Models and Experiments in Risk and Rationality presents original contributions to the areas of individual choice, experimental economics, operations and analysis, multiple criteria decision making, market uncertainty, game theory and social choice. The papers, which were presented at the FUR VI conference, are arranged to appear in order of increasing complexity of the decision environment or social context in which they situate themselves. The first section Psychological Aspects of Risk-Bearing', considers choice at the purely individual level and for the most part, free of any specific economic or social context. The second section examines individual choice within the classical expected utility approach while the third section works from a perspective that includes non-expected utility preferences over lotteries. Section four, Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Under Uncertainty', considers the more specialized but crucial context of uncertain choice involving tradeoffs between competing criteria -- a field which is becoming of increasing importance in applied decision analysis. The final two sections examine uncertain choice in social or group contexts.

The encounter, in the late seventies, between the theory of triangular norms, issuing frorn stochastic geornetry, especially the works of Menger, Schweizer and Sklar, on the one band, and the theory of fuzzy sets due to Zadeh, 10n the other band has been very fruitful. Triangular norms have proved to be ready-rnade mathematical rnodels of fuzzy set intersections and have shed light on the algebraic foundations of fuzzy sets. One basic idea behind the study of triangular norms is to solve functional equations that stern frorn prescribed axioms describing algebraic properties such as associativity. Alternative operations such as rneans have been characterized in a similar way by Kolmogorov, for instance, and the rnethods for solving functional equations are now weil established thanks to the efforts of Aczel, among others. One can say without overstaternent that the introduction of triangular norms in fuzzy sets has strongly influenced further developrnents in fuzzy set theory, and has significantly contributed to its better acceptance in pure and applied rnathematics circles. The book by Fodor and Roubens systematically exploits the benefits of this encounter in the- analysis of fuzzy relations. The authors apply functional equation rnethods to notions such as equivalence relations, and various kinds of orderings, for the purpose of preference rnodelling. Centtal to this book is the rnultivalued extension of the well-known result claiming that any relation expressing weak preference can be separated into three cornponents respectively describing strict preference, indifference and incomparability.

Planning in a general sense is concerned with the design of communication and decision making mechanisms in organizations where information and choice are decentralized. Non-cooperative planning theory as it is developed in this book treats the incentive aspects hereof. It stresses how strategic behavior and opportunism may impede planning, and how this can be coped with via the organization of communication and decision making, the design of information and control systems, and the development of incentive schemes. In particular, the book contains a thorough investigation of incentive provision in information production.

The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for estimating space-time stochastic properties of local climatic factors reflecting global climate change. Specifically, daily precipitation amount and daily mean temperature are considered and illustrated with application to the state of Nebraska, U. S. A. Furthermore, a drought index with and without global climate change is examined. The magnitude and consequences of regional response to anticipated climatic changes are uncertain (Houghton et al., 1990). Typical questions to be answered are: can time series of hydrological events or 10cal climatic variables such as daily temperature be conditioned in scenarios of future climate change and if so, how can this be utilized ? Can extreme historical drought events be reproduced by a stochastic hydroc1imatological model ? Can such a model be used with General Circu1ation Model (GCM) outputs to evaluate the regional/local effects of climate change scenarios? The approach presented in this paper is an extension of the usual analysis of regional hydrometeorological impacts of climate change: we propose to examine time series of GCM produced daily atmospheric circulation patterns (CP), thought to be relatively accurate GCM output to estimate local climatic factors. The paper is organized as follows. First, daily CPs are classified and analyzed statistically, first for historical and then for GCM produced data. Next, the height of the 500 hPa pressure field is introduced as an additional physically relevant variable influencing local climatic factors within each CP type."

Future Risks and Risk Management provides a broad perspective on risk, including basic philosophical issues concerned with values, psychological issues, such as the perception of risk, the factors that generate risks in current and future technological and social systems, including both technical and organizational factors. No other volume adopts this broad perspective. Future Risks and Risk Management will be useful in a variety of contexts, both for teaching and as a source book for the risk professional needing to be informed of the broader issues in the field.

This work results from my interest in the field of vector optimiza tion. I stumbled first upon this subject in 1982 during my six months visit to the Istituto di Elaborazione della Informazione in Pisa, Italy, supported by a fellowship of the (Italian) Consiglio Nationale delle Richerche. I was attracted then by a gap between vector optimiza tion used to serve as a formal model for multiple objective decision problems and the decision problems themselves, the gap nonexis tent in scalar optimization. Roughly speaking, vector optimization provides methods for ranking decisions according to a partial order whereas decision making requires a linear ordering of decisions. The book deals with vector optimization. However, vector opti mization is considered here not only as a topic of research in itself but also as a basic tool for decision making. In consequence, all results presented here are aimed at exploiting and understanding the structure of elements (decisions) framed by a vector optimiza tion problem with the underlying assumption that the results should be interpretable in terms and applicable in the context of decision making. Computational tractability of results is therefore of special concern throughout this book. A unified framework for presentation is offered by the Cone Sep aration Technique (CST) founded on the notion of cone separation."

Decision Theory and Decision Analysis: Trends and Challenges is divided into three parts. The first part, overviews, provides state-of-the-art surveys of various aspects of decision analysis and utility theory. The second part, theory and foundations, includes theoretical contributions on decision-making under uncertainty, partial beliefs and preferences. The third section, applications, reflects the real possibilities of recent theoretical developments such as non-expected utility theories, multicriteria decision techniques, and how these improve our understanding of other areas including artificial intelligence, economics, and environmental studies.

We've known for years now that demands on leaders are only increasing. Yet we have lacked widely understood, empirically grounded and rigorous ways to support the development of adequate maturity of heart, complexity of mind and skilful practice for leaders to meet these demands. Over the past three decades, a growing number of scholars and practitioners have explored the value of a developmental approach to these issues. In Maturing Leadership, Jonathan Reams brings together a cast of expert contributors to introduce this work to a wider audience. While this approach has previously been on the margins of mainstream leadership development research, Reams brings it to the centre, moving beyond the cliched characterizations of 'inner work' to bring a finer granularity, precision and rigor to the subjective workings of leaders. The chapters explore how applying insights from the field of constructivist cognitive development can be a key driver for supporting improvements in how we approach leadership development. For researchers and students of leadership, this is an essential addition to the leading theories of developmental approaches to leadership. Increasing complexity in the world is not a passing fad, and the need for leaders to grow in the maturity and sophistication of their responses is a long-term need.

Much has already been written about risk assessment. Epidemiologists write books on how risk assessment is used to explore the factors that influence the distribution of disease in populations of people. Toxicologists write books on how risk assess ment involves exposing animals to risk agents and concluding from the results what risks people might experience if similarly exposed. Engineers write books on how risk assessment is utilized to estimate the risks of constructing a new facility such as a nuclear power plant. Statisticians write books on how risk assessment may be used to analyze mortality or accident data to determine risks. There are already many books on risk assessment-the trouble is that they all seem to be about different sUbjects! This book takes another approach. It brings together all the methods for assessing risk into a common framework, thus demonstrating how the various methods relate to one another. This produces four important benefits: * First, it provides a comprehensive reference for risk assessment. This one source offers readers concise explanations of the many methods currently available for describing and quantifying diverse types of risks. * Second, it consistently evaluates and compares available risk assessment methods and identifies their specific strengths and limitations. Understand ing the limitations of risk assessment methods is important. The field is still in its infancy, and the problems with available methods are disappoint ingly numerous. At the same time, risk assessment is being used.

Misaligned companies, like cars out of alignment, can develop serious problems if not corrected quickly. They are hard to steer and don't respond well to changes in direction. This groundbreaking book shows you how to get —and keep —all the vital elements of your organization aligned and headed in the same direction at the same time.

Managers must now keep their people centered in the midst of change, deemphasize hierarchy, and distribute leadership by distributing authority, information, knowledge, and customer data throughout their organization. Alignment is a response to the new business reality where customer requirements are in flux, where competitive forces are turbulent, and where the bond of loyalty between an organization and its people has been weakened. The old linear approach to management has given way to one of simultaneity —to alignment.

As pioneers of the alignment concept, the authors have developed this unique approach based on their work with leading companies throughout the world. The Power of Alignment is packed with war stories and the firsthand perspectives of industry leaders. You'll learn how world-class organizations, including Federal Express, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Columbia/HCA Healthcare, Citizens Utilities, AirTouch, and UNUM achieved extraordinary business results. Now, through the authors' expertise, you'll see how alignment can work for your organization.

In essence, alignment links the five key elements of an organization —people, process, customers, business strategies, and, of course, leadership —to obtain breakthrough results, chief among them, sustained growth and profit, loyal customers, and a high-performing work force. The Power of Alignment:

• Offers a clear framework for aligning and linking the crucial elements that build and sustain a company's success
• Provides self-assessment tools as well as benchmarking measures for evaluating an organization's critical competencies
• Enables managers to create a work force where each employee can relate his or her activities to the goals and strategic objectives of the company
• Helps a company determine when and where it is out of alignment, and gives descriptions of such common company pathologies as "The Phantom Limb Syndrome," "Strategy Interruptus," and "Dead Man Walking"
• Prescribes specific steps for getting an organization back on track toward a single, shared vision of its goals

Essential reading for all managers and executives, The Power of Alignment offers a new way to reestablish focus and sustained energy, and is a dynamic approach for staying balanced and achieving extraordinary levels of performance.

"This book is savvy, detailed, timely, and clearly written. I highly recommend it for any leader facing the challenges posed by global business today." — Dana Mead Chairman and CEO, Tenneco Former Chairman National Association of Manufacturers

"It's not only the stars that have to be in alignment to reach your destination, it's all the internal processes, rewards, and drivers. Read The Power of Alignment, and while you may not unlock the secrets of the universe, you will overcome the barriers to corporate success." — William L. Boyan President and COO John Hancock Mutual Life Insurance Company.

"This important book goes beyond TQM and reengineering by creating a new approach called Alignment. The authors show that great companies manage to link strategy and people and integrate customer needs with continuous improvement processes." — Peter Augustsson President and Group Chief Executive AB SKF.

"The Power of Alignment gets to the heart of a critical element of organizational leadership, namely focus. Every leader who reads it will undoubtedly do some serious soul-searching about the consistency of corporate vision, goals, management systems, and incentive mechanisms." — Louis E. Lataif Dean Boston University School of Management.

"Alignment has been a key ingredient in Fluor Daniel's ability to identify and deliver services that meet our customers' value requirements." — Les McCraw Chairman and CEO Fluor Corporation

Recent democratization and the accompanied liberalization of the media in Central and Eastern Europe has brought the devastating environmental impacts of the intensive and careless industrialization of the last 40 years to the surface. Less is known, however, about the social, political and institutional background of environmental risk management which led to the present situation, as well as about recent changes. Environment and Democratic Transition: Policy and Politics in Central and Eastern Europe provides an overview of the mechanism of policy making, the role of the scientific community, the environmental movements, and the public in risk controversies in Central and Eastern Europe from the 1970s until 1991. The book brings together studies by leading social scientists from the East and the West who investigate the economic, legal, institutional, behavioral, social and political aspects of environmental policy. In addition to analyzing past histories, most contributions focus also on challenges, pitfalls and dilemmas that the region's policy makers and environmentalists must face during the period of transition and into the future.

From two pioneers in business analytics, an update of the classic book on how analytics and business intelligence are transforming competition and how leading organizations build and compete on an analytical capability.The first book to describe how analytics are changing the business landscape, updated with new information on predictive analytics, AI, and automation.Describes the specific attributes of firms that are analytical competitors and how they use business intelligence and analytics to make better decisions, execute more effectively, and optimize businesses processes.Lays out a five-stage model for becoming an analytical competitor and developing analytical capabilities.Show how companies are applying analytics across the enterprise: from finance and HR, to R&D and manufacturing.Shows how analytics transform relationships between customers and suppliers.Presents the key steps and capabilities for becoming an analytical competitor.Audience:Managers in all functional areas in organizations of all kinds (not strictly IT).Senior leaders who want to build an analytic capability in their organization and drive an enterprise-wide approach to analytics.Consultants.Vendors of analytical solutions and services.

Estimating Device Reliability: Assessment of Credibility is concerned with the plausibility of reliability estimates obtained from statistical models. Statistical predictions are necessary because technology is always pushing into unexplored areas faster than devices can be made long-lived by design. Flawed reliability methodologies can produce disastrous results, an outstanding example of which is the catastrophic failure of the manned space shuttle CHALLENGER in January 1986. This issue is not whether, but which, statistical models should be used. The issue is not making reliability estimates, but is instead their credibility. The credibility questions explored in the context of practical applications include: What does the confidence level associated with the use of statistical model mean? Is the numerical result associated with a high confidence level beyond dispute? When is it appropriate to use the exponential (constant hazard rate) model? Does this model always provide the most conservative reliability estimate? Are the results of traditional random' failure hazard rate calculations tenable? Are there persuasive alternatives? What model should be used to describe the useful life of a device when wearout is absent? When Weibull and lognormal failure plots containing a large number of failure times appear similar, how should the correct wearout model be selected? Is it important to distinguish between a conservative upper bound on a probability of failure and a realistic estimate of the same probability? Estimating Device Reliability: Assessment of Credibility is for those who are obliged to make reliability calculations with a paucity of somewhat corrupt data, by using inexactmodels, and by making physical assumptions which are impractical to verify. Illustrative examples deal with a variety of electronic devices, ICs and lasers.

As desired, the infonnation demand correspondence is single valued at equilibrium prices. Hence no planner is needed to assign infonnation allocations to individuals. Proposition 4. For any given infonnation price system p E . P (F *), almost every a E A demands a unique combined infonnation structure (although traders may be indifferent among partial infonnation sales from different information allocations, etc. ). In particular, the aggregate excess demand correspondence for net combined infonnation trades is a continuous function. Proof Uniqueness fails only if an agent can obtain the same expected utility from two or more net combined infonnation allocations. If this happens, appropriate slight perturbations of personal probability vectors destroy the equality unless the utility functions and wealth allocations were independent across states. Yet, when utilities and wealths don't depend on states in S, no infonnation to distinguish the states is desired, so that the demand for such infonnation structures must equal zero. To show the second claim, recall that if the correspondence is single valued for almost every agent, then its integral is also single valued. Finally, note that an upper hemicontinuous (by Proposition 2) correspondence which is single valued everywhere is, in fact, a continuous function. [] REFERENCES Allen, Beth (1986a). "The Demand for (Differentiated) Infonnation"; Review of Economic Studies. 53. (311-323). Allen, Beth (1986b). "General Equilibrium with Infonnation Sales"; Theory and Decision. 21. (1-33). Allen, Beth (1990). "Infonnation as an Economic Commodity"; American Economic Review. 80. (268-273).

With the establishment of the innovation economy, the Fourth Industrial Revolution is becoming a reality. As this occurs, new forms of leadership arise, generated by the interaction between leadership functions and neurology. From political leadership to organizational structure, these industrial changes will cause ripples throughout our society. It is important to get ahead of these changes, adapting to the new forms of leadership necessary, before these ripples become tidal waves. In order to do so, expert author Jon-Arild Johannessen turns to the processes that are a key part of the innovation economy, examining how value creation is changing in the new Industrial Revolution. In this innovative book, Johannessen asks the question: what are the key value creation processes in the innovation economy? And how do these processes affect the logic of industry and industrial societies?

'Extraordinary. This book will inspire you to reach your full potential' Jason Fox Are you stuck in a rut? Do you have more to give? Do you dream of leading a different life? Ben Williams was struggling with drug addiction and battling suicidal thoughts when he saw an advert for the Royal Marines Commandos that changed his life forever. Serving ten years in the Commandos, he learnt important lessons about purpose, integrity, motivation and teamwork. Leaving the Commandos because of injury, Ben set up a coaching business that has helped high-performance companies and professional sports teams like the England Football Squad, coaching them in the build-up to their outstanding performance at the 2018 World Cup. Now Ben is sharing his principles for success. In Commando Mindset, Ben reveals his process for achieving goals of any size to help you take your life to the next level. Inside you'll learn how to: - identify your personal inspirations and values - overcome your fears - set and achieve realistic goals - keep yourself motivated Whether you want to set up a business, run a marathon for the first time or learn a new skill, the Commando Mindset will help you reach your full potential and achieve anything you set your mind to.

There is no shortage of books on decision making-books that tell you how irrational you are, how being rational is holding you back or how competing brain systems cause chaos with your ability to choose wisely. All of these make it difficult to decide how to decide. DECIDE cuts through the clutter. Part science and part practice, DECIDE follows Tremaine's decade long quest to answer the question: what is a good decision and how do I make one? The answer is illustrated with examples from her pioneering work in building decision-making systems for teams up to large multinational organisations. Tremaine's straight talk and use of the latest (and most reliable) research lead you on a path of discovery as you unpack your own decision-making process, plug the holes in it and learn new skills to ensure that you make the best possible decisions. DECIDE is an indispensable guide for individuals, teams and leaders.

As we get caught up in the quagmire of Big Data and analytics, it remains critically important to be able to reflect and apply insights, experience, and intuition to your decision-making process. In fact, a recent research study at Tel Aviv University found that executives who relied on their intuition were 90 percent accurate in their decisions. Bursting the Big Data Bubble: The Case for Intuition-Based Decision Making focuses on this intuition-based decision making. The book does not discount data-based decision making, especially for decisions that are important and complex. Instead, it emphasizes the importance of applying intuition, gut feel, spirituality, experiential learning, and insight as key factors in the executive decision-making process. Explaining how intuition is a product of past experience, learning, and ambient factors, the text outlines methods that will help to enhance your data-driven decision-making process with intuition-based decision making. The first part of the book, the "Research Track", presents contributions from leading researchers worldwide on the topic of intuition-based decision making as applied to management. In the second part of the book, the "Practice Track," global executives and senior managers in industry, government, universities, and not-for-profits present vignettes that illustrate how they have used their intuition in making key decisions. The research part of the book helps to frame the problem and address leading research in intuition-based decision making. The second part then explains how to apply these intuition-based concepts and issues in your own decision-making process.

In this volume we present some of the papers delivered at FUR-IV - the Fourth International Conference on Founda tions and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory in Budapest, June 1988. The FUR Conferences have provided an appreciated forum every two years since 1982 within which scientists can report recent issues and prospective applications of decision theory, and exchange ideas about controversial questions of this field. Focal points of the presented papers are: expected utility versus alterna tive utility models, concepts of risk and uncertainty, developments of game theory, and investigations of real decision making behaviour under uncertainty and/or in risky situations. We hope that this sample of papers will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers who are interested in and fami liar with this interesting and exciting issues of decision theory. A wide range of theoretical and practical questions is considered in papers included in this volume, and many of them closely related to economics. In fact, there were two Nobel-Laureates in economics among the participants: I. Herbert A. Simon (1978) and Maurice Allais (1988), who won the prize just after the conference. His paper deals with problems of cardinal utility. After a concise overview of the history and theory of cardinal utility he gives an estimate of the invariant cardinal utility function for its whole domain of variation (i. e."

The present book treats a highly specialized topic, namely effec tivity functions, which are a tool for describing the power structure implicit in social choice situations of various kind. One of the ad vantages of effectivity functions is that they seem to contain exactly the information which is needed in several problems of implementa tion, that is in designing the rules for individual behaviour given that this behaviour at equilibrium should result in a prescribed functional connection between preferences and outcome. We shall be interested in both formal properties of effectiv ity functions and applications of them in social choice theory, and among such applications in particular the implementation problem. This choice of emphasis necessarily means that some other topics are treated only superficially or not at all. We do not attempt to cover all contributions to the field, rather we try to put some of the results together in order to get a reasonably coherent theory about the role of the power structure in cooperative implementation. The authors are indebted to many persons for assistance and advice during the work on this book. In particular, we would like to thank Peter Fristrup and Bodil Hansen for critical reading of the manuscript, and Lene Petersen for typesetting in '.lEX."

Risk communication: the evolution of attempts Risk communication is at once a very new and a very old field of interest. Risk analysis, as Krimsky and Plough (1988:2) point out, dates back at least to the Babylonians in 3200 BC. Cultures have traditionally utilized a host of mecha nisms for anticipating, responding to, and communicating about hazards - as in food avoidance, taboos, stigma of persons and places, myths, migration, etc. Throughout history, trade between places has necessitated labelling of containers to indicate their contents. Seals at sites of the ninth century BC Harappan civilization of South Asia record the owner and/or contents of the containers (Hadden, 1986:3). The Pure Food and Drug Act, the first labelling law with national scope in the United States, was passed in 1906. Common law covering the workplace in a number of countries has traditionally required that employers notify workers about significant dangers that they encounter on the job, an obligation formally extended to chronic hazards in the OSHA's Hazard Communication regulation of 1983 in the United States. In this sense, risk communication is probably the oldest way of risk manage ment. However, it is only until recently that risk communication has attracted the attention of regulators as an explicit alternative to the by now more common and formal approaches of standard setting, insuring etc. (Baram, 1982)."