Meta-Heuristics: Advances and Trends in Local Search Paradigms for Optimizations comprises a carefully refereed selection of extended versions of the best papers presented at the Second Meta-Heuristics Conference (MIC 97). The selected articles describe the most recent developments in theory and applications of meta-heuristics, heuristics for specific problems, and comparative case studies. The book is divided into six parts, grouped mainly by the techniques considered. The extensive first part with twelve papers covers tabu search and its application to a great variety of well-known combinatorial optimization problems (including the resource-constrained project scheduling problem and vehicle routing problems). In the second part we find one paper where tabu search and simulated annealing are investigated comparatively and two papers which consider hybrid methods combining tabu search with genetic algorithms. The third part has four papers on genetic and evolutionary algorithms. Part four arrives at a new paradigm within meta-heuristics. The fifth part studies the behavior of parallel local search algorithms mainly from a tabu search perspective. The final part examines a great variety of additional meta-heuristics topics, including neural networks and variable neighbourhood search as well as guided local search. Furthermore, the integration of meta-heuristics with the branch-and-bound paradigm is investigated.

The effectiveness of policy decisions depends not only on the quality of the analysis but also on the communication between analyst and decision-maker. As a result, this book employs the following three-step decomposition of the decision modeling process throughout the book: (1) visual-structural modeling, (2) analytic-formal modeling, and (3) algorithmic resolution modeling. The 10 chapters address the most relevant issues in decision modeling in policy management: the problem-solving process, visual decision modeling, descriptive and normative preference elicitation and aggregation methods, dealing with uncertainty in dynamic problems, social choices, conflict resolution, and constraint-optimization problems. A problem-oriented engineering approach has been taken throughout the book because this approach covers the most popular decision modeling issues in: (1) decision analysis (decision trees, probabilistic influence diagrams, fuzzy decision-making, risk analysis), (2) operations research (facility location, scheduling, linear and non-linear programming, network optimization), and (3) economics (cost-benefit analysis, capital budgeting, shadow prices, marginal rate of substitution, net present value, game theory). Decision Modeling in Policy Management: Introduces a visual approach to decision modeling in policy management (over 100 figures and illustrations), integrating the European School (outranking relations, dimension reduction, ordinal preferences, rank correlation) and the American School (utility theory, analytic hierarchy process, game theory, constraint-optimization). Presents analytic approaches in the context of structural, formal, and resolution modeling; references tofurther practical and theoretical readings; intuitive visual reasoning; detailed numerical examples replacing theorems and formal proofs. Discusses new decision analytical features: visual interactive preference ordering; dynamic plots in virtual negotiation; hypermedia influence diagram modeling. Integrates 100 problems with worked-out solutions; an Internet syllabus with assignments, students comments, and Internet multimedia software are available.

The global medical and scientific communities need to standardize methodologies and agree on minimum criteria to permit inter-study comparisons. This book develops such standards, presenting a series of recommendations that represent the first codification of the manner in which studies should be executed.

Multiple Criteria Decision Making and its Applications to Economic Problems ties Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)/Multiple Objective Optimization (MO) and economics together. It describes how MCDM methods (goal programming) can be used in economics.

The volume consists of two parts. Part One of the book introduces the MCDM approaches. This first part, comprising Chapters 1-5, is basically an overview of MCDM methods that can most likely be used to address a wide range of economic problems. Readers looking for an in-depth discussion of multi-criteria analysis can grasp and become acquainted with the initial MCDM tools, language and definitions.

Part Two, which comprises Chapters 6-8, focuses on the theoretical core of the book. Thus in Chapter 6 an economic meaning is given to several key concepts on MCDM, such as ideal point, distance function, etc. It illustrates how Compromise Programming (CP) can support the standard premise of utility optimisation in economics as well as how it is capable of approximating the standard utility optimum when the decision-makers' preferences are incompletely specified. Chapter 7 deals entirely with production analysis. The main characteristic throughout the Chapter refers to a standard joint production scenario, analysed from the point of view of MCDM schemes. Chapter 8 focuses on the utility specification problem in the n-arguments space within a risk aversion context. A link between Arrows' risk aversion coefficient and CP utility permits this task.

The book is intended for postgraduate students and researchers in economics with an OR/MS orientation or in OR/MS with an economic orientation. In short, it attempts to fruitfully link economics and MCDM.

Problems with multiple objectives and criteria are generally known as multiple criteria optimization or multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. So far, these types of problems have typically been modelled and solved by means of linear programming. However, many real-life phenomena are of a nonlinear nature, which is why we need tools for nonlinear programming capable of handling several conflicting or incommensurable objectives. In this case, methods of traditional single objective optimization and linear programming are not enough; we need new ways of thinking, new concepts, and new methods - nonlinear multiobjective optimization. Nonlinear Multiobjective Optimization provides an extensive, up-to-date, self-contained and consistent survey, review of the literature and of the state of the art on nonlinear (deterministic) multiobjective optimization, its methods, its theory and its background. The amount of literature on multiobjective optimization is immense. The treatment in this book is based on approximately 1500 publications in English printed mainly after the year 1980. Problems related to real-life applications often contain irregularities and nonsmoothnesses. The treatment of nondifferentiable multiobjective optimization in the literature is rather rare. For this reason, this book contains material about the possibilities, background, theory and methods of nondifferentiable multiobjective optimization as well. This book is intended for both researchers and students in the areas of (applied) mathematics, engineering, economics, operations research and management science; it is meant for both professionals and practitioners in many different fields of application. The intention has been to provide a consistent summary that may help in selecting an appropriate method for the problem to be solved. It is hoped the extensive bibliography will be of value to researchers.

This volume contains a collection of papers presented at the 13th Interna- tional Conference on MUltiple Criteria Decision Making held in Cape Town during 6--10 January 1997. This was one of the regular conferences of the International Society on Multiple Criteria Decision Making, which are held at approximately two-yearly intervals. The 13th conference was attended by 143 delegates from 35 countries, and 123 papers were presented. Some of the papers which were presented are included in another volume published by Springer, namely the "festschrift" for Professor Stanley Zionts of Buffalo, New York, entitled Essays in Decision rnaJcing: A Volume in Honour of Stan- ley Zionts (edited by Mark H Karwan, Jaap Spronk and Jyrki Wallenius). The present volume provides a record of the technical part of the pro- ceedings of the conference. In reflecting back on January 1997, however, memories return of the social occasions, and the camaraderie which devel- oped amongst the MCDM community. Early January, at the height of the southern summer, is carnival time in Cape Town, and the mood is infectious, and was enhanced amongst those from the northern hemisphere (the major- ity of delegates) who overnight went from winter'chills (as low as -30 C) to over 30 C.

This book provides a new point of view on the subject of the management of uncertainty. It covers a wide variety of both theoretical and practical issues involving the analysis and management of uncertainty in the fields of finance, management and marketing. Audience: Researchers and professionals from operations research, management science and economics.

Taking advantage of the many specialists visiting Spain prior to the INFORMS Meeting in Barcelona, hold from July 14th to July 17th 1997, we organized a work shop on Decision Analysis Applications at the Real Academia de Ciencias, Madrid, Spain, from J uly 11th to 12th 1997, under the sponsorship of de the Instituto Espaiia. This workshop had a precedent in the International Conference Decision Making: Towards the 21st Century also held at the Real Academia de Ciencias in 1993. The idea of organizing an event, this time devoted to applications of Decision Analysis, was due to Prof. Sixto Rfos, who some four years ago, .sponsored and encouraged by the Royal Academy of Sciences, was the creator of an Interdisciplinary Working Group on Decision Analysis -formed with researchers from within and outside this Academy- which has been active since then, organizing periodical meetings, and whose last project has tumed out into this Workshop. The workshop turned out to be an stimulating opportunity for communicating and discussing the enormous variety of applications of Decision Sciences. In this volume we have included most of the invited papers and a selection of refereed contributed papers. Due to the varied nature of the applications, we have grouped them into five groups ending, as way of an epilog, with a paper by Sarin which contains important insights and reftections on the nature of Decision Analysis in public and private sectors."

Advanced communications and information technologies provide the basis for operational risk management. In order to support managers in real-time risk assessment and decision-making, the advanced technologies must be complemented by an appropriate reasoning logic. This book presents such a reasoning logic for operational risk management. Chapter 1 discusses the need for operational risk management and the feasibility of its use based upon advances in sensing, mobile communications, and satellite positioning technologies. Chapter II presents a reasoning logic for operational risk management that capitalizes upon these developments. Chapter III illustrates the integration of the reasoning logic in hypermedia, multimedia, and virtual reality systems, coupled with the capabilities provided by the Internet. Chapters IV-VI illustrate the realism of operational risk management for hazardous material transportation, emergency response, air raid command, and emergency response at a nuclear power generation facility. The book closes with an experimental assessment of the logic and associated decision aids in Chapter VII. Audience: Researchers, who will find the most recent advances in operational risk management with experimental assessments. Practitioners, who are provided with a detailed description of operational risk management and the latest advances in information and communications technologies to implement this new approach for managing risks in operational settings, such as transportation of hazardous materials and emergency response. Students, who will learn the basic concepts in theory and practice of building models for decision and risk analysis, and embedding them into commercial software as decision support systems.

All industrial countries have developed regulatory systems to assess and manage the risk of chemical substances to the working and natural environment. The pressure to harmonize these often specialized regulatory systems is increasingly strong at the international level. Such harmonization not only entails the assessment of particular chemicals, but also the way assessment procedures and their boundary with risk management is organized. As these initiatives intensify, they increasingly raise important questions of how to integrate national differences in the international regulatory arena. How will national consultation procedures relate to international decision-making on chemical risks? How will differences in national risk assessment procedures be accommodated? How will the international regulatory system be integrated with different national styles of regulation and government? Presenting the experiences and insights of both people from within the worlds of risk assessment and management and from the field of Science Studies, this book forms a state-of-the-art in the discussion on the Politics of Chemical Risk. By offering scenarios, or sketches of a regulatory future, it points to the choices that can be made and the opportunities to be explored. As such, it offers an agenda for environmental and occupational scientists, policy-makers and students of science and technology alike.

Public experience with risk communication differs greatly from country to country in Europe and there has been little opportunity for the transfer of experience and learning between countries. This is especially true for the many new European States, including the countries in transition from centralised to market economies. This book presents case studies on risk communication. One of its unifying concepts is the role of risk communication in the risk management process. Technical and philosophical introductions to risk communication and risk management and research in risk communication are given. The case studies themselves occupy the central portion of the book, each one covering a particular hazard, risk or situation seen from a particular point of view. The issue of the special circumstances for environmental and health risk communication in central and eastern Europe is also addressed through a separate presentation and discussion of an appropriate case study. A different approach to risk communication is taken by examining how it forms part of the risk management process at the local level. Research into risk perception, a field that forms an important foundation for many aspects of risk communication, is summarised and practical guidelines for risk communication are reviewed. These include discussions on how to carry out public information programmes and methods for increasing public involvement in risk management decisions.

Applied Stochastic Models and Control for Finance and Insurance presents at an introductory level some essential stochastic models applied in economics, finance and insurance. Markov chains, random walks, stochastic differential equations and other stochastic processes are used throughout the book and systematically applied to economic and financial applications. In addition, a dynamic programming framework is used to deal with some basic optimization problems. The book begins by introducing problems of economics, finance and insurance which involve time, uncertainty and risk. A number of cases are treated in detail, spanning risk management, volatility, memory, the time structure of preferences, interest rates and yields, etc. The second and third chapters provide an introduction to stochastic models and their application. Stochastic differential equations and stochastic calculus are presented in an intuitive manner, and numerous applications and exercises are used to facilitate their understanding and their use in Chapter 3. A number of other processes which are increasingly used in finance and insurance are introduced in Chapter 4. In the fifth chapter, ARCH and GARCH models are presented and their application to modeling volatility is emphasized. An outline of decision-making procedures is presented in Chapter 6. Furthermore, we also introduce the essentials of stochastic dynamic programming and control, and provide first steps for the student who seeks to apply these techniques. Finally, in Chapter 7, numerical techniques and approximations to stochastic processes are examined. This book can be used in business, economics, financial engineering and decision sciences schools for second year Master's students, as well as in a number of courses widely given in departments of statistics, systems and decision sciences.

Quantified Societal Risk and Policy Making is the result of an international workshop on societal risk organized by the Dutch Ministry for Transport, Public Works and Water Management with additional financial support from the Directorate for Transportation (DG VII) of the European Union. Managing risks, whether there is a strong man-made or natural component, basically means assessing alternative options under uncertainty. The possibility of multiple fatalities is one of the factors that can vary between options. This volume is concerned with one particular type of risk - the risk of death of a number of people in one accident - and with one particular tool - probabilistic risk analysis - as they are developing in various domains of society nowadays. Generally, this risk is labelled societal risk. This book shows how such comparisons are shaped at present in various hazard domains, such as: flood protection location and physical planning of industry transportation of chemicals, and prevention of aircraft accidents. It examines how to represent aggregate risks from major hazards in ways that can be handled by policy-makers. The purpose of the book is to increase the awareness of societal risk, disseminate available knowledge of existing approaches, and exchange information on applications from various domains. Quantified Societal Risk and Policy Making should be of interest to all those professionally concerned with defining the optimal separation between hazardous activities and equally desirable developments nearby.

Includes 10 handy do's and don'ts of using KPIs Want to measure the performance of your people and your business? Need a quick overview of the most useful KPIs and how to use them? Only want what you need to know, rather than reams of theory? With the critical Key Performance Indicators required to understand your employees, financials and customers, this book tells you what you need to know, fast. 'This book does a fantastic job of narrowing down the best KPIs for you and your team. It's short, sharp and incredibly useful.' --Thomas H. Davenport, Distinguished Professor at Babson College and author of BigData@Work

How do managers of a firm choose between alternative finan cial policies? Can the choice of a particular financial policy affect the value of the firm? Since the early 1960s, the debate on these questions has been lively and interesting as economists have inves tigated the effect on the value of the firm of relaxing the various assumptions in the celebrated Modigliani-Miller theory. Further more, even if we stick to the MM-assumptions (that is, we assume perfect and complete capital markets, no taxes and symmetric information), and we therefore know that only optimally chosen investments determine firm's value, another interesting question arises: How does the structure of ownership affect investment de cisions (and, in turn, values)? This research monograph attempts to analyze some of the issues involved in this debate. It belongs to the area of mathematical economics and is intended to appeal to mathematical economists as well as economists and mathemati cians. It is meant to deal with economically relevant problems in a mathematically adequate way. To decide whether or not it succeeds in this task, it is up to the reader. I am greatly indebted to Dr. Margaret Bray for her supervi sion of my PhD thesis in Economics at the London School of Eco nomics from which this book resulted. She helped me as friend and adviser through many struggles in the last three years and invested a great amount of work in this thesis."

Information Technology (IT) - the field that links computer and communications equipment and software - is transforming the way modern business is done. Examples of factors leading these changes are: rapidly decreasing costs of computer hardware, government de-regulation, accelerating global competitiveness, an increasing management awareness, and the knowledge of how to employ Information Technology successfully. These have all led to the increase of IT's effects on existing markets, and, in the process, are creating entirely new markets. This book explores a variety of advances in IT by a group of researchers who are at the cutting edge of this research. Moreover, the book examines these innovative developments in terms of the Information Technology field and its effect on modern business. It is becoming increasingly apparent that IT is critical to success in today's competitive marketplace. As a result, this book examines a host of emerging effects at work in these developments and seeks to make sense out of these counter-acting, sometimes multiplicative, effects which can become obstacles for managers who wish to develop competitive applications of IT. These effects and the development of IT are grouped into four general categories in the book: Future Markets, Inter-Organizational Systems, Focused Applications, and Future Strategies.

Over the past ten years, there has been growing interest in the process of strategic decision-making among both managers and researchers. Strategic decisions are important for five main reasons: They are large-scale, risky and hard to reverse; they are a bridge between deliberate and emerging strategies; they can be a major source of organizational learning; they play an important part in the development of individual managers and they cut accross functions and academic disciplines. Strategic Decisions summarizes the current state of the art in research on strategic decision-making, with chapters prepared by leading strategy researchers. The editors also present implications for current application and proposed directions for future research.

Recent debate in both Europe and North America has focussed on how clinicians make judgments and decisions, how these may be evaluated and how they could be improved. This volume provides students, teachers and practitioners with a comprehensive introduction to the main descriptive and prescriptive approaches to judgment and decision making in clinical medicine. The contributors, who include psychologists, economists, decision theorists, statisticians, lawyers and sociologists, as well as medical specialists, provide examples of recent empirical research and its applications, as well as outlining the relevant concepts and theories. Policy-capturing models, data-based aids, expert ('knowledg-based') systems and decision analysis are the main techniques introduced, with attention to both their methodological bases and practical evaluation. Also included in the collection are a series of papers which consider the economic, ethical and legal contexts of clinical activity and the education and wider socialization of clinicians. Issues surrounding the 'cost-effective' use of resources, the obtaining of 'informed consent' from patients and ethical behaviour under uncertainty are highlighted.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS PART 1 FISH CONSUMPTION AND METHYLMERCURY EXPOSURE IN THE AMAZON A. C. BARBOSA, A. M. GARCIA, J. R. DESOUZAI Mercurycontamination inhairofriverine 1-8 populations of Apiacas Reserve in the Brazilian Amazon E. D. BIDONE, Z. C. CASTILHOS, T. J. S. SANTOS, T. M. C. SOUZA and L. D. LACERDA I Fish contamination and human exposure to mercury in Tartarugalzinho River, Amapa State, Northern Amazon, Brazil. A screening approach 9-15 H. A. KEHRIG, O. MALM and H. AKAGI I Methylmercury in hair samples from different riverine groups, Amazon, Brazil 17-29 J. LEBEL, M. ROULET, D. MERGLER, M. LUCOTTE and F. LARRIBE I Fish diet and 31-44 mercury exposure in a riparian Amazonian population O. MALM. , J. R. D. GUIMARAES, M. B. CASTRO, W. R. BASTOS, J. P. VIANA, F. J. P. BRANCHES, E. G. SILVEIRA and W. C. PFEIFFER I Follow-up of mercury levels in fish, human hairand urine in the Madeira and Tapaj6s basins, Amazon, Brazil 45-51 PART 2 CHILD DEVELOPMENT AND LONG TERM EXPOSURE G. J. MYERS, P. W. DAVIDSON, C. COX, C. F. SHAMLAYE, O. CHOISY, E. CERNICHIARI, A. CHOI, J. SLOANE-REEVES, C. AXTELL, P. GAO and T. W. CLARKSON I The Seychelles child development study: Results and new directions through twenty-nine months 53-61 B. WHEATLEY, S. PARADIS, M. LASSONDE, M. -F. GIGUERE and S.

Statistical Models for Strategic Management offers practical guidance in the use of statistical models for empirical research in strategic management. The contributions in this edited volume come from distinguished researchers in the field of Strategic Management, and provide illustration of most statistical models that are relevant for strategy research. The book is divided into four major topical areas: Strategic Analysis and Firm Strategies; The Resource-Based View of the Firm; Transaction Costs, Agency Theory, and the Boundaries of the Firm; and Corporate Alliances, Acquisitions and Networks.

Semiorder is probably one of the most frequently ordered structures in science. It naturally appears in fields like psychometrics, economics, decision sciences, linguistics and archaeology. It explicitly takes into account the inevitable imprecisions of scientific instruments by allowing the replacement of precise numbers by intervals. The purpose of this book is to dissect this structure and to study its fundamental properties. The main subjects treated are the numerical representations of semiorders, the generalizations of the concept to valued relations, the aggregation of semiorders and their basic role in a general theoretical framework for multicriteria decision-aid methods. Audience: This volume is intended for students and researchers in the fields of decision analysis, management science, operations research, discrete mathematics, classification, social choice theory, and order theory, as well as for practitioners in the design of decision tools.

A central problem of prescriptive decision making is the mismatch between the elegant formal models of decision theory and the less elegant, informal thinking of decision makers, especially when dealing with ill-structured situations. This problem has been a central concern of the authors and their colleagues over the past two decades. They have wisely (to my mind) realized that any viable solution must be informed by a deep understanding of both the structural properties of alternative formalisms and the cognitive demands that they impose on decision makers. Considering the two in parallel reduces the risk of forcing decision makers to say things and endorse models that they do not really understand. It opens the door for creative solutions, incorporating insights from both decision theory and cognitive psychology. It is this opportunity that the authors have so ably exploited in this important book. Under the pressures of an interview situation, people will often answer a question that is put to them. Thus, they may be willing to provide a decision consultant with probability and utility assessments for all manner of things. However, if they do not fully understand the implications of what they are saying and the use to which it will be put, then they cannot maintain cognitive mastery of the decision models intended to represent their beliefs and interests.

The numerous advances in mathematical programming have opened up new insights about sensitivity analysis. The paradigm What if...?' question is no longer the only question of interest. Often, we want to know Why...?' and Why not...?' Such questions were not analyzed in the early years of mathematical programming to the same extent that they are now, and we have not only expanded our thinking about post-optimal analysis', but also about solution analysis', even if the solution obtained is not optimal. Therefore, it is now time to examine all the recent advances on sensitivity analysis and parametric programming. This book combines the origins of sensitivity analysis with the state of the art. It covers much of the traditional approaches with a modern perspective, and shows recent results using the optimal partition approach, stemming from interior methods, for both linear and quadratic programming. It examines the special case of network models. It presents a neglected topic, qualitative sensitivity analysis, as well as elements of mixed integer programming and gives a modern perspective of nonlinear programming. It provides recent advances in multi-criteria mathematical programming and also describes the state-of-the-art in stochastic programming. It covers recent advances in understanding redundancy in quadratic programs, considers an approach to diagnosing infeasibility in linear and nonlinear programs, and gives an overview of sensitivity analysis for fuzzy mathematical programming.

This book is designed for the chemist, formulator, student, teacher, forensic scientist, or others who wish to investigate the composition of polymeric materials. Theinformationwithinthesepagesisintendedtoarmthereaderwiththenecessary workingknowledgetoanalyze, characterize, anddeformulatematerials. ThestructureoftheContentsisintendedtoassistthereaderinquicklylocating the subject of interest and proceed to it with a minimum of expended time and effort. The Contents provides an outline of major topics and relevant materials char- terizedforthereader'sconvenience. Anintroductiontoanalysisanddeformulation is provided in Chapter 1 to acquaint the reader with analytical methods and their applications. Extensive references are provided as additional sources ofinfor- tion. All tables arelocatedin theAppendix, beginning onp. 235. GUIDE FOR USE This is a practical book structured to efficiently use the reader's time with a minimum effort of searching for entries and information by following these brief instructions: 1. Searchthe Contents and/orIndex fora subject withinthe text. 2. Analysis/deformulation principles are discussed at the outset to familiarize the reader with analysis methods and instruments; followed by formu- tions, materials, and analysis ofpaint, plastics, adhesives, and inks; and finally reformulation methods to test the results of analysis. 3. Materials and a wide assortment of formulations are discussed within the text by chapter/section number. 4. Materials are referred toby various names (trivial, trade, and scientific), and these are listed in tables and cross-referenced to aid the reader.

Scientists and regulators have struggled to define the role of theory, experiments, models and common sense in risk analysis. This situation has been made worse by the isolation of theory from modeling, of experimentation from theory, and of practical action from basic science. This book arises from efforts at regulatory agencies and industries to bring more science into health risk analysis so that society may better use limited resources to improve public health. This book covers: the characterization of exposure to pollutants and other sources of risk; the movement of pollutants into the body via inhalation; ingestion, dermal absorption, and exposures to radiation; the movement of a pollutant as it cascades through the tissues and organs of the body; and the development of principles and models for dose-response modeling. The book shows how an understanding of the biological, chemical, and physical properties of the environment and of the human body can guide the selection of mathematical models, and how these models can aid in estimating risks. Included in the book are models covering the full range of topics in human health risk analysis: exposure assessment, rates of intake, deposition and uptake by organs, absorption across membranes, biokinetics, dosimetry, and dose-response. The reader will gain from the book a better understanding of how environmental health science, as applied in risk analysis, can be used to create a more rational basis for the improvement of public health.