Despite intense research on decision-making in action, we still know little about when decision-makers rely on deliberate vs. intuitive decision-making in decision situations under complexity and uncertainty. Building on default-interventionist dual-processing theory, this book studies decision-making modes (deliberate vs. intuitive) in complex task environments contingent on perceived complexity, experience, and decision style preference. We find that relatively inexperienced decision-makers respond to increases in subjective complexity with an increase in deliberation and tend to follow their decision style preference. Experienced decision-makers are less guided by their decision preference and respond to increases in subjective complexity only minimally. This book contributes to a developing stream of research linking decision-making with intra-personal and environmental properties and fosters our understanding of the conditions under which decision-makers rely on intuitive vs. deliberate decision modes. In doing so, we go one step further towards a comprehensive theory of decision-making in action.

"Advances in Business and Management Forecasting" is a blind refereed serial publication published on an annual basis. The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making (an accurate, robust forecast is critical to effective decision making). It is the hope and direction of the research annual to become an applications and practitioner-oriented publication. The topics of this title will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally-based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models. It is both the hope and direction of the editorial board to stimulate the interest of the practitioners of forecasting to methods and techniques that are relevant. In Volume 7, there are sections devoted to financial applications of forecasting, as well as marketing demand applications. There are, also, sections on forecasting methodologies and evaluation, as well as on other application areas of forecasting.

Intelligent IT Outsourcing enables practitioners to focus in on the essential issues that need to be addressed so that the fundamental structure of their sourcing strategy and its implementation is sound. The authors provide insight into the challenges likely to be faced and give detailed advice on how to pre-empt and manage these. IT and outsourcing continue to be problematic, not least because fundamental learning about this subject fails to be applied systematically, and because IT is inherently difficult to manage. The economics are not obvious and emerging technologies have to be addressed, therefore IT goes to the heart of many enterprises and interfaces with multiple business units and processes, and there are continuous skills shortages. Unfortunately complexities are not removed in outsourced situations where additional problems come into play, for example the supplier's capabilities, whether the IT is right for an outsourcing solution, and whether the contract is robust but flexible enough to allow for outsourcing to take place. Objectives need to be realistic, and factors such as whether the internal management is mature and capable enough in this field, and the impact of prohibitive switching costs on behaviour once an outsourcing deal has been signed all have to be taken into account. The authors have built up over two decades of research, advisory and practitioner experience that enables them to distil the fundamental challenges in IT and outsourcing and demonstrate how these can be addressed.

Provides an introduction to decision analysis. This book is based upon a number of papers and articles taken from the Operational Research Society's journal and other publications. However, the book is not simply a 'collection of reprints': Professor French has provided extensive notes and commentary to weave the extracts into a coherent whole. Although techniques are presented, the main thrust is to convey the purpose of decision analysis and the interpretation that should be placed upon its output: vital topics, but ones seldom discussed in introductory texts. The writing is aimed at the non-technical reader.

Wall Street Journal Best Seller Finalist: The AMA Leonard L. Berry Book Prize Winner: The Eric Hoffer Book Award (Business) Winner: INDIE Gold Medal Book Award (Business) How are a men's grooming brand and frustrated "stuck-at-work" dads leading a revolution in masculinity post #MeToo? What can the decline of a global lingerie brand and corporate hackathons teach us about how fear can stifle innovation? How does hiring "neuro-diverse" workers and creating empathetic shampoo bottles signal a dramatic shift toward compassion in the workplace? For the past 9 years, marketing expert and Georgetown University Professor Rohit Bhargava has curated his best-selling list of non-obvious trends by asking the questions that most trend predictors miss. In this all-new ninth edition, discover what more than a million readers already have: how to use the power of non-obvious thinking to grow your business and make a bigger impact in the world. In total, the Non-Obvious 2019 edition features 15 all-new trends across 5 categories including Culture; Consumer Behavior, Marketing; Social Media, Media & Education, Technology; Design plus Economics; Entrepreneurship. The book also features a detailed section with a review and rating for more than 115 previously predicted trends, with longevity ratings for each. As with the original version, this new edition of Non-Obvious also delves into the curation process the author has used for years to build his Trend Reports and takes readers behind the scenes of trend curation (much to the delight of past readers who have been asking about this for years), and show them the methodology they can use to predict the future for themselves.

Inflation is here. Do you know how it's impacting your company? It's not just a matter of rising costs. Inflation eats cash, squeezes margins, threatens working capital, and throws all your great forecasts and plans into question. Its effect is cumulative and pervasive. Yet this period of economic discontinuity is a huge opportunity to come out stronger for those who know how to lead in the face of inflation and a looming recession. Ram Charan has guided hundreds of companies through many tough business challenges. In the early 1980s, he helped GE preserve its teetering credit rating in the face of double-digit inflation. Now, in Leading Through Inflation, he brings the same common sense and wisdom that made his book Execution, coauthored with Larry Bossidy, a long-time New York Times bestseller. This book will be your guide to avoiding the hazards of inflation while positioning your company to thrive when the business cycle stabilizes. It provides Ram's down-to-earth recommendations and real-world examples to help you navigate a landscape that may be new to you. As you learn to lead through inflation, you will be better prepared for recession and stagflation as well. You will know how to protect your cash, your customers, and your capital investments. Your psychology will shift from anxiety and fear to optimism and excitement as you define the path to a reimagined future.

In our increasingly globally interconnected world, understanding and appreciating the sociocultural context within which individuals make their decisions is critical to developing successful partnerships. The collection of chapters in this volume illustrates how advances in information and social media technologies, as well as modeling and simulation tools, combined with the social sciences, can be leveraged to better understand how sociocultural context influences decision making. The chapters in this volume were contributed by leading experts from academia, industry, and government and provide: Insights into cross-cultural decision making based on recent international events, with grounding in an historical context Discussions of cutting-edge modeling techniques used today by professionals across multiple organizations and agencies Descriptions of specific cross-cultural decision making tools designed for use by laypeople and professionals Case studies on the role of cross-cultural decision making grounded in current events and (in many cases) military applications.

For courses in Decision Making and Engineering. The Fundamentals of Analyzing and Making Decisions Foundations of Decision Analysis is a groundbreaking text that explores the art of decision making, both in life and in professional settings. By exploring themes such as dealing with uncertainty and understanding the distinction between a decision and its outcome, the First Edition teaches students to achieve clarity of action in any situation. The book treats decision making as an evolutionary process from a scientific standpoint. Strategic decision-making analysis is presented as a tool to help students understand, discuss, and settle on important life choices. Through this text, students will understand the specific thought process that occurs behind approaching any decision to make easier and better life choices for themselves.

This book contains an Open Access chapter. Over the past two decades, the field of talent management has established itself as a key area of management practice and research. Emerging from the practitioner literature in the 1990s, the research evidence bases truly materialised in the late 2000s onwards. The launch of the EIASM Workshop on Talent Management in 2012 coincided with this surge in research interest, and we are now in a critical time in the evolution of our understanding of talent management. Talent Management: A Decade of Developments presents valuables insights into the progression in the critical understanding of talent management, building upon a decade of the EIASM Workshops. Bringing together leading voices in talent management research to reflect on recent developments and the current state of research, examining key issues such as talent philosophies, star performers, talent turnover and retention. Aimed at researchers, postgraduate students, and professionals in the field, this collection features the leading experts in their respective areas within talent management. Talent Management: A Decade of Developments charts the evolution of talent management, illustrating the progress, prospects, and challenges that have transpired over the last ten years.

This book, originally published in 1996, develops a model of information gathering for small businesses. Whilst all small business owners gather and process some information, the quality and types of information gathered is limited. Size and resource constraints force small business owners to make difficult decisions related to the research that they conduct. The model developed in this book is tested in part through a study of the information gathering practices of small owners/managers in the landscaping industry in Wisconsin, USA.

Global virtual teams (GVTs) have evolved as a common work structure in multinational corporations due to their efficiency and cost-effectiveness. The cultural differences can produce great benefits in terms of perspective, creativity, and innovation, but can also exacerbate interpersonal tensions, miscommunications, and clashing decision-making behaviors. This book outlines cultural competencies specific to GVTs and sheds light on management strategies for creating an optimal inter-cultural GVT environment. It covers theory, decision making strategies, and activities for cultural competence and problem resolution, all told through vignettes and lessons-learned.

LEADING FROM PURPOSE IS TRANSFORMING LEADERSHIP AT THE WORLD'S TOP COMPANIES 'I can't imagine leading Ben & Jerry's without it' Jostein Solheim, CEO of Ben & Jerry's 'Makes lives deeper, organisations stronger and society more cohesive.' Paul Polman, CEO, Unilever 'Purpose has really enhanced my impact as a leader.' Ralph Hamers, CEO of ING Bank 'My purpose has acted as a guiding light to help me centre and ground myself to lead effectively when it's needed most.' Loren Shuster, Chief People Officer at LEGO Drawing on ten years of experience working with more than 10,000 executives from companies around the world, Nick Craig takes you on a revelatory journey to understand your purpose, find clarity and focus and lead with inspiration. When uncovered, purpose becomes our most fundamental guiding principle. Explaining where true purpose lies and demystifying where it doesn't, Craig offers the methods through which anyone can find their purpose. He identifies three pathways that will assess where you are going with your purpose and where you should be going. In Leading from Purpose, Craig shares unique stories to show how top leaders are energized by their purpose, finding in it the confidence they need to properly evaluate high-stakes decisions and take the optimal action. Accessible, methodical and eminently practical, this book offers the comprehensive toolbox with which everyone - whether a c-suite executive or a behind-the-scenes office worker - can live out their purpose and achieve success on their own terms. With a foreword by Daring Greatly author Brene Brown.

Develop the mindset and presence to successfully manage others for the first time. If you read nothing else on becoming a new manager, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles and selected the most important ones to help you transition from being an outstanding individual contributor to a great manager of others. This book will inspire you to: * develop your emotional intelligence * influence your colleagues with the science of persuasion * assess your team and enhance its performance * network effectively to achieve business goals and for personal advancement * navigate relationships with employees, bosses, and peers * get support from above * view the big picture in your decision-making * balance your team's work and personal life in a high-intensity workplace

Discover how to Be Decisive - Now! This 2-in-1 guide is designed to help you become a more effective decision maker in an instant, whilst giving you the deeper knowledge to ensure long-lasting results. With the unique 2-in-1 approach, you can learn your way. Use the seven Speed Read tips immediately, then take your time exploring the Big Picture chapters. * Make the right decisions quickly and effectively * Understand the problem properly and work out your priorities * Ensure your decision is the right one and avoid the common mistakes * Know the value of risk planning and how to do it successfully * Look back to learn lessons on better decisions next time As an ambitious manager, you need the right information at the right time to help you advance in your career. The 2-in-1 Manager will ensure you improve and succeed in business, right now and in the future.

The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty. Powerful computer environments and good graphical techniques for displaying uncertainty are just two of the more advanced topics addressed in later chapters.

Brings together concepts across software engineering with a management perspectiveUse of case material to illustrate points madeIncludes checklists and working templates

A company's reputation is one of its most valuable assets, and reputational risk is high on the agenda at board level and amongst regulators. Rethinking Reputational Risk explains the hidden factors which can both cause crises and tip an otherwise survivable crisis into a reputational disaster. Reputations are lost when the perception of an organization is damaged by its behaviour not meeting stakeholder expectations. Rethinking Reputational Risk lays bare the actions, inactions and local 'states of normality' that can lead to perception-changing consequences and gives readers the insight to recognize and respond to the risks to their reputations. Using case studies, such as BP's Deepwater Horizon oil spill, Volkswagen's emissions rigging scandal, Tesco, AIG, EADS Airbus A380, and Mid-Staffordshire NHS Hospital Trust, and analysis of their failures, this hard-hitting guide also applies lessons drawn from behavioural economics to the behavioural risks that underlie reputation risk. An essential read for risk professionals, business leaders and board members who need to understand and deal with business-critical threats to their reputation, this book presents a new framework that will be invaluable for all involved in safeguarding an organization's reputation.

Risk Analysis in Finance and Insurance, Second Edition presents an accessible yet comprehensive introduction to the main concepts and methods that transform risk management into a quantitative science. Taking into account the interdisciplinary nature of risk analysis, the author discusses many important ideas from mathematics, finance, and actuarial science in a simplified manner. He explores the interconnections among these disciplines and encourages readers toward further study of the subject. This edition continues to study risks associated with financial and insurance contracts, using an approach that estimates the value of future payments based on current financial, insurance, and other information. New to the Second Edition Expanded section on the foundations of probability and stochastic analysis Coverage of new topics, including financial markets with stochastic volatility, risk measures, risk-adjusted performance measures, and equity-linked insurance More worked examples and problems Reorganized and expanded, this updated book illustrates how to use quantitative methods of stochastic analysis in modern financial mathematics. These methods can be naturally extended and applied in actuarial science, thus leading to unified methods of risk analysis and management.

`Philippe Baumard has observed that strategic success seems to lie more in top managers' ability to use tacit knowledge than in their gaining or updating explicit knowledge' - William H Starbuck, New York University

`This important new book effectively illustrates how, in conditions of ambiguity, managers `over-manage', i.e. rely too much on explicit plans and interpretations. Here, Philippe Baumard develops an alternative analysis and with it a new approach to management' - Frank Blackler, Lancaster University

This landmark book delves below the surface of organizations in order to understand the complex processes of top managers' decision making.

Philippe Baumard argues that the conventional, rational model of decision making ignores the tacit and intuitive processes that are often crucial in successful business outcomes. He demonstrates through his four central business cases how it is in times of uncertainty, rapid change and turbulence that the fate of companies is often determined, and it is at these times that managers' tacit knowledge and their ability to navigate ambiguous and complex situations is most critical.

A KMCI Press book - a definitive title from the leading, standard-setting KM organizationOnly book to describe fundamental KM concepts and theoriesApproach roots theory in current state of the procession/discipline

Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.

Originally published in 1963, this book was one of the first to explore group process and working with groups. The introductory chapter tells us that working with groups requires three skills: and understanding of theory, a knowledge of its application, and trained experience in its use. It goes on to discuss these points, helping the reader towards an understanding of group processes and making decisions in groups. This title is an early example of author's explorations of groups and group work, which were to be a major factor in the establishment of group-work practice in Britain over the following years.

Business models are the beating heart of your firm's value proposition.

Great business models drive rapid growth; bad business models can doom the most promising ventures. Brilliant Business Models clearly shows you how to create, test, adapt, and innovate successful and appropriate business models in any business context. Every company has a business model. When the business model works, the company creates value. Brilliant Business Models combines the latest research, straightforward tools and current examples to bring this surprisingly tricky topic to life. Straightforward cases from the author's research and experience highlight key lessons. This book applies a novel, life-cycle based approach to make business models relevant to your company's development stage. Your company changes over time-so should your business model.

- Understand how and why business models matter to your organisations success

- Learn how to evaluate and test business models to identify the most appropriate model

- Use the business model life-cycle approach to keep your business model relevant and successful.

In recent years leading figures in a variety of fields - political, financial, medical, and organizational - have become acutely aware of the need to effectively incorporate aspects of risk into their decision-making. This book addresses a wide range of contemporary issues in decision research, such as how individuals deal with uncertainty and complexity, gender-based differences in decision-making, what determines decision performance and why people choose risky activities.
The book presents results from academic research carried out over the last twenty years. A common theme is the study of decisions made in horserace betting markets, a research medium which offers a rich insight into decision-making in general and one which enjoys particular methodological advantages over laboratory-based simulations. This set of naturalistic studies explores the variety of individual motivations for betting, how people perceive and respond to the presence of uncertainty, the challenges of complex and turbulent information and the use of heuristics as a response, how decision-making performance is affected by structural or process-related features of the decision environment, and how men and women differ in their decision behaviour.
The authors interesting and novel findings offer a richer understanding of the psychological and economic underpinnings of betting behaviour which should inform practitioners, policymakers and regulators in an industry which is undergoing unprecedented global growth. The book is also relevant to courses covering subject areas such as financial markets, decision-making and behavioural finance.