Chip and Dan Heath, the bestselling authors of Switch and Made to Stick, tackle one of the most critical topics in our work and personal lives: how to make better decisions. Research in psychology has revealed that our decisions are disrupted by an array of biases and irrationalities: We're overconfident. We seek out information that supports us and downplay information that doesn't. We get distracted by short-term emotions. When it comes to making choices, it seems, our brains are flawed instruments. Unfortunately, merely being aware of these shortcomings doesn't fix the problem, any more than knowing that we are nearsighted helps us to see. The real question is: How can we do better? In Decisive, the Heaths, based on an exhaustive study of the decision-making literature, introduce a four-step process designed to counteract these biases. Written in an engaging and compulsively readable style, Decisive takes readers on an unforgettable journey, from a rock star's ingenious decision-making trick to a CEO's disastrous acquisition, to a single question that can often resolve thorny personal decisions. Along the way, we learn the answers to critical questions like these: How can we stop the cycle of agonizing over our decisions? How can we make group decisions without destructive politics? And how can we ensure that we don't overlook precious opportunities to change our course? Decisive is the Heath brothers' most powerful-and important-book yet, offering fresh strategies and practical tools enabling us to make better choices. Because the right decision, at the right moment, can make all the difference.

Focus on SAP business analytics business gains, key features, and implementation. The book includes example implementations of SAP business analytics, the challenges faced, and the solutions implemented. SAP Business Analytics explains both the strategy and technical implementation for gathering and analyzing all the information pertaining to an organization. Key features of the book are: A 360-degree view of an organization's data and the methods to gather and analyze that data The strategies that need to be in place to gather relevant data from disparate systems Details about the SAP business analytics suite of products The technical implementations used to gather data from disparate systems such as ERP and CRM Real business cases as examples Analytics is the driving force in today's business, be it healthcare, marketing, telecommunications, or retail and hence the most vital part of any organization's strategy. What You'll Learn Gain an understanding of business analytics in general Absorb the technical details of the SAP business analytics suite of products Discover the challenges faced during an enterprise-level analytics project implementation Learn the key points to be kept in mind during the technical implementation of an SAP business analytics project Who This Book Is For Analytics strategists, BI managers, BI architects, business analysts, and BI developers.

Medical decision making has evolved in recent years, as more complex problems are being faced and addressed based on increasingly large amounts of data. In parallel, advances in computing power have led to a host of new and powerful statistical tools to support decision making. Simulation-based Bayesian methods are especially promising, as they provide a unified framework for data collection, inference, and decision making. In addition, these methods are simple to implement and can help to address the most pressing practical and ethical concerns arising in medical decision making.

• Provides an overview of the necessary methodological background, including Bayesian inference, Monte Carlo simulation, and utility theory.
• Driven by three real applications, presented as extensively detailed case studies.
• Case studies include simplified versions of the analysis, to approach complex modelling in stages.
• Features coverage of meta-analysis, decision analysis, and comprehensive decision modeling.
• Accessible to readers with only a basic statistical knowledge.

800-CEO-READ BESTSELLER Featured in Fortune, Harvard Business Review, and Entrepreneur, Go Long is "mandatory reading for the CEOs and boards of all public companies," according to David M. Rubenstein, co-founder and co-executive chairman of The Carlyle Group. The lifespans of companies are growing shorter each day. Why do some companies thrive and grow, while others fail? Inspired by the CEO Academy, the annual off-the-record gathering of chief executives organized by the authors, reveals how some of the world's most prominent business leaders resisted short-term pressures to successfully manage their organizations for the long term, and in turn, aim to create more jobs, more satisfied customers, and more shareholder wealth. In Go Long, authors Dennis Carey, Brian Dumaine, Michael Useem, and Rodney Zemmel take you behind the scenes to witness the business decisions that are enabling leading organizations to outsmart and outlast the competition. Why did CEO Larry Merlo allow CVS to take a $2 billion hit-on purpose? How did former CEO Alan Mulally maneuver Ford's $48 billion turnaround? How did director Maggie Wilderotter and her fellow board members engage top management to embark on an unusual exercise to help Hewlett Packard Enterprise build a long-term strategy? Why did former CEO Paul Polman turn back to Unilever's original mission of leading with a purpose to fuel profits? How did former Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg convince his investors and board to allow him to make a $150 billion bet? How did former CEO George Buckley find a way to address investor calls for 3M to spend less on research and development while still finding a way to innovate? These leaders argue that a short-term mindset might satisfy investors for this quarter or next, but there's a heavy price to be paid. Instead, they argue, long-term thinking is your best short-term strategy. "Considering the enormous harm that short-term investing has done not only to companies, but to countries as well, this book should be required reading in boardrooms everywhere. A concise, powerful call for responsible, long-term business practices."-Kirkus Reviews "A must-read. If you're looking to build or lead a company that grows consistently not just from quarter to quarter, but year to year ... this book is for you."-Indra Nooyi, Board of Directors, Amazon; former Chairman and CEO, PepsiCo, Inc.

This book is about how models can be developed to represent demand and supply on markets, where the emphasis is on demand models. Its primary focus is on models that can be used by managers to support marketing decisions. Modeling Markets presents a comprehensive overview of the tools and methodologies that managers can use in decision making. It has long been known that even simple models outperform judgments in predicting outcomes in a wide variety of contexts. More complex models potentially provide insights about structural relations not available from casual observations. In this book, the authors present a wealth of insights developed at the forefront of the field, covering all key aspects of specification, estimation, validation and use of models. The most current insights and innovations in quantitative marketing are presented, including in-depth discussion of Bayesian estimation methods. Throughout the book, the authors provide examples and illustrations. This book will be of interest to researchers, analysts, managers and students who want to understand, develop or use models of marketing phenomena.

This book offers a simple introduction to the theory and practice of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) without a pre-requisite for a sophisticated mathematical background. AHP is an intuitive and mathematically simple methodology in the field of multi-criteria decision making in Operational Research (OR). Using Super Decisions v3, the newly developed software by the Creative Decisions Foundations, this book provides a quick and intuitive understanding of AHP using spreadsheet examples and step-by-step software instructions. Super Decisions v3 marks a drastic departure from the previous version 2 in terms of interface and ratings model development. In addition to a concise guide, instructional videos are also available to demonstrate how to use the different features of Super Decisions v3. Most AHP books assume the reader has basic OR mathematical background; however, AHP was developed with the goal that decision makers can take advantage of this methodology without struggling with the mathematics behind it. For this reason, only basic arithmetic knowledge is required from the readers. In conclusion, this book delivers a quick and practical understanding of the AHP methodology that can be useful for corporate executives and decision-makers in all fields.

"A terrific book!" —David A. Nadler, chairman, Delta Consulting Group

Tackle the organizational issues related to implementing teams. Learn new designs to support the knowledge work components of organizations. Drawing on over fifteen years of research and consulting with such companies as Honeywell, Hewlett-Packard, Pacific Bell, General Mills, Pratt and Whitney, Pfizer, and Texas Instruments, the authors shows you how to create new organization designs that empower teams so that they make a real difference.

You'll discover how to:

• Design new work teams
• Identify new roles and responsibilities
• Manage team performance
• Create an empowering team environment

The most difficult part of making decisions in the health care field on all levels (national, regional, institutional, patient) is linked to the very complexity of the system itself, to the intrinsic uncertainty involved and its dynamic nature. This requires not only the ability to analyze and interpret a large amount of information but also arrange it so that it becomes a cognitive base for appropriate decision-making. Moreover, decisions in the health care field are subjected to many challenges and constraints: fast change and uncertain outcomes, aging population, increasing citizen expectations, equity considerations and limited resources. Operations research, statistical and economic-related quantitative methods supply these decisions making tools and methodology. The contributed book presents a collection of applications to concrete situations detailing the problem area, the methodology employed, the implementation and results. Each topic addressed in the book will be structured in such a way that an interdisciplinary and wide audience will be able to use the materials presented. As an example the book chapters will address health policies issues, planning health services, epidemiology and disease modelling, home-care modelling, logistics in health care, capacity planning, quality and appropriateness.

Who makes the important decisions in your organization? Strategy, product development, budgeting, compensation--such key decisions typically are made by company leaders. That's what bosses are for, right? But maybe the boss isn't the best person to make the call. That's the conclusion Dennis Bakke came to, and he used it to build AES into a Fortune 200 global power company with 27,000 people in 27 countries. He used it again to create Imagine Schools, the largest non-profit charter-school network in the U.S. As a student at Harvard Business School, Bakke made hundreds of decisions using the case-study method. He realized two things: decision-making is the best way to develop people; and that shouldn't stop at business school. So Bakke spread decision-making throughout his organizations, fully engaging people at all levels. Today, Bakke has given thousands of people the freedom and responsibility to make decisions that matter. In The Decision Maker, a leadership fable loosely based on Bakke's experience, the New York Times bestselling author shows us how giving decisions to the people closest to the action can transform any organization. The idea is simple. The results are powerful. When leaders put real control into the hands of their people, they tap incalculable potential. The Decision Maker, destined to be a business classic, holds the key to unlocking the potential of every person in your organization.

Political speeches don't just mirror what transpires in the world; they have the potential to change people's minds, move them into action, reinforce existing assumptions, and reshape cultures. They define public participation and are the 'nexus points' of disparate discourses, both nationally and globally. Because of their power to sustain the status quo or effect change, speeches warrant public attention and careful study. To examine them is to understand how they are crafted, what elements they possess, and how these elements come together to affect their audience. This volume analyzes selected speeches delivered by Benigno 'Noynoy' Simeon C. Aquino III, President of the Republic of the Philippines from 2010 to 2016. They are speeches that have been used to shape public perception, gain support, and build identification between Aquino's presidency and his audience. By mobilizing the concepts of presidential image, myth, metaphors, and rhetorical citizenship, readers are guided through a process of examining the rhetorical trajectory of the Philippine presidency, how a president's discourse has attempted to shape Philippine socio-political reality, and how the evolving milieu the president has found himself in shapes his discourse. The essays in this volume will hopefully generate a discussion not only on the place of President Benigno Aquino's rhetoric in Philippine presidential history, but also of how rhetorical practices in an evolving democratic society in Asia can extend and expand theorizations of presidential rhetoric and political communication at large.

WINNER: Business Book Awards 2022 - Leadership Your biggest asset in leadership is you. How can you expect people to trust and believe in you, if you aren't truthful and don't embrace your whole self at work? There is a need for a new kind of leadership; one that bleeds personality and rings true to employees and customers alike who crave authenticity. You Lead argues that business leaders deliver superior results, communities of engagement both inside and outside of the company and true values-driven success when they are themselves and come across as genuine. Bestselling author, Minter Dial, shows readers how embracing your whole self at work encourages people to also be themselves, seek true fulfilment at work and merge the personal and professional to become true examples of what you stand for. You Lead is a call to arms to leaders to stop pretending to be who they are not, and play on their uniqueness and strengths, to allow people to do the same and develop a culture of authenticity and purpose. With practical advice, real-life stories and a simple framework, this book shows you how you can: - Be yourself, lead by example and merge the professional and personal - Stand for something and allow people to develop true purpose at work - Allow a community to flourish through the right kind of governance model - Radiate your purpose through employees and customers alike for long-term performance

These conference proceedings focus on the topics of data-driven decision-making, stochastic decision-making, fuzzy decision-making and their applications in real-life problems. Beijing University of Chemical Technology organized IFDS2016, the 4th International Forum on Decision Sciences, with the theme "Data-Driven Decision-Making." The proceedings collect 84 selected papers presenting cutting-edge modeling and solution methods and include numerous practical case studies, making it a valuable resource for students, researchers and practitioners working in the fields of decision science, operations research, management science and engineering.

This Handbook brings together experts in the field of leadership to provide insights into methods for leadership research. It serves to motivate them to use new research methods to further our knowledge of the leadership field. Illustrating novel approaches to research with sample questions and applications to the field of leadership, this comprehensive and accessible Handbook covers key methodologies in leadership research today, as well as introducing methods that will be invaluable in the future. With chapters written by established leadership scholars, the Handbook of Methods in Leadership Research is arranged to cover three core areas of research: measurement and design, quantitative analytic approaches, and qualitative analytic approaches. The book provides an accessible overview and starting point to discover new methods. All chapters are well researched and provide references for those who want to delve deeper into the topics covered. The volume ends with a summary of tips for each method presented. This book will be an indispensable resource for leadership students, scholars, and practitioners alike, to inspire their future research but also to support their understanding of the quality of research carried out by others. Contributors: C.-H. Chang, S.H. Chong, A.R. Cook, A.J. Dixon, E. Djurdjevic, R.J. Foti, V. Gochmann, J. Gooty, R.J. Hall, R. Ilies, R.E. Johnson, M. Jokisaari, R.B. Kline, M. Lewis, W.-D. Li, R.G. Lord, M.E. McCusker, B. Meyer, P. Neves, S. Ohly, M. Pina e Cunha, A. Rego, E.F. Rietzschel, D. Rus, J. Schilling, B. Schyns, W.K. Smith, S. Trichas, W. Wang, J.M. Webb, B. Wisse, F.J. Yammarino

This book offers a simple introduction to the fundamentals and applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) without a pre-requisite for a sophisticated mathematical background. It provides a quick and intuitive understanding of the methodology using spreadsheet examples and explains in a step-by-step fashion how to use Super Decisions, a freely available software developed by the Creative Decisions Foundations. The book is intended to be a resource for decision makers with little or no exposure to the field of Operations Research (OR); however, the book can be used as a very gentle introduction to the AHP methodology and/or as an AHP hands-on supplement for standard OR textbooks. AHP is an intuitive and mathematically simple methodology in the field of multi-criteria decision making. Because of this, most AHP books assume the reader has basic OR mathematical background. However, AHP simplicity suggests that decision makers from all disciplines can take advantage of the methodology without struggling with the mathematics behind it. To fulfill this need, this book delivers a quick and practical understanding of the method that can be useful for corporate executives.

"Artful scenario spinning is a form of convergent thinking about divergent futures. It ensures that you are not always right about the future but--better--that you are almost never wrong about the future. The technology is powerful, simple, and enjoyable, and so is Schwartza s book." --Stewart Brand What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life--bottom--line numbers, for instance--but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories--scenarios--and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all--new Usera s Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the worlda s leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.

Your biggest asset in leadership is you. How can you expect people to trust and believe in you, if you aren't truthful and don't embrace your whole self at work? There is a need for a new kind of leadership; one that bleeds personality and rings true to employees and customers alike who crave authenticity. You Lead argues that business leaders deliver superior results, communities of engagement both inside and outside of the company and true values-driven success when they are themselves and come across as genuine. Bestselling author, Minter Dial, shows readers how embracing your whole self at work encourages people to also be themselves, seek true fulfilment at work and merge the personal and professional to become true followers of what you stand for. You Lead is a call to arms to leaders to stop pretending to be who they are not, and play on their uniqueness and strengths, to allow people to do the same and develop a culture of authenticity and purpose. Learn how you can: - Be yourself, lead by example and merge the professional and personal - Stand for something and allow people to develop true purpose at work - Allow a community to flourish through the right kind of governance model - Radiate your purpose through employees and customers alike for long-term performance

Learn how to take risks, thrive and build your dream career. 'Sukhinder is one of Silicon Valley's most well-respected leaders. Her unique style of authenticity, optimism and hustle will help anyone unlock their career potential' - Eric Schmidt, former chairman & CEO, Google Each one of us dreams of possibility - in our careers and in our personal lives. But our pursuit of possibility is hamstrung by 'The Myth of the Single Choice' that has led us to believe that one large choice stands between us and success, and that a single failure may topple us should we choose 'wrongly'. We let fear trump possibility: we become paralyzed. Sukhinder Singh Cassidy is one of the most well-respected leaders in Silicon Valley, but her path to success has been far from linear. While she has started three companies including theBoardlist, and has served as president of StubHub, she's also encountered failed choices, misfires, and all other types of pitfalls that she had to learn how to overcome and incorporate into her new path forward. Drawing on her own experience and those of other leaders, Sukhinder shows that when people thrive, it's because their fear of missing out on an opportunity overtakes their fear of failure, and compels them to take action. Better yet, they keep acting, building a fundamental risk-taking muscle that under weighs the importance of any single choice in favour of continually 'choosing'. Choose Possibility is a thrilling and insightful new way to approach risk-taking and achieve lasting success. 'An excellent guide to help anyone learn how to take risks in their own careers and thrive' - Kai-Fu Lee, chairman & CEO, Sinovation Ventures and author of bestseller AI Superpowers

"Outstanding business insights in a work brimming with energy and vitality." -Kirkus Reviews In this visual guide to thriving in the midst of chaos, scientist, entrepreneur and "Reinvention Guru" Dr. Nadya Zhexembayeva brings together the insights from a community of 3000+ "reinventors" to offer a bold new method for business resilience during disruptive times. Running a successful business amidst constant change is overwhelming. Just as we handle one disruption, another crisis looms on the horizon. How do you survive and even thrive? 4-time TEDx speaker Dr. Nadya Zhexembayeva and her global Chief Reinvention Officer community understand the struggle and helped countless companies and leaders deal with change by reinventing their products, processes, and leadership practices. Now she brings to you a powerful blend of cross-disciplinary research and battle-tested tools to help you diagnose, design, and implement a reinvention system that allows your company to stop combatting or resisting change - and instead helps you turn every disruption into your greatest opportunity.

This collection of essays deals with the situated management of risk in a wide variety of organizational settings - aviation, mental health, railway project management, energy, toy manufacture, financial services, chemicals regulation, and NGOs. Each chapter connects the analysis of risk studies with critical themes in organization studies more generally based on access to, and observations of, actors in the field. The emphasis in these contributions is upon the variety of ways in which organizational actors, in combination with a range of material technologies and artefacts, such as safety reporting systems, risk maps and key risk indicators, accomplish and make sense of the normal work of managing risk - riskwork. In contrast to a preoccupation with disasters and accidents after the event, the volume as whole is focused on the situationally specific character of routine risk management work. It emerges that this riskwork is highly varied, entangled with material artefacts which represent and construct risks and, importantly, is not confined to formal risk management departments or personnel. Each chapter suggests that the distributed nature of this riskwork lives uneasily with formalized risk management protocols and accountability requirements. In addition, riskwork as an organizational process makes contested issues of identity and values readily visible. These 'back stage/back office' encounters with risk are revealed as being as much emotional as they are rationally calculative. Overall, the collection combines constructivist sensibilities about risk objects with a micro-sociological orientation to the study of organizations.

A clear, actionable plan to fight frustration at work, make savvier decisions, and avoid costly mistakes when we're short on time, attention, and choices

One of the most frustrating dilemmas for working people today is how to be effective when we feel we don't have time or we're facing non-stop demands. "The Power of Pause" process is a dynamic practice that Nance Guilmartin has taught thousands of people worldwide, equipping them to regain control of thoughts and avoid miscommunications. This tested method helps readers to take a moment to wonder what's called for when we feel we're short on time, attention, temper, or choices. In that instant, we can use a simple method to rewire our overloaded circuits, tap into our "missing-in-action" common sense, and raise our communication intelligence. This process is "not" about slowing down the pace of workday life. It is about enabling anyone who is time-pressed to make savvier choices and avoid costly mistakes.Shows how to exercise leadership skills that save time and strengthen relationshipsOffers a process for learning to engage in productive exchanges rather than attacking or being resigned Enables managers and teams to save time and moneyReveals how to fix problems and achieve goals with less stress

"The" "Power of Pause" methods enable managers and teams across varying industries/any industry to save time and money, fix problems and achieve goals with less stress-even in the face of competition, cultural and language differences, or tight budgets.

Appendices A Rotastore A. l Tabular Results for Different Models A. 2 Tabular Results for Different Algorithms B OptiTrans B. l Input Data B. l. l Input Data Common to all Solution Approaches B. 1. 2 Specific Input Data for the MILP Model and the Column Enumeration Approach B. 1. 3 Specific Input Data for the Heuristic Methods B. 1. 3. 1 Penalty Criteria B. 1. 3. 2 Control Parameters of the OptiTrans Software B. 2 Tabular Results B. 2. 1 Tabular Results for the MILP Model B. 2. 2 Tabular Results for the Heuristic Methods B. 2. 2. 1 Input Data for a Whole Day - Offline Analysis B. 2. 2. 2 Results for CIH and SA References Index Preface This book covers the analysis and development of online algorithms involving exact optimization and heuristic techniques, and their appli- tion to solve two real life problems. The first problem is concerned with a complex technical system: a special carousel based high-speed storage system - Rotastore. It is shown that this logistic problem leads to an NP-hard Batch Presorting Pr- lem (BPSP) which is not easy to solve optimally in offline situations. We consider a polynomial case and develope an exact algorithm for offline situations. Competitive analysis showed that the proposed online - gorithm is 312-competitive. Online algorithms with lookahead improve the online solutions in particular cases. If the capacity constraint on additional storage is neglected the problem has a totally unimodular polyhedron.

The safe and continued functioning of critical infrastructures-such as electricity, natural gas, transportation, and water-is a social imperative. Yet the complex connections between these systems render them increasingly precarious. Furthermore, though we depend so heavily on interconnected infrastructures, we do not fully understand the risks involved in their failure. Emery Roe and Paul R. Schulman argue that designs, policies, and laws often overlook the knowledge and experiences of those who manage these systems on the ground-reliability professionals who have vital insights that would be invaluable to planning. To combat this major blind spot, the athors construct a new theoretical perspective that reveals how to make sense of complex interconnected networks and improve reliability through management, regulation, and political leadership. To illustrate their approach in action, they present a multi-year case study of one of the world's most important "infrastructure crossroads," the San Francisco Bay-Delta. Reliability and Risk advances our understanding of what it takes to ensure the dependability of the intricate-and sometimes hazardous-systems on which we rely every day.