM supports cross-functional, cross-process and cross-provider integration. It creates an environment where all parties: Know their role, responsibilities and context in the ecosystem Are empowered to deliver Are held accountable for the outcomes they are required to deliver Service Integration and Management (SIAM(TM)) Foundation Body of Knowledge (BoK), Second edition has been updated to reflect changes to the market and is the official guide for the EXIN SIAM(TM) Foundation certification. This book will help candidates pass their Foundation certification, as well as serve as a useful reference guide once they are implementing SIAM practices. Suitable for anyone working in ITSM (IT service management), IT, service integration and project management, the book introduces the EXIN SIAM(TM) Foundation syllabus and provides essential reading for the Foundation exam. It also offers a detailed introduction to the SIAM methodology for those who do not want to undertake formal certification.

The Psychology of Decision Making provides an overview of decision making as it relates to management, organizational behavior issues, and research. This engaging book examines the way individuals make decisions as well as how they form judgments privately and in the context of the organization. It also discusses the interplay of group and institutional dynamics and their effects upon the decisions made within and on the behalf of organizations. Researchers and advanced students in the field of organization science, social, and industrial psychology who want a better understanding of how the field has developed as a scholarly discipline and of the processes involved in decision making will find this an excellent resource. The Second Edition has been entirely revised and updated to reflect recent research and changing perspectives with the help of new co-author Terry Connolly, Finova Professor of Management and Policy at the University of Arizona. New to the Second Edition are: Latest developments in the field building on Prospect Theory Current research on Behavioral Theory Innovative suggestions by research scholars on subjects for new theoretical models

This is the first knowledge book in the Resources for the Knowledge-Based Economy Readers' series to link the two hot topics of knowledge and strategy. The book centers around the concept of treating organizational knowledge as a valuable strategy asset. Knowledge strategy is a natural extension of the historical development of business strategy in general. The book includes seminal articles on the subject as well as an introduction written by Michael Zack.

Links together knowledge and strategy
Seminal articles

Including contributions from leading experts in the field, this book covers applications and developments of heuristic search methods for solving complex optimization problems. The book covers various local search strategies including genetic algorithms, simulated annealing, tabu search and hybrids thereof. These methods have proved extraordinarily successful by solving some of the most difficult, real-world problems. At the interface between Artificial Intelligence and Operational Research, research in this exciting area is progressing apace spurred on by the needs of industry and commerce. The introductory chapter provides a clear overview of the basic techniques and useful pointers to further reading and to current research. The second section of the book covers some of the most recent and exciting developments of the basic techniques, with suggestions not only for extending and improving these but also for hybridizing and incorporating automatic adaption. The third section contains a number of case studies, surveys and comparative studies which span a wide range of application areas ranging from the classic Steiner tree problem to more practical problems arising in telecommunications and data analysis. The coverage of the latest research and the illustrative case studies will ensure that the book is invaluable for researchers and professionals with an interest in heuristic search methods.

Decision making plays a major role in virtually every theory of organizational behavior. However, decision theory has not provided organizational theorists with useful descriptions of how decisions are made, either by individuals or by individuals in organizations. The earliest offering came from economics in the form of the "normative" rational view of decision making. The underlying presumption was that decision makers are all striving to maximize return or minimize loss, that decisions are based upon unlimited information, and that they have the capacity to use the information efficiently. They know the options open to them and the consequences of pursuing one or another of those options. The optimal course of action is revealed by applying the appropriate analysis and choosing the most profitable option. The key concepts are rationality, analysis, orderliness, and maximization, and even a moment's thought demonstrates the gap between these concepts and real-life experience. From the viewpoint of organizational theory, the primary problem with the normative view of decision making, and by analogy with much behavioral decision research, is its reliance on the "gamble metaphor." That is, decisions are characterized as gambles in an effort to capture the inherent risk. This metaphor has the advantage of simplicity, but it is a flawed simplicity.
This book is about a different kind of behavioral theory -- image theory. It is a psychological theory of decision making that abandons the gamble metaphor and the normative logic that the metaphor supports. Instead it sees decision making as guided by the beliefs and values that the decision maker, or a community of decision makers, holds to be relevant to the decision at hand. These beliefs and values dictate the goals of the decision. The point is to craft a course of action that will achieve these goals without interfering with the pursuit of other goals. The book begins with an overview of image theory that outlines the basic concepts of the theory and a little of its history. The next two parts correspond to the theory's two decision mechanisms, the compatibility test and the profitability test. The final section contains extensions and developments of the theory as well as cognate ideas that have their basis in the theory. This book's purpose is to provide -- in one place -- the theoretical and empirical work that has been done up to now and to suggest directions for future work.

The approach known as Diversity Management, is about managing the increasing diversity of issues that confront us. It is a response to the ever growing number of approaches - more models, more methodologies and more theories - developed to tackle those issues. Diversity Management addresses this new issue to be confronted - how to choose between the models, methodologies and theories. The book, Diversity Management: Triple Loop Learning, will provide a strong intellectual contribution to the now widely debated issue of managing diversity. It carefully blends theory and practice in order to provide substance to the debate on diversity management in the social and systems sciences. The focus on triple loop learning increases the fullness of learning about the diversity of issues and dilemmas faced. It brings together three main learning centres in one overall awareness so that the process is more reflexive and those involved can operate more intelligently and responsibly. Diversity Management: Triple Loop Learning is thoroughly illustrated with case studies and shows theoreticians and interventionists how they can operate with a consciousness that is more than the sum of its parts.

In recent years, there has been increasing implementation of group and team decision-making within organizations, much of it managed electronically, between members of what are "virtual" groups or teams. Recent research into effective team implementation emphasizes "trust" as an intermediary process, and trust must be a part of any account of team decision-making. This book provides an integrated framework that represents process in decision-making by interactive groups and teams. This framework furthers both our understanding of process and our capabilities in implementation, based on an account of group decision-making that differentiates the information types contributing to decision quality and relates them to process in interactive groups and teams. Author Steve Silver emphasizes the social structure that is inherent in the interaction of decision-makers as group or team members and effects on the information they exchange.

This book covers a large spectrum of cutting-edge game theory applications in management science in which Professor Georges Zaccour has made significant contributions. The book consists of 21 chapters and highlights the latest treatments of game theory in various areas, including marketing, supply chains, energy and environmental management, and cyber defense. With this book, former Ph.D. students and successful research collaborators of Professor Zaccour wish to honor his many scientific achievements.

From two pioneers in business analytics, an update of the classic book on how analytics and business intelligence are transforming competition and how leading organizations build and compete on an analytical capability.The first book to describe how analytics are changing the business landscape, updated with new information on predictive analytics, AI, and automation.Describes the specific attributes of firms that are analytical competitors and how they use business intelligence and analytics to make better decisions, execute more effectively, and optimize businesses processes.Lays out a five-stage model for becoming an analytical competitor and developing analytical capabilities.Show how companies are applying analytics across the enterprise: from finance and HR, to R&D and manufacturing.Shows how analytics transform relationships between customers and suppliers.Presents the key steps and capabilities for becoming an analytical competitor.Audience:Managers in all functional areas in organizations of all kinds (not strictly IT).Senior leaders who want to build an analytic capability in their organization and drive an enterprise-wide approach to analytics.Consultants.Vendors of analytical solutions and services.

If you aren't using the term "naturalistic decision making, " or NDM, you soon will be. Even as a very young field, NDM has already had far-reaching applications in areas as diverse as management, aviation, health care, nuclear power, military command and control, corporate teamwork, and manufacturing.
Put simply, NDM is the way people use their experience to make decisions in the context of a job or task. Of particular interest to NDM researchers are the effects of high-stake consequences, shifting goals, incomplete information, time pressure, uncertainty, and other conditions that are present in most of today's work places and that add to the complexity of decision making. Applications of NDM research findings target decision aids and training that help people in their decision-making processes.
This book reports the findings of top NDM researchers, as well as many of their current applications. In addition, the book offers a historical perspective on the emergence of this new paradigm, describes recent theoretical and methodological advancements, and points to future developments. It was written for people interested in decision making research and applications relative to a diverse array of work settings and products such as human-computer interfaces, decision support systems, individual and team training, product designs, and organizational development and planning.

Managerial Decision Making is an essential and insightful title that brings together classic articles on the subject of behavioral decision research. Professor Don Moore has selected the seminal articles that are the cornerstone of a discipline that has exploded in both productivity and influence. It covers Herbert Simon's groundbreaking work on bounded rationality, as well as important papers on anchoring, the bias of framing, the problem of overconfidence, the preference for fairness, emotional influences and the strengths and weaknesses of human intuitive judgement. This research review will appeal to a wide readership as decision research plays an important role in such diverse areas as business, marketing, law, finance, medicine and public policy.

The challenges faced by 21st-century businesses, organizations and governments are characterized as being fundamentally different in nature, scope and levels of impact from those of the past. As problems become increasingly complex and wicked, conventional reductive approaches and data-based solutions are limited. The authors argue that practical wisdom is required. This book provides an integral and practical model for incorporating wisdom into management decision making. Based on a cross-disciplinary conceptualization of practical wisdom, the authors distinguish systematically between data, information, knowledge, and wisdom-based decision making. While they suggest that data, analytics, information and knowledge can assist decision-makers to better deal with complex and wicked problems, they argue that data-based systems cannot replace optimized human decision-making capabilities. These capabilities, the authors explain, include a range of qualities and characteristics inherent in philosophical, psychological and organizational conceptions of practical wisdom. Accordingly, in this book, the authors introduce a model that identifies the specific qualities and processes involved in making wise decisions, especially in management. The model is based on the empirical fi ndings of the authors' studies in the areas of wisdom and management. This book is a practical resource for professionals, practitioners, and consultants in both the private and public sectors. The theoretical discussions, critical arguments, and practical guidelines provided in the book will be extremely valuable to students at the undergraduate and postgraduate levels, as well as upper-level postdoctoral researchers looking at business management strategies.

Young children start school already able to do a surprising amount of mathematics. This book examines the nature and origin of subject knowledge and is based on information gathered from observing the interactions between teachers and their first-year pupils. It demonstrates the necessity of the classroom teacher to draw on many kinds of knowledge in order to deal with various issues surrounding classroom learning and teaching. Two important core areas are knowledge of lesson structure and of subject matter; this book address the area of subject matter and, as such, it should be of interest to classroom teachers and lecturers in education.