This volume presents advanced techniques to modeling markets, with a wide spectrum of topics, including advanced individual demand models, time series analysis, state space models, spatial models, structural models, mediation, models that specify competition and diffusion models. It is intended as a follow-on and companion to Modeling Markets (2015), in which the authors presented the basics of modeling markets along the classical steps of the model building process: specification, data collection, estimation, validation and implementation. This volume builds on the concepts presented in Modeling Markets with an emphasis on advanced methods that are used to specify, estimate and validate marketing models, including structural equation models, partial least squares, mixture models, and hidden Markov models, as well as generalized methods of moments, Bayesian analysis, non/semi-parametric estimation and endogeneity issues. Specific attention is given to big data. The market environment is changing rapidly and constantly. Models that provide information about the sensitivity of market behavior to marketing activities such as advertising, pricing, promotions and distribution are now routinely used by managers for the identification of changes in marketing programs that can improve brand performance. In today's environment of information overload, the challenge is to make sense of the data that is being provided globally, in real time, from thousands of sources. Although marketing models are now widely accepted, the quality of the marketing decisions is critically dependent upon the quality of the models on which those decisions are based. This volume provides an authoritative and comprehensive review, with each chapter including: * an introduction to the method/methodology * a numerical example/application in marketing * references to other marketing applications * suggestions about software. Featuring contributions from top authors in the field, this volume will explore current and future aspects of modeling markets, providing relevant and timely research and techniques to scientists, researchers, students, academics and practitioners in marketing, management and economics.

Many people find it difficult to express ideas and solve problems purely with words. They find it much easier to use diagrams. Distilled into this single, handy-sized volume are 60 of the best diagrams to help anyone with problem solving and thinking. Each of the diagrams is presented on one spread, explained simply, and accompanied by an exercise to help you apply them to your own situation. This 5th anniversary edition celebrates sales of 50,000 worldwide and includes brand new material, plus a cross-referenced thematic index to guide you direct to the most appropriate examples.

This new Edition of Electronic Commerce is a complete update of the leading graduate level/advanced undergraduate level textbook on the subject. Electronic commerce (EC) describes the manner in which transactions take place over electronic networks, mostly the Internet. It is the process of electronically buying and selling goods, services, and information. Certain EC applications, such as buying and selling stocks and airline tickets online, are reaching maturity, some even exceeding non-Internet trades. However, EC is not just about buying and selling; it also is about electronically communicating, collaborating, and discovering information. It is about e-learning, e-government, social networks, and much more. EC is having an impact on a significant portion of the world, affecting businesses, professions, trade, and of course, people. The most important developments in EC since 2014 are the continuous phenomenal growth of social networks, especially Facebook , LinkedIn and Instagram, and the trend toward conducting EC with mobile devices. Other major developments are the expansion of EC globally, especially in China where you can find the world's largest EC company. Much attention is lately being given to smart commerce and the use of AI-based analytics and big data to enhance the field. Finally, some emerging EC business models are changing industries (e.g., the shared economy models of Uber and Airbnb). The 2018 (9th) edition, brings forth the latest trends in e-commerce, including smart commerce, social commerce, social collaboration, shared economy, innovations, and mobility.

This book develops and assesses a decision-making model for resource management in complex work systems in line with the "Systems Engineering" method. It applies the Balanced Scorecard to the development of the criteria system for decision-making, and employs fuzzy linguistics theory to evaluate the alternatives. Further, the book assesses the application of this model in a hospital that has to decide whether or not to outsource its sterile goods. The use of the model opens up a diverse range of fields for decision-making in the area of complex work systems.

Best-selling author Cass R. Sunstein examines how to avoid worst-case scenarios The world is increasingly confronted with new challenges related to climate change, globalization, disease, and technology. Governments are faced with having to decide how much risk is worth taking, how much destruction and death can be tolerated, and how much money should be invested in the hopes of avoiding catastrophe. Lacking full information, should decision-makers focus on avoiding the most catastrophic outcomes? When should extreme measures be taken to prevent as much destruction as possible? Averting Catastrophe explores how governments ought to make decisions in times of imminent disaster. Cass R. Sunstein argues that using the "maximin rule," which calls for choosing the approach that eliminates the worst of the worst-case scenarios, may be necessary when public officials lack important information, and when the worst-case scenario is too disastrous to contemplate. He underscores this argument by emphasizing the reality of "Knightian uncertainty," found in circumstances in which it is not possible to assign probabilities to various outcomes. Sunstein brings foundational issues in decision theory in close contact with real problems in regulation, law, and daily life, and considers other potential future risks. At once an approachable introduction to decision-theory and a provocative argument for how governments ought to handle risk, Averting Catastrophe offers a definitive path forward in a world rife with uncertainty.

A tried and tested formula for business planning What is the one thing you need to know in business? What s the single most important aspect of business to master in order to succeed and grow? It has to be planning. Whether you re sitting down to plan a whole brand strategy or tasked with planning a single product and taking it to market, nailing the planning and decision making will ensure you have full buy-in from all stakeholders, a high level of market knowledge, know exactly what value your product or service brings and a thorough understanding of how the financials will work. In short, you ll have an idea that succeeds. Ross Lovelock and his company SCQuARE have spent the last 20 years developing a formula for such planning. Ross has shared this formula with some of the world s leading companies now he s going to share it with you. The One Thing You Need to Know is a complete business planning toolkit. * A simple, implementable explanation of how to bring a product plan or a brand strategy together * Will teach you the critical business skill of creating and selling plans * Learn how to think through a complex business problem, create the right solution and then sell it through the corporate maze * Explains exactly how to distil vast amounts of information into a compelling business story that will warrant a YES decision from the boss

This tutorial teaches you how to use the statistical programming language R to develop a business case simulation and analysis. It presents a methodology for conducting business case analysis that minimizes decision delay by focusing stakeholders on what matters most and suggests pathways for minimizing the risk in strategic and capital allocation decisions. Business case analysis, often conducted in spreadsheets, exposes decision makers to additional risks that arise just from the use of the spreadsheet environment. R has become one of the most widely used tools for reproducible quantitative analysis, and analysts fluent in this language are in high demand. The R language, traditionally used for statistical analysis, provides a more explicit, flexible, and extensible environment than spreadsheets for conducting business case analysis. The main tutorial follows the case in which a chemical manufacturing company considers constructing a chemical reactor and production facility to bring a new compound to market. There are numerous uncertainties and risks involved, including the possibility that a competitor brings a similar product online. The company must determine the value of making the decision to move forward and where they might prioritize their attention to make a more informed and robust decision. While the example used is a chemical company, the analysis structure it presents can be applied to just about any business decision, from IT projects to new product development to commercial real estate. The supporting tutorials include the perspective of the founder of a professional service firm who wants to grow his business and a member of a strategic planning group in a biomedical device company who wants to know how much to budget in order to refine the quality of information about critical uncertainties that might affect the value of a chosen product development pathway. What You'll Learn Set up a business case abstraction in an influence diagram to communicate the essence of the problem to other stakeholders Model the inherent uncertainties in the problem with Monte Carlo simulation using the R language Communicate the results graphically Draw appropriate insights from the results Develop creative decision strategies for thorough opportunity cost analysis Calculate the value of information on critical uncertainties between competing decision strategies to set the budget for deeper data analysis Construct appropriate information to satisfy the parameters for the Monte Carlo simulation when little or no empirical data are available Who This Book Is For Financial analysts, data practitioners, and risk/business professionals; also appropriate for graduate level finance, business, or data science students

"Whether by design, accident or merely synchronicity, Checkland appears to have developed a habit of writing seminal publications near the start of each decade which establish the basis and framework for systems methodology research for that decade." Hamish Rennie, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1992

Thirty years ago Peter Checkland set out to test whether the Systems Engineering (SE) approach, highly successful in technical problems, could be used by managers coping with the unfolding complexities of organizational life. The straightforward transfer of SE to the broader situations of management was not possible, but by insisting on a combination of systems thinking strongly linked to real-world practice Checkland and his collaborators developed an alternative approach - Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) - which enables managers of all kinds and at any level to deal with the subtleties and confusions of the situations they face. This work established the now accepted distinction between ‘hard’ systems thinking, in which parts of the world are taken to be ‘systems’ which can be ‘engineered’, and ‘soft’ systems thinking in which the focus is on making sure the process of inquiry into real-world complexity is itself a system for learning. Systems Thinking, Systems Practice (1981) and Soft Systems Methodology in Action (1990) together with an earlier paper Towards a Systems-based Methodology for Real-World Problem Solving (1972) have long been recognized as classics in the field. Now Peter Checkland has looked back over the three decades of SSM development, brought the account of it up to date, and reflected on the whole evolutionary process which has produced a mature SSM. SSM: A 30-Year Retrospective, here included with Systems Thinking, Systems Practice closes a chapter on what is undoubtedly the most significant single research programme on the use of systems ideas in problem solving. Now retired from full-time university work, Peter Checkland continues his research as a Leverhulme Emeritus Fellow.

"Applications of Management Science" is a blind refereed serial publication published on an annual basis. The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of management science to the solution of significant managerial decision-making problems. It significantly aids the dissemination of actual applications of management science in both the public and private sectors. Volume 13 is directed toward the application of management science to financial management, specifically in portfolio analysis and in productivity management such as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Arranged in two sections, the first comprises a collection of financial applications papers, while the second focuses on the use of DEA in such wide-ranging environments as airport operations, freight railroads, gynaecological departments, severe coastal storms, and performance evaluation and classification of universities and public schools. This volume will prove valuable to researchers and practitioners of management science and operations research, as well as being a vital companion to portfolio analysts and industrial and financial engineers alike.

Project teams are the rule, rather than the exception, in today's organizations. But, thanks to the pressure of performance goals, conflicting agendas, and political jockeying, few teams make consistently superior decisions. In "Moving Out of the Box: Tools for Team Decision Making" author Jana M. Kemp, an authority on team decision making, saves the day by offering tested methods and tools that teams and leaders can use to ratchet up their performance level.
The book argues that making good decisions involves expansive group conversation that leads to sound conclusions and swift execution. This sounds simple, but in many organizations, making a decision and seeing it through can become an exercise in frustration for managers and employees alike. At one end of the spectrum are "command-and-control" decisions, proclaimed from on-high and implemented through the ranks without input or buy-in from those affected by the decision. This approach can lead to resentment and backlash. At the other end are purely collaborative, consensus-driven decisions that often lead to inoffensive, weak choices and sub-par results.
"Moving Out of the Box" shows that there is a time for consensus, a time for command-and-control, and a time to integrate both approaches. Providing examples of successes and failures, the text identifies five decision-making profiles--antisurvival, boxed-in, neutral, engaged enthusiasm, extreme excitement--to help you position yourself in relation to your teammates, facilitate discussion, and steer your group toward the most effective end point. The text includes scenarios, exercises, quizzes, sample questions, and other conversation starters. And, the book ends with a blueprint for putting decisions into action.

Political speeches don't just mirror what transpires in the world; they have the potential to change people's minds, move them into action, reinforce existing assumptions, and reshape cultures. They define public participation and are the 'nexus points' of disparate discourses, both nationally and globally. Because of their power to sustain the status quo or effect change, speeches warrant public attention and careful study. To examine them is to understand how they are crafted, what elements they possess, and how these elements come together to affect their audience. This volume analyzes selected speeches delivered by Benigno 'Noynoy' Simeon C. Aquino III, President of the Republic of the Philippines from 2010 to 2016. They are speeches that have been used to shape public perception, gain support, and build identification between Aquino's presidency and his audience. By mobilizing the concepts of presidential image, myth, metaphors, and rhetorical citizenship, readers are guided through a process of examining the rhetorical trajectory of the Philippine presidency, how a president's discourse has attempted to shape Philippine socio-political reality, and how the evolving milieu the president has found himself in shapes his discourse. The essays in this volume will hopefully generate a discussion not only on the place of President Benigno Aquino's rhetoric in Philippine presidential history, but also of how rhetorical practices in an evolving democratic society in Asia can extend and expand theorizations of presidential rhetoric and political communication at large.

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Group Decision and Negotiation, GDN 2017, held in Stuttgart, Germany, in August 2017. The field of Group Decision and Negotiation focuses on decision processes with at least two participants and a common goal but conflicting individual goals. Research areas of Group Decision and Negotiation include electronic negotiations, experiments, the role of emotions in group decision and negotiations, preference elicitation and decision support for group decisions and negotiations, and conflict resolution principles. The 14 full papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 87 submissions. They were organized in topical sections named: general topics in group decision and negotiation; conflict resolution; emotions in group decision and negotiation; negotiation support systems and studies; and preference modeling for group decision and negotiation. The book also contains two invited talks in full paper length.

Your Company Isn't Fast Enough. Here's How to Change That. The traditional hierarchical organization is dead, but what replaces it? Numerous new models--the agile organization, the networked organization, and holacracy, to name a few--have emerged, but leaders need to know what really works. How do you build an organization that is responsive to fast-changing markets? What kind of organization delivers both speed and scale, and how do you lead it? Arthur Yeung and Dave Ulrich provide leaders with a much-needed blueprint for reinventing the organization. Based on their in-depth research at leading Chinese, US, and European firms such as Alibaba, Amazon, DiDi, Facebook, Google, Huawei, Supercell, and Tencent, and drawing from their synthesis of the latest organization research and practice, Yeung and Ulrich explain how to build a new kind of organization (a "market-oriented ecosystem") that responds to changing market opportunities with speed and scale. While other books address individual pieces of the puzzle, Reinventing the Organization offers a practical, integrated, six-step framework and looks at all the decisions leaders need to make--choosing the right strategies, capabilities, structure, culture, management tools, and leadership--to deliver radically greater value in fast-moving markets. For any leader eager to build a stronger, more responsive organization and for all those in HR, organizational development, and consulting who will shape and deliver it, this book provides a much-needed roadmap for reinvention.

This book fills a void for a balanced approach to spreadsheet-based decision modeling. In addition to using spreadsheets as a tool to quickly set up and solve decision models, the authors show how and why the methods work and combine the user's power to logically model and analyze diverse decision-making scenarios with software-based solutions. The book discusses the fundamental concepts, assumptions and limitations behind each decision modeling technique, shows how each decision model works, and illustrates the real-world usefulness of each technique with many applications from both profit and nonprofit organizations. The authors provide an introduction to managerial decision modeling, linear programming models, modeling applications and sensitivity analysis, transportation, assignment and network models, integer, goal, and nonlinear programming models, project management, decision theory, queuing models, simulation modeling, forecasting models and inventory control models. The additional material files Chapter 12 Excel files for each chapter Excel modules for Windows Excel modules for Mac 4th edition errata can be found at https://www.degruyter.com/view/product/486941

Stimulating and developing the creative potential of all members of an organisation is widely seen as contributing to performance and results. This prestigious textbook provides a complete overview of the creative problem-solving process and its relevance to modern managers in the private and public sectors. It introduces ideas, skills and models to help students understand how creative thinking can aid problem solving, and how different techniques may help people who have different thinking and learning styles. This updated fifth edition includes fresh case studies, exercises and suggested reading, alongside extensive diagrams and thought-provoking questions. A new chapter considers the use of heuristics in decision-making situations faced by managers, and examines how aspects of creative problem solving can relate to such situations. It also introduces a complex in-tray exercise, which demonstrates how the conflicting demands on an individual manager can be considered in practice. Supporting PowerPoint slides for lecturers are available for each chapter. Creative Problem Solving for Managers will continue to be an ideal resource for undergraduate and postgraduate students studying problem solving, strategic management, creativity and innovation management, as well as managers looking to develop their decision-making abilities.

Macroeconomic turbulence and volatility in financial markets can fatally affect firm's performance. Very few firms make serious attempts to inform market participants and other outsider stakeholders about the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations--manifested as changes in exchange rates, interest rates, inflation rates and stock market returns-- on performance. These stakeholders, as well as financial analysts, must make their own assessments but they generally lack both the required tools and the information to do so. Worse, top management in most firms do not themselves possess the tools to identify whether a change in performance represents a change in the firm's intrinsic competitiveness or a reflection of macroeconomic conditions outside their influence.
Corporate Decision-Making with Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Performance and Risk Management develops and presents in an easily comprehensible way the essential elements of a corporate strategy for managing uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. This Macroeconomic Uncertainty Strategy, or MUST, enhances firm value by allowing management and external stakeholders to become better informed about the development of corporate competitiveness in a turbulent macroeconomic environment. The MUST also provides guidelines for how to develop a successful risk management program.
This research based book includes methods to identify the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on cash flows and value, to develop strategies for macroeconomic risk management, to provide informative reports to external stakeholders, to evaluate the relative performance of subsidiaries and business units in multinational companies, and to evaluateperformance for purposes of setting executive compensation and of fulfilling the due diligence requirements in an M & A context. The authors' use of value-based management, various performance measurements, the concept of real options, and risk management from the perspective of shareholder wealth maximization, makes the book rich and compelling. They address researchers and students in the field of international business, finance and corporate governance. On the business side, executives with strategic responsibilities, chief financial officers, and bankers who analyze corporate performance and give advice on risk management will benefit from reading this book.

Train your brain for better decisions, problem solving, and innovation Think Smarter: Critical Thinking to Improve Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Skills is the comprehensive guide to training your brain to do more for you. Written by a critical thinking trainer and coach, the book presents a pragmatic set of tools to apply critical thinking techniques to everyday business issues. Think Smarter is filled with real world examples that demonstrate how the tools work in action, in addition to dozens of practice exercises applicable across industries and functions, Think Smarter is a versatile resource for individuals, managers, students, and corporate training programs. Thinking is the foundation of everything you do, but we rely largely on automatic thinking to process information, often resulting in misunderstandings and errors. Shifting over to critical thinking means thinking purposefully using a framework and toolset, enabling thought processes that lead to better decisions, faster problem solving, and creative innovation. Think Smarter provides clear, actionable steps toward improving your critical thinking skills, plus exercises that clarify complex concepts by putting theory into practice. Features include: * A comprehensive critical thinking framework * Over twenty-five "tools" to help you think more critically * Critical thinking implementation for functions and activities * Examples of the real-world use of each tool Learn what questions to ask, how to uncover the real problem to solve, and mistakes to avoid. Recognize assumptions your can rely on versus those without merit, and train your brain to tick through your mental toolbox to arrive at more innovative solutions. Critical thinking is the top skill on the wish list in the business world, and sharpening your ability can have profound affects throughout all facets of life. Think Smarter: Critical Thinking to Improve Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Skills provides a roadmap to more effective and productive thought.

Dozens of books have been published recently on the errors and biases that affect our judgments and choices. Drawing on cognitive science, their lessons are excellent for many kinds of decisions - consumer choice and financial investments, for example - but stop short of addressing many of the most important decisions we face in management, where we can actively influence outcomes and where competitive forces mean we have to outperform rivals. As Phil Rosenzweig shows, drawing on examples from business, sports and politics, this sort of decision-making relies on mastering two very different abilities. First, the analytical problem-solving skills associated with the brain's left hemisphere; and second, what Tom Wolfe called 'the Right Stuff': the ability to take calculated risks. Bringing fresh and often surprising insights to topics including confidence and overconfidence, the uses and limits of decision models, leadership and authenticity, expert performance and deliberate practice, competitive bidding and new venture management, Left Brain, Right Stuff, the myth-busting follow-up to The Halo Effect, explains how to perform when making even the most difficult decisions.

These conference proceedings focus on the topics of data-driven decision-making, stochastic decision-making, fuzzy decision-making and their applications in real-life problems. Beijing University of Chemical Technology organized IFDS2016, the 4th International Forum on Decision Sciences, with the theme "Data-Driven Decision-Making." The proceedings collect 84 selected papers presenting cutting-edge modeling and solution methods and include numerous practical case studies, making it a valuable resource for students, researchers and practitioners working in the fields of decision science, operations research, management science and engineering.

Chip and Dan Heath, the bestselling authors of Switch and Made to Stick, tackle one of the most critical topics in our work and personal lives: how to make better decisions. Research in psychology has revealed that our decisions are disrupted by an array of biases and irrationalities: We're overconfident. We seek out information that supports us and downplay information that doesn't. We get distracted by short-term emotions. When it comes to making choices, it seems, our brains are flawed instruments. Unfortunately, merely being aware of these shortcomings doesn't fix the problem, any more than knowing that we are nearsighted helps us to see. The real question is: How can we do better? In Decisive, the Heaths, based on an exhaustive study of the decision-making literature, introduce a four-step process designed to counteract these biases. Written in an engaging and compulsively readable style, Decisive takes readers on an unforgettable journey, from a rock star's ingenious decision-making trick to a CEO's disastrous acquisition, to a single question that can often resolve thorny personal decisions. Along the way, we learn the answers to critical questions like these: How can we stop the cycle of agonizing over our decisions? How can we make group decisions without destructive politics? And how can we ensure that we don't overlook precious opportunities to change our course? Decisive is the Heath brothers' most powerful-and important-book yet, offering fresh strategies and practical tools enabling us to make better choices. Because the right decision, at the right moment, can make all the difference.

Medical decision making has evolved in recent years, as more complex problems are being faced and addressed based on increasingly large amounts of data. In parallel, advances in computing power have led to a host of new and powerful statistical tools to support decision making. Simulation-based Bayesian methods are especially promising, as they provide a unified framework for data collection, inference, and decision making. In addition, these methods are simple to implement and can help to address the most pressing practical and ethical concerns arising in medical decision making.

• Provides an overview of the necessary methodological background, including Bayesian inference, Monte Carlo simulation, and utility theory.
• Driven by three real applications, presented as extensively detailed case studies.
• Case studies include simplified versions of the analysis, to approach complex modelling in stages.
• Features coverage of meta-analysis, decision analysis, and comprehensive decision modeling.
• Accessible to readers with only a basic statistical knowledge.

Primarily aimed at students and practitioners of biostatistics, the book will also appeal to those working in statistics, medical informatics, evidence-based medicine, health economics, health service research and health policy.