In recent years there has been substantial interest in benefits assessment methods, especially as these methods are used to assess health, safety, and environmental issues. At least part of this interest can be traced to Executive Order 12291, issued by President Ronald Reagan in 1981. This Executive Order requires Federal agencies to perform benefits assessments of pro posed major regulations and prohibits them from taking regulatory action unless potential benefits exceed potential costs to society. Heightened interest in benefits assessment methods has in tum given rise to greater recognition of the inherent difficulties in performing such assess ments. For example, many benefits that are intuitively felt to be most important are also among the most difficult to measure. It can be difficult to identify the full range of both benefits and costs. The choice of an appro priate discount rate for comparing benefits and costs over time is proble matic. Even when benefits are quantifiable in principle and agreement can be reached on their valuation, required d, ata may not be available. Thus considerable uncertainty is built into most benefit estimates, even when they are based on the best available data. In light of the complexities and difficulties associated with the perform ance of a benefits assessment, this book reviews the current state of theoretical and methodological knowledge in the field. The review is extensive in that it covers over fifty years of research, theoretical develop ment, and practice."

Suppose you had the chance to invest in a venture that succeeds half the time. When you fail you lose your in vestment; when you succeed you make a profit of$1.60 for every $1.00 you invest. The odds are 8 to 5 in your favor and you should do well-casinos and insurance companies thrive under less favorable conditions. If you can invest as much as you like, as often as you like, using a betting system that guarantees you can't go broke, common sense suggests you will almost certainly make aprofitafteryou make a large numberofinvestments. In response to yourrequest for a hot stock yourastrologer tells you ABC Inc. will triple in a year (she's really a fraud and picked the stock at random). But since such stocks are rare (one in athousand) you consultan expert and, strangely enough, he confirms the astrologer. From experience you know that the expert diagnoses all stocks, good and bad, correctly, 90% of the time. Common sense suggests you have an excellent chance of tripling your money. You are chairman of acommittee ofthree. Decisions are made by majority rule but if there is no majority your vote as chairman breaks ties. Common sense suggests you will inevitably have more power to determine the outcome than the other members."

Much of the work in this volume was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant SES82-05112 from the Program in History and Philosophy of Science and the Division of Policy Research and Analysis. (Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. ) Several of these essays were written because of the impetus afforded by speaking invitations. An earlier version of Chapter 3 was presented in Berkeley in January 1983 at a Principal Investi gators' Conference sponsored by the National Science Foundation, Division of Policy Research and Analysis, Technology Assessment and Risk Assessment Group. In May 1982, an earlier version of Chapter 5 was presented at the meeting of the Society for Philos ophy and Technology, held in conjunction with the American Philosophical Association meeting, Western Division, in Columbus, Ohio. Finally, earlier versions of Chapter 6 were presented in Boston in December 1981 at the Boston Colloquium for the Philosophy of Science, as well as at the University of Delaware in January 1982 and at the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association held in Philadelphia in October 1982. An earlier version of this same chapter was published in Philosophy of Science Association 82, volume 1, ed. T. Nickles, Philosophy of Science Association, East Lansing, Michigan, 1982. A number of people have helped to make this book better than it might have been."

When you start a new managerial role, there is an inevitable contrast between what you believed you would find and what you're actually faced with. And Now What? helps you manage this gap between expectation and reality, ensuring that you get off to the best possible start in your new job. This book is structured in two parts, and it begins by offering readers a panoramic perspective of what a 'landing' entails in terms of personal self-leadership and managing people and uncertainty. The first part of the book reviews the process of taking charge in your new role, from preparation through to implementation. The second part presents a range of case studies arranged in order of increasing professional responsibility, allowing the reader to take a trip from the first stages of a professional leader's life to the highest responsibilities of a chairperson's role - experiencing changes, promotions, exits, internationalizations and take-offs along the way. The most important thing for a leader is not to discover how to motivate, but to better understand their reasons for motivating others. In this way, you can think of the leadership journey as both a personal and a professional adventure.

Comparative Causal Mapping: The CMAP3 Method, by Mauri Laukkanen and Mingde Wang, is an introduction to the conceptual backgrounds of causal (cognitive) mapping and to the typical methods in comparative and composite causal mapping, based on either interview or questionnaire primary data or on secondary documentary data. The discussed CCM research is supported by CMAP3, a freely downloadable (www.uef.fi/cmap3) Windows software platform for CCM studies. The book has three parts. The first discusses the theoretical underpinnings and methodological issues in causal mapping including the target phenomena and different interpretations of causal maps/mapping, the motives for using CCM methods and the criteria of method selection. The second part focuses on the technical aspects of using CMAP3 in typical CCM research. The third part presents three CCM study cases: a classical document-based study; a semi-structured interview-based (SIM) study; and a methodological study comparing SIM with an electronically administered structured hybrid CCM approach. In addition to demonstrating CCM practices, they suggest that different methods produce divergent results and are thus not substitutable. The research task should determine which CCM approach is appropriate. The book will appeal to both academic and professional audiences, in particular to doctoral students and experienced researchers looking for new topics and method approaches, but also to practitioners in fields such as management and organization studies, organizational development, public policy and education, and knowledge management.

The proceedings contain lectures and short papers presented at the NATO Advanced Study Institute on "Reliability Theory and Its Application in Structural and Soil Me chanics", Bornholm, Denmark, August 31 -September 9,1982. The proceedings are organized in two parts. The first part contains 12 papers by the invited lecturers and the second part contains 23 papers by participants plus one paper from an invited lecturer (la~e arrival). The Institute dealt with specific topics on application of modem reliability theories in structural engineering and soil mechanics. Both fundamental theory and more ad vanced theory were covered. Lecture courses were followed by tutorial and summary discussions with active participation of those attending the Institute. Special lectures of topical subjects were given by a number of invited speake~, leading to plenary dis cussions and summary statements on important aspects of application of modem .re liability theory in structural engineering and soil mechanics. A great number of the participants presented brief reports of their own research activities.

This book is a report to the Executive Board of the Rijnmond Public Authority. The report presents the results of a pilot study of the risks to the employees in, and the population around six industrial installations. The installations were selected to illustrate various materials and technologies present in this area e.g. toxic, flammable, cryogenic and pressure storage. The study was performed in close cooperation between authorities, industry and consultants. The report consists of 5 parts: Part I is the report of the Steering Committee, which managed the whole project. It contains the background, the aims of the study, conclusions, general comments and recommendations. Appendices I and 2 give information about the parties involved in the study and the screening process applied to the collected safety data respectively. Part 2, the main report by Cremer and Warner Ltd., presents the way the risk analysis of the six industrial installations was performed. All the steps necessary to carry out such an analysis are presented and discussed. The final results are given in tables showing the average number of fatalities per year both for employees and the population. Appendices I to VII contain the calculation models used (dischar ge rates, dispersion, combustion, etc.). Appendices VII to X give a historical review of incidents, fai lure rate data and meteorological data respectively. Appendix XII gives the final results of the consequence analyses and appendix XIII presents the fault trees and derivation of failure rates."

Rooted in the study of chaos and complexity, "Adaptive Action" introduces a simple, common sense process that will guide you and your organization into reflective action.
This elegant method prompts readers to engage with three deceptively simple questions: What? So what? Now what? The first leads to careful observation. The second invites you to thoughtfully consider options and implications. The third ignites effective action. Together, these questions and the tools that support them produce a dynamic and creative dance with uncertainty. The road-tested steps of adaptive action can be used to devise solutions and improve performance across multiple challenges, and they have proven to be scalable from individuals to work groups, from organizations to communities.
In addition to laying out the adaptive action framework and clear protocols to support it, Glenda H. Eoyang and Royce J. Holladay introduce best practices from exemplary professionals who have used adaptive action to meet personal, professional, and political challenges in leadership, consulting, Alzheimer's treatment, evaluation, education reform, political advocacy, and cultural engagementOCoreadying readers to employ this new toolkit to meet their own goals with a sense of ingenuity and flexibility."

Business acumen has emerged as a critical competency for communicators. But if you're a public relations, advertising or communication professional that didn't go to business school, how can you make sure you have the abilities and skills to evolve along with your role? Business Acumen for Strategic Communicators is the book for you. Offering a critical primer for the world of business, Ragas and Culp equip you with the must-have business know-how needed to understand everything from the language and thinking of C-suites and boardrooms, to organizational agility, business models, rules and regulations, the money and the numbers, and even how to read financial statements and reports. Written for communicators by communicators, the concepts in each chapter are illustrated by expert insight essays written by a diverse group of senior communications leaders, and packed full of case studies, interviews, key terms and cutting-edge research. Brands profiled include Aflac, Costco, CVS Health, Levi Strauss, Mayo Clinic, Southwest Airlines, Target and YMCA of America. With these critical business literacy skills in hand, you will be set to serve with success as strategic counselors to the organizational leaders that are your colleagues, clients, and business partners.

The Fourth International MCDM Conference follows a tradition that began with an exploratory gathering at the University of South Carolina in 1973. The First International Conference was held in Jouy-en-Josas in 1975. The second and third were held in Buffalo (1977) and KOnigswinter (1979). We are grateful to the Office of Naval Research for years of advice and funding, and to Springer-Verlag for providing a widely dispersed series of proceedings volumes. In the case of the Delaware Conference we gratefully acknowledge new support from the corporate sector, coordinated by the University of Delaware's Development Office. Now that I have attended to the formal recognitions, I wish to place my recollection of the human side of the conference into the record. This is justi fiable because multiple criteria problem solving has been nurtured by a close-knit group of people whose interactions are not fully captured by the standard journal format. This was the conference in which an animated discussion between Dave, Bell and Paul Schoemaker caused Mathilde Stephenson to stand up and say, "Don't stop it; this is the best part of the conference. " Another sort of moment occurred when Lucas Pun was asked to explain a certain Chinese character in one of his transpar encies. He replied, "No alcohol allowed. " From Erick Duesing, speaking with an historical perspective, we had the insight that multiple criteria methods lan guished because "McCarthyism had made planning suspect."

This volume constitutes the papers and discussions from a symposium on "Societal Risk Assessment: How Safe is Safe Enough?" held at the General Motors Research Laboratories on October 8-9, 1979. This symposium was the twenty-fourth in an annual series sponsored by the Research Laboratories. Initi ated in 1957, these symposia have as their objective the promotion of the interchange ofknowledge among specialists from many allied disciplines in rapidly developing or changing areas ofscience or technology. Attendees characteristically represent the academic, government, and industrial institutions that are noted for their ongoing activities in the particular area of interest. The objective of this symposium was to develop a balanced view of the current status of societal risk assessment's role in the public policy process and then to establish, if possible, future directions of research. Accordingly, the symposium was structured in two dimensions; certainty versus uncertainty and the subjective versus the objective. Furthermore, people representing extremely diverse discip lines concerned with the perception, quantification, and abatement of risks were brought together to provide an environment that stimulated the exchange of ideas and experiences. The keys to this exchange were the invited papers, arranged into four symposium sessions. These papers appear in this volume in the order of their presentation. The discussions that in turn followed from the papers are also included."

Proceedings of a Symposium on Heavy Gas, Frankfurt am Main, September 3-4, 1979

Das Buch von Konfliktexperte Timo MA1/4ller soll FA1/4hrungskrAfte dazu befAhigen, im Konfliktkontext frA1/4hzeitig mit Erfolg zu intervenieren: im Vorfeld der Konfliktentstehung, um unnAtige Konflikte ganz zu verhindern, und in der Situation der Konfliktentstehung, um einer mAglichen, emotionalen Eskalation vorzubeugen. Der Erfolg der frA1/4hzeitigen Intervention zeigt sich zum einen daran, dass die ProduktivitAt/Wirtschaftlichkeit des betreffenden Teams bzw. der Abteilung sich nicht verschlechtert und gegebenenfalls sogar erhAht wird. Das meint im Detail: eine stabil bleibende oder hAhere Arbeitsmotivation bei den Konfliktbeteiligten und weniger Fehlzeiten durch tatsAchliche oder vorgetAuschte Krankheiten. AuA erdem wird in diesem Fall A1/4ber eine grAA ere Mitarbeiterzufriedenheit eine erhAhte Mitarbeiterbindung ans Unternehmen erreicht. Es sind weniger Personalressourcen fA1/4r die Austragung eskalierender Konflikte gebunden und es gibt weniger mitarbeiter-initiierte KA1/4ndigungen. Zum anderen fA1/4hrt das rechtzeitige Eingreifen zu weniger negativem Stress, zu weniger (psychischer) Gewalt am Arbeitsplatz und zu besseren zwischenmenschlichen Beziehungen in Team bzw. Abteilung. Der Respekt und das Vertrauen untereinander wAchst. Um dieses Ziel zu erreichen, werden im Buch konkrete Kenntnisse - produktive Haltungen und Perspektiven sowie Handlungsempfehlungen - vermittelt, die sich beim Umgang mit Konflikten im Berufsalltag um- bzw. einsetzen lassen.

"The Ostrich Paradox boldly addresses a key question of our time: Why are we humans so poor at dealing with disastrous risks, and what can we humans do about it? It is a must-read for everyone who cares about risk." -Daniel Kahneman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics and author of Thinking, Fast and Slow We fail to evacuate when advised. We rebuild in flood zones. We don't wear helmets. We fail to purchase insurance. We would rather avoid the risk of "crying wolf" than sound an alarm. Our ability to foresee and protect against natural catastrophes has never been greater; yet, we consistently fail to heed the warnings and protect ourselves and our communities, with devastating consequences. What explains this contradiction? In The Ostrich Paradox, Wharton professors Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther draw on years of teaching and research to explain why disaster preparedness efforts consistently fall short. Filled with heartbreaking stories of loss and resilience, the book addresses: *How people make decisions when confronted with high-consequence, low-probability events-and how these decisions can go awry *The 6 biases that lead individuals, communities, and institutions to make grave errors that cost lives *The Behavioral Risk Audit, a systematic approach for improving preparedness by recognizing these biases and designing strategies that anticipate them *Why, if we are to be better prepared for disasters, we need to learn to be more like ostriches, not less Fast-reading and critically important, The Ostrich Paradox is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand why we consistently underprepare for disasters, as well as private and public leaders, planners, and policy-makers who want to build more prepared communities.

- Bietet einen Planungsansatz fur die optimale Nutzung der Informationstechnologie zur erfolgreichen Umsetzung der Unternehmensstrategie - Zeigt, wie man UEberraschungen bei unvorhergesehenen oder schlecht gemanagten Aktivitaten vermeiden kann - Erklart, warum Topmanager ihren Ansatz im Finanzmanagement andern sollten, um ihr Unternehmen schneller und praziser modellieren zu koennen - Fallstudien veranschaulichen "Best Practices", die zur erfolgreichen Optimierung von Finanzprozessen fuhrten

NGO managers in the developing world play a crucial role in reaching diverse high-risk groups. Yet to date there has been no empirical study of what makes these managers effective. Here Farhad Analoui and Shehnaz Kazi present the first qualitative, empirical insights into this key question. Focusing specifically on managers of HIV/AIDS NGOs in India - one of the world's largest developing nations - this book considers how such managers are perceived by outsiders, how their work is or could be influenced by government-level intervention or international-policy-level drivers such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals, and how such managers perceive issues that influence their ability to manage their organisations effectively. Through individual, collective, and focus-group interviews with managers and staff at four NGOs, the authors build a startlingly rich picture of aid workers' and managers' fears and hopes. From this data, the authors confirm eight parameters of effectiveness, three interrelated contextual factors, and discover a culturally adjusted new framework for analysis of the NGO managers behaviour at work. For its wealth of qualitative empirical data with broad-ranging implications for all developing countries, Managing NGOs in the Developing World is a must-read for researchers, students, and practitioners interested in the intersections between human resource management, international development, and sustainable development.

Optimizing Digital Strategy explores the choices facing organizations in the rapidly changing world of technology-enabled business. From performance marketing through to personalization, on-demand retailing and AI, this book maps out commercial and customer-focused challenges and explains how leaders can get the most out of their digital strategies. Rather than rushing headlong into adopting the latest digital platforms, tools and technologies, the book challenges leaders to step back from the demands for constant investment in new technology and drive better returns from existing assets.

Presenting a sustainable model of e-commerce that is appropriate to any individual organization's needs, Optimizing Digital Strategy addresses the repetitive dilemma between even more investment in technology and the need to improve margins and grow revenue. Illustrated by the authors' own digital work for global brands such as The Economist, Sky, O2, Regus, the Financial Times, Lidl and L.K.Bennett, this book shows how to balance the need to remain competitive, fully deliver customer expectations, and put resources behind investments that will deliver the best return.

This book helps readers develop a comprehensive understanding of diagnostics for strategic decision-making, with a focus on a method called rapid due diligence. This method presents a compelling solution to the need for effective diagnostics, drawing on academic rigor, critical thinking, systems dynamics, and advanced practicum to enable sound strategic decision-making. Guiding the reader through the six stages of the process from discovery, through analysis, synthesis, and interpretation, Thompsen engages all typical postgraduate disciplines in producing insights for practical application. Drawing on similarities with applied social science research, the rapid due diligence method is supported with scores of techniques, tools, instructions, guidelines, practical advice, and examples. Detailed cases and abbreviated examples of a variety of real strategic situations are provided from organizations operating in North America, Europe, Asia, India, and Australia. Ideal for graduate students, organizational leaders, and decision makers, this book is designed to invite deeper understanding and practical application of a strategic diagnostic process that discovers insights for achieving positive results.

Praise for The PSYCHOLOGY of RISK

"The Psychology of Risk is equally vital for everyone from the day trader to short-term online trader to long-term investor. A clear, enjoyable insight into what makes trading success."
–Alpesh B. Patel, Financial Times columnist and author of Trading Online

"Once again Dr. Kiev delivers a book that should be read cover to cover and kept as a reference. The Psychology of Risk explores the elements of risk taking as they relate to the human psyche."
–John Floyd, Director, Proprietary Trading, Deutsche Bank AG

"In 2000 and 2001, benchmark U.S. equity indices experienced the worst two-year performance since the bear market of 1973—74. Among the winners in this tumultuous market environment were those that invested with short time horizons rather than those that utilized a rigid buy-and-hold ‘one decision’ philosophy. Against this backdrop, Kiev, in his familiar pull-no-punches style, delivers an insightful, timely, and pragmatic thesis that focuses on the inner game of trading: psychology, discipline, and the holy grail–timing. A captivating read for those in search of a performance edge."
–Ciaran T. O’Kelly, Head of Equity Trading, Salomon Smith Barney

"Ari has proven himself to be a keen coach of world-class traders. The Psychology of Risk is a great read for those looking to better understand what it takes to put oneself at risk in the market."
–Kevin Becker, CIO, Claiborne Capital Management, LP

"Ari Kiev has done it again. One of Wall Street’s preeminent trading coaches, he explores some useful principles of risk taking which will help traders to take their game to the next level."
Jay Goldman, Hedge Fund Manager, Goldman & Co., LP

You'll get there faster if you just slow down Master Your Mind offers a bit of perspective and a lot of insight for anyone seeking long-term success. Success in business is spelled M-O-R-E: better results, faster growth, more revenue, greater efficiency. Do more. Make more. Achieve more. And do it now. Eventually, ambition turns to stress, then to frenzy, then to emptiness as once-ambitious workers endlessly trudge the hamster wheel chasing the next promotion. While top-level performance is the holy grail of business at all levels, there is another, much better way to achieve it: slow down. Yes, you read that right--S-L-O-W. This is your permission to jump off of the hamster wheel. Slowing down is not a luxury, it is a necessity. A frenetic brain simply doesn't perform at optimal levels. By maintaining a snail's pace, you actually achieve better results--at rocket speed--because you're firing on all cylinders. You'll think of new things, approach old problems from new perspectives, and breathe a breath of fresh air into everything you do. This book shows you how to achieve this state of steady, sustainable fire, and how to get further by crawling than you ever did while attempting to fly. Learn how slowing down can lead to better, faster results Achieve optimal performance thought patterns Enhance your creativity and effectiveness Build energy, revenue, and good health in a self-sustaining way You know you're capable of more, but the stress is eating away at your body, your brain, and your soul. Relax, take a deep breath, and buckle down. Clear your mind, and then put it to work. Stop juggling and start doing. Master Your Mind shows you how to supercharge your trajectory by taking it S-L-O-W.

The ebook edition of this title is Open Access, thanks to Knowledge Unlatched funding, and freely available to read online. Corporate executives immersed in the turbulent markets of today face a world not of clear cut moral dilemmas such as right or wrong, or good or evil, but instead must confront large corporate grey areas of lesser good, lesser evil, less true, less unfair, and less unjust. Often these choices become almost indistinguishable. Corporate Ethics for Turbulent Markets: Executive Response to Market Challenges sets out a universal moral foundation of corporate executive ethics. Its chapters attempt to extend the discussion on human dignity to its practical applications, map out strategic approaches for responding to current turbulent markets, and drill moral skills for taming and tapping current turbulent markets. The book features modern techniques of critical thinking, moral reasoning, moral judgment, and moral justification, and charts how to uphold stakeholder rights and duties and understand corporate moral responsibilities. Written as a guide for corporate executives who strive daily not only to be legal in all they decide, choose and do, but to also be ethical, moral, and even spiritual, the book provides skills and insights that are urgently needed to fathom and capitalize upon in the turbulent markets of today.