This text takes an integrated approach, and places emphasis on modeling and the application of pure methods rather than statistical techniques. This emphasis allows readers to learn how to solve business problems, not mathematical equations, and prepares them for their role as decision makers. All models and analyses in the book use Excel so readers make decisions without having to complete difficult calculations. The book is also accompanied by KaddStat, an easy-to-use add-in to Excel, which makes it easier to run complex statistical tests on Excel.

This book provides research on the human element in forecasting. It focuses on how we can improve our ability to accurately forecast.

As established markets become less profitable, companies increasingly need to find ways to create and capture new markets. Despite much investment and commitment, most firms struggle to do this. What, exactly, is getting in their way? World-renowned professors W. Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne, the authors of the best-selling book Blue Ocean Strategy have spent over a decade exploring that question. They have seen that the trouble lies in managers' mental models--ingrained assumptions and theories about the way the world works. Though these models may work perfectly well in mature markets, they undermine executives' attempts to discover uncontested new spaces with ample potential (blue oceans) and keep companies firmly anchored in existing spaces where competition is bloody (red oceans). In this bound version of their bestselling Harvard Business Review classic article, they describe how to break free of these red ocean traps. To do that, managers need to: (1) Focus on attracting new customers, not pleasing current customers; (2) Worry less about segmentation and more about what different segments have in common; (3) Understand that market creation is not synonymous with either technological innovation or creative destruction; and (3) Stop focusing on premium versus low-cost strategies.

The Harvard Business Review Classics series offers you the opportunity to make seminal Harvard Business Review articles a part of your permanent management library. Each highly readable volume contains a groundbreaking idea that continues to shape best practices and inspire countless managers around the world--and will have a direct impact on you today and for years to come.

This book is designed to assist industrial engineers and production managers in developing procedural and methodological engineering tools to meet industrial standards and mitigate engineering and production challenges. It offers practitioners expert guidance on how to implement adequate statistical process control (SPC), which takes account of the capability to ensure a stable process and then regulate if variations take place due to variables other than a random variation. Powerful engineering models of new product introduction (NPI), continuous improvement (CI), and the eight disciplines (8D) model of problem solving techniques are explained. The final three chapters introduce new methodological models in operations research (OR) and their applications in engineering, including the hyper-hybrid coordination for process effectiveness and production efficiency, and the Kraljic-Tesfay portfolio matrix of industrial buying.

Professional organizations-such as accounting and consulting firms, law firms, and investment banks-are fundamental to the functioning of the global economy. Yet many of the most powerful are notoriously private. This book uncovers the complex, messy, and surprisingly emotional challenges of leading professional organizations-revealing the realities that lies beneath the 'professional' surface which these organizations present to the outside world. Individual professionals-highly educated, highly intelligent, and highly opinionated-are generally reluctant to see themselves as followers and may be equally reluctant to put themselves forward as leaders. They value their autonomy and confer authority on their leaders on a highly contingent basis. How does a professional come to be seen as a leader within a professional organization? How do leaders maintain their position once they have reached the top of their organization? How do they navigate the complex power relationships among their professional colleagues and actually get things done? Leading Professionals: Power, Politics, and Prima Donnas analyses the complex power dynamics and interpersonal politics that lie at the heart of leadership in professional organizations. It is based on Laura Empson's scholarly research into the world's leading professional organizations across a range of sectors, including interviews with over 500 senior professionals in 16 countries. It draws on the latest organizational and leadership theory to analyse in detail exactly how professionals come together to create 'leadership'. It identifies how change happens within professional organizations and explains why their leaders so often fail.

Spatial Reasoning for Effective GIS by Joseph K. Berry This incisive and witty book describes the development of geographic technology from maps that simply tell us "Where is what?" to systems that help us decide "So what?" It encourages new understandings of mapped data, data analysis procedures, and the uses of maps, fostering an appreciation of GIS as an effective analytical tool in many complex processes. The cover image was generated by Innovative GIS Solutions, Inc., Fort Collins, Colo., using its RAPiD Surfing software to enhance the terrain analysis capabilities available with the ARC/INFO GIS.^* The image was created using Digital Elevation Model data for the Elsinore Valley Municipal Water District of the Santa Ana mountains in southern California. The image represents a 3-D perspective looking north toward Lake Elsinore with partial renderings of analytical hillshading and shaded relief draped on a wire frame elevation model. ^*RAPiD Surfing is a trademark of Innovative GIS Solutions, Inc., Fort Collins, Colo. ARC/INFO is a registered trademark of Environmental Systems Research Institute Inc., Redlands, Calif.

What causes conflict among high-level American corporate executives? How do executives manage their conflicts? Based on interviews with over two hundred executives and their support personnel, Calvin Morrill seeks to answer these and other questions and also provide an intimate portrait of these men and women as they cope with problems usually hidden from those outside their exclusive ranks. Personal and corporate scandals, compensation battles, budget worries, interdepartmental rivalries, personal enmities, and general rancor are among the topis looked at. The author asserts that what most influences the way managers handle routine conflicts are the cultures created by their company's organizational structure: whether there is a strong hierarchy, a weak hierarchy, or an absence of any strong central authority. The issues most likely to cause conflict within corporations he identifies as managerial style, competition between departments, and performance evaluations, promotions, and compensation. Among the people whose day-to-day lives are studied are Jacobs, a divisional executive whose intuitive understanding of the corporate hierarchy enables him to topple his incompetent superior without direct confrontation; Fuller, who through a mix of brains, guile, and connections rises from staff executive secretary to corporate vice president in a large bank; Green, an old-fashioned accounting partner in a firm being taken over by management consultants; and the "Princess of Power," "Iron Man," and the "Terminator" - executives fighting their way to the top of a successful entertainment company. This portrayal of daily life and conflict management among corporate elites will be of interest to professionals, scholars, and practitioners in organizational culture and behaviour, managerial decision making, dispute, social control, law and society, and organizational ethnography.

The seventh book in the Frontiers of Industrial and Organizational Psychology Series, sponsored by the Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology, a division of the American Psychological Association.

Get the latest perspective on teams from leading professionals in management and social, industrial, and organization psychology. You'll get the latest research perspective on teams and their nature, function, effectiveness, decision-making process, and their ability to change the face of organizational life.

This research-based resource:

• Explores the ins and outs of staffing teams, emphasizing the necessity for the right mix of skills, talents, job functions, and personalities
• Examines diversity and its effect on the group process
• Provides the latest findings on accurate measurement of team performance
• Shows the results of using information technology to help teams get work done and reshape the way individuals work together

Plus, you'll get tested models and methods for improving team effectiveness in any organizational context. Use it as a handbook on team dynamics and as a guide to a better understanding of the effect of teams on organizational design.

The publication of the first book by Kenneth Arrow and Herve Raynaud, in 1986, led to an important wave of research in the field of axiomatic approach applied to managerial logic. "Managerial Logic" summarizes the prospective results of this research and offers consultants, researchers, and decision makers a unified framework for handling the difficult decisions they face. Based on confirmed results of experimental psychology, this book places the problem in a phenomenological framework and shows how the influence of traditional methods has slowed their effective resolution. It provides a panorama of principal concepts and theorems demonstrated on axiomatized methods to guide readers in choosing the best alternatives and rejecting the worst. Finally, it describes the obtained extensions, often paradoxical, reached when these results are extended to classification problems. The objective of this book is also to allow the decision maker to maneuver his way through the plethora of "multi-criterion methods" promoted by council organizations by proposing a meta-method that will allow him to distinguish the wheat from the chaff.

The collaboration with Kenneth Arrow comes essentially from the fact that Arrow's work has influenced all subsequent works quoted in this book. His famous impossibility theorem, his gem of a PhD thesis, and his various other works resulted in him receiving the Nobel Prize for economy just before meeting Herve Raynaud, who was at that time a visiting professor at Berkeley University in California. Their mutual publications serve as the basis for the axiomatic approach in multi-criterion decision-making.

Build teams that move mountains!

Activity participants enjoy a simulated mountain adventure. In this imaginary setting, they must arrive at consensus in order to succeed, and they experience the magic of group power: synergy. Participants face fatigue, dehydration, an avalanche, and more. First, they make decisions on their own. Then, joining the group, they compare answers and attempt to agree on the best course of action.

Participants will:

Listen closely to coworkers

Recognize the benefits of soliciting opinions

Understand the power of synergy . . . and much more!

The leader and participants will have a perfect opportunity to examine the impact of their interpersonal behaviors on one another, on the group's effectiveness, and on the outcome of their adventure. Every step in preparation, facilitation, and follow-up is carefully detailed in the Leader's Manual. The Activity contains the engaging simulation--every participant will need a copy.

Leaders will watch teams develop and prosper when they are "stranded in the Himalayas."

"A terrific book!" —David A. Nadler, chairman, Delta Consulting Group

Tackle the organizational issues related to implementing teams. Learn new designs to support the knowledge work components of organizations. Drawing on over fifteen years of research and consulting with such companies as Honeywell, Hewlett-Packard, Pacific Bell, General Mills, Pratt and Whitney, Pfizer, and Texas Instruments, the authors shows you how to create new organization designs that empower teams so that they make a real difference.

You'll discover how to:

• Design new work teams
• Identify new roles and responsibilities
• Manage team performance
• Create an empowering team environment

Over 50 tables, figures, and exhibits reinforce the practical text. Even if teams already exist at your organization, you'll use this well-researched guide to push your teams to higher levels of performance!

This book presents a selection of current research results in the field of intelligent systems and draws attention to their practical applications and issues connected with the areas of decision-making, economics, business and finance. The nature of the contributions is interdisciplinary - combining psychological and behavioural aspects with the theory and practice of decision-support, design of intelligent systems and development of machine learning tools. The authors, among other topics, discuss the multi-expert evaluation with intangible criteria, suggest a redefinition of the standard multiple-criteria decision-making framework, propose novel methods for causal map analysis and new feature selection methods. The topics are selected to stress the potential of the up-to-date intelligent methods to deal with practical problems relevant in these areas and to provide inspiration for advanced students, researchers and practitioners in the respective fields.

This book presents best practices involving applications of decision sciences, business tactics and behavioral sciences for COVID-19. Addressing concrete problems in these vital fields, it focuses on theoretical and methodological investigations of managerial decisions that drive production and service enterprises' productivity and success. Moreover, it presents optimization techniques and tools that can also be adopted for other applications in various research areas after a thorough analysis of the specific problem. The book is intended for researchers and practitioners seeking optimum solutions to real-life problems in various application areas concerning COVID-19, helping them make scientifically founded decisions.

Win the mental game before you ever step out on the field Commonsense Leadership is the playbook for leaders who want to win. From rallying the team to hitting it out of the park, every leader needs to understand the mental game. It's what separates winners from survivors, and champions from second place it's what gives your team the edge, and the strength to forge ahead through adversity. This book shows you how to boost performance with tips and advice gathered over 45 years of working with major corporations and world-class athletes. Whether your team battles on the field or in the boardroom, the mental component is a critical factor in determining outcomes and left neglected, can become the number-one driving force behind failure. A winning team must be highly skilled, but they must also be resilient, motivated, attentive, and ready to charge the field. Skills can be taught, but the mental factor comes from the environment and the leadership. This book shows you how to boost performance, with real-world solutions for instilling that razor-sharp mental edge. * Emerge from setbacks stronger and more agile * Learn to thrive on stress and play on the emotional edge * Build a culture and environment that fosters motivation * Adopt practical strategies for leading your team to win When equal opponents are matched, winning ultimately comes down to mindset. Although sports analogies are ubiquitous in corporate leadership, the mental development aspect is too often ignored but those who play the mental game and play it well have an unmistakable edge. Commonsense Leadership reveals the secrets to motivation and performance, with practical techniques for building a winning team.

This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the "random expert" hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts' assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke's oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.

NEW from the bestselling HBR's 10 Must Reads series. Most teams underperform. Yours can beat the odds. If you read nothing else on building better teams, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of articles in the Harvard Business Review archive and selected the most important ones to help you assemble and steer teams that get results. Leading experts such as Jon Katzenbach, Teresa Amabile, and Tamara Erickson provide the insights and advice you need to: * Boost team performance through mutual accountability * Motivate large, diverse groups to tackle complex projects * Increase your teams' emotional intelligence * Prevent decision deadlock * Extract results from a bunch of touchy superstars * Fight constructively with top-management colleagues Looking for more Must Read articles from Harvard Business Review? Check out these titles in the popular series: HBR's 10 Must Reads: The Essentials HBR's 10 Must Reads on Communication HBR's 10 Must Reads on Collaboration HBR's 10 Must Reads on Innovation HBR's 10 Must Reads on Leadership HBR's 10 Must Reads on Making Smart Decisions HBR's 10 Must Reads on Managing Yourself HBR's 10 Must Reads on Strategic Marketing

A proven decision management methodology for increased profits and lowered risks

"Knowledge Automation: How to Implement Decision Management in Business Processes" describes a simple but comprehensive methodology for decision management projects, which use business rules and predictive analytics to optimize and automate small, high-volume business decisions. It includes Decision Requirements Analysis (DRA), a new method for taking the crucial first step in any IT project to implement decision management: defining a set of business decisions and identifying all the information--business knowledge and data--required to make those decisions.Describes all the stages in automating business processes, from business process modeling down to the implementation of decision servicesAddresses how to use business rules and predictive analytics to optimize and automate small, high-volume business decisionsProposes a simple "top-down" method for defining decision requirements and representing them in a single diagramShows how clear requirements can allow decision management projects to be run with reduced risk and increased profit

Nontechnical and accessible, "Knowledge Automation" reveals how DRA is destined to become a standard technique in the business analysis and project management toolbox.

This book starts from the relationship between urban built environment and travel behavior and focuses on analyzing the origin of traffic phenomena behind the data through multi-source traffic big data, which makes the book unique and different from the previous data-driven traffic big data analysis literature. This book focuses on understanding, estimating, predicting, and optimizing mobility patterns. Readers can find multi-source traffic big data processing methods, related statistical analysis models, and practical case applications from this book. This book bridges the gap between traffic big data, statistical analysis models, and mobility pattern analysis with a systematic investigation of traffic big data's impact on mobility patterns and urban planning.

Uncertainty is present in every managerial decision, and "Managerial Economics: A Mathematical Approach "effectively demonstrates the application of higher-level statistical tools to inform and clarify the logic of problem solving in a managerial environment.

While illuminating managerial decision-making from all possible angles, this book equips readers with the tools and skills needed to recognize and address uncertainty. The book also explores individual, firm, and market-level decisions; discusses all possible risks and uncertainties encountered in the decision-making process; and prepares readers to deal with both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in managerial decisions. "Managerial Economics "features:

- An emphasis on practical application through real-life examples and problems

- An accessible writing style that presents technical theories in a user-friendly way

- A mathematical and statistical point of view that reveals the presence of uncertainty inherent in managerial decisions

- Thoroughly class-tested material including problems at the end of each chapter, case study questions, review exercises, and objectives that summarize the main discussions

"Managerial Economics "is an excellent book for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses in business and economics departments. The book is also an ideal reference and resource for managers, decision makers, market analysts, and researchers who require information about the theoretical and quantitative aspects of the topic.

Discover fundamental principles of high-stakes change and organizational transformation

The "primes" are universal and unavoidable patterns of group behavior that emerge whenever people attempt to transform systems or collaborate to solve complex problems. Every change agent has felt their effect, but few can recognize, anticipate, and manage them. Unacknowledged, the primes can put any leadership agenda at risk. Once mastered, the primes become a force that drives intended outcomes. "The Primes" is a field manual for anyone ready to step up to serious challenges, predict and manage inevitable problems, create a brighter future, and produce extraordinary results.

An essential guide for 21st century problem solvers and change agents, "The Primes" unveils 46 universal secrets of how to: Tackle complex problems successfully and deliver extraordinary results on timeForge lasting consensus among competing interests and keep teams focused and productiveRecognize and eliminate the most destructive forces in an organizationEstablish cultures of integrity

"The Primes" gives leaders the edge they need to succeed. Once the primes are revealed, you'll see them everywhere

The book takes the inventory control perspective to tackle empty container repositioning logistics problems in regional transportation systems by explicitly considering the features such as demand imbalance over space, dynamic operations over time, uncertainty in demand and transport, and container leasing phenomenon. The book has the following unique features. First, it provides a discussion of broad empty equipment logistics including empty freight vehicle redistribution, empty passenger vehicle redistribution, empty bike repositioning, empty container chassis repositioning, and empty container repositioning (ECR) problems. The similarity and unique characteristics of ECR compared to other empty equipment repositioning problems are explained. Second, we adopt the stochastic dynamic programming approach to tackle the ECR problems, which offers an algorithmic strategy to characterize the optimal policy and captures the sequential decision-making phenomenon in anticipation of uncertainties over time and space. Third, we are able to establish closed-form solutions and structural properties of the optimal ECR policies in relatively simple transportation systems. Such properties can then be utilized to construct threshold-type ECR policies for more complicated transportation systems. In fact, the threshold-type ECR policies resemble the well-known (s, S) and (s, Q) policies in inventory control theory. These policies have the advantages of being decentralized, easy to understand, easy to operate, quick response to random events, and minimal on-line computation and communication. Fourth, several sophisticated optimization techniques such as approximate dynamic programming, simulation-based meta-heuristics, stochastic approximation, perturbation analysis, and ordinal optimization methods are introduced to solve the complex stochastic optimization problems. The book will be of interest to researchers and professionals in logistics, transport, supply chain, and operations research.

This book illustrates how to access the right information for making the best decisions during turbulent times. It is written from an experienced-based perspective that is beneficial for those looking for the development and improvement of the decision-making process. The approach is centered on the author's experience in developing and implementing effective and efficient approaches to decision-making in business and government. Based on those experiences, this book provides insights into how to improve the decision making process of your organization, whether it be large or small. For decision makers and those providing market information for making decisions, this book provide guidelines for a framework which includes systems thinking. For those interested in change management and corporate governance, the book presents examples where it was done well and some examples where it was not and the ensuring consequences. Praise for Systems Thinking Decision-Making Process... "This is an absolutely incredible book by a distinguished practitioner. The range of knowledge and experience that Vince Barabba has had is astounding. I urge everyone who is interested in complex, messy problems to read this amazing book." --Ian I. Mitroff "...Vince has masterfully blended the art of organizational respect with the science of data inquiry to drive change and realize strategic vision. A master storyteller, he does not just teach, his book brings his learnings to life in a meaningful way that if carefully listened to, can change the course of a career." -- Paul D'Alessandro Principal, Health Industries, PwC US "In his latest book, Vince Barabba integrates his vast knowledge from 50 years of dedicated work in both the public and private sectors in order to provide leaders with an actionable framework for radically improving how their organizations collect and use information to make the best decisions for all the wicked messes that now appear in our global village... This book can save your company from living in the dark with false assumptions about all your key stakeholders." -- Ralph H. Kilmann, Ph.D. CEO, Kilmann Diagnostics Co-Author, The Thomas-Kilmann Conflict Mode Instrument (TKI) "Absorbing just a few of the many smart ideas in this book will make you a better leader and decision maker. Thinking systemically about how the hard-earned lessons from Vince Barabba's brilliant career apply to your enterprise could make you a great one." - Chunka Mui Co-Author, A Brief History of a Perfect Future and Billion Dollar Lessons "...if you are interested in 'thinking in systems,' this book is for you. The 'On Star' story demonstrates to you how the initial product-centered thinking was proselytized to 'thinking in systems'." -- John Pourdehnad Visiting Professor, IESE Business School and Faulty of Systems Leadership, Thomas Jefferson University "In writing Systems Thinking Decision-Making Process: How to Avoid Burnt Toast, Vince Barabba is addressing the limits of knowledge management systems which enable 'organizations as usual' to share best practices on how to scrape toast faster and cheaper... The examples shared by Vince, from his first-hand experiences in corporate America or his services as a marketing consultant, contribute invaluable clarity to his goal of providing a "sketch of an Inquiry Center Learning and Support System" for those with the ambition to lead efforts to work smarter, not harder, firmly against the grain of 'organizations as usual'..." -- Bill Bellows, Ph.D., President, InThinking Services Adjunct Professor, California State University, Northridge and Southern Utah University Advisory Council Member and Former Deputy Director, The W. Edwards Deming Institute (R) "In his 'last book', Vince weaves the experiences and learning of a lifetime into whole cloth of insight and wisdom. He helps us to find relevant information from a rapidly changing world and apply it to making good decisions. This is a masterpiece of knowledge presented in a very entertaining way." -- Carl Spetzler Chairman, Strategic Decisions Group International LLC "This is a truly inspiring and mind changing book directly relevant for our times... Vince has shown through his remarkable work that business and government are a force for good when leaders think long term, work with, not against nature, and use their influence and resources for the many, not the few..." -- Osvald Bjelland Founder and President, Xynteo Founder, The Performance Theatre Foundation

This book explores clustering operations in the context of social networks and consensus-reaching paths that take into account non-cooperative behaviors. This book focuses on the two key issues in large-scale group decision-making: clustering and consensus building. Clustering aims to reduce the dimension of a large group. Consensus reaching requires that the divergent individual opinions of the decision makers converge to the group opinion. This book emphasizes the similarity of opinions and social relationships as important measurement attributes of clustering, which makes it different from traditional clustering methods with single attribute to divide the original large group without requiring a combination of the above two attributes. The proposed consensus models focus on the treatment of non-cooperative behaviors in the consensus-reaching process and explores the influence of trust loss on the consensus-reaching process.The logic behind is as follows: firstly, a clustering algorithm is adopted to reduce the dimension of decision-makers, and then, based on the clusters' opinions obtained, a consensus-reaching process is carried out to obtain a decision result acceptable to the majority of decision-makers. Graduates and researchers in the fields of management science, computer science, information management, engineering technology, etc., who are interested in large-scale group decision-making and consensus building are potential audience of this book. It helps readers to have a deeper and more comprehensive understanding of clustering analysis and consensus building in large-scale group decision-making.