This book offers a simple introduction to the fundamentals and applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) without a pre-requisite for a sophisticated mathematical background. It provides a quick and intuitive understanding of the methodology using spreadsheet examples and explains in a step-by-step fashion how to use Super Decisions, a freely available software developed by the Creative Decisions Foundations. The book is intended to be a resource for decision makers with little or no exposure to the field of Operations Research (OR); however, the book can be used as a very gentle introduction to the AHP methodology and/or as an AHP hands-on supplement for standard OR textbooks. AHP is an intuitive and mathematically simple methodology in the field of multi-criteria decision making. Because of this, most AHP books assume the reader has basic OR mathematical background. However, AHP simplicity suggests that decision makers from all disciplines can take advantage of the methodology without struggling with the mathematics behind it. To fulfill this need, this book delivers a quick and practical understanding of the method that can be useful for corporate executives.

A proven decision management methodology for increased profits and lowered risks

"Knowledge Automation: How to Implement Decision Management in Business Processes" describes a simple but comprehensive methodology for decision management projects, which use business rules and predictive analytics to optimize and automate small, high-volume business decisions. It includes Decision Requirements Analysis (DRA), a new method for taking the crucial first step in any IT project to implement decision management: defining a set of business decisions and identifying all the information--business knowledge and data--required to make those decisions.Describes all the stages in automating business processes, from business process modeling down to the implementation of decision servicesAddresses how to use business rules and predictive analytics to optimize and automate small, high-volume business decisionsProposes a simple "top-down" method for defining decision requirements and representing them in a single diagramShows how clear requirements can allow decision management projects to be run with reduced risk and increased profit

Nontechnical and accessible, "Knowledge Automation" reveals how DRA is destined to become a standard technique in the business analysis and project management toolbox.

Future Trends: A Guide to Decision Making and Leadership in Business is the first and only book to link a decision-making and leadership platform to trends pointing to the future. By identifying sixty global, long-term trends and detailing how businesspeople can leverage them in both the short- and long-term, the book provides readers with a powerful body of knowledge unavailable anywhere else. In Future Trends, consultant and futurist Larry Samuel: *Identifies sixty significant and opportunistic global, long-term trends; *Details how businesspeople can leverage each trend in both the short- and long-term via a decision-making and leadership platform; *Helps readers be recognized as a trusted source and "go-to" person in their respective field by becoming more fluent in the future; *Takes a 360-degree, holistic view of tomorrow by examining cultural, economic, political, social, scientific, and technological trends; *Steers clear from here-today-gone-tomorrow things and experiences that comprise most glimpses into the emerging cultural landscape Future Trends is divided into six sections covering Cultural Trends, Economic Trends, Political Trends, Social Trends, Scientific Trends, and Technological Trends. Each section includes ten trends that indicate where the world is heading. Many futurists focus on technology, forgetting the fact that the ways in which people actually live their lives are shaped by many other factors. Future Trends thus takes a 360-degree, holistic view of tomorrow, offering readers a fuller understanding of life on Earth over the next couple of decades.

On the basis of fuzzy sets and some of their relevant generalizations, this book systematically presents the fundamental principles and applications of group decision making under different scenarios of preference relations. By using intuitionistic knowledge as the field of discourse, this work investigates by utilizing innovative research means the fundamental principles and methods of group decision making with various different intuitionistic preferences: Mathematical reasoning is employed to study the consistency of group decision making; Methods of fusing information are applied to look at the aggregation of multiple preferences; Techniques of soft computing and optimization are utilized to search for satisfactory decision alternatives. Each chapter follows the following structurally clear format of presentation: literature review, development of basic theory, verification and reasoning of principles , construction of models and computational schemes, and numerical examples, which cover such areas as technology, enterprise competitiveness, selection of airlines, experts decision making in weather-sensitive enterprises, etc. In terms of theoretical principles, this book can be used as a reference for researchers in the areas of management science, information science, systems engineering, operations research, and other relevant fields. It can also be employed as textbook for upper level undergraduate students and graduate students. In terms of applications, this book will be a good companion for all those decision makers in government, business, and technology areas.

A clear, actionable plan to fight frustration at work, make savvier decisions, and avoid costly mistakes when we're short on time, attention, and choices

One of the most frustrating dilemmas for working people today is how to be effective when we feel we don't have time or we're facing non-stop demands. "The Power of Pause" process is a dynamic practice that Nance Guilmartin has taught thousands of people worldwide, equipping them to regain control of thoughts and avoid miscommunications. This tested method helps readers to take a moment to wonder what's called for when we feel we're short on time, attention, temper, or choices. In that instant, we can use a simple method to rewire our overloaded circuits, tap into our "missing-in-action" common sense, and raise our communication intelligence. This process is "not" about slowing down the pace of workday life. It is about enabling anyone who is time-pressed to make savvier choices and avoid costly mistakes.Shows how to exercise leadership skills that save time and strengthen relationshipsOffers a process for learning to engage in productive exchanges rather than attacking or being resigned Enables managers and teams to save time and moneyReveals how to fix problems and achieve goals with less stress

"The" "Power of Pause" methods enable managers and teams across varying industries/any industry to save time and money, fix problems and achieve goals with less stress-even in the face of competition, cultural and language differences, or tight budgets.

Eyes Wide Open: How to Make Smart Decisions in a Confusing World is Noreen Hertz's practical, cutting-edge guide to help you cut through the data deluge and make smarter and better choices, based on her highly popular TED talk.

In this eye-opening handbook, the internationally noted speaker, economics expert, and bestselling author of IOU: The Debt Threat and Silent Takeover reveals the extent to which the biggest decisions in our lives are often made on the basis of flawed information, weak assumptions, corrupted data, insufficient scrutiny of others, and a lack of self-knowledge.

To avert such disasters, Hertz persuasively argues, we need to become empowered decision-makers, capable of making high-stakes choices and holding accountable those who advise us.

In Eyes Wide Open, she weaves together scientific research with real-world examples from Hollywood to Harry Potter, NASA to World War Two spies, to construct a path to more astute and empowered decision-making in ten clear steps. With a razor-sharp intellect and an instinct for popular storytelling, she offers counter-intuitive, actionable guidance for making better choices--whether you are a business-person, a professional, a patient, or a parent.

Appendices A Rotastore A. l Tabular Results for Different Models A. 2 Tabular Results for Different Algorithms B OptiTrans B. l Input Data B. l. l Input Data Common to all Solution Approaches B. 1. 2 Specific Input Data for the MILP Model and the Column Enumeration Approach B. 1. 3 Specific Input Data for the Heuristic Methods B. 1. 3. 1 Penalty Criteria B. 1. 3. 2 Control Parameters of the OptiTrans Software B. 2 Tabular Results B. 2. 1 Tabular Results for the MILP Model B. 2. 2 Tabular Results for the Heuristic Methods B. 2. 2. 1 Input Data for a Whole Day - Offline Analysis B. 2. 2. 2 Results for CIH and SA References Index Preface This book covers the analysis and development of online algorithms involving exact optimization and heuristic techniques, and their appli- tion to solve two real life problems. The first problem is concerned with a complex technical system: a special carousel based high-speed storage system - Rotastore. It is shown that this logistic problem leads to an NP-hard Batch Presorting Pr- lem (BPSP) which is not easy to solve optimally in offline situations. We consider a polynomial case and develope an exact algorithm for offline situations. Competitive analysis showed that the proposed online - gorithm is 312-competitive. Online algorithms with lookahead improve the online solutions in particular cases. If the capacity constraint on additional storage is neglected the problem has a totally unimodular polyhedron.

The scale and complexity of research and practices of open innovation mandate a correspondingly sophisticated form of decision making. Strategic Planning Decisions brings together a number of tools that ease the decision process in technology companies, providing both conceptual frameworks and practical applications. Innovative approaches are presented such as an ontology-based model where all the relevant aspects of a potential technology are interrelated to provide a comprehensive and logically connected data pool for decision makers. Divided into two sections, Strategic Planning Decisions describe both strategic approaches using the decision tools, and tactical approaches. Some of these tools are expanded while some others are embedded in a model that will lay the ground for practical application. These include: bibliometric analysis, ontology, roadmapping, lead user, six sigma, and multi-actor & multi-objective decision making methods Recent research and relevant theory are balanced with up-to-date practical applications and hands-on techniques making Strategic Planning Decisions ideal for engineers who wish to keep up-to-date with current ideas in the field of TM. It also provides workable methods for practising managers from all levels who wish to apply a more rigorous approach in their work and consultants concerned with technology assessment and its management.

The study of complex systems attracts the attention of many researchers in diverse fields. Complex systems are characterized by a high number of entities and a high degree of interactions. One of the most important features is that they do not involve a central organizing authority, but the various elements that make up the systems are self-organized. Moreover, some complex systems possess an emergency priority: climate change and sustainable development research, studies of public health, ecosystem habitats, epidemiology, and medicine, among others. Unfortunately, a great number of today's overlapping approaches fail to meet the needs of decision makers when managing complex domains. Indeed, the design of complex systems often requires the integration of a number of artificial intelligence tools and techniques. The problem can be viewed in terms of goals, states, and actions, choosing the best action to move the system toward its desired state or behavior. This is why agent-based approaches are used to model complex systems. The main objective of this book is to bring together existing methods for decision support systems creation within a coherent agent-based framework and to provide an interdisciplinary and flexible methodology for modeling complex and systemic domains.

This book presents recent advancements of research, new methods and techniques, applications and projects in decision making and decision support systems. It explores expert systems and neural networks, knowledge engineering and management, fuzzy sets and systems and computational methods for optimization, data analysis and decision making. It presents applications in Economics, Finance, Management and Engineering. The book undertakes to stimulate scientific exchange, ideas and experiences in the field of decision making in Economy and Management. Researchers and practitioners alike will benefit from this book, when they are dealing with imprecision, vagueness and uncertainty in the context of decision making.

Don Lamberton was one of the first scholars to recognise the need for information to be taken seriously, he has spent much of his career persuading others. Focusing on his contribution, this volume explores the struggle for recognition of a way of thinking which is fundamental to our understanding of the social and economic role of information.

Each of the thirty authors, prominent in information economics and related fields have written a contribution especially for this volume. Vital issues, central to Lamberton's concerns and often ignored in euphoric approaches to information - the plight of the information poor, the poverty of information policy, the future of universal service, quality of employment, organisational and market failure to effect information transactions, the role of information in economic development, problems of codifying, classifying and managing information, the limitations of information systems - are emphasised throughout.

The whole encapsulates the vast progress which has been made, not just in academic thinking about information, but in the part this thinking now plays in corporate strategy and government policy. The volume is both an affectionate account of Don Lamberton's contribution to the understanding of information, and also the most comprehensive and authoritative of collections on the social and economic significance of information.

Warren Buffett compares stock trading to great athletes: they excel not because of fast neurological responses, but because of their ability to delay as long as possible before reacting. Successful CEOs, fire fighters, and military officers all know how to manage delay to gather as much information as possible to get the results they need. In Wait, Frank Partnoy argues that decisions of all kinds, whether 'snap' or long-term, benefit from being made at the last possible moment. The art of knowing how long you can afford to delay before committing is at the heart of many a great decision, whether in a corporate takeover or a marriage proposal. Apologies are better received if they are not rushed and people who can defer gratification are happier and more successful than those who must have everything now. Partnoy demonstrates that the ability to wait is crucial to getting the right answer and that gut instincts are often wrong.

Eurocorridors are characterized by intensive transport flows and dynamic patterns of establishment and household locations. They are also considered the backbones of powerful spatial and economic forces in the areas that connect urban regions. One of the main difficulties in the spatial planning of eurocorridors has been the need to engage in different types of collective action. Such an approach can be extremely challenging in practice, useful to researchers in the fieldand to professionals as well.

In the light of this, the book s main objectives are:

- To define the problem by analyzing the key features, which include freight and passenger transport policies and issues; the territorial context, with its geographical, social, economic and cultural aspects; the plurality of subjects with different aims and resources and the lack of homogeneous information.

- To illustrate assessment models and evaluation frameworks (MCDA; Discrete Choice Analysis; Collaborative Assessments; Geovisualization Technologies) in theoretical terms and by the use of case studies."

Decision Making in Manufacturing Environment Using Graph Theory and Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making Methods presents the concepts and details of applications of MADM methods. A range of methods are covered including Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), VIsekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR), Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Preference Ranking METHod for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la Realite (ELECTRE), COmplex PRoportional ASsessment (COPRAS), Grey Relational Analysis (GRA), UTility Additive (UTA), and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA). The existing MADM methods are improved upon and three novel multiple attribute decision making methods for solving the decision making problems of the manufacturing environment are proposed. The concept of integrated weights is introduced in the proposed subjective and objective integrated weights (SOIW) method and the weighted Euclidean distance based approach (WEDBA) to consider both the decision maker's subjective preferences as well as the distribution of the attributes data of the decision matrix. These methods, which use fuzzy logic to convert the qualitative attributes into the quantitative attributes, are supported by various real-world application examples. Also, computer codes for AHP, TOPSIS, DEA, PROMETHEE, ELECTRE, COPRAS, and SOIW methods are included. This comprehensive coverage makes Decision Making in Manufacturing Environment Using Graph Theory and Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making Methods a key reference for the designers, manufacturing engineers, practitioners, managers, institutes involved in both design and manufacturing related projects. It is also an ideal study resource for applied research workers, academicians, and students in mechanical and industrial engineering.

New and expanded edition. An International Bestseller - Over One Million Copies Sold! Shortlisted for the Financial Times/Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award. Since Aristotle, we have fought to understand the causes behind everything. But this ideology is fading. In the age of big data, we can crunch an incomprehensible amount of information, providing us with invaluable insights about the what rather than the why. We're just starting to reap the benefits: tracking vital signs to foresee deadly infections, predicting building fires, anticipating the best moment to buy a plane ticket, seeing inflation in real time and monitoring social media in order to identify trends. But there is a dark side to big data. Will it be machines, rather than people, that make the decisions? How do you regulate an algorithm? What will happen to privacy? Will individuals be punished for acts they have yet to commit? In this groundbreaking and fascinating book, two of the world's most-respected data experts reveal the reality of a big data world and outline clear and actionable steps that will equip the reader with the tools needed for this next phase of human evolution.

Economic players must often choose between several strategic options in a fierce competitive environment where interactions with competitors make decisions particularly complex. Game theory offers useful insights to choose an optimal decision or at least a basis for making rational decision given the constraints of the stakeholders' environment. In presenting the concepts and the logical structure of the reasoning offered by game theory and their applications, the book explains the rational process of decision making in the framework of firm management and market competition. By avoiding the usual complexity of presentation often due to mathematical formalism, the book proposes a reflection and practical insights of game theory for practitioners (managers, strategists) and social, managerial and economic researchers. The book will expose both general teachings and a comprehensive analysis applied to specific case studies of various sectors of the economy.

A step-by-step, real-world guide to the use of Value at Risk (VaR) models, this text applies the VaR approach to the measurement of market risk, credit risk, and operational risk. The book describes and critiques proprietary models, illustrating them with practical examples drawn from actual case studies. Explaining the logic behind the economics and statistics, this technically sophisticated yet intuitive text should be an essential resource for all readers operating in a world of risk.

The text uses VaR techniques to analyze loans, derivatives, equity prices, foreign currencies and other financial instruments. Featuring comprehensive coverage of the BIS bank capital requirements, and including the latest proposals for the New Capital Accord, the book also describes the newest application of VaR techniques to operational risk measurement. The text examines the promise and the pitfalls of these risk measurement models, and makes recommendations for future research into this important area.

What distinguishes great leaders? Exceptional leaders capture passion. They lead for real: from the heart, smart and focused on the future, and with a commitment to being their very best. As Annie McKee and Richard Boyatzis have shown in their bestselling books Primal Leadership and Resonant Leadership, they create resonance with others. Through resonance, leaders become attuned to the needs and dreams of people they lead. They create conditions where people can excel. They sustain their effectiveness through renewal. McKee, Boyatzis, and Frances Johnston share vivid, real-life stories illuminating how people can develop emotional intelligence, build resonance, and renew themselves. Reflecting twenty years of longitudinal research and practical wisdom with executives and leaders around the world, this new book is organized around a core of experience-tested exercises. These tools help you articulate your strengths and values, craft a plan for intentional change, and create resonance with others. Practical and inspiring, Becoming a Resonant Leader is your hands-on guide to developing emotional intelligence, renewing and sustaining yourself and your relationships, and taking your leadership to a whole new level. This book is ideal for anyone seeking personal and professional development and for consultants, coaches, teachers, and faculty to use with their clients or students.

Rebekka Sputtek sheds light upon the question of how the personality and emotional traits of executives influence their decision making and leadership behavior. While recent strategic management research has started to recognize the relevance of an executive's personality traits as antecedents of organizational outcomes, this stream has called for a more fine-grained clarification of the psychological processes underlying executive decision making. In order to contribute to the understanding of these processes, a holistic model integrating the role of an expedient set of personality variables and anger in executive's decision making comprehensiveness as well as authenticity of transformational leadership is developed.

"The Great Game of Business" started a business revolution by introducing the world to open-book management, a new way of running a business that created unprecedented profit and employee engagement.
The revised and updated edition of "The Great Game of Business" lays out an entirely different way of running a company. It wasn't dreamed up in an executive think tank or an Ivy League business school or around the conference table by big-time consultants. It was forged on the factory floors of the heartland by ordinary folks hoping to figure out how to save their jobs when their parent company, International Harvester, went down the tubes.
What these workers created was a revolutionary approach to management that has proven itself in every industry around the world for the past thirty years--an approach that is perhaps the last, best hope for reviving the American Dream.

Wiley's new "Handbook of Decision Making" is a vital reference text for all students and professionals of management, organization and decision making. The handbook offers a wide range of theoretical and empirical approaches to the understanding of organizational and strategic decisions. Contributors are internationally known experts drawn from North America, Canada and Europe who have spent many years in the study of decision making, and decision making relevant topics. We believe the handbook will become a tour de force in the understanding decision making, offering a wide variety of perspectives, topics, and summative understanding of the field. Chapters in the "Handbook" were prepared by the leading experts in their field and include cutting edge empirical, theoretical, and review chapters. The chapters bring together for the first time a critical mass of writing on decision making as an organizational and research activity. The Editors are two of the leading international experts in decision making and contribute to the "Handbook" with five original Chapters that offer an appraisal of the field and suggestions for research, as well as the current status of decision making practice and suggestion for improvement.

Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds. Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders' aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results from several empirical studies reported in this work show the importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for designing future prediction markets.