1. Introduction to Bayesian Methods in Reliability.- 1. Why Bayesian Methods?.- 1.1 Sparse data.- 1.2 Decision problems.- 2. Bayes' Theorem.- 3. Examples from a Safety Study on Gas transmission Pipelines.- 3.1 Estimating the probability of the development of a big hole.- 3.2 Estimating the leak rate of a gas transmission pipeline.- 4. Conclusions.- References.- 2. An Overview of the Bayesian Approach.- 1. Background.- 2. Probability Concepts.- 3. Notation.- 4. Reliability Concepts and Models.- 5. Forms of Data.- 6. Statistical Problems.- 7. Review of Non-Bayesian Statistical Methods.- 8. Desiderata for Decision-Oriented Statistical Methodology.- 9. Decision-Making.- 10. Degrees of Belief as Probabilities.- 11. Bayesian Statistical Philosophy.- 12. A Simple Illustration of Bayesian Learning.- 13. Bayesian Approaches to Typical Statistical Questions.- 14. Assessment of Prior Densities.- 15. Bayesian Inference for some Univariate Probability Models.- 16. Approximate Analysis under Great Prior Uncertainty.- 17. Problems Involving many Parameters: Empirical Bayes.- 18. Numerical Methods for Practical Bayesian Statistics.- References.- 3. Reliability Modelling and Estimation.- 1. Non-Repairable Systems.- 1.1 Introduction.- 1.2 Describing reliability.- 1.3 Failure time distributions.- 2. Estimation.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 Classical methods.- 2.3 Bayesian methods.- 3. Reliability estimation.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Binomial sampling.- 3.3 Pascal sampling.- 3.4 Poisson sampling.- 3.5 Hazard rate estimation.- References.- 4. Repairable Systems and Growth Models.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Good as New: the Renewal Process.- 3. Estimation.- 4. The Poisson Process.- 5. Bad as old: the Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process.- 6. Classical Estimation.- 7. Exploratory Analysis.- 8. The Duane Model.- 9. Bayesian Analysis.- References.- 5. The Use of Expert Judgement in Risk Assessment.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Independence Preservation.- 3. The Quality of Experts' Judgement.- 4. Calibration Sets and Seed Variables.- 5. A Classical Model.- 6. Bayesian Models.- 7. Some Experimental Results.- References.- 6. Forecasting Software Reliability.- 1. Introduction.- 2. The Software Reliability Growth Problem.- 3. Some Software Reliability Growth Models.- 3.1 Jelinski and Moranda (JM).- 3.2 Bayesian Jelinski-Moranda (BJM).- 3.3 Littlewood (L).- 3.4 Littlewood and Verrall (LV).- 3.5 Keiller and Littlewood (KL).- 3.6 Weibull order statistics (W).- 3.7 Duane (D).- 3.8 Goel-Okumoto (GO).- 3.9 Littlewood NHPP (LNHPP).- 4. Examples of Use.- 5. Analysis of Predictive Quality.- 5.1 The u-plot.- 5.2 The y-plot, and scatter plot of u's.- 5.3 Measures of 'noise'.- 5.3.1 Braun statistic.- 5.3.2 Median variability.- 5.3.3 Rate variability.- 5.4 Prequential likelihood.- 6. Examples of Predictive Analysis.- 7. Adapting and Combining Predictions; Future Directions.- 8 Summary and Conclusions.- Acknowledgements.- References.- References.- Author index.

Includes 10 handy dos and don'ts of using management models * Want new ways of looking at old problems? * Need a range of management decision-making tools at your fingertips? * Only want what you need to know, rather than reams of theory? With indispensible models that will help you make the most out of every business opportunity, this book tells you what you need to know, fast.

We say that someone has charisma when they can attract, inspire and influence people through their personal qualities. We think that this is a special power some fortunate individuals have that makes them able to affect and influence others at a deep emotional level, to communicate effectively with them and make interpersonal connections. But very few of us understand what charisma really is. It is not widely-applauded magnetism or shallow charm. Rather, it's the deep-rooted powerful charisma that helps people deliver incredible results. This charisma is a learnable skill. It's the result of developing specific behaviours, which are proven to improve not only how people feel about you, but which will help others change their own behaviours and achieve success. Charismatic Leadership will show you how to be a powerful influencer with your peers, your colleagues and your customers. You'll learn why charisma is a vital asset in any organization, understand its essential components, find out how to grow your charismatic presence and discover why you need the companion skills of coaching, problem-solving and empathy. Using charisma effectively helps everyone perform at a high level. This book will show you how.

LEADING FROM PURPOSE IS TRANSFORMING LEADERSHIP AT THE WORLD'S TOP COMPANIES 'I can't imagine leading Ben & Jerry's without it' Jostein Solheim, CEO of Ben & Jerry's 'Makes lives deeper, organisations stronger and society more cohesive.' Paul Polman, CEO, Unilever 'Purpose has really enhanced my impact as a leader.' Ralph Hamers, CEO of ING Bank 'My purpose has acted as a guiding light to help me centre and ground myself to lead effectively when it's needed most.' Loren Shuster, Chief People Officer at LEGO Drawing on ten years of experience working with more than 10,000 executives from companies around the world, Nick Craig takes you on a revelatory journey to understand your purpose, find clarity and focus and lead with inspiration. When uncovered, purpose becomes our most fundamental guiding principle. Explaining where true purpose lies and demystifying where it doesn't, Craig offers the methods through which anyone can find their purpose. He identifies three pathways that will assess where you are going with your purpose and where you should be going. In Leading from Purpose, Craig shares unique stories to show how top leaders are energized by their purpose, finding in it the confidence they need to properly evaluate high-stakes decisions and take the optimal action. Accessible, methodical and eminently practical, this book offers the comprehensive toolbox with which everyone - whether a c-suite executive or a behind-the-scenes office worker - can live out their purpose and achieve success on their own terms. With a foreword by Daring Greatly author Brene Brown.

The success of any organization or individual depends upon making good decisions, arrived at through the use of a sound judgment. Too often, this elusive characteristic has been misperceived as an unchangeable, entrenched element of our character, over which we have little control. In fact, judgment is an art - one that can be honed, developed and mastered. In The Art of Judgment, John Adair draws upon his decades of experience and expertise to provide a practical and fascinating insight into how you can harness the full potential of your judgment. These in-depth methods are summarised in 10 key principles, which include: - Thinking to Some Purpose - Experience - the Seedbed - Truth - the Leading Star - How to Share Decisions - The Role of Values With the divisiveness of public discourse and the complexities of modern business, it is more difficult than ever to be sure that you're making the right decision. Adair provides a clear pathway to improving your judgment, beginning with an exploration of the machinations behind decision-making, before demonstrating how you can develop a stronger understanding and control of your judgment. This is an essential companion for any business leaders interested in making the best decisions for them and their organization. Good judgment is the secret behind any success, and also has the potential to accelerate one's own career. This book provides insight, expertise and inspiration for anyone looking to cultivate and develop their art of judgment.

THE EYE TEST is a necessary course correction, a call for a more balanced, personal approach to problem-solving. Award-winning journalist Chris Jones makes the case for the human element-for what smart, practiced, devoted people can bring to situations that have proved resistant to analytics. Jones shares what he's learned from an army of extraordinary talents, including some of the best doctors, executives, athletes, meteorologists, magicians, designers, astrophysicists, and detectives in the world. There are lessons in their mastery. Of course, there is a place for numbers in decision-making. No baseball player should be judged by his jawline. But the analytics revolution sparked by Michael Lewis's Moneyball now threatens to replace one kind of absurdity with another. We have developed a blind faith in the machine, the way a driver overly reliant on his GPS might be led off the edge of a cliff. Not all statistical analysis is sound. Algorithms aren't infallible, and spreadsheets aren't testaments. Trust in them too much, and they risk becoming instruments of destruction rather than understanding. Worse, data's supremacy in our daily lives has led to a dangerous strain of anti-expertise: the belief that every problem is a math problem, and anyone given access to the right information will find the right answer. That taste doesn't matter, experience doesn't matter, creativity doesn't matter. That we can't believe our eyes, no matter how much they've seen. THE EYE TEST serves as a reminder that if beauty is less of a virtue in the age of analytics, a good eye still is. This book is a celebration of our greatest beholders-and an absorbing, inspiring guide for how you might become one, too.

Doug Hall shares data-proven methods that can make sales, marketing, and business development measurably more effective.

Failure is always an option... For more than 50 years, NASA's Mission Control has been known for two things: perfect decision making in extreme situations and producing generations of steely-eyed missile men and women who continue that tradition. A key to that legacy of brilliant performance is a particular brand of leadership, especially at the working level in Mission Control. Take the ultimate insiders look at the leadership values and culture that created the best team on this planet. Paul Sean Hill was responsible for NASA's Mission Operations support for manned space flight from 2007-2011. In this candid book he shows that the secret to Mission Control's success has never been rocket science and that the real practice of perfect decision making can be applied to any organisation or team. By demonstrating how his Mission Control team nurtured a culture which has delivered impossible wins for decades, Hill provides a guide for all leaders to boost their company's performance at all levels. Whether failure means cost and schedule overruns, quality reduction, loss of market share, bankruptcy - or putting someone's life a risk, how we lead can determine whether even small mistakes are dealt with or are left to snowball out of control and destroy an enterprise. Discover how to take leadership from the Mission Control Room to your boardroom and beyond, and achieve this out-of-this-world leadership environment in your team.

Your brewery is much more than just a small business-it's the fulfillment of your dream to share a love for quality craft beer and beverages. Build success from start-up to expansion with a solid foundation of finance principles geared specifically toward small beverage producers. Learn how to build and interpret financial reports and create basic pro-forma financial statements for launching a brewery, purchasing additional equipment, or determining a new location. Explore the various business models available to you as a craft brewery. Discover pricing models that maximize your profits. Learn how to build a budget and how to use it to hold staff accountable. This book is written to teach complex topics in simple terms. Written in an accessible style, it will help brewery owners and their staff understand the importance of a strong financial foundation. The insights and results-oriented content will help you run a more successful brewery.

Knowledge management metrics are one of the weakest areas of practice in the field. Overwhelmingly, the literature that exists focuses on case studies and incidents of metrics, rather than approaching the concept holistically. Addressing this lack, expert authors Alexeis Garcia-Perez, Farah Gheriss and Denise Bedford come together to supply a fundamental discussion of measurement cultures and philosophy, types of metrics, and how to use metrics to grow an organization. They offer a guide for knowledge management professionals to report on progress against goals and targets in terms that are understandable and comparable to their organizational peers, enabling professionals from across businesses to communicate with metrics and engage in wider discussion about the process of achieving organizational visions. Providing practical guidance for identifying different types of measurements and metrics, as well as methods for defining and collection information about metrics, this is an essential book for knowledge management professionals and researchers on the path to improving metric literacy across their organizations.

Action Learning - Activity Based Costing - Adhocracy - Agility - Balanced Scorecard - Benchmarking - Boston Matrix - Broadbanding - Channel Management - Core Competencies - Core Values - Crisis Management - Customer Relationship Management - Decision Theory - Discounted Cash Flow - Downsizing - E-commerce - Emotional Intelligence - Employability Empowerment - Four Ps of Marketing - Game Theory - Intellectual Capital Interim Management - Just-in-Time - Kaizen - Kepener-Tregoe - Knowledge Management - Leadership Theory - Lean Production - Learning Organization - Managerial Grid - Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs - Matrix Model Outsourcing - Porter's Five Forces - Psychological Contract Re-engineering - Relationship Marketing - Ringi - Scenario Planning - Scientific Management - Seven S Framework - Shamrock Organization - Shareholder Value - Strategic Inflection Points - Strategic Management Succession Planning - Supply Chain Management - Theories X Y (& Z) Thought Leadership - 60 Degree Feedback - TQM - Transnational Corporation - Value Innovation - Virtual Organization

Revolutionize meetings! Over 20,000 copies sold - the easy-to-use guide for running democratic meetings of any size The key to promoting true democracy in meetings is clear, easy-to-understand rules of order that support the right of each member to participate fully and equally, and the right of the majority to make decisions while respecting minority rights. An alternative to Robert's Rules of Order and other complicated and unwieldy guides, Democratic Rules of Order is the guide for the rest of us. It lays out clear, concise, easy-to-use rules for governing meetings from clubs and non profits to formal meetings. Benefits include: A complete set of laws for governing meetings Can be read in an hour Plain language, free of complex protocol and jargon to enable equal and efficient participation Tested and honed through thousands of successful meetings Adoptable as the official rules of order for meetings of any size Allows informality, including decisions by consensus, but ensures formality when needed A sample meeting that uses all the rules plus answers to 31 common questions. Now in its tenth edition, and with over 20,000 copies sold, Democratic Rules of Order will produce fair, efficient, and harmonious decisions in meetings of any size or complexity.

Make Better Decisions, Leverage New Opportunities, and Automate Decisioning at Scale Prescriptive analytics is more directly linked to successful decision-making than any other form of business analytics. It can help you systematically sort through your choices to optimize decisions, respond to new opportunities and risks with precision, and continually reflect new information into your decisioning process. In Prescriptive Analytics, analytics expert Dr. Dursun Delen illuminates the field's state-of-the-art methods, offering holistic insight for both professionals and students. Delen's end-to-end, all-inclusive approach covers optimization, simulation, multi-criteria decision-making methods, inference- and heuristic-based decisioning, and more. Balancing theory and practice, he presents intuitive conceptual illustrations, realistic example problems, and real-world case studies-all designed to deliver knowledge you can use. Discover where prescriptive analytics fits and how it improves decision-making Identify optimal solutions for achieving an objective within real-world constraints Analyze complex systems via Monte-Carlo, discrete, and continuous simulations Apply powerful multi-criteria decision-making and mature expert systems and case-based reasoning Preview emerging techniques based on deep learning and cognitive computing

This title was first published in 2000: The International Library of Management is a comprehensive core reference series comprised of the most significant and influential articles by the leading authorities in the management studies field. Volumes in the series include a full-length introduction from the editor, an internationally recognized expert, which provides an authoritative guide to the selection of essays chosen and to the wider field itself. The collections of essays is both international and interdisciplinary in scope and provides an entry point for investigating the myriad of study within the discipline.

"Rational Decision Making for Managers" provides students with a basic understanding of quantitative and analytical techniques that managers use to make complex business decisions and helps them to recognise when they are appropriate. Sarah Keast and Mike Towler also show the characteristics of the decisions that can be informed by the use of each technique, thereby guiding the reader in their choice.

"Rational Decision Making for Managers" features: separate chapters on robustness analysis and game theorya strong contextual discussion and clear structurea concise mathematical appendix

The book is essential reading for students studying business decision making, quantitative methods and business research methods.

How does your team react to change? Do they dig in with their heels to resist it or do they welcome it with open arms? In this 1-hour read, Mac Anderson and Tom Feltenstein take you through each step of change - from the realization that change is a good thing, to implementing that change in every department and across all channels. You may not have a choice about change, but you can choose how you and your team react to it. Change Is Good...You Go First provides the motivation you and your team need to embrace change. The book includes 21 ways to inspire change and objectives to help your team achieve its goals.

Problems block and slow down your progress; here's how to overcome them-simply, efficiently and effectively. This book offers straightforward, empowering science-based solutions to problems, big and small, at work or in life. It takes a never before seen approach to problem solving, powerfully combining lessons from cognitive science, established problem-solving theory and vast practical experience. It includes a radical new approach to analysing problems: The Problem Matrix. This will transform your approach to problems, challenge your thinking and help you develop new, positive, solution-focussed mindsets for the long-term.

Evidence-Based Decision-Making: How to Leverage Available Data and Avoid Cognitive Biases examines how a wide range of factual evidence, primarily derived from a variety of data available to organizations, can be used to improve the quality of business decision-making, by helping decision makers circumvent the various cognitive biases that adversely impact how we all think. The book is built on the following premise: During the past decade, the new 'data world' emerged, in which the rush to develop competencies around business analytics and data science can be characterized as nothing less than the new commercial arms race. The ever-expanding volume and variety of data are well known, as are the great advances in data processing/analytics, data visualization, and related information production-focused capabilities. Yet, comparatively little effort has been devoted to how the informational products of business analytics and data science are 'consumed' or used in the organizational decision-making processes, as the available evidence shows that only some of that information is used to drive some business decisions some of the time. Evidence-Based Decision-Making details an explicit process describing how the universe of available and applicable evidence, which includes organizational and other data, industry benchmarks, scientific studies, and professional experience, can be assessed, amalgamated, and funneled into an objective driver of key business decisions. Introducing key concepts in relation to data and evidence, and the history of evidence-based management, this new and extremely topical book will be essential reading for researchers and students of data analytics as well as those working in the private and public sectors, and in the voluntary sector.

Everyone is capable of accomplishing extraordinary things. If you share this belief, then this book was written for you. In business and in life, handing over the reins to others is inevitable. Everyone will eventually leave their team, retire from being the CEO, or see their kids leave home and lead their own lives. Leading from the Jumpseat enables us to embrace this inevitability. Leading from the Jumpseat is a metaphor for how we can choose to lead. It's about the journey we take so we can hand over control to others, who are then equipped to continue forward. Peter Docker, co-author of Find Your Why and formerly a founding Igniter at Simon Sinek Inc., delivers the message that leadership is about lifting people up and giving them the space they need so that, when the time is right, they can take the lead. Drawing on his 25-year career in the Royal Air Force, and over 14 years spent partnering with businesses around the world, Peter's goal is to inspire others to Lead from the Jumpseat. Jumpseat Leadership is a way of interacting with people that will enhance performance in any given situation - during normal business, times of crisis, and life in general. Becoming a Jumpseat Leader takes practice and this book is your practical guide to handing over control.

In every decision problem there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis science uses the best available evidence to assess what we know while it is carefully intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we do not know in the evaluation of decision choices and decision outcomes. The field of risk analysis science continues to expand and grow and the second edition of Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty responds to this evolution with several significant changes. The language has been updated and expanded throughout the text and the book features several new areas of expansion including five new chapters. The book's simple and straightforward style-based on the author's decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator-strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. Features: Details the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner Provides sufficient detail to empower professionals in any discipline to become risk practitioners Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management Describes dozens of quantitative and qualitative risk assessment tools in a new chapter Practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes is found in a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty Practical methods for helping risk professionals to tell their risk story are the focus of a new chapter Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis As before, this book continues to appeal to professionals who want to learn and apply risk science in their own professions as well as students preparing for professional careers. This book remains a discipline free guide to the principles of risk analysis that is accessible to all interested practitioners. Files used in the creation of this book and additional exercises as well as a free student version of Palisade Corporation's Decision Tools Suite software are available with the purchase of this book. A less detailed introduction to the risk analysis science tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication is found in Primer of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-31228-9.

Just making a decision can be hard enough, but how do you begin to judge whether it's the right one? Chip and Dan Heath, authors of #1 New York Times best-seller Switch, show you how to overcome your brain's natural shortcomings. In Decisive, Chip and Dan Heath draw on decades of psychological research to explain why we so often get it very badly wrong - why our supposedly rational brains are frequently tripped up by powerful biases and wishful thinking. At the same time they demonstrate how relatively easy it is to avoid the pitfalls and find the best answers, offering four simple principles that we can all learn and follow. In the process, they show why it is that experts frequently make mistakes. They demonstrate the perils of getting trapped in a narrow decision frame. And they explore people's tendency to be over-confident about how their choices will unfold. Drawing on case studies as diverse as the downfall of Kodak and the inspiring account of a cancer survivor, they offer both a fascinating tour through the workings of our minds and an invaluable guide to making smarter decisions. Winner in the Practical Manager category of the CMI Management Book of the Year awards 2014.