This book offers a comprehensive and readable introduction to modern business and data analytics. It is based on the use of Excel, a tool that virtually all students and professionals have access to. The explanations are focused on understanding the techniques and their proper application, and are supplemented by a wealth of in-chapter and end-of-chapter exercises. In addition to the general statistical methods, the book also includes Monte Carlo simulation and optimization. The second edition has been thoroughly revised: new topics, exercises and examples have been added, and the readability has been further improved. The book is primarily intended for students in business, economics and government, as well as professionals, who need a more rigorous introduction to business and data analytics - yet also need to learn the topic quickly and without overly academic explanations.

In this open-access-book the author concludes that expertise could be the key factor for global and interconnected problems. Experimental results have shown that expertise was a stronger predictor than public information regarding change in behavior and strategy adaption. Identifying non-routine problem-solving experts by efficient online assessments could lead to less volatile system performance, from which all decision-makers could potentially profit.

We live in a complex world. We are constantly challenged by issues that seem at first to be simple, but on reflection turn out to have complicated causes and consequences that can dramatically affect our lives. Often, getting a handle on what the issues are is half the battle. Imagine a tool that can help you unravel the complexity of the decision-making labyrinth, a process that would allow you to:

• Make sense of challenging situations
• Tackle a large number of ideas and their interconnections
• Evaluate and explore values, goals, strategies and actions
• Link strategic thinking to action
• Develop effective action plans in response to the issues
• Create shared meaning and agreement
• Communicate strategies in ways that can be easily understood and acted upon
• Make people understand why an action is important and how they can help
• Help you move from 'winging it' to creating integrated strategies that are robust, both today and in the future, for your firm

Causal mapping is that process. A causal map links your ideas using a few simple rules to reflect causality and so reveal strategic options and goals. Visible Thinking shows you how to create causal maps for individuals and groups, and thereby to capture the power and broad applicability of causal mapping in a business, as well as a personal, context. Visible Thinking will revolutionize the way you approach complex situations and help you decide what you should do, how you should do it and why.

The causal mapping process is illustrated through a series of real cases - from tackling personal problems to strategy-change efforts in business, public and not-for-profit organizations. The cases are usedto present a comprehensive set of process guidelines designed to help you create your own action-oriented causal maps.

'Mapping has worked very well in enabling us get to grips with major decisions. The process brings issues and underlying assumptions to the surface, using the diverse perspectives of all members of the group. Then, most helpfully, it structures contributions so that the group reaches a shared understanding and can see the whole, rich picture.' Ros Micklem, Principal, Cardonald College, Glasgow, Scotland

'Bryson, Ackermann, Eden and Finn beautifully convert the bland noun "map" into the vivid managerial verb, "to map," and in doing so define a unique managerial capability that can provide new sources of order and meaning in chaotic times.' Karl E. Weick, Rensis Likert Distinguished University Professor of Organizational Behavior and Psychology, University of Michigan Business School, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

The Economics of Globally Shared and Public Goods responds to an urgent need to consolidate and refine the economic theories and explanations pertinent to globally shared resources. Making a clear distinction between theories and empirical models, it elucidates the problem of global public goods while incorporating insights from behavioral economics. Its comprehensive and technical review of existing theoretical models and their empirical results illuminate those models in practical applications. Relevant for economists and others working on challenges of globally shared goods such as climate change and global catastrophes, The Economics of Globally Shared and Public Goods provides a path toward greater co-operation and shared successes.

Use of quantitative data, especially in financial markets, may provide rapid results due to the ease-of-use and availability of fast computational software, but this book advises caution and helps to understand and avoid potential pitfalls.It deals with often underestimated issues related to the use of financial quantitative data, such as non-stationarity issues, accuracy issues and modeling issues. It provides practical remedies or ways to develop new calculation methodologies to avoid pitfalls in using data, as well as solutions for risk management issues in financial market. The book is intended to help professionals in financial industry to use quantitative data in a safer way.

This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the "random expert" hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts' assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke's oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.

Do you want to have great ideas? Do you want to break out of the rut of conventional thinking? Would you like to be a genius? Would presenting brilliant ideas help in your job, career and social life? How to be a Brilliant Thinker will help you to achieve all these ideals, by helping you to think in powerful new ways. It shows you how to harness techniques in lateral thinking, analytical thinking, problem analysis, idea generation and other areas so that you become much more creative. You will be able to conceive, evaluate and implement great ideas as well as improve your memory, sell your ideas and win arguments. It is packed with practical methods that you can put to immediate use, backed up by exercises, puzzles, quizzes, graphics and illustrations.

A step-by-step, real-world guide to the use of Value at Risk (VaR) models, this text applies the VaR approach to the measurement of market risk, credit risk, and operational risk. The book describes and critiques proprietary models, illustrating them with practical examples drawn from actual case studies. Explaining the logic behind the economics and statistics, this technically sophisticated yet intuitive text should be an essential resource for all readers operating in a world of risk.

The text uses VaR techniques to analyze loans, derivatives, equity prices, foreign currencies and other financial instruments. Featuring comprehensive coverage of the BIS bank capital requirements, and including the latest proposals for the New Capital Accord, the book also describes the newest application of VaR techniques to operational risk measurement. The text examines the promise and the pitfalls of these risk measurement models, and makes recommendations for future research into this important area.

The Alternative Risk Transfer (ART) market has expanded in recent years to become a vital source of risk solutions and risk capacity and an important mechanism for the creation of integrated corporate risk management programs. The ART market unites the risk management and product development skills of financial institutions, insurers and reinsurers with the capital of global investors to give corporate risk managers the best possible means of managing financial and operating risks. In a time when natural and man-made disasters and financial volatility are constantly present, the need for dependable, equitably priced risk capacity and innovative, holistic risk solutions has never been greater. The ART market, which can supply both, is thus becoming an integral component of the 21st century financial markets. Alternative Risk Transfer, written by a veteran of the banking and insurance industries, provides a practical, detailed and up-to-date review of the topic. The text is divided into four parts, including Risk and the ART market Insurance and Reinsurance Capital Markets Enterprise Risk Management and the Future of ART The book contains numerous worked examples and case studies to

This book helps readers understand the main issues, challenges, strategies, and solution methods in Aggregate Planning (AP), an important part of Supply Chain Management. The design of the book supports readers in the fields of engineering and management to learn practical knowledge about AP in a short look. Moreover, it delivers materials that consider multiple criteria in an AP model that is also required in sustainable developments. In spite of the simple structure of the book, it approaches more complicated mathematical models with single/multiple objective functions to include more practical decisions in AP. It addresses those issues without increasing the complexity of the book to keep it useful for practitioners.

Why do the people in some companies continually dazzle us with their brilliant decisions while those in others make one blunder after another? Do they understand their businesses better? Are they just plain smarter? Or is it all a matter of luck? The answer, says J. Frank Yates, is none of the above. The real key, rarely recognized, is how the leaders manage the company's decision processes— the leaders' decision management practices. Drawing on his thirty years of research and experience as well as scholarship from psychology, economics, statistics, strategy, medicine, and other fields to explain the fundamental nature of business decision problems, Yates highlights the ten cardinal decision issues crucial to managing the decision-making process— and ultimately better company decisions. He covers problems ranging from recognizing whether a decision is actually called for to assuring that a preferred course of action will be implemented. He shows how solid decisions result when managers ensure that deciders resolve every cardinal issue effectively for every decision problem facing the company. He also reveals how, conversely, chronically poor decisions are traceable to managers allowing— or even creating— conditions that encourage deciders to fall short in how they address at least one of those critical issues.

Risk has two sides: underestimating it harms the investor, while overestimating it prevents the implementation of bold business projects. This book explains, from the point of view of the practitioner, the analysis of investment risk - a proper account of adequate risk management strategies - and offers an objective and readable account of the most common investment risk management procedures. It will not be highly mathematical, although mathematical formulae and technical graphs will be used where necessary, and will not rely on excessive technical jargon.

The author also covers guidelines of regulatory institutions that protect the market and the investor: Bank of International Settlements, US SEC and UK FSA.

Scholarly interest in the areas of sustainability, stakeholder relations and corporate social responsibility (CSR) has increased considerably in recent years. In this volume, we take a step back to consider the fundamental questions that underlie and tie research across these areas together. The chapters in this volume cover a wide range of theoretical perspectives grounded in strategy, economics and sociology, employ various methodological approaches, and offer new arguments on the connections that exist between firms' decisions relating to sustainability, CSR, and the governance of their stakeholder relations. The chapters in this volume highlight that business decisions relating to sustainability and CSR are ultimately decisions about the governance of stakeholder relations, and suggest that future work in these areas should consider more closely both the firms and their stakeholders as strategic actors driving firm decisions.

Too often, today’s managers are sold simple solutions to complex problems. But as many soon discover, simplicity is rarely effective in the face of complexity, change and diversity. Despite apparent promise, quick-fix panaceas fail because they are not holistic or creative enough. They focus on parts of the organization rather than the whole, take little account of interaction, and pander to the notion that there is one best solution in all circumstances. As instances of such failure escalate, intelligent managers are increasingly seeking to improve results through Systems Thinking.

Whatever stage you are at in your study of Systems Thinking, this book will help. If you are new to the field then it will serve as a solid introduction. If you are familiar with a few concepts but not with how they can be linked and used by managers, then it will give you a greater understanding of how holistic ideas developed and how to use them in practice. And if you are expert in some approaches but not in others, then it will expand your knowledge and provide you with more choice. In all cases you will achieve competency in creative holism, emerge better equipped to solve complex problems, and ultimately become a more effective Systems Thinking manager.

Perspectives from leaders in decision science at Wharton
Organized in part through Wharton's Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, the book assembles leading researchers from Wharton's business faculty who demonstrate how to apply the latest approaches in decision-making from four perspectives: personal, managerial, negotiator, and consumer. Each chapter describes how decisions are actually made, presents the ideal scenario, and then provides practical suggestions for improvement. The subjects range from when consumers will choose variety, integrating intuition into decisions, and applying game theory and strategic decisions, to decision factors in negotiations and how choices are made about insurance and health care.

This volume introduces a new concept - strategic entrepreneurship - which integrates the insights of entrepreneurship and strategic management.
This volume describes a new concept - strategic entrepreneurship - which fuses the insights of entrepreneurship and strategic management.
The editors have invited the world's finest entrepreneurship and strategic management scholars to contribute chapters on key issues that are influencing research in both fields, and to integrate findings across the two.
Investigates the overlap between entrepreneurship and strategic management in the context of six distinct domains: resources and organizational learning, innovation, alliances and networks, internationalization, strategic leadership, and growth.
The contributors use both traditional and new theoretical approaches in order to further the reader's understanding of wealth creation in the current business environment.

This book will help business and commercial professionals, who are bombarded with information from which they must draw conclusions to make valid business judgements. Underpinned by research and methodology, but carefully and wittily written to avoid the subject falling into the trap of being dull, this book offers a very accessible way for business people to understand their current deciphering processes and to find new ways of interpreting information to make better judgements.

Everyone is capable of accomplishing extraordinary things. If you share this belief, then this book was written for you. In business and in life, handing over the reins to others is inevitable. Everyone will eventually leave their team, retire from being the CEO, or see their kids leave home and lead their own lives. Leading from the Jumpseat enables us to embrace this inevitability. Leading from the Jumpseat is a metaphor for how we can choose to lead. It's about the journey we take so we can hand over control to others, who are then equipped to continue forward. Peter Docker, co-author of Find Your Why and formerly a founding Igniter at Simon Sinek Inc., delivers the message that leadership is about lifting people up and giving them the space they need so that, when the time is right, they can take the lead. Drawing on his 25-year career in the Royal Air Force, and over 14 years spent partnering with businesses around the world, Peter's goal is to inspire others to Lead from the Jumpseat. Jumpseat Leadership is a way of interacting with people that will enhance performance in any given situation - during normal business, times of crisis, and life in general. Becoming a Jumpseat Leader takes practice and this book is your practical guide to handing over control.

Meetings allow us to bring people together to inspire each other, solve problems and make a difference. Yet, we all spend too much time in dull, frustrating meetings where little is achieved and even less is followed up on afterwards. In Hold Successful Meetings, executive coach and former Google leader Caterina Kostoula will change all this. Her unique framework will: - Equip you to hold fewer, more purposeful meetings - Create a creative and inclusive environment - Leave participants inspired and ready to take action Whether virtual or in-person, people will leave your meetings inspired by the value you created together and ready to make an impact. 'I bought this for my whole team at Google!' Reader review

A pioneering neuroscientist reveals how brain science can transform how we think about leadership, team-building, decision-making, innovation, marketing, and more. Leadership is a set of abilities with which a lucky few are born. They're the natural relationship builders, master negotiators and persuaders, and agile and strategic thinkers. The good news for the rest of us is that those abilities can be developed. In The Leader's Brain: Enhance Your Leadership, Build Stronger Teams, Make Better Decisions, and Inspire Greater Innovation with Neuroscience, Wharton Neuroscience Initiative director Michael Platt explains how. Over two decades as a professor and practitioner in neuroscience, psychology, and marketing, Platt's pioneering research has deepened our understanding of how key areas of the brain work-and how that understanding can be applied in business settings. Neuroscience is providing answers to many of leadership's most vexing challenges. In The Leader's Brain, Platt explains: Why two managers, when presented with the same set of information, make very different decisions;Why some companies (Apple) build strong social and emotional connections with their customers and others do not (Samsung); How some of the most significant events in sports history, like the "Miracle on Ice," contain insights for how to build a team; Why even some of the most visionary business leaders can make disastrous decisions, and how to fix that. The Leader's Brain relates findings like these, and many more, to help enhance leadership in an ever-shifting world entering a "new normal." In this fast-reading and engaging guide, you'll gain actionable insights you can put into practice as a leader. You will also learn what's going on in your team's brains when they are working in sync with one another, how you can tweak your message delivery to make sure others hear you, how to encourage greater creativity and innovation, and much more.

The Challenge
Built to Last, the defining management study of the nineties, showed how great companies triumph over time and how long-term sustained performance can be engineered into the DNA of an enterprise from the very beginning.

But what about the company that is not born with great DNA? How can good companies, mediocre companies, even bad companies achieve enduring greatness?

The Study
For years, this question preyed on the mind of Jim Collins. Are there companies that defy gravity and convert long-term mediocrity or worse into long-term superiority? And if so, what are the universal distinguishing characteristics that cause a company to go from good to great?

The Standards
Using tough benchmarks, Collins and his research team identified a set of elite companies that made the leap to great results and sustained those results for at least fifteen years. How great? After the leap, the good-to-great companies generated cumulative stock returns that beat the general stock market by an average of seven times in fifteen years, better than twice the results delivered by a composite index of the world's greatest companies, including Coca-Cola, Intel, General Electric, and Merck.

The Comparisons
The research team contrasted the good-to-great companies with a carefully selected set of comparison companies that failed to make the leap from good to great. What was different? Why did one set of companies become truly great performers while the other set remained only good?

Over five years, the team analyzed the histories of all twenty-eight companies in the study. After sifting through mountains of data and thousands of pages of interviews, Collins and his crew discovered the key determinants of greatness'why some companies make the leap and others don't.

The Findings
The findings of the Good to Great study will surprise many readers and shed light on virtually every area of management strategy and practice. The findings include:

• Level 5 Leaders: The research team was shocked to discover the type of leadership required to achieve greatness.
• The Hedgehog Concept (Simplicity within the Three Circles): To go from good to great requires transcending the curse of competence.
• A Culture of Discipline: When you combine a culture of discipline with an ethic of entrepreneurship, you get the magical alchemy of great results. Technology Accelerators: Good-to-great companies think differently about the role of technology.
• The Flywheel and the Doom Loop: Those who launch radical change programs and wrenching restructurings will almost certainly fail to make the leap.

“Some of the key concepts discerned in the study,” comments Jim Collins, "fly in the face of our modern business culture and will, quite frankly, upset some people.”

Perhaps, but who can afford to ignore these findings?

In an era of globalisation, syndicated lending and consolidation within the banking industry, virtually all industries will have international dealings, whether directly or indirectly, and will therefore be exposed to consequential risks. An understanding of international risk, from that of bank of country failure to the idiosyncrasies of different religious, cultural and regulatory frameworks, is essential for the modern banker. This book gives the reader a thorough understanding of how to calculate, analyse and manage such risks.