Energy Risk Modeling is a primer on statistical methods for managers, students and anybody interested in the field. Illustrated through elementary and more advanced statistical Methods, it is primarily aimed at those individuals who need a gentle introduction in how to go about using statistical methods for modeling energy price risk. Statistical ideas are presented by outlining the necessary concepts and illustrating how these ideas can be implemented. This is the first energy risk book on the market to focus specifically on the role of statistical methods. Its practical approach makes the book a very useful reference and an interesting read.

This book undertakes to marry the concepts of "Concept Mapping" with a "Design Thinking" approach in the context of business analysis. While in the past a lot of attention has been paid to the business process side, this book now focusses information quality and valuation, master data and hierarchy management, business rules automation and business semantics as examples for business innovation opportunities. The book shows how to take "Business Concept Maps" further as information models for new IT paradigms. In a way this books redefines and extends business analysis towards solutions that can be described as business synthesis or business development. Business modellers, analysts and controllers, as well as enterprise information architects, will benefit from the intuitive modelling and designing approach presented in this book.Thepragmatic and agile methodspresented can be directly applied to improve the wayorganizations manage their business concepts and their relationships.

"This book is a great contribution to the information management community. It combines a theoretical foundation with practical methods for dealing with important problems. This is rare and very useful. Conceptual models that communicate business reality effectively require some degree of creative imagination. As such, they combine the results of business analysis with communication design, as is extensively covered in this book."

Dr. Malcolm Chisholm, President at AskGet.com Inc.

Truly understanding business requirements has always been a major stumbling block in business intelligence (BI) projects. In this book, Thomas Frisendal introduces a powerful technique business concept mapping that creates a virtual mind-meld between business users and business analysts. Frisendal does a wonderful explaining and demonstrating how this tool can improve the outcome of BI and other development projects ."

Wayne Eckerson, executive director, BI Leadership Forum

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This is the first book to provide a comprehensive and systematic introduction to the ranking methods for interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets, multi-criteria decision-making methods with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets, and group decision-making methods with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations. Including numerous application examples and illustrations with tables and figures and presenting the authors' latest research developments, it is a valuable resource for researchers and professionals in the fields of fuzzy mathematics, operations research, information science, management science and decision analysis.

Operational risk is one of the oldest risks in the banking sector, and yet regulatory bodies including the Basle Committee are still working on a regulatory framework. Damage control measures introduced by banks have often proved ineffective. The successful management of operational risk will be a significant competitive advantage for banks in the future. This book is a practical guide to achieving control of operational risk. Using qualitative analysis, the author suggests risk identification procedures and provides tools for the analysis, quantification, and management of risk. He goes on to discuss future developments in both the regulatory and insurance sectors, including the most recent Basle Committee proposals.

A guide to the essential skills of project management, enabling you to bring in projects on time and within budget. Juggling all the tasks and resources you need to make a project run smoothly can seem like an onerous task - from engaging with stakeholders and scoping out the full specification of the project, through to keeping a rein on costs and sticking to schedules. Manage Projects Successfully offers calm and practical advice to help you with setting priorities, communicating with others, monitoring progress and dealing with unexpected events. Practical, easy to read and jargon-free, the book contains a quiz to assess strengths and weaknesses, step-by-step guidance and action points, top tips to bear in mind for the future, common mistakes and advice on how to avoid them, and summaries of key points.

Macroeconomic turbulence and volatility in financial markets can fatally affect firm's performance. Very few firms make serious attempts to inform market participants and other outsider stakeholders about the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations--manifested as changes in exchange rates, interest rates, inflation rates and stock market returns-- on performance. These stakeholders, as well as financial analysts, must make their own assessments but they generally lack both the required tools and the information to do so. Worse, top management in most firms do not themselves possess the tools to identify whether a change in performance represents a change in the firm's intrinsic competitiveness or a reflection of macroeconomic conditions outside their influence.
Corporate Decision-Making with Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Performance and Risk Management develops and presents in an easily comprehensible way the essential elements of a corporate strategy for managing uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. This Macroeconomic Uncertainty Strategy, or MUST, enhances firm value by allowing management and external stakeholders to become better informed about the development of corporate competitiveness in a turbulent macroeconomic environment. The MUST also provides guidelines for how to develop a successful risk management program.
This research based book includes methods to identify the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on cash flows and value, to develop strategies for macroeconomic risk management, to provide informative reports to external stakeholders, to evaluate the relative performance of subsidiaries and business units in multinational companies, and to evaluateperformance for purposes of setting executive compensation and of fulfilling the due diligence requirements in an M & A context. The authors' use of value-based management, various performance measurements, the concept of real options, and risk management from the perspective of shareholder wealth maximization, makes the book rich and compelling. They address researchers and students in the field of international business, finance and corporate governance. On the business side, executives with strategic responsibilities, chief financial officers, and bankers who analyze corporate performance and give advice on risk management will benefit from reading this book.

This laboratory manual is intended for business analysts who wish to increase their skills in the use of statistical analysis to support business decisions. Most of the case studies use Excel,today's most common analysis tool. They range from the most basic descriptive analytical techniques to more advanced techniques such as linear regression and forecasting. Advanced projects cover inferential statistics for continuous variables (t-Test) and categorical variables (chi-square), as well as A/B testing. The manual ends with techniques to deal with the analysis of text data and tools to manage the analysis of large data sets (Big Data) using Excel. Includes companion files with solution spreadsheets, sample files, data sets, etc. from the book. Features: Teaches the statistical analysis skills needed to support business decisions Provides projects ranging from the most basic descriptive analytical techniques to more advanced techniques such as linear regression, forecasting, inferential statistics, and analyzing big data sets Includes companion files with solution spreadsheets, sample files, data sets, etc. used in the book's case studies

This book, originally published in 1996, develops a model of information gathering for small businesses. Whilst all small business owners gather and process some information, the quality and types of information gathered is limited. Size and resource constraints force small business owners to make difficult decisions related to the research that they conduct. The model developed in this book is tested in part through a study of the information gathering practices of small owners/managers in the landscaping industry in Wisconsin, USA.

This book provides a practice-driven, yet rigorous approach to executive management decision-making that performs well even under unpredictable conditions. It explains how executives can employ prescribed engineering design methods to arrive at robust outcomes even when faced with uncontrollable uncertainty. The book presents the paradigm and its main principles in Part I; in Part II it illustrates how to frame a decision situation and how to design the decision so that it will produce its intended behavior. In turn, Part III discusses in detail in situ case studies on executive management decisions. Lastly, Part IV summarizes the book and formulates the key lessons learned.

A new pragmatic approach, based on the latest developments in argumentation theory, analyzing appeal to expert opinion as a form of argument.

Reliance on authority has always been a common recourse in argumentation, perhaps never more so than today in our highly technological society when knowledge has become so specialized--as manifested, for instance, in the frequent appearance of "expert witnesses" in courtrooms. When is an appeal to the opinion of an expert a reasonable type of argument to make, and when does it become a fallacy? This book provides a method for the evaluation of these appeals in everyday argumentation.

Specialized domains of knowledge such as science, medicine, law, and government policy have gradually taken over as the basis on which many of our rational decisions are made daily. Consequently, appeal to expert opinion in these areas has become a powerful type of argument. Challenging an argument based on expert scientific opinion, for example, has become as difficult as it once was to question religious authority.

Walton stresses that even in cases where expert opinion is divided, the effect of it can still be so powerful that it overwhelms an individual's ability to make a decision based on personal deliberation of what is right or wrong in a given situation. The book identifies the requirements that make an appeal to expert opinion a reasonable or unreasonable argument. Walton's new pragmatic approach analyzes that appeal as a distinctive form of argument, with an accompanying set of appropriate critical questions matching the form. Throughout the book, a historical survey of the key developments in the evolution of the argument from authority, dating from the time of the ancients, is given, and new light is shed on current problems of "junk science" and battles between experts in legal argumentation.

This book presents different techniques and methodologies that used to help improve the decision-making process and increase the likelihood of success in sector as follows: agriculture, financial services, logistics, energy services, health and others. This book collects and consolidates innovative and high-quality research contributions regarding the implementation techniques and methodologies applied in different industrial sectors. The scope is to disseminate current trends knowledge in the implementation of artificial intelligence techniques and methodologies in different fields as follows: supply chain, business intelligence, e-commerce, social media and others. The book contents are useful for Ph.D., Ph.D. students, master and undergraduate students, and professional and students in industrial engineering, computer science, information systems, data analytics and others.

When you start a new managerial role, there is an inevitable contrast between what you believed you would find and what you're actually faced with. And Now What? helps you manage this gap between expectation and reality, ensuring that you get off to the best possible start in your new job. This book is structured in two parts, and it begins by offering readers a panoramic perspective of what a 'landing' entails in terms of personal self-leadership and managing people and uncertainty. The first part of the book reviews the process of taking charge in your new role, from preparation through to implementation. The second part presents a range of case studies arranged in order of increasing professional responsibility, allowing the reader to take a trip from the first stages of a professional leader's life to the highest responsibilities of a chairperson's role - experiencing changes, promotions, exits, internationalizations and take-offs along the way. The most important thing for a leader is not to discover how to motivate, but to better understand their reasons for motivating others. In this way, you can think of the leadership journey as both a personal and a professional adventure.

Political speeches don't just mirror what transpires in the world; they have the potential to change people's minds, move them into action, reinforce existing assumptions, and reshape cultures. They define public participation and are the 'nexus points' of disparate discourses, both nationally and globally. Because of their power to sustain the status quo or effect change, speeches warrant public attention and careful study. To examine them is to understand how they are crafted, what elements they possess, and how these elements come together to affect their audience. This volume analyzes selected speeches delivered by Benigno 'Noynoy' Simeon C. Aquino III, President of the Republic of the Philippines from 2010 to 2016. They are speeches that have been used to shape public perception, gain support, and build identification between Aquino's presidency and his audience. By mobilizing the concepts of presidential image, myth, metaphors, and rhetorical citizenship, readers are guided through a process of examining the rhetorical trajectory of the Philippine presidency, how a president's discourse has attempted to shape Philippine socio-political reality, and how the evolving milieu the president has found himself in shapes his discourse. The essays in this volume will hopefully generate a discussion not only on the place of President Benigno Aquino's rhetoric in Philippine presidential history, but also of how rhetorical practices in an evolving democratic society in Asia can extend and expand theorizations of presidential rhetoric and political communication at large.

This volume examines different aspects of management consulting in an innovative and comprehensive way. The chapters are based on original research and cover a wide range of countries (e.g. Sweden, the Netherlands, Finland, Italy, Germany, Australia, and Norway), consulting firms, and client organizations. They show how the consulting industry managed to reach the importance it has today; how consultancies and management gurus develop new ideas and/or repackage old ones; and how consultants find or retain clients and interact with them in a given project.

Risk communication: the evolution of attempts Risk communication is at once a very new and a very old field of interest. Risk analysis, as Krimsky and Plough (1988:2) point out, dates back at least to the Babylonians in 3200 BC. Cultures have traditionally utilized a host of mecha nisms for anticipating, responding to, and communicating about hazards - as in food avoidance, taboos, stigma of persons and places, myths, migration, etc. Throughout history, trade between places has necessitated labelling of containers to indicate their contents. Seals at sites of the ninth century BC Harappan civilization of South Asia record the owner and/or contents of the containers (Hadden, 1986:3). The Pure Food and Drug Act, the first labelling law with national scope in the United States, was passed in 1906. Common law covering the workplace in a number of countries has traditionally required that employers notify workers about significant dangers that they encounter on the job, an obligation formally extended to chronic hazards in the OSHA's Hazard Communication regulation of 1983 in the United States. In this sense, risk communication is probably the oldest way of risk manage ment. However, it is only until recently that risk communication has attracted the attention of regulators as an explicit alternative to the by now more common and formal approaches of standard setting, insuring etc. (Baram, 1982)."

The long-awaited follow-up to the international bestsellers, Business Model Generation and Value Proposition Design Alex Osterwalder and Yves Pigneurs' Business Model Canvas changed the way the world creates and plans new business models. It has been used by corporations and startups and consultants around the world and is taught in hundreds of universities. After years of researching how the world's best companies develop, test, and scale new business models, the authors have produced their definitive work. The Invincible Company explains what every organization can learn from the business models of the world's most exciting companies. The book explains how companies such as Amazon, IKEA, Airbnb, Microsoft, and Logitech, have been able to create immensely successful businesses and disrupt entire industries. At the core of these successes are not just great products and services, but profitable, innovative business models--and the ability to improve existing business models while consistently launching new ones. The Invincible Company presents practical new tools for measuring, managing, and accelerating innovation, and strategies for reducing risk when launching new business models. Serving as a blueprint for your growth strategy, The Invincible Company explains how to constantly stay ahead of your competition. In-depth chapters explain how to create new growth engines, change how products and services are created and delivered, extract maximum profit from each type of business model, and much more. New tools--such as the Business Model Portfolio Map, Innovation Metrics, Innovation Strategy Framework, and the Culture Map--enable readers to understand how to design invincible companies. The Invincible Company: Helps large and small companies build their growth strategy and manage their core simultaneously Explains the world's best modern and historic business models Provides tools to assess your business model, innovation readiness, and all of your innovation projects Presented in striking 4-color, and packed with practical visuals and tools, The Invincible Company is a must-have book for business leaders, entrepreneurs, and innovation professionals.

This second edition - completely up to date with new exercises - provides a comprehensive and self-contained treatment of the probabilistic theory behind the risk-neutral valuation principle and its application to the pricing and hedging of financial derivatives. On the probabilistic side, both discrete- and continuous-time stochastic processes are treated, with special emphasis on martingale theory, stochastic integration and change-of-measure techniques. Based on firm probabilistic foundations, general properties of discrete- and continuous-time financial market models are discussed.

Risk management is a decision-making process which considers political, social, economic and engineering factors with relevant risk assessments relating to a potential hazard in order to develop, analyse and compare options to facilitate the selection of the optimal regulatory response for safety from that hazard. Rapid technological developments, organisational changes and increased demand for efficiency have all influenced the vulnerability of our society. As a result, safety and risk management is becoming an increasingly important field.

Risk Management with Applications from the Offshore Petroleum Industry presents an in-depth discussion of some fundamental principles of risk management, related to the use of expected values, uncertainty handling and risk acceptance criteria. A decision framework for risk management is developed that provides a structure for the classification of risk decision problems and a procedure for the execution of the related decision-making processes. Several examples from the offshore petroleum industry are included to illustrate the use of the framework, but it can also be applied in other areas.

With the inclusion of a risk management framework designed to achieve better decisions and therefore more desirable outcomes, Risk Management with Applications from the Offshore Petroleum Industry is a valuable resource for practitioners in the industry, engineering managers and regulatory authorities. Graduate students and researchers in risk management will find this book a comprehensive reference.

We need a new approach for solving tough problems in a complex world-we need to collaborate smarter. Market volatility. Sustainability demands. Hybrid working. Opportunities and hazards of fast-changing technology and regulations. Companies and nonprofits face more daunting challenges than ever. How can we collaborate in our organizations-and with outside partners-to solve problems, innovate, and succeed? Smarter Collaboration offers groundbreaking solutions. This indispensable new book lays out a pragmatic action plan blending rich stories, new empirical research, and loads of practical advice to help companies thrive by collaborating more effectively. As Harvard professor Heidi K. Gardner and senior executive Ivan A. Matviak show, firms that collaborate smarter consistently generate higher revenues and profits, boost innovation, strengthen client relationships, and attract and retain better talent. In this successor to Gardner's bestselling first book, Smart Collaboration, the authors expand their mandate, illustrating the fundamental dynamics of collaborating well across industries like financial services, health care, biotech/pharma, consumer products, automotive, and technology. Based on their research with thousands of executives from around the world, they share deep insights on how to implement smarter collaboration and avoid the potential pitfalls. They also help leaders troubleshoot thorny challenges like misaligned incentives, collaboration overload, and unintended consequences on diversity and inclusion. Complete with how-tos and cases, the book concludes with inspiring examples of groups harnessing smarter collaboration to tackle society's biggest challenges such as saving the oceans, eradicating diseases, and tackling global warming. Smarter Collaboration is the essential guide for forward-thinking leaders to transform their organizations, reshape the way they work, and increase impact and success.

Flawed Advice and the Management Trap: How Managers Can Know When They're Getting Good Advice and When They're Not is the first book to show how and why so much of today's business advice is flawed, and how managers and executives can better evaluate advice given to their firms
Practitioners and scholars agree that businesses in the coming millennium will be managed differently than firms of the 20th century. And getting there from here, according to today's best advice, will require creative change. In this pioneering work, Argyris, one of the world's leading organizational thinkers, reviews a wide array of business advice from the best and brightest thinkers and consultants and concludes that as appealing as their ideas may be, most of them are simply not workable. They are too full of abstract claims, logical gaps, and inconsistencies, to be useful. And ironically, even when their recommendations are implemented correctly, the result is often failure. Why do these gaps in logic exist, and how can they be more effectively discovered? Applying a disciplined critique to numerous representative examples of advice about leadership, learning, change, and employee commitment, Argyris shows readers how to be more critical of the advice they are given, how to learn new approaches for appraising employee performance, and how to generate an internal commitment to values and better strategy.
In our ever expanding global market, innovative business advice is at a premium, and giving this advice has become a lucrative industry in and of itself. This book provides the critical lens necessary to evaluate which advice is best for your organization.

In just 10 minutes a day, Coaching on the Go gives you the tools to be an effective leader. As a busy leader you know that coaching is an important tool for you to bring out the best in people in a most human and natural way. Coaching on the Go shows you how to coach your team in bite-sized chapters, so you can learn on the go - on a flight, on your commute to work - and put it into action right away. Split into two parts: 1. The Main Flight - learn the core coaching skills by following the story of the aircrew chapter by chapter. Each chapter covers a key coaching issue with activities to help you deal with similar situations in your leadership. 2. The Pilot's Manual - develop your expertise even further by taking a deeper dive into the skills of coaching. With advanced coaching models and leadership theory, you'll find extra activities and ideas to develop your coaching prowess with colleagues, team members and others around you. Great leaders coach. And with this book so can you. 'Great leaders coach. And with this book so can you.' Tim Pilkington, Chief Executive, World Vision UK 'In a fast-paced world, Coaching On-the-Go is structured to get to the heart of the matter quickly, making the content digestible and actionable.' Selina Millstam, VP, Global Head of Talent Management, Ericsson. 'Most coaching books tell you how to coach. This one shows you.' Paul Smith, bestselling author of Lead with a Story and The 10 Stories Great Leaders Tell 'A novel and useful way to think about coaching. Relevant to every leader.' Sheelagh Whitaker, Global NED and author of Evaline: A Feminist's Tale

An incredible ability awaits managers who practice Theory of Constraints (TOC) techniques: they can take a problem, look beyond the less important details, and directly identify the source of trouble. They've been known to promptly resolve perplexing matters - while the uninformed remain stuck. So many more managers could gain the benefit of TOC thinking... if they only took the time. Eli Schragenheim now offers an informative and enjoyable self-learning method, proving how TOC can be invaluable at a wide variety of workplaces. Management Dilemmas: The Theory of Constraints Approach to Problem Identification and Solutions conveys TOC methods through "virtual experience"-stories of managers and the situations they need to resolve. Take note of the dilemmas they're facing. Think about how you would respond under those circumstances. Then, compare your reactions with Schragenheim's TOC-influenced analysis. Associated with Dr. Eli Goldratt (the founder of TOC) for seven years, Schragenheim doesn't tell how the stories end. Instead, he encourages the reader to try out TOC techniques-especially the need to arrive at the most precise answer by raising the right questions. The conclusions you reach today could greatly help your on-the-job thinking tomorrow!

Under intense scrutiny for the last few decades, Multiple Objective Decision Making (MODM) has been useful for dealing with the multiple-criteria decisions and planning problems associated with many important applications in fields including management science, engineering design, and transportation. Rough set theory has also proved to be an effective mathematical tool to counter the vague description of objects in fields such as artificial intelligence, expert systems, civil engineering, medical data analysis, data mining, pattern recognition, and decision theory. Rough Multiple Objective Decision Making is perhaps the first book to combine state-of-the-art application of rough set theory, rough approximation techniques, and MODM. It illustrates traditional techniques-and some that employ simulation-based intelligent algorithms-to solve a wide range of realistic problems. Application of rough theory can remedy two types of uncertainty (randomness and fuzziness) which present significant drawbacks to existing decision-making methods, so the authors illustrate the use of rough sets to approximate the feasible set, and they explore use of rough intervals to demonstrate relative coefficients and parameters involved in bi-level MODM. The book reviews relevant literature and introduces models for both random and fuzzy rough MODM, applying proposed models and algorithms to problem solutions. Given the broad range of uses for decision making, the authors offer background and guidance for rough approximation to real-world problems, with case studies that focus on engineering applications, including construction site layout planning, water resource allocation, and resource-constrained project scheduling. The text presents a general framework of rough MODM, including basic theory, models, and algorithms, as well as a proposed methodological system and discussion of future research.

This book takes a fresh look at safety decision-making by documenting and examining stories told by front-line managers in three different high-hazard industries: a chemical plant, a nuclear power station and an air-navigation service provider. From Piper Alpha to Deepwater Horizon, accident analysis has stressed the importance of excellent decision-making by those in charge out in the field. Organizations rely critically on the judgement and experience of such senior operations personnel and yet these qualities are undervalued in a business environment that emphasises documentation and measurement. Whilst operational managers are guided by rules, they also draw on their own long experience and can formulate a situation-specific 'line in the sand' to apply the experience of the operating team to complex, real-world situations that rule writers may not have foreseen. This volume refocuses our attention on the people who make these important decisions and the organizational processes that support the best choices. Jan Hayes uses her multi-disciplinary experience to draw together an account of safety decision-making that is both technically robust and yet accessible to academics, practitioners and regulators alike. Readers will see that the stories retold in this book provide a way for operational managers to share their knowledge, experience and expertise - with each other and with us.

The effective management of knowledge assets is a key requirement for securing competitive advantage in the emerging information economy. Yet the nature of knowledge assets, however, remains poorly understood. In this new work, Max Boisot provides a conceptual framework for managers and students that will help them explore and understand how knowledge and information assets differ from physical assets, and how to deal with them at a strategic level within their organizations.