Clearly, concisely, and with many examples from public and private enterprise, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball shows why predictions are usually wrong and presents a better way to look at the future-forecasting. This book is essential-reading for anyone who needs to make the best possible strategic decisions for moving an organization forward in today's rapidly changing environment. Dr. Bauer supplies an insightful comparison of the two mainstream approaches for looking ahead. Although predicting and forecasting are usually used as synonyms for a single process, they are conceptually and methodologically quite different. He explains why everyday failure to operationalize these differences robs us of power to envision and pursue good futures, especially when we are headed in the wrong direction. Readers will learn the real-world value of distinguishing between predicting (extrapolating historical trends) and forecasting (estimating the probabilities of possibilities). Following a description of predictive modeling and a discussion of five reasons why it fails so often in current applications, Dr. Bauer explains the superiority of forecasting and how to do it. To complete readers' understanding of the many compelling reasons for making the shift from predicting to forecasting, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball presents a practical approach to strategic planning in unpredictable times. It concludes with an analysis of the future of big data and its likely impact on the future. Dr. Bauer is uniquely qualified to write this important book; he is trained in both predicting (economics) and forecasting (meteorology). Author of more than 250 publications, he is internationally recognized not only for long-term success in foretelling the future of medical science and health care, but also for successful innovations to create a better delivery system. This book distills the lessons garnered over his 40 year career as economist and futurist into a guide that other leaders can use to avoid problems and create better options in any realm. The book includes a foreword by Dr. Stan Gryskiewicz, author of Positive Turbulence.

This book provides a detailed examination of the complex negotiation processes surrounding intergovernmental conferences in the European Union. Since the Treaty of Amsterdam (1997) and its 'appendix', the Treaty of Nice in 2002, any reform of the constitutional framework of the European Union experiences formidable difficulties. By presenting an extensive study of the Intergovernmental Conference of 1996/7 prior to the Treaty of Amsterdam, the authors argue that these negotiations reveal major challenges of European integration. They contend that multi-level negotiations require an appropriate coordination of informal administrative networks and the empowerment of administrative leadership, with these factors significantly shaping the dynamics and outcomes of negotiations. Through these findings, this book lays down the foundation for future evidence-based support and evaluation of multilateral negotiations, and delivers new insights on decision-making within the European Union. It draws on advanced statistical methods and network analysis. European Union Intergovernmental Conferences will be of interest to students and researchers of political science, sociology, administrative science, business and management studies, international law and European law.

1 Introduction.- 2 Review of Ordinary Least Squares and Generalized Least Squares.- 3 Point Estimation and Tests of Hypotheses in Small Samples.- 4 Large Sample Point Estimation and Tests of Hypotheses.- 5 Stochastic Regressors.- 6 Use of Prior Information.- 7 Preliminary Test and Stein-Rule Estimators.- 8 Feasible Generalized Least Squares Estimation.- 9 Heteroscedasticity.- 10 Autocorrelation.- 11 Lagged Dependent Variables and Autcorrelation.- 12 Unobservable Variables.- 13 Multicollinearity.- 14 Varying Coefficient Models.- 15 Models That Combine Time-Series and Cross-Section Data.- 16 The Analysis of Models with Qualitative or Censored Dependent Variables.- 17 Distributed Lags.- 18 Uncertainty in Model Specification and Selection.- 19 Introduction to Simultaneous Equations Models.- 20 Identification.- 21 Limited Information Estimation.- 22 Full Information Estimation.- 23 Reduced Form Estimation and Prediction in Simultaneous Equations Models.- 24 Properties of Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Models.- 25 Special Topics in Simultaneous Equations.- Appendix Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Statistical Models.- A.1 Nonlinear Optimization.- A.1.1 Method of Steepest Ascent.- A.1.2 The Method of Newton.- A.1.3 Method of Quadratic Hill Climbing.- A.1.4 Numerical Differentiation.- A.2 Maximum Likelihood Estimation.- A.2.1 Use of the Method of Newton.- A.2.2 Method of Scoring.- A.2.3 The Method of Berndt, Hall, Hall, and Hausman.- A.2.4 Asymptotic Tests Based on the Maximum Likelihood Method.- A.2.4a The Wald Test.- A.2.4b The Lagrange-Multiplier Test.- A.2.4c The Likelihood Ratio Test Statistic.- A.2.4d Concluding Remarks.- A.3 Nonlinear Regression.- A.4 Summary and Guide to Further Readings.- A.5 References.

Creativity directly impacts results and productivity, yet few of us understand how it happens or how to put it into practice. This book shows you not only how to get things done, but how to do them better and more creatively. The Creative Thinking Handbook provides the correct application for creative thinking and action, by offering clear, practical tools and strategies so that you can develop creative thinking skills and help find brilliant solutions for any professional challenge. Based on research and proven-to-work creative thinking models, Chris Griffiths and Melina Costi present a clear introduction to what creative thinking is, explain why we all need to do it and will help you generate ideas and make better decisions. The Creative Thinking Handbook gets you to think differently by thinking creatively.

Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is the study of methods and procedures by which concerns about multiple conflicting criteria can be formally incorporated into the management planning process. A key area of research in OR/MS, MCDM is now being applied in many new areas, including GIS systems, AI, and group decision making. This volume is in effect the third in a series of Springer books by these editors (all in the ISOR series), and it brings all the latest developments in MCDM into focus. Looking at developments in the applications, methodologies and foundations of MCDM, it presents research from leaders in the field on such topics as Problem Structuring Methodologies; Measurement Theory and MCDA; Recent Developments in Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization; Habitual Domains and Dynamic MCDM in Changeable Spaces; Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis; and many more chapters.

Offering a planned approach for determining cause and effect, DOE Simplified: Practical Tools for Effective Experimentation, Third Edition integrates the authors' decades of combined experience in providing training, consulting, and computational tools to industrial experimenters. Supplying readers with the statistical means to analyze how numerous variables interact, it is ideal for those seeking breakthroughs in product quality and process efficiency via systematic experimentation. Following in the footsteps of its bestselling predecessors, this edition incorporates a lively approach to learning the fundamentals of the design of experiments (DOE). It lightens up the inherently dry complexities with interesting sidebars and amusing anecdotes. The book explains simple methods for collecting and displaying data and presents comparative experiments for testing hypotheses. Discussing how to block the sources of variation from your analysis, it looks at two-level factorial designs and covers analysis of variance. It also details a four-step planning process for designing and executing experiments that takes statistical power into consideration. This edition includes a major revision of the software that accompanies the book (via download) and sets the stage for introducing experiment designs where the randomization of one or more hard-to-change factors can be restricted. Along these lines, it includes a new chapter on split plots and adds coverage of a number of recent developments in the design and analysis of experiments. Readers have access to case studies, problems, practice experiments, a glossary of terms, and a glossary of statistical symbols, as well as a series of dynamic online lectures that cover the first several chapters of the book.

Don't let a fear of numbers hold you back.Today's business environment brings with it an onslaught of data, but leaving the analysis to others in your company just won't cut it. Now more than ever, managers must know how to tease insight from data--to understand where it comes from, make sense of the numbers, and use those findings to inform their toughest decisions. But how do you get started?Whether you're working with data experts or running your own tests, you'll find answers in the HBR Guide to Data Analytics Basics for Managers. This book describes a three-step process to get the information you need, study the data, and communicate your findings to others.You'll learn how to:Identify the metrics you need to measureFormulate hypotheses and test against themAsk the right questions of your data expertsUnderstand statistical terms and conceptsCreate effective charts and visualizationsAvoid common mistakes

"The best education in grand strategy available in a single volume . . . a book that should be read by every American leader or would-be leader."-The Wall Street Journal A master class in strategic thinking, distilled from the legendary program the author has co-taught at Yale for decades John Lewis Gaddis, the distinguished historian of the Cold War, has for almost two decades co-taught grand strategy at Yale University with his colleagues Charles Hill and Paul Kennedy. Now, in On Grand Strategy, Gaddis reflects on what he has learned. In chapters extending from the ancient world through World War II, Gaddis assesses grand strategic theory and practice in Herodotus, Thucydides, Sun Tzu, Octavian/Augustus, St. Augustine, Machiavelli, Elizabeth I, Philip II, the American Founding Fathers, Clausewitz, Tolstoy, Lincoln, Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Isaiah Berlin. On Grand Strategy applies the sharp insights and wit readers have come to expect from Gaddis to times, places, and people he's never written about before. For anyone interested in the art of leadership, On Grand Strategy is, in every way, a master class.

From the multimillion-copy bestselling author of "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People"--hailed as the #1 Most Influential Business Book of the Twentieth Century--"The 3rd Alternative "turns Dr. Stephen R. Covey's formidable insight to a powerful new way to resolve professional and personal difficulties and create solutions to great challenges in organizations and society.
There are many methods of "conflict resolution," but most involve compromise, a low-level accommodation that stops the fight without breaking through to amazing new results. "The 3rd Alternative "introduces a breakthrough approach to conflict resolution and creative problem solving, transcending traditional solutions to conflict by forging a path toward a third option, a 3rd Alternative that moves beyond your way or my way to a higher and better way--one that allows both parties to emerge from debate or even heated conflict in a far better place than either had envisioned. With the 3rd Alternative, nobody has to give up anything, and everyone wins.

Familiar modes of problem solving may be efficient, but they often prevent us from discovering innovative solutions to more complex problems. To create meaningful change, we must train ourselves to discover previously unseen variables in day-to-day challenges. The Design of Insight is intended to be a personal problem-solving platform for decision makers and advisors who seek answers to critical business questions. It introduces an approach that uses multiple "problem-solving languages" to systematically expand our understanding of problem framing and high quality problem solving. Useful as a critical thinking approach or a think-out-loud document for strategic teams, this brief is a resource for enriching and implementing thoughtful management practices.

DECISIONS focuses on how organizations can improve decision-making processes to improve organizational performance in a global economy. * Presents research related to problems associated with meeting requirements, schedules, and costs * Defines the scope of macro and micro decisions * Raises the issue of the role of engineering, manufacturing, and marketing in making organizational decisions * Includes references to Peter Drucker s studies on decision-making

The COVID-19 pandemic provides an illustration of how chaotic changes to large systems are caused by small, seemingly insignificant environmental events such as the initial case(s) of COVID-19 in China. From this small starting point for the pandemic, there have been (and continue to be) millions of lives lost and trillions of dollars spent trying to alleviate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. World government and corporate leaders are striving to deal with this pandemic, but uncertainty is felt across the globe. Unprecedented strategies (e.g., the United States government's multi-trillion-dollar stimulus package (s)) have been used to halt the spread of COVID-19. These small events cascade throughout larger and larger systems leading to unforeseeable consequences. Organizations must experiment and make decisions on how to react. Decisions must be made and implemented to see what the effects of these decisions are. The chapters in this volume provide important insights for all organizations during this time of crisis. The chapters express bottomup and top-down approaches to a crisis-initiating environmental change by organizations. The chapters provide insight into the way organizations perceive the effect of COVID-19 as 1) a permanent or transitory change in the organization's environment; and 2) as a crisis or opportunity. Taken together, the chapters provide both scientists and practitioners with a starting point for understanding the impact of COVID-19 on organizational theory and on management practice for readers.

Add value with every decision using a simple yet powerful framework Few things are as valuable in business, and in life, as the ability to make good decisions. Can you imagine how much more rewarding your life and your business would be if every decision you made were the best it could be? Decision Quality empowers you to make the best possible choice and get more of what you truly want from every decision. Dr. Carl Spetzler is a leader in the field of decision science and has worked with organizations across industries to improve their decision-making capabilities. He and his co-authors, all experienced consultants and educators in this field, show you how to frame a problem or opportunity, create a set of attractive alternatives, identify relevant uncertain information, clarify the values that are important in the decision, apply tools of analysis, and develop buy-in among stakeholders. Their straightforward approach is elegantly simple, yet practical and powerful. It can be applied to all types of decisions. Our business and our personal lives are marked by a stream of decisions. Some are small. Some are large. Some are life-altering or strategic. How well we make those decisions truly matters. This book gives you a framework and thinking tools that will help you to improve the odds of getting more of what you value from every choice. You will learn: * The six requirements for decision quality, and how to apply them * The difference between a good decision and a good outcome * Why a decision can only be as good as the best of the available alternatives * Methods for making both "significant" and strategic decisions * The mental traps that undermine decision quality and how to avoid them * How to deal with uncertainty a factor in every important choice * How to judge the quality of a decision at the time you're making it * How organizations have benefited from building quality into their decisions. Many people are satisfied with 'good enough' when making important decisions. This book provides a method that will take you and your co-workers beyond 'good enough' to true Decision Quality.

Today's working world has become excessively demanding due to the globalisation of businesses, increasing competition, accelerated technological progress, more sophisticated and informed customers as well as a continuous need to increase innovative abilities to remain competitive. Employees with their skills, knowledge and engagement form the competitive advantage and therefore significantly contribute to the overall organisational success. Therefore, a company's ability to efficiently attract the right Generation Y talents - a culturally diverse workforce born after 1980 - through efficient target group-oriented employer branding strategies is gaining in importance. This book examines the influence of the two main phenomena - cultural and generational - on shaping the employment expectations of 459 university graduates in Economics and Business Administration of two different nationalities. Using the methods of moderated multiple regressions and simple slopes analysis, the author develops an explicit conceptual framework for examining different influences that shape employment expectations of a diverse Gen Y workforce in an international context. These expectations should be viewed as a starting point for every employer branding campaign.

We live in a complex world. We are constantly challenged by issues that seem at first to be simple, but on reflection turn out to have complicated causes and consequences that can dramatically affect our lives. Often, getting a handle on what the issues are is half the battle. Imagine a tool that can help you unravel the complexity of the decision-making labyrinth, a process that would allow you to:

• Make sense of challenging situations
• Tackle a large number of ideas and their interconnections
• Evaluate and explore values, goals, strategies and actions
• Link strategic thinking to action
• Develop effective action plans in response to the issues
• Create shared meaning and agreement
• Communicate strategies in ways that can be easily understood and acted upon
• Make people understand why an action is important and how they can help
• Help you move from 'winging it' to creating integrated strategies that are robust, both today and in the future, for your firm

The causal mapping process is illustrated through a series of real cases - from tackling personal problems to strategy-change efforts in business, public and not-for-profit organizations. The cases are usedto present a comprehensive set of process guidelines designed to help you create your own action-oriented causal maps.

'Mapping has worked very well in enabling us get to grips with major decisions. The process brings issues and underlying assumptions to the surface, using the diverse perspectives of all members of the group. Then, most helpfully, it structures contributions so that the group reaches a shared understanding and can see the whole, rich picture.' Ros Micklem, Principal, Cardonald College, Glasgow, Scotland

'Bryson, Ackermann, Eden and Finn beautifully convert the bland noun "map" into the vivid managerial verb, "to map," and in doing so define a unique managerial capability that can provide new sources of order and meaning in chaotic times.' Karl E. Weick, Rensis Likert Distinguished University Professor of Organizational Behavior and Psychology, University of Michigan Business School, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

In this groundbreaking book, Tim Harford, the Undercover Economist, shows us a new and inspiring approach to solving the most pressing problems in our lives. When faced with complex situations, we have all become accustomed to looking to our leaders to set out a plan of action and blaze a path to success. Harford argues that today's challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinion; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must "adapt."

Deftly weaving together psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, physics, and economics, along with the compelling story of hard-won lessons learned in the field, Harford makes a passionate case for the importance of adaptive trial and error in tackling issues such as climate change, poverty, and financial crises--as well as in fostering innovation and creativity in our business and personal lives.

Taking us from corporate boardrooms to the deserts of Iraq, "Adapt "clearly explains the necessary ingredients for turning failure into success. It is a breakthrough handbook for surviving--and prospering-- in our complex and ever-shifting world.

Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? How much can CEO's impact the performance of their companies? And does higher pay incentivize people to work hard?
If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life--explanation that seem obvious once we know the answer--are less useful than they seem.
Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.
It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to have been driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these "influencers" in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals.
Only by understanding how and when common sense fails, Watts argues, can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present--an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.

From three partners at Google Ventures, a unique five-day process for solving tough problems, proven at more than a hundred companies.

Entrepreneurs and leaders face big questions every day: What’s the most important place to focus your effort, and how do you start? What will your idea look like in real life? How many meetings and discussions does it take before you can be sure you have the right solution?

Now there’s a surefire way to answer these important questions: the sprint. Designer Jake Knapp created the five-day process at Google, where sprints were used on everything from Google Search to Google X. He joined Braden Kowitz and John Zeratsky at Google Ventures, and together they have completed more than a hundred sprints with companies in mobile, e-commerce, healthcare, finance, and more.

A practical guide to answering critical business questions, Sprint is a book for teams of any size, from small startups to Fortune 100s, from teachers to nonprofits. It’s for anyone with a big opportunity, problem, or idea who needs to get answers today.

Today's ever more complex world creates challenges for decision makers. This volume reviews the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic environments, and the various modeling approaches. Beginning with a discussion of the underlying concepts, theories and empirical evidence, the book gives you a range of practical tools and techniques for decision making in complex environments and systems.

The Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making comprehensively surveys theory and research on organizational decision-making, broadly conceived. Emphasizing psychological perspectives, while encompassing the insights of economics, political science, and sociology, it provides coverage at the individual, group, organizational, and inter-organizational levels of analysis. In-depth case studies illustrate the practical implications of the work surveyed. Each chapter is authored by one or more leading scholars, thus ensuring that this Handbook is an authoritative reference work for academics, researchers, advanced students, and reflective practitioners concerned with decision-making in the areas of Management, Psychology, and HRM.

For undergraduate and graduate level courses that combines introductory statistics with data analysis or decision modeling. A pragmatic approach to statistics, data analysis and decision modeling. Statistics, Data Analysis & Decision Modeling focuses on the practical understanding of its topics, allowing readers to develop conceptual insight on fundamental techniques and theories. Evans' dedication to present material in a simple and straightforward fashion is ideal for student comprehension.

Increasingly, environmental decision making is like playing a multidimensional game of chess. With interactions between the atmosphere, the litho-hydrosphere, and the biosphere, the game is at once a measure of complexity, uncertainty, interdisciplinary acuity, social-environmental sustainability, and social justice for all generations. As such, it demands a systemic point of view. Decision Making for a Sustainable Environment: A Systemic Approach gives readers the tools to replace the dysfunctional, symptomatic decision making that has plunged the world into environmental crises with a systemic approach that fosters social-environmental sustainability. A New Paradigm for Environmental Decision Making Based on the author's more than 45 years of research and broad, international experience, this book guides policy makers and managers to work with-rather than within-theoretical and methodological frameworks to achieve multidimensional and multilayered policy decisions. It discusses systemic thinking as a rational, viable alternative to competitive, materialistic, and symptomatic decision making. Insights, Approaches, and Examples for Leadership Organized into three parts, the book begins by describing the inviolable biophysical principles that define the limitations of human choices. The second part examines in depth why the conventional command-and-control form of decision making tends to become dysfunctional and fails. It also explains how to break the cycle of such behavior. A case study by Jessica K. La Porte explores the challenges of creating a program of environmentally sustainable decision making. The third part of the book explores what it takes to be a psychologically mature decision maker. A Peaceful Path toward Social-Environmental Sustainability for All Generations Proposing new ways of thinking and problem solving, this book provides readers with the ideas, language, approaches, and examples to move toward genuine social-environmental sustainability. It offers counsel on how to be a psychologically mature trustee of planet Earth and leave a more viable legacy for future generations.

Businesses often find themselves trapped in a competitive dogfight, scratching and clawing for market share with products consumers view as largely undifferentiated. Conventional wisdom suggests that dogfights are to be expected as marketplaces mature, giving rise to the notion that there are "bad" industries where it is unlikely that any company can succeed. But there are notable exceptions in which enlightened executives have changed the rules to grasp the holy grail of business: long-term profitable growth. Rather than joining the dogfights raging within their industry, companies such as Apple, FedEx, and Starbucks have chosen to become metaphorical cats, continuously renewing their distinctive strategies to compete on their own terms. In If You're in a Dogfight, Become a Cat, Leonard Sherman draws on four decades of experience in management consulting, venture capital, and teaching business strategy at Columbia Business School to share practical advice on two of the most vexing issues facing business executives: why is it so hard to achieve long-term profitable growth, and what can companies do to break away from the pack? Sherman takes the reader on a provocative journey through the building blocks of business strategy by challenging conventional wisdom on a number of questions that will redefine management best practices: -What should be the overarching purpose of your business? -Do you really know what your strategy is? -Is there such a thing as a bad industry? -Where do great ideas come from and how do I find them? -What makes products meaningfully different? -What makes and breaks great brands? -How and when should I disrupt my own company? -What are the imperatives to achieving long-term profitable growth? Filled with dozens of illustrative examples of inspiring successes and dispiriting falls from grace, this book provides deep insights on how to become the cat in a dogfight, whether you are a CEO, mid-level manager, aspiring business school student, or curious observer interested in achieving sustained profitable growth.

Collaborative decision making processes are a form of communication inside organizations. Their functioning can teach lessons for the design of electronic office systems. Those processes are open ended and therefore decide themselves on their form. Like oral deliberations which cannot be modelled in advance any open ended communication process needs means for common control over the further advancement and the ending of the process.

The history of German administrative practice and its special methods of using disposals for the control of common processes shows the creation of records as based on communication needs generated by the intention of joint actions. For electronic decision making processes the purposes remain the same, but the means have to follow the effects of electronic communication on messages.

The book is a reworked English version of a thesis for the official qualification for university professorship accepted by the German University of Administrative Sciences Speyer. Germany.